Category Blogger Martin Armstrong

May 16 2025

Biden Directed Funds to Afghanistan over 9/11 Victims


Posted May 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Taliban

The Taliban has been promoting the Afghan currency by auctioning off dollars. How is a known terrorist group obtaining USD? The United Nations has sent billions to the Taliban in recent years to support its central bank, with much of those funds being approved and sent by the United States. Worse, the Biden Administration confiscated $3.5 billion in funding from a fund designated for 9/11 survivors to pay the Taliban.

The Taliban has also auctioned off the billions in weapons that the United States left behind after the former commander in chief ordered an immediate withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. It is estimated that $7 billion in equipment was left behind, yet Biden blames Afghan authorities for allowing the Taliban to take over.

As for the funds stolen from the 9/11 fund, it originated when families who lost loved ones to the 9/11 attacks sued Al Qaeda, Iran, and the Taliban. No one expected any party to pay, but since Afghanistan had $7 billion in assets within the US, the court permitted it to be seized. This money was initially intended to support the families of 9/11 victims.

911

The government was quick to seize and redistribute Russian assets, but the last administration was hesitant to seize assets from known enemies. The US government began freezing Russian assets in February 2022, which is also when Biden decided to unfreeze $7 billion in assets from Afghanistan. Biden signed an executive order that determined the $7 billion would be placed in a trust fund—half would be sent to families of victims, while the other half would be used for humanitarian aid for Afghans.

A day later, the Biden Administration decided that the 9/11 families did not deserve the payout and sent it back into the court system. He did, however, ensure that the other $3.5 billion was sent to Afghanistan. Former Secretary of State Blinken, a notorious neocon, feigned concern for the families while saying that the victims “should have a full opportunity to set forth their arguments in court.” He later announced that seizing funds from the central bank would harm US interests in the Middle East.

Magistrate Judge Sarah Netburn ruled against the 9/11 families. Netburn ruled that the Afghanistan bank (Da Afghanistan Bank, DAB) had “sovereign immunity” as the nation was not sanctioned; only the Taliban, who happened to be ruling the nation, were sanctioned. Biden declined to declare Afghanistan a state sponsor of terrorism, providing them with immunity.

“Absent action by us, these funds were likely to be tied up in courts for years, while the action we have taken stands the best chance of more quickly freeing up a large portion for humanitarian support,” a White House official said after “activists” complained that it was unjust to seize funds. Former Treasury Secretary Yellen approved of sending aid to Afghanistan through the United Nations.

The investigation into USAID found billions funneled to terrorist organizations like the Taliban through the UN and NGOs. Biden was the only president to decline an invitation to the annual 9/11 memorial. Biden’s incompetence left 10,000 Americans behind. Few know that he authorized frozen funds to be redistributed back to Afghanistan while it was under the control of a terrorist organization.

I met with the Afghan government on neutral ground in Thailand many years ago. I was invited to give lectures there, but just never found the time to make that trip. As I have said before, most governments have heard of Socrates. After all, it has been putting out economic and geopolitical forecasts since 1977. From my discussions with them in Thailand, what I can say is that the Taliban are largely self-funded, yet have been warmly protected by Pakistan, which is the ONLY nuclear nation in that region. Pakistan has supported the Taliban, not for religious agreement, but because of their enemy, the Afghans, who were friends with Pakistan’s enemy, India. In that sense, there is a deep-seated religious conflict that goes back to the creation of Pakistan in 1947. China supports Pakistan and has announced it will continue to support Pakistan during its battle with India.

The peak in our model on the region took place in 2019 when any hope of some sort of peace treaty with the Taliban collapsed. Military operations between Afghan and US government forces and the Taliban then intensified in 2019, resulting in more than 8,000 civilian casualties. That was precisely on target, being 72 years from 1947, which was the real period of the rise in militant Islam. A standard 2-year reaction was in play, which has brought us to this point in 2021. But this is the start of a 13-year cycle of rising tensions, which will also peak in 2032.

Categories:CorruptionWar

May 16 2025

One in Four Americans Financially Illiterate


Posted originally on May 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Student Loans

Financial literacy is steadily declining in America. The percentage of US adults demonstrating a very low level of financial literacy increased from 20% in 2017 to 25% in 2023.

Around 58% of Americans know about debt and borrowing. Over half (55%) understand saving, and 50% understand consumption. About 42% understand insurance, 44% know about investing, and only 35% know about risk comprehension.

Financial literacy is declining with every generation. Around 53% of the Silent Generation understood finance, followed by 52% of Boomers, 50% of Gen, 45% of Millennials, and 38% of Gen Z. Around 74% of teens admitted that they do not feel confident in their personal finance knowledge, but the good news is that that 73% would like to learn.

There is a drastic difference in knowledge across socio-economic classes, as 75% of American teens are learning about personal finance through their family, with 52% learning a bit at school. An alarming 88% of Americans reported that high school public education did not prepare them for managing their finances. Interestingly, 48% said that they learned about personal finance through social media, which may not be the best reference.

Around 62% of teens said that they learned about savings, 50% were taught about earning, and 44% had some prior information on banking. Only 23% of teens in the US know how to make a budget, but 42% said they were taught how to do so.

This is why we see such a significant difference in financial literacy across socio-economic classes. Only 28% of people earning under $25,000 understand personal finance. That figure rises to 38% for those earning between $25,000 and $49,000, rising once more to 47% for those earning between $50,000 and $99,000. Over 58% of those earning six figures understand personal finance.

The National Financial Educators Council believes that financial illiteracy cost the American public $388 billion in 2023. Americans are facing a private debt crisis. Credit card and household debt have reached record highs and continue to rise. The majority of American households have insufficient emergency savings. The same survey found that 74% of Americans believe they would have made fewer money mistakes if they were properly educated on the subject matter in high school, and 80% believe they would have been more successful if they had that knowledge earlier in life. Politicians believe we should implement countless social programs and simply pay people to exist. America should focus on educating future generations on personal finance as it is perhaps one of the most essential life skills.

May 16 2025

Rouge Judge & Her Audacity


Posted originally on May 16, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Dugan Hannah Judge

QUESTION: Regarding Judge Hannah Dugan’s indictment, some are saying her defence is similar to that of Donald Trump, and this is all political since she says she has absolute immunity. You are the unbiased legal source. One lawyer friend said, “Ask Armstrong, and you will hear the legal truth.” So what’s up with this?

GP

ANSWER: This county state judge of Wisconsin was properly indicted for allegedly obstructing the arrest of a Mexican immigrant by federal US authorities. She has claimed that the charges should be dismissed because she’s immune from prosecution for official acts. Her definition of a “legal act” is that she could kill her spouse and claim immunity.

Supremacy Clause U.S Constitution

This is not even remotely related to the allegations of Trump commenting on the election as president. That is within the scope of his position. What he is alleged to have done was not an official act by any stretch of the imagination. She is an activist judge who disagrees with federal law but has no judicial power to circumvent that law. She had no jurisdiction over the ICE issue, which is in a federal court, not a local county court. If I were in the grand jury, I would have indicted her without question. There is no justification whatsoever for her actions, and there is no claim that this is an official act for which she has immunity.

May 15 2025

Are all the Leaders on Cocaine & That’s Why They are Pushing for WWIII?


Posted originally on May 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

This video is all over the place. I even went to my local doctor for the routine checkup, and she was from Serbia. She immediately brought this up. What I will say is this. One of my sources in Ukraine, whom I believe Zelensky had murdered to silence him, was Gonzalo Lira. He told me years ago that Zelensky was a cocaine user.  I have also heard similar stories about Macron, but I never sought to actually go to find proof. I tended to avoid such stories, for no matter what proof you dug up, they would still call it a conspiracy theory or Russian propaganda, like Hunter Biden’s laptop. I suppose it must have been Putin who stashed the cocaine in the White House, which they never bothered to investigate.

Zelensky Pants on Backwards

Here is Zelensky with his pants on backwards. You have to have been high on cocaine to do that. Never in my entire life have I ever put my paints on backwards. There is no way you don’t notice that unless you are way out there. How Stamer doesn’t tell him calls into question Stamer as well.

ECM Ukraine 8.6 R

Zelenskyy said Tuesday that “if Putin does not arrive and plays games, it is the final point that he does not want to end the war.” Europe wants war very badly, and these three leaders are probably using cocaine, which would explain their disregard for human life. I find it remarkable that this “peace” meeting in Turkey will be on the 15th, precisely the turning point on the ECM based on the war.

Looking at our computer models and the unbelievable number of markets that have Panic Cycles in 2026, I do not see how peace will be the outcome. Putin is not stupid. Any ceasefire is just Minsk all over again. Europe is pushing very hard to prepare for war.

Leyen Ursula von der

In 2005, Ursula von der Leyen was appointed Federal Minister of Family Affairs and Youth in the cabinet of Angela Merkel. Then she became Minister of Labour and Social Affairs, 2009–2013, then Minister of Defence, 2013–2019. She then became the President of the European Commission in 2019. This is crony politics. Ursula has ZERO qualifications and moves from job to job, where people tell their children they need a college degree, unless you are a politician. Then you are qualified to be anything, for experience is not necessary. If you need surgery, just ask the Uber driver if he has a nice smile and is free on the weekend.

Ursula to Steal Russian Assets

Now, Ursula is robbing Russia and violating every fundamental principle of international law. This is why Japan, China, and other foreign nations are dumping European debt. There is no rule of law in Europe whatsoever. Five officials briefed on the ongoing discussions told the Financial Times that the European Commission has said national capitals that a large portion of the sanctions, including €200bn in frozen Russian state assets, could be moved on to a different legal basis to circumvent Budapest’s veto just like they send troops in but call then advisors or peace-keepers rather than military invasion or support.

The EU has no intention of peace with Europe. They have used Ukraine as their vanguard, and they really do not care if one Ukrainian is still standing at the end of this as long as they take one Russian with them. The EU is engaging in a war of conquest. They pretend Russia wants to invade Europe, but they have nothing. There are NO natural resources and no profit to be had. However, Europe sees Russia as its ticket to ride. Conquer Russia and they get $75 trillion in assets, which is twice the size of the USA, and they will because the leaders of the world. It must be the cocaine that is feeding this delusion.

Cokehead

We still see the prospect of a major war by 2027. With cokeheads running the governments of Europe, this insane quest to push for war is not going to end well for Europe. We still see 2027 as a critical period where we can see World War III.

Russian_Rubles_Spot Y Combined 5 15 25
May 15 2025

France Proposes 500% Tariff on Russian Oil


Posted originally on May 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Oil Tanker

The European Union recently implemented its 17th round of sanctions against Russia, in case the first 16 were insufficient. Jean-Noël Barrot, France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, would like to take a harsher approach by placing a 500% tariff on anyone purchasing Russian oil.

“We must move forward because the current sanctions have not convinced Vladimir Putin to stop his war of aggression. Therefore, we must prepare for the expansion of devastating sanctions that could finally strangle the Russian economy,” the head of the French foreign ministry believes.

Bureaucrats consistently press for the same solutions that never address the problem. This plan would disproportionately hurt Baltic EU member nations who have repeatedly explained that they have absolutely no other alternative than to continue purchasing oil from Russia. The EU’s reliance on oil imports from Russia fell form 27% to 3% since the beginning of the war, but this does not account for individual nations who face individual challenges.

As of early 2025, around 60% of all oil imports to Hungary come from Russia. The nation is reliant on the Druzhba pipeline Slovakia still depends on Russia for up to 80% of its oil supply. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has accused the EU of attempting to create a “new Iron Curtain” between Russia and the West, and called abandoning Russian oil “economic suicide.”

“On the contrary, by insisting on stopping energy supplies from the east, the EU authorities, guided solely by political considerations, create conditions for further gas price increases, which also has consequences for rising electricity prices,” Fico said in a speech broadcast on SMER’s YouTube channel. Slovakia’s petrochemical plants and refineries are preconfigured for Russia oil.  The nation would need to update infrastructure, pay higher transit fees, and pay more overall for the necessity of energy.

Fico visited the Kremlin last week and expressed an interest in maintaining relations with Russia.  As noted in a prepared speech:

“There are also sanctions, which do not work and cause damage to the European Union itself. Now the EU has come up with a proposal called Repowering. This is a halt to the supply of all kinds of energy resources. But let us talk constructively. You will understand very well what I am going to tell you now. If someone thinks that it is possible to buy fuel from Westinghouse and use it at our nuclear power plants, it is impossible.

A halt of gas supplies will cause instability. Our petrochemical plants were set up to use Russian oil for oil refining, and the shutdown may cause technological problems. I hope that our EU partners will learn about this when legal acts are adopted in connection with Repowering. If it is necessary for all 27 countries to agree, we will use our veto power to ban imports of all types of energy resources. If it is decided not to vote unanimously, but by majority, then major countries will take their decision.”

This is why the European Union has moved forward with decisions without unanimous votes. Brussels eliminated any remaining hint of democracy and are forcing all EU nations to abide by its commands. Votes will no longer matter as Brussels has full authority.

“EU sanctions on Russia have cost Budapest €19 billion ($19.9 billion) in the last three years, more than the country’s annual tax revenues,” Hungary’s Orban stated back in January when he begged the bloc to force Ukraine to permit Russian gas transit. Orban has repeatedly explained that the EU is damaging its own energy sector by sanctioning a nation it is not officially at war with, but every headline reads that he is a Putin puppet.

Placing 500% sanctions on nations importing Russian oil would harm EU trade overall. China is the top buyer of Russian crude, holding 47% of overall exports, followed by India at 38%.

“Russia has found ways to circumvent restrictions imposed by Europe and the US, so turning off the tap could take Russia by the throat,” French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot added.

The European Commission is still phasing out Russian oil for the bloc by 2027. Hungary and Slovakia have an upcoming deadline to present the commission with plans for how they plan to phase out Russian imports. Both nations have said they plan to fight Brussels but those at the top simply do not care about individual member states. This is one of the many reasons why the EU simply will not and cannot survive.

May 15 2025

The Art of Regime Change – Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Russia  


Posted originally on May 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Saudi.Syria_.US_

Trade is a unifying agent that causes countries to put their differences aside. Donald Trump has been warmly welcomed by Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and even a leader from Syria.

The United States announced it would lift sanctions on Syria after Trump’s historic meeting with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former Sunni jihadist and known terrorist. The Syrian president had a $10 million bounty on him prior to his sudden meeting with Trump, which happened a day after Trump said he would consider lifting sanctions. He was placed on the US Specially Designated Global Terrorist list back in 2013 for leading the Al Nusra Front, an Al Qaeda affiliate, and directing a series of suicide bombings across Syria. Ahmed al-Sharaa openly fought against American troops in Iraq before he left for Syria to form a coup against Bashar al-Assad with the group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS).

I should add that America captured Ahmed al-Sharaa while he was fighting for Al Qaeda in Iraq for over half a decade. America simply released him, or so we are told. The truth of the matter is that he was almost certainly compromised and turned into a CIA asset during this time period.

Russia’s 49-year relationship with the Assad government has come to an end, and along with it, its stronghold in Syria. Syrians have been critical of Russian forces in the region and blame them for numerous civilian casualties, demanding reparations. Syria is not about humanitarian concerns. It’s about energy routes and Russian influence in the region. Washington had been trying to remove Assad for years because he refused to allow the Qatari gas pipeline that would have undermined Russia’s dominance in supplying gas to Europe. This is what the neocons never tell you. They want war—plain and simple—because it lines their pockets and advances their ideological dream of reshaping the world in their image.

Russia’s intervention in the region in 2015 was perfectly legal as Assad welcomed them in. It was the CIA and Obama who were funding radical groups in Syria, hoping to overthrow yet another government. This backfired completely and gave rise to ISIS. We now have the declassified documents from 2012 that show the US intelligence community knew this would happen and did it anyway. Ahmed al-Sharaa is exactly who the West needed to install an interim puppet government and force their way into Syria.

Sharaa.Jihad_

(Ahmed al-Sharaa, 2016)

AlSharaadTerrorist

Syria is currently under a transitional government, a preferred state by Western nations, as they can use capital to shape things to their liking. Bashar al-Assad’s regime was toppled in December 2024. The puppet government created a 23-member cabinet in March 2025 that is supposed to represent a diverse group with members from Christian, Druze, Kurdish, and Alawite communities and at least one woman. A number of former ministers from the Assad regime are within the cabinet as well, but HTS has full control over defense and foreign affairs.

The current president implemented the Constitutional Declaration on March 13, 2025, which will provide the framework until 2030. Yet, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) still control many regions and has not integrated into the national army. Yet, they are controlling the oil production at present.

Saudi Arabia Royal Highness Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (pictured above) and Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged the US to remove sanctions on Syria, citing that American aid and trade would help uplift the new government under HTS. It all comes down to money.

Turkey’s ambitions lie with the Russian debacle, as the Middle East is simply the second location for the ongoing proxy war. As I have warned, this is a NATO member to keep an eye on.

Saudi Arabia is eager to stabilize the region to encourage Gulf investments. Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan declared there will be a “breakthrough in the kingdom’s support to Syria after the lifting of U.S. sanctions,” as both Saudi Arabia and Qatar begin investing heavily in rebuilding Syria with minimal international backlash, with America’s support.

Saudi Arabia also agreed to invest $600 billion into the United States in crucial sectors like defense, energy, and mining. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said $1 trillion in deals will be finalized in the coming months. The US agreed to sell Saudi Arabia $142 billion in arms, marking the largest defense agreement in American history. The US is ready to secure its place in the Middle East and form stronger alliances to ensure its stronghold over the region.

Syria has an estimated 2.5 billion in proven oil reserves, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Pre-war, Syria was producing 385,000 barrels of oil daily, but that slowed drastically to 24,000 to 34,000 per day from 2019 to 2025. At present, Syria has been generating 110,000 barrels per day, with 100,000 barrels from the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and only 10,000 from the new administration. This is far from a recovery since the nation needs about 150,000 bpd to meet demand domestically.

The United States now owns Syria through its ties to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey. More importantly, the interim government has been freshly established with a new Constitution promising diversity and a change from Sharia law to appease the West, although the president is a known jihadist terrorist who was captured by American troops and released in order to overthrow Syria’s last regime. All of this was planned out long ago. The West has leverage against Russia once again. The SFD is unlikely to surrender to the new government simply. The Art of Regime Change is in full swing in Syria as various world powers battle for influence, power, and control over the land.

May 15 2025

New York Inflation Refund Checks


Posted originally on May 15, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

NYC 2

Governor Kathy Hochul is up for re-election next year, and she’s prepared to throw state revenue at potential voters. New York is introducing the first “inflation refund check,” which will provide over 8.2 million state residents with a cash payout.

“Starting in October, over 8 million New Yorkers will get an inflation refund because it’s simple — this is your money and we’re putting it back in your pockets,” Hochul said in a statement. Hochul claims low and middle-income households will benefit from these checks, which she had already allotted in the state budget for FY 2026. Payouts will be $200 for single filers making up to $75,000 and up to $400 for joint filers making up to $150,00. This is reminiscent of the stimulus checks sent out during the coronavirus pandemic, although the threshold was not adjusted for inflation.

How did New York raise the state budget? By raising taxes on EVERYONE. The local sales tax went up again from 4.25% to 4.375% this March. The Metropolitan Commuter Transportation District (MCTD) payroll tax will rise this July, penalizing businesses for existing within the confines of the city. Merely driving in NYC is a costly process thanks to those in charge.

NYC Tax

Personal income tax accounts for most of New York’s budget, which has increased in recent years and ranges from 4% to 10.9%. New Yorkers are also required to pay local income taxes in addition to the state tax. Suffolk County recently raised its local tax from 4.25% to 4.35%, so even if you are making minimum wage, you are expected to give 8.75% of your take-home pay to New York.

New York State’s FY 2025 budget anticipates a deficit of $13.9 billion, an improvement from last year’s forecast of $27.1 billion. Analysts predict that spending will continue to outpace revenue in the coming years, with the structural imbalance for FY 2028 at an optimistic $15.6 billion.

The state and local governments will continue to raise taxes and implement new ones. Politicians bank on the general population’s stupidity. They’ve increased the cost of living through taxation, but expect the people to believe that they’re concerned about inflation when their policies are inflationary. They’re telling the public that they’ve strategically set aside the money in the budget as if they have $2 billion to spend on this ridiculous program.

May 14 2025

States May Fund Migrants – Grey Area Questioned


Posted originally on May 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Illegal Immigration

President Trump’s Executive Order 14218 (February 2025) prohibits undocumented migrants from receiving federal funds. However, individual states are not prohibited from funding migrants, and several blue states are continuing to use state funds for such purposes. There is a grey area here as these states are incentivizing illegal settlement, but at the moment, the law seeks to ensure that only federal funds are not distributed to illegal settlers.

California may be in the midst of an energy and debt crisis, but Governor Gavin Newsom continues to fight Washington on behalf of migrants. California’s Cash Assistance Program for Immigrants (CAPI) provides cash payments to migrants who are ineligible for Social Security. Is this program using federal aid? The Department of Homeland Security has subpoenaed the past four years of records to determine if migrants resisting in Los Angeles have been receiving cash payments at the expense of our federal budget.

DHS Secretary Kristi Noem said that the subpoena for Los Angeles is merely the beginning of their ongoing search. “The Trump Administration is working together to identify abuse and exploitation of public benefits and make sure those in this country illegally are not receiving federal benefits or other financial incentives to stay illegally.” She continued, “If you are an illegal immigrant, you should leave now. The gravy train is over.”

California.Migrant.FreeHousing

A memo from the White House last month revealed that the American taxpayers have been paying $182 billion annually to cover all expenses for 20 million migrants, based on research from the Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR). The study found that the $182 billion included $66.4 billion in federal assistance, with state and local expenses reaching $115.6 billion.

People residing in blue states may not realize that their tax dollars are still being used to support people who illegally entered the nation, cannot apply for work, and are living a taxpayer-subsidized life.

In March 2025, Newsom requested a $3.44 billion loan from the general fund, the maximum loan amount permitted under California law, to pay for social programs. An additional $2.8 billion in state funding has already been committed to cover June costs. He is spending funds faster than they can be collected. Newsom has proposed numerous tax hikes, but they could never amount to his perpetual spending.

Gavin_Newsom_Bans_California_From_Requiring_ID_to_Vote_Newsweek

Instead of focusing his attention and resources on Americans who have paid into the system their entire lives, Newsom has ulterior motives. He approved of spending $10 billion on health care costs alone for migrants.

Every agency involved in California’s finances has warned Newsom that his spending will destroy the state. Spending over the past five years has skyrocketed by 63% to $200 billion. I reported that the Legislative Analyst Office (LAO) found that California is facing “double-digit operating deficits in the years to come” as a result of reckless government spending.

California’s debt will rise when the federal government removes any funding misdirected toward non-citizens. There is a grey area here where states are openly encouraging illegal settlement through incentives from their taxpaying, legal residents. The Department of Homeland Security may still deport these migrants, but as we have seen in recent weeks, blue states will not relent.

May 14 2025

BLS Data Revised – Payrolls Declined Under Biden


Posted originally on May 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

JobsReportJuly2024

(Data before revision)

The Biden Administration successfully mislead the American people into believing that Bidenomics was a successful endeavor. The administration managed to mislead the people into believing the health of the economy, and president for that matter, were in good condition. New revised data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals that the private sector contracted significantly under Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.

The BLS surveys 200,000 out of 600,000 businesses monthly to determine nonfarm payroll estimates. The figure is consistently revised with somewhat minimal deviation from the prediction. Yet, that was not the case under the Biden Administration.

The BLS publishes the Business Employment Dynamics (BED) census as well on a quarterly basis. The sample size is 12 million or 17 times the size of the monthly nonfarm payrolls report. From July 2024 to September 2024, monthly data showed a Q3 increase of 399,000 jobs. The newly revised figure shows that the private sector actually contracted by 1,000 positions. This is more than a mere miscalculation—it is a deliberate LIE intended to mislead the American public ahead of the presidential election.

Now, the BLS also releases a quarterly census report on employment and wages. The BLS determines its annual benchmark by comparing these varying reports and reevaluating its monthly estimates. Every March, the BLS looks at the Current Employment Statistics, or CES, survey, and looks at administrative records of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). Around 97% of employment falls under the CES scope, and the remaining 3% is analyzed by looking at County Business Patterns or other sources like the Railroad Retirement Board. The March survey determines the “universe” count and adjusts the prior year’s monthly estimates, recalibrating the data to match the universe figure.

Biden Republican will bring chaos2022_11_03_20_32_25_Biden_says_Republicans_would_cause_chaos_in_U.S._economy_Reuters

How significantly were payrolls recalibrated from last year? From March 2023 to March 2024, the BLS now believes that there was a DECLINE OF 598,000 nonfarm payroll positions.

The BLS reported that the economy grew by 398,000 positions from March to June of 2024 when looking at their monthly reports. The BED analysis actually shows a DECLINE OF 163,000 private sector positions. They were shoving jobs into the public sector to cover the true figure and mask the fact that the economy was in trouble.

Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Erika McEntarfer, was appointed in January 2024 by Joe Biden. There have been numerous scandals under her lead, such as the leak of the April CPI report to private sector economists. The delayed released of the annual nonfarm payroll revision was leaked on social media before the agency’s official publication.

These government reports have long been used as tools of propaganda. They miscalculate everything from payrolls to CPI to mislead the public into believing that their government has a handle on the economy.

May 14 2025

US April Inflation – 2.3%


Posted originally on May 14, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

CPI Formula

The numbers are in, and the Consumer Price Index fell to 2.3% this April annually, down from March’s 2.4% reading, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. April’s reading is the lowest since February 2021.

Shelter costs drove more than half of all items monthly, increasing by 0.3% on a monthly basis, and 4% annually. The energy index experienced a 0.7% increase from the month prior, slightly offset by a decrease in gas (-0.1% monthly; -11.8% annually), fuel oil (-1.3% monthly; -9.6% annually), and energy commodities (-0.2% monthly; -11.5% annually). Electricity rose 0.8% monthly and is up 3.6% for the year, while piped utility advanced 3.7% and is up an alarming 15.7% annually.

Yes, shelter is included in the CPI, but it’s not real-time, and it’s not accurate. The way they calculate shelter is through something called Owner’s Equivalent Rent. It’s based on what homeowners think they would charge to rent their homes, not what people are actually paying in the real world. They consider the actual purchase of real estate an investment, and therefore, that does not go on the CPI report. actual rents and home prices have surged because of artificially constrained supply, institutional buyers, and rising taxes. So the CPI gives a watered-down version of housing inflation.

Food inflation declined by -0.1% for the month, with a 2.8% yearly increase. The meats, poultry, fish, and eggs index rose 7% over the last 12 months, driven by the 49.3% uptick in eggs. The index for nonalcoholic beverages rose 3.2% over the same period, while the index for other food at home rose 0.7%. The dairy and related products index increased 1.6% annually. The cereals and bakery products index remained stagnant over the past year, while the index for fruits and vegetables fell 0.9% over the same period.

Food and energy are the most volatile and politically sensitive components, so they’ve built the CPI to minimize their impact. They’re not excluded from the calculations but they’re manipulated. The BLS uses a tactic called hedonic adjustments. If the quality of a product improves, say a glass jar instead of plastic, they lower the price in the index, even if it costs more in the store. Then there’s substitution. If steak becomes too expensive, they assume you’ll buy chicken. Then if chicken goes up, maybe pork.

Energy is the same game. Oil prices might spike, but they use seasonal adjustments or shift the weightings so it doesn’t move the index much. If gasoline prices double, they’ll say your “transportation services” only rose 4%. It’s accounting gymnastics. Inflation affects interest rates, cost-of-living adjustments, entitlement payouts, and trust in government. So they cook the numbers.

Could this be the best reading for 2025? Global instability could result in sharp increases in food and energy. The impact of tariffs remains to be seen. The April CPI number is yet another example of how governments manipulate statistics to serve political ends. No one believes that prices are significantly down. Americans are experiencing a downgraded quality of life firsthand. Don’t take the CPI at face value. Look at what people are paying out of pocket — energy, food, shelter, taxes. Taxes are another aspect they conveniently exclude when calculating our cost of living. These are rising far faster than the CPI admits. We are in the middle of a confidence crisis, and instead of telling the truth, they’re pretending everything is fine.