Tag Archives: Free Market

Nov 23 2022

Australians Safe from Fifth Jab


Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania Re-Posted Nov 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

After taking four vaccines and failing to curb the transmission of the coronavirus, Australian health officials will not recommend a third booster shot. Health Minister Mark Butler said the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunization (ATAGI) admitted that a fifth dosage of the mRNA vaccine would have “minimal” effect toward reduction efforts.

Australia once had some of the strictest COVID restrictions in the world, and this is huge news. ATAGI member Allen Cheng, Ph.D., mentioned that the risk of myocarditis in younger people is troubling. “Vaccinations are beneficial and protective even for younger people but the more doses you get the less benefit you derive from them and then we start to worry about causing side effects,” Cheng said.

Butler said that new booster recommendations will be made in early 2023. Australians are not off the hook yet. Everyone over the age of 30 has been eligible for a second booster since July. The government still recommends staying “up to date” on vaccinations despite that standard constantly changing.

Nov 23 2022

Ukraine Supporters & Denial of History


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted Nov 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

UN Agreement Ukraine 1994

I apologize, the proposal began in 1991 for Russia to join NATO. But the final agreement with respect to Ukraine’s nukes was not in Belgrade but in Budapest. History has been rewritten to support the war against Russia for climate change. I have never seen any account of history that reports NATO invited Russia to join in 1991. Some people are so pro-Ukrainian that it is insane. They are really cheering for World War III and no doubt believed in COVID, Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iraq, and Hillary’s RussiaGate. They refuse to open their eyes to see that they have been played for fools as always to justify war.

So cheer all you want. This war will NOT be confined to just Ukraine you can watch it on TV as if it is some video game. Ukraine was the 3rd largest nuclear power. That was a fact. The US paid them to surrender their nukes to Russia and they in turn provided nuclear power rods for electricity. James Baker warned about loose nukes and Ukraine was one of the three republics that ended up with nukes. The difference was, Ukraine wanted to use them on Moscow. All my sources back then were deeply concerned that Ukraine just could not ever be trusted. It was Ukraine that kept the cold war going. Zelensky has supported the Ukrainian Neo-Nazis who have even bragged that they feed the bones of Russian-speaking children to their pet wolves. I have fact-checked that and it is a true statement made to the press.

My dealing with Ukrainian governments has always been: Just show me the money. Ukraine is a corrupt black hole. History will show who is on the right and wrong side if any side survives.

Good luck with your hatred. Remember, there is a funny thing about what we call karma. What you wish on someone else may be what becomes your own undoing. So don’t worry. Your hatred of Russia will end that nation, but it will be a Phryic War and nobody will survive. So cheer the loss of your future. You will get what you deserve in spades.

The Polish Association of Memory of Victims of Crimes of Ukrainian Nationalists documented 135 methods of torture and murder practiced by Ukrainian Nazis. Poland officially called the Ukrainian actions genocide. The Ukrainians have been protected by the CIA for decades ONLY because they hated Russians. They continue to protect the Ukrainian Nazis only because they are waging war against Russia.

The Ukrainians were unprecedented in their war crimes during WWII and the sheer outright cruelty one would expect only exists in some B-Rated horror movies. This included:

  • Running children through with stakes
  • Cutting a person’s throat and pulling their tongue out through the hole
  • Sawing a person’s torso in half with a carpenter’s saw
  • Cutting open the belly of a woman in an advanced stage of pregnancy, removing the fetus, and replacing it with a live cat, before sewing up her abdomen.
  • Cutting open a pregnant women’s abdomen and pouring in broken glass
  • Nailing a small child to a door.

Ignore all the history you want to keep fanning the flames of war. When you lose everything, remember – you asked for this result.

Nov 13 2022

Interest Rates Rise will Not be Slow


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates Re-Posted Nov 13, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

This interview with FXStreet is from 2015. Some are surprised at the consecutive rate hikes, but our models have been indicating for a very long time that rates would rise rapidly. There would be no soft landing. Central banks maintained artificially low rates for far too long and were backed into a corner. They created a problem long ago, and it will cause pain for “some time,” as Powell usually states, for the situation to be under control.

Nov 8 2022

2022 WEC: In the Dollar We Trust


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Economic Conference Re-Posted Nov 8, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

At the World Economic Conference in 2021, the Armstrong Socrates model predicted that 2022 was going to be volatile and chaotic featuring a strong US dollar, a huge move in interest rates, a major bond market decline, fertilizer and food shortages, as well as escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine.

What now? Socrates forecast that 2023 will be more volatile and chaotic, featuring violent moves across all markets as monetary and geopolitical tensions and debt problems intensify.

At this year’s World Economic Conference, November 11-13, Martin Armstrong will talk about what’s next for the US dollar and other currencies, the liquidity/credit crisis, as well as price targets for oil, gold, stocks, bonds/interest rates, and stocks.

Give yourself an “unfair” advantage over the markets by joining us at this year’s conference remotely or in person. Meet Martin Armstrong – have your questions answered and get the best roadmap for 2023 and beyond in the investment business.

Nov 1 2022

Halloween Spending Amid Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events Re-Posted Nov 1, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

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The National Retail Federation estimated that 172 million Americans spent $10.6 billion on Halloween this year, or $100 per person. Around $1.2 billion went into costumes for children, not to be outdone by adults spending $1.7 billion on their own costumes. Around $710 million was spent on pet costumes as well. Around 67% of consumers handed out candy, 51% decorated, 47% wore a costume, 44% carved pumpkins, and 26% participated in a Halloween party. Halloween spending is back to pre-pandemic levels, but inflation is to blame.

Food, candy, pumpkins, décor – all of these items cost significantly more in 2022, but Americans are still willing to spend. Candy alone is up 13.1% from last year, surpassing food inflation at 11.2%.

This is foreshadowing for the Christmas season, which historically is the most lucrative time for retailers and a big boost for overall GDP. Around 25% of all retail spending occurs in November and December each year, but many have already begun holiday shopping as stores are forced to offer more appealing sales. Retailers who fail to profit in the remaining months of 2022 will be forced to downgrade their forecasts and re-evaluate their businesses in the current economy. Layoffs and store closures are likely, and many retailers have already halted hiring. Americans do not have more disposable income to spend on the holidays, but those who can are willing to pay inflated prices to participate in age-old traditions.

Oct 27 2022

Steve Mnuchin is Not Pretending, States U.S. Economy is Already in Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 26, 2022 | Sundance

A lot of people didn’t like Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary, I did.  Secretary Mnuchin was an inside player, a billionaire himself, who worked for the outside team.  He already had a full bank account and carried ‘f**k-off’ money.   That, combined with Wilbur Ross having the same ability, was exactly what we needed to execute the America-First MAGAnomic resurgence.

The U.S. middle-class saw and felt the benefits.  Economic security is national security, at a nationwide and even individual level.  Mnuchin, Ross and Lighthizer constructed that economic outcome guided by the larger strategy of President Donald J Trump.

RIYADH, Oct 26 (Reuters) – Former U.S. treasury secretary Steve Mnuchin said on Wednesday he believed the United States was in a recession and said this would continue.

Speaking at Riyadh’s flagship investment conference FII, he said: “I think we’ll probably see a peak of 4.5% 10-year rates.”

“I think you are going to see inflation in the U.S. begin to come under control, it will probably be a two-year period,” he added.

He said the U.S. and China must learn to co-exist. He added that the Middle East’s economic issues need to be dealt with regionally. (link)

Oct 15 2022

Major Merger Announced, Kroger and Albertsons Announce Merger Deal Worth $24.6 Billion


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on October 14, 2022 | Sundance 

Not that long ago, I would have said to allow the free market to decide if a merger or acquisition was valuable for the consumer.  However, in the era where massive multinational corporations, investment groups and financial institutions have now used corporatism to merge their interests with government, the massive multinationals need scrutiny.

Two major food retailers, Kroger and Albertsons, have announced their intent to merge into one massive company in a deal valued at $24.6 billion.  The majority stakeholders in Kroger are institutional investors Vanguard ($3.72 billion/11.29%) and Blackrock ($3.02 billion/ 9.17%).   The majority stakeholder in Albertsons is institutional investment group Cerberus ($3.90 billion/28.54%).

In the past few years, food has surfaced as a growing national security issue.  Foreign companies and large multinationals continue to expand their control over U.S. farm production and export U.S. farm products (Big Ag).  A major retail level move like the merger of Kroger and Albertsons creates a weaker competitive environment and gives a larger potential footprint to price control.

CBS – […] Together, the companies will have more than 710,000 workers and operate nearly 5,000 stores, along with roughly 4,000 pharmacies. Kroger, based in Cincinnati, Ohio, operates 2,800 stores in 35 states, including brands like Ralphs, Smith’s and Harris Teeter. Alberstons, based in Boise, Idaho, operates 2,220 stores in 34 states, including brands like Safeway, Jewel Osco and Shaw’s. 

“Albertsons Cos. brings a complementary footprint and operates in several parts of the country with very few or no Kroger stores,” Kroger CEO Rodney McMullen, who will lead the expanded company, said in a statement.

Kroger will pay $34.10 for each share of Albertsons stock, a 19% premium from the closing price on Thursday. As part of the purchase, Albertsons will issue a cash dividend of up to $4 billion to its shareholders, which the companies said is expected to be about $6.85 per share. (read more)

Sometimes bigger is just bigger and more controlling, not better.

That said, with economic volitivity continuing to increase, the food sector is a safe harbor for massive investment shifts.

Jun 17 2022

Russian Oil Revenue Returns to Pre Sanction Levels in May


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on June 16, 2022 | Sundance 

Western sanctions against Russia have been used primarily to obfuscate the cause of western inflation and keep the citizen pitchforks from reaching various government offices.  So far, the strategy -assisted by western media- has been mostly successful.

However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) is reporting that despite the western sanctions against Russia, the Russian energy sector is having no trouble finding customers for its oil sales.  With global oil prices at their highest rates in years, in part driven by the energy policy of the same western leaders who triggered the sanctions, Russia is getting just as much economic benefit as it was before the sanctions regime was triggered.

(EU FINANCE) – Russia continued to rake in oil revenues in May despite a global boycott from companies and most countries following its invasion of Ukraine, a new report has shown.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said the Kremlin’s oil-export revenues surged to around $20bn last month, an 11% increase from the month before, despite shipping lower volumes.

Its latest monthly report, published on Wednesday, said this takes Moscow’s total revenue for shipping oil and crude products roughly back to levels before the invasion of Ukraine. Russian exports fell by about 3% due to lower oil-product flows, the Paris-based agency estimates.

Meanwhile, crude shipped during the month grew by nearly 500,000 barrels a day compared to the start of the year, largely thanks to higher deliveries in Asia.

“China and India, which have both sharply increased crude oil purchases from Russia, are net product exporters and have no need to lift Russian products,” it said. (read more)

Jun 2 2022

Is Russia on the Defensive?


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jun 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov is warning the US that they have become instigators in the Russia-Ukraine war. “We believe that the U.S. is deliberately pouring oil on the fire. The U.S. is obviously holding the line that it will fight Russia to the last Ukrainian,” Peskov recently told reporters, according to Reuters.

Peskov’s warning comes shortly after Russia deemed most “unfriendly” nations as “hostile,” and with good cause. In an interview with PBS, Peskov said that President Biden’s suggestion to remove Putin from power was taken as a personal insult as the people of Russia, not the president of a foreign nation, determine Russian leadership.

Peskov speaks clearly and confidently; he does not seem like a madman hell-bent on war. In fact, he stated that Russia never wanted war. For decades, Russia has told the West that they are “afraid of NATO” moving closer into their territory. “Please take care of it and do not push us into the corner,” the Kremlin spokesman explained. In Russia’s eyes, they are on the defensive. Putin strictly warned other nations not to interfere in Russia-Ukraine relations. Peskov now states that the West, not Ukraine, is “leading the war against us.”

As for the claim that Russia will launch nukes, Peskov made it clear that Russia has no plans to do so, but would under an existential threat. He clarified that the “existence of the state” and “special military operations in Ukraine” have nothing to do with one another. Ukraine certainly cannot back Russia in a corner to which it feels it must implode its way out, but the West does and is pushing that boundary daily.

Jun 2 2022

Americans Blame Biden for Inflation


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Jun 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Unfortunately for Biden, the Great Unwashed is not gullible enough to accept his explanation that Putin is to blame for inflation. A Convention of States Action/Trafalgar Group survey found that most respondents (59.9%) believe Biden’s policies are the “leading contributor” to rising prices. Around 87.9% of Republicans and 61.1% of Independents cited Biden as the leading culprit, while only 55.2% of Democrats were ready to admit that Biden is destroying the economy.

Biden insists the American Rescue Plan and vast overseas donations did not contribute to inflation. He insists preventing America from being energy independent did not contribute to inflation. Even his own Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cannot stand by these lies. Yellen insisted in March 2021 that inflation posed a “small risk” for America. In May 2021, Yellen said inflation would not become a problem. Then the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan was signed into law. Biden eliminated oil permits and allowed ports to clog.

This Tuesday, Yellen finally admitted she and the Biden Administration were wrong about inflation. “As I mentioned, there have been unanticipated and large shocks to the economy that boosted energy and food prices, and supply bottlenecks, that have affected our economy badly that I, at the time, didn’t fully understand,” Yellen told CNN. “But we recognize that now.”

Although they recognize the issue, there is no plan in place to implement policies to ease inflation. Upon meeting with Fed Chair Powell, Biden simply said that it is the Fed’s place to solve the crisis he created. “My plan to address inflation starts with a simple proposition: Respect the Fed. Respect the Fed’s independence,” Biden said. Since the Fed is independent of the government, he has no choice but to “respect the Fed’s independence.”