The Hunt for Taxes Brings Down Governments Every Time



COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I live in Germany. I wanted to send my father €200 for Christmas. I had to prove where the money came from. It does seem as if there is a major gap between those trading the euro for big banks and the people. I left Romania for freedom. Everything that I fled from has seemed to follow me to the West. Those who cheer the rise of the euro seem oblivious to the reality on the street. We have no real government in place here since nobody won a majority. The clash between freedom and oppression is playing out in silence. I fear this will just explode all of a sudden as it did behind the Iron Curtain.

PB

REPLY: You are not alone. I have several Russian, Hungarian, and Ukrainian friends who all express the same concerns. The fact that you fled to freedom and then see the very aspects of government that made you flee in the first place have taken hold in the West is all part of the cycle. This is simply how Empires, Nations, and Citystates collapse. They are always the same – a constant search for more power to retain their control. Then it all snaps. That comes typically when a government can no longer feed its own workforce to keep the people in check.

Revolt of the Heraclii 608-610 AD of Carthage

Emperor Phocas (602-610) persecuted the Aristocrats (rich) seeking taxation causing capital to go into hiding and the VELOCITY of money to decline. His reign did more than any other to begin the process of a significant decline of the Byzantine Empire. His tyrannical treatment of wealth led to a rebellion that began in North Africa by the exarch of Carthage, Heraclius in 608AD, who had been a leading and respected general under the previous emperor Maurice Tiberius (582–602).

This tax rebellion that began in Carthage, spread throughout the provinces. The funds were thereby raised to put together a considerable effort under Heraclius and his son. This major effort gathered a massive fleet that sailed toward the capital Constantinople. When they reached Constantinople, the gates were opened and Phocas was handed over. He was promptly executed being abandoned, and his statue he had constructed in the Hippodrome was now publicly burned. The young Heraclius was crowned by the Patriarch and began a new dynasty as Heraclius (610-641AD). His father did NOT assume the role of co-emperor showing his motives were to simply save his nation.

What most people do not know about history is the fall of government typically comes from tax rebellions. Michael IV the Paplagonian (1034-1041AD) raised taxes excessively setting in motion the collapse in VELOCITY of money once again as people hoarded their wealth creating the essential element to the destruction of an economy as you see in Europe today. Once capital begins to hoard and hide from the government tax collectors, the beginning of the end appears. In the case of Byzantium, this was set in motion by a tax hike and aggressive tax collection. The Slav population of the Balkans rebelled against the taxation. Michael IV himself was present to put down the tax rebellion oppressing the people and pillaging what they had.

The heavy taxation had also contributed to the demise of the small landowner. Thus, the higher the tax rates, the less production took place. The Empire had begun a vicious downward economic spiral that was not understood. Isaac I, Comnenus (1057-1059) embarked on a mission to strengthen the Byzantine Empire. His fatal mistake was one of finances. The treasury was depleted. The gold coinage had been debased, and the high taxation did nothing but send the economy into a downward spiral. Unable to tax the people, they began to run out of precious metal. Isaac I now did what so many other rulers had done before him; i.e. Napoleon, Henry VIII, and all Communists. He confiscated Church property with no other option. The Patriarch protested, and Isaac had him arrested and put on trial on trumped up charges of heresy. The Patriarch died before judgment or trial, yet the people were so outraged, Isaac I was forced to abdicate and go to a monastery.

What people do not credit is the Muslim conquest of Byzantium with the fact that they had the support of most Jews and many Christians. Why? The Muslim government eliminated the abusive taxation of the Byzantine Empire that was plagued with tax rebellions all the time. The Jewish revolt against Heraclius was part of the Byzantine–Sasanian War of 602–628. This was the final attempt by Jews to gain autonomy in the Land of Israel prior to modern times.

Education Secretary Betsy DeVos: Common Core is Dead at U.S. Department of Education…


U.S. Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos gave a far-ranging speech Tuesday in Washington at an American Enterprise Institute conference, “Bush-Obama School Reform: Lessons Learned.”  Most media reporting outlines Mrs. DeVos presentation to state ‘the era of common core education is now dead“…

The full transcript of Secretary DeVos remarks is below:

[Transcript] “Thank you, Rick, for that kind introduction. Who would’ve thought that after we were last together on a panel in Grand Rapids a couple of years ago, I’d be here in this capacity today?

It’s an honor to be with all of you at an organization I have long appreciated.

AEI is now in its 80th year and in that near century, the Institute’s scholars have influenced and shaped the way Americans think about so many issues in the public square. AEI has been – and will continue to be – a treasured constant in this town of transition. And it should be noted that’s due in no small part to the leadership of Arthur Brooks, who brings a unique and compelling perspective. I’m grateful to call him a friend.

I’d like to especially thank Rick and Michael for putting this volume together and for hosting today’s important discussions. Both of you have contributed significantly to the policy debates in American education, and, importantly, you’ve put your distinct perspectives and experience to work with the goal of improving education for all. You both left the classroom out of frustration, and there are still far too many teachers who share that experience today.

My work over thirty years has revolved around time spent on the outside, looking in. Outside Washington. Outside the LBJ building. Outside “the system.” Some have questioned the presence of an outsider in the Department of Education, but, as it’s been said before, maybe what students need is someone who doesn’t yet know all the things you “can’t do.”

To a casual observer, a classroom today looks scarcely different than what one looked like when I entered the public policy debate thirty years ago. Worse, most classrooms today look remarkably similar to those of 1938 when AEI was founded. Take a look at this! These two operating rooms look starkly different, as does this general store and this website. But these two classrooms look almost identical.

The vast majority of learning environments have remained the same since the industrial revolution, because they were made in its image. Think of your own experience: sit down; don’t talk; eyes front. Wait for the bell. Walk to the next class. Repeat. Students were trained for the assembly line then, and they still are today.

Our societies and economies have moved beyond the industrial era. But the data tell us education hasn’t.

The most recent Program for International Student Assessment, or PISA, report, with which you are all familiar, has the U.S. ranked 23rd in reading, 25th in science and 40th in math. And, you know this too: it’s not for a lack of funding. The fact is the United States spends more per pupil than most other developed countries, many of which perform better than us in the same surveys.

I know that hard truth touches a nerve for everyone in this room. It does so for educators who try to help their students realize their potential. For employers who seek prepared employees. And, most importantly, for parents who only want the best for their children.

Of course there have been many attempts to change the status quo. We’ve seen valiant efforts to improve education from Republicans and Democrats, liberals, conservatives and everyone in between.

That’s because everyone is aiming for the same result.

Everyone wants students to be prepared and to lead successful lives.

We can’t say that sort of public harmony exists in other policy arenas. Not everyone agrees about the outcome or goal of tax policy or energy policy or immigration policy.

Our unity of purpose here presents an opportunity.

But while we’ve changed some aspects of education, the results we all work for and desire haven’t been achieved.

The bottom line is simple: federal education reform efforts have not worked as hoped.

That’s not a point I make lightly or joyfully. Yes, there have been some minor improvements in a few areas. But we’re far from where we need to be. We need to be honest with ourselves. The purpose of today’s conversation is to look at the past with 20/20 hindsight, examine what we have done and where it has – or hasn’t – led us.

First, let me be clear that I’m not here to impugn anyone’s motives. Every one of us wants better for students. We want better for our own children. We want better for our communities and our country. We won’t solve any problems through finger-pointing.

I also don’t intend to criticize the goals of previous administrations’ education initiatives. In the end, every administration has tried to improve education for students and grow the number who are learning valuable skills.

We should hope – no, we should commit – that we as a country will not rest until every single child has equal access to the quality education they deserve. Secretary Spellings was right to ask “whose child do you want to leave behind?”

But the question remains: why, after all the good intentions, the worthwhile goals, the wealth of expertise mustered, and the billions and billions of dollars spent, are students still unprepared?

With No Child Left Behind, the general consensus among federal policymakers was that greater accountability would lead to better schools. Highlighting America’s education woes had become an American pastime, and, they thought, surely if schools were forced to answer for their failures, students would ultimately be better off.

President Bush, the “compassionate conservative,” and Senator Kennedy, the “liberal lion,” both worked together on the law. It said that schools had to meet ambitious goals… or else. Lawmakers mandated that 100 percent of students attain proficiency by 2014. This approach would keep schools accountable and ultimately graduate more and better-educated students, they believed.

Turns out, it didn’t. Indeed, as has been detailed today, NCLB did little to spark higher scores. Universal proficiency, touted at the law’s passage, was not achieved. As states and districts scrambled to avoid the law’s sanctions and maintain their federal funding, some resorted to focusing specifically on math and reading at the expense of other subjects. Others simply inflated scores or lowered standards.

The trend line remains troubling today. According to the most recent National Assessment of Educational Progress data, two-thirds of American fourth graders still can’t read at the level they should. And since 2013, our 8th grade reading scores have declined.

Where the Bush administration emphasized NCLB’s stick, the Obama administration focused on carrots. They recognized that states would not be able to legitimately meet the NCLB’s strict standards. Secretary Duncan testified that 82 percent of the nation’s schools would likely fail to meet the law’s requirements — thus subjecting them to crippling sanctions.

The Obama administration dangled billions of dollars through the “Race to the Top” competition, and the grant-making process not so subtly encouraged states to adopt the Common Core State Standards. With a price tag of nearly four and a half billion dollars, it was billed as the “largest-ever federal investment in school reform.” Later, the Department would give states a waiver from NCLB’s requirements so long as they adopted the Obama administration’s preferred policies — essentially making law while Congress negotiated the reauthorization of ESEA.

Unsurprisingly, nearly every state accepted Common Core standards and applied for hundreds of millions of dollars in “Race to the Top” funds. But despite this change, the United States’ PISA performance did not improve in reading and science, and it dropped in math from 2012 to 2015.

Then, rightly, came the public backlash to federally imposed tests and the Common Core. I agree – and have always agreed – with President Trump on this: “Common Core is a disaster.” And at the U.S. Department of Education, Common Core is dead.

On a parallel track, the Obama administration’s School Improvement Grants sought to fix targeted schools by injecting them with cash. The total cost of that effort was seven billion dollars.

One year ago this week, the Department’s Institute of Education Sciences released a report on what came of all that spending. It said: “Overall, across all grades, we found that implementing any SIG-funded model had no significant impacts on math or reading test scores, high school graduation, or college enrollment.”

There we have it: billions of dollars directed at low-performing schools had no significant impact on student achievement.

These investments were meant to spark meaningful reforms. Schools were encouraged to significantly alter their teaching staffs, fire the principal or change the structure and model of the school. But most glossed over those recommendations. They simply took the federal money and ran the school the same old way.

So where does that leave us? We saw two presidents from different political parties and philosophies take two different approaches.

Federally mandated assessments. Federal money. Federal standards. All originated in Washington, and none solved the problem. Too many of America’s students are still unprepared.

Perhaps the lesson lies not in what made the approaches different, but in what made them the same: the federal government. Both approaches had the same Washington “experts” telling educators how to behave.

The lesson is in the false premise: that Washington knows what’s best for educators, parents and students.

Rick, you’ve rightly pointed out that the federal government is good at making states, districts, and schools do something, but it’s not good at making them do it well. Getting real results for students hinges on how that “something” is done.

That’s because when it comes to education – and any other issue in public life – those closest to the problem are always better able to solve it. Washington bureaucrats and self-styled education “experts” are about as far removed from students as you can get.

Yet under both Republican and Democratic administrations, Washington overextended itself time and time again.

Educators don’t need engineering from Washington. Parents don’t need prescriptions from Washington. Students don’t need standards from Washington.

Throughout both initiatives, the result was a further damaged classroom dynamic between teacher and student, as the focus shifted from comprehension to test-passing. This sadly has taken root, with the American Federation of Teachers recently finding that 60 percent of its teachers reported having moderate to no influence over the content and skills taught in their own classrooms.

Let that sink in. Most teachers feel they have little – if any — say in their own classrooms.

That statistic should shock even the most ardent sycophant of “the system.” It’s yet another reason why we should shift power over classrooms from Washington back to teachers who know their students well.

Federal mandates distort what education ought to be: a trusting relationship between teacher, parent and student.

Ideally, parent and teacher work together to help a child discover his or her potential and pursue his or her passions. When we seek to empower teachers, we must empower parents as well. Parents are too often powerless in deciding what’s best for their child. The state mandates where to send their child. It mandates what their child learns and how he or she learns it. In the same way, educators are constrained by state mandates. District mandates. Building mandates… all kinds of other mandates! Educators don’t need Washington mandating their teaching on top of everything else.

But during the years covered in your volume, the focus was the opposite: more federal government intrusion into relationships between teachers, parents and children.

The lessons of history should force us to admit that federal action has its limits.

The federal-first approach did not start with No Child Left Behind. The push for higher national standards was present in the Clinton administration’s “Goals 2000” initiative. Before that, we had President George H.W. Bush’s “America 2000,” also calling for higher national standards. These followed the Reagan administration’s “Nation at Risk” report, released in 1983.

That report gave dire warnings about the country’s track if education was not reformed. “If an unfriendly foreign power had attempted to impose on America the mediocre educational performance that exists today,” the report warned, “we might well have viewed it as an act of war.” That came after President Carter’s giant nod to union bosses: the establishment of the Department of Education, with the ironic charge to “prohibit federal control of education.”

The trend is evident. Politicians from both parties just can’t help themselves. They have talked about painting education in new colors and even broader strokes. But each time, reform has not fundamentally changed “the system.” Each attempt has really just been a new coat of paint on the same old wall.

When we try the same thing over and over again, yet expect different results, that’s not reform – that’s insanity.

We will not reach our goal of helping every child achieve his or her fullest potential until we truly change. Let me offer three ways we can move forward in that pursuit.

First, we need to recognize that the federal government’s appropriate role is not to be the nation’s school board. My role is not to be the national superintendent nor the country’s “choice chief” – regardless of what the union’s “Chicken Littles” may say! Federal investments in education, after all, are less than 10 percent of total K-12 expenditures, but the burdens created by federal regulations in education amount to a much, much larger percentage.

The Every Student Succeeds Act charted a path in a new direction. ESSA takes important steps to return power where it belongs by recognizing states – not Washington — should shape education policy around their own people. But state lawmakers should also resist the urge to centrally plan education. “Leave it to the states” may be a compelling campaign-season slogan, but state capitols aren’t exactly close to every family either. That’s why states should empower teachers and parents and provide the same flexibility ESSA allows states.

But let’s recognize that many states are now struggling with what comes next. State ESSA plans aren’t the finish line. Those words on paper mean very little if state and local leaders don’t seize the opportunity to truly transform education. They must move past a mindset of compliance and embrace individual empowerment.

Under ESSA, school leaders, educators and parents have the latitude and freedom to try new approaches to serve individual students.

My message to them is simple: do it!

Embrace the imperative to do something truly bold… to challenge the status quo… to break the mold.

One important way to start this process is to make sure that parents get the information they want and need about the performance of their children’s schools and teachers. ESSA encourages states to be transparent about how money is spent, down to the school-building level.

Some states have developed information that is truly useful for parents and teachers. Others have worked just as hard to obfuscate what is really going on at their schools. To empower parents, policymakers and teachers, we can’t let “the system” hide behind complexity to escape accountability.

We must always push for better.

ESSA is a good step in the right direction. But it’s just that – a step. We still find ourselves boxed in a “system,” one where we are in a constant battle to move the ball between the 40-yard lines of a football field. Nobody scores, and nobody wins. Students are left bored in the bleachers, and many leave, never to return.

So why don’t we consider whether we need a new playbook?

That brings me to point number two. And, to finish the analogy… let’s call a new play: empowering parents.

Parents have the greatest stake in the outcome of their child’s education. Accordingly, they should also have the power to make sure their child is getting the right education.

As Deven Carlson points out, there is little constituency in America for the top-down reforms that have been tried time and again. In order for any reform to truly work, it must attract and maintain the support of the people.

I have seen such support for parental empowerment. The more parents exercise it, the more they like it. This growing support is why states are responding to that demand one by one. It’s also why sycophants entrenched in and defending the status quo are terrified. They recoil from relinquishing power and control to teachers, parents and students.

Well, I’m not one bit afraid of losing power. Because I trust parents and teachers, and I believe in students.

Equal access to a quality education should be a right for every American and every parent should have the right to choose how their child is educated. Government exists to protect those rights, not usurp them.

So let’s face it: the opponents of parents could repeal every voucher law, close every charter school, and defund every choice program across the country.

But school choice still wouldn’t go away. There would still be school choices… for the affluent and the powerful.

Let’s empower the forgotten parents to decide where their children go to school. Let’s show some humility and trust all parents to know their kids’ needs better than we do.

Let’s trust teachers, too. Let’s encourage them to innovate, to create new options for students. Not just with public charter schools or magnet schools or private schools, but within the traditional “system” and with new approaches yet to be explored.

What we’ve been doing isn’t serving all kids well. Let’s unleash teachers to help solve the problem.

You know, I’ve never heard it claimed that giving parents more options is bad for mom and dad. Or for the child. What you hear is that it’s bad for “the system” – for the school building, the school system, the funding stream.

That argument speaks volumes about where Chicken Little’s priorities lie.

Our children deserve better than the 19th century assembly-line approach. They deserve learning environments that are agile, relevant, exciting. Every student deserves a customized, self-paced, and challenging life-long learning journey. Schools should be open to all students – no matter where they’re growing up or how much their parents make.

That means no more discrimination based upon zip code or socio-economic status. All means all.

It’s about educational freedom! Freedom from Washington mandates. Freedom from centralized control. Freedom from a one-size-fits-all mentality. Freedom from “the system.”

Choice in education is not when a student picks a different classroom in this building or that building, uses this voucher or that tax-credit scholarship. Choice in education is bigger than that. Those are just mechanisms.

It’s about freedom to learn. Freedom to learn differently. Freedom to explore. Freedom to fail, to learn from falling and to get back up and try again. It’s freedom to find the best way to learn and grow… to find the exciting and engaging combination that unlocks individual potential.

Which leads to my final point: if America’s students are to be prepared, we must rethink school.

What I propose is not another top-down, federal government policy that promises to be a silver bullet. No. We need a paradigm shift, a fundamental reorientation… a rethink.

“Rethink” means we question everything to ensure nothing limits a student from pursuing his or her passion, and achieving his or her potential. So each student is prepared at every turn for what comes next.

It’s past time to ask some of the questions that often get labeled as “non-negotiable” or just don’t get asked at all:

Why do we group students by age?
Why do schools close for the summer?
Why must the school day start with the rise of the sun?
Why are schools assigned by your address?
Why do students have to go to a school building in the first place?
Why is choice only available to those who can buy their way out? Or buy their way in?
Why can’t a student learn at his or her own pace?
Why isn’t technology more widely embraced in schools?
Why do we limit what a student can learn based upon the faculty and facilities available?

Why?

We must answer these questions. We must acknowledge what is and what is not working for students.

Now, I don’t have all the answers or policy prescriptions. No one person does. But people do know how to help their neighbors. People do know how they can help a dozen students here or 100 there. Because they know the students. They know their home lives. They know their communities. They know their parents. They know each other.

That means learning can, should, and will look different for each unique child. And we should celebrate that, not fear it!

I’m well aware that change — the unknown – can be scary. That talk of fundamentally rethinking our approach to education seems impossible, insurmountable.

But not changing is scarier. Stagnation creates risks of its own. The reality is…

we should be horrified of not changing.

Our children don’t fear their futures. Think of a newborn, born into hope — not fear. They begin life with a clean slate. With a fresh set of eyes to see things we don’t currently see. That’s how students begin their lifelong learning journeys… with unlimited potential… yet with limited time.

Their dreams, their hopes, their aspirations, their futures can’t wait, while another wave of lawmakers puts yet another coat of paint on the broken “system.” One year may not seem like much to an adult, but it’s much too long for the child who still can’t read “Goodnight Moon.”

We, the public, can’t wait either. Education is good for the public.

Everything else – our health, our economy, our continued security as a nation — depends on what we do today for the leaders of tomorrow. It follows, then, that any educator in any learning environment serves the public good. If the purpose of public education is to educate the public, then it should… not… matter what word comes before school.

What matters are the students the school serves. What matters are their futures. We’ve been entrusted with their futures not because we asked to be, but because it’s a duty to destiny – theirs… and ours. It all depends on what we do now.

When our grandchildren tell their children about this moment in history, let them say we were the ones who finally put students first.

Thank you, and I look forward to this conversation.

[Transcript Link]

More Winning !!

Meanwhile… the fake news media are cats chasing Trump’s dancing laser pointer…

MAGAnomics – Stunning 2017 Holiday Season Sales Results Exceed All Forecasts, DOW Breaks 26,000…


MAGAnomics – The first round of economic results from 2017 holiday sales are coming in and the results are incredible. Total holiday sales from November and December increased 5.5% over the prior year, that’s a massive jump.

Keep in mind, two-thirds of GDP is attached to consumer spending.  The spending jump to $692 billion will increase fourth quarter GDP growth when calculated.

(Via CNBC) Holiday sales jumped 5.5 percent compared with last year, marking the largest jump seen since the end of the Great Recession, the National Retail Federation said Friday.

Total sales for November and December were $691.9 billion, exceeding the industry trade group’s forecast of between $678.75 billion and $682 billion, which would have been an increase of between 3.6 and 4 percent.

“We knew going in that retailers were going to have a good holiday season but the results are even better than anything we could have hoped for,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said.

Economists and advisors had expected robust spending across the board due to strong employment and consumer confidence. However, many questioned exactly where that increased spending would go.

Over the holidays, the strongest performers were building materials and supply stores (8.1 percent growth ), furniture (7.5 percent growth) and electronics (6.7 percent growth). Clothing/accessories and health/personal care clocked in weaker growth, up 2.7 percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.  (read more)

Sarah Sanders White House Press Briefing – Wednesday January 17th (Video)…


Sarah Huckabee Sanders delivers the White House press briefing for Wednesday January 17th.  Secretary Sanders is joined by a DOJ official to help show the connection between immigration policy and the evolving threat from terrorism.

Department of Justice, Asst. Attorney General Ed O’Callahan (part of the National Security Division), delivered remarks on the Departments of Justice and Homeland Security Release Data Release on Terrorism-Related Activity –SEE HERE-

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U.S. Dept of Justice – Today, the Department of Justice (DOJ) and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) released a report, revealing that three out of every four, or 402, individuals convicted of international terrorism-related charges in U.S. federal courts between September 11, 2001, and December 31, 2016 were foreign-born.

Over the same period, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement removed approximately 1,716 aliens with national security concerns. Further, in 2017 alone DHS had 2,554 encounters with individuals on the terrorist watch list (also known as the FBI’s Terrorist Screening Database) traveling to the United States.  (continue reading)

Stunningly Rude and Disrespectful Conduct by CNN’s Jim Acosta…


CNN Chief White House Correspondent Jim Acosta has a history of rude journalistic behavior and disrespect that has never before been allowed in the White House.

Today during an oval office meeting between President Trump and President Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan the CNN journalist exhibited a level of disrespectful behavior that should lead to his White House press credentials being revoked permanently.

China Credit Rating Agency Downgrade USA


The Chinese rating agency Dagong downgraded the US creditworthiness over the tax reform. What is really a total joke is why anyone bothers to rank any government debt whatsoever when in fact there is not a single government in the world who ever intends to pay off their debt. So why does anybody rate government debt? It is not like the USA would default. Deficits mean absolutely nothing. Obama’s first four years produced deficits that were nearly $5 trillion. Trump’s Tax Reform the Democrats claim will add $1 trillion. So why was $5 trillion OK but $1 trillion is not?

The entire rating game is a joke. Nobody will ever pay off their debts so why rate something that is impossible anyway?

Euro – Capital Flows or Speculation?


QUESTION: Is the euro really going up on capital inflows or speculation leverage?

ANSWER: We are not picking up any real net capital outflows from the USA to Europe. It appears to be speculation on the currency markets in anticipation of higher interest rates coming down the line. But real capital has not begun to move and will not seriously move in until there are higher positive rates.

More concerning has been net outflows from the USA to emerging market debt. This has been a trend led by pension funds trying to earn higher yields. They need higher returns to try to cover net losses in interest income because of the lower rates. This is very dangerous for when the dollar reverses and rises into 2021, that emerging market debt will go into default. This will only further the Monetary Crisis we see coming in the 2020-2021 time period. Meanwhile, Excess Reserves at the Fed rose during 2017 up from the low in 2016. European banks have been parking cash at the Fed since 2016 to avoid the negative rates at the ECB. We need to see that rate rise at the ECB back to a positive return before the banks will return that capital.

The Precision of Markets is Beyond Belief – But It is Why The Majority is Always Wrong


COMMENT: Marty; I really do not know how anyone cannot recognize what you have discovered. The euro began its breakout precise on your target of the ECM on November 22 last year. You have proven beyond a doubt that there is a hidden order to everything if we care to just look.

My hat is off to you.

REPLY: Yes, the Euro broke out above the Downtrend line, then fell back to retest it on the 21st reaching 11713 when the support was 11708.  It turned back up precisely on the 22nd. These things amaze me. I try to emphasize all the time that this is not me making forecasts in so many markets. There is a hidden order that exists if we do just pay attention.

Nevertheless, on the higher up level of the ECN, that turning point was the 24th, which was that Friday. So it was a perfect fit even for the week as well.

Now, here is the Dow Jones Industrials. It too changed course and exploded after the precise target on the ECM of the week of November 24th.

Here is Crude Oil and how it responded. How markets interact at critical periods identifies the trend it will take. The whole key is to abandon personal opinion. You have to stop trying to always rationalize a move by reducing it to a single explanation

60% of Japanese Girls Are Not Dating & Are Younger Girls Looking for Older Men a Return of the Cycle?


Culture is changing and much seems to be reverting back to the way it was before Socialism. Before the 1930s, there was typically a large age differe4nce between couples. The boy had to become a man and then approach the father to ask for her hand. He would have to demonstrate that he was capable of taking care of her. After Socialism when the government replaced old family traditions, the age differential collapsed. The common complaint girls have today is that boys in their 20s are immature. In Japan, this has manifested into what is called the “celibacy syndrome” where girls are not interested even in dating no less marriage. Now about 60% of eligible girls are not interested in dating. The high unemployment among the youth, in Europe especially, also has driven younger women to now seek older men for husbands who are (1) mature and not addicted to video games, and (2) have the means to support a family.

Other studies are uncovering interesting facts about age differences. Men ‘live longer’ if they marry a younger woman. Perhaps the natural balance was the way things were before Socialism. The boy had to first become a man before he was ready for a wife. What many girls complain about boys lacking maturity is often expressed that they are raised being told they can be independent whereas boys are raised these days telling them to have fun for there is plenty of time to settle down. It may be possible that girls are being prepared for life faster than boys in addition to the biological clock.

Just maybe, Socialism has disrupted a lot more than people think. Couples used to have several children for their retirement was the family unit. When Socialism came into play, family size reduced dropping from an average of nearly 5 to 2.5. In 1790, having more than 5 children accounted for 35.8% which is now only 1% of households. Children, who once saved to take care of their parents in old age, are no longer responsible. Government social programs take care of that. In the USA, it is Social Security which replaced the family structure. Socialism may have changed a lot more than saving to take care of the parents in old age. Altering the age differential of couples may also have also profoundly changed to our social structure and girls are naturally now either not interested in marriage or are looking for older men. The future of society may be starkly different than people suspect.

Can Government Really Prevent War?


QUESTION: Martin,

So much common sense from you. But, re the almost total corruption of government, could this be the ONLY practical solution?

That is:
1. Elect Politicians directly, at random, from the general, law abiding population for a fixed term with no possibility of re-election
2. Pay them well, with jobs/careers guaranteed and severe prison time for any corrupt activity

Of course, lots of other issues, all surmountable – but these principles are sacrosanct.

Could it be any worse than the current appalling corrupt situation?

Regards
IW

PS I understand this system was tried in ancient Greece and Italy around WW1. We might be better at the logistics now?

ANSWER: No there is no other choice. Thrasymachus (c 459-400BC) put it best: all forms of government become the same as they all act in their own self-interest. We really need a bureaucracy to run, but they MUST be accountable to elected people who are by NO MEANS career politicians. The European Project and the entire theory of federalizing Europe has been to supposedly prevent war by devolving everything to a single government. If there are no career politicians, then this will do far more to reduce the threat of war than any other step we can take toward securing our future.

A single government that is still not answerable to the people will not cut it. This is precisely the design of the European Project to eliminate any democratic process because they assume the people are too stupid to understand their vision. Those who dictate the trend of Europe known as the Troika, rule without any accountability to the people. There is no democratic process that any of them have to face. This is the European Project – a single government free of any democratic check and balance all justified to prevent war.