Category The Red Pill or the Blue Pill

Sep 11 2022

For Those Who Do Not Remember 9/11


Armstrong Economics Blog/North America Re-Posted Sep 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Those in college do not recall 9/11/01. College freshmen were only three or four years old at the time of the attack. They do not recall the ongoing search for Osama bin Laden or the frequent briefings from former President George W. Bush. Even young adults beyond college do not recall life before the Patriot Act and the abandonment of our privacy. They have always seen TSA at airports and terrorism warnings. The Patriot Act changed everything, and all Americans were forced to surrender their freedom to the government under the guise of “national security.” National security has been used to justify government surveillance ever since that tragic morning.

This may be why they are comfortable handing over power to government, and tend to vote blue, as they do not know of a life with fewer government restrictions. It is hard to explain how that event shaped the trajectory of America. It was used as a convenient excuse to begin a war that became one of the longest in America’s history. In addition to the 2,996 people who were killed on 9/11, countless soldiers have lost their lives. First responders are still facing the repercussions of the asbestos and debris that caused an array of health issues. Before the attack, America felt it was invincible. Yes, there was Pearl Harbor, but again that event was too far back to remember and was directed at a military base. An attack on American soil at the Twin Towers that signified capitalism in all its glory was completely unfathomable.

For those who do not remember 9/11 – America was a different place once upon a time. I encourage you to dig deeper as the true events that occurred on that day are NOT what they teach in school.

Sep 11 2022

Tucker’s View of Queen Elizabeth II


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Sep 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The death of Queen Elizabeth II is truly the end of an era. Unfortunately, now Charles III is influenced by none other than Kaus Schwab. Just as James Bond was killed in the last movie, the end of everything seems to be unfolding. We are embarking on a whole new era and the last 10 years of this cycle will be chaotic and outright nasty and then a new dawn will appear after the fall in 2032.

Sep 11 2022

Massive Increases in U.S Natural Gas Exports are Driving Up U.S. Energy Prices


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022

It is good to see at least one energy finance analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, speaking commonsense.  In an article by Clark Williams-Derry for Barron Magazine [SEE HERE], the author accurately outlines how significant U.S. Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) exports are driving up prices for American consumers.

The author accurately refutes the notion that exports do not drive-up domestic prices, by walking through the example of how natural gas prices dropped for U.S. consumers when the liquefied natural gas plant in Quintana, Texas [Freeport LNG] was temporarily shut down, blocking a portion of the export capacity.  However, that facility is about to come back on-line and with increased exports from other facilities domestic U.S. prices have already doubled.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Association (IEA), U.S. storage of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) is 12% below the five-year average (LINK).  Additionally, the IEA is expecting the U.S. to export 11.7 billion cubic feet of LNG per day during the fourth quarter of 2022 — up 17% from the third quarter. The destination of that export is Europe.

Consider that 43% of U.S. households use LNG for home heating, and power suppliers use LNG to create electricity.  With the massive 2022 exports of LNG to Europe (+17% in fourth quarter alone), that means lower domestic supplies and increased prices here in the United States for electricity and home heating.  We are seeing and feeling these massive price increases right now.

Barrons – […]  If you need more evidence of the impact of natural gas exports on prices, just compare supply and demand fundamentals for the year leading up to February 2020 (the last pre-pandemic month) versus the year leading up to this May (the most recent month with full federal data). Annualized production rose over the period, while domestic consumption remained roughly flat. Yet LNG exports almost doubled—a surge that tightened U.S. gas markets and doubled the price that U.S. consumers pay for the fuel. 

The growth of global demand for U.S. LNG can be tied to many market forces, including the shortfalls in Europe due to Russia’s manipulation of European Union gas markets. Sustained high demand in wealthy Asian nations has contributed to export growth as well. And so has the U.S. gas industry’s dogged determination to ship its wares to the highest bidder, foreign or domestic. 

Russia’s role has been particularly critical in the rise of global LNG demand. As Russia choked off gas shipments to Europe, EU buyers have turned to global LNG markets to make up the shortfall. Global LNG prices rose in response, and U.S. LNG companies ramped up output, shipping more cargoes to Europe. But Russia responded by further clamping down on gas supplies to the EU—a vicious circle that has hurt Europe’s economy even more severely than it has harmed America’s.

There’s little sign that U.S. gas prices will ease in the coming years. Freeport’s demand will be back online soon enough, and there are three other massive LNG export projects under construction, with more than a dozen of others waiting for financing.

[…] Curiously, federal regulators have consistently found that the gas export projects are in the public interest—meaning they were in the economic interest of LNG companies and gas drillers. But now, exports are creating sky-high costs for U.S. consumers, and drillers are reluctant to boost gas output lest prices fall back to earth. So, it’s high time to consider whether soaring U.S. LNG exports are actually in America’s interest—or if, instead, runaway LNG exports are fueling energy inflation and undermining the nation’s economic competitiveness. (read more)

Not only are U.S. taxpayers directly paying for the majority of costs in Ukraine, but we are also subsidizing the European Union by exporting LNG and driving up the price for energy here at home.

We the taxpayers are directly paying Ukraine, and indirectly paying Europe to maintain gas sanctions against Russia.  As a result, we the taxpayers are also paying higher prices here at home.  This is the reality of the current exfiltration of wealth as created by the Biden administration.

FUBAR

Sep 11 2022

U.K Energy Reaches Crisis Point, Britain Announces New Oil and Gas Leases and Lifts Moratorium on Fracking


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 

There is a particular historical irony in the timing.  On the same day King Charles III ascends the throne, previously Europe’s most isolated from consequence – yet loudest voice in chasing the catastrophic climate change energy policies, the British government is forced to reverse course on years of energy regulations and restrictions.

Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced, “a new round of oil and gas licensing will come next week with more than 100 licenses issued. A moratorium on fracking will be lifted and planning permission can be sought where there is local support,” in an urgent emergency effort to lower energy costs for British citizens.

The move comes in combination with a government plan to help citizens and businesses cope with skyrocketing prices for electricity and home heating fuel.  The climate change chickens have come home to roost throughout Europe and the British government is urgently trying to head-off the calamitous consequences.

Inside the media announcements of the Truss plan, the biggest concern expressed is how the financial and multinational banking sector (the ESG investment groups) will respond to the government position. After decades of ideological “green” outlooks flowing into the energy industry, the biggest concern expressed in the financial analysis is how a reversal by such a large economic system will reverberate.

The climate change ideology has a stranglehold on the energy sector of the economy, this move by Great Britain would be the most significant push-back in decades.  The minority green activists are apoplectic that they may lose control over the majority of opinion.  The economics of a reversal in energy policy could reverberate throughout the western alliance, particularly in Europe.  It will be interesting to see whether this shift in U.K. policy has ripple effects in the U.S.

LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Britain’s move to green-light dozens of new oil and gas fields will leave investors and banks with a tough PR job as Britain struggles to shore up its energy security whilst sticking to its climate commitments.

Starting new oil and gas projects runs counter to the world’s shift away from fossil fuels in the fight against global warming and a commitment at last November’s U.N. climate talks to phase down their use.

Yet runaway inflation amid conflict in Ukraine has forced the hand of new British prime minister Liz Truss as Russian President Putin seeks to use energy as a weapon this winter.

Britain will launch a new round of oil and gas licensing next week with more than 100 licenses issued, part of a wider package of measures to tackle the energy crisis announced by Truss on Thursday.

And Britain’s not alone in reassessing its energy strategy. Germany, for example, has been forced to turn back to even dirtier thermal coal to help fuel its power plants and keep the lights on, hampering short-term efforts to rein in climate-damaging carbon emissions.

But for energy companies and the investors, bankers and insurers that finance them, new investment in fossil fuels also presents a challenge given many have made their own pledges to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.

“This will absolutely hinder companies’ … ability to hit their climate targets,” said Pietro Bertazzi, global director of policy engagement and external affairs at non-profit environmental disclosure platform CDP. (read more)

This is the first crack in the western alliance and the ‘climate change’ agenda of the World Economic Forum as it relates to energy policy and ultimately control over human life within the alliance.

The war in Ukraine was being used as a justification to explain the consequences of European energy policy, particularly rapidly increasing costs for energy and food, but the war in Ukraine was not the cause.  The true root cause of the exploding inflation and economic mess was the Build Back Better agenda, and the series of policies dictated from within it, that each nation willingly accepted.

Sep 11 2022

Fearing a Complete Shutdown from Russia, Europe Scraps Plans to Cap Russian Gas Prices


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 | Sundance 

War is an outcome of ideology and economics, and the latter is perhaps the most powerful weapon.  As the harsh reality of Europe’s insufferable decades-long efforts to embrace the virtues of climate change begin to settle in, the reasonable adults in the conversation are able to see how their weakness is being exploited by their adversary.

On Sept 7, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference in Brussels, announcing five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine.” {Go Deep}

However, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it very clear that any further efforts to weaken his economy, via western sanctions and interventionist efforts against his economy, would be met with retaliation in the form of cutting off all oil and gas supplies to Europe.  It appears the Europeans now understand the nature of their vulnerability.

(Via Reuters) – The EU has dropped plans to cap the price it pays for Russian gas.

Energy ministers from the bloc met Friday (September 9) in Brussels. They scrapped plans for the cap after the idea failed to win broad support.

Member states in central and eastern Europe who still get gas from Russia feared retaliation by Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin had said he would cut off supplies altogether if a cap was imposed.

However, ministers did agree to claw back revenues from some power producers and will use the money to curb consumer bills. European energy prices are typically set by gas plants. That leaves generators using nuclear, wind or coal raking in revenue, as their running costs haven’t risen as much or at all.

On Friday, some EU nations also argued in favor of a general cap on all gas imports. However, European energy commissioner Kadri Simson said any such move would be risky:

“The general price cap, including LNG imports, could present a security of supply challenge, because the LNG market is a global market. We are not among the three biggest LNG-importing regions or countries, and there is very strong competition in the LNG market and right now it is very important that we can replace the decreasing Russian volumes with alternative suppliers.”

The EU windfall plan will now be fleshed out in the coming days, with another meeting of energy ministers seen possible later in the month. (read more)

President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen previously announced five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine. And now our work is paying off. At the start of the war, gas from Russian pipelines accounted for 40% of all imported gas. Today it has dropped to only 9% of our gas imports. These are tough times. But I am convinced that Europeans have the economic strength, the political will and the unity to maintain the upper hand,” she said.  The United States and Norway are the primary suppliers of gas to the EU to fill the void.

Commissar von der Leyden’s five initiatives included:

(1) Conservation of electricity through forced and mandated cuts in electricity use.  The amount of the cut has yet to be determined but reducing demand through forced curtailment of electricity use is the first approach.  [Insert California as an example here in the United States.]

(2) A cap on the profit generated by energy suppliers who use renewable energy like wind and solar.  The renewable industry has lower costs, yet they are profiting from the top line increase in delivered electricity.  The EU commissar is proposing to confiscate the profits of Green Energy suppliers, direct the funds to the member states and then use those funds to subsidize the energy costs of poorer EU citizens.

(3) A cap on the profits generated by traditional fossil fuel energy suppliers (oil, coal, nuclear, gas electricity generation), and the diversion of those profits following the same formula as above.

(4) Banking support and financial liquidity for smaller regional energy providers who are having short term financial issues as they must pay massive amounts of money for the raw material needed to generate electricity.  Essentially, the cost of coal, oil and LNG has skyrocketed, and there is a lag between the time they energy company must pay for the fuel source and the time the customer pays the electricity bill.   The inbound fuel costs (new) are so extreme the inbound payments for prior electricity (old) are not covering the cost of the new supplier purchase.

(5) A price cap on Russian natural gas.  To accompany the increased import of Norwegian and U.S. gas.  This sounds like a bizarro effort to manipulate the market which could backfire.  If Russian gas is cheaper than EU market gas, the smart energy providers will purchase the Russian gas.

Number five is now scrapped.

Not a single word about increasing the supply of any traditional energy resource.  These EU ideologues -bureaucrats within a system that is not representative of democracy- are so committed to the cult of climate change and renewable energy, they are willing to destroy the EU economy in order to lower demand to the level of their windmills and solar farms.  However, it looks like alternate, perhaps even sensible people within the EU, are starting to realize the ‘climate change’ ideologues are the real and present danger.

Sep 10 2022

When a Clown Moves into a Palace


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized Re-Posted Sep 10, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

-Record-high inflation

-Proxy war with Russia

-Open borders

-Loss of energy independence

-Looming recession

-Reckless spending

-Woke agenda

-Increase in violent crimes

-Polarized nation

-Compromised elections

-America now seen as vulnerable to enemies

The list goes on and on…

Sep 10 2022

President Trump and DOJ Present Their Selections for Special Master Appointment


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 | Sundance

Lawyers representing the DOJ National Security Division (DOJ-NSD) and lawyers representing President Trump have presented their list of candidates for Special Master to review documents seized from Mar-a-Lago. [8-page pdf Here]

The DOJ-NSD has listed their candidates including:

♦ The Honorable Barbara S. Jones (ret.) – retired judge of the United States District Court for the Southern District of New York, partner in Bracewell LLP, and special master in In re: in the Matter of Search Warrants Executed on April 28, 2021 and In the Matter of Search Warrants Executed on April 9, 2018.

♦ The Honorable Thomas B. Griffith (ret.) – retired Circuit Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, special counsel in Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP, and Lecturer on Law at Harvard Law School.

President Trump lawyers have listed their candidates including:

♦ The Honorable Raymond J. Dearie (ret.) – former Chief Judge of the United States District Court for the Eastern District of New York, served on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, formerly the United States Attorney for the Eastern District of New York.

♦ Paul Huck, Jr.—founder, The Huck Law Firm, former Jones Day partner, former General Counsel to the Governor, former Deputy Attorney General for the State of Florida.

The majority of the remaining filing lists the agreements of both the DOJ-NSD and Trump lawyers, as well as points of disagreement for how the special master process should continue.   The position of the DOJ-NSD is the special master should not review any documents they deem classified or vital to national security, regardless of whether they contain markings or not.   The DOJ just doesn’t want anyone to review what they are calling “classified documents.”

President Trump’s lawyers contend the special master should review all of the documents, regardless of DOJ-NSD definitions, and make an independent determination as to the validity of the DOJ-NSD claims, as well as consideration for ‘executive privilege.’

Plaintiff believes the Government’s objection to the Special Master reviewing documents they deem classified is misplaced. First, the Government’s position incorrectly presumes the outcome — that their separation of these documents is inviolable. Second, their stance wrongly assumes that if a document has a classification marking, it remains classified in perpetuity. Third, the Government continues to ignore the significance of the Presidential Records Act (“PRA”). If any seized document is a Presidential record, Plaintiff has an absolute right of access to it while access by others, including those in the executive branch, has specified limitations. Thus, President Trump (and/or his designee) cannot be denied access to those documents, which in this matter gives legal authorization to the Special Master to engage in first-hand review.  (filing source)

At the heart of the matter, we find ourselves back in the original place we were in 2017, when we first began discussing the relationship between the DOJ-NSD and the FISA Court surrounding the issue of the Carter Page FISA application.

The DOJ-NSD is an agency within the DOJ that views themselves as beyond any apparatus that would conduct oversight.  This is the entire reason why the DOJ National Security Division refused to accept any inspector general oversight from formation until 2020.  In essence, the DOJ-NSD quantifies everything they do as vital to the interests of national security, and therefore beyond the reach of any outside entity to review or audit their work.

Using the national security angle, just as the FISA court is a star chamber within the judicial branch seemingly omnipotent and without a counterbalancing check on their power, so too is the DOJ-NSD a star chamber within the executive branch.  The DOJ-NSD makes determinations and then says, as in the example of the Trump documents, these things are what we say they are – and you have no standing to question us.

Both the FISA court and the DOJ-NSD operate in the realm of omnipotent power and internal definitions, and the legislative branch doesn’t do anything about it; worse yet, the legislative branch defers to the arbitrary determinations of both.

Within this corrupted and bastardized system, you find the FISC and DOJ-NSD are two of the four pillars that construct the unspoken Fourth Branch of Government. The other two are the Dept of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.  Few people have yet to grasp what takes place, and fewer still will admit it exists.  Yet, the outlines of the political operations that take place within this fourth branch surface frequently.

[Understand the Fourth Branch] 

Sep 10 2022

McConnell Senate PAC Urging MAGA Senate Candidates to Ask Trump PAC for More Money


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 9, 2022 | Sundance 

The internecine angle to the intra-party political and financial conflicts come via Politico, so apply that prism accordingly. However, the overarching background of the story (as presented) does align with the internal party power conflict we all know about.

According to the outline, Mitch McConnell has withdrawn spending of the Senate PAC funds from MAGA senate candidates. McConnell is telling his senators who are more favorably aligned with President Trump, to push the Trump PAC to spend more on them if Trump wants to see them win in 2022.

President Trump has, and continues to, support all of the MAGA candidates with direct funding [See FEC Filing], campaign rallies [LINK], and major big donor fundraisers [LINK], including at least one example of excessive funds distributed [LINK].   However, whenever anything involves McConnell, particularly when it involves money, it is critical to apply a Machiavellian prism to McConnell’s DeceptiCon motives.

By now everyone should know Senator McConnell holds no fundamental interest in being in the majority.  Nothing in his power structure changes if Democrats are in the majority.  From McConnell and the club approach, the “control of the senate” argument is a fundraising gimmick.  Give the DeceptiCons control of the senate and nothing structurally changes in the policy or legislative sphere.  Reference the 2014 to 2020 GOPe control, anti-Trump resistance, budgets and support for Obamacare, as examples of the last time the GOPe had senate majorities.

Absent of any real motivation to gain a republican majority in the senate, illusions and pretenses dropped, the “battle for control of the senate” simply comes down to a strategy of what is best to support Big Corps, and downstream fundraising.  However, the fundraising angle does afford Mitch the opportunity to leverage more power and eliminate influence.

By withdrawing financial support and telling MAGA candidates to go get money from Trump, McConnell positions his power in the senate to bleed his opposition of resources, in this example, Donald Trump.

Mitch creates a club narrative that Donald Trump is not supporting the MAGA candidates who gained victories in the primary.  He also seeks to bleed Donald Trump of money so that a more ‘acceptable republican’ can challenge him financially later on.

President Trump has around $100 million in his Super PAC.  Meanwhile Ron DeSantis has around $200 million in his PAC, and the Republican party of Florida (a completely separate club entity) is doing all the campaign spending so that DeSantis keeps his coffers full for the looming 2024 presidential race.

Team DeSantis isn’t spending much on his Florida governor’s race, other than small campaign expenses, because he doesn’t need to.  All those commercials, advertising, marketing and solicitation you see are from alternative groups (like the republican party of Florida), not the DeSantis campaign itself.

With around $200 million in the bank, minimal spending rate and 60 days before the election, why would a state candidate be traveling around the country to collect donations? The simple answer is the collection is not for the current state race.  DeSantis is building a 2024 war chest.

Insert McConnell and now you can easily make the argument the corporate club ownership is attempting to bleed one candidate (Trump) in order to quietly build another acceptable replacement (DeSantis).  The internal club games on display.

(Politico) – Mitch McConnell is indirectly nudging Donald Trump to help Republicans try to flip the Senate, part of a broader GOP campaign to get the former president to open up his well-stocked coffers for the rest of the party.

[…] The effort to get Trump to unlock his PAC stash is yet another sign of his seismic effect on the Republican Party. He is sucking up a massive portion of GOP donations (including a sizable chunk of the grassroots dollars) in a midterm election year. That, in turn, has given him significant sway while out of office — even after many Senate Republicans, including McConnell, soured on Trump after the insurrection at the Capitol on Jan. 6.

Now they insert the false premise:

[…] The private push to get Trump to financially engage in a number of battleground states comes as the former president sits on roughly $99 million, stored in his PAC. That unused cash is drawing increased attention from GOP leaders as the midterms approach, with Trump’s own endorsed candidates lagging in polls and trailing their Democratic opponents in fundraising.

As previously noted, President Trump continues to support, finance, campaign and fundraise for all the MAGA candidates. However, the Decepticon strategy involves creating a fallacy to assist the agenda.

[…] One Republican senator, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the situation, doubted that Trump would loosen his purse strings even for his own candidates given the long-running tensions between him and Senate Republicans — a sentiment echoed in part by some operatives close to the former president.

“It’s not Trump’s job to elect a Senate majority,” said one Trump world adviser.

But others were more hopeful.

“In at least a couple of those races, there’s a really compelling argument for him to be involved. He’s got a huge wad of cash that could make a difference,” said Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.)  (read more)

The only thing more frustrating than watching republican DC politics, is watching republican DC politics unfold while the majority of voting republicans do not accept what is taking place.   Republican voters are in an abusive relationship with the Republican Club, yet so many just cannot accept it.

Once you realize the goals of the people who control the Republican Club are the exact opposite goals of the voters who continue voting to keep them in office, only then can the battered conservative dynamic be broken.   Unfortunately, that level of realization is painful because we start to realize the scale and scope of what the abuser would do in their effort to keep us under their control.

Sep 9 2022

Electric Air Taxis Coming Soon


Armstrong Economics Blog/Technology Re-Posted Sep 9, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Technological advancements are quite an amazing achievement. Although I never thought I’d see them in my lifetime, electric air taxis may become commonplace in the not-so-distant future. United Airlines announced that they are investing in air taxis from Eve Air Mobility and have already purchased 200 four-seat electric aircrafts. Eve, which was listed on the NYSE in May, will receive an additional $15 million investment from United. Flying taxis or eVTOLs (electric vertical take-off and landing vehicles) are designed for short commuter trips.

United also purchased 100 electric aircrafts from Archer Aviation. They expect the first shipments to arrive in 2026. Airlines Ventures President Michael Leskinen projects that a one-way trip to the airport would cost between $100 to $150, but these air taxis only have a range of 60 miles. This is a workaround to abide by the coming zero carbon emission laws but certainly will not be a replacement for affordable public transportation that many in the working class rely on.

Much is unknown about this new technology. Eve plans to hold a simulation later in the week in Chicago to study how eVTOLs will function in an urban environment. It is always refreshing to see technological advancement as innovation paves the way for opportunity.

Sep 9 2022

Arizona Governor Candidate Kari Lake Responds to a Question About Being Donald Trump’s Running Mate


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 8, 2022 

Following an Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry 2022 Gubernatorial Candidate Forum, where GOP candidate Kari Lake and Democrat Marxist Katie Hobbs, answered Arizonans’ questions, only one candidate was willing to talk to the media after the event and take direct questions.

MAGA Republican Kari Lake is strong, formidable and skilled in her approach toward the media.  Lake’s use of the atomic sledgehammer of truth is almost unparalleled.  In this brief soundbite she is questioned about becoming President Donald Trump’s 2024 running mate.  Here is how she responded. WATCH:

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The video of the full candidate forum is below.