TIME is more than just money; it’s absolutely everything and then some! Personal opinion just utterly fails because we are all human. Markets routinely do what the majority never expects. That is their function. They mutate like a virus always changing its genetic code to defeat medicine, or in this case, traders. Back on November 30th, 2017, I explained on the private blog: “We must respect that exceeding the November high now in December on a sustained basis, points to a January high. If we pull back, then January will be a low and then watch out for a sharp rally into March.”

TIME is the very fabric of the universe and probably the most misunderstood element of all. In physics, the relativity of simultaneity is the concept that baffles many. The question becomes, do two distant events actually take place simultaneously? Therefore, the question whether two spatially separated events occur at the same TIME is recognized to be far from absolute. It is “relative” depending on the observer’s reference frame. This becomes incredibly important in terms of forecasting the world markets.

To grasp what our model is really doing one must look at TIME and EVENTS more in the perspective of turning points – not specific events. Once you understand we are forecasting turning points on the TIME horizon, not specific events, you will begin to make a leap forward into a new world of understanding TIME.

Specific events on the horizon become easy for forecast based upon the trend in motion relative to TIME. When trends reach that events horizon in time, then a specific high or low is easily ascertained. Right now, we are in the throes of a major breakout and a characteristic of Vertical Markets has been what we call the Cycle Inversion process. Normally, turning points unfold in opposite pairs. So a November high would traditionally be followed by a January low. Merely exceeding the November high on a closing basis during December identified the continued rally into the next target being January 2018 warning we were (1) dealing with a Cycle Inversion, and (2) a Vertical Market that is going to be very difficult to trade for most people.

It is paramount that we understand how Vertical Markets function.

COUNTERPARTY RISK

QUESTION:  In regard to counterparty risk when purchasing exchange traded funds or notes: With European banks being under capitalised due to the excessive risk undertaken due to the EU regulations regarding bailouts, how can we measure the threat of each counterparty which has backed each ETF. Would it be safer to consider only ETFs with US counterparties, or is just another risk we have to take on board. Do we avoid these types of instruments in favour of choice companies.

ANSWER: If you wish to use ETF’s, as they are extremely cheap and liquid, the large US names such as Vanguard, State Street etc. are available. We often write to hold the physical share certificate as the same as holding tangible assets but realize it is very difficult to take delivery.

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I find it interesting how you have pointed out that when it comes to public debt, the USA is actually far better than Europe or many in Asia. You also forecast that debt would begin to rise sharply from mid-2017 going into 2021. Do you have any figures to support that forecast?

NW

ANSWER: Yes of course!. The volume of global debt is rising significantly. According to the Institute of International Finance, total liabilities in the third quarter of 2017 surpassed $230 trillion. This is an increase of 16 trillion compared to the end of 2016. As the interest rates continue to rise, the debt servicing costs are simply going to explode. As a whole, Europe is over 100% of debt to GDP on average compared to the USA at about 73%. Government debt has exceeded $60 trillion.

This entire system is coming undone. The debt servicing is exploding as rates begin to rise. The Sovereign Debt Crisis is very much alive and wel

I have previously reported that about 50% of German municipalities are insolvent. This is a global trend and we are witnessing it in the United States as well. The North Rhine-Westphalian Association of Cities has called for help from the future German federal government as the building crisis among financially weak municipalities continue to escalate. This includes the fourth largest by area in Germany with the capital situated in Düsseldorf. The main cities include Cologne, Düsseldorf, Dortmund, and Essen. They are pleading for a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD to save the municipal governments. With the end of the historic low-interest phase, interest rates are poised to rise dramatically in Europe and they begin to see that the appetite for new debt from the government is sharply declining.

Politicians have been hiding this municipal crisis in Germany until after the elections when it was assumed Merkel would win as always. Now the cat is coming out of the bag and we will begin to see the real impact of nearly 10-years of subsidizing governments by the ECB rather than actually stimulating the economy that never bounced. This is a fundamental background issue behind the rise in interest rates between 2018 and 2021.

The marriage of Prince Harry with Meghan Markle, an American, presents a real nightmare for the Royal Family. Meghan is required by law to not merely pay taxes on worldwide income, but if she receives money from her husband or his family, that will be income of gifts both of which will be taxable in the USA even if she never returns to the United States – EVER!

Worse still, Meghan will have to file Form 8938 if she has more than $300,000 worth of assets in any given tax year. She is already a millionaire for her acting career so filing Form 8938 means she will have to reveal in great detail all assets she owns. This may now include foreign trusts and details of the royal family’s estate that was previously undisclosed. One the USA and Japan tax worldwide income. Everyone else is far more civilized. You do not pay taxes if you live overseas. The theory is rather simple. You pay tax because you are using the services. Under USA law, you are owned by the government and are thus the property of the state and whatever you make even living outside the USA, taxes art due.

The tax code is proving a difficult obstacle for the Royal Family.