Am I Ever Wrong?


Posted originally on Oct 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Are you Wrong

QUESTION: Are you ever wrong?

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ANSWER: Personally, we are all wrong on various things in life. To be a trader, you only learn from your mistakes – not your victories. I try to separate what is my OPINION from the forecasts by the computer. We have clients around the world. We have probably been the largest adviser ever. But that is not because of my opinion – that is Socrates. I have often stated I try my best to defeat my own computer – I am the one who ends up wrong.

MA War Cycle 2011 WEC

There is a new film coming out the sequel to the Forecaster. I was asked in this film, how does it “feel” to live through your own forecasts. My job is to relay what the computer is forecasting. This is not my opinion. I stood up at our 2011 World Economic Conference and warned that the War Cycle would turn up in 2014. On December 3rd, 2013, I posted that the computer had targeted Ukraine where war would begin.

CUGUSA Y Chart Array 1 1 23

A number of people do not like the forecast that China would replace the United States on the economic battlefield. Sorry, but my job is to present the UNBIASED projections of the computer – not my personal opinion or desire. I have grandkids. I hate to see the future we are leaving behind for our children. This is the data from the Federal Reserve. The differential peak in GDP (US-China GDP) occurred in 2006 with a premium of $1.3 trillion.  Even since then, China has been growing in leaps and bounds, and it may even surpass the US in the 2025/2026 period and reach total displacement by 2032.

China on the Rise

The Ukraine war has triggered a completely new dynamic in the relationship between these great powers with respect to this rivalry. What is being overlooked here is that China, and not Russia, is capable of replacing the United States as the leading world economic and military power, as I warned several years ago, back in 2011 and 2018. Our model projected that China would eventually replace the United States as the leading economic power – NOT me personally.

2020 US Combined Polls Politics

These are NOT forecasts that I personally desire, nor do they originate in my mind. Even look at the data on Republicans vs. Democrats. This is the perspective of the combined total seats of each party. The Democrats are the modern-day Federalists. They see themselves imposing their views upon the entire nation. The Federalists collapsed by 1824. The American people reject this political philosophy, and this is the trend that will lead to separation as it ALWAYS does whenever any government attempts to impose a dictatorial one-size-fits-all policy.

So please understand. I am no more infallible than other humans. My job is to relay the computer forecasts. I try hard to separate my opinion from that of Socrates. I do not want to see war. I know I cannot alter the cycle. The best I can do by screaming loudly is to reduce the amplitude perhaps. I am 75 years old. I get to leave this chaos and watch from above. I am trying to leave behind what I had bumped into in the middle of my life. What I do, I do not do for money. I have enough to finish my life. At the WEC this year, I will make an important announcement that I hope will help the generations that follow.

Living Your Greatness Podcast – Final Days of the Empire


Posted Jul 25, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

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It’s Just Time – Political Revolution


Posted originally on Jul 4, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

Its Just Time

Back in 2008, I named a report after what Margaret Thatcher had told me about politics. I began that report by writing:

Time is but a dimension that we divide up to mark its passing. Western thought, unfortunately, is linear, not dynamic. This has been the curse of Western understand­ing and knowledge. Time is but a cycle – a circle. Asians are raised with the idea of cycles leading to a more dynamic thinking process. Some see and feel cycles, and some see it as necessary and instinctively understand them. Lady Margaret Thatcher once commented to me that the Conservatives would lose the elections in Great Britain when John Major was running, she said – “It’s just time.

Lady Thatcher came and spoke at our conference on cycles. She said.

Thatcher 1997

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Today’s British election is underway, and we will see a sweep where Labour will replace Conservatives, who have acknowledged that Labour appears headed for victory and urged voters not to hand the party a “supermajority.” Britain’s Prime Minister Rishi Sunak insisted “the outcome of this election is not a foregone conclusion.” However, in a message to voters on Wednesday, Sunak said that “if the polls are to be believed, the country could wake up tomorrow to a Labour supermajority ready to wield their unchecked power.” He urged voters to back the Conservatives to limit Labour’s power. The Conservatives have been more concerned about appeasing Anthony Blinken and the American quest to conquer Russia. To hell with the economy or the people. Britain was fully on board with the Globalists, which was precisely OPPOSITE of all the positions to retain independence from Europe, which were the core policies of Lady Thatcher.

I have done some interviews in Britain where the host reluctantly put me on the air because of my connection with Lady Thatcher and their obstinacy about even trying to understand her policies. Many regard her as the most hated Prime Minister, all because they were used to handouts. They claim that she destroyed Britain’s manufacturing industry, and her policies led to mass unemployment. That was absurd, for the world was engulfed in the crisis at the time – not just Britain.

I advised companies that wanted to get into the EU and needed skilled labor to place them in Britain, while I placed those that needed the best tax deals, like airlines, in Ireland. Thatcher had heard that there was this guy rearranging companies and wanted to meet me. She asked me why I placed industries in Britain compared to other European countries. I explained that the cost per employee in other regulations was 40% less in Britain compared to Germany at the time.

Others argued that she presided over 15% interest rates. Again, that was not unique to Britain; it was a global trend. Most of the complaints about Thatcher were based on their ignorance of global trends. No single country can reverse a worldwide recession, no matter who the politician might be. The very best you can do is minimize the volatility and depth of the decline.

I did feel the public would never understand her reasoning regarding the poll tax. She felt that if people had skin in the game, this would limit government waste. But the people, I said, are like dogs. They are satisfied with the scraps from your table, not about jumping on your table and eating the whole meal. Others complain that she sowed the seeds of NHS Privatisation. I think Russia proved, as did ancient Byzantium, that the government is INCAPABLE of running anything efficiently. Those who hated Thatcher seemed to want to be taken care of and had no interest in their country.

Thatcher Federal Europe

What the self-centered haters of Thatcher refuse to understand, no less acknowledge, is that she SAVED Britain. I remember she said if she walked across the Thames River, they would say it was because she did not know how to swim. The coup staged against her by John Major and others was to take Britain into the fantasy land of the Euro. Major took Britain into the ERM and overvalued the pound, which led Soros to make his fortune thanks to John Major and others.

She knew that Tony Blair would win long before there were polls. When I asked why, she told me, “It’s Just Time.” She understood cycles better than any Western politician I have ever met. So while the ignorant still hate Margaret Thatcher, they will now get to see what voting for self-interest will do with promises of more money.

Economy Politics

The one thing I have learned from our computer is that if you turn the economy around with these Economic Confidence Model turning points, you will get political change. What is sweeping the world is that 60% of it is going to an election, and WHOEVER is in power is just being thrown out. The Globalists have been trying to take over everything, creating their dream of a one-world government headed by the United Nations with the elimination of our right to vote on anything. Their dream is a global dictatorship. Democracy must end as part of their agenda. It is refreshing to see Macron in trouble, as is Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. World leaders like Trudeau in Canada, Biden in the USA, and Ursula in the EU have a common goal – war against Russia at all costs and the creation of this one-world government bringing Democracy to an end. The people are responding regardless if they call themselves conservative, liberal, labour, or communist. Whoever is in power is taking the brunt of this global political shift.

Schwab WEF End of Democracy

Categories:POLITICS

Interview: 2020 Coup, Bitcoin


Posted origtinally on Jun 15, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

Play the video above or click here to watch my most recent interview with Howe Street on “This Week in Money.”

USA Watchdog Interview 6-8-24


Posted originally on Jun 9, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

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Watch the London ECM Seminar


Posted originally on Jun 5, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

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We would like to thank our invaluable AE community for gathering together in London for the Economic Confidence Model seminar. I heard some say that the annual event has become akin to a reunion of friends. It is indeed a distinct congregation of concurring intellects seeking truth.

If you missed the seminar, there is still an opportunity to purchase a virtual ticket. This option will provide you with a complete video of the event, as well as the slides displayed during the presentation and special reports.

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Click here or on the button above to learn more.

Stay tuned for the next AE event. We will make an announcement on this blog once preparations are underway.

The Dow Hits First Target 40,000 – What’s Next?


Posted originally on May 17, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

COMMENT: It is baffling why you are not on the front page of the WSJ, Barons, London FT, NY Times, and every financial newspaper claiming to be interested in markets. In the ’80s, when the Dow was 1,000, you forecast it would reach 6,000 by 1996. On the day of the 1987 low, you said the market would make new highs by 1989. You forecast the Nikkei high at 40,000 for 1980. Even after the 2007-2009 crash, you said the low would hold, and we would see new highs. In at least 2013, you said the Dow would test 40,000. You have correctly forecasted every crash and every high, yet the pretend main financial press will never report the truth.

You have shown the world that forecasting from a quantitative view rather than opinion is possible. My hat is off to you. You get standing ovations at conferences. You are a world teacher.

See you in London.

LS

REPLY: Thank you. I think the bias stems from what I experienced in school. The physics professor said nothing is random, and in economics class, they said it is random, like a drunk walking in the park staggering back and forth. So, we can follow Marx and Keynes and manipulate society to produce the perfect world.

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Djow New High Barrons

Even in 2013, the first projection was 40,000. In 2018, I again warned that 40,000 was not the extreme target but the medium range. You have to comprehend that everything is connected. You cannot have the Dow going to 40,000 and nothing else happens. The question now is that with the Neocons pushing for World War III before the economy and Europe also in desperate straight needing war, we have a clash of trends converging where there is nearly $11 trillion in US debt maturing this year, which I warned about on Feb 18, 2024.

ECM Eonomic Confidence Model Public Private MA

Do we get the knee-jerk reaction when people realize we have a DEBT CRISIS about to smack us in the face BEFORE the election? Or do we need war to get the foreigners to buy the debt that China will not? How long will it take people to figure out you need to hide in private assets – not public? That will dictate the length of a knee-jerk correction. This is why it takes a computer to make such projections – not personal opinions.

Time Magazine 2009

History dictates that they will only look at what I have done after Scotty has beamed me up – rarely ever before without a major crisis. That is just the way the prejudices and biases exist in human society. You will never extinguish them. Good and bad, that’s what makes us all human. Still, from time to time, there have been some who reported the forecasts.

Asia Kabushiki Shinbun – February 6 1995

Dow Passes Record-Breaking 40,000 Midday – Jan 2020 Forecast Comes to Fruition


Posted originally on May 16, 2024 By Martin Armstrong

The Dow surpassed 40,000 during midday trading for the very first time this Thursday. In a January 2020 interview with Andrew McCreath from BNN Bloomberg I explained that the Dow was heading up. The video was posted with the headline “DOW 40,000” and everyone dismissed my forecast as if it were my own personal opinion. I made similar statements in other interviews, such as my interview with Financial Sense five years ago in August 2019. I reiterated this forecast in a 2021 interview and continued to stick by the computer without relying on personal opinion.

I was asked how I knew then that we’d be where we were at now. My answer is the same — I just follow the models.

The Dow was 29240 on the day of the interview with BNN Bloomberg, and while many feared a correction was coming, I explained any dip was likely short-term in nature and that it would need to drop below 19000 to be truly considered a bear market – BUT that fell on deaf ears. Even with the notable COVID dip that soon followed this interview, the market bounced right back to new highs thereafter and the models stayed on track over the long term. We experienced one of the most HATED bull markets in history. Despite all of the turmoil over the years, The Dow consistently went up for over a decade but all the talking heads insisted it would go down.

DOW JONES dollars

So what’s next, as indicated by Socrates? The computer sees the Dow rising to 65,000 by 2032 when we are likely to see a change in not just the markets but governments worldwide. Governments throughout the world are still in trouble and the money remaining on the grid is fleeing into the US.

Watch the Dow for it will show you where the international money is flowing. The big players are not interested in small tech or companies that could go under. The S&P 500 is domestic-oriented, and fund managers and institutions tend to focus on this index. The NASDAQ typically reflects retail, often tech-heavy, and usually does not peak at the same time. Each index offers a completely different perspective. The Dow Jones Industrials is the big money. You will notice that this index leads the way. It is the first out of a key low because it is typically the foreign capital based on currency. You will also notice the Dow tends to top out first because the big money tends to pull out first also due to currency.

Capital is flowing like never before, and the smart money is on the move. Socrates users have access to our capital flow heat map that shows where money is moving in real time. The USD remains the last safe haven, and money is pouring into the US.

 

Interview: You Need Two Years Worth of Food


Posted originally on May 11, 2024 By Martin Armstrong 

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Click here to watch my latest interview on USAWatchdog.

Commentary from Greg Hunter:

“Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong has new data on how well the Biden economy is doing.  Spoiler alert:  It’s not doing well, and the financial system is about to tank.  I asked Armstrong if the US government could default on its debt if countries around the world continue to stop buying it?  Armstrong explained, “I think the US could default on its debt as early as 2025, but probably in 2027.  We have kicked the can down the road as far as we can go.  It’s not just in the United States.  Europe is in the same boat.  So is Japan.  This is why they need war.  They think by going into war, that’s the excuse to default on the debt.  They simply will not pay China.  If they try to sell their debt–good luck.  We are not redeeming it.  The same thing is happening in Europe.  So, once that happens, you go into war, and that is their excuse on this whole debt thing to collapse, which wipes out pensions etc.  Then they can blame Putin.  This is the same thing Biden was doing before saying this was Putin’s inflation.  Then, with the whole CBDC thing (central bank digital currency) . . . .  the IMF has already completed its digital coin, and they want that to replace the dollar as the reserve currency for the world. . . . These people are desperately just trying to hang on to power.  Nobody wants to give it up, and nobody wants to reform.”

I asked Armstrong what should the common person be doing now?  Armstrong surprisingly said, “I think you need, safely, two years’ worth of food supply. . . .This is what I have.   It’s not just prices will go up, but mainly because there will be shortages.  Then, you do not know what they are going to do with the currency. . . . They will do whatever they have to do to survive.  That’s what governments always do.”

Armstrong says his most recent data suggests that government approval ratings in the USA are worse that Biden’s 8% approval rating.  Congress, according to Armstrong, is dragging the bottom with a 7% approval rating.  Armstrong has long said that people will buy gold and silver when faith in government crashes.  That is exactly what Armstrong is seeing around the world today.  Gold is bouncing around the $2,300 level, and Armstrong sees “a new gold and silver rally coming soon.”  War is also coming sooner than later with the announcement that Ukraine will be joining NATO as early as July.   When the next war starts, Armstrong warns, “You are going to have to watch the bank because long term interest rates are going to go up.  Nobody wants to buy government debt, and you are going to have to hunker down at that stage in the game.”

Armstrong is also predicting a big turn on or about May 7th of next week.  Armstrong predicts a recession will start then and go on until 2028.  GDP will continue to fall, and inflation will continue to rise.  Armstrong says it is the perfect storm for a dreaded “stagflation economy.”

There is much more in the 54-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong, who will preview his “Mid-Year Seminar” in London May 24 & 25 for 5.4.24.”

On the ECM and Why


Posted originally on Apr 22, 2024 By Martin Armstrong