Category Economic Subjects

Nov 28 2017

Illinois Supreme Court Rules Against Pensions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Pension Crisis

Re-Posted Nov 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Illinois Supreme Court has used STRICT CONSTRUCTION to defend the State against State Employee pensions that have been bankrupting the State. Previously, back in 2014, the  Supreme Court ruled that health care benefits provided to state employees were a “permanent benefit” guaranteed by the state constitution. That has led to a complete disaster as healthcare costs have risen out of control thanks to Obamacare, which handed insurance companies more money and a monopoly status that everyone had to have insurance even the y7outh who never used it.

Those health care costs are destroying the fabric of the entire economy pushing pension costs over the top. The Supreme Court is mindful of the disaster he caused with its 2014 ruling and they have been obvious under political pressure to reverse it. They figured a way to do this using STRICT CONSTRUCTION. Therefore, the benefit cannot be greater than what was expressed in the statute. Consequently, they now delivered a six-word ruling on Thanksgiving eve refusing to hear the retirees’ appeal of a state Appellate Court ruling that essentially upheld Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s now-completed, three-year phase-out of retiree health care coverage.

The Supreme Court magically taketh away with one hand what the previous hand gave.“For the city, this is a huge benefit. The amount in government pensions for health care is dropping from $137 million a year to between $7 million and $8 million. Effectively, The courts have now held that you cannot rely on anything the city tells you unless you can prove that person had authority to bind the city.

In December 2015, the court ruled that the city employee pension funds have an obligation to provide and subsidize retiree health care with funds provided by the city, but only at levels outlined in 1983 and 1985 amendments to the state’s pension code. That is the key. The statue only guaranteed subsidy amounts to $55-a-month for police and fire retirees not eligible for Medicare and $21 for those who are. For retirees covered by the Municipal Employees and Laborers pension funds, the guaranteed monthly subsidy amounts to just $25. The explosion in health care insurance which Congress has done nothing about is undermining the pensions and will explode in crisis resulting in civil unrest over the next 5 years.

Courts are put in place by politicians. When ruling will go against the government, judges are word-smiths. They know how to ignore the law when they must. This is all part of how the system collapses. Once the Rule of Law fails, nothing will SURVIVE. It is time to turn out the lights.

Nov 28 2017

Renminbi v the Dollar


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

Re-Posted Nov 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The dollar haters have been touting that the Chinese yuan, or otherwise known as the renminbi, would kill the dollar and gold will soar. I have warned that China will take the spotlight as the Financial Capital of the World once again but only after 2032. A real assessment of international capital flows reveals the truth. The Chinese renminbi accounts for only a share of 1.85% share of the international cash flows. In fact, the renminbi’s global share has declined from nearly 2.5% of total global capital flows in 2015, for that was its peak in September 2015 actually on target with the Economic Confidence Model. So despite all the fanfare, China has entered a decline since 2015 – not a rally to kill the dollar.

gold-natl-debt-quantity-of-money

The Beijing government has opened foreign capital markets in recent years. Since 2016, China’s currency has officially been the fifth world currency of the International Monetary Fund alongside the dollar, euro, yen and British pound. That was supposed to kill the dollar. That had zero impact contrary to the dollar haters who concoct endless scenarios to paint the picture of the end of the dollar. One has to wonder why people continue to read these people. They have NEVER been right. They have used the scare-tactics that increasing the money supply would devastate the dollar and create hyperinflation. Another failed scenario. They there was the one about China was going to trade “real” gold, not paper futures as in New York COMEX. That one was supposed to kill the COMEX and everyone would rush to China. Well, that did not happen either. They lack any comprehension of how the world functions and were blind to the fact that by starting with gold trading in yuan, it was a tiny test market for the floating of the yuan itself. It would allow arbitrage between New York and China yielding the next difference being the yuan. Buy gold in China and sell it in New York, and the difference is the currency. So they got that one wrong and the both the COMEX and the dollar managed to survive.

There continues to be a willingness of Chinese policymakers and business leaders to help shape the currency, which is the world’s second-largest economy. For example, the Chinese will soon offer oil contracts in yuan as well and all of this is an indirect way of floating the currency. This willingness on the part of the Chineses government is why it will take time, but their economy will become the biggest in the world after 2032. What makes the US economy the biggest? The American consumer and lower taxes than Europe. When you leave more money in the hands of the people, they spend it creating jobs for everyone. Europe is following Marx. They think the government is better equipped to spend other people’s money. That produces corruption, not economic growth.

As long as China keeps its tax rate low and allows the people to spend the benefits of their labour, then it will continue to rise to displace the West and they are blinded by power and pursue this Hunt forever more Taxes.

Nov 27 2017

Monopoly – Gov’t Violates its Own Anti-Trust Laws


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Nov 27, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty,

Really enjoyed the WEC. My only disappointment was not getting to meet you at the Friday evening event and share a drink and a few minuets conversation. Next time for sure.

By the way, your team and especially your daughter were absolutely terrific. Very helpful and efficient.

Just read your piece on the Leonardo de Vinci’s painting.  Of special interest I note your statement:

That is counter to capitalism which dictates that prices decline with scale. Government costs rise with the scale showing something is just not right!

By definition, the ability to raise costs (prices) on increasing volume (scale) makes that entity a predatory Monopoly. That is the “something” that ‘is just not right’ about the whole thing.

Joe

REPLY: You are correct. Government violates its own anti-trust laws and proof of that is indeed just look at cities like Philadelphia and New York City. Both tax over and above all other municipal government around them. The Sherman Act is divided into three sections. Section 1 prohibits specific means of anti-competitive conduct. Section 2 deals with end results that are anti-competitive in nature. Thus, these sections prevent businesses from violating the spirit of the Act, while technically remaining within the letter of the law. Section 3 simply extends the provisions of Section 1 to U.S. territories and the District of Columbia. Since local government municipalities are actually corporations, it appears that there is no exception for a government corporation from the Act.

Section 1:
“Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, is declared to be illegal.”
Section 2:
“Every person who shall monopolize, or attempt to monopolize, or combine or conspire with any other person or persons, to monopolize any part of the trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, shall be deemed guilty of a felony…

A municipal corporation is a legal term for a local governing body, which includes cities, counties, towns, townships, charter townships, villages, and boroughs. The term can also be used to describe municipally-owned enterprises. Consequently, municipal corporations exist when such municipalities become self-governing entities under the laws of the state or province in which they are located. They receive a declaration of a municipal charter, which is actually a corporate certificate. Such charters are the legal document establishing a municipality.

Ford Motor Company created the assembly line in order to bring down the cost of a car from $850 in 1908 to $300 by 1925 so everyone could afford one. The price declines with scale. Government is clearly a monopoly because the cost of government only rises. They pass the laws and will seize your property or throw you in prison if you do not pay your taxes. That is EXACTLY the same scheme as the Mafia Protection scam – pay or you get trouble.

Government violates its own laws and acts the same as any criminal organization. They know then are a monopoly for they control the rule of law and the means of prosecution. This is a deadly combination that defeats liberty. There is no possible way that we live in a “free society” for we are “free” only as long as we obey whatever law they write even if it conflicts with the Ten Commandments, ethics, or morality.

 

Nov 25 2017

US v Europe Bank Analysis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts

RE-Posted Nov 25, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; It is becoming obvious which banks are following your model and putting a spin on it fundamentally and they seem to be outside the USA. Swiss banks are calling for a rally and Goldman Sachs calls for a decline. This is very curious indeed given that your enemy has been Goldman Sachs.

JH

ANSWER: Obviously, I am not at liberty to discuss such matters. With MIFID II, it is more curious as to how American banks will be able to put out such forecasts contrary to MIFID. I cannot reveal the plot just yet going on in Washington to deal with MIFID. Trust me, there is a very sinister plot afoot and when I reveal the scope you will be very surprised how the Trump Administration is being manipulated as has every Administration since Clinton.

Nov 24 2017

ECM Turning Point this Weekend


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Nov 24, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

The Turning Point on the ECM is this weekend. We do happen to have a Directional Change next week in the Dow with the next turning point due the week of 12/04 and that is followed by the week of 12/18. What is most curious, is the fact that the Dow, Euro, Gold, and Oil all have the same timing targets, with oil showing the week of 12/04 is the strongest.

We are witnessing the global markets beginning to align. This is implying that international expectations are starting to dominate domestic or isolated market fundamentals.

We do not expect this turning point to be a monumental one. What this reflects is the markets are starting to align preparing for 2018 and the beginning of a new round of fun and games.

Nov 24 2017

EU Concern Rising About Italian Debt


Armstrong Economics Blog/Italy

Posted Nov 24, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The EU Commission is deeply concerned that Italy is under pressure to spend frivolously because of the upcoming elections. The EU is apply more scrutiny for Italy’s huge sovereign debt. Because of the vast size of the Italian economy, the high level of total debt is a major cause for the Eurozone as a whole. The EU Commission sent a letter to the Italian government warning them not to deviate from the course of fiscal consolidation before the parliamentary elections in the spring.

Instead of creating simply a trade union, the idea that a single currency would save the day has seriously distorted reality. This idea of surrendering sovereignty by each member state to maintain a single currency if the worst possible design. Had the EU consolidated the debts and thereby created a federal EU debt, then each member state would have been responsible for themselves. In the USA, we have 50 states issuing debt in dollars, yet they have no part in the dollar. Had Europe consolidated the debts and drew the line in the sand at that moment, then states would be able to issue whatever debt the market would accept. This way, Brussels imposes austerity upon member states simply because they failed completely to comprehend the nation of the system they were creating.

Nov 24 2017

Fed Admits it Does Not Understand The Markets


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks

Re-Posted Nov 24, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; I must congratulate you on a fantastic conference. You explained that the central banks were clueless and that the Quantity Theory of Money was wrong and was being misapplied. Your Vertical Market Report explain that there were two types of vertical markets and nobody has ever discussed. Then this week, the London Financial Times reported that your head of the Fed, Janet Yellen, publicly admitted that the US Federal Reserve can not explain the development of inflation rates in the US this year. I was really taken back for you said exactly that at the conference.

You really do know what is going on behind the curtain.

Well done

Cheers

KT

REPLY. Yes, I am aware that Janet Yellen admitted on Tuesday that she does not understand the comparatively low rates of inflation, according to the Financial Times. This confirms what I have been saying that there are fundamental questions regarding the use of monetary policy of the central bank and the Quantity Theory of Money. The theory does not function as touted and it has been proven to be another myth along side rising interest rates causes the stock market to decline.

All of these theories have been created by attempting to create a single dimension cause and effect. There is much more complexity at stake which is just never taken into account. I went into great detail in the How to Trade a Vertical Market report to show WHY such booms and busts take place and they cannot be attributed to a single theory or monetary policy of the central banks. Such events took place long before there were even central banks.

Nov 23 2017

German Property Market – A Real Estate Bubble?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

RE-Posted Nov 23, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Asking €747,000

QUESTION: Possible Correlation with ECM-peak in Nov. 2017? Mr. Armstrong, just today I became aware of your story and your life’s work. Your theory is captivating, especially in the light of a series of unsettling changes in my work environment. All of this near Nov. 24-25, a predicted turning point within your ECM forecast. I am a self-employed agent, working mainly on behalf of a … German finance [company] which specializes in selling mortgages for public housing projects ….

Since it´s foundation … [we] operated with a strict lending limit of 80%. Upon so-called “customer-demand”, those limits have now been raised to enable 100% lending at almost the same interest rates (Nov. 9. 2017) while additionally allowing fixed interest rates for 25 years and amortization terms up to ca. 40 years. I have seen even more outrageous offers from competitors. These factors, combined with the unnaturally low-interest rates caused by the ECB, enable almost every household to acquire a house of one’s own.

However, these amortization terms fail to include future investments and a possible future increase in interest rates. In my opinion, households with an average income have a high risk of debt overload or at least a risk of constantly living in debt. It seems to me as if the public model of never repaying one’s debt is slowly being transferred to the private sector.

My observation might just be a small part of the picture, probably a peak in one minor cycle you observe. Yet it does make me feel uneasy, for this peak correlates with your next predicted ECM turning point. Although the public opinion states the opposite, I fear a massive housing bubble on the German market. Even minor changes in interest rates or household income could cause substantial problems for the average homeowner.

I would very much like to hear your thoughts on this subject. Please excuse my rusty English, I did not have practice for a very long time. Thank you in advance for your response. Also, I want you to know that I have the highest respect for your resolve in those times of imprisonment.

From Germany, FW

ANSWER: Unfortunately, Germany has allowed its own housing bubble not much different from the USA that burst in 2007. Normally, like fashion, things tend to start in Europe and then migrate to the USA. In the case of real estate, the value of property in areas such as Bavaria was very cheap compared to international levels. The market has been rising since 1996. Even back in 2015, Sparda Bank (http://www.sparda-bw.de) was offering just over 1% fixed rate mortgages for 10 years.

Our timing models do suggest that there is a pause in the trend due here in November (4th quarter). There should be a decline of softening in the market going into the first quarter of 2018. Thereafter, the trend will shift and the next big turning point will be the 4th quarter 2018.

The risk of fixed rates even out now for 25 years will not be on the back of the home-buyer. That risk will belong to the lenders. Yes, the ECB with its negative rates has caused tremendous distortions in the debt markets. They were unsuccessful in creating inflation or expanding the economy. What they have created is asset inflation, which does not show up in the economic statistics as they are focused upon by the media.

The central banks are focused on DEMAND inflation. That has been defeated by any expansion in the money supply is sterilized by a net rise in taxation. Consequently, the consumer is buying assets and hoarding cash. They are not spending it frivolously in dinner, wine, cloths, and song.

The risk to the borrower will be the rise in taxation that then eats into their disposable income. Lending 100%+ to buy houses is insane. Those who have no equity are highly prone to default. As this group defaults, they increase the supply of property coming to the market and thus all prices are suppressed. This is the process that creates the major high in REAL TERMS.

The homeowner who has equity will lose short-term. However, the euro will crack and in this regard, a low FIXED rate mortgage that they can maintain will be a HEDGE against the currency. The market will shift from asset inflation and cross-over to currency inflation.

Nonetheless, in terms of INTERNATIONAL VALUE, the market is peaking now in November. Housing prices have risen to world standards so the foreign capital will back off and not see this as cheap anymore. As the euro declines, then the property in real value terms globally will also decline.

Nov 22 2017

The Hidden Risk of Broker/Clearer


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted Nov 22, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for your work in “educating” us in your “University of the Conscious Investor”! My question relates to your “Trading a Vertical Market” report. I am slowly digesting this report which is truly fascinating and a must read for any rational minded investor. My experience tells me (and you have reaffirmed this within your report) that being able to trade correctly for the market is critical. In analyzing the correct actions we must take I have reached the conclusion that we must also investigate deeply the trading company we use and how any wild ride will impact their ability to actually fund the successful trades we have managed to get into and out of. I recently was issued new T&C’s for my accounts to accept and that makes for scary reading in the light of any major reset or mammoth gap or moves we anticipate. How would you recommend we evaluate the companies actually holding the bag to be able to pay up at the end of the day? This appears to me to be a most crucial question in the light of what Socrates is pointing out.

Be Well,

ANSWER: Yes, you are absolutely correct. Your broker/clearer is an additional risk.

 The kind of market conditions we are about to face will force questions beyond extreme volatility, no bids and the gapping of price and trade. What Traders must realize is that these extreme price actions themselves trigger increased margins, which again could trigger a liquidity crisis. Under such panic moves, prices can gap ‘without’ a trade and is worth remembering people sell what they can not what they should. This forces other markets to move just to raise cash. If market movements are violent everyone is pulled into the mix.

This is when you have to hope that every one of your fellow account owners (under the broker/clearer you are using) is liquid enough to honor margin requirements. This type of information is rarely going to be available to all and so makes many remain vulnerable.

Just to make you aware, it is possible that your money is vulnerable even if you do not have an open position and is just sitting with your clearer if they were to fail.

A lot of people lost money in the MF Global Scandal.

 

Nov 22 2017

Are We Losing the Training Ground for Trading?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts

Re-Posted Nov 22, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
 

COMMENT: Dear Mr. Armstrong,

Really glad that you again warn us of impending famine moving into 2020 – 2030 and give us ample time to prepare though many still do not believe in your forecast. Your blog have done a great service to humankind.

Also pertaining to your recent article pertaining to skills needed to be a successful traders or fund managers. I tend to agree that going against majority view at important turning points require nerve of steel to pull the trigger. Not many can do it as emotions can overwhelm our decisions. Being a fund manager myself, I find that how we perform and react during bear markets, crisis and panic moments will distinguish me from others (my peers). During rising tide, our performance mask our real ability to handle crisis.

As you say, life is a journey of learning. Socrates provides a valuable tool for my investing journey while your blog helps in allowing me to view the world in different dimensions. I do make mistakes along the way but thank God I become a better investor as day goes by.

Regards,

SS
Malaysia

REPLY: Yes. Funds that are just a buy and hold are not traders. The regulation also creates much of the problem. Because we have the CFTC and the SEC, these two agencies do FAR MORE HARM than good. They each have their own lobbyists to retain and expand their power. I was once offered a fund to manage in the USA with $50 billion+. The problem that confronted me was the blunt fact it was a buy and hold affair. Because it was equity, it would come under the SEC. I would not be allowed to hedge using futures greater than 15% at the time or else I would then violate the CFTC rules and cross into a futures fund. This was all because of a turf war between the two agencies. In other words, if I saw an imminent crash, I could not protect my clients by hedging more than 15%. You had to sell outright everything, which would then also raise red flags. I turned down the offer for I felt my reputation would be destroyed because I would have to suffer a serious loss and could not prevent it. That was while hedge funds were created offshore because you could not trade everything do to regulation to create government jobs rather than provide the best management service for investors.

Because of the regulation, the field is dominated by buy-and-hold managers who have no real trading skill because they were never allowed to trade. Then you have exchanges closing the floor pits and going all electronic. It was the floor trading that forged the souls of traders. You could smell the blood from the screams on the floor. Today, that is reduced to just flashes of light. Actually trading with other people is who you learned to trade. Dealing Rooms were set up with everybody on one floor – not in cubicles. You heard the phones ringing on every desk when the markets were hot. It was that interaction that made great traders. Eliminating that human interaction makes me wonder if we are not losing the core of understanding markets.