White House Director of Trade and Manufacturing policy Peter Navarro discusses the revamp of the KORUS trade deal with South Korea. In addition Navarro discusses the ongoing Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, as well as plans to impose tariffs on Chinese products surrounding violations of intellectual-property rights.
[NOTE: Final USTR 301 Report on China was released last night]
It was only six months ago when the international media and U.S. left-wing pundits were proclaiming how we were on the cusp of thermonuclear war with North Korea. As outlined HERE there was almost no-one paying attention to the approach taken by President Donald Trump to creating the “Magnanimous Panda” outcome.
Well, today those same media are reporting on North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and committing to a denuclearized Korean peninsular:
SEOUL, March 28 (Yonhap) — North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has visited China at the invitation of President Xi Jinping and reaffirmed his commitment to denuclearization during their first summit, the two countries’ media said Wednesday.
The North’s leader made an “unofficial” visit to China from Sunday to Wednesday, accompanied by his wife Ri Sol-ju and key officials, including de facto No. 2 figure Choe Ryong-hae, according to the North’s state-run radio.
It was Kim’s first foreign trip since he took office in late 2011. The summit came as Kim plans to meet the leaders of South Korea and the United States in the coming months. (read more)
Well, well, well,…. doesn’t this look like the “Magnanimous Panda” outcome previously discussed?
August 2017 […] The end result will be Kim Jong-un giving up his nuclear ambitions for good; a group of nations promising economic assistance (size TBD), and some official enterprise of ASEAN partners enters as an agency to oversee nuclear compliance under carefully negotiated terms. Big Panda (Xi Jinping) promises the world to be the magnanimous insurance policy therein. Everything between now and that outcome is optically chaff and countermeasures. SEE HERE and HERE
Funny how that works?...
“complicated business folks,…. complicated business”..
…. And likely no-one in media will ever recognize exactly how it all came together.
China’s objective is conquest. China’s tool for conquest is economics. President Trump’s entire geopolitical strategy, using economics in a similar way, is an existential threat to China’s endeavor. Communist Beijing calls the proverbial DPRK shots.
President Trump is putting on a MASSIVE economic squeeze.
♦Squeeze #1. Trump and Mnuchin just sanctioned Venezuela and cut off their access to expanded state owned oil revenue. Venezuela now needs more money. China and Russia are already leveraged to the gills in Venezuela and hold 49% of Citgo as collateral for loans outstanding. Now China and Russia will need to loan more, directly.
♦Squeeze #2. China’s geopolitical ally, Russia, is already squeezed with losses in energy revenue because of President Trump’s approach toward oil, LNG and coal. Trump, through allies including Saudi Arabia, EU, France (North Africa energy), and domestic production has driven down energy prices. Meanwhile Russia is bleeding out financially in Syria. Iran is the financial reserve, but they too are energy price dependent.
♦Squeeze #3. Trump and Tillerson just put Pakistan on notice they need to get involved in bringing their enabled tribal “extremists” (Taliban) to the table in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s primary investor and economic partner is China. If U.S. pulls or reduces financial support to pressure Pakistan toward a political solution in Afghanistan, China has to fill void.
♦Squeeze #4. China’s primary economic threat (competition) is next door in India. President Trump has just embraced India as leverage over China in trade and pledged ongoing favorable trade deals. The play is MFN (Most Favored Nation) trade status might flip from China to India. That’s a big play.
♦Squeeze #5. President Trump has launched a USTR Section 301 Trade Investigation into China’s theft of intellectual property. This encompasses every U.S. entity that does manufacturing business with China, particularly aeronautics and technology, and also reaches into the financial services sector.
♦Squeeze #6. President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Robert Lighthizer are renegotiating NAFTA. One of the primary objectives of team U.S.A. is to close the 3rd party loopholes, including dumping and origination, that China uses to gain backdoor access to the U.S. market and avoid trade/tariff restrictions. [China sends parts to Mexico and Canada for assembly and then back-door entry into the U.S. via NAFTA.]
♦Squeeze #7. President Trump has been open, visible and vocal about his intention to shift to bilateral trade renegotiation with China and Southeast Asia immediately after Team U.S.A. conclude with NAFTA renegotiation.
♦Squeeze #8. President Trump has positioned ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) as trade benefactors for assistance with North Korea. The relationship between ASEAN nations and the Trump administration is very strong, and getting stronger. Which leads to…
♦Squeeze #9. President Trump has formed an economic and national security alliance with Shinzo Abe of Japan. It is not accidental that North Korea’s Kim Jong-un fired his missile over the Northern part of Japan. Quite simply, Beijing told him to.
Add all of this up and you can see the cumulative impact of President Trump’s geopolitical economic strategy toward China. The best part of all of it – is the likelihood China never saw it, meaning the sum totality of “all of it”, coming.
Six Months Later – This week: •India announces $500 billion investment in U.S. steelworks. •USTR finalizes section 301 report on Chinese trade practices. •The U.S. and South Korea sign historic renegotiated “KORUS” trade deal. •President Trump handing out Steel and Aluminum tariff exemption cards….. And, oh yeah, North Korea tells China it agrees to a full reversal of nuclear ambitions.
Funny that.
The actual announcement of KORUS (“KOR”+”U.S.”), the renegotiated U.S. and South Korea trade deal, has yet to be made by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and U.S. President Donald Trump. However, more details are surfacing inside KORUS media leaks. Fantastic job by Lighthizer!
TOP LINES:
(Via AP) The new deal doubles — to 50,000 — the cars each U.S. automaker can export annually to South Korea, reduces bureaucratic barriers to American products and extends a 25 percent U.S. tariff on South Korean pickup trucks by 20 years, through 2041.
South Korea escapes America’s new 25 percent tariff on imported steel — but must accept quotas on steel exports equal to 70 percent of its average annual shipments to the United States between 2015 and 2017.
The officials spoke on condition of anonymity in order to discuss the policy ahead of an official announcement.
The United States this month began imposing the steel tariffs, saying imports jeopardized U.S. national security. But it has been suspending the duties on allies like the European Union, Canada and Mexico.
The U.S. Treasury Department is also in talks on a deal to prevent Seoul from deliberately pushing its currency lower to give South Korean exporters a competitive advantage. A formal agreement on currency would be unprecedented — but it wouldn’t have teeth, because it would include no enforcement mechanism.
The U.S. trade deficit in goods with South Korea — nearly $23 billion last year — widened after the original pact took effect in 2012, one reason Trump has denounced it. Trade in autos has been especially lopsided: South Korea last year exported to the United States 929,000 passenger vehicles worth $15.7 billion. By contrast, the U.S. shipped to South Korea fewer than 53,000 autos, worth just $1.5 billion, according to the U.S. Commerce Department.
The United States says South Korea has used non-tariff barriers, such as rigorous customs inspections, to block U.S. products.
Trump’s complaints about South Korean trade practices have caused friction between the two allies at a crucial time, as he prepares for a meeting with North Korea’s reclusive leader, Kim Jong Un.
Unions at South Korea’s two-largest automakers, Hyundai Motor Co. and Kia Motors Corp., have already blasted the new agreement for blocking access to the fast-growing U.S. pickup truck market. “It is a humiliating deal that accepts Trump’s strategy to preemptively block South Korean pickup trucks,” Hyundai Motor Company’s labor union said in a statement. (read more)
Syria has always been strategic throughout recorded history. You had to pass through it between Babylon and Egypt. However, as world trade began to emerge, the connections between China and the ancient Roman Empire were fully developed through the Silk Road. Spices were always worth their weight in gold and even during the Middle Ages, bankers were called “pepper-men” because pepper was more valuable than gold by weight.
Following the death of Alexander the Great in 323 BC, his generals divided up the territory he had conquered. After the Battle of Ipsus in 301 BC, Seleucus I Nicator (458-281BC) won the territory of Syria. Seleucus founded four cities in northwestern Syria, one of which was Antioch. He named this city in honor of his father Antiochus or perhaps his son who was named after his grandfather. It was founded on a site chosen through ritual means. Reportedly, an eagle, the bird of Zeus, had been given a piece of sacrificial meat and the city was founded on the site to which the eagle carried the offering. Seleucus did this on the 22nd day of the month of Artemisios in the twelfth year of his reign, which in modern terms was May 300 BC.
Antioch quickly rose to become the Syrian capital. Antioch flourished due to trade. Caravan merchants began to bring goods from China to the marketplace in Antioch. This was the beginning of the Silk Road in ancient times. Antioch benefited from Roman rule. The Historia Augusta mentions a great fire in Antioch, implying that the emperor Antoninus Pius (138-161AD) offered help to restore the city because it had become the gateway to a fabled great empire in the East. This legend of a great Empire in China had even inspired Alexander the Great to attempt to reach it giving up in India.
Antioch became an extremely important port of trade in the ancient world. It flourished and any major natural disaster would send financial panic down the banking street in Rome – Via Sacra. When the city sometimes suffered earthquakes as recorded during the reigns of Tiberius (14-37AD), Caligula (37-41AD), Hadrian (117-138AD), and Diocletian (284-305AD). Its governor Pescennius Niger (193-194AD) proclaimed himself emperor, he lost the war against his rival Septimius Severus, (193-211AD) who temporarily took away its independence of Antioch, giving it to Laodicea to control as punishment.
During the 3rd century, Antioch was the city of innovation. Street lighting appears also in this city during the 3rd Century AD as Saint Jerome (345-420AD) commented in his writings that the capital of ancient Syria was lit up at night by oil lamps hung over ropes that were strung over the streets. By 371AD, this invention spread to Caesarea in Turkey. China, on the other hand, was reported to be lighting up its streets using natural gas supplied through bamboo pipes by Medieval times.
China throughout history became rich by trade with the Roman Empire. Yet the history of Rome that claimed to rule the world (orbis terrarum) stood at the opposite end of the world from the strikingly similar Han Dynasty (206BC-220AD) in China, which also claimed to have ruled the world (tianxia). There is the History Book for Tang-Dynasty in China covering the period 618-907AD. Yet the text mentions 17 times what appears to be the Roman Empire . It also describes an envoy that was sent by the Roman Emperor to China. The Roman Emperor was recorded to have been “Anton” 
.
The account of such an envoy who visited the older Han Dynasty predates the Venetian traveler Marco Polo (1254-1325) by more than 1,000 years. This envoy has been attributed to 166AD during the reign of Marcus Aurelius Antoninus (121-180AD). It is the death of Marcus Aurelius, that has marked the peak in the Roman Empire and the turning point that begins the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire where its monetary system collapses just 72 years thereafter. This envoy established diplomatic contact at the peak of the Roman Empire from which a disastrous decline begins. Any political-economic aspirations to further such a relationship would then die with Marcus Aurelius. Yet also, both empires would suffer the same fate of barbarian invasions. The Han Dynasty falls in 220AD from which emerges the chaotic period known as the Three Kingdoms (220-280AD) – the division of the once unified Chinese Empire.
There is hard evidence that demonstrates that there was direct contact between Rome and China going back to the period of 180AD. The connection point has ALWAYS been Syria. China is also backing Syria with money. The Chinese are looking to build on the old world power position of the historic Silk Road (One belt, one road). China has never actively participated in the war militarily but has ensured financing their goals. Syria maintains close economic relations with Russia and China because of the stupidity of the West, which began with stopping a pipeline to compete with Russia. Likewise, despite being a member of NATO, Turkey is flirting with the expansion of Turkish-Chinese relations in addition to it historical ties with Russia.
As strange as it might sound, China has more skin-in-the-game with Syria than Russia. The Russians had to intervene after it became apparent that the international and Islamist mercenaries were heading for the Russian military base in Latakia. Russia and China clearly complement each other on the worldwide stage of politics. Both suffered Communist revolutions and they are the most important security players in that part of the world. China has provided the economic security while Russia provides the military security.
Syria is the focal point in the Middle East. It is where all the power meets for economic reasons. This seems to be the way for thousands of years.
The results of the Italian election is just starting to sink in. The rise of comedian Beppo Grillo to Italy’s most successful politician, who won 32.7% of the popular voted compared to Merkel winning 32.8% in the German election. Following the election on March 4th, Grillo’s “five-star” party took by far the first place. Brussels is still in shock and trembling as its mood has changed from he is just a joke to “OMG! This threatens the very existence of the EU”.
Grillo’s party sharply criticizes the EU, and above all, it questions the very purpose of Euro. The skepticism in the EU’s founding country Italy where they signed the Treaty of Rome, is rather amazing that those still focused on domestic issues in the USA are clueless about the threat to the Euro.
The threat Italy poses to the Euro stems from Brussels’ refusal to aid Italy with the refugee crisis and the outrageous demands that the increased expenditure for the refugees must be deducted from other expenditures to stay within the EU demanded guidelines, This has maintained a serious deflationary atmosphere in Italy and Brussels simply ignores the economic impact of what their policies have imposed. Italy’s public debt amounts to €2.2 trillion, and the risk of this debt going into crisis undermines the entire existence of the Euro. This is the direct result of the failed structure of the Euro I have warned about from the outset. (see 1996 reports)
Brussels tries to blame the misconduct of banks and takes no responsibility for the failed design of the Euro or for EU legislators and the European Central Bank, which have also played a profound role is turning Italy against Brussels. Swapping the old debt into Euro that then doubled in value, created a massive wave of deflation that 10 years of flooding the economy with money by the central bank has produced nothing but undermined then the pension system throughout Europe.
The world is lost, yet politicians fail to even understand that they are lost in their misconceptions of economics. The peak in the Euro came precisely in 2008 and ever since we have witnessed the erosion of economic confidence. The peak of the first 8.6-year wave into this new cycle for Europe came 2013.13 and then the low was 2017.43. We are now in a wave due for its peak in 2021.73 and by that turning point, we will see the Euro under tremendous pressure if it can even survive. There is no doubt that by 2030.33, that the Euro will probably not exist. The complete failure of the design is a profound mistake that is tearing Europe apart
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It is obvious that you have indeed been behind the curtain for your knowledge of even global politics is amazing. Kim Jong Un is here in Beijing. You said he would back down. You said the risk of war lies in the Middle East, not Korea. Your model calls the markets. You said the Dow would bounce for two days and then turn down. Even that took place today. Where do you begin and the computer ends?
UGH
ANSWER: That is a hard question to answer. The computer can show me the region for conflict. That is determined by cyclical trends for each region yet at times it is augmented by a combination of capital flows. Picking things like the fall of communism back in 1989 and picking when the Berlin Wall would fall were based cyclically on the outcome of that trend. That was 72 years from the Russian Revolution of 1917. That was the perfect target for the volatility models within the ECM. Both converged so it made it really a piece of cake.
The collapse of the Soviet Union came in 1991, that was a simple 2-year reactionary process all within a cyclical forecast. Now, the collapse of the Russian bond market which set in motion a major contagion and the Long-Term Capital Management debacle was determined from a capital flow and cyclical perspective. That came 8.6 years following the fall of the Berlin Wall. When that forecast made the front page of the second section of the FT, that is when even the CIA came. They suddenly realized that our model could forecast the rise and fall of nations. But that is also when the bankers began to complain to the CFTC and SEC that I was “manipulating” the world economy because they were all long Russian bonds and blamed me for their losses using the FT article as proof. They said I had too much “influence” rather than consider the possibility that just maybe we were able to forecast events that they thought bribing politicians would prevent.
The above chart is calculated from the day the Berlin Wall fell – November 9th, 1989. Our forecast for the fall of the Russian financial system in 1998 was 8,6 years from the fall of the Berlin Wall. But look at the dates beyond that 2002 (low in the US market post-DOT.COM Bubble), 2007 (the peak in the world economy & start of real estate meltdown), 2015 (Russia invade Syria, Refugees welcomed into Europe by Merkel, start of the rise in interest rates at the Fed), and the dates to come are 2019, 2024, 2028, and 2037.
This is the collapse of socialism which is the collapse of pensions and will result in a new monetary system. We will see 2019 as a financial crisis and 2024 as a rise in commodity prices.
Each domino is set in motion by the previous. Yes, my experience behind the curtain allows me to understand the real risks, but the model defines where they are and the computer will continue to write reports when I am gone.
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross appears on Fox Business News for an extensive interview with Maria Bartiromo. The interview covers a wide spectrum of important topics attached to the U.S. economy and ongoing trade deals. Two great video segments for the interview will get you up to speed on ongoing initiatives:
♦Segment #1 outlines the upcoming announcement of KORUS, the South Korea and U.S. trade deal. Additionally, Secretary Ross discusses the steel and aluminum tariffs and how they enmesh in the larger objective of the ongoing trade negotiations with China:
.
♦Segment #2 outlines more on the aluminum and steel tariffs; ongoing trade talks with Europe; efforts to renegotiate NAFTA, and the possibility of a deal being reached; Saudi Arabian investment in the U.S. and the Commerce Department plans to bring back a citizenship question in the 2020 Census.
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Worth noting the reaction to Maria Bartiromo at 02:45 of the video centered around the question of the “lefty winning in Mexico“, etc. It would appear, based on hidden grinning, the trade team is anticipating a socialist victory in the Mexican election which would likely end up with Mexico wanting to cancel NAFTA due to loggerheads with the U.S.
It is additionally likely Canada’s Chrystina Freeland would lose her NAFTA cohort Mexican Foreign Minister Ildefonso Guajardo. Through seven rounds of NAFTA talks Freeland and Guarjardo have tag-teamed against Ambassador Robert Lighthizer (U.S.).
National Trade Council Director Peter Navarro appeared on CNBC, prior to today’s massive U.S. stock market increase, to discuss ongoing trade initiatives.
U.S.T.R. Robert Lighthizer is currently conducting simultaneous bilateral trade negotiations with South Korea, Philippines, Vietnam, Australia, China (way-points), Japan, Mexico/Canada (NAFTA) and the European Union.
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It appears that now the Bundesbank has adopted your view of rising interest rates. How fast do you see rates rising?
PY
ANSWER: Yes, the Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann has come out and warned that banks should start to make provisions for interest rate risks associated with rising interest rates. The normalization of the interest rates is essential and as always, it is now too little too late. The economic environment is changing much more rapidly than most suspect. It is true that the German banks have increased their equity significantly since the financial crisis. While the central banks are warning that rates are rising, they misjudge the fact that banks are by no means as resilient as they were before the 2007-2009 crisis.
German 10-year rates will start to rise rapidly following a monthly closing above 0.79%. The next stop will be 2% and thereafter, we will see a test of the 4% level. Once we exceed the 2007 high of 4.67%, we will see a rapid rise to the 5.6% area and an annual closing above that will warn of a test of the 8.5%-11% zone and that can be easily by 2020.
One day soon, the world will suddenly discover that the European project is authoritarian because they believe the people as stupid and politicians know better. When that day dawns, the crisis in Europe will erupt in total shock and this will undermine the entire economy which has rapidly fallen to even behind China. At the core of this true European Crisis is the fact that individual human rights come behind the rights of politicians. Make no mistake about it, politicians in the West secretly admire China where some view the model for democracy in the West as crumbling before their eyes.
Germany has arrested the former Catalan Prime Minister Carles Puigdemont enforcing Spain’s dictatorship and anti-Democratic government to save the EU. Spain is by NO MEANS a democratic nation and evidence of that statement is the Spanish Constitution. It exempts all politicians and Judges holding them above the law and denies the right of the people to even disagree with the government. Puigdemont was arrested on the German-Danish border traveling from Finland to Belgium. The state police office in Kiel announced that Puigdemont had been arrested and the charge is advocating a democratic vote in Catalonia to separate from Spain. This is the most outrageous legal persecution that has taken place since the Communist Revolution in Russia who imprisoned or killed anyone who opposed them.
Puigdemont proclaimed Catalonia’s independence from Spain in October, that Madrid says violating the constitution. Their interpretation of their Constitution is permanent slavery no different from the positions of France and Britain that justified the French and American Revolutions. Then the Spanis judiciary began investigations into rebellion and charged Puigdemont and other leading separatists who were forced to then flee to Belgium into exile. Clearly, anyone one charges with a political crime MUST leave Europe for the governments will conspire to save the EU.
Puigdemont went to Finland to attend a conference and Spain submitted an application for the arrest of the deposed regional president. Finland then agreed to arrest Puigdemont so he fled to return to Belgium. Germany intercepted him and arrested him and he now faces 25 years in prison where he will certainly die. Spain’s Supreme Court opened criminal proceedings against Puigdemont and other regional politicians. Imprisoning people for their political ideas has been the hallmark of tyranny. It is a sad day to watch the ruthless behavior of the Spanish government and its Judiciary is a disgrace to the nation and the Spanish people.
The entire problem underlying this crisis exposes the Spanish Constitution that NEVER truly provided a democratic nation for it did not provide a workable transition from dictatorship to democracy. This Spanish Constitution is a contradictory document that denies any democratic resolution or process and maintains the Franco Dictatorship. In Spain, all members of parliament, including those in regional parliaments, enjoy immunity, judges cannot be dismissed. The Constitution defines political parties as “the main instrument of political participation” (Article 6), giving them a role that goes far beyond the process of public opinion-making, as understood in most democracies.
In Spain, the self-interest of government prevails over the rights of the individual. This is the plain reading of Article 155 (see below). The Franco regime organized the Society around its National Movement and the vertical, professional syndicates. Therefore, it was not even the people as a whole that was considered to be the nation but the party. Following the dictator’s death, Spain did open up to political and trade union pluralism, but there was no real redefining revision of Franco’s means of dictatorship. The citizens do not vote for deputies, but closed lists of a party whose candidates move into Parliament depending on the number of votes. MPs do not have offices in their constituencies.
There is no actual representative form of government when you look closely at the structure. There is no actual accountability for the political party itself and they are isolated from the public opinion and their own base. This is why political corruption runs ramped in Spain – there is no actual direct representation or accountability. The Spanish section of Transparency International called on the parties to abolish the closed lists and publish their campaign budgets no later than three months after the election back in 2014. Nothing has been done.
The entire Spanish Constitution contradicts the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) is an international treaty to protect human rights and fundamental freedoms in Europe. Article 10 of the ECHR provides the right to freedom of expression and information, subject to certain restrictions that are “in accordance with law” and “necessary in a democratic society”. This right includes the freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas. However, the Spanish Constitution outright contradicts Article 10 by its Article 155. Clearly, the Spanish Constitution was no more than a compromise between democracy and Francoism. Above all, the fathers of the Spanish Constitution wanted to prevent a civil war by retaining an authoritative clause that allowed dictatorial action. The new constitution was therefore settled between an authoritarian, national Catholic leader system and a democracy and has never actually placed individual liberties in a role of importance violating the very idea of human rights.
The Spanis government will undoubtedly fall. It will be 43 years and ripe for its complete collapse in 2021. The arrest of Puigdemont proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that the Spanish Constitution denies freedom of expression and human rights. Puigdemont did not engage in violence and thus is simply a political prisoner and Germany is endorsing the dictatorship of Spain.
No one in the EU leadership stand for public election either. No wonder they too support Spain.
PREAMBLE
The Spanish Nation, wishing to establish justice, liberty and security, and to promote the welfare of all who make part of it, in use of her sovereignty, proclaims its will to:
Guarantee democratic life within the Constitution and the laws according to a just economic and social order.
Consolidate a State ensuring the rule of law as an expression of the will of the people.
Protect all Spaniards and all the peoples of Spain in the exercise of human rights, their cultures and traditions, languages and institutions.
Promote the progress of culture and the economy to ensure a dignified quality of life for all
Establish an advanced democratic society, and
Collaborate in the strengthening of peaceful and efficient cooperation among all the peoples of the Earth.
Consequently, the Cortes approve and the Spanish people ratify the . . . Constitution.
ARTICLE 155
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