Posted originally on Feb 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who is widely considered one of the Globalists, proposed deporting illegal migrants who commit crimes. Why this is controversial is beyond me. Poilievre declared “woke ideology” a dangerous mindset that leads to crimes, such as antisemitism against Jews on behalf of Palestine. “We must not just condemn these things. We must take action against them. We must deport from our country any temporary resident that is here on a permit or a visa that is carrying out violence or hate crimes on our soil,” Poilievre said.
I reported last month that Canada’s migrant crisis is costing the nation $16 billion annually. Taxpayers are paying around $224 daily to fund newcomers, as it costs around $81,760 per year to fund each asylum seeker who enters Canada.
Home inventory has shrunk to unseen levels as millions of migrants and foreign workers have caused a massive uptick in demand. Jobs are sparse, especially entry-level jobs, and over 1 million Canadians are out of work. More importantly, Canada’s population surpassed 41 million citizens, marking an all-time UNSUSTAINABLE high. Disgraced former PM Justin Trudeau insisted that Canada needed foreign workers and handed out visas to temporary foreign workers like candy on Halloween.
There are countless reasons for Canada to implement a mass deportation program. Deporting criminals who are not legal residents should be a welcomed start. We saw Toronto police ask residents to allow criminals to steal their cars to prevent home invasions after 26 neighborhoods in Toronto reported a 50% increase in major crimes over a one-year span.
Yet, Canada already has legislation in place to remove illegals who commit crimes. In fact, around 14,000 people were reported last year. The larger question becomes, what will Canada do to curb migration and remove the countless asylum seekers living off of Canadian taxes? Then we have the issue of removing woke rhetoric from Canadian society. Nearly all Build Back Better nations are seeing a sudden reversal as governments pushed the people so far left that they fled to the right.
Posted originally on Feb 3, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: My question is about your forecast that the separation of the United States would begin with California and that 2022 would be the turn in your model. Please explain how you came to the 2022 target and how this separation will develop.
DVS
ANSWER: The target 2022 was 172 years (2 x 8.6) from joining the USA in 1850 after the 1846 California’s Bear Flag Rebellion. However, the model turned up in 2018, when California first proposed exiting the USA because of Trump.
We warned that the Economic Confidence Model peak of 2015.75 was the peak in government. Trump won against all odds and forecasts in 2016, and within 2 years of that, California was proposing to separate from the United States.
It was 1846, the starting point for the separation movement 172 years later (2018). It was 1846 when the California Republic was a rebellion breakaway territory from Mexico, which lasted for 25 days between June 14th and July 9th, 1846. It was an area north of San Francisco. Ironically, it only involved 33 illegal American immigrants who had entered without official permission. They staged a rebellion against the Mexican government over the issue that they had not been allowed to buy or rent land and were threatened with deportation. Today, California wants to be a sanctuary state for everyone other than Americans. This is a 180-degree opposite turn, which seems to be cyclical – i.e., bull vs bear market.
Mexican officials were concerned about the prospect of war with the United States, so they were trying to prohibit the migration of Americans to retain their power and culture. The rebels created a flag named “California Republic” and raised it. It has always been a question of whether they did this purposefully to seize California. The insurgents elected military officers, but no civil structure was ever created. Their flag featured a California grizzly bear, which gave the name Bear Flag Rebellion.
Three weeks later, on July 5th, 1846, the Republic’s 100 to 200 men military grew much like Ukraine suddenly raising an army. The Bear Flag Rebellion ended on July 9th when, conveniently, the U.S. Navy raised the United States flag. Did the US plan to seize California and send these 33 guys into the area to start the rebellion so the USA did not appear to be invading Mexico and starting a full-fledged war? From 1846 onward, the U.S. military began occupying California. They then joined the union in 1850.
It was November 2022 when Trump announced he would run in 2024, which increased the CalExit movement in 2022. This has improved tremendously. The joke is that Davin Nusom wants to become the king of California.
Just as the people in the Donbas are Russian and have nothing in common with Ukrainians who just hate them, they should be allowed to separate. Under that same reasoning, California as a whole has nothing in common with the majority of the country. They, too, should be allowed to separate. The United States will break apart in any event, most likely as soon as 2029, if not more post-2032. As I have explained in the tariffs pieces I have written, Trump will actually go down in history as Herbert Hoover of the 21st century.
Posted originally on Feb 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: We are toast !?
Hello Armstrong, I could not resist to make a comment in regards of the freaking Tariffs war that is going to begin on this coming Tuesday between Canada and the USA .
The future looks bleak and as always the working class would see their lives going from bad to worse. I feel the world just need to go kaput !?Now!
Gemma
REPLY: The 2025 Canadian Report will be available after next weekend to everyone after Mike Campbell’s Conference in Vancouver. No doubt, the attendance after these tariffs will be a hot topic in addition to the resignation of Trudeau. Trump posted a message that there may be some pain, but the end will be fantastic. He tells them to build it here with no tariffs. So you will cause unemployment outside the USA to which you will be unable to sell anything to them. Sorry, we are headed into a recession for some places and a depression elsewhere. This was not a smart move.
Trump has just made our model correct once again. The world economy will now shrink and decline going into 2028. By the time this cycle is over, he will be blamed for much, contributing to when the government will collapse, feeding into the end game – 2032.
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The computer seems to have predicted Trump’s antiquated economic theories, for it had a Directional Change on the yearly level in the C$. Trump is acting on the old theories inspired by Karl Marx that he and everyone else are still taught in school to this day. I was just having a discussion with an economic professor in Italy who can see what has been taught is just wrong. This is all wrapped up in the theory of labor and the nonsense that the company will move if someone works for $5 less than someone else. That is just not true.
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There are so many factors involved that I had hoped Trump would have reached out and at least talked to me rather than his cronies who keep preaching the old theories that died with Bretton Woods. I was going to have a World Economic Conference for the next generation, where I go over all of these nonsensical theories that have failed and explain how the real-world economy functions. Trump won’t attend, but he should. He has just initiated what I warned about – he will go down in history not much different from Herbert Hoover. I wrote about the role of tariffs during the Great Depression. I suggest you read it and send your senator and congressman a copy.
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This asinine theory of tariffs and currency manipulation all for trade is beyond being just lamebrain. This dates back to when money was gold and silver coin, and even Sir Thomas Gresham’s law that bad money drives out good money has been so distorted, along with the theory that the quantity of money tied to inflation no longer stands the test of time. This was when foreign exchange was entirely based on the metal content of the coinage, for there was still no dominant financial capital of the world coming out of the Middle Ages.
Then came John Maynard Keynes, a mathematician, not an economist. What he observed was the essence of a recession or depression. As uncertainty arises about the future, people will hoard their money and NOT spend it. This is what Gresham observed: debasing the coinage under Henry VIII, people hoarded the old coinage and spent the debased. The money supply shrinks with the velocity of money. I have been buying hoards of coins over the years, generally from the 3rd century AD when the political situation of the Roman Empire was in chaos. People buried the money in times of uncertainty. This is a fundamental human nature aspect.
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I had sold Athenian Owls, which were also a hoard, during the uncertainty of the Peloponnesian War when Sparta defeated Athens. I had also offered a hoard of Roman Republican victoratii that also was a hoard from the uncertainty of the Punic War. We do not tend to find hoards from the good times. I would love to find a hoard of the Julio-Claudian period, but this was generally a stable period in Roman history. The amount of hoards from that period is limited. But hoards are also a snapshot of what was in circulation at that moment in time. When the eruption of Vesuvius buried Pompei, one of the most common coins discovered was still the Marc Antony legionary denarii from about 100 years prior.
What Trump does NOT understand, nor does any of his economic advisors, is that inflation can also be caused by asset shortages or a speculative boom and currency declines causing inflation. What Trump is going to be slapped in the face with is currency inflation. A number of reasons can cause a decline in a currency. What Hoover did not understand was the 1931 sovereign defaults in Europe sent the dollar higher. This was MISUNDERSTOOD and led to the tariffs because foreign wheat was then cheaper than domestic. What Trump fails to comprehend is that the political turmoil in Canada, mixed with 25% tariffs, can send the C$ down to new lows and test even the 46-50 cents level. That would be a 27.5% decline in the C$, negating his idea of tariffs.
Neither Trump nor RFK will call me in until a crisis.
Once in power, nobody admits a mistake until there is no choice!
This will be just one day dealing with how the world truly works. We won’t have the typical gourmet food or the cocktail party that hotels charge just $100 a head for cocktails. We are trying to reduce costs so the next generation can afford to attend and make like-minded friends perhaps for life. But we will also have live streaming worldwide. They can watch even from China and Russia. It seems we are not blocked around the world. We must speak to the hotel to see when we can get space. I am thinking about between April and May. The cost will be affordable since there will be no forecasting reports, lunches, and dinners.
Posted originally on Feb 1, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You mentioned your two dogs and how they know hundreds of words but have different personalities. I believe you said they have the same emotions of love, fear, and hate as humans. Do you think that animals have the same emotional capacity as humans? Are their minds functioning the same as ours in your quest to create AI? Yet you say AI can never achieve that same emotional aspect of life.
KW
ANSWER: Absolutely. Here is a video of animals who bond with humans, from lions to rhinos and elephants. There is something that not only we possess but most animals. I do not believe this can ever be created with code. I can mimic an emotional response. YOu curse at the computer, and it can curse back. But there is no deep “feeling” that emerges. I can even create codes that given the computer vision so it can recognize you from someone else. But again, there is no emotional bond. That is the stuff of movies.
Ronald Lee Wyden, a Democrat from Oregon, dares to call RFK a fraud when, in fact, according to Open Secrets, he took $1,207,873 from the Pharmaceutical Industry and will vote against RFK, Jr. because I do not believe that Wyden is representing the people of Oregon, but Big Pharma. There is no question that people have died from the COVID-19 Vaccines—countless stories on the side effects of blood clots. My lawyer suffered from that and can no longer fly. I have one fellow who works for me, and his family cannot get any vaccine. They have a severe reaction to even a flu shot. The simple fact is that we are all NOT the same. Some had no problems, and for others, it was a nightmare. The state should by no means MANDATE any health procedure. They argue that a woman’s body is their own, so abortion is her right, but it ends there. Our bodies are not our own when it comes to vaccines since Big Pharma pays our politicians well to have no liability and mandatory compliance. Wyden changes his position, it seems, based on the money flow.
Watching the actions of Ronald Lee Wyden was revolting. This is a conflict of interest, and he should NOT be on any such committee if not in prison for the appearance of selling his vote to the highest bidder. Like Trump’s family issuing crypto, sorry, it is a conflict of interest as Hunter Biden was banking on his dad’s position. This is just sleazy. Trump should have shut down his family just as the Senate should bar anyone taking money from Big Pharma and voting on anything that impacted the people funding them. Wyden has been in office since he was 31 years old.
Posted originally on Jan 31, 2025 by Martin Armstrong
Two major unions representing U.S. government employees have filed a lawsuit challenging President Donald Trump’s effort to reclassify up to 50,000 federal workers and make it easier to fire them. The American Federation of Government Employees and American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees said Trump’s executive order improperly attempted to block a Biden administration rule shielding federal workers from being stripped of job protections to prevent Trump from draining the SWAMP or daring to reduce the size of government.
This is the famous cartoon on the Spoils System in politics by Thomas Nast with a statue of Andrew Jackson on a pig, which is over “fraud”, “bribery”, and “spoils”, eating “plunder”. This appeared in Harper’s Weekly on April 28, 1877, p. 325. The Spoils System has been a practice in politics whereby after winning an election, the victor gives government jobs to their supporters, friends /cronies, and relatives/nepotism as a reward for helping in their victory. As the saying that emerged with Jackson as he sought to drain the SWAMP of the establishment of the old Federalists entrenched in the North, “to the victor belong the spoils.”
Many viewed the spoils system as introduced by President Andrew Jackson after winning the 1828 election. However, like Trump, the 1828 election followed a rigged election in 1824, and Jackson’s inauguration was seen as a significant coup in Washington. It was Jackson who shut down the Bank of the United States because he viewed it as controlled by the Federalists. That ended up leading to the Panic of 1837 and the Depression known then as the Hard Times and state sovereign defaults of the 1840s.
When Jackson won the 1828 election because of the shenanigans in 1824, his 1829 inauguration became a wild spectacle. The people also voted for Jackson to drain the SWAMP as he became their champion against the Deep State. Washington, D.C., residents were ill-prepared for the wild scene when Jackson’s supporters poured into the city like the January 6th protesters. Some commentators referred to it as an enormous mass of people to an invading barbarian horde pillaging Rome. This regional bias eventually manifested in the Civil War by 1860, which was 31.4 years later.
Massachusetts senator Daniel Webster commented: “I never saw anything like it before,” he wrote to a relative. “Persons have come 500 miles to see Genl Jackson; & they really seem to think that the Country is rescued from some dreadful danger.” Of course, Webster was very much part of the regional conflict.
It is not hard to see why Jackson was blamed for inventing the Spoil System of cronies. In truth, the corruption involved in the Spoils System actually began during its Colonial history for it was introduced into U.S. politics during the very first administration of George Washington. He was a Federalist and stuffed the government with people who agreed, which was really against the Constitution, ignoring State’s Rights.
On August 3rd, almost 13,000 air traffic controllers went on strike after negotiations with the federal government to raise their pay and shorten their workweek became excessive. Across the country, some 7,000 flights were canceled. That very day, President Reagan called the strike illegal and threatened to fire any controller who had not returned to work within 48 hours. Robert Poli, president of the Professional Air-Traffic Controllers Association (PATCO), was found in contempt by a federal judge and ordered to pay $1,000 a day in fines.
Then, on August 5th, 1981, President Reagan carried out his threat and fired 11,359 air traffic controllers who were in violation of his order for them to return to work. The executive action, regarded as extreme, set the boundaries of the president. In addition, President Reagan declared a lifetime ban on the rehiring of the strikers by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). On August 17th, 1981, the FAA began accepting applications for new air traffic controllers, and on October 22nd, 1981, the Federal Labor Relations Authority decertified PATCO.
Given the filing of these lawsuits against Trump and the outcome of the Regan firing of air traffic controllers, the danger here with the unions is that this may be what Trump really wanted. A court ruling in his favor will allow the president to fire executive employees and reduce the size of the workforce just as any CEO of a private company. They can clearly establish precedents to expand presidential power to control the federal government. This would be a major victory for Trump.
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