Analysts Begin Quantifying “Some Pain for Americans” as Monetary Policy is Positioned to Support Green New Deal Energy Transition


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 29, 2022 | Sundance

The financial pundits are slowly starting to drop the pretending and discuss the bigger economic picture. However, as they tread very carefully, they are being very cautious about admitting too much.

A Reuters discussion of the comments by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, starts to dip the media toe in the painful pool; yet they will not admit the Biden energy program is the source of the inflation Powell is targeting with his policy moves to shrink energy demand. Thus, the pretending continues.

If you take the written words and extract the parseltongue, you can see a more fulsome picture of what is being outlined.

JACKSON HOLE, Wyo., Aug 29 (Reuters) – The message from the world’s top finance chiefs is loud and clear: rampant inflation is here to stay and taming it will take an extraordinary effort, most likely a recession with job losses and shockwaves through emerging markets.

That price is still worth paying, however. Central banks spent decades building their credibility on inflation fighting skills and losing this battle could shake the foundations of modern monetary policy.

In other words, the U.S. economy is based on core U.S. energy systems and moving that construct to alternative energy, windmills, electric vehicles and solar panels; along with getting Americans to accept a lowered standard of living; is an “extraordinary effort.”

Yes, they are ‘all-in’ and if they lose “this battle,” the core foundations of modern monetary policy will “shake” along with the economic collapse that follows. The economic energy “transition” is the Biden policy, the federal reserve is trying to support that policy by lowering economic demand.

Yes, they also now admit that people will lose their jobs, their livelihoods and the foundation of their economic stability in the process.

[…] “Regaining and preserving trust requires us to bring inflation back to target quickly,” European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel said. “The longer inflation stays high, the greater the risk that the public will lose confidence in our determination and ability to preserve purchasing power.”

Banks should also keep going even if growth suffers and people start to lose their jobs. “Even if we enter a recession, we have basically little choice but to continue our policy path,” Schnabel said. “If there were a deanchoring of inflation expectations, the effect on the economy would be even worse.”

[Energy inflation, the root of all supply side inflation] “is near double-digit territory in many of the world’s biggest economies, a level not seen in close to a half century.”

[…] Deglobalisation, the realignment of alliances due to Russia’s war, demographic changes and more expensive production in emerging markets could all make supply constraints more permanent. (read more)

Yes, the “realignment global of alliances,” as an outcome of the western world policy to fracture global markets based on energy use.  Notice they are now starting to admit what we have discussed here for over a year?

“The global economy seems to be on the cusp of a historic change as many of the aggregate supply tailwinds that have kept a lid on inflation look set to turn into headwinds,” Agustín Carstens, the head of the Bank of International Settlements, said.

“If so, the recent pickup in inflationary pressures may prove to be more persistent,” said Carstens, who heads a group often called the central bank of the world’s central banks.

All this points to rapid interest rates hikes, led by the Fed with the ECB now trying to catch up, and elevated rates for years to come. (read more)

Indeed, we are only now on the front side “cusp” of the transition which will force the continued lowering of economic activity within the aligned nations for more than a generation or two.   All economic activity, essentially all human activity, will have to be stalled and reduced until the levels of sustainable energy production can catch up to the levels of energy needed for the now smaller economy.

With current estimations of 50+ years before sustainable energy can generate 25 to 50 percent of the need, this is going to take a long time, and the bankers & financial control agents are going to have to simultaneously make the economies of the allied nations much smaller.

The planned energy oven is small, the size of the economic pizza must be shrunk in order to fit within it.

My last and important point is this…. The multinational corporations, banks and global finance folks, do not enter into these situations without a carefully planned way to retain their own wealth.  The job of a “hedge fund manager” is described in the title, to find a “hedge” against risk to continue increasing wealth.

The billionaire elites that have assembled their wealth on the old economic system will not trust anything to chance as this global cleaving of the world economy takes place. Being reactionary is not how they operate.  These groups pre-stage their wealth and assets outside the zone of collateral damage. They are proactive, not reactive to these global financial events.

With the foundation of the western economic system now being changed, look carefully at the political landscape to see what Wall Street risk mitigation maneuvers are taking place. My very strong hunch on this wealth preservation facet leads me back to domestic politics, and suddenly things make sense. I’m not wrong. I am open to being wrong, but I’m not wrong.

The Real IRS Hunt


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence Re-Posted Aug 28, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There is NOTHING that the politicians EVER say that is the truth. Hiring 87,000 new IRS agents is NOT to go after billionaires as they claim. There are ONLY 614 billionaires in the United States. Clearly, you do not need 87,000 new agents to hunt down billionaires – they are coming after you!

There is no loose change in taxes the higher you go up in income. You then need professionals to handle the taxes and they cross every “t” and dot all the “i”s. They are targeting anyone with an LLC and will challenge all expenses. Don’t forget, if you go to dinner with a client, you can only write off 50% of the expense. Of course with COVID, we have a whole new crisis in taxes. The commuting costs evaporated working from home. What about writing off a portion of the home now if you no longer go to the office? Suddenly, COVID really complicated things over the past two years. Even if your house burns down, the IRS denies a tax deduction for the loss. Protesters against the IRS are just coincidently targeted for audits – purely coincidental. Obama used the IRS to target the Tea Party. The DOJ waited two years and then quietly dismissed any criminal charges against IRS agents. This is what we will expect for now they will target also protesters in climate change.

They do not need 87,000 new agents, armed to the teeth, to hunt down just 614 billionaires. It made good press, the same as when they introduced the income tax back in 1913 as SWORE on the soul of the dead mother and all their relatives, it would not apply to the rich. Small business and climate protesters will be the people targeted by the IRS.

Remember the cops raided the wrong house, killed the guy, and then they claimed he was an UNDOCUMENTED alien who had no Constitutional Rights, and thus it was OK to kill him. How about the wrong house raid where they kill the man and his dog but then kill a cop responding to a break-in – remember that one? There are so many where the cops storm the wrong house, the resident this it’s a break-in and defends himself only to be shot dead. I’m sure we will all sleep well knowing 87,000 IRS agents, armed to the teeth, are being trained to storm houses and released on society after 3 months worth of training.

In Canada, Trudeau is arming climate change police to do the same thing. Let’s face the facts. We the people are now the enemy – not Putin! This is the consequence of Marxism. We are nothing more than economic slaves.

The Inflation Reduction Act – A Change We Don’t Believe In


Armstrong Economics Blog/Inflation Re-Posted Aug 26, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

President Biden agreed to waste billions on the Democrat-supported Inflation Reduction Act. According to a survey of 1,500 Americans as presented by the Epoch Times, neither Democratic nor Republican citizens believe this expensive act will combat rising prices.

Respondents were asked if they believed that the bulk of the package, the $369 billion set aside for climate change initiatives, would reduce inflation. Only 13% said they believed fighting climate change would combat inflation, while 26% admitted they had no clue. Yet, 38% replied by saying it will increase inflation, and an additional 22% think it will have no impact.

Only 8% of Republicans polled agreed with the act (no voting Republican lawmakers supported the measure), while 23% of Democrats were in favor. Around 68% of Republicans warned that the bill would increase inflation; 40% of Independents agreed, as did 17% of Democrats.

This leads one to believe that the measure would never have passed if the taxpayers had the opportunity to vote on how their money was spent. The Congressional Budget Office admitted that the measure would have a negligible effect on inflation. Currently, American households are paying an additional $717 per month due to inflation. This act will only cause Americans to be treated as criminals by the growing and armed IRS, which is training to use lethal force against civilians. Audits will soar, small and medium businesses will suffer, and no one besides those supporting the Green agenda will benefit from the Inflation [Expansion] Act.

The Solution


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics Re-Posted Aug 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Coinbase Crackdown


Armstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Aug 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Comment: I use Coinbase to hold some crypto. They sent me an email saying that my account that I had for years would be limited to withdrawals only if I do not give them updated government ID and download the latest version of the application. I use this on my PC and do not have the application. I worry they’ll take what is left of my failing cryptos. Luckily I only put “play money” into these holdings but I imagine others will experience losses and frozen accounts in the near future. The deadline they gave me was October – not sure if that is for all. I messaged out to Coinbase for help updating my account but cannot fully verify it after many tries.

Reply: Government hates cryptocurrency. They have always been concerned about their ability to squeeze out every last penny in taxes from crypto. I am not surprised that Coinbase is emailing users for additional documentation days after the Inflation Reduction Act was passed. With nearly 88,000 new IRS agents, there will certainly be teams of hundreds or thousands of accountants who will analyze all crypto holdings.

The initial idea behind the creation of crypto has been lost. I warned in March on our private blog on Socrates that cryptocurrencies may be suspended altogether one day. Biden could sign an Executive Order to regulate cryptos because countries like Russia can use it to circumvent sanctions. Not only is Biden authorizing the regulation of digital currencies, but he is also instructing to move forward with a central bank cryptocurrency. Once that is done, all other cryptocurrencies will be seized and folded into the government’s crypto. There will be no competition.

The Biden Administration Urges Struggling Families to Buy Solar Panels


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Aug 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Similar to Pete Buttigieg’s braindead suggestion to simply buy an electric vehicle to combat energy inflation, the White House is now offering another solution for Americans crippled by inflation – stop being poor. While they did not say these words verbatim, their ideas behind taming inflation among low and middle-earning Americans are completely out of the realm of reality. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm patted the Democrats on the back for passing the Inflation Reduction Act.

“If you are low income, you can get your home entirely weatherized through the expansion from the bipartisan infrastructure laws, a significant expansion — you don’t have to pay for anything,” Granholm said, toting government rebates. Solar panels can run anywhere from $15,000 to $25,000 for an initial setup. Is this something people with little disposable income can afford? How about the growing number of renters who do not have this option even if it were “free.”

Granholm offered more belittling advice for the middle class. “If you are moderate income, today you can get 30% off the price of solar panels. Those solar panels can be financed, so you don’t have to have the big outlay at the front … it’s a significant incentive.” Oh wow, a 30% discount and only a six to 12-month wait for the tax credit! Forget about basic shelter costs and food, go ahead and finance expensive solar panels as your family starves on the streets.

This administration is completely out of touch with the needs of the American people. They have done absolutely nothing to lower energy inflation and are now gas lighting the people to believe WE can do more to combat prices not seen in 40 years.

The Outlier of the West, Japan Core Inflation Rises 2.4% Year Over Year


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 19, 2022 | Sundance 

If you have been following along, you might remember the note we made in July about not every country willing to go along with the western agenda on energy reduction, climate change, and raising interest rates to shrink their economy down to the scale of diminished energy development {Go Deep}.

In addition to Russia, China, Iran, Brazil, South Africa, Argentina and India vociferously retaining their own economic and monetary independence, Mexican President AMLO literally blasted the program while visiting the White House and the Bank of Japan refused to join the mantra to raise interest rates.   Essentially, all of the aforementioned nations see the collective Build Back Better program for what it is, a path to poverty.

As a result of their non-compliance with the global bankers, which, not coincidentally I would point out, coincided with the assassination of Shinzo Abe, the government of Japan has been getting blasted by the proverbial ‘west’ (U.S, Canada, U.K, Europe and Australia).

Japan is attempting to deal with inflation by focusing on increasing energy production and security (the supply side); while the rest of the western group have been chasing the false promise of decreased inflation by lowering the demand side, ie. pretending not to know their energy policy is creating the increases in costs.

As a result of the distinctly different monetary approaches, the financial system has been trying to punish Japan and the financial media have been trying to point out every flaw in the Japanese economy as a result of their noncompliance.   However, as you will see in this Reuters article, the July inflation within Japan is moderating.  Inflation in Japan is 2.4% for July (year over year).

TOKYO, Aug 19 (Reuters) – Japan’s core consumer inflation accelerated in July to its fastest in seven-and-a-half years, driven by fuel and raw material prices and adding to the costs of living for households yet to see significant wage gains.

In a sign of broadening price pressure, the so-called “core core” index that strips away not just the impact of volatile fresh food but energy prices, also rose in July at the fastest annual pace in more than six years.

While inflation exceeded its 2% target for four straight months, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to remain an outlier in keeping monetary conditions ultra-loose with price rises still modest compared with other major economies.

“Food prices and a weak yen were the main culprits behind accelerating inflation,” said Yoshimasa Maruyama, chief market economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, adding that he expects core consumer inflation to reach 3% this year. (read more)

It is funny to see Reuters put out a *shock* styled article for 2.4% core inflation.   In the U.S. Joe Biden would be celebrating 2.4% inflation right now; however, his energy policy is driving that CORE inflation number well beyond 6%.

Japan is still in a tough place with increasing prices for their citizens, but it is nowhere near the scale of Europe and North America.

While their currency is suffering from not following the western agenda, they have several upsides.  First, exports from Japan to the United States and the EU now become even cheaper. With a higher dollar value, Japanese imports into the United States come at a discount.  This will help Japan export goods and retain a strong export economy.

Second, with Japan already a massive investor inside the United States, the dollars that are generated in profit from their operations are delivered back to Japan at a higher value.  A higher dollar value, the outcome of their breaking from the western central bank decision to raise rates, does not hurt Japan.  They bring back high valued dollars from their decades in investment into North America, and they continue exporting to the U.S. at a discount.

So, the nationalist outlooks of Japan, Brazil and even our Mexican neighbors are reflecting a pragmatic self-interest that so far has withstood the pressures from the western alliance to fall into line.  This is how those three countries are positioned to push back against the insufferable BBB agenda.

We can use the example of those western industrialized nations to show that not everyone is in alignment with this globalist multinational finance and corporate takeover.

The truth About Climate


A paper I wrote in 2021 and updated early in 2022

Senator Kyrsten Sinema Agrees to Senate Green New Deal Spending and Tax Proposal After Negotiating Minor Changes


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on August 5, 2022 | Sundance

Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema has announced her support for the senate climate change spending and tax proposal after some modifications to the new taxation.

To support the hedge fund donors, Senator Sinema insisted the carried interest loophole tax provision be removed and instead replaced with a corporate tax on stock buybacks.  Any time a corporation wants to buy back their own shares of stock, they will now pay the U.S. government a tax for doing so; at least that’s the ¹intent.

[¹Note: taxing shares of company stock will never work, because that’s exactly what shell companies were designed to avoid.  Set up a child shell company to purchase the stock and the parent company doesn’t pay taxes on the child’s purchase.  It’s a shell game]

Additionally, according to reports, there is some kind of agreement to modify the 15% corporate minimum tax.  Details unknown.  Bottom line, Senator Sinema now supports the $700 billion climate change spending and tax proposal.

“We have agreed to remove the carried interest tax provision, protect advanced manufacturing, and boost our clean energy economy in the Senate’s budget reconciliation legislation,” Sinema said, signaling that she plans to vote to begin debate on the bill.  “Subject to the parliamentarian’s review, I’ll move forward,” she said.  (link)

US National Debt to Surpass 185% of GDP


Armstrong Economics Blog/Sovereign Debt Crisis Re-Posted Aug 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Congressional Budget Office warned that US federal debt is expected to rise 185% within the next 30 years. Total debt holdings could double the size of US GDP by 2051. No politician or spender of this debt cares as they have no intention of paying it off. The Congressional Budget Office is calling this an optimistic forecast, given the previous estimate of debt soaring to 202% of GDP by 2051. The fact of the matter is that no one can foresee how much money politicians will continue to spend. Servicing the debt will become more expensive over time, expected to reach 10% of GDP by 2051, 7.4% in 2042, and 5.1% in 2032.

Most do not realize that the national debt is already at monumental levels. US gross federal debt to GDP reached 100% by 2012. The ratio remained somewhat stagnant until capitalism became sick with COVID in 2020, and the GDP to debt ratio rose to 128.1%. The figure stood at 137.2% by December of 2021 and has continued to increase.

China no longer wants US debt and has begun to sell off its holdings. As other currencies decline relative to the dollar, US debt, and all government debt in general, no longer seems like a smart investment. We have reached a point where Congress can continue to pass bills and bribe voters with socialistic promises from their latest puppets because no one cares about the future of America. The US will be the last to fold but expect the inevitable as countries, city-states, and governments are all temporary in the eyes of father time.