Category Climate Change

Dec 13 2021

Sunday Talk Warning, Mohamed El-Erian Concedes His Economic Views Are Now Contingent Upon Climate Change Driving Policy


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on December 12, 2021 | Sundance | 145 Comments

Well, there’s another “economist” who can be set into the folder of ‘no longer useful’.  During his appearance today on CBS Face The Nation, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser for Allianz, finishes his segment by revealing his underlying precept: Climate Change policy is now the economic policy driver of all his investment advice.

Within the interview, El-Erian said the “characterization of inflation as transitory is probably the worst inflation call in the history of the Federal Reserve.”  Additionally, El-Erian said inflation is likely to remain high into the next year and perhaps beyond.  Unfortunately, other than those two points of generally well educated accuracy, everything else is wrapped up in the political correctness of climate change…. which, you don’t really discover until the very end of the interview. WATCH:

The baseline for El-Erian saying the Build Back Better spending fiasco is a good thing, is based on accepting the pretense that massive amounts of federal spending will be needed to structurally change the U.S. economy from fossil fuel use to the Green New Deal.   If you do not believe in this transformation, there is no merit to any component of the BBB spending proposal. It really is that simple.

As a consequence, El-Erian is staking the position that climate change agenda politics is now the focal point from which all other economic policy will be determined.  He has conceded in his mind and worldview, perhaps based on his associations and peer discussions, that any forward economic analysis must therefore establish itself from the alternative fuel position.

It is only from the position that climate change is baked into forward economic outlooks that El-Erian can state inflation is structurally survivable, at the current level, with additional spending by federal government.

If he’s right…if congress does pass the BBB/GND at a level they are currently debating, then inflation will rise at/near current levels through Jan, Feb, March, then plateau around March/April for a few months, and then spike again -even higher- sometime around the spring 2022.

Keep in mind, in order for inflation to spike again in 2022, it will be building upon the prior massive inflationary step of 2021, because inflation is a measure of the percent change in prices year over year.

In 2021, we experienced around a 5% jump in overall CPI prices starting in the spring.  That initial inflation jump cycles through at the same time next year, and you would expect the rate of inflation to drop or stabilize once the comparison period is passed in 2022.   If the BBB bill is passed, the rate will jump again even when it cycles through the calendar.

  • Example: December 2020 bread was $3.00
  • December 2021 bread is $4.00  (25% increase over 2020)
  • June 2022 bread at $5.00 is a 20% increase over 2021.  Price difference same, but the rate of inflation is lower.

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Imagine the prices in the scenario above if the rate of inflation in 2022 is the same or higher than 2021.  That’s the part people need to start thinking about now.

  • Example-2:  December 2020 Gasoline was $2.00/gal
  • December 2021 Gasoline is $3/gal (50% increase)
  • June 2022 Gasoline is $4.50/gal (50% increase), $5/gal, $5.50/gal etc

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The downstream consequences of interim energy policy shifts are major increases in current energy costs.

Few people realize how much everything jumps in price simply because oil, gas and energy costs increase.  The entire process of creating stuff (raw materials), moving stuff, processing stuff (intermediate), transporting stuff, finishing stuff, shipping stuff, storing stuff, distributing stuff and selling stuff becomes a rising cumulative cost inside the supply chain.

When energy prices go up, a snowball effect starts traveling down the mountain getting bigger and bigger as it heads towards your house.

As Obama said, “Under my administration, energy prices will necessarily skyrocket“, but he could never actually do the structural energy change because: (1) Republicans took control of the House in January 2011; and (2) the economic blast damage would have been just too catastrophic for any attempt at re-election in 2012.

Joe Biden frees the leftists from those ideological constraints.

Everything you would normally consider to be a concern, anything that would limit the extremes of any legislative effort, has been removed. They plan to lose next year, so they have nothing to lose right now.

Joe Biden is an appointed figurehead for a background agenda driven by Obama’s Chicago Marxists and the global leftists.

The Biden far-left policy agenda is strategically a massive throw everything at the legislative process, in an effort to create major change in a short period of time.  COVID is being used as the cover story, Biden is the disposable front man, and Nancy Pelosi is the facilitating legislative cohort.

Massive inflation, skyrocketing gas prices, collapsed supply chains, empty shelves or shortages in products, increased crime, devalued dollar, diminished international influence, horrible polling, predictable political consequences, none of this matters because Biden is disposable to the agenda.

Additionally, there are no limits to the obvious lies they will tell, because no one inside the administration cares about any public impact. This current effort is to drive the agenda regardless of political damage that can only catch them, or block them, in the 2022 mid-term election.

The “Green New Deal” legislation *is* the “Build Back Better” legislation.  Once they get that bill passed, it’s mission accomplished.  This is a legacy move for Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell and Joe Biden.  This is the fundamental change part.

It appears in the interview with CBS Margaret Brennan, Mohamed El-Erian is accepting this Build Back Better legislation (or something similar) will pass the Senate and be enacted into law.   At the very least, he is accepting that ‘climate change policy’ is now fundamentally accepted by U.S. voters.  That perspective forms the baseline for him saying the climate change agenda is now baked into the U.S. economy, and inflation will have to be accepted – albeit at a debatable scale.

I hope El-Erian is wrong, because he is massively underestimating the scale of what will happen with total economic inflation as a consequence.

Factually, I think his analysis is corrupted by his associations on Wall Street.  The elites (in his circle) think We The People are not smart enough to see what can happen if this complete transformation of the U.S. energy system is changed; or as healthcare policy architect Jonathan Gruber later said publicly, “We relied upon the stupidity of the American voter” to create Obamacare, the transformation in the healthcare system.

I am cautiously optimistic they are both wrong right now, although I can also see how this COVID noise is providing them a lot of cover.

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Dec 10 2021

The Hoax of Biden’s Democracy Summit


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Dec 10, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

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The #1 Fake News Network in the world, CNN, has gone after China and Russia for calling Biden’s Summit of Democracy a joke. Of course, CNN apparently does not know how to pick up a dictionary. Here in the United States, we have a republic – not a democracy. And in Europe, the whole political structure is a fraud for the people neither vote for anyone on the European Commission nor they do not vote for the head of state.

I suppose they never actually listened to the words of the Pledge of Allegiance to the Flag:

“I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands,

one Nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all,”

It explicitly states that the US is NOT a Democracy but a Republic. It is a joke that politicians pretend that we live in a democracy when we do not and Klaus Schwab’s 2030 agenda included the end of the right to even vote. Moreover, the press is no longer free and it is pushing its own agenda.

They refuse to investigate anything to do with COVID or the conflicts of interest elevating Gates to a world health czar who is not even a doctor any more than Schwab or the head of the WHO. The press has fully embraced the canceled culture and thinks “freedom of the press” means they get to report only what supports their agenda.

Here are the definitions of Democracy and Republic which Europe does not fit either. If CNN was honest, they would actually have to agree with the criticism of both Russia and China for the West is a Republic, and would never allow a democracy for then the people would vote on all of these spending issues instead of our pretend representatives since we are a Republic – not a Democracy.

So sorry, Biden’s Summit of Democracy is indeed a joke. Nowhere in the West do the people live in a democracy. It is all a republic and Europe does not even qualify as a republic it is closer to China and Russia than the United States. Historically, republics always die by their own hand – economic suicide which is unfolding perfectly once again. At some point, there will be a new version of Caesar who will cross the Rubicon.

Dec 7 2021

It’s Looking A Lot Like Frozen Winterland


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Dec 7, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The weather is following what our computer has been forecasting using historical data and correlating history to ascertain the cyclical nature of weather. The ice has now grown larger than the global warming crowd has ever predicted. This threatens Europe with a very cold winter that will further endanger food production.

The entire problem with the claimed research into climate change is that they have begun with pre-determined conclusions that the air was free of things such as lead preindustrial revolution, which the ice core samples have proven to be false. What has emerged is that the assumption that preindustrial levels of lead in the air were negligible, safe, or nonexistent is completely false. Next‐generation laser technology in climate science, in combination with detailed historical and archaeological records, has revealed a different history. The lead levels in the air have been elevated for the past 2000 years.

As long as the research begins with a pre-determined conclusion, it will always sift through the data and cherry-pick only that which supports the desired conclusion. During this Little Ice Age, glaciers advanced in mountain valleys and actually destroyed many European settlements. Paintings from the 1600s depict people ice skating on the Thames River in London like this one showing the frozen Thames in a painting by Abraham Hondius from 1677.

A Volcano & the Last Little Ice Age | Armstrong Economics

Even the canals in Amsterdam were frozen. It remained cold for nearly 200 years. There were ice fairs into the late 1600s as shown in this painting from 1683. However, the winters were brutal even into the late 1700s and early 1800s, although gradually warmer from the depths of the 1600 period.

The Post Office even issued commemorative stamps in 1976, noting that winter event. Washington and his troops suffered more in Morristown, N.J., during the Hard Winter of 1779-80. Violent snowstorms had battered the Northeast, and both Boston and New York harbors were completely frozen over. The weather made it impossible to bring supplies to the men, many of whom had no coats or even shoes. They couldn’t even eat for days at a time. The soldiers finally mutinied in early May, though an officer persuaded them to abandon their rebellion. Just as the weather had defeated Napoleon, weather nearly defeated the American Revolution.

I have warned that volcanic activity correlates with the solar minimum, which we have been heading into since 2015. In fact, this has been the sharpest decline in the energy of the sun that we know of. It has been exceptionally declining since 2015, which was the peak of the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). Since the ECM was constructed from economic data, it is interesting how the cyclical nature of the economy aligns with Mother Nature herself.

There have been 215 major volcanic eruptions since 10,900 BC. Two massive eruptions changed the climate – (1) Tambora in 1815 and (2) Samalas in 1257.

In 1257, a catastrophic eruption occurred at the Samalas volcano on the Indonesian island of Lombok, which was a 7, making it one of the largest volcanic eruptions in modern history. It is worth noting that the two largest eruptions in modern history both took place in Indonesia.

Samalas wiped out human habitations, including the city of Pamatan, which was the capital of a kingdom on Lombok. The eruption injected into the atmosphere was massive and it reduced the solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface, causing a volcanic winter. This led to famines and crop failures in Europe and elsewhere. It is believed that this eruption became the trigger for the subsequent Little Ice Age and a centuries-long cold period during the last thousand years. The first evidence of the eruption was discovered in the ice core samples around 1257, providing strong evidence of a large volcanic eruption impacted the entire world. Finally, in 2013, scientists were able to link the historical records about Mount Samalas to these spikes in the ice cores.

By 1258, Henry III of England became very unpopular as the weather turned cold and people were starving. It was 1257 when Henry issued the first gold coin of England which is extremely rare. Taxation became a hot topic because of his expensive foreign policies and the role of his local officials in collecting taxes and debts. A coalition of his barons seized power in a coup d’état and expelled the Poitevins, the king’s favorites, from England. They instigated political reform of the royal government through a process called the Provisions of Oxford. Henry was forced to sue for peace with France in 1259, and Henry gave up his rights to his other lands in France in return for King Louis IX recognizing him as the rightful ruler of Gascony. The baronial regime collapsed but Henry was unable to reform a stable government and instability across England continued.

But this also slowed the Mogol invasion of Europe. The weather data preserved in tree rings points to a series of warm, dry summers in Europe until 1242 when temperatures dropped and rainfall increased. The local climate shifted to a wetter and colder environment which caused flooding of the formerly dry grasslands and created a marshy terrain. Those conditions would have been less than ideal for the nomadic Mongol cavalry and their encampments. The Mongols were horsemen and this reduced their mobility and pastureland, curtailing their invasion into Europe west of the Hungarian plain.

The worst possible future will be a volcanic winter occurring over the next 13 years.

Nov 18 2021

Biden’s Failed Talks with China


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Nov 18, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

In all honesty, Biden is clearly out of it, and his handlers are only interested in bringing the Great Reset to dominate the world. I believe COVID-19 was deliberately leaked into China because there were far too many sources of a “virus is coming” by December 2019.  I believe it was deliberately released in China with the intention that they thought they could force China, out of embarrassment, to join this globalist agenda. That strategy failed, and all the finger-pointing and name-calling branding this as the CCP Virus has unleashed the necessary elements for war.

In China, the Chinese box office is the largest in the world. The new movie, “The Battle at Lake Changjin,” has been the biggest film in the international movie market that has beaten everything put out by Hollywood. It is the subject that is alarming. This portrays war between the United States and China and the United States is defeated. This is very important. Just as the Democrats kept blaming Russia for interfering in the US election, that scenario resulted in 70% of Americans believing Russia was the enemy. This movie portrays America as the enemy who is putting the shoe on the other foot. That same tactic is now pointing the finger at America, and we have Americans blaming China for the virus and China blaming America for planting the virus.

Biden will NEVER allow an investigation of COVID, and he will protect Fauci at all costs. I continue to believe the release of COVID was deliberate, for all the pieces were in place, and they rolled out the Great Reset in just a couple of weeks. They have taken over the Western world, and it appears that politicians have been bribed to betray their own people.

This plot is not rational. It was hatched only in the mind of an academic who lives in a world of theory. They have actually argued that Marxism would have worked if they had America and Europe as well. This time, they are trying to transform the world in their theoretical Marxist Wonderland.

They have weakened the economies of the West, but instead of convincing China and Russia to join, they will now see their golden opportunity to defeat America and Europe. What fools these mortals be!

Nov 12 2021

Diagnosis: Climate Change


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Nov 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

For the first time in history, a doctor has diagnosed a patient with the ailment of “climate change.” A Canadian doctor from British Columbia treated a patient with asthma, diabetes, and heart failure who was struggling to breathe after wildfires in the Kootenays region. Dr. Kyle Merritt officially diagnosed the patient as suffering from “climate change.”

“If we’re not looking at the underlying cause, and we’re just treating the symptoms, we’re just gonna [sic] keep falling further and further behind,” Merritt boldly claimed. This is outright medical negligence and fraud. How exactly is someone supposed to be treated for climate change? How is it even legal for a doctor to claim such an ailment?

“She has diabetes. She has some heart failure…She lives in a trailer, no air conditioning,” Merritt said of his patient, who is in her 70s. “All of her health problems have all been worsened. And she’s really struggling to stay hydrated.” Diabetes, asthma, heart failure – these are all treatable and real conditions. Obviously, the way this patient is living is contributing to her deteriorating health. No one needs medical training to see the clear changes this patient could make to better her condition. Instead, the doctor gave her what seems to be a potentially terminal diagnosis as there is and never will be a solution to change the cyclical patterns of climate.

This doctor is yet another sheep following the herd to push forward an agenda that is anti-human rights. I expect other patients with treatable illnesses to receive this terminal diagnosis, and the climate change crowd will cheer as people die as martyrs for their cause. Revoke this quack’s medical license immediately!

Nov 12 2021

Biden Considering Cutting off Heat for Michigan


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Nov 12, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

President Joe Biden’s Administration is looking to terminate Enbridge Inc.’s Line 5 pipeline from Canada to Michigan. These environmental people who are really controlling the Biden Administration couldn’t be happier if the world population was reduced by 50%.

Biden shut down the Keystone Pipeline from Alberta, but what people do not realize is the environmentalists are out for blood. They are pushing to shut down pipeline #5 that supplies a large portion of Michigan homes the energy to stay warm. Line 5 supplies 65% of the propane demand of the upper portion of the state and 55% of Michigan’s statewide propane needs. Overall, line 5 transports up to 540,000 barrels per day (bpd) of light crude oil, light synthetic crude, and natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are refined into propane.

These environmentalists want fossil fuels terminated now, despite the fact that renewables will never be able to power everything as is. There will not even be internet full-time. If the Democrats listen to this agenda, when people are freezing, and their elderly family members die from the lack of heat in winter, I seriously doubt that they will find welcoming support in Michigan if they shut down Pipeline #5

Nov 9 2021

A Conversation On Carbon Dioxide and Climate


This post contains a link to a discussion on Climate and Carbon Dioxide. The image below is a screen shot of the home page where the Conversation was posted on Nov 6th and 7th 2021

On November 3, 2021, I recorded a presentation that was broadcast on November 6th and 7th and then made available on the America Out Loud website. The subject is Carbon Dioxide and why it is not changing the temperature of the planet. Click on the following link ….

Once there, there is an image of clouds in a blue sky with some clouds spelling out CO2. Below that is a rectangle as wide as the image with a yellow box on the left. In the box is a white arrow pointing to the right. nest to the box is a circle with and arrow in it. Click on the circle and it will start start the audio. The interview is just under an hour long.

Either before or after listening to the dissuasion there is a link below the rectangle with some text from the presentation and below that is a link to a paper on this subject with additional information. The link is as shown below.

“SCOTUS Decision to Review EPA’s Authority to Regulate Carbon Dioxide is a Victory,” by Dr. Jay Lehr and Tom Harris, November 2, 2021, America Out Loud

Nov 8 2021

Sunday Talks, Incompetent and Ideological Energy Secretary Says You Will Pay Historic Rates For Home Heating, and There is Nothing They Can Do About It


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 7, 2021 | Sundance | 204 Comments

A comprehensively incompetent U.S. Energy Secretary, Jennifer Granholm, has the audacity to say that Biden’s administration has no responsibility for gas prices likely to reach $4/gal, and Americans this year are almost certain to pay historic amounts for home heating oil and natural gas.

Everything in this soundbite from her interview with CNN is stunningly false, manipulative and misleading.   The U.S. has an abundant amount of energy resources, likely more oil than all other OPEC countries combined in Alaska alone.   The issue is a current administration that refuses to extract oil and natural gas because they are purposefully and intentionally intent on destroying the U.S. economy under the guise of climate change.

Granholm admits that gasoline is likely to go beyond $4/gal in the national average, and home heating costs are almost certain to crush Americans this year.  Infuriating to see such willful stupidity go unchallenged.  WATCH:

So what can a U.S. President and administration specifically do?

We have abundant U.S. energy resources.  Quite literally the strongest in the entire world.

  • Permit the use of preexisting approved leases in ANWAR (Alaska) to put more volume into the Alaskan oil pipeline that is severely underutilized.
  • Finish the Dakota access pipeline.
  • Reapprove the preexisting energy leases in New Mexico, Arizona, NE Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
  • Retract the stoppage of the Keystone pipeline to permit efficient oil transport shipments from Canada.
  • Stop blocking the expansion of coastal oil refineries in Texas, Louisiana and Alabama (regulatory issue), as well as Northwest, Northeast and Southeast Seaboard.
  • Continue to develop natural gas as a clean burning fuel.
  • Drive Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as an export.

None of this requires any approval from OPEC.  Strategically, the all of the above approach enhances U.S. national security and diminishes the influence of Russia, China and Iran.  Within six months of the above, gasoline will plummet.

Nov 7 2021

During NASA Visit Kamala Harris Advocates for Rush Song Lyrics to Lead Policy for Environmental Justice


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 6, 2021 | Sundance | 213 Comments

Quite remarkably yesterday, the affirmative action politician known as Kamala Harris advocated for the implementation of a social justice standard based on the lyrics of a 1978 rock song by the band Rush.   Yeah, this actually happened.

With a southern border in crisis, an economy in a state of chaos and massive inflation crushing the American people, Kamala Harris is worried about environmental racism and trees not getting enough social justice.  WATCH:

RUSH – The Trees

“There is unrest in the Forest
There is trouble with the trees
For the Maples want more sunlight
And the Oaks ignore their pleas.

The trouble with the Maples
(And they’re quite convinced they’re right)
They say the Oaks are just too lofty
And they grab up all the light
But the Oaks can’t help their feelings
If they like the way they’re made
And they wonder why the Maples
Can’t be happy in their shade?

There is trouble in the Forest
And the creatures all have fled
As the Maples scream ‘Oppression!’
And the Oaks, just shake their heads

So the Maples formed a Union
And demanded equal rights
‘The Oaks are just too greedy
We will make them give us light’
Now there’s no more Oak oppression
For they passed a noble law
And the trees are all kept equal
By hatchet,
Axe,
And saw…”

Nov 6 2021

Energy Secretary Erupts in Laughter When Asked if Biden Administration Will Start Increasing U.S. Oil Production


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 5, 2021 | Sundance | 19 Comments

Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm was asked what the Biden administration plan was to increase U.S. oil production.  Her response is exactly what you might believe it would be from a thoroughly incompetent ideological administration.  WATCH:

So what can a U.S. President and administration specifically do?

We have abundant U.S. energy resources.  Quite literally the strongest in the entire world.

  • Permit the use of preexisting approved leases in ANWAR (Alaska) to put more volume into the Alaskan oil pipeline that is severely underutilized.
  • Finish the Dakota access pipeline.
  • Reapprove the preexisting energy leases in New Mexico, Arizona, NE Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.
  • Retract the stoppage of the Keystone pipeline to permit efficient oil transport shipments from Canada.
  • Stop blocking the expansion of coastal oil refineries in Texas, Louisiana and Alabama (regulatory issue), as well as Northwest, Northeast and Southeast Seaboard.
  • Continue to develop natural gas as a clean burning fuel.
  • Drive Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as an export.

None of this requires any approval from OPEC.  Strategically, the all of the above approach enhances U.S. national security and diminishes the influence of Russia, China and Iran.  Within six months of the above, gasoline will plummet