Tag Archives: TPP

Jan 16 2018

60% of Japanese Girls Are Not Dating & Are Younger Girls Looking for Older Men a Return of the Cycle?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Jan 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Culture is changing and much seems to be reverting back to the way it was before Socialism. Before the 1930s, there was typically a large age differe4nce between couples. The boy had to become a man and then approach the father to ask for her hand. He would have to demonstrate that he was capable of taking care of her. After Socialism when the government replaced old family traditions, the age differential collapsed. The common complaint girls have today is that boys in their 20s are immature. In Japan, this has manifested into what is called the “celibacy syndrome” where girls are not interested even in dating no less marriage. Now about 60% of eligible girls are not interested in dating. The high unemployment among the youth, in Europe especially, also has driven younger women to now seek older men for husbands who are (1) mature and not addicted to video games, and (2) have the means to support a family.

Other studies are uncovering interesting facts about age differences. Men ‘live longer’ if they marry a younger woman. Perhaps the natural balance was the way things were before Socialism. The boy had to first become a man before he was ready for a wife. What many girls complain about boys lacking maturity is often expressed that they are raised being told they can be independent whereas boys are raised these days telling them to have fun for there is plenty of time to settle down. It may be possible that girls are being prepared for life faster than boys in addition to the biological clock.

Just maybe, Socialism has disrupted a lot more than people think. Couples used to have several children for their retirement was the family unit. When Socialism came into play, family size reduced dropping from an average of nearly 5 to 2.5. In 1790, having more than 5 children accounted for 35.8% which is now only 1% of households. Children, who once saved to take care of their parents in old age, are no longer responsible. Government social programs take care of that. In the USA, it is Social Security which replaced the family structure. Socialism may have changed a lot more than saving to take care of the parents in old age. Altering the age differential of couples may also have also profoundly changed to our social structure and girls are naturally now either not interested in marriage or are looking for older men. The future of society may be starkly different than people suspect.

Jan 16 2018

Can Government Really Prevent War?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Jan 16, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Martin,

So much common sense from you. But, re the almost total corruption of government, could this be the ONLY practical solution?

That is:
1. Elect Politicians directly, at random, from the general, law abiding population for a fixed term with no possibility of re-election
2. Pay them well, with jobs/careers guaranteed and severe prison time for any corrupt activity

Of course, lots of other issues, all surmountable – but these principles are sacrosanct.

Could it be any worse than the current appalling corrupt situation?

Regards
IW

PS I understand this system was tried in ancient Greece and Italy around WW1. We might be better at the logistics now?

ANSWER: No there is no other choice. Thrasymachus (c 459-400BC) put it best: all forms of government become the same as they all act in their own self-interest. We really need a bureaucracy to run, but they MUST be accountable to elected people who are by NO MEANS career politicians. The European Project and the entire theory of federalizing Europe has been to supposedly prevent war by devolving everything to a single government. If there are no career politicians, then this will do far more to reduce the threat of war than any other step we can take toward securing our future.

A single government that is still not answerable to the people will not cut it. This is precisely the design of the European Project to eliminate any democratic process because they assume the people are too stupid to understand their vision. Those who dictate the trend of Europe known as the Troika, rule without any accountability to the people. There is no democratic process that any of them have to face. This is the European Project – a single government free of any democratic check and balance all justified to prevent war.

Jan 15 2018

2018 – Panic Cycle Year


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Jan 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armsyrong; Thank you for an eye-opening conference. Can’t wait for this year. You said 2018 was a Panic Cycle Year and that it would be unlikely to create an outside reversal in the Dow, but we should expect wild times ahead. Is this panic cycle impacting many other markets as well?

JV

ANSWER: Yes. This is the beginning of the Monetary Crisis Cycle that will go into 2021. That is probably where we will see the dollar rally break the world monetary system. This year, we should expect most markets to test BOTH sides of the game so pay attention to the Global Market Watch and the Reversals. This will tell us when the trends shift. There will be the classic fool who thinks that just because the euro finally exceed last year’s high or gold has rallied that this is it and that means the next four years will be the same.

Panic Cycles are notorious for trapping people on either the long or short side. You always have to trap the majority in order to create the slingshot to the upside of the waterfall to the downside. This is why they remain fools for they rush in based upon a few day’s price action. So far, everything is running its course. We are finally getting closer to the 125 threshold of resistance in the euro and the pound sterling has rallied with many starting to bet that BREXIT will not happen. Buying the Euro because interest rates are expected to rise with the ECB backing off of QE is just not being thought through rationally. QE has AILED to stimulate the economy after nearly 10 years, and all it has done is subsidize EU member states. Rates will rise when they start to have to sell to real buyers. Then the sentiment will shift mid-year and we will test the opposite side.

This is going to be a crazy year that seems to be divided into two trends in many markets (not all). We are going to issue the 2018 Canada Report, 2018 Gold Report, 2018 stock market report as quickly as possible. The Canda Report will be available at the Vancouver event in February. I will also be the keynote speaker this year at the Hack Miami 2018 programmer’s conference May 19-21, where I will be delivering the lecture on the future and AI Programming.

Jan 15 2018

How Will Interest Rates Double in Europe from Here


Armstrong Economics Blog/Bonds

Re-Posted Jan 15, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty

 Thanks for all your guidance and help in navigating these markets. You mention rates are going up soon in Europe but how can the ECB achieve this when they are still implementing QE. I work in the European HY market and the technicals are horrible as so much money is flooding in chasing yield driving up leverage and deteriorating lending conditions. If rates do go up soon can we expect a spectacular unwinding of the HY bond market that has ground so tight due to CSPP?

Thanks so much, keep up the amazing work.

NS

ANSWER: Central banks can only control short-term rates for brief periods of time. They cannot control the long-end. The problem the ECB has is by backing off of QE, it will require private buyers to replace them, which will not happen at negative to low rates. The interest rates will be set by the private sector – not the ECB. The QE program has degenerated from an economic stimulus to simply life-support for member states. The “stimulus” never made it past the governments and we have nearly 10 years of QE that has just failed completely. Once the government have to turn back to private buyers, that is when you will see rates rise sharply to try to sell new debt.

Jan 14 2018

The Euro on Yearly Models – Let the Crazy Times Roll


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

Re-Posted Jan 14, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Reviewing the private blog, at the end of 2016 on December 31 you wrote “When it comes to the Euro, the Major Yearly Bearish Reversal lies at 10365 and the intraday low for 2016 was 10352 closing the year at 10513. This too warns that we may not be ready to meltdown just yet.” You called for the Euro rally into the German elections but it did not reach the 125 and stopped at 120. Then for the close of 2017 you wrote on the private blog: “On our Yearly Models, we have had THREE Directional Change targets all back-to-back from 2017 to 2019. From a technical perspective, we achieved an outside reversals to the upside in the Euro making 2017 the low but closing above the 2016 high. We never quite reached our target in the 125 level, so it appears we still have time to do this here in the coming New Year.” You also wrote: The year-end signals we achieve in the Euro for the closing of 2017 will be significant for the overall tone of what is to come reflecting how fast things will develop. Our models are reflecting a sharp rise in volatility in 2018 as well.”

My question is this. With three yearly directional changes from 17 to 19, I assume this means choppiness. Your volatility models show a sharp rise in 2018 as well. Do you think we can really reach the 128 or 135-140 level by March?

HS

ANSWER: In order to create the greatest amount of chaos, you always have to swing to extremes. If we are going to really create total havoc that will bring down the monetary system as we head into 2021 and force some sort of a new Bretton Woods, the only way to do that is a dollar rally. A dollar decline means sovereign debts issued by other nations in dollars will be devalued encouraging them to issue more. The way to break the system is only a dollar rally which forced Roosevelt to devalue the dollar back in 1934 and it forced the Plaza Accord in 1985 that gave birth to the G5. The US always wants a lower dollar to reduce the trade deficit. This is Trump’s policy as well. The market will NOT be that forgiving.

A rising Euro will increase the debt burden in Europe and deflation reducing exports. Ending QE by the ECB will result in rising interest rates. But that is always a bell curve. What people constantly get wrong is the classic one-dimensional analysis. They assume whatever trend is in motion will remain in motion. Rising interest rates will always at first support a currency as should be expected with the Euro short-term. However, that will be the trend provided the confidence in government remains. If confidence collapses, then suddenly the interest rates will continue to rise exponentially and the currency will collapse along with asset values.

The high in US interest rates took place in 1899, It was 1896 when J.P. Morgan had to bail out the US Treasury because they were broke. Following America gaining control of the Philippines as part of the ending of the Spanish-American War, in 1899 the Philippines declared war against the United States requiring independence from America. The war continued until 1902 when the Philippine President Emilio Aguinaldo surrendered. In 1916, the United States granted the Philippines autonomy and promised eventual self-government, which came in 1934. In 1946, following World War II, the Philippines was granted full independence. The fact that the USA was at war with Spain led to questions of its ability to cover its finances. The USA nearly doubled the output of $20 gold coins during 1898 and 1899 to pay for expenses of the war. When confidence declined, this is when we see the highest levels of interest rates.

This is what will happen in Europe. It is all depending upon the fleeting whims of confidence. Only a complete fool thinks that a trend set for a few days will continue forever. Nevertheless, the first level is the technical resistance just below 124. Then we have 125 and 12890. These remain possible and will help to create the impression the euro will rally and the dollar will collapse. That will suck everyone in and then you have the stage set for the slingshot in the opposite direction.

We should see the flurry build once the Downtrend Line is exceeded. Then you will hear the big sucking sound bringing in all the dollar haters and we then set the stage for crazier choppy trends.

This is NOT going to be an easy people between 2018 and 2021. So hang on to your socks. This will be a very interesting time. The key is to survive it.

Jan 14 2018

The Rush to the Euro with QE Ending?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

Re-Posted Jan 14, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have been calling for the dollar to decline against the Euro and it should test the 125 level. Do you see the dollar continuing to decline which then breaks the back of Europe with deflation and then everything flips?

WK

ANSWER: Last year was an outside reversal to the upside meaning it made a new low since 2008 reaching 10341 and then closed above the 2016 high. That confirmed we should see a lower dollar in 2018 and our target in the 125 level has been slow in coming. There is no reversal of fortune without a closing above 140. Our minimum target was 12570 with the next forming at 12890. Thereafter, we reach the major resistance in the 135-140 zone. The technical resistance begins just shy of 124.

The Euro is rallying because the ECB is seen to be abandoning its QE program which has failed. The rush to the Euro is the assumption that with higher rates, at last money will come home. We still have a minefield of political issues. Creditors are dissatisfied with the lack of austerity in Greece as well as Italy. Our critical turning point remains March 2018.

The crisis yet to unfold is will there be buyers of European debt to take up what the ECB has been buying? This is part of our forecast with rising rates and the more they rise the worse the budget will get. There is just no way out of this crisis without serious reform. So people rushing into the Euro thinking this is a turn-around long-term for the dollar will be shown that the old saying fools rush in where wise men never go will be carved in stone.

So for now, we still await the test of 125-128.

Jan 14 2018

Iran Economic Decline = Rise in Protests


Armstrong Economics Blog/Middle East

Re-Posted Jan 14, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong; The economy is in a poor state at best because the government just does not know how to manage the state and this proxy war with Saudi Arabia is draining everything here in Iran. What is your view on the economy going forward?

REPLY: The lifting of economic sanctions under the 2015 nuclear deal with the USA did not result in any improvement in the Iranian economy. Iran’s economy has simply remained stagnant at best for we are in an overall economic contraction now into 2020. Inflation is running above 10% in Iran while many basic food items like eggs are up over 40%. Still, some 3 million people remain unemployed. The economic conditions since the Islamic Revolution have simply left about 35% of Iranians living below the official poverty line.

The protests in Iran are being instigated by economics as they are in Europe. The young Iranians, in general, are growing increasingly frustrated by corruption in government combined with economic mismanagement. Protests and instability are likely to continue over the next few years because of the government, like most others, is simply interested in retaining power – not reform.

Jan 13 2018

Former Uranium Transportation Company President Indicted on 11 Counts Related to Foreign Bribery, Fraud and Money Laundering Scheme


RE-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on January 12, 2018 by

U.S. authorities believe from at least 2009 to October 2014 Mark Lambert (pictured below left) and other company executives, including Daren Condrey, conspired to bribe Vadim Mikerin, an official at the Russian State Atomic Energy Corporation subsidiary (TENEX), in order to secure contracts for transporting nuclear fuel.

Daren Condrey plead guilty in June 2015 to conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and wire fraud. Condrey likely flipped on his former partner, Mark Lambert.  [Mr. Condrey is awaiting sentencing, according to the Justice Department.]

(U.S. Dept. of Justice) […] Mark Lambert, 54, of Mount Airy, Maryland, was charged in an 11-count indictment with one count of conspiracy to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and to commit wire fraud, seven counts of violating the FCPA, two counts of wire fraud and one count of international promotion money laundering. 

The charges stem from an alleged scheme to bribe Vadim Mikerin, a Russian official at JSC Techsnabexport (TENEX), a subsidiary of Russia’s State Atomic Energy Corporation and the sole supplier and exporter of Russian Federation uranium and uranium enrichment services to nuclear power companies worldwide, in order to secure contracts with TENEX.

The case against Lambert is assigned to U.S. District Court Judge Theodore D. Chuang of the District of Maryland.

According to the indictment, beginning at least as early as 2009 and continuing until October 2014, Lambert conspired with others at “Transportation Corporation A” to make corrupt and fraudulent bribery and kickback payments to offshore bank accounts associated with shell companies, at the direction of, and for the benefit of, a Russian official, Vadim Mikerin, in order to secure improper business advantages and obtain and retain business with TENEX.

In order to effectuate and conceal the corrupt and fraudulent bribe payments, Lambert and others allegedly caused fake invoices to be prepared, purportedly from TENEX to Transportation Corporation A, that described services that were never provided, and then Lambert and others caused Transportation Corporation A to wire the corrupt payments for those purported services to shell companies in Latvia, Cyprus and Switzerland.

Lambert and others also allegedly used code words like “lucky figures,” “LF,” “lucky numbers,” and “cake” to describe the payments in emails to the Russian official at his personal email account.  The indictment also alleges that Lambert and others caused Transportation Corporation A to over-bill TENEX by building the cost of the corrupt payments into their invoices, and TENEX thus overpaid for Transportation Corporation A’s services.   (read more)

Jan 13 2018

Are Police Acting Like Thugs Because Judges Refuse to Defend the Constitution?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Police

Re-Posted Jan 13, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Teacher Deyshia Hargrave was questioning the school board how they can vote to give the superintendent a raise when school employees have not gotten a raise in years. A policeman from the parish Marshal’s Office told her to leave the room. He shut down her freedom of speech to even ask a question in a respectful manner.  He ordered her to step outside, pushed her to the ground, and then arrested her dragging her out in handcuffs.

The question this presents is why are police officer lacking any training about human and constitutional rights. Far too many seem they believe they are supreme in their authority and need not answer to anyone. This evolves because judges are not defending the constitution as a whole. There are no checks and balances anymore. What happened to “We the People” in this modern day?

Categories: Police
Jan 13 2018

Judge Throws Out Gov’t Case Against Bundy


Armstrong Economics Blog/Rule of Law

RE-Posted Jan 13, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The pressure has to be so great in this land to ever obtain any justice. In the case of the rancher, Bundy, the government has been on a crusade to imprison him if not outright murder him to uphold their supreme authority to ignore the Constitution.

A U.S. Federal District Judge Gloria Navarro dismissed all charges against Nevada rancher Cliven Bundy, his two sons and another man on Monday after accusing prosecutors of willfully withholding evidence from Bundy’s lawyers. Judge Navarro cited “flagrant prosecutorial misconduct” in her decision to dismiss all charges against the Nevada rancher and three others. She wrote: “The court finds that the universal sense of justice has been violated.”

This is what is called a Brady Violation. Rarely will any federal judge actually dismiss a criminal complaint of the government on a Brady Violation – perhaps one in a million, if that. They have also crafted “harmless error” analysis to basically say you would have been convicted anyhow so rights do not matter.

Brady v. Maryland, 373 U.S. 83 (1963) was a landmark decision by the United States Supreme Court which established that the prosecution must turn over all evidence that might exonerate the defendant (exculpatory evidence) to the defense. The prosecution failed to do so for Brady and he was convicted. Brady challenged his conviction, arguing it had been contrary to the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. Prosecutors hate to ever turnover anything that will defeat them in court. In United States v. Bagley, 473 U.S. 667 (1985), the Supreme Court effectively overrule Brady by applying Harmless Error analysis meaning you have the burden to prove now that the evidence withheld WOULD HAVE changed the verdict. And who does the analysis? A judge of course and never the people.

In order for the Bundy charges to be thrown out, there must have been a lot of posturing behind the curtain. The government can always appeal and the likelihood of an appellate court overrule the district court is 100%. So what took place was to a large extent political. They wanted to get this off the table. Bunday spent 700 days in prison.