Posted originally on Jun 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, you were right again, or your computer was, that the June elections would be a major upset. The far right has gained in France, Germany, and the Netherlands. You said in London that Le Pen should win in the 30% range. It looks like she has 31.5%.
Well done!
HH
REPLY: This should come as no surprise; I am more astonished that politicians are so ignorant of the trend that they appear once in power; they become drunk and assume they can do as they like, and their own people cheer. Turn the economy down as our ECM has done as of May 7th, 2024, and the politics will ALWAYS change. I do not even need Socrates to make that forecast. It is a simple historical fact. Even Herbert Hoover was elected at the top in 1928 and since the ECM peaked in 1929.75, they were naming shanty towns – Hooverville. Of course it was not his policies, but that does not matter. Turn the economy down, and you will ALWAYS get political change or civil unrest.
Macron has called a Snap Election June 30th with the second round July 7th. Mcron was the peacemaker at first, but he has flipped and become the leader of the warmongers. I have warned that was likely because his popularity had crashed and as such they think that they can retain power by going to war for typically in war people do not change horses. However, when we look at the dates, we have a Directional Change for the week of June 3rd, and that has panned out as expected, with serious political gains for the far right. Now look at the target of July 8th, when the second round will take place. Note the sharp right in volatility leading into a Panic Cycle by the end of July.
Even when we look at the timing array from last April, May was the target, and then look at the trend from June into August with a Panic Cycle in September. So far, these European politicians have created inflation, attacked farmers without just cause, threatened war with Russia, and ignored citizens’ concerns, yielding to extreme movements such as the Climate Change nutjobs without ANY scientific evidence whatsoever. They have stood by silently while the American Neocons blew up Nord Stream, singing fuel prices higher and undermining the German economy. But, hey – we have to get Putin! Is it any wonder why the LEFT has lost? Even the Greens in Germany lost big time. Philippe Lamberts of Germany’s Greens/EFA had to admit that the exit poll was “not a victory” for their movement.
After initial projections, the far-right in France with the National Rally (RN) party of Le Pen came out on top with 31.5% of the vote, more than double the share of Macron’s Renaissance Party, which barely made it to second place with 15.2% of the vote, just ahead of the Socialists in third with 14.3% of the vote.
In Portugal, it was their center-left Socialist Party (PS) that appeared to be heading for a marginal victory as they positioned less than 1% ahead of the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD), according to an exit poll from the European Parliament.
Manfred Weber, the chair of the European People’s Party (EPP), one of the war-mongering establishments, said he would try to shut far-right parties out of any governing coalition. This is how arrogance prevails over democracy. He effectively declared business as usual. He was turning more to the left, urging them to be more mainstream and join the EPP’s “pro-European, pro-democratic alliance.”
Even when we turned to the Euro, this coming week was a Directional Change once again confirmed a political upset on the June 9th elections.
Posted originally on Dec 29, 2023 By Martin Armstrong
Europe has laid the groundwork for World War III and the destruction of Europe as a whole, all to save its failed fiscal management of the economy. Using the Ukrainian war that the West instigated by promising democratic elections to the Donbas in BAD FAITH just for being Russian, the European Union Council adopted a 12th sanctions package against Russia. This time, they sealed the fate of the world and Europe by also announcing that the end of this contrived Ukrainian war would not be lifted after the conflict ended. From the very beginning, Europe negotiated in BAD FAITH with the intent of creating war. They promised to allow the Donbas the dignity and respect every human society deserves – the right to determine their own fate by a free election.
The Donbas was to be allowed to vote on their independence all because Nikita S. Khrushchev had merely redrawn borders for administrative purposes, designating that they would be governed from Kiev. The New York Times has put out real propaganda just as they once hailed Stalin as the economic model for the United States back during the Great Depression. When Gareth Jones (1905-1935) in March of 1933 exposed the New York Times reporting as propaganda, the truth finally began to appear. However, it still took the New York Times until 1990 to admit they engaged in fake news pushing communism on America. The NYT wrote that their reporting on the Russian Revolution constituted “some of the worst reporting to appear in this newspaper.” Their journalist Duranty even supported Roosevelt’s New Deal. He helped install drastic progressiveness in taxation. This time, the New York Times outright lied:
“Mr. Putin is repeating his longstanding argument that Ukraine’s borders are an artificial creation of Soviet planners who unjustly cordoned rightful Russian land within the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.”
Is the New York Times just cheering on World War III in hopes of resurrecting a totalitarian state in the aftermath?
Anyone with any sense of history knows that there was NEVER a Ukraine, and the border of Russia under the Tsars was the Dnieper River. The very name “Ukraine” means borderland. They joined with Hitler, who promised them their own country upon his victory. Kiev was the birthplace of the Rus (Russians), whose city was destroyed by the Mongol invasion of 1240AD. They were dispersed, and eventually, Moscow began to rise as a city.
This is why, to this very day, much of Eastern Ukraine is still the homeland of Russians who were promised to be able to hold their own election to separate from Ukraine to rejoin their own ethnic people. It was Khrushchev who redrew the borders, as Putin stated during the Soviet Union period.
Not only did Khrushchev rise through the ranks to head Russia after being in charge of rebuilding Kiew after World War II, but his successor, Brezhnev, was born in the Donbas, which the West wanted to now claim was Ukraine to provoke war.
There are NO Ukrainian coins. The earliest coins of Kiev are that of the Rus or Russians. After the fall of Kiev to the Mongols in 1240, there were no coins. Money became foreign Byzantine coins or silver ingots known as hryvnias. During World War I, there was a brief attempt West of the D River, creating the Ukrainian Revolution of 1917 to 1921. This involved some paper money that was briefly issued. The first coinage of Ukraine as a nation was in 1992. Because the Rus displayed a trident on their coinage, today, the Ukrainians try to claim they were their coins, but this was just not true.
The war for the territory that was NEVER the borderland and thus NEVER occupied by Ukrainians amounts to a territorial grab. It would be as if Mexico seized Texas and then outlawed English as a language. Over 500,000 Ukrainians have died in these proxy war games waged by the West. Merkel has so much blood on her hands that it will NEVER be washed off. She will go to her grave with the stain of so many people who have died for her treachery. Is it truly worth the destruction of Europe all for this nonsense of personal hatred of Russians because they were once communists? Or is this really just a cover-up for the economic collapse of a failed Western economy that borrows every year with no intention of ever paying off any such debt?
The Ukrainians hate Russians so profoundly that they have outlawed their religion, and now Ukraine has even abandoned Eastern Orthodox Christianity. They have now announced that Christmas will be that of Western Christianity – December 25th. Whatever they can do to offend every Russian living in what they claim is Ukraine, they are doing, and the West supports this abuse, even denying the freedom of religion. All of this is because the West needs war as the excuse for the collapse of the monetary system.
The people of Russia never wanted to return to the days of the Soviet Union. Once they tasted freedom, all the propaganda that Putin wanted to resurrect the old Soviet Union was just nonsense. Rome was the greatest empire ever to exist, with decades of peace because everyone benefited from the common market. Europe has chosen hatred rather than prosperity driven by the Neocons, who now also control NATO. The future is being determined right now. Europe has just condemned its own people to war. For what? To deny the people of the Donbas what the West had promised under the Minsk Agreement? Or are they, too, just pawns in this game to retain power?
The new sanctions package they recently announced includes a ban on the import, purchase, or transfer of diamonds from Russia beginning on January 1, 2024, and tightens enforcing a Western price cap on Russian oil at $60 a barrel. Worse still, they have violated international law and set a highly dangerous precedent whereby some 61 people and 86 Russian companies were also sanctioned, according to a list published by the European Commission. They have even sanctioned Putin’s cousin, Anna Tsivileva, and the son of former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, Ilya Medvedev. If there is a dispute between countries, this precedent destroys the rule of law and the world economy. So if a war between the US and China unfolds, then each side can confiscate the assets of private citizen based entirely on their race and ethnic background.
The world economy has been torn to shreds. It will NEVER return before 2032. We are looking at the economic decline our Model warns will unfold between May 7th, 2024, and 2028 as we head into 2032. The leaders of the West are NOT interested in peace. They are brainwashed by the Neocons and NATO, which has been scared to death that peace with Russia makes them irrelevant. So, to retain all the jobs in NATO, their self-interest is always to talk up war. Peace means they are no longer relevant or necessary.
This is NOT my personal opinion. If I could stop it, I certainly would. Our leaders are playing with more than fire; they are playing with the destruction of Western Society as we have known it since the end of World War II. These stupid sanctions have ensured that globalization has come to an end. It was that economic interconnection that created the countless years of peace under the Roman Empire – Pax Romana. The cornerstone of civilization is free trade. When everyone benefits by joining together, the economy expands, and peace flourishes.
What our illustrious leaders are doing is following the Neocon recipe for war. Impose sanctions, wage economic war, and the people will overthrow their governments. The Russians and Chinese are NOT stupid. They know who is waging this economic war, and it is the West. The West has undergone a coup like Rome many times. The Neocons are in complete control of the White House and the EU, not to mention the NATO – The North American Terrorist Organization. These people are trying to conquer the world, not much different than the ambitions that drove Alexander the Great (336–323BC), Hannibal (221–202 BC), Julius Caesar (58-44BC), Attila the Hun (434-453), and Genghis Khan (1206-1227), Napoleon (1799-1815), Adolf Hitler (1934-1945), Josef Stalin (1924-1953).
Cyclically, 2024 is right on schedule with Russia’s 72-year revolutionary cycle. Many have dreamed of the conquest of Russia, for it is one of the wealthiest nations in natural resources, which include gold, platinum, and diamonds. Russia produced platinum coins between 1828 and 1845. No Western Nation was ever able to produce Platinum coinage.
Indeed, just before the Communist Revolution of 1917, Russia had the largest gold reserves of any nation on earth. For nearly 100 years, people have been searching for those gold reserves, which weigh nearly 500 tons (a ton equals 32,150.7 troy ounces of gold). That is 16,075,350 ounces or $32.150 billion at $2,000 an ounce. The Russian Empire’s gold reserve fell into the hands of Alexander V. Kolchak in November of 1918 when he overthrew the government in Siberia supported by the Triple Entente allies. Kolchak was the leader of the White Anti-Bolshevik movement in Siberia during the years of the Russian Civil War. The gold was transported from the capital, Petrograd, during WWI because of the German threat of invasion of the city.
Kolchak’s gold, as it has been called, has been looked for on the Yamal Peninsula. Others suggest carts with Kolchak’s gold might have been found in the Altai Region. Still, others have said that Kolchak’s gold was dropped into Lake Baikal. These headlines have been following the search for the Russian Empire’s gold.
For the first time since World War II, German troops have crossed Poland, moving to Lithuania to defend the border with Belarus/Russia being stationed there until 2027. NATO cannot admit Ukraine as long as it is at war. Therefore, NATO is seeking to create the same situation in the Baltics, and the people of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are now to be sacrificed on the altar of the Neocons along with the more than 500,000 dead troops of Ukraine and the 8 to 10 million Ukrainian refugees who have fled to Europe with no intention of returning home.
Estonia has passed the same law as Ukraine, outlawing the Russian language to discriminate against the Russian population that lives there. Can you imagine if the US outlawed Spanish or Canada outlawed speaking French? This is a deliberate act to invoke a response from Russia as they did to the people in the Donbas. NATO wants war, and they are determined to create World War III. Nobody is interested in peace whatsoever.
Lithuania is now considering imposing a “WAR TAX” on its people, as reported by the local press- BNS. Yet, BNS interviewed 16 economists, who agreed that increasing defense funding is necessary. However, they disagree on whether it needs a separate tax, with only five supporting that. This tax they seemed to foolishly tell the people they are seeking to boost their deterrence capabilities, insisting that it will not be possible to rely on borrowed funds alone.
News agency BNS asked sixteen economists and experts to evaluate the defense tax idea this year. Five would tend to support it; eight believe that a separate tax is not necessary. BNS also noted that the tax can be debated, but would the taxes collected be used transparently and according to the intended purpose? Another emphasized the priority is to have not only resources but also robust and efficient government institutions.
The design of the Euro was unsustainable in the long term. The ONLY way the Euro could have competed with the dollar was to consolidate the debts. However, Chancellor Kohl knew he would have lost 7:1 had he allowed the German people to vote on joining the Euro. So, he admitted he denied any democratic principle, took Germany into the Euro, denying the people a right to vote, so the compromise was that there would be no debt consolidation. I know since the commission came to our 1998 London Conference, and I warned then there would NEVER be a single interest rate in Europe for the member would be no different from the states in the USA – each pays a rate based upon their credit score.
Unfortunately, now, with debt crumbling beneath the surface, they need to escape responsibility for the coming sovereign debt crisis. The way to do that is W A R! They are pushing hard to get Sweden into NATIO.
This is the unspoken agenda. Sadly, these people in power do not care about the people. There are too many of us anyway, according to Bill Gates. They are deliberately seeking to use the Baltics to try to get Russia to take the bait to justify World War III. NATO is also expanding its authority to Asia, knowing that this will be a war between the West, Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, just for starters.
The small nation of Estonia is also desperately trying to sacrifice its people for NATO and the Neocons. Prime Minister Kallas is using Estonia’s strategic position to further this proxy war with Russia. She has outright stated that negotiating a peace deal with Putin is off the table. She is willing to sacrifice her own people for personal safety before she gets a free flight to the USA.
She deliberately fails to mention the Minsk Agreement and how the West negotiated peace in bad faith because this has been the intention from the very start – to create World War III to end democracy and move to a totalitarian state proposed by Klaus Schwab and the end of the United States as all power is then usurped into the United Nations.
Posted originally on the CTH on July 31, 2023 | Sundance
Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni sounds slightly less nationalist and slightly more globalist in this interview as she discusses the current challenges for Italy within the European Union. With a large focus on the African continent, mostly driven by root cause illegal immigration, Prime Minister Meloni outlines how supporting the African economic needs are a pragmatic solution to the outflow of migrants. {Direct Rumble Link} – WATCH:
The confidence in the entire EU government is rapidly collapsing. They desperately need a war with Russia to retain power. Here is a video of the speech on the floor of Parliament by the Croatian MEP Mislav Kolakušić with respect to the EU contract with Pfizer. It was done in secret and nobody was allowed to even vote on this issue – so much for our FAKE NEWS which sois hand-in-hand with our FAKE DEMOCRACY. They then ordered that we could even leave out home or work without a Pfizer vaccine. There will be a special place reserved in hell for both Urlsula von der Leyen and Albert Bourla – who is not even a doctor. He is only a vegetarian. I would let him even pet my dog.
Back in 2021, I warned that Socrates was suggesting that Pfizer would peak out and begin a serious decline. Many people wrote in and said I would be wrong. How can that happen when they bought every government on the planet? Even in August 2021, I warned, despite the criticism, that Pfizer would peak out and it did not look like the stock would continue a rally.
I’m sorry, but Socrates does not listen to MSNBC the most extreme left-wing propaganda machine destined to ruin every life in America if not the planet by supporting vaccines from Pfizer and of course war against everyone a Neocon can think of. Socrates was right. The glory days for Pfizer are over. I think whatever vaccines are left over, Pfizer should refund the money to all the taxpayers of the world and close the doors. It has become a corrupt organization and I for one would NEVER now agree to ANY vaccine produced by this evil empire. Senior management belongs in prison for life. Bankers may hurt people financially, but Pfizer, in my opinion, killed people to make money and physiologically damaged people forever. I still see some people wearing a mask in a car and driving by themselves.
In 2010, Barron’s wrote a piece on me effectively laughing at my forecast that the share market would rally to new highs. What seems to inevitably unfold is this notion that whatever the event might be in motion, the mere thought of a reversal in trend appears impossible. When the press disagrees with Socrates, I know it will be the press who is wrong. And because they end up being wrong, of course, they cannot print a retraction so they will just pretend you do not exist rather than admit – Sorry, we were wrong. The Dow made that new high above 2007 by February 2013. That was 64 months from the October 2007 high.
I have been in the game for many years. With each event, it appears to be like Groundhog Day. They pop their heads out and declare they do not see their shadow, so the entire world will disintegrate and that is always based upon opinion. It is never backed by real analysis. Just the standard human trait of assuming whatever trend is in motion, will remain in motion.
Being an institutional adviser, I have never had that luxury. We have had to deal with some of the biggest portfolios in the world. They want accurate forecasting, and it has to be long-term – not day trading. They are not interested in the typical headlines of doom and gloom that the press love to print with every financial event simply to get readership. That is all they care about. It has been the financial version of the fake news.
When we step back and look at this favorite fundamental that people beat to death to predict the end of the world, the national debt, and the collapse of the dollar. Little did they know that the increase in National Debt during the 2007-2009 Financial Crisis was supposed to bring down the sky and end the existence of the dollar. We can see the sharp rise in debt simply made a double top with the Financial Crisis of 1985.
It was that previous 1985 Financial Crisis that set in motion the Plaza Accord which brought together the central banks creating what was then the G5 – now G20. Of course, like every government intervention, the side effect was the 1987 Crash and their attempt to reverse their directive at the Plaza Accord became the Louve Accord. When the traders saw that failed, the collapse in confidence led to the 1987 Crash.
It has always been a CONFIDENCE game as I pointed out with the 1933 Banking Holiday previously. In this case, the failure of the Louvre Accord which came out and said the dollar had fallen enough, once new lows in the dollar unfolded and the central banks could not stop the decline, led to financial panic by 1987 which manifested in the 1987 Crash.
This chart shows the quarterly change in the National Debt since 1966, Here you can see the 1985 and 2008 Financial Crises were on par. Neither one ended the dollar no less the world economy. So when I warned the share market would rally and make new highs and Barron’s laughed in 2010, I said the same thing after the 1987 Crash and people laughed.
In fact, on the very day of the low, I said this was it and that we would rally back to new highs by 1989. That was perfect and the market responded to the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) which has been published back in 1979. This was more than simply forecasting the 1987 Crash and the very day of the low. It clearly established that the ECM had revealed that there was a secret cycle behind the appearance of chaos even in economics.
Larry Edelson was actually a competitor at the time. But Larry respected that the forecast from the model was far beyond what people would ever expect. If we are ever going to advance as a society, we have to stop the bullshit and understand HOW markets trade and WHY. Larry did that. He understood that the model was something larger than just personal opinion.
Even those claiming to be using the K-Wave cannot make real forecasts. The basis of Kondratieff’s argument came from his empirical study of the economic performance of the USA, England, France, and Germany between 1790 and 1920. Kondratieff took the wholesale price levels, interest rates, and production and consumption of coal, pig iron, and lead for each economy. He then sought to smooth the data using an averaging mathematical approach of nine years to eliminate the trend as well as shorter waves. Kondratieff thus arrived at his long-wave theory suggesting that the economic process was a process of continuous waves of boom and bust.
Kondratieff’s work was compelling and contributed greatly to the Austrian School of Economics that first began to develop the concept of a Business Cycle. The general central principle of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory is concerned with a period of sustained low-interest rates and excessive credit creation resulting in a volatile and unstable imbalance between saving and investment. Within this context, the theory supposes that the Business Cycle unfolds whereby low rates of interest tend to stimulate borrowing from the banking sector and thus then result in the expansion of the money supply that causes an unsustainable credit source boom which leads to a diminished opportunity for investment by competition.
Here is a chart of the business cycle that was created by a farmer named Samuel Benner. Benner based his work on Sunspots, which actually incorporated solar maximum and minimum that today’s Climate Change zealots refuse to consider. Nevertheless, someone manipulated Brenner’s work and created a chart to try to influence society handing it in with a wild story to the Wall Street Journal published this cycle on February 2nd, 1932, when the market bottomed in July 1932. Still, nobody knew who had investigated this phenomenon in 1932.
When I was doing my own research reading all the newspapers to understand how events unfolded, I came across this chart. I found it interesting that during the Great Depression people were reaching out and some began to embrace cyclical ideas. The problem with both Kondratiff and Brenner was that the period they used to develop their cycles was the 19th century because the real Industrial Revolution was unfolding and in the 1850s, 70% of the civil workforce were all in agriculture. Consequently, if you constructed a model based entirely upon one sector, it would work only as long as that sector was the top dog.
Being a historian buff, it quickly hit me that NOTHING remains constant and that the economy will ALWAYS evolve, mature, and then crash and burn. Where agriculture was 70% of the workforce in 18590, it fell to 40% by 1900, and then down to 3% by 1980.
Just look at energy. The earliest lamps, dating to the Upper Paleolithic, were stones with depressions in which animal fats were burned as a source of light. In cultures closer to the sea, they began to use shells as lamps which they would burn at first animal fat. Clay lamps began to appear during the Bronze Age around the 16th century BC and the invention quickly spread throughout the Roman Empire. Initially, they took the form of a saucer with a floating wick.
We even find Roman oil lamps as luxury items crafted out of bronze. There are collectors of terracotta oil lamps for there is a vast variety of motifs. There is everything from dolphins, and various entities, to erotic oil lamps, which may have been used in brothels. The point is, if you constructed a model on oil, you would have surely accomplished similar results to Kondratief and Brenner.
Then of course, just as the energy moved from animal fats to vegetable oils, by the 19th century it returned to whale oil which was extracted from the blubber. Emerging industrial societies used whale oil in oil lamps and to make soap. However, during the 20th century, whale oil was even made into margarine.
Then the discovery of petroleum and the use of whale oils declined considerably from their peak in the 19th century into the 20th century. Ironically, it was fossil fuels that probably saved whales from extinction. Hence, now we are entering a period where they deliberately want to end fossil fuels and move to solar and wind power. Obviously, just a cursory review of energy reveals the problem of basing a model on the current energy source or major economic industry. Things change with time.
For the life of me, I have stated the obvious that the Biden Administration has been pushing China and Russia together not to mention North Korea, Iran, and perhaps even Turkey. I cannot believe that I am so brilliant that none of these people in the White House understood the historical event that just took place. That leaves me with the only possible conclusion that they KNEW what they were doing, and that this was DELIBERATE with the intention of creating World War III.
They made it clear that Russia is willing to negotiate but the USA wants war – not peace. All they need to do is honor the Minsk Agreement which they refuse to do. In addition, they expressed concern about the West effectively creating NATO in Asia and the AUKUS (Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States) and their plans to build nuclear submarines that would violate the non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.
Russian and China came to an agreement concerning a comprehensive partnership in the energy sector. They also expressed concern for the American Neocons who have been pushing military-biological activities and demand full disclosure. They are furthermore pushing for the US to accelerate the elimination of its stockpile of chemical weapons, which the Neocons seem to be dragging their feet intentionally under the Biden Administration.
They also stressed that the United States is pushing Ukraine into this proxy war that they viewed as leading “to an uncontrollable phase.” Moreover, they have also pointed out that the United States and the UK are bypassing the UN Security Council and acting in a rogue manner. The Biden Administration has already divided the world economy. Now, China and Russia are moving to a joint security policy on food and energy which will include defense.
NATO is by no means a defensive organization. They violated the agreements of 1991 and moved Eastward to the border of Russia. In return, China and Russia have called on NATO to strictly observe the defensive nature of their organization and respect the foreign sovereignty of nations, which they have not. Aside from the fact that they invited Russia to join in 1991 which led to the Gorbachev coup, the need for Russia to be the evil empire has been vital. Without an enemy, NATO serves no purpose.
They have also expressed concern that the United States has clearly intensified its activities in the field of missile weapons and has called out the US insisting that it is undermining international security. The Biden threats have been rejected and imposing sanctions on China will only further destroy the world economy.
Without question, this alliance between Russia and China has been created by the American Neocons who assumed that they could intimidate China into remaining distant from Russia so they could wage war and destroy Russia once and for all. This has undone everything that President Nixon did to separate the two MNixon went to China on February 21, 1972, and this is 51.6 years from that target – just UNBELIEVABLE. This also confirms that we are staring into the eyes of history in the making.
Consequently, the China-Russian alliance is historically a true game changer. The Neocons have upset the entire world and NEVER do they ever consider what if their judgment was wrong. The world we have known it is changing and the Neocons have succeeded in undermining not just our future in the United States, but that of the entire world.
Just as World War I and World War II marked the collapse of the British imperial empire, the stupidity of the Biden Administration has sealed the fate of the world and the United States. The world is now firmly divided and the future will never be the same. Welcome to the 2023 Financial Crisis.
The banking crisis continues and it is impacting funds that have been buying bonds. Allianz, a subsidiary of Pimco, is writing off countless millions with Credit Suisse bonds. The banking crisis has been the result of artificially low-interest rates for far too long and banks were used to free money and buy long-term bonds all because they were making their money on the spread. Now that rates are rising, their risk management was effectively nonexistent, and thus the losses and widespread.
The Allianz subsidiary Pimco is one of the largest asset managers in the world. They have to now write off a loss in Credit Suisse bonds and it’s ain’t over yet as we head into April 10th.
Posted originally on the CTH on March 19, 2023 | Sundance
This is rather remarkable and tells us something about the current status of the “western” financial system. The last sentence in today’s announcement from the FED is particularly laughable. Check this out [Source]:
That last sentence is nonsense. When was the last time the ‘central banks’ worried about the supply of credit to households and businesses? Total and complete nonsense. What they are worried about is the need to have readily available dollars, faster, to backstop banks that are supposed to beholding deposits.
Nothing quite inspires ‘global banking confidence’ like the need to swap dollars rapidly, from country to country on a daily basis, because the amount of currency in bank, within any western nation, at any given time, might disappear.
Yesterday’s monologue from Neil Oliver, and the recent personal banking story that structures his comments, is standing as eerily prescient right now. SEE BELOW:
“This just in. Everything is fine… the liquidity of the Western banking system has never been stronger”… “Look over there folks, Trump indictment, nothing to see here folks… move along now”…
Posted originally on the CTH on March 16, 2023 | Sundance
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates again today, while simultaneously promising to support further bank bailouts that might come as an outcome of raising the rates again. In the bigger picture there are two dynamics supported by the ECB playing out.
The first issue is the ideological effort to change the economic models based on climate change. The Build Back Better (Green New Deal) policy, a traditional energy production control effort, is being supported by the ECB effort to shrink the EU economy to meet the rate of diminished energy production. Make the economy smaller to meet the lower energy production rate.
Lowered energy production (oil, coal and natural gas) has raised energy prices; this is the fuel behind supply side inflation. The Western policy created energy inflation is hitting every aspect of the EU, US and western global economy. The prices of all downstream goods and services have risen dramatically as a result. The European banks are not going to stop trying to make the economy smaller just because banks are failing. That brings us to the second issue.
Like the first issue with BBB controls, the World Economic Forum action plan for government also includes the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The collapsing of the traditional banking system supports the agenda to create CBDCs. Raising interest rates puts more pressure on already weak banks. This is a feature not a flaw of the intent.
Shifting the economy from traditional oil, coal and natural gas is one aspect (climate change). Shifting the banking system from traditional currency to central bank digital currencies is the second aspect (total govt financial control). The banking instability is the crisis that facilitates the CBDC solution. Ergo, continue raising rates and continue making the crisis more useful.
In the bigger picture, this is an ideological quest to fundamentally change the western economic model. Support for that change is what we are witnessing as the EU central banks continue raising rates. Ultimately, banks being controlled by government is the necessary step to achieve the second phase of the larger plan.
(Via Wall Street Journal) – FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank raised interest rates by a half-percentage point while promising emergency support for eurozone banks if needed, showing the policy makers’ balancing act as they seek to combat high inflation without aggravating strains in the financial system.
The ECB said in a statement that it would increase its key rate to 3%, following consecutive half-point rate increases in February and December. The 50 basis-point rise surprised analysts who had expected a smaller uptick given the tense market situation after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
At a news conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled the bank would be cautious about further rate increases, while stressing it stood ready to provide fresh liquidity to banks. Policy makers will make future rate decisions based on coming economic data, she said, a change from previously announcing plans for rate increases months in advance.
“It’s not business as usual,” Ms. Lagarde said. “It is not possible at this point in time…to determine what the path will be going forward.” (read more)
Meanwhile in the U.S., the Fed/Treasury plan is to do essentially the same thing by supporting the big banks with over $2 trillion in available backstop funding. The Fed is celebrating the big banks supporting the smaller banks. Ultimately, this is the banking system downsizing and getting more control with less players.
Washington, DC — The following statement was released by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen, Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome H. Powell, FDIC Chairman Martin J. Gruenberg, and Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael J. Hsu:
Today, 11 banks announced $30 billion in deposits into First Republic Bank. This show of support by a group of large banks is most welcome, and demonstrates the resilience of the banking system. (LINK)
The implementation of a U.S. digital currency will become easier if there are fewer players in the banking system. WATCH:
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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