Tag Archives: Hunt for Taxes

Jan 7 2018

Cross the Line & They Go Nuts


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers

RE-Posted Jan 7, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: They use to call you Mr. Yen. They also called you the manipulator of the world. Then it was the legend. Now they will call you Mr. Dow.

All the best

SJ

REPLY: Well, they always have to find someone to blame. Cross the line and try to explore new methodologies and they just go nuts. I can understand Mr. Yen, and I get the crazy allegation by the government that I manipulate the world economy, but the “legend” I really remain clueless as to what that one is about. As to Mr. Dow – well I suppose that’s next in the queue.

They prefer to always claim I have too much influence rather than look at what I am saying and the methodology. It is just human nature to desperately try to keep everything unchanged. Labelling someone is a form of downgrading them.

Jan 6 2018

Intellectual Froglegs – New Year Addition


The long awaited 2018 New Year awards show by Joe Dan Gorman and the Intellectual Froglegs media empire is finally out:

Visit Website HERE

Jan 6 2018

BitCoin Reality Check?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency

RE-Posted Jan 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
Jan 6 2018

The Technology Advance in War will Increase Civilian Casualties


Armstrong Economics Blog/War

Re-Posted Jan 6, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty. Hi.

In your article, you stated that when the unemployment goes up, they take us to war to cut down the population. True but now its different.

WW2 was a big historical change in who gets killed. WW1 and previous wars typically it was the soldiers who die. WW1 only saw about 5% > fewer civilians die. Once we got to WW2 we saw 80% of the deaths were civilians. Ever since then, mostly civilians die in wars now.

It was the technology shift that has brought about this.

So now, Kim and Trump push some buttons and millions of civilians die.

OK. Been cold up here. Getting down to -13° this weekend. And were on the warm side of the lake Lol.

N

REPLY: You are correct. The impact of war is much different today. The civilian casualties will be much greater than in previous wars. That’s technology for you. Keep warm. It is even snowing as far south as Tallahassee. This is one forecast I wish would be wrong.

Jan 5 2018

At What Point do we reach Euphoria in the Equity Markets?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts

Re-Posted Jan 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION:

Marty,

John Templeton has said “Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” “If you want to have a better performance than the crowd, you must do things differently from the crowd.”

My question is…….. at what point do we reach euphoria in the equity markets?

ANSWER: Our Energy Models are designed to ascertain that dimension of a market. Naturally, everyone responds to whatever the last event is in recent memory. Therefore, the 2007-2009 Crash lives on in their experience so that means they will be skeptical of new highs. We have witnessed that with analysts constantly calling for every new high would be the last. They keep trying to forecast the last event because they missed that one as well.

The only way to approach this is from a quantitative viewpoint. Human opinion will inevitably be wrong no matter who it is. How the market responds to our Energy Models is critical for long-term forecasting. Look at the chart for 1929. Here you see that there is a huge spike in energy which peaked in February 1929. The market rallied to new highs but note that the Energy Models we not making new highs. This peak BEFORE the major high confirmed a very serious undermining of the market structure warning that this type of high was a Bubble and therefore would not be exceeded for decades.

Now compare this to the Energy Models for the 2007 high. We do not have aBUBBLE formation at all and the high came on the reaction high following the major high for the move. This confirmed this was by no means a BUBBLE and in fact new record highs would be make once again.

Let’s turn to the DOT.COM BUBBLE. The first thing you will notice is that the Energy was clearly in a BUBBLE formation. The slight difference here is that the Energy Model peaked the week after the high rather than before. This confirmed that it was not going to be a 1929 type event and the new record highs would be made which indeed unfolded in April 2015 which was 61 quarters intraday and 66 quarters to close above the 2000 high on a quarterly basis.

Here is gold for the 1980 BUBBLE. Once again you see the extreme BUBBLE formation and here the peak took place with the peak in gold. So while we are not looking at the same type of formation with the peak unfolding in advance of the high as in 1929, this reflected that gold would eventually make new record highs within a mid-term perspective. Unquestionable, it took 19 years for gold to decline before the major low was established. Gold finally exceeded the 1980 high during the crisis of 2008.
Now, let us look at the current situation. Again we do not have a major BUBBLE formation. What we do have is a market that is still expanding and in fact, the high on our Energy Models on the weekly level took place last week. This implies we would still press higher into January and that has been out target once you exceeded the November high.
We are by no means in a 1929 BUBBLE type of formation. Here is the view of the 1987 Crash. Like Gold, the peak came 1 week following the high. Yet we see escalating advances in Energy leading into the 1987 high. So far, we lack that type of pattern warning that the real advance in our Energy Models is yet to come.
Therefore, the answer to your question is rather simple. It is always a matter of TIME rather than price. As markets rally, human interpretation of price will always be wrong. NOBODY is going to call this final high from a human perspective and anyone who claims that will be a fraud. It is not a matter of opinion for we can personally only forecast what we think is possible, to begin with.
Jan 5 2018

Is BREXIT in Trouble? Can Britain Survive Past 2042-2044?


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Jan 5, 2018 by Martin Armstrong


The REMAIN crowd is doing everything possible to surrender the sovereignty, dignity, and future of Britain. The left is taking hold in Britain calling anyone who wants to leave the EU is now openly called a “racist” and they are bashing anyone who even appears to be nationalist.

While the British pound closed 2017 at 13501, it finished the year in a long-term bearish position. We now have politicians rebellion and saying that the question was too complicated for the average person to understand and so the referendum should be put aside. This is keeping in line with the anti-Democratic policy adopted in the EU to deny the people the right to vote on the European Project – the surrender of all sovereignty to Brussels.

Unfortunately, our model has not indicated any change in the long-term trend. The Euro still closed in a bullish position relative to the cross with the pound sterling. Support lies at 88120 for 2018 on Euro/Sterling. We elected a Yearly Bullish Reversal back for the close of 2016 and that has dominated the trend as 2017 closed high with an inside trading year.

The posture, overall, shows that this remains in a questionable position. The early election called by PM May was a disaster and has opened the door for the REMAIN crowd to overthrow the vote by painting anyone for BREXIT as a racist and we now hear the politicians saying that Parliament should decide and not the people. If they succeed in this movement, we seem to be on schedule for the complete collapse of Britain come 2044 where it too will split up into regions as it had begun.

 

During the reign of Eadgar (959-975 AD), England was united under one ruler. It was Eadgar who instituted a uniform coinage throughout the land. Eadgar set the pattern for the ‘reformed’ coinage of the later Anglo-Saxon and Norman period and standardized the use of the king’s portrait as in old Roman tradition.

Here too, we are reaching 21 cycles of the ECM 51.6-years from the reign of Eadgar, which also confirms independently 2042-2044 the likelihood of England breaking apart back toward the regions that were united by Eadgar will be the fate of Britain.

Jan 4 2018

Super-MAGAnomic-Winning: U.S. Added 250,000 Private Sector Jobs in December – DOW Closes Above 25k…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 4, 2018 by

This jobs report bolsters confidence in the MAGAnomic prediction shared two years ago. So long as current economic trends continue, the explosion in private sector wage rates, middle-class wages, will begin around Q2 of this year (April – June). Once the eight year Obama-labor-lag is fully absorbed, a tighter job market will put upward pressure on real wages.

The Main Street economic engine, the “real economy”, is now positioned to overtake the Wall Street engine, the “paper economy”. Meaning actual profits and losses, real economic GDP growth, will drive company earnings and valuations in 2018.

There is an economic policy synergy now taking place.  The tax package that was passed shows how President Trump’s economic policy drivers (Ross, Cohen, Mnuchin) have structured Main Street businesses to willingly afford the wage rate increases.

The MAGAnomic dynamic is two-fold. The tax rates for the middle-class have dropped; simultaneous to this tax change increasing take home pay, the business sectors will have room to drive actual hourly wage rates higher. Lower rates and higher wages has a compounding impact on the amount of money in workers paychecks/pockets. See how that works?

[CNBC] The total brought 2017’s private payroll growth as gauged by ADP and Moody’s to 2.54 million, an average of 212,000 a month.

Job growth was broad based, as professional and business services led the way with 72,000 new positions. The education and health services sector was next at 50,000 and trade, transportation and utilities contributed 45,000. Wall Street-related payrolls grew by 19,000.

[…] By size, businesses with between 50 and 499 employees added 100,000 jobs while small firms hired 94,000 and large companies contributed 56,000 to the total.

“The job market ended the year strongly,” Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi said in a statement. “Robust Christmas sales prompted retailers and delivery services to add to their payrolls. The tight labor market will get even tighter, raising the specter that it will overheat.”

Overall, service-related companies were responsible for the balance of jobs, with 222,000 new hires. Goods-producing industries added the rest, with construction growing by 16,000 and manufacturing by 9,000.

The private payrolls numbers come a day ahead of the government’s closely watched nonfarm payrolls report. (read more)

The bottom line is how the MAGAnomic policy builds upon itself.  As middle-class workers have more disposable income they buy stuff.  Consumer spending drives GDP growth.

Higher middle-class wages mean U.S. consumers are no longer dependent on cheap foreign manufactured products.  This boosts the investment outlook for U.S. manufacturing.  The business cost dynamic shifts from the perspective of the U.S. as a service economy and the outlook becomes a balanced production economy.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic policy is breaking the historic cycle of low wages and cheap import product dependency.

Exactly as planned.

NOW, PLEASE WATCH:

.

See how that works?

.

Jan 4 2018

The 2017 Closing US$ – Gold – Dow


Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones

Re-Posted Jan 4, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Dow failed to OPEN above the 2017 Intraday high so we are not yet ready for prime time. This is still a 0ff-Broadway play, but we are getting closer. The dollar still finished neutral so it too is not yet ready for its move higher. Gold closed in a positive position for the end of 2017 confirming the posture in the dollar.

We will review all the world markets for 2018 in the coming Outlook Report for 2018.

Jan 4 2018

Housing Begins to Crash – Australia – New Zealand – London


Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate

Re-Posted Jan 4, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Property values are starting to crash hard in Sydney Australia, New Zealand, and London. Politicians are simply idiots. They all targeted foreigners buying property as the leading cause for the rise in housing prices. What they failed to grasp is that people spend more money when they THINK they have equity in their home. Whenever housing starts to decline, so does consumer spending and guess what – you get the economi9c downturn. Dah!

Jan 3 2018

Trump -v- Bannon…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 3, 2018 by

Look, two things: First, despite the temptation, CTH is not going to say “we toldya so“; it’s irrelevant, combative and unnecessary. Second, I’m not going to go through the repository of all the times there have been harsh words upon this site criticizing CTH previous warnings about this day; again, irrelevant, combative and unnecessary.

CTH views our place, our responsibility for tone and presentation amid the ongoing struggle against the larger political left, as a foxhole discussion during consequential combat. What is the most valuable spirit within that foxhole?

MAGA cannot win without each other. MAGA cannot win without a positive outlook. MAGA cannot win, without a confidence in ourselves and our ability, and MAGA does not deserve to win if the end result of that winning is not ultimately our ability to provide the benefit of winning to the entire country, including the ‘other side’.

Understanding the bigger picture, CTH does not drive purpose with hot anger; energy is too valuable. CTH drives purpose with cold resolve, deliberate. As such, the larger CTH perspective is not disappointment in Steve Bannon, because CTH fully researched, understood and anticipated these moments with Steve Bannon – hence the prior warnings. However, CTH also accepts we cannot force anyone to understand the larger reasons for those warnings.

The goal of walking to discover truth is not to convince. If convincing is the goal, the amount of energy expended is exhausting. The truth of situations, circumstances and ultimately motives, exists regardless of our opinions of it. It just is. Our goal is to simply enjoy the complex conversation as we discover the location.  Deep, friendly, walking.

An honorable man does not personally attack the family of a man he supports. Period.

Regardless of all other things, what a person does speaks more loudly than what a person says. Character is not what you do when needed; character is who you are when no-one is paying attention.

Previous emotionally-driven attacks on Jared Kushner, Ivanka Trump, HR McMaster and Rex Tillerson showed the substance of Mr. Bannon’s character.

President Trump is the MAGA wave; Steve Bannon -and company- was/are surfers. Ultimately that’s the reason why Robert Mercer, and others, backed away from Bannon.

According to the controversial discussion between Steve Bannon and author Michael Wolff (for a recent book) as specifically quoted by Wolff:

“The three senior guys in the campaign thought it was a good idea to meet with a foreign government inside Trump Tower in the conference room on the 25th floor — with no lawyers. They didn’t have any lawyers. Even if you thought that this was not treasonous, or unpatriotic, or bad s***, and I happen to think it’s all of that, you should have called the FBI immediately.”

This is a quote from Steve Bannon that has driven much of the controversy. The ongoing criticism of Jared Kushner and Donald Trump Jr also sounds just like Steve Bannon. Mr. Bannon has an over-inflated perspective of his own importance. Accepting THAT reality was essentially the basis for our prior warnings.

A righteously outraged President Trump responds accordingly:

Steve Bannon has nothing to do with me or my Presidency. When he was fired, he not only lost his job, he lost his mind. Steve was a staffer who worked for me after I had already won the nomination by defeating seventeen candidates, often described as the most talented field ever assembled in the Republican party.

Now that he is on his own, Steve is learning that winning isn’t as easy as I make it look. Steve had very little to do with our historic victory, which was delivered by the forgotten men and women of this country. Yet Steve had everything to do with the loss of a Senate seat in Alabama held for more than thirty years by Republicans. Steve doesn’t represent my base he’s only in it for himself.

Steve pretends to be at war with the media, which he calls the opposition party, yet he spent his time at the White House leaking false information to the media to make himself seem far more important than he was. It is the only thing he does well. Steve was rarely in a one-on-one meeting with me and only pretends to have had influence to fool a few people with no access and no clue, whom he helped write phony books.

We have many great Republican members of Congress and candidates who are very supportive of the Make America Great Again agenda. Like me, they love the United States of America and are helping to finally take our country back and build it up, rather than simply seeking to burn it all down.

~ President Donald J Trump

Again, Wolfmoon’s explainer more true today than it was a year ago:

“Well, I don’t really have to do any holding together, now that I figured out what Trump is up to. He is shaking things out, but counting on Trump gravity to pull things back together as he moves along.

He is moving “forward” at speeds Obama could not even dream of.

You and I will be anti-Trump trolls one day and MAGA heroes the next. Get used to it. Trump speed is the new normal. Some will call it flip-flopping, but that’s not what it is. Trump is dodging and weaving through reality faster than the reality can react to disrupt his plans.

I was explaining this to my wife. This is a roller-coaster now. Trump is no longer waiting for people to keep up. He is taking his bewildering art-of-the-deal campaign schtick into geopolitics, and for a lot of people who can’t keep up or hold on, it will be a rough ride.

Trump is no longer playing only with evil and cunning players who are still predictable, easily beatable dopes, like Hillary. He is playing against killers, with his own team of killers, and all the while he has scheming creeps like Hillary, BGI, SPLC, and the neocons gunning for him. Snake Ryan ready to bite when nobody is looking. “Warhead” McCain screaming for Russian blood. Psycho Kim and Samoa Obama plotting some kind of intrigue to take him down. And THOSE are the lightweights.

This is the majors now. Trump has to outwit world-class adversaries and “frenemies” by defining the deals that they will agree to. One minute they will think Trump is their friend – the next minute, a cunning, bitter foe.

And he has to do this with evil cheerleaders like Warhead, Linderace, Dipsy Dowd, Maggie Haterman, and Fake Yapper trashing him or praising him alternately, no matter which way he goes. They can’t keep up, either.

Neither can many around him. I think that half of the problem with advisers crashing into each other is they don’t realize what Trump is doing.

And people will trash you, and they will trash me. Get used to it. I’ve already caught plenty of people mocking me. Well, just wait a week in Trump time. Look stupid and conned by Trump one minute, and you look like a sage three days later.

Trump will not find perfect solutions. He will find OPTIMAL solutions. We cannot ask for more. Trump has stood by and watched Perfect murder Good for 8 years – maybe longer. He’s not gonna do it. He’s going to deliver the best outcome possible, and he’s not waiting for us to feel relaxed about it.

Best presidency ever! Just hang on. More winning is coming, but a lot of people are going to scream that it’s all over at EVERY turn.

The best way through this is to define viewpoints, not people, because people will shift as they change position and velocity in Trump gravity. Bash the neocon, warmonger, and dopey globalist positions – not the people who are going to hold them one moment and come loose from them later.

Trump is Jupiter moving through the asteroid belt. He is going to pull people into his orbit. A few will get slung off into space, but most will come along for the ride of their lives.

I am ON the Trump Train for good, even if I scream that I want off and can’t take it.

In the end, I only want to scream “TOO MUCH WINNING!!!” (link)