Tag Archives: new world order

Jan 14 2018

Iran Economic Decline = Rise in Protests


Armstrong Economics Blog/Middle East

Re-Posted Jan 14, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; The economy is in a poor state at best because the government just does not know how to manage the state and this proxy war with Saudi Arabia is draining everything here in Iran. What is your view on the economy going forward?

REPLY: The lifting of economic sanctions under the 2015 nuclear deal with the USA did not result in any improvement in the Iranian economy. Iran’s economy has simply remained stagnant at best for we are in an overall economic contraction now into 2020. Inflation is running above 10% in Iran while many basic food items like eggs are up over 40%. Still, some 3 million people remain unemployed. The economic conditions since the Islamic Revolution have simply left about 35% of Iranians living below the official poverty line.

The protests in Iran are being instigated by economics as they are in Europe. The young Iranians, in general, are growing increasingly frustrated by corruption in government combined with economic mismanagement. Protests and instability are likely to continue over the next few years because of the government, like most others, is simply interested in retaining power – not reform.

Jan 13 2018

Former Uranium Transportation Company President Indicted on 11 Counts Related to Foreign Bribery, Fraud and Money Laundering Scheme


RE-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 12, 2018 by

U.S. authorities believe from at least 2009 to October 2014 Mark Lambert (pictured below left) and other company executives, including Daren Condrey, conspired to bribe Vadim Mikerin, an official at the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation subsidiary (TENEX), in order to secure contracts for transporting nuclear fuel.

Daren Condrey plead guilty in June 2015 to conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and wire fraud. Condrey likely flipped on his former partner, Mark Lambert.  [Mr. Condrey is awaiting sentencing, according to the Justice Department.]

(U.S. Dept. of Justice) […] Mark Lambert, 54, of Mount Airy, Maryland, was charged in an 11-count indictment with one count of conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and to commit wire fraud, seven counts of violating the FCPA, two counts of wire fraud and one count of international promotion money laundering. 

The charges stem from an alleged scheme to bribe Vadim Mikerin, a Russian official at JSC Techsnabexport (TENEX), a subsidiary of Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation and the sole supplier and exporter of Russian Federation uranium and uranium enrichment services to nuclear power companies worldwide, in order to secure contracts with TENEX.

The case against Lambert is assigned to U.S. District Court Judge Theodore D. Chuang of the District of Maryland.

According to the indictment, beginning at least as early as 2009 and continuing until October 2014, Lambert conspired with others at “Transportation Corporation A” to make corrupt and fraudulent bribery and kickback payments to offshore bank accounts associated with shell companies, at the direction of, and for the benefit of, a Russian official, Vadim Mikerin, in order to secure improper business advantages and obtain and retain business with TENEX.

In order to effectuate and conceal the corrupt and fraudulent bribe payments, Lambert and others allegedly caused fake invoices to be prepared, purportedly from TENEX to Transportation Corporation A, that described services that were never provided, and then Lambert and others caused Transportation Corporation A to wire the corrupt payments for those purported services to shell companies in Latvia, Cyprus and Switzerland.

Lambert and others also allegedly used code words like “lucky figures,” “LF,” “lucky numbers,” and “cake” to describe the payments in emails to the Russian official at his personal email account.  The indictment also alleges that Lambert and others caused Transportation Corporation A to over-bill TENEX by building the cost of the corrupt payments into their invoices, and TENEX thus overpaid for Transportation Corporation A’s services.   (read more)

Jan 13 2018

Are Police Acting Like Thugs Because Judges Refuse to Defend the Constitution?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Police

Re-Posted Jan 13, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Teacher Deyshia Hargrave was questioning the school board how they can vote to give the superintendent a raise when school employees have not gotten a raise in years. A policeman from the parish Marshal’s Office told her to leave the room. He shut down her freedom of speech to even ask a question in a respectful manner.  He ordered her to step outside, pushed her to the ground, and then arrested her dragging her out in handcuffs.

The question this presents is why are police officer lacking any training about human and constitutional rights. Far too many seem they believe they are supreme in their authority and need not answer to anyone. This evolves because judges are not defending the constitution as a whole. There are no checks and balances anymore. What happened to “We the People” in this modern day?

Categories: Police
Jan 13 2018

Judge Throws Out Gov’t Case Against Bundy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law

RE-Posted Jan 13, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The pressure has to be so great in this land to ever obtain any justice. In the case of the rancher, Bundy, the government has been on a crusade to imprison him if not outright murder him to uphold their supreme authority to ignore the Constitution.

A U.S. Federal District Judge Gloria Navarro dismissed all charges against Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy, his two sons and another man on Monday after accusing prosecutors of willfully withholding evidence from Bundy’s lawyers. Judge Navarro cited “flagrant prosecutorial misconduct” in her decision to dismiss all charges against the Nevada rancher and three others. She wrote: “The court finds that the universal sense of justice has been violated.”

This is what is called a Brady Violation. Rarely will any federal judge actually dismiss a criminal complaint of the government on a Brady Violation – perhaps one in a million, if that. They have also crafted “harmless error” analysis to basically say you would have been convicted anyhow so rights do not matter.

Brady v. Maryland, 373 U.S. 83 (1963) was a landmark decision by the United States Supreme Court which established that the prosecution must turn over all evidence that might exonerate the defendant (exculpatory evidence) to the defense. The prosecution failed to do so for Brady and he was convicted. Brady challenged his conviction, arguing it had been contrary to the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. Prosecutors hate to ever turnover anything that will defeat them in court. In United States v. Bagley, 473 U.S. 667 (1985), the Supreme Court effectively overrule Brady by applying Harmless Error analysis meaning you have the burden to prove now that the evidence withheld WOULD HAVE changed the verdict. And who does the analysis? A judge of course and never the people.

In order for the Bundy charges to be thrown out, there must have been a lot of posturing behind the curtain. The government can always appeal and the likelihood of an appellate court overrule the district court is 100%. So what took place was to a large extent political. They wanted to get this off the table. Bunday spent 700 days in prison.

Jan 12 2018

TIME is more than Money – It is EVERYTHING


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Jan 12, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

TIME is more than just money; it’s absolutely everything and then some! Personal opinion just utterly fails because we are all human. Markets routinely do what the majority never expects. That is their function. They mutate like a virus always changing its genetic code to defeat medicine, or in this case, traders. Back on November 30th, 2017, I explained on the private blog: “We must respect that exceeding the November high now in December on a sustained basis, points to a January high. If we pull back, then January will be a low and then watch out for a sharp rally into March.”

TIME is the very fabric of the universe and probably the most misunderstood element of all. In physics, the relativity of simultaneity is the concept that baffles many. The question becomes, do two distant events actually take place simultaneously? Therefore, the question whether two spatially separated events occur at the same TIME is recognized to be far from absolute. It is “relative” depending on the observer’s reference frame. This becomes incredibly important in terms of forecasting the world markets.

To grasp what our model is really doing one must look at TIME and EVENTS more in the perspective of turning points – not specific events. Once you understand we are forecasting turning points on the TIME horizon, not specific events, you will begin to make a leap forward into a new world of understanding TIME.

Specific events on the horizon become easy for forecast based upon the trend in motion relative to TIME. When trends reach that events horizon in time, then a specific high or low is easily ascertained. Right now, we are in the throes of a major breakout and a characteristic of Vertical Markets has been what we call the Cycle Inversion process. Normally, turning points unfold in opposite pairs. So a November high would traditionally be followed by a January low. Merely exceeding the November high on a closing basis during December identified the continued rally into the next target being January 2018 warning we were (1) dealing with a Cycle Inversion, and (2) a Vertical Market that is going to be very difficult to trade for most people.

It is paramount that we understand how Vertical Markets function.

Jan 12 2018

In Massachusetts – they Arrest You for failure to Renew a Dog License


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Jan 12, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Believe it or not, the town of Westminster in Massachusetts arrests people for failing to renew a dog license. The municipality issued an arrest warrant for Brian Vincent for not renewing his dog license. The town officials do not deny using the criminal procedure to collect fees. They claim that all proper procedures were followed when handling the issue of failing to renew a dog license. The police justify arresting citizens who fail to renew a pet license stating that “many years ago rabies was an issue and people in the state and the community wanted to make sure animals are registered” according to the Sentinel & Enterprise News. Once they pass something “many years ago” why give up that revenue even when the former justification vanishes.

The more governments become abusive all to get their hands on other people’s money, our most precious right, LIBERTY, is revoked for anything they can dream of. When government becomes abusive and takes the liberty of people for fines, no less non-violent offenses, it loses its ultimate authority to government historically. It simply becomes a waiting game to see how far they go which will spark the uprising as has always taken place throughout record history. The American Revolution was – No Taxation Without Representation. We no longer have a representative government or they would never act in such a manner.

Jan 12 2018

COUNTERPARTY RISK


Armstrong Economics Blog/Banking Crisis

Re-Posted Jan 12, 2018 by Martin Armstrong


COUNTERPARTY RISK

QUESTION:  In regard to counterparty risk when purchasing exchange traded funds or notes: With European banks being under capitalised due to the excessive risk undertaken due to the EU regulations regarding bailouts, how can we measure the threat of each counterparty which has backed each ETF. Would it be safer to consider only ETFs with US counterparties, or is just another risk we have to take on board. Do we avoid these types of instruments in favour of choice companies.

JB

ANSWER: If you wish to use ETF’s, as they are extremely cheap and liquid, the large US names such as Vanguard, State Street etc. are available. We often write to hold the physical share certificate as the same as holding tangible assets but realize it is very difficult to take delivery.

The flow of capital to the US will obviously support US names at the expense of European. However, because of the size of the issue and Europe being the second largest economy on the planet, no-region will be without risk. CDS for the USA traded from 6 cents to 52 cents during the financial crisis, not because of potential default, simply because it was re-priced against every other sovereign! Simply holding US Dollars or considering a basket of currencies is another way of limiting risk from your core currency.
Please be aware that Armstrong Economics cannot provide personal guidance and all investment decisions should be undertaken using of an independent financial advisor.
Jan 11 2018

British Prosecutors Charging Hate Crimes for just saying “All right Geezer.”


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Jan 11, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The British government is also going completely nuts with criminal charges for nonsense. British prosecutors charged a woman for calling a man a “pussy”. Then there is the case of a businessman who was charged with a hate crime for saying to a transgender man presenting himself as a woman  – “all right geezer.” He alleged he simply said that to him/her when they passed in the street. Vernon Mussington was found guilty but appealed and finally had his conviction overturned.

When the governments collapse, we simply MUST take away the power to prosecute from government completely. Part of the cycle that signals the decline and fall is in motion, is none other than the abuse of the power to prosecute. Edward Gibbon wrote in the Decline & Fall of the Roman Empire:

“[A] distinction of every kind soon became criminal. The possession of wealth stimulated the diligence of the informers; rigid virtue implied a tacit censure of the irregularities of Commodus; important services implied a dangerous superiority of merit; and the friendship of the father always insured the aversion of the son. Suspicion was equivalent to proof; trial to condemnation. The execution of a considerable senator was attended with the death of all who might lament or revenge his fate; and when Commodus had once tasted human blood, he became incapable of pity or remorse”

(Book 1, Chapter 4).

Jan 10 2018

Why Governments are Like an Ameba


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Jan 10, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You may be called the legend because of your forecasts on so many levels, but it might also be because you have met with more governments than probably any economist or analyst. My question is simple. From your experience, do you believe you can prevent the economic carnage that is becoming so obvious to everyone except those in government?

SK

ANSWER: The idealistic belief in intelligence and goodness embedded within human beings is increasingly confronted with the harsh experiences of reality. We all indeed act in our own self-interest or we would take no action (Smith’s Invisible Hand). Even an ameba, which lacks consciousness as we define it being self-aware, still responds to its surrounding and engulfs its prey to survive. It responds due to its hardwired nature. Unfortunately, humans also possess at that inner level this same survival instinct that is hardwired. This makes it increasingly unlikely that willingness to change gains sufficient strength in time for the abyss to be reached. Hence, we must crash and burn.

Because the government will respond in the same manner as an ameba, there is no hope that they will spontaneously look in the mirror and reach an OMG moment of realizing that they are causing the demise of our society. Consequently, they will consume our liberty until they push it to the point that society will then act only in its self-interest to survive. Historically, all governments collapse once they have consumed rights, liberty, and privileges in their desire to maintain control and in the end, die by their own greed for power. They lack any consciousness of what they are doing precisely as an ameba. There is no reasoning for there is no one single mind to reason with.

Therefore, neither I nor anyone else, possess the power to prevent the cycle from unfolding. The very best I can hope for is perhaps to influence the reconstruction

Jan 9 2018

World Debt Burden has Exceeded $230 Trillion


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis

Re-Posted Jan 9, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I find it interesting how you have pointed out that when it comes to public debt, the USA is actually far better than Europe or many in Asia. You also forecast that debt would begin to rise sharply from mid-2017 going into 2021. Do you have any figures to support that forecast?

NW

ANSWER: Yes of course!. The volume of global debt is rising significantly. According to the Institute of International Finance, total liabilities in the third quarter of 2017 surpassed $230 trillion. This is an increase of 16 trillion compared to the end of 2016. As the interest rates continue to rise, the debt servicing costs are simply going to explode. As a whole, Europe is over 100% of debt to GDP on average compared to the USA at about 73%. Government debt has exceeded $60 trillion.

This entire system is coming undone. The debt servicing is exploding as rates begin to rise. The Sovereign Debt Crisis is very much alive and wel