Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Expectations foresees inflation returning to “pre-tariff” levels. As I have mentioned, the rising costs were a mere price correction and not a permanent rise in inflation. Tariffs were NEVER the root cause of inflation.
The central bank predicts that inflation will read 3% in 13 months, which would be the same level of inflation—at least by the Fed’s calculations—since Trump entered the White House. The Fed was stating that prices would rise 3.6% back in March and April when the tariffs were announced. They blamed the Smoot-Hawley Tariff for the Great Depression, just like they’re now blaming Trump’s tariffs for inflation. It’s a political narrative.
Central bank members see inflation remaining unchanged over the next three to five years at 3% and 2.6% respectively. However, members see prices increasing in food (5.5%), medical (9.3%), gas (4.2%), rent (9.1%), and college tuition (9.1%). There is a plethora of factors leading to inflation in the aforementioned categories, none of which have any relation to tariffs.
Prices have simply not returned to what they once were before the global economy came to a standstill during COVID. Every nation has been affected. The lockdowns and supply chain cracks were exacerbated by a massive increase of government spending. Then the government doubled down on green policies, causing energy prices to rise, and lit the situation ablaze amid the Ukraine war and Russian sanctions. The world was already amid a sovereign debt crisis before COVID, and in fact, the Economic Confidence Model clearly stated that the landscape would permanently change after the Big Bang target of October 1, 2015 (2015.75)—the peak in government confidence.
2015.75 was the beginning of the decline we are witnessing in sovereign bonds globally. The migrant crisis began in 2015 when former German Chancellor Angela Merkel invited Syrian refugees to Europe, leading other Build Back Better nations to follow suit in the years since. Anti-establishment sentiment was already on the rise when Trump first secured the presidency the following year in 2016.
Trump was not the cause, he was the symptom. The people lost faith in the establishment starting in 2015.75 and this is part of the global shift predicted precisely by the system. The Fed thinks inflation is a monetary issue. We are in a sovereign debt crisis, a confidence crisis, and a geopolitical storm and not a normal business cycle.
Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro was once deemed the Donald Trump of his nation. In a similar fashion, the establishment has accused Bolsonaro of orchestrating a coup to retain power after the 2022 presidential election against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
The people independently denied the results of the election and stormed government buildings a week after Lula was inaugurated. The Federal Police uncovered a draft of a coup announcement in former Justice Minister Anderson Torres’s home. After months of detainment, Torres maintained that the document, which he received from a private citizen, was taken out of context and held no legal validity. The plans outlined in the document never occurred, but the establishment maintains that Bolsonaro is a threat to Brazilian democracy.
As our computer warned, there would be intense, politically motivated civil unrest worldwide in November 2022. Ahead of the election, Brazil’s leftist opposition Workers’ Party (PT) Marcelo Arruda was enjoying his birthday celebration in the city of Foz de Iguacu, Parana, when he was shot dead. The vote of 49.1%-50.9% was the closest Brazilian presidential election history since 1985 and marked Bolsonaro’s first political defeat. Bolsonaro supporters held mass protests across the nation to protest Lula’s victory and blocked hundreds of major roadways. Bolsonaro first sided with the protestors, saying they felt “indignation and a sense of injustice.” The intense backlash from across the globe caused Bolsonaro to change course. “I know you are upset… Me too. But we have to keep our heads straight,” Bolsonaro said in a video posted online. “I will make an appeal to you: clear the highways.” Bolsonaro confirmed with Brazil’s Supreme Court that he would willingly hand over power to Lula. “I have always played within the four lines of the constitution,” he said, without declaring defeat. Bolsonaro is already barred from running for office until 2030. The establishment wants to ensure that he is never up for reelection.
This is the precise move that they attempted after January 6 with Donald Trump, who posted on Truth Social: “The only Trial that should be happening is a Trial by the Voters of Brazil – It’s called an Election. LEAVE BOLSONARO ALONE!” Trump has stated that he believes Bolsonaro is “a legal aberration (lawfare), a clear case of political persecution that is now obvious to anyone with common sense.”
As we head into 2032, the United States has shown the world that you can rig elections using criminal law. I reported how Argentina was bringing criminal charges against the opposition simply for saying, do not save pesos because the currency is collapsing. Thus, the government has turned that comment into a crime. In Brazil, the leftist government is desperate to stop former president Jair Bolsonaro, alleging that he was the mentor of “a wilful and premeditated coup attempt,” copying the US on its desperate attempt to imprison Trump on the January 6th nonsense, calling it an insurrection.
Lula was the establishment candidate. Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is a member of the World Economic Forum. His policies align with other WEF leaders and stand in stark contrast to Bolsonaro, who was hated by the globalists. Perhaps more importantly, Bolsonaro refused to align himself with the globalist neocons. He attempted to remain neutral in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and offered to host peace talks. Let us not forget Brazil’s strong economic ties to Russia. Also similar to Trump, Bolsonaro was the victim of a failed assassination attempt when he was stabbed in the abdomen during a political rally. Again, the deep state insisted the assailant was crazed and acted alone, bypassing all security measures to reach one of the most controversial political figures in the nation.
Our models for South America indicate potential civil unrest and even a Panic Cycle in 2025 in Brazil. Our target of 2023 for a Directional Change has appeared on time both in Brazil and in Israel. Brazil is divided like most countries today. The polarization is severe, and the government is desperate to maintain power. This is the total collapse of Republican forms of government as we head into 2032.
Attempting a coup in Brazil is punishable by up to 12 years’ imprisonment. Collectively, the charges against Bolsonaro could result in a prison sentence of up to 40 years, effectively barring him from reentering the political arena. Nations are no longer allowing people to vote for elected officials. It is too much of a risk as confidence in government has collapsed, and the people are increasingly eager to elect anti-establishment candidates who threaten grander plans.
Posted originally on Jul 9, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
The catastrophic flash flood in Texas claimed over 100 lives across six counties last Friday. Torrential rain caused the Guadalupe River to surge over 20 feet in a mere 90 minutes. Despite the area having a historic record of acute flooding, the climate zealots are blaming human behavior for a natural event.
Failed presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg has attempted to politicize the disaster by penning an op-ed in his paper entitled, “The Texas Floods Were Made Worse by Climate Denialism.” Bloomberg states that the government owes the victims’ families a sincere commitment to righting their deadly wrong, by tackling the problem they’ve turned their backs on for too long: climate change.” Later adding, “The refusal to recognize that climate change carries a death penalty is sending innocent people, including far too many children, to early graves.”
The same area of Texas experienced severe flooding in 1932, 1973, 1978, 1987, 1991, and 1997. San Antonio/Central Texas experienced a catastrophic flood in 1921, with the San Antonio River flooding the following year and once more in 1998. The Blanco River experienced a significant flooding event in 2015. Unfortunately, the nearby terrain causes rapid rainfall to rush into the rivers and creeks. Clay-rich soil leads to poor filtration and high runoff during these events. The Guadalupe River Basin has been known as one of the three most dangerous places in the nation for flash flooding.
Nature abides by cycles. Yet, the leftist billionaire elite preach that humans are powerful enough to cause catastrophic weather events, despite there being absolutely no concrete evidence to support these claims. Bloomberg, one of the wealthiest men in America, is worth at least $104.7 billion and will not relinquish his seven private aircrafts or mega-yacht. Fox News reported that Bloomberg emitted 10,000 metric tons of CO2 during the 1,700 flights he took on his private aircrafts in a four-year period. Yet, he was appointed as a United Nations envoy for climate action since the globalist elite declare they have the authority to tell the people how to exist. These politicians do not actually believe the nonsense they spew.
Bloomberg has been in adherence with the World Economic Forum on the quest to eliminate the entire carbon sector by 2030. He has personal interests in forcing America onto the grid and eliminating fossil fuel usage. Climate change is one of the largest psyop measures in history that the media and politicians adamantly demand everyone accept as truth without evidence.
Posted originally on CTH on July 8, 2025 | Sundance
The Supreme Court has approved a request for intervention by the high court and blocked a lower level court ruling that stopped the Trump administration from reducing the size of government. In an 8-1 ruling [SEE HERE] with again only Ketanji Brown Jackson in dissent, the court has stayed the lower court ruling.
WASHINGTON – […] The Trump administration can move forward with plans to fire tens of thousands of workers across the federal government, the Supreme Court ruled Tuesday.
A judge in California had blocked the layoffs, finding that they would likely violate federal law. But the justices granted an emergency appeal from the administration seeking permission to enforce a Feb. 11 executive order that instructed agencies to carry out dramatic “reductions in force.”
In an apparent 8-1 ruling, the high court said it was not assessing the legality of any particular agency’s layoff plans, nor any moves taken so far to implement those plans. Litigation over the downsizing efforts is sure to continue. But for now, the justices said, the administration can enforce the executive order and a memo from the Office of Management and Budget implementing that EO.
The high court’s unsigned decision — which the majority explained in two terse paragraphs — lifts an injunction issued by U.S. District Judge Susan Illston, who had blocked 21 agencies from complying with the mass layoff orders.
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson was the sole member of the court to record a dissent. (read more)
Justice KBJ was a radical DEI implant operation conducted by the people around former President Obama. The people around President Obama knew how stupid and ideological KBJ was about constitutional law when they organized her ascension plan. Stupidity was a feature of their agenda, not a flaw. She is an embarrassment to the court and to our nation.
Posted originally on CTH on July 8, 2025 | Sundance
They are not really good at this.
According to Fox News, “two sources described the FBI’s view of the duo’s interactions as a “conspiracy,” which could open up a wide range of potential prosecutorial options.”
(VIA FOX NEWS) – Former CIA Director John Brennan and former FBI Director James Comey are under criminal investigation for potential wrongdoing related to the Trump–Russia probe, including allegedly making false statements to Congress, Justice Department sources told Fox News Digital.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe referred evidence of wrongdoing by Brennan to FBI Director Kash Patel for potential prosecution, DOJ sources told Fox News Digital.
The sources said that the referral was received and told Fox News Digital that a criminal investigation into Brennan was opened and is underway. DOJ sources declined to provide further details. It is unclear, at this point, if the investigation spans beyond his alleged false statements to Congress.
As for Comey, DOJ sources told Fox News Digital that an investigation into the former director is underway, but could not share details of what specifically is being probed.
The full scope of the criminal investigations into Brennan and Comey is unclear, but two sources described the FBI’s view of the duo’s interactions as a “conspiracy,” which could open up a wide range of potential prosecutorial options. The FBI and CIA declined to comment. (read more)
Posted originally on CTH on July 8, 2025 | Sundance
President Trump holds an almost two-hour cabinet meeting in front of the media where he and other cabinet secretaries take questions from the assembled press pool in the cabinet room. Full video below. WATCH:
Posted originally on CTH on July 8, 2025 | Sundance
I’ll put the entire cabinet meeting in another post. It is interesting that RFK Jr. was not present (?).
For this outline, let’s focus on the issue that is exploding the MAGA and anti-MAGA universe on social media right now. President Trump and Pam Bondi’s response to a question about Jeffrey Epstein and the controversial DOJ/FBI memo that now states there is no “third party” or “client list” connected to the Epstein sex trafficking.
Obviously, President Trump is not happy with attention focused on the Epstein issues. The most likely reason for the frustration expressed is simply that President Trump is unaware how much the Epstein issues are -and have been- part of the background focus within the base of his support. Here’s the segment. WATCH:
First, kudos to Marco Rubio for his stone faced and remarkably unaffected disposition within the exchange. It takes time and experience to remain stoic at this level. Exceptional control.
Second, everyone here has a reasonable BS detector – meaning we can tell when a person is not telling the truth. It is transparently obvious AG Pam Bondi is extremely uncomfortable with the Epstein issue, and her responses indicate she is not being honest or forthright. You could say, she’s lying; however, the facts of her presentation are a little more complicated.
The main issue around Bondi’s less-than-fulsome response is the motive. Is she lying because she’s just grossly incompetent about the issue, or is she lying because she is nefarious in her intent. The Occam’s Razor answer to her obvious parseltongue is a combination of both.
Former AG Pam Bondi, now Attorney General Pam Bondi is entirely over her head when it comes to highly sensitive and critically important issues. She does not have the intellectual acumen to engage on a subject that is both complex and sensitive. Bondi is an unmoored ship, floating in the direction of tides, waves and winds on any particular subject.
When a controversial issue arises, the character of the individual becomes more visible. Direct honesty is challenging to an unmoored person because they are always guesstimating, attempting to navigate and find the best position with themselves as the focus of the issue, not the issue itself.
In general terms, when a person is unmoored, the personal character trait of ‘how does this affect me’ surfaces quickly and visibly whenever a topic of discomfort surfaces. If that topic is one of high public interest, the prism of self-interest, brutally visible, then creates the realization of distrust. This outward appearance cannot be hidden and begins the person into a downward spiral that becomes even more clear when the predictable anger defensive mechanism is triggered. We see all of that in Bondi’s reaction to the question.
This aspect of Pam Bondi’s character was why CTH was out front of the nomination in saying this could be a problem. If she was willing to go along with the fabrication of a false witness in the Zimmerman case, what does that tell us about predicting her behavior as the U.S. Attorney General? That reality was the source of our concern. Now people are starting to see it surface.
Bondi is both lying from incompetence, simply her words do not pass the standard of common sense, and she is lying from a position that the DOJ/FBI claims just simply do not add up.
Unfortunately, both Bondi and Trump’s response to the Epstein issue now open a huge gate for the opposition to exploit. Elon Musk and his legions of anti-Trumpers, both new and old, will now enjoy enhanced support as their attack exploits will benefit from visible obfuscation. MAGA people will begin to distrust, that opens the door for anti-MAGA elements to engage in the issue that both Bondi and Trump obfuscate. This is not good.
Lastly, regarding President Trump. There is a membrane around the President that is very difficult to penetrate. President Trump has guards around him that do not allow information to enter against their priority interests. Trump’s handlers, specifically Bondi’s key ally, Susie Wiles, have an agenda for President Trump, and they control his domestic political worldview by controlling the information that reaches him.
Yes, President Trump has handlers, monitors, who steer the subjects they want into his field of vision. If there is an issue they do not prioritize, he simply does not see it. The same applies to all Presidents and all Executives in positions of power, the issue is not exclusive to President Trump, and we all have reference points – albeit with less consequence.
President Trump is blind to the importance of the Jeffrey Epstein story, because he is disconnected from realizing the importance of the issue to his support base. It really is that simple. To him, this looks like a distraction, because from his well managed perspective this is not an issue the guards have drawn attention to.
President Trump’s primary way of sensing the priorities of the electorate were rallies and meetings with ordinary people and MAGA supporters. However, when he won the election he is now circled by people who -at times- have a completely different agenda and priority focus than the ordinary people left outside.
I understand this dynamic from my own personal engagement with people close to President Trump, in combination with watching closely how information flows into his psyche. That said, I am relatively optimistic the Epstein issue will soon be explained to President Trump in a way that changes how he approaches it.
Unfortunately, it takes time for information to penetrate the politically protective membrane around President Trump; but when it does, he will react to it. The ammunition this issue has provided to his enemies will quickly be noted by Dan Scavino Jr., Melania Trump and Barron Trump.
Despite the ugliness, President Trump is a man of honest temperament, and he can quickly adapt. However, Pam Bondi is structurally incapable of recovering, but I suspect she will appear on Sean Hannity in an effort to rehabilitate herself.
Posted originally on CTH on July 8, 2025 | Sundance
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds a press conference after meeting with Speaker of the House Mike Johnson. As Netanyahu remarked, “President Trump’s decision to act with us …. has made a remarkable change in the Middle East.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu also emphasized the need to “change the government of Gaza” as part of the current objective within the conflict. Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized repeatedly that President Trump and himself are connected in common purpose. According to the Israeli Prime Minister, the government of the USA and the government of Israel have never been as deeply intertwined as they are at this moment in history. WATCH:
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Pay close attention to the tone and emphasis of the remarks from Prime Minister Netanyahu as well as the content. For Netanyahu there is a domestic political need to stay as close to President Trump as humanly possible, and he is showcasing that intent in every word and inflection. Netanyahu’s power is directly related to his proximity to Trump.
Benjamin Netanyahu fears distance from President Trump more than any element around him. Remember, the need for control is a reaction to fear. Netanyahu will do anything to keep close proximity.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
