Posted originally on the CTH on January 2, 2023 | Sundance
It’s almost painful to go to the grocery store today, not just because the prices for everything are so high, but also because seeing the stress amid the working-class shopping is palpable. Unfortunately, while we may have a momentary plateau on current pricing, there’s a strong possibility another wave of higher prices is yet to come.
At the core of the issue are energy prices which continue to rise. The immediate cycle of energy price hikes, a direct consequence of political policy, has lessened somewhat and we are now in that slow tick upward as the pressure on oil, gas, heating and electricity prices continues.
Michael Burry, famous for his predictions in/around the U.S. housing market, is noticing the same thing as CTH. “Inflation peaked. But it is not the last peak of this cycle,” he said. “We are likely to see CPI lower, possibly negative in 2H 2023, and the US in recession by any definition. Fed will cut and government will stimulate. And we will have another inflation spike. It’s not hard.”
Peak demand side inflation is long in the rearview mirror, but the peak of supply side inflation is questionable at best – I would say it’s a plateau, not a peak.
The price of goods, including industrialized and processed raw materials from China are going to increase again – and simultaneously become less consistent in availability. This is going to make prices extremely volatile in 2023.
Essentially, everything around price is tenuous as the western economies absorb the full impact of this Build Back Better energy policy, and into this foray comes China with production and processing challenges as a result of COVID bubbles being removed. We are seeing this problem right now in the pharmaceutical industry and with ordinary medicines becoming scarcer on store shelves.
With the macro economy showing a consumer collapse in spending on goods, the economy will contract again. However, the prices of essential products continue to sustain upward pressure. What does this look like in real terms? Less income amid the workforce and consistently higher prices. We need to be as prepared for this scenario as humanly possible.
Many people have written with sincere appreciation for the CTH forecasts delivered in the fall of 2021. I am thankful to have been of benefit to those who could take proactive measures to avoid the economic issues we faced in 2022. However, I am worried now.
I am worried because the downside to this economic contraction is going to hit the already tenuous and barely surviving middle class the worst. There’s only so much a person/family can do to offset rising energy costs. I listen to this woman’s voice, and it crushes me because I know and feel that pain (Twitter video):
I know just about every reader on these pages can relate to how financial fear can eat you from the inside. The life game of trying to figure out how to get from one week to the next, keep a roof over your head and keep the kids/grandkids safe and fed is fraught with trepidation. I get it. Believe me, I get it…. But you just gotta keep going; whatever it takes.
2023 is going to be rough for many working families and people on fixed incomes.
This is why I was saying for 2023 we need to focus at home; build that bunker safe and secure.
Then look to help/assist the neighbors, then the community, etc. But start by being proactive at home and do not isolate. Fear, worry, trepidation, foreboding etc, is worse when internalized. Do not swallow it – reach out to a loving God, pray, release it, and then embrace the central purpose in life, fellowship.
This too shall pass.
Centinel2012 