Inflation Rate Jumps to 8.5 Percent as Energy, Food and Gasoline Prices Skyrocket


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 12, 2022 | Sundance 

This is not going to be news to CTH readers and intellectually honest analysts.  The Bureau of Labor and Statistics has released the March consumer pricing data [DATA HERE] showing the recent surge in energy, gasoline and food costs that we have all felt.

The monthly increase of 1.3% brings the annual rate of inflation to 8.5 percent year-over-year.  However, the details tell the exact story we have been outlining for well over six months.   This is the second wave of inflation being recorded.  Grocery store prices (food at home), energy prices, and gasoline prices are all driving the inflation rate. [BLS Table 1]

Again, I modified Table-1 to take out the noise.  The data shows what we have felt for the past two months.  Working class families are feeling the pinch as their wages cannot keep pace with the increase in prices on products that are a priority.  Food, housing, gasoline, energy.

If we were using the old CPI method for analysis, current inflation would be well above 20%.

That said, there are issues also inherent and visible in the data for the non-food and energy segments, what I would call the durable goods side.  First, we are seeing the beginning of the durable good contraction getting quantified as we have previously discussed.   The prices for used vehicles, electronics, appliances and other non-critical durable goods are now flatlining, or even dropping in price.

Every indication within the economy indicates this is being caused by a demand contraction.  People are not purchasing durable goods because their disposable income is gone.  This lack of demand also shows up in wage rate suppression.  Despite high employment, wages are not rising – in part because there is excess productivity in the durable good economy.

You will note from Table-2 [available here] that food away from home, restaurant food, is not climbing as high as food at the grocery store (0.3% -vs- 1.5%).   Restaurants are trying to keep prices down and their profit margins are being eroded.  They are in a tough place, because if restaurants raise prices, they may lose customers who are already feeling pain in their checkbooks.  However, they cannot hold out much longer before raising prices, because the price increases are permanent.

The good news is the March data appears to quantify the apex of the second wave rate of inflation.  The rate of increase in food, fuel and energy will now start to moderate and slow down.  The prices may, likely will, keep going up, but they will go up less dramatically than they have in the past six months.  This price plateau will hopefully remain in place until late summer, that’s when the next harvest food costs will hit in Wave-3.

On the durable goods, what we will see now is a typical demand side issue.  Price increases for durable goods will quickly, if they are not already, be less connected to material costs and more connected to demand.   Obviously, the cost to manufacture, create, produce, transport and deliver durable goods is still experiencing upward pressure due to raw materials.  However, the demand variable will now enter more dominantly.

With wage growth meek and prices still rising on essentials like food, housing, energy and gasoline, demand for non-essential durable goods will drop. The demand decline should naturally put downward price pressure on appliances, electronics, used vehicles, etc.  Unfortunately, this also contracts the overall economy, creates unemployment, and indicates “stagflation.”

(MSM) – […] The consumer price index leaped 8.5% annually, the fastest pace since December 1981, the Labor Department said on Tuesday, likely cementing Federal Reserve plans for an unusually large half-point interest rate hike early next month. That increase is up from 7.9% in February and inflation now has notched new 40-year highs for five straight months. (more)

We will need to watch the service side closely now to see if consumers start to lessen travel, entertainment, and other service side expenses.

Protect your family.  Be frugal, wise and smart with expenses.  However, do not trouble yourself with dark imaginings.

If you are like most here, you have prepared yourself with commonsense actions and you are a doer who fixes problems, not a naysayer who sits around mulling over them.  Your family, kids and/or grandkids as well as your community can benefit from wise, albeit sometimes stern, counsel.  Stand strong, stand firm and stand resolute.

All of these challenges are simply that, challenges.  Work any problem as it arises, including for the kids.  And also remember, God is in charge, not you. So, listen to his instructions.  Listen to that instinct he buried within you.  Draw upon the strength that a loving God constantly provides.

Be a vessel for those who need hope.  Be a guiding light for those who feel distressed. Be cheerfully strong among everyone around you, and thankful for all the kindness you experience.  If you get stuck, start giving….

Ultimately, everything is a choice.  So, be the lighthouse, not the rocks.

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New York Lt Governor Arrested on Bribery and Corruption Charges, Resigns Immediately


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 12, 2022 | Sundance

New York Lieutenant Governor Brian Benjamin (below right) was indicted on bribery, wire fraud, and falsification of records charges.  He turned himself in for arrest and resigned within hours.

NEW YORK – New York Governor Kathy Hochul’s second-in-command pleaded not guilty to bribery charges Tuesday after being indicted for allegedly funneling illicit donations to one of his past campaigns. Benjamin entered the plea in federal court in Manhattan before being released on a $250,000 bond. He surrendered to authorities early in the morning as the indictment was unsealed, the U.S. attorney’s office said.

“While the legal process plays out, it is clear to both of us that he cannot continue to serve as Lieutenant Governor,” Hochul said in an emailed statement. (link)

According to the Washington Post Benjamin was seeking political donations and public matching funds when he enlisted the help of a real estate developer to raise money and disguise its source. In exchange, Benjamin used his official authority to try to steer $50,000 to a charitable organization the developer controlled.  A typical quid-pro-quo.

Danish Study Suggests mRNA-based Vaccines Associated with Greater Overall Mortality


Posted originally on TrialSite News by Staff on April 11, 2022

Recently scientists from Denmark led an important study suggesting that mRNA-based vaccines such as the ones made by Pfizer or Moderna may not be as safe as adenovirus-based vaccines such as Johnson and Johnson, AstraZeneca/Oxford or the one produced by China’s CanSino Biologics. Led by Peter Aaby, a trained physician and anthropologist that runs a health and demographic surveillance system site in West Africa as part of the Bandim Health Project and Dr. Mihai Netea a well-known award winning Romanian/Dutch scientists and Danish colleagues from Odense Patient Data Explorative Network (OPEN) at University of Southern Denmark, the group scrutinized possible “non-specific effects” (NSEs) of the COVID-19 vaccines probing into overall mortality such as not only COVID-19 deaths but also accidental deaths, cardiovascular deaths and other non-COVID-19 deaths. The team discovered that out of 74,193 participants in mRNA clinical trials and 61 deaths, that based on relative risk there was no real difference between the vaccine and placebo group. While in the adenovirus-based studies with 122,164 participants and 46 deaths the vaccine had nearly half the level of deaths as compared to the controls group.

The study team decided to take a step back and look at the COVID-19 vaccine clinical trial data from a different point of view. They did this because “there is now ample evidence that vaccines can have broad heterologous effects on the immune system.” Such effects can either A) greater protection or B) increased susceptibility to unrelated infections or even other non-infectious autoimmune diseases. The authors report that emerging study data reveals that “vaccines may have completely unexpected effects on overall mortality, different from what could be anticipated based on the protection against the vaccine-targeted disease.”

The study results await peer review thus the data shouldn’t be considered evidence. But the novel approach and consequent findings represent an important potential contribution to our scientific knowledge of the COVID-19 vaccines.

Overall Mortality wasn’t Studied

Taking a different perspective, Dr. Aaby and team share that the current batch of COVID-19 vaccines were not tested to evaluate their effects on overall mortality. That would have been difficult given the short follow-up in the studies as subjects participating in the control groups received the vaccine after 3-6 months based on the emergency use authorization situation.

Surprisingly, although all would assume that the COVID-19 vaccines would reduce overall mortality in the pandemic this assumption hasn’t been formally vetted in studies. 

The authors utilized the final study reports available from the COVID-19 vaccine trials investigating the impact of mRNA and adenovirus-vector COVID-19 vaccines on overall mortality, including the previously mentioned other categories such as cardiovascular-related deaths.

The Findings

The table below highlights these study findings:

 ParticipantsDeathsRelative Risk
mRNA74,19361 (mRNA 31; placebo; 30)1.03 (95% CI=0.63-1.71)
Adenovirus122,16446 (vaccine: 16; controls:30)0.37 (0.19-0.70)

Aaby and team report that the adenovirus-vector vaccines were associated with protection against COVID-19 deaths (RR=0.11 (0.02-0.87)) and non-accident, non-COVID-19 deaths (RR=0.38 (0.17-0.88)).

Of note, mRNA-based vaccines differ markedly from adenovirus vaccines regarding impact on overall mortality (p=0.030) as well as non-accident, non-COVID-19 deaths (p=0.046). The placebo-controlled RCTs of COVID-19 vaccines were halted rapidly due to clear effects on COVID-19 infections. Importantly the data derived from this study suggest an important need for randomized controlled trials of mRNA and adeno-vectored vaccines head-to-head comparing long-term effects on overall mortality.

Brief Discussion

Of course, many experts may summarily dismiss such findings as not relevant. After all the COVID-19 studies were designed to determine if the vaccines were effective in protecting against death from SARS-CoV-2, the virus behind COVID-19. Yet the authors point out that “non-specific effects, and their immunological basis, have been established for several other vaccines.”  For example, the authors point to randomized controlled trials showing that BCG vaccine against tuberculosis (TB) lessens neonatal mortality, yet this was because the vaccine protects against deaths from sepsis and respiratory infections.

They point out that “immunological studies have shown that such effects are indeed biologically plausible; BCG positively affects the innate immune system leading to enhanced resistance towards a broad range of pathogens. Furthermore, the BCG vaccine has been associated with decreased systemic inflammation.”

Conclusion

The authors conclude that if their findings are in fact validated by randomized controlled studies then the adenovirus-based vaccines may prove beneficial to their “protective heterologous effects…on non-COVID-19 mortality” as well as their effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 infection.  Could these vaccines represent an advantage in vulnerable populations susceptible to cardiovascular mortality.  Key is a better understanding of the heterologous effects between the different vaccine types.

Study Funding

Dr. Allen Schapira funded the work on non-specific effects of vaccines while some of the previous work was funded by the Danish Council for Development Research, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Denmark; Novo Nordisk Foundation and European Union.   

Lead Research/Investigator

Peter Aaby, DMSc, Bandim Health Project, INDEPTH Network; Bandim Health Institute – OPEN, Institute of Clinical Research

Christine Stabell Benn, University of Southern Denmark – Odense Patient Data Explorative Network (OPEN); Bandim Health Project, INDEPTH Network

Frederik Schaltz-Buchholzer, Statens Serums Institut – Bandim Health Project

Sebastian Nielsen, University of Southern Denmark – Odense Patient Data Explorative Network (OPEN)

Mihai G. Netea, Radboud University Nijmegen – Radboud Center for Infectious Diseases (RCI); Radboud University Nijmegen – Department of Internal Medicine

Related

Dutch Case Report—Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Reactivates Hepatitis C Leading to Death of 82-Year-Old Woman

Dutch Case Report—Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine Reactivates Hepatitis C Leading to Death of 82-Year-Old Woman

Moderna Shares TeenCOVE study Results: Initial Data Reveals mRNA-based Vaccine Safe & Effective for Adolescents 12 yrs. & Up

Moderna Shares TeenCOVE study Results: Initial Data Reveals mRNA-based Vaccine Safe & Effective for Adolescents 12 yrs. & Up

Study: mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Pose ‘Rare but Serious’ Threat

Study: mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines Pose ‘Rare but Serious’ Threat

UK Health Security Agency Reports Mixed Vaccine Effectiveness Stats—Troubling Signals

Explore Further

First Look at Newly Released Pfizer Docs, Part 2: The ‘not necessary’ safety studies

Write for us – we are expanding our list of external authors

Australia Planning to Vaccinate Children Newborn to Age 4 While Heavily Vaxxed Population Faces Largest COVID-19 Case, Death, & Hospitalization Surges

Large Israeli Study Demonstrates Failing Durability of BNT162b2 Yet More Marketability at Least in the Short Run

The No Patient Left Alone Act


Armstrong Economics Blog/Tyranny Re-Posted Apr 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has proven time and time again that he is a man of the people. DeSantis signed SB 988, the No Patient Left Alone Act, which guarantees that no one in the state of Florida will be left to die alone in hospitals, hospices, and long-term care facilities. Under the tyrannical COVID laws, countless people were unable to see their loved ones during their final days. This is a malicious and deliberate attempt to force the population to cave to Big Pharma as the medical community can no longer deny that the vaccination does not prevent transmission.

Numerous states still require proof of vaccination or a PCR test to enter medical facilities. A friend of mine recently lost her grandfather, and her 90-year-old grandmother was prohibited from entering the New York-based facility as she was not vaccinated. The PCR results take time to process and are only valid for a few days. There were no final words or hugs goodbye. These laws have deeply punished everyone in our society.

DeSantis is finally putting an end to this unfounded oppression. “Throughout the pandemic, the federal government has waived protections for families to visit their loved ones in hospitals and long-term care facilities. That is unacceptable,” said Governor Ron DeSantis. “Here in Florida, we recognize that family and human connection is one of the most important aspects of physical, mental, and emotional well-being and we are ensuring Floridians are never again denied the right to see their relatives and friends while in hospitals or nursing homes.”

The new law will protect families and loved ones facing the most painful of circumstances:

  • End-of-life situations.
  • A resident, client, or patient who was living with family before being admitted to the provider’s care is struggling with the change in environment and lack of in-person family support.
  • A resident, client, or patient is making one or more major medical decisions.
  • A resident, client, or patient is experiencing emotional distress or grieving the loss of a friend or family member who recently died.
  • A resident, client, or patient needs cueing or encouragement to eat or drink which was previously provided by a family member or caregiver.
  • A resident, client, or patient who used to talk and interact with others is seldom speaking.
  • For hospitals, childbirth, including labor and delivery.
  • Pediatric patients.

Indeed, the system has also deserted “pediatric patients” due to these unfathomable restrictions. “The No Patient Left Alone Act is about protecting human dignity and compassion,” said Senator Ileana Garcia. This should be protected as a fundamental human right. I do not see this becoming a Federal-level ruling as the Biden Administration wants dissenters to suffer.

People Are Starving Under Shanghai’s Lockdown


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Apr 12, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

People are starving in Shanghai. The screams heard in the disturbing video above are due to more than mere frustration. China placed millions under a strict lockdown that was initially supposed to last for five days. As cases allegedly spread, China extended the lockdown indefinitely under their zero-COVID tolerance policy.

Those who prepared for a five-day lockdown are now rationing what food and water they have left. The tap water is not necessarily safe for consumption, and people have begun to boil water if they have the means to do so. According to my sources, people living within communities rally together to buy bulk food orders when possible for a premium. China is offering a closed-loop system for some workers, who must live at their job site for the remainder of the lockdown. Therefore, workers are in short supply, and demand is extremely high. Hungry citizens typically log on to food delivery apps early in the morning and usually only have a few minutes to place their bulk orders. The food they receive is carefully rationed as the next meal is not guaranteed.

The barter system always emerges in times of disaster. People are trading with one another where possible, although they are forbidden from actually leaving their residences. No one is permitted to visit relatives or check on the elderly or disabled. Worse, people are unable to access medical care or prescription drugs. The government continues to provide rationed food, but its rollout has been so ineffective that most simply do not have access to food.

China will allow its people to die from dehydration and starvation to protect them from a virus with a negligible death rate. This is how revolutions begin.

Tucker Carlson Recaps the Ongoing Horrors in Shanghai, China


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 11, 2022 | Sundance 

During his opening segment tonight, Fox News host Tucker Carlson gave a summary explanation of the horrors in Shanghai, China.  The city of 25 million residents has been locked down by the Chinese Communist Party as an outcome of their zero COVID policy. {Direct Rumble Link}

Desperate people are running out of food and have been locked in their homes from the outside by regional authorities.  The pets, including cats and dogs of residents who tested positive to the COVID-19 virus, have been confiscated and killed by the government.  The scenes and sounds from the area are very troubling as thousands of people scream into the night begging for help and mercy. WATCH:

A few more aspects to this outlined below.

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Philadelphia Returns to Mandatory Indoor Mask Mandate Starting April 18


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 11, 2022 | Sundance

Anthony Fauci gave a warning yesterday that this was going to be the future for all of the United States.

Just in time for the Pennsylvania primary election (May 17th), Philadelphia returns to a mandatory mask mandate.  According to Philadelphia officials, effective April 18th masks “will be required in all indoor public spaces, including schools and childcare settings, businesses, restaurants, and government buildings.”

(ABC Philadelphia) – Philadelphia has become the first major U.S. city to reinstate its indoor mask mandate, following an increase in COVID-19 infections, in recent weeks.

Beginning April 18, masks will be required in all indoor public spaces, including schools, child care settings, businesses, restaurants and government buildings.

“I sincerely wish we didn’t have to do this again. I wish this pandemic was over just as much as any of you, but I am very worried about our vulnerable neighbors and loved ones. My hope that our actions today will slow the spread of COVID and help us avoid seeing our ERs, once again, gets so crowded, that people can’t get timely care when they need it,” Health Commissioner Cheryl Bettigole said during a press conference on Monday. (read more)

Many people have noted a set of common characteristics behind most mask wearers.  Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, represents a high density concentration of those characteristics.

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Reports of Finland and Sweden Likely to Join NATO Highlight Global Financial Cleaving Underway


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 11, 2022 | Sundance

The Financial Times is reporting {link here, paywall} that Finland and Sweden are likely to join the NATO alliance.  According to the reporting {also in Reuters} the application from Finland is expected in June and Sweden shortly thereafter.

Adding Sweden and Finland would be a major escalation in both the western conflict and provocations against Russia, obviously, justified by western leaders as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  However, in the big analysis, the global financial system appears to be the larger issue.

From the outset of the Russian military operation into Ukraine, it was obvious the western alliance was intent on an almost ‘all or nothing‘ confrontation with Russia. The only limits to what the alliance was willing to do was trigger a nuclear showdown through direct military action against Russia to protect the non-NATO country of Ukraine.

The NATO and western government response was a fast system of financial sanctions intended to cripple the Russian economy.  However, Russia responded to those actions with countermoves on the trade front, beginning to establish the first ever non-Euro and non-dollar-based trade system.  In essence, a financial trading system created by the BRICS group (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).

Therefore, if we think about the current status of geopolitics and international finance, the NATO response now involves a priority of controlling and protecting the previously established financial structures of global trade.  A NATO effort to avoid the cleaving is now underway as an outcome of the sanctions against Russia.

As one person put it, “This is a fight for the dollar as reserve currency. Imagine trying to maintain our debt when nobody wants treasury notes. If BRICS succeed, US collapses as an economic power. On the other hand, if we win, Klaus Schwab’s nutty world wins.”  I tend to agree with this outlook because it parallels something we see domestically in the U.S.

In the United States, the people behind Biden and the extreme leftists are rapidly advancing their ideological quest toward the “Green New Deal.”

Coal, oil, and gas exploration/development have been slowed, stymied and halted as the administration chases clean renewable energy goals.

However, the current problem is there’s no intermediate system of energy production to support their push.  This is driving energy costs through the roof, and that problem is magnifying inflation created by prior spending.

During their collective pandemic response, western governments all followed the blueprint laid out by the World Economic Forum (WEF), which was, in essence, to shut down human activities, lock down economies and then spend massively to fill the void.  Almost all western leaders followed this exact advice and spent tens-of-trillions in direct subsidies to people and businesses during their lockdowns and COVID mitigation efforts.

At the end of this interventionist rainbow, the collective was instructed to “build back better,” where the economies they destroyed would be rebuilt through the priority prism of ‘climate change.’  However, just like the absence of any U.S. energy transition, the WEF program also did not have a mechanism to bridge the change from ‘dirty’ to ‘clean’ energy.

All of the western government spending during their COVID plan has created two big issues (crisis):

♦ First, massive inflation in every nation who followed the government spending approach. Not coincidentally, the national rate of inflation in every nation directly correlates to the scale of their spending in relationship to their GDP.   Global inflation is raging amid the nations that locked down and then subsidized the missing economic activity with government spending.

♦ The second crisis is simple.  All of that unsustainable spending has created massive government debt, that has to be paid back.  The debt level within the western nations has skyrocketed.

However, if you take the outlook that WEF instructions were based on forethought this inflation and debt was going to be a natural consequence, a crisis created by following the plan, then it’s also likely the way out of the debt was going to be a global digital currency.  How else could the World Economic Forum members possibly expect to pay for their: (a) current spend level, and (b) grand “build back better” agenda?

That global banking system and multinational financial outlook puts a very important context to how the west would look at the BRICS financial trade mechanisms as a threat.

Additionally, if this financial and banking issue is the true motive of western government, then suddenly a lot of our internal conservative political pro-Ukraine anti-Putin commentary starts to make sense.

People have wondered why folks like Mark Levin, Ben Shapiro and other conservative voices have been pounding the table demanding U.S. military involvement and more punitive actions against Vladimir Putin.  In the U.S., people have wondered why suddenly a major section of the Republican establishment have aligned with the position of the WEF, UN, NATO, World Bank, George Soros, Hillary Clinton, etc.

If you accept the global banking system and international financial system is at risk, due to the strategies of Russia to avoid the sanctions, then suddenly the severe position of those voices makes sense.  Follow the money.

Arguably, this global economic problem (debt and inflation) was directly caused by the collective western government response to COVID.  However, now there’s another aspect that makes the debt and inflation seem small by comparison.  If there was an alternative to currencies deliberately devalued by the collective western approach to government spending, wouldn’t you want to own that?

If the financial systems, central banks, and global financial mechanisms are fractured by an entirely new system to pay for trade, i.e. the BRICS approach, we end up with two distinctly different currencies (still undetermined) to pay for trade.

This outlook puts Sweden and Finland essentially in a position of choosing banking sides.  NATO supporting the maintenance of Euros and Dollars, and the BRICS group, representing almost two thirds of the world population, fighting to go in another direction.

That is the bigger conflict.

WEF -vs- BRICS over trade currency….

…. is also NATO -vs- Russia

…. is also Climate Change -vs- Oil use.

…. is also Globalism -vs- Nationalism

…. is also Feudalism -vs- Freedom

True the Vote, Catherine Engelbrecht and Gregg Phillips, Outline Details of 2020 Ballot Harvesting Process


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 11, 2022 | Sundance 

Catherine Engelbrecht and Gregg Phillips from ‘True the Vote’, sat down with Charlie Kirk for a lengthy interview and discussion about the 2020 ballot harvesting process that took place in multiple states.  {Direct Rumble Link Here}

True the Vote worked through a painstakingly massive data file (2 petabytes) of cell phone use to identify “ballot mules,” people who were paid by political activist groups to gather massive numbers of mail-in ballots, take them to a central facility and then drop them off in various ballot collection boxes in specific states, specific counties and approximately 71 specific precincts.  The trackable cell phone data was then matched with CCTV records to identify and document the ballot harvesting activity that took place.

The results of the data were shared with various public officers, state and federal law enforcement in an effort to document the potentially unlawful activity.  Unfortunately, the political clubs (RNC and DNC) have largely ignored the story and avoided participating in any process that would use the information to bolster security efforts for the 2022 election.  It’s a lengthy discussion with detail, but well worth the time.  WATCH:

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Take out your cell phone. Go to where you would make a call.  Type in *#06# and watch what happens.  That’s the individual cell phone data, the tracking information, that was purchased and utilized by True the Vote to create the mapping of activity.  A fascinating interview.

Another interesting aspect within the interview is the strong likelihood that after the 2020 election, federal law enforcement went through the work of obtaining cell phone tracking data of Trump supporters, then set up an electronic perimeter, a real time surveillance and monitoring system for the January 6th DC protest.  Any pre-selected cell phone that tripped the created electronic fence, would then ping the feds.  The cell phone would be matched to the physical identity of the owner, and that explains the speed of the feds to identify their J6 targets.

Here We Go, White House Warns of Extraordinarily Elevated Inflation Data to Be Released Tomorrow


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 11, 2022 | Sundance

She did it again. Just like in February, when Psaki (seemingly out of the blue) gave a weird proactive statement about bad economic data that was going to be released the following day {LINK}. Earlier this afternoon White House spokesperson Jen Psaki gives another proactive justification for even worse inflation data that is about to be released from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics tomorrow.

In this brief soundbite, Psaki says the March inflation data that is going to be released tomorrow is going to show “Putin’s price hikes” on U.S. consumers.  However, even within the framework of her false justification, she attempts to blame Putin for gas price increases in January, when the Russian military operations did not start until February 24th.  The inflation news is going to be really bad tomorrow. How bad?  WATCH:

None of this will come as a surprise to CTH readers.  We noted in the February inflation data (released in March), that things were going to be much worse in the April release.  The reason was simple, the massive gas price increases were not yet matriculated in the February data, and the massive food inflation was not yet captured by the USDA component. All of that preceded Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.  None of it has anything to do with Vladimir Putin.

The inflation data that will be released tomorrow is the first visible data assembly of the second inflation wave now upon us.  Remember, inflation data lags behind the reality of the price increases. What the BLS will show tomorrow is the price results from the last half of Feb through the half of the month of March.  It will likely show the largest single month inflation increase in modern history.

How bad is the data going to be?

FLASHBACK TO February:  “In my estimation, the massive price increases the bureau quantified through January were the end of the first wave of massive inflation that CTH warned about last October.

“Do what you can do now to start preparing your weekly budget in ways you may not have thought about before.   Shop sales, use coupons, look for discounts and products that can be reformulated into multiple meals or multiple uses.   Shelf-stable food products that can be muti-purposed with proteins is a good start. Consider purchasing the raw materials for cleaning products and reformulate them yourself to avoid these massive increases in petroleum costs.” [October Warning]

The recent announcement of price increases we have discussed, from food producers specifically (Kraft-Heinz, Proctor and Gamble, etc.), in combination with massive fertilizer and farming costs for future yield, is the second wave that has yet to be fully quantified.  The second wave of retail inflation, only just beginning to arrive now in the February results, will extend throughout the spring.

Next month, March data reported in April, the second wave of inflation data should carry the first big jumps in gas and diesel prices.  For ordinary people, this next round of food inflation will be focused predominantly in the ‘Fresh Foods‘ categories.  Fresh produce, vegetables and fruits have short life cycles, and rapid increases in transportation costs hit that segment fast and hard.

On the positive side, our victory gardens are going up in value, very quickly.   A few backyard growing boxes can generate an easy $200 to $500/month in fresh produce as the price of ordinary row crops at the store starts to double and triple.  Mature citrus trees are worth their weight in gold right now.

The BLS data was collected at about the time of the red arrow in this graphic below (Feb 10 to 15).  You can see where the gas price goes from the point at which the inflation data was collected.  That 30% spike is what will roll-up into next month’s inflation data. (Written from the March data)