Tag Archives: TPP

Nov 1 2017

Spain Invades Catalonia – Nullifies the Democratic Vote


Armstrong Economics Blog/SPAIN

Re-Posted Nov 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Spanish Police have invaded Catalonia and the rigged high court of Spain nullifies its independence. It really is astonishing when you compare these actions to Russia and Crimea. At least Crimea the population were Russian speaking and not Ukrainian. Here we have Catalonia has had its own language from before the existence of Spain and have always regarded itself as separate and autonomous.

The action of Madrid are hailed and the constitution is the entire basis for the denial of human rights in Catalonia. Politicians have been carving the world and declaring borders for power. They have ignored language, race, religion and everything else for political power. Nobody ever says that is somehow wrong.

This is what is going on in Europe. Brussels is determined to eliminate borders, federalize Europe, and they hope in one or two generations, they will surrender language and culture to a central power.

Nov 1 2017

The Politics of Change – Iceland – New Zealand – Czech Republic


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Nov 1, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson’s Independence Party won the most votes in the Iceland election but he saw his party’s support eroded as voters turned to smaller parties in protest. This leaves the country in a position of uncertainty as the election has opened the door to power for the nation’s charismatic and very attractive left-wing leader, Katrin Jakobsdottir. Now Jakobsdottir has the chance to form together a narrow majority for a center-left coalition. She is a 41-year-old who is very popular on her own with pre-election polls that showed one in two voters wanted her as the premier.

Meanwhile, in the Czech Republic’s general election, the Populist billionaire candidate Andrej Babis and his party have won the largest cache of votes about 30%, which was three times that of anyone else. He ran on a Eurosceptic platform. He has said that he would not bring the Czech Republic into the Eurozone but he wants the country to stay in the EU. He also wants changes to the European Council on issues like food quality and a “solution to migration”.

The new Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern, has declared that capitalism is a blatant failure. She has banned foreign investment in property in the country.

What we are witnessing is 1933. That is when Roosevelt, Mao, and Hitler all came to power. It was not a particular political philosophy, but whoever was in power was being thrown out.

Oct 31 2017

EU Support Madrid Refuses to Acknowledge Catalonia


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Oct 31, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

Madrid has seized Catalonia by force and the EU, of course, backs Madrid saying they do not recognize Catalonia as a free state. This is demonstrating that human rights in Europe mean nothing when it comes to protecting the jobs of those in Brussels. This is clearly sending a statement to the rest of Europe – shut up or you are next. That statement should surprise nobody since the rising separatist movements in Europe are against the power of Brussels.

Meanwhile, Spain is proposing to change the President of Catalonia with treason. They threatened him before that he would end up like the last attempt to break away – dead. The Catalan regional president, Carles Puigdemont, who has been deposed by the central government in Madrid, has called on the population to “democratically resist” the seizure by Madrid. In a televised address on Saturday, Puigdemont said he would continue to work to build a “free country”.

Puigdemont’s speech was also published in writing. This version was signed with “Carles Puigdemont, President of the Generalitat (Government) of Catalonia”. It was the first time since his dismissal following the Catalan Declaration of Independence on Friday that the politician voiced his opinion.

Spanish Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría took control of Catalonia’s administration on the weekend. The Catalan police chief Josep Lluis Trapero was also terminated.

Oct 30 2017

Some Logical but Unmentioned Conclusions


Paul Eidelberg

Seven years ago, Caroline Glick exposed “The high price of coalition stability” (Jerusalem Post, June 22, 2010).  Her article involved some unmentioned but logical conclusions regarding Israel’s system of coalition cabinet government.  The present writer has written of these unmentioned conclusions in policy papers, books, and countless articles during the past two decades. Indeed, I have systematically correlated Israel’s political failings with its flawed institutions – all in vain.

Before continuing, let me assure the reader than I am well aware of the fact that political institutions, however wisely designed, cannot prevent the election of inept and even treacherous office holders, including presidents of the United States such as Barack Obama.  In other words, there is no institutional substitute for virtue and wisdom.  It should be emphasized that properly designed institutions can mitigate men’s follies and vices.  Alas, this is not the case in Israel, whose governmental institutions maximize the disarray of politics in this country.

The disarray began and continues as a result of a simple political decision: when Israel’s government was established in 1948, its founders, headed by David Ben-Gurion decided to make the entire country a single electoral district.  This political arrangement necessitates a parliamentary system in which parties win Knesset seats on the basis Proportional Representation (PR). Given a low electoral threshold (it has risen from 1% to 3.25%), PR spawns a multiplicity of parties such that no party has ever come close to winning a majority of the 120 seats in the Knesset.  This fact necessitates coalition cabinet government, which results in a cabinet consisting of several rival political parties.

Let’s examine the grounds on which virtually every commentator fears to tread.

1) The multiplicity of parties produced by PR prompts major parties – recall Labor in 1992 and the Likud since then – to deceive the public by campaigning on a more or less centrist or more vote-getting agenda, only to shift in the opposite direction once the leaders of these parties become prime ministers.  Thus, Labor leader Yitzhak Rabin, who scorned the PLO in the 1992 election campaign, signed – after a “decent interval” – the Israel-PLO agreement of 1993. Likewise, Ariel Sharon, who campaigned against Labor’s policy of disengagement in 2003, adopted – after another “decent interval” – that very policy!

2) Likud Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was also devious.  He said nothing of the “two state solution” preceding the February 2009 election. But after a mind-numbing interval of four months, he endorsed a Palestinian state!

3) Some sixty years ago, David Ben-Gurion denounced Proportional Representation and revealed the pernicious nature of multiparty cabinet government, which remains solidly entrenched to this day.  The reasons are not pretty.  PR not only yields a multiplicity of parties in the Knesset.  It also compels citizens to vote for fixed party lists.  One result is this: the members of the Knesset are not individually accountable to the voters in constituency or regional elections.

4) Moreover, members of the Knesset know that this system of voting for fixed party slates – a system found only in four out of more than 80 countries classified as democracies – enables an incumbent MK to be re-elected without having to compete with a rival candidate (who would surely reveal the incumbent’s political failings).  For this reason alone, virtually all members of the Knesset oppose direct, personal, and democratic election of Israel’s parliament.

5) Furthermore, multiparty cabinet government enables any MK, regardless of his record, to become a cabinet minister – the road to power and political longevity.  This explains Glick’s characterization of Ehud Barak is a “serial bungler.”  One may add Shimon Peres, the father of Oslo, who became a permanent fixture in the Knesset until that conglomeration of self-serving politicians elected him Israel’s president!

Surely a well-informed and perceptive political analyst like Caroline Glick could add many other instances of the disastrous consequences of multiparty cabinet government.

Oct 30 2017

Idiots who try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

COMMENT: Ok Mr. Armstrong, this is nuts; You are starting to freak me out with this forecasting. The last 2 months has blown me away when a few more elements of your methodology lit my bulb a little brighter. This may sound like you paid me to advertise for you but most of us know you’re not like Hillary. My simple approach combined 3 pieces important to me: 1. Basic knowledge of the markets on a global scale, 2. Basic understanding of your models and Socrates reports 3. Basic interpretation of the ArmstrongEconomics Blog. (utmost importance, hints included) Like Erwin said last year “it might save your life.”

He is so right.

Best to all;

RH

REPLY: I assume you are probably talking about this Vertical Market. This report is probably one of the most important I may have ever released. It’s not easy because so many people have been caught up in the Austrian School of economic thought and the Quantity of Money theory. The entire Quantitative Easy has proven that theory to be completely wrong.

I know this is like having to relearn everything. But that is just the way it is. I and my senior staff even are going to private meetings with central banks. Everything we have ever been taught in school is just dead wrong. This whole nonsense of Conspiracy Theories of people who are steering the world economy is just insane. If that were even true, then why call us at all?

The world economy is coming unglued. This is no joke. The sooner people wake up and just follow the money flows and forget the old theories, the sooner you will arrive at clarity. The only economic theories that were spot on were Adam Smith, who had no ax to grind in the observation of the Invisible Hand, and David Ricardo’s Comparative Advantage. Everyone else ever since has been about trying to eliminate the Business Cycle. This has caused a vast mess and we are about to pay the price.

We have insane politicians like the new Prime Minister of New Zealand, Jacinda Ardern who has declared that capitalism is a blatant failure while the former Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis says capitalism is ‘merely’ coming to an end because it is making itself obsolete.

Both witnessed the economic collapse, but instead of blaming the government and its socialist attempt to control the business cycle, they blame the people for not performing as they demand. What they are harping on is the disparity of wealth and want to take the wealth from the hated rich and somehow that is going to make it better. They are ignorant of the fact that this hated group they despise so much create the economy and jobs – not Marxism. Their failure to even recognize the collapse of Russia and China under Marxist theory is a tragedy that will only lead to internal class warfare.

I thank God I do not have much longer on the planet. I am compelled to watch idiots try to control the world and blame everyone else for their failure.

Oct 30 2017

What Came First? Cultivation or Cities?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read you One-World-Currency report. It was truly fascinating. From an academic perspective, what came first in the formation of civilization; agriculture or cities? Where does money fit into this historical perspective?

Thank you;

FD

ANSWER: There has been a fair amount of assumption that went into the history we were all taught in school. What has emerged since is a different perspective, to say the least! There are megaliths at Göbekli Tepe which were erected by hunter-gatherers around 9000 BC or about 3,000 years before history starts to be recorded. Göbekli Tepe is a stone-age mountain sanctuary. It has turned everything upside down insofar as it was assumed that the city came first and then agriculture. It appears that agriculture came first which enable people to create cities.

Göbekli Tepe proves that there was a shift from animism, a belief that attributes a soul to plants, inanimate objects, and natural phenomena inasmuch as there is some supernatural power that organizes and animates the material universe, to centralized religion. In other words, there was a shift from an egalitarian society all people are equal to a hierarchical society arranged in order of rank. Clearly, there had to be a profound economic change and yes there would have to be some sort of monetary reward in the form of some resource to create such a shift from an egalitarian to a hierarchical society.

Göbekli Tepe is extremely important despite its obscure purpose and meaning. It is not the meaning that we need argue over. The incredible fact is that such a monument was constructed in the first place 9000BC. The simple fact of its existence proves historical assumption dead wrong. It matters not whether these pillars that are carved were some religious rite or just a decoration. More than 200 pillars in about 20 circles are currently known and only 5% of the site has been excavated. The astonishing fact is economic. Producing more than 200 pillars took a lot of man-hours. That means the workers needed a stable food supply and therefore agricultural cultivate MUST have been existence BEFORE cities were carved out of stone.

The construction of Göbekli Tepe would also have required some division of labor among overseers, technicians, and workers and management. Therefore, this required a hierarchical society. Therefore, social development in creating such structures must have precipitated, rather than resulted from, the shift to agriculture.

The assumption was that cities came first and then cultivation. Obviously, you had to feed the people to construct the cities first. My bet is on cultivation came first and food became money. Money moved from food to clothing. We see the first use of metal as money being Bronze imitating a sheepskin, which was the standard of value; i.e. Jason and the Golden Fleece.

Even the early Roman bronze Aes Signatum (5 pounds of bronze) pictures a bull. Cattle were also a main monetary unit of value prior to metal.

Oct 30 2017

Catalonia (Catalunya) – Legal or not Legal


Armstrong Economics Blog/SPAIN

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
There are many who write in from Spain supporting Madrid against Catalonia. The core of their argument is that the call this movement an independent “socialistic movement” and they argue it is not at all but democratic.
“There’s indeed a strong independence feel in Catalunya, they have been like this for centuries although they never really were able to achieve a country status. … But one cannot claim to be democratic if you plan to force a secession with an election attended by less than half the people who can vote. Most people agreed on the national court’s decision that the referendum was illegal and supported the court rule by no attending to vote, they were 58 percent of the registered voters, those who were against the decision were able to vote anyway.”

Catalonia is an autonomous region in north-east Spain with a distinct history dating back almost 1,000 years. It is a wealthy region that has its own language, parliament, flag and national anthem. It also has its own police force and controls some of its public services.

Maximum of Barcelona

Historically, during the 12th century, Catalonia was taken under the same royal rule as the neighboring kingdom of Aragon. Catalonia has been part of Spain since its genesis in the 15th century when King Ferdinand of Aragon and Queen Isabella of Castile married and united their realms. Nevertheless, the history of Barcelonia extends back into ancient time. It was Maximum of Barcelona (409-411AD) who rose up to be independent of the collapsing Roman Empire.

This idea that Catalonia somehow belongs to Madrid in perpetuity is rather strange. Spain itself did not exist as a country until the marriage of Ferdinand & Isabella during the 15th century. There are coins issued in Barcelona which predate Spain. Back in the 11th century, the Iberian peninsula was divided into three kingdoms; (1) Caliphate of Córdoba in Taifa, (2) The kingdoms of Leon, (3) and The Kingdom of Pamplona and the County of Barcelona. Historically, Barcelona was not conquered by the Arabs who dominated most of Spain during the 11th century. From that period onward, Barcelona has always harbored a sense of independence from the rest of the Iberian peninsula.

So why such intensity against Catalonia? On October 27th, 2017, the Catalan parliament declared independence, in a 70-10 vote. That seems to be a clear majority vote. Granted, this came after an independence referendum on October 1st, 2017, in which just under 90% of Catalan voters backed independence, however, turnout was only 43%. That was, in part, because Madrid sent in troops to try to prevent the vote. Now Madrid has called for a new vote after dismissing the Parliament and thus appears to be setting the stage for a rigged election no different than Russia taking Crimea. The West sanctions Russia for such tactics but not Madrid?

The Supreme Court decision is used by Madrid to claim there is no right for Catalonia to separate. That is clearly a violation of human rights and it is the very same argument the King of Britain made against America so I suppose the United States is a totally illegal entity as well. Someone should serve notice to Trump to hand power back to London and surrender.

Oct 29 2017

GREXIT – Will Greece be Better off or Worse?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Greece

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

GREXIT

QUESTION: I just read an article about Grexit and the MoU that expires in the summer of 2018. Let’s assume Greece exits EU and the Euro, what would happen to Greece and it’s people? What hardships would Grexit bring to the Greek people and what could individual Greeks do to prepare themselves for these hardships?

Thanks for your blog.
Greetings from Greece!
Cheers,

J

ANSWER: Things will be much brighter once Greece gets out of the Euro. Brussels is desperately trying to keep Greece in the Eurozone for their survival, not what is best for Greece. The major data is published by various agencies that are directly or dependent upon government and they will always champion staying in the Eurozone. If you look beyond those headlines, you see a different picture. Most of our clients in Britain who were against BREXIT, now report that things are much better. The manufacturing industry experienced a job boom in the last quarter. Compared Q3 2016, the job market data with that for 2017 showed that the manufacturing sector witnessed a 24% increase in advertised vacancies over the past 12 months. Jobs have been created in Britain at a faster pace since the BREXIT vote, despite the headlines of the fake news.

I have explained before that when Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931, they instantly recovered from the Great Depression. This was the case study that George Warren used to demonstrate to Roosevelt that the dollar had to be devalued to reverse the economic decline. Maintaining the gold standard back then was the equivalent of “austerity” imposed upon Europe by Germany. Everyone just gets this whole issue of currency and the Quantity of Money dead wrong. The Austrian School of economics predates the massive government debt era. Today, the government is the biggest borrower within society and they compete against the private sector reducing economic growth.

The refugee crisis alone has devasted Greece. The London Financial Times reported in June that bookings were off as much as 70% for tourists. Greece has to suffer refugees that have devastated its tourist business and that has been one of its primary economic sectors.

Bring on GREXIT and you will stop the refugees as well if they cannot get into the EU by going to Greece. The rest of the EU will not help Greece of Italy pay for these refugees. There is no benefit to remaining in the Eurozone. It is time to slam the door of Brussels.

Oct 28 2017

CIA & FBI Still Stalling on JFK Documents – Why?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Oct 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The CIA and FBI have had 50 years to go over these documents. Nevertheless, they waited to the last day to object. That tactic was deliberate to push Trump into a corner. He gave them six months to review. Many of the documents listed as “classified” are not even legible, raising more concerns that these have been deliberately altered to protect someone or something.

At this point, no matter what they release, still 60%+ of American will just not believe them. After 50 years to go by and claiming they are still a danger to “survivors” is an absolute joke. The files released also show intense defense by both the CIA and FBI to claim they had nothing to do with anything. That simply brings to mind Shakespeare. Hamlet then turns to his mother and asks her, “Madam, how like you this play?”, to which she replies “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.” Indeed, the CIA and FBI seem to protest too much asserting their innocence in this affair.

It is also clear from documents that the CIA questioned the official storyline of the assassination in the years followed. An unnamed CIA author noted in a 1975 memo that the agency, the FBI and the Warren Commission failed to investigate key clues into assassin Lee Harvey Oswald’s ties to Cuba.

Then we have FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover who in a memo dated Nov. 24, 1963, the same day that Oswald was killed by a questionable retribution of Jack Ruby, expressed concern that Oswald’s death would result in uncertainty among U.S. citizens over his guilt.

“The thing I am concerned about, and so is [Deputy Attorney General Nicholas] Katzenbach, is having something issued so that we can convince the public that Oswald is the real assassin,”

Hoover wrote.

At this point, there have been way too many delays and the only reason for that is to protect something or someone. If it were Oswald alone, then why hide documents?

Oct 28 2017

Spain Demonstrates to the World Democracy Means Nothing


Armstrong Economics Blog/SPAIN

Re-Posted Oct 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

The Madrid government sacked Catalonia’s president and dismissed its parliament on Friday, hours after the region declared itself an independent nation in Spain’s gravest political crisis since the return of democracy four decades ago. The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who seems to think he has the power of Franco, called for new elections and fired the Catalan police chief. The crisis in Spain is a reflection of the crisis in the EU as a whole. This unprecedented dictatorial array of measures to seize control of the administration in Barcelona is so undemocratic, it is guaranteed to send warning signals to many other regions of the EU especially Italy.