Category Iran

Mar 27 2023

Peace in the Middle East – China Brokers Saudi Arabia-Iran Peace Treaty


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Mar 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

China accomplished a once unthinkable feat — a peace treaty between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The two countries have been sworn enemies since the beginning of time, representing conflicting Shiite and Sunni Muslim groups that have been battling since their religion was founded. The two nations have been fighting a proxy war in Yemen that has led to over 150,000 deaths, which is another major story not covered by the mainstream media. This story has only received negative attention in the Western media because it is a major win for China who is now seen as the adult in the room on the international stage.

The press release issued by Saudi Arabia is astonishing, given the deep hatred it had for Iran. Saudi Arabia is now keen on “developing good neighborly relations…in light of their brotherly ties.”

“The three countries announce that an agreement has been reached between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran, that includes an agreement to resume diplomatic relations between them and re-open their embassies and missions within a period not exceeding two months, and the agreement includes their affirmation of the respect for the sovereignty of states and the non-interference in internal affairs of states. They also agreed that the ministers of foreign affairs of both countries shall meet to implement this, arrange for the return of their ambassadors, and discuss means of enhancing bilateral relations. They also agreed to implement the Security Cooperation Agreement.”

Rumors are swirling about what this peace treaty could entail. Saudi Arabia and Iran could join BRICs, the alliance between Brazil, Russia, India, and China. If the two nations join, all major energy exporters will be within this alliance. Half of the world’s population would be under this alliance as well. There would be absolutely no need for Western interference in this situation.

The dollar’s dominance would be at risk. The Saudis are already discussing settling oil transactions in the yuan instead of the dollar. This will seriously damage the dollar’s ability to remain the standard reserve currency. China’s rise to becoming the financial capital of the world is happening right before our eyes.

Mar 11 2023

Huge – Iran and Saudi Arabia Agree to Resume Diplomatic and Trade Relations During Talks Negotiated by China


Posted originally on the CTH on March 10, 2023 | Sundance


This is huge in the geopolitical world.  China operated as a broker in the structurally unstable relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

  • From the Iranian perspective – With a visibly weak U.S. president, and a strengthening Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping forming a close bond with Saudi Arabia, it makes sense for Iran to move toward diplomatic relations.
  • From the Saudi Arabia perspective – With a visibly weak U.S. president, the prior assurances from Washington DC diminish, trust is tenuous, and a stronger hedge-based relationship with Chairman Xi is formed.
  • From the Chinese perspective – With a visibly weak U.S. president, and a western alliance intended to destroy itself to fulfill the desires of the WEF climate change and cultural agenda, the opportunity to expand influence is teed up.

It will be intensely interesting to see how Israel positions itself w/ this new dynamic.

BEIRUT — Saudi Arabia and Iran announced an agreement in China on Friday to resume relations more than seven years after severing ties, a major breakthrough in a bitter rivalry that has long divided the Middle East.

The agreement was a result of talks in Beijing that began Monday as part of an initiative by Chinese President Xi Jinping aimed at “developing good neighborly relations” between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the three countries said in a joint statement. The agreement, which was signed by top Iranian security official Ali Shamkhani and Saudi national security adviser Musaed bin Mohammed al-Aiban, said embassies would be reopened within two months.

Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran in 2016 after the Saudi Embassy in Tehran was attacked and burned by Iranian protesters, angered by the kingdom’s execution of prominent Shiite cleric Sheikh Nimr Baqr al-Nimr. The cleric had emerged as a leading figure in protests in Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province, a Shiite-majority region in the Sunni-majority nation.

[…] On Friday, John Kirby, a spokesman for the National Security Council, said the United States welcomed the agreement but noted that Washington was not “directly involved.”

Kirby said it was too early to tell whether the deal would hold. “It really does remain to be seen whether the Iranians are going to honor their side,” he said. “This is not a regime that typically does honor its word. So we hope that they do. We’d like to see this war in Yemen end.”

Yemen has enjoyed a rare reprieve from fighting since April, when a truce sponsored by the United Nations went into effect. (more)

With the western alliance nations destroying their economies while simultaneously meddling around in European cultural and political affairs, the dynamic of the BRICS economic alliance also opens up within a Saudi-Iran peace process.  Economics is the oil that lubricates against geopolitical friction.

China is gaining influence, and Russia is gaining breathing room from WEF sanctions.

This will be very interesting to keep watching.

Jan 29 2023

Israel Attacks Iran


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 29, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

We are getting reports that Israel has launched drone attacks on Iran in an attempt to prevent it from achieving nuclear weapons. We are also getting disturbing reports from Asia. This General has come out and said there will be war with China by 2025 which has sparked an avalanche of emails asking if they are using our model, all I can say is everyone looks at it. Yes, we see international war at its worst between 2025 into 2027. But things are to begin here in 2023.

I laid this out at our 2011 WEC in Philadelphia. These are our COMPUTER forecasts – not my personal opinion. I am not in the business of trying to get people to buy something and scaring them into something to separate them from their money. I certainly do not run advertisements claiming this is the guy that predicted WWII do what does he say now!

Personally, I wish this was not happening. I have tried my best to argue against this, but the people we have cheering for war are just insane. Every war is longer and far worse than people think going in. Every war results in twice as many civilians being killed than soldiers.

When I was 13 and went to Europe with my family, etched into my memory was when I was staring at the bullet holes in a wall in Berlin. An old guy came up to me and started yelling – “You did that!” I saw the hatred in his eyes – the scare of war.

There are ONLY three ways to prevent World War III.

  • (1) the West stops this BS, honors the Minsk Agreement, lets the Donbas vote on their own status, or
  • (2) The Ukrainian overthrew Zelensky who was elected promising peace with Russia.
  • (3) Russia nukes Kyiv and pounds its chest asking – Is this where you want to go?

This insanity thinking that Russia can be easily defeated, we occupy Russia with troops, and peace will return is a fool’s dream. There are far more nationalists waiting to grab power and they will just as soon push the button and wipe out all of Europe no different than the dreams of American Neocons. Do you really want Russia in chaos and civil way with more than 6,000 nuclear weapons on the loose? Nobody seems to have thought about what really happens here.

None of this is my PERSONAL desire or forecast. My job is only to lay out what the computer projects.

Oct 24 2022

Iranians Fighting with Russians – This is Not a Test


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Oct 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Reports first circulated that Iranian soldiers were training Russians to operate drones after numerous reports of technical failures. Both Tehran and Moscow denied the allegations, but the writing was on the wall. Now, there are reports of at least ten Iranians dying from Ukrainian air strikes.

Some ask whether it would be safer for Russian soldiers to train in Iran, but they’re missing the point. The “training” is no different than fighting alongside Russian troops. Over 20 Iranian instructors have been spotted in Crimea and Kherson Oblast.

“The Russians took Iranian instructors to the territory of the temporarily occupied Kherson Region and Crimea to launch Shahed-136 kamikaze drones,” the Ukrainian Nation Resistance Center claimed. “They teach the Russians how to use kamikaze drones, and directly monitor the launch of drones on Ukrainian civilian targets, including strikes on Mykolaiv and Odesa.”

This open door is an invitation for foreign troops to fight alongside Ukraine or Russia under the premise of training. It matters not who is holding the controls as the training is taking place in an active warzone. Ukraine is already asking foreign nations to begin “testing” their military defenses on their soil, pointed at the Russians. “Today hundreds of Iranian drones are undergoing ‘test runs’ on our land, killing civilians,” the Defense Ministry wrote on Twitter. “These drones were not intended for use against Ukraine. To have a strategic advantage over its enemy, Israel should conduct a ‘test run’ of its air defenses Ukraine is the best testing ground.”

Iran could turn around and declare this an act of war or use this as an excuse to fuel the flames. If someone from the West or an Asian ally were training Ukrainian forces in a warzone, their individual government would certainly escalate the situation if Russians killed their soldiers. Iranians are already on the ground fighting alongside Russians, paving the way for other nations to join the fighting on the frontlines.

Oct 21 2022

Iranian Drones


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Oct 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The western alliance is not the only one providing military training. Iran has sent military members to Crimea to train Russian troops. Specifically, they are training them to use Iranian drones. There were reports of Russian troops visiting Iran in August to learn how to operate unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). Since then, there have been numerous reports of UAVs failing, but the successfully deployed UAVs are capable of causing serious damage.

Shaheds, also known as kamikaze or suicide drones, explode on impact and are capable of also carrying missiles. This drone is less expensive to develop, but it can travel up to 1,000 miles and leave a range of destruction in its path. Mohajer-6 UAVs can be used for spying purposes and can, of course, also hold a missile. Ukraine claims that they have shot down at least 200 drones and have the capability to jam radars.

Both Russia and Iran have denied trading weapons, but what do they have to lose now that all the cards are on the table? Russia has violated the UN Security Council Resolution 2231 by transferring arms from Iran. The West has already sanctioned Russia in every way possible. Numerous nations are placing sanctions on Iran now, but again, they are not too concerned. Tehran and Moscow, two nuclear powers, are strengthening their relationship and seem prepared to face any Western consequences while resuming trade.

Aug 13 2022

Salman Rushdie on Ventilator After Horrific Attack in New York


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 13, 2022 | Sundance 

For many people Salman Rushdie is perhaps the most well-known free speech defender in the current generation. He certainly is one of the bravest people who originally spoke out against Islamic extremism with his 1988 book Satanic Verses.

Iranian leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini issued a fatwa calling for Rushdie’s death over what he claimed were blasphemous references to Islam. A $3 million bounty was placed on his head for anyone who kills him. The fatwa was never rescinded, and Rushdie spent well over a decade hiding under protective custody.

In recent years Rushdie has been a visible advocate for free speech and has given multiple speeches on issues around the need for freedom of expression. During a speech yesterday he was attacked and stabbed multiple times.

[New York] – Author Salman Rushdie is likely to lose one of his eyes and is currently on a ventilator after he was attacked on stage at a literary event in upstate New York on Friday, a report said.

“The news is not good,” the 75-year-old writer’s agent, Andrew Wylie, told The New York Times. “Salman will likely lose one eye; the nerves in his arm were severed; and his liver was stabbed and damaged,” said Wylie.

Rushdie, who is still unable to speak, was attacked by a lone man while speaking at an event at the Chautauqua Institution in Chautauqua, NY, about 55 miles south of Buffalo.

He was scheduled to speak about the United States as a place for exiled authors “as a home for freedom of expression,” according to the institute. After the stabbing, he was transported by helicopter to a hospital in Erie, Pennsylvania, where he underwent surgery.

[…] Rushdie’s alleged attacker, 24-year-old Hadi Matar, of Fairview, New Jersey, was arrested at the scene by a state trooper who was assigned to the lecture. (read more)

Mar 29 2022

Did the Globalists Just Flinch on Russian Sanctions in Order to Keep Control of Global Climate Change Goals?


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 28, 2022 

Something odd is happening in the background of the G7 energy ministers’ announcement earlier today.

Remember that moment {HERE} when Canada’s Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland seemed really uncomfortable and weird at the presser – just 36 hours before the Trudeau administration announced they were going to drop the Emergency Act banking sanctions against the truckers? {Go Deep}

Here is an encapsulation of what’s weird, and you don’t have to be an expert in geopolitics and international trade to see it:

The G7 countries (including the U.S.) announced today they were demanding that Russia accept payment for oil and gas in euros and dollars.  This is happening at the same time NATO is demanding (via sanctions) that Russia be blocked from accepting payments in euros and dollars.

Something is weird.  Keep in mind, the same nations in the G7 are the same nations in NATO with the exception of Japan (G7 only).

The only way this conflict could make any sense, is if the G7 energy ministers realize that forcing Russia to trade in non-euros and non-dollars will structurally undermine the G7 unilateral hold of global finance and energy policy.   In essence, the G7 see the non-sanction countries, particularly India and China, lining up to replace the petro-dollar, and that not only weakens their position financially, but it also weakens their climate change position.

Saudi Arabia is not returning phone calls from the Biden administration, and the extended OPEC-plus are not following the sanctions regime of the western NATO alliance.  Which makes sense, because Opec+ includes Russia, and the geopolitical dynamic appears to have fractured around the energy sector, with the western alliance chasing renewable energy and the non-sanction countries staying on course with oil and gas.

The conflicting position toward Russia, insofar as the G7 demands they keep selling using euros/dollars while NATO demands Russia stop receiving euros/dollars, remains brutally stark.  It is a conflicting interest, within the same policies, within the same geopolitical group.

Behind the G7 and NATO, we know the multinational corporations assembled in the World Economic Forum are ultimately the driver of political policy. The central bankers, finance ministers and politicians all operate under the guidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank (WB) and World Trade Organization (WTO).

Together the WEF, IMF, WB, WTO, EU central banks and U.S. federal reserve, collectively represent what we call the globalists.  And the globalists are pushing the climate change agenda hard {WEF LINK}.

The conflicting position, with G7 energy ministers demanding Russia accept payments in Euros/Dollars, can only be reconciled if the globalist crew is worried about the fracturing we have previously discussed. {Go Deep}

However, if the globalist team only just now realized their sanctions have created a cleaving of the world energy trade system using dollars to pay for oil/gas purchases, and by extension this weakens their objective to force everyone to accept climate change objectives, they would be fools.

Something weird is going on here.  I’m not certain what it is, but I am confident something really odd is again happening in the background.

It is always important to remember the ultimate goal of the ‘climate change’ promotors is not an energy system that changes the global climate. The goal of the ‘climate change’ group is to create a carbon trading system; a new financial mechanism (a global tax program) to control human activity on a world-wide basis.  This system also needs a digital identity in order to work.

As a consequence, when we look at the fracturing of the global energy marketplace, it is worth viewing the divided group through the prism of the globalist carbon trading scheme.

My hunch is the demand for Russia to accept payment in euros and dollars is directly connected to the G7 worrying about losing climate change leverage with the non-sanction countries around the issue of energy.   For the globalists, it’s not just the loss of the petro-dollar at stake, it’s losing the accompanying leverage they have to enforce their climate change mission.

That’s the only thing that makes this internal conflict make sense.

Mar 24 2022

Should we Cheer for Putin to Lose?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

While the Neocon strategy of DEMONIZING an adversary as they have done to Putin, the very same strategy was used to get people to absolutely hate Donald Trump. The more someone hates Trump still, the more susceptible they are to simple techniques of mind manipulation. This has led many to cheer for the Ukrainians to defeat Russians and we have the White House calling Putin a War Criminal when you could say the same thing about the US leaders that started the endless saga of wars on false pretenses or took out civils with drones when they wrongly thought they were terrorists.

The White House appears to be under the influence of the Neocons who just always advocate war. Make no mistake about it, these Neocons are not confined to just the Democrats or Republicans. They share a love for war and the hatred of everyone they perceive to be an enemy. It’s tempting to think that Putin will suffer a defeat and democracy could revive in Russia, but a more likely scenario is total world chaos. Russia is also comprised of Muslims who number about 14 million or roughly 10% of the total population. Then there are different cultures and you will see internal chaos and separatist movements armed with nukes.

Putin is not a fool and he is actually honoring his word. He is not trying to conquer Ukraine. His column of tanks had stopped as a show of force and intimidation. He has not ordered just total annihilation. The US strategy is we go in and flatten everything targeting water and power grid. Put took the power station but did not turn off the power. The West portrays this as Putin is stalled and the Ukrainians could defeat the Russians. But this seems to be propaganda all designed to wear down the moral of the Russian troops and sway public opinion for Ukraine.

While the press also portrays that Putin’s nation has now been subjected to an isolation greater than any nation has ever experienced by any major power in history, it was US sanctions to cut off the fuel to Japan that caused them to attack Pearl Harbor. There were later even Congressional investigations into FDR and did he deliberately try to create a situation to get the USA into World War II. Congress simply said the allegations were inconclusive.

Since late February, Russia has been hit with punishing economic, trade and financial sanctions. Putin struck back and said all energy sales to unfriendly nations will now be in Rubles. Saudi Arabia also agreed with China to sell oil in Yuan. These are historically critical events that have torn the world economy asunder. There will NEVER BE A RETURN TO NORMAL.

So while the Western Press cheers and reports that Russia is careering toward a debt default, they forget that the default will be on the West. A very rapid technological decoupling is also underway dividing the world economy and that will threaten free trade and the end of economic growth. Indeed, US GDP Growth rate peaked in real terms.

The mass withdrawal of American firms from Russia will have a profoundly negative impact moving forward and the world economy is shrinking rapidly. Russia isn’t some weak power like Iraq. Russia is a major power whose population was, until recently, deeply connected to its larger global environment. The White House thinks that Russians will blame Putin rather than Biden. Eastern European states like Serbia and in the Middle East are looking at the United States as the problem being arrogant and interfering in everyone else’s affairs. It is without question that the United States has declare war on Russia. This is how World War II began with countries attacking one another in the financial markets.

So while the Neocons lick their lips at the thought of overturning Putin and controlling Russia before they turn on China, they are clearly not looking long-term. They took out Saddam Hussein who kept the religious zealots in their place. Once he was removed, the Middle East saw the rise of ISIS. The US has been covertly funding the Ukrainian Nazis to keep up their fight against Donbass.

Let us may no mistake here. The Neocons pushed and funded through the CIS the Taliban for then they were the anti-Soviet resistance. The CIA Special Activities Division sent paramilitary officers to equip the Mujihadeen forces against the Soviet Army. The US therefore funded Taliban mainly to assist in ending the Soviet’s occupation in Afghanistan. However, the Neocons can never think past the end of their nose. They have no long-term strategies, only win what is immediately in front of them. The taliban benefited from expanded foreign military support from the United States. They then used that training against US troops who were in search of terrorists from 911.

The foolish view among the Neocons is they think bringing Democracy to the Middle East or now to Russia and China will somehow make them friends or stable is an absolute joke. The idea of creating a “Moscow Spring” by punishing the Russian people until they do what the CIS and Neocons demand does not make the costs of conflict lead worth it. Marx brought his ideas and it cost over 200 million lives to install communism. America is hated for its interference by the Neocons in many circles.

Both China and Russia have American arrogance as a common enemy and the Russian or Chinese people will not send them flowers and Xmas cards thanking them for destroy everything they have built since 1989. However, RELIABLE sources in the Middle East, the UAE, Egypt and even Israel are angry over Biden’s sanctions. Yet the Neocons claim that total isolation forced regime change in South Africa. However, they also had no military power to fight back. That is like claiming a fight is fair with one kid has a rubber band and the other a baseball bat.

Somebody in Washington needs to start thinking strategically and realistically about this endeavor to isolate Russia for all that is unfolding at a rapid rate is the disintegration of the world economy. In 1989, then President George H.W. Bush understood there were serious risks with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism. Russia is big and powerful enough that its role in the world economy is vital to the overall health of the international order . The US NEEDS Russia as an economic friend not and adversary for nobody will win with that result.

The Western propaganda is that Russia and China represent authoritarian rule. However, Western governments are no better. Sure, we have elections but then the candidate arrives in Washington and they are told they will vote according to the Party Agenda rendering the image of free elections only just that. In Europe, the people do not vote for the Commission which makes the laws nor for the head of state. We do not live in a Democracy for the people never are allowed to vote on an issue like war or peace.

The likelihood of Putin being overthrown and Democracy is sudden born has less than a zero change of ever being correct.

Mar 21 2022

The Largest Humanitarian Crisis That No One Discusses


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Mar 21, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yemen has been at war for the past seven years. A once great land of ancient trade, Yemen has become one of the poorest nations in the Arab world. Their GDP for 2021 was expected to reach only 26.9 billion USD. The World Bank estimated that over half of Yemen’s population lived in poverty prior to the pandemic, and that figure has now reached 71% to 78%.

The United Nations recently declared that 19 million people will go hungry in the coming months. Yemen is completely reliant on exports for basic necessities and 90% of its food supply is imported. One-third of imported wheat comes from Ukraine and Russia. The World Food Programme (WFP) said five million people are at “immediate risk” of slipping into famine-like conditions, and that their program needs $887.9 million to feed 13 million people over the next six months. Over 20.5 million people are without safe water as well.

Around 75% of the $14 billion donated to the nation came from the United States, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, and the European Commission. The World Bank expects inflation to reach 45% in Yemen this year but the rial is already worthless and the nation has yet to adopt a safe reserve currency.

I have yet to see a Yemeni flag or virtue signaling for the people living in this particular war-torn country as it is not part of the agenda. The media rarely reports on Yemen and most journalists likely would not be able to recognize Yemen’s flag. People are not driving around with “We Stand With Yemen” bumper stickers, and schools are not requiring children to make sense of this war. The public does not discuss or shed tears for the people of Yemen who live in unfathomable conditions because they are not a piece of the larger agenda and no one can profit off of their suffering at this time.

Mar 9 2022

Leaders of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates Refuse To Take Biden Phone Calls, Both Spoke to Vladimir Putin


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 8, 2022 | Sundance

Remember when Joe Biden tried to claim, because of his election, the U.S. was respected again?  Yeah, well, not so much.

Apparently, the Biden administration planned to go hat in hand to the Middle East for help with oil production.  However, Saudi Arabia and the UAE refused to even take Joe Biden’s calls.

(Wall Street Journal) […] Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the U.A.E.’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al Nahyan both declined U.S. requests to speak to Mr. Biden in recent weeks, the officials said, as Saudi and Emirati officials have become more vocal in recent weeks in their criticism of American policy in the Gulf.

“There was some expectation of a phone call, but it didn’t happen,” said a U.S. official of the planned discussion between the Saudi Prince Mohammed and Mr. Biden. “It was part of turning on the spigot [of Saudi oil].”

[…] One U.S. official said the Biden administration has worked diligently to strengthen Saudi and Emirati missile defenses, and that America would be doing more in the coming months to help the two Gulf nations protect themselves. It may not be all the two countries want, the official said, but the U.S. is trying to address their security concerns.

But the Saudis and Emiratis have declined to pump more oil, saying they are sticking to a production plan approved between their group, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and a group of other producers led by Russia. The energy alliance with Russia, one of the world’s top oil producers, has enhanced OPEC’s power while also bringing the Saudis and Emiratis closer to Moscow.

Both Prince Mohammed and Sheikh Mohammed took phone calls from Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, after declining to speak with Mr. Biden. (read more)

MBS and Sheikh Mohammed are not blind.  They know the Obama-Biden teams support the Muslim Brotherhood who are the political wing of the Islamic extremist figures creating unrest in the Middle East.