Investors’ curiosity has peaked as central banks are increasing their gold purchases. We are not going back to a Bretton Woods type situation and that is not the issue. You must understand that gold is neutral. Central banks are buying gold because the Neocons have weaponized the dollar.
Russia was removed from the SWIFT system, and private citizens’ assets were confiscated. When Russian assets were removed from SWIFT, a threat to the world was issued to say, “Hey, if you don’t do what we tell you to do, we will take you out of SWIFT.”
This is not the end of the dollar. Money continues to pour into US equities, particularly the Dow. Why? When the drum of war is beating, major institutions rush to move their money into a safe haven, which happens to be the US at this point in time. The big money is not purchasing start-up equities on the Nasdaq, for example, as they will not take that risk. Our computer model indicates the Dow will continue rising into 2032 as it remains one of the last safe havens.
The West has become extremely aggressive in its geopolitics. You simply do not buy the debt of your enemy. Central banks are buying gold because the USD is political.
There is a stark difference between short-term and long-term bonds. The central banks have zero control over the short-term and that is how this whole QE fiasco began as central banks began purchasing long-term debt in an attempt to reduce long-term interest. Why would you buy long-term when war, the primary driver of inflation, is looming? This is a serious situation that the neocons who have weaponized the dollar simply do not understand.
COMMENT #1: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to thank you. I am a converted gold bug. Your comment about how gold was $875 in 1980 and the Dow was 1,000 compared to today cannot be ignored. I can see now that it is more of a religion than reality, like climate change absent the science. I was at Starbucks, and Generation X before me just paid with his phone. They have no idea what money is and have no idea of precious metals.
I just want to say thank you. I now understand they are a hedge when confidence collapses and we are moving closer to that period day by day.
Thank you for the education
Kerry
QUESTION #1: Hello; If a house cost $4,000 in 1930, then it cost 200 x 1930 $20 gold pieces to buy the house. A $20 dollar gold piece @ 33.4 grams of gold today would be $471,000. So not much change except the standard house in 1930 could have used some updates. Wonder if property corellates to gold? Just for fun; Rob
ANSWER #1: You have to be careful, for this is usually a selective analysis put out as a sales pitch. A loaf of Wonder Bread was 10 cents in 1930, and it’s about $5 today. That is the standard long-term inflation. This key is that everything rises and falls.
Yes, it’s good to be diversified. Just be careful with the gold bugs. They often tell you to sell everything, for only gold will rise. That is just not true, and I have seen so many people lose a fortune on that advice.
QUESTION #2: Mr. Armstrong, could you explain how futures markets affect the spot price/the market price? We hear of futures markets manipulating, affecting the market price, but how is i ask? I heard that because of the futures markets we then get a different perception of the market price. Meaning that if the futures are trading lower, than the market price will get lower or if the futures are trading higher than the market price will trade higher. Is this true?? Regards, Pietro
ANSWER #2: It is a fool’s argument to try to explain why gold peaked at $875 in 1980, with the Dow Jones Industrials at 1,000. Today, gold is $2,000, and the Dow is 33,000. So, to explain why gold has not risen, it must be manipulated.
Futures provide liquidity to any commodity or market. Liquidity expands the market, and thus, more people get involved. If you closed the futures market, then the only way to trade gold would be in physical bullion. The number of investors would collapse. Moreover, producers need the futures market to sell forward to lock in a profit to produce. If a farmer plants a crop expecting to get the market price when planting and something happens when it goes to harvest, he can lose his shirt and be out of business. Future contracts are selling your crop when you plant it, and you are effectively selling the risk to someone else. Here is a futures contract from Babylon during the 19th century BC. This is the way markets have been able to function for thousands of years.
My mother always told me there is a time and place for everything. Eliminating the futures market would rapidly make gold untradable. Miners will not function if they always have to roll the dice, hoping gold will rise and not decline when they finish refining a lot. This is the same for farmers and even in funds management.
I was offered $60 billion to manage as a stock fund in the USA. Because there is a conflict between the SEC and the CFTC, the rule was I could not HEDGE more than 17% at the time, or that would change the definition to a futures fund from an equity fund. I declined because if I saw a crash coming, I would have to sell the stocks, for I would not be allowed to sell futures to cover the risk. That is why I, along with others, started the hedge fund industry back in the 1980s: when S&P500 futures began to trade, these two agencies were fighting over jurisdiction. It was IMPOSSIBLE to comply with the law under the SEC, for you would go to jail with the CFTC. Hence, it was the OVERREGULATION that created the hedge fund industry by force.
Futures are vital because they provide the liquidity to expand markets. Because gold is an international commodity, it CANNOT be manipulated to turn a bull market into a bear market. Even the manipulation claims against the bankers are standard in trading markets. They would know where all the stops are, and they would gun for them. There is always room for swings within any market, but you cannot take a bull market and make a bear market at will.
And just for the record, I have bought gold over the years. I bought a hoard of $20 gold pieces from a central bank. I have bought gold bars from the SS Central America that went down and caused the Panic of 1857. Gold and silver have their place in a diversified portfolio. NO PORTFOLIO should ever be 100% on one thing!
Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong |
Interview with GoldSeek Radio:
Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, reviews charts of the major indexes in real-time, noting “2024 could be a chaotic year.”
– Interest rates rise during boom periods.
“Yeah, I think people have to understand that the vast majority of analysis out there is all domestic. They’re just calling for the Fed and I think so many of them are talking about a major crash in 2024. What they never do is look outside the country. And honestly, if you look at the 3 indexes look at the Dow, the S&P, and then the NASDAQ, you’ll see the Dow leading.
And that is basically showing you that what’s going on here is international capital inflows. I mean, the more it’s getting crazy for wars just about everywhere. From Asia, you’re looking at the Middle East. You’re looking at Europe. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little bit and hedging their bets and they’re moving money to the States. That’s why the Dow has been rising, more so than you see. We have probably more institutional clients than anybody in the world and they’re all starting to wake up a little.
… but then again you have people just looking at the Fed and talking about ‘Oh, transparency.’ And is they only ever keep talking about old defense, going to ‘Lower rates, lower rates, lower rates.’
If you really look at it, objectively, interest rates always rise during boom periods, and they decline during recessions and depressions. We are looking at increased inflation, probably into 2028 caused by shortages and war. But you’re looking at a declining economic growth, so that ends up being more like the 1970s…and you’re looking there at what we call “Stagflation” where the inflation rate will be higher than economic growth.
– Increased inflation could erupt due to supply shortages and skirmishes. – Stagflation similar to the 70’s could soon come to the domestic economy.
“That was basically caused by OPEC raising the price of oil dramatically and that created a cost-push inflation. So everybody’s costs were rising dramatically. Anything that had to do with plastic, went up dramatically and that created eventually the inflationary boom between 1976 going into 1980. As for gold rose to $875, etc…I think gold was about a $100 in 1976 and it rose to about $400 but that was by December 1979, the last six weeks of the rally, which peaked in 1980 on January 21st. So from December to January 21st, that’s when Russia invaded Afghanistan. So it was the geopolitical stuff that took gold from $400 to $875. So it’s important to understand inflation is not the major driving power but inflation when war is around – that’s what broke Bretton Woods…it was the Vietnam War.”
– Funds may be flowing into the blue-chip Dow Jones 30 stocks from global unrest. – Geopolitical opinion and commentary.
Posted originally on Jan 14, 2024 By Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, My wife insists that I write to thank you for making me invest in stocks rather than gold. We split the money, and my wife invested in the Dow with your 2015 ECM turn, and I kept the gold. She beat me on the Dow since it closed in 2023, up about 250%. After reading your input into history, am I correct that this argument of fiat currency is erroneous? It seems like civilizations have risen and fallen, no matter the money system at the time. Could you elaborate on whether this is true or false?
Disappointed goldbug.
ANSWER: Not many men would admit their wives beat them in investments. Many things have been used for money, from bronze and clam shells to emergency paper currency. Those who insist that somehow gold is the only thing that is money do not know their history, and in the process, they have been misled seriously, which actually prevents them from seeing the real problem. Bitcoin is not money nor a medium of exchange because not everyone will accept it. A medium of exchange has to be something that everyone accepts.
There is a common theme that runs through ALL forms of money, and it has NOTHING to do with what is being used as the medium of exchange.
If we are objective, even metal has varied. Bronze was valuable because it could be used to make a tool or a weapon – hence the Bronze Age. It was first used in an ingot form. However, it was cast in the shape of an earlier form of money – sheepskins. Thus, the story of Jason is in search of the golden fleece.
The Romans cast bronze into ingots, and the value was equal to one head of cattle. The first coins of Rome are also bronze, beginning with just lumps and then taking the standardized weight and shape. In Turkey, they began with what was known as electrum, which was a natural alloy mixture of gold and silver found in the riverbeds.
The official first coins were struck in Lydia, modern-day Turkey. This was the first “fiat” money since it was declared a standard value by the king, who applied the image of a lion. This was his badge, certifying its value and weight.
For example, there was a metal that was second to gold, which was really just brass. Orichalcum was the legendary metal of Atlantis, whose buildings were said to have been clad in this rare metal that looked similar to gold. Orichalcum was mined in Atlantis in ancient times, but by the time of Plato, this metal was unknown. Orichalcum was a legend by Plato’s time when he mentioned it in his story of Atlantis in the Critas of Plato. Critias (460–403 BC) says that Orichalcum had been considered second only to gold in value and had been found and mined in many parts of
Nero also experimented with issuing the traditional bronze coinage in Orichalcum (brass). In order to render the Dupondius distinguishable from its half-denomination, Roman As a radiate crown was added to this denomination, leaving the traditional laurel wreath style portrait for the Roman As. The Dupondius reform prevailed until the end of Dupondius’s regular issues, while the experiment in brass died out following Hadrian (117-138AD).
A gold standard will not solve the problem because it is NOT what is being used as money but the system. If governments issued platinum coins and claimed these are worth $100,000 each, that is also fiat, where the government decrees the value. This common thread that runs through everything is the trustworthiness of the government. As long as we have socialism, where politicians promise things, they will always create more money to accomplish that. DEBT = MONEY that pays interest. People also point to the Fed and overlook the fact that it is Congress that creates the money by issuing debt that can be used as an asset in a loan.
Gold will not solve the problem. We need political reform FIRST and then worry about constraining government thereafter.
Posted originally on Dec 29, 2023 By Martin Armstrong |
Several US states are considering legislation to reclassify gold and silver as money rather than commodities. Bills filed in Oklahoma and Missouri aim to eliminate state capital gains taxes on the sale of gold and silver, and to treat these metals as currency. Other states like Arkansas and Utah are also considering introducing similar legislation. The proposed laws also include provisions to authorize the state to invest in gold or silver and to prevent state entities from seizing gold or silver bullion.
These measures are seen as steps toward reducing barriers to using gold and silver as money and lowering the investment cost of precious metals. On the plus, gold and silver may be used in transactions without an additional fee. If I purchase something for $100, I am not charged an additional fee for using USD – but let’s not give the government any ideas. Proponents of the bill say the Federal Reserve has a monopoly on our banking system, and deeming precious metals legal tender would prevent the central bank from having total control over fiat currency.
Not so fast – the government will not relinquish their control over the monetary system. They have told us their plan for digital currencies and deeming gold and silver currency will only make it easier for the government to confiscate. The entire problem that people do not grasp with regard to any return to a gold standard is that if the money supply is FIXED in any way, that necessitates the collapse of SOCIALISM. The two are directly linked. Politicians only know how to run with deficits. “Vote for me and I will give you everything!”
The Bretton Woods gold standard collapsed because they FIXED the price of gold at $35, but they continued to print money far beyond the supply of gold at that fixed price. Then there is the largely ignored business cycle. No matter what the money might be, there will be boom times when the value of money declines and the asset values rise. There is a natural course of a business cycle to the economy you cannot flatline or eliminate no matter how many schemes you invent from central banks, Keynesianism, Monetarism, Socialism, or Communism. It just cannot be accomplished.
The problem is not the physical money we use. The problem is that governments continually abuse their power and recklessly dive deeper into debt with each new spending package. Bretton Woods collapsed, as did every attempt to create any monetary system of some fixed value. Yes, they are not considering a gold-backed system here, but deeming gold and silver legal tender misses the mark. Gold and silver were hedges AGAINST government. The people have been able to use commodities to trade amongst themselves since the dawn of civilization. This legislation permits the government to intervene and naturally impose regulations.
The year 2025 will bring a turning point in Marxism as we reach the midpoint of the 224-year cycle (1913-2025).
Head of Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong, outlines his gold market projections in lieu of unraveling geopolitical conditions.
Armstrong says, “You have a lot of uncertainty and confusing trends developing. When this materializes in people understanding what’s happening…the dollar and gold would go up together. Because you are looking at a flight of capital. Some people want to buy gold, some people want to get out of Europe, etc. Not everybody does the same thing. The two trends will come together. That’s what our computer is projecting, and it’s happened many times in history.”
– Epic gold breakout ahead! – Convergence of economic themes – recession next year and escalating conflicts? – Comments on crude oil. – On the cusp of WWIII by 2025? – How to foment de-escalation within the ranks of the power-hungry elite. – Might societal decay accelerate? – Tangible assets are key to surviving collapse. – 90% silver coins remain an ideal survival investment.
COMMENT: Mr. Armstrong, I just wanted to say thank you so much. I was listening to the perpetual gold analysts for years who never changed their tune. It was always buy, buy, buy, and the dollar would go to zero any day now. They always looked at the Fed and the balance sheet, and when they were wrong, they blamed the bankers for manipulating gold.
I sold out in 2013, and you said gold would decline for two years. It did not crack $1,000 as you hoped, but it elected two monthly bullish reversals within two months of that low, and you said it would rally to test $2,000. You also projected that the stock market would outperform gold, and contrary to all the gold bugs, you said they would rise together. Nobody made that forecast.
I had two friends who did not listen to you. They took home equity loans to buy more gold and did not sell in 2013. The gold bugs ruined the marriages of my former friends, and both lost their houses. We no longer talk because they lost everything when I followed you. The stock market did much better. People need to understand that when you forecast the world, you see things are all connected.
Thank you so much for the education.
ED
REPLY: I am glad you understand that you cannot forecast a single market to the exclusion of everything else. The world economy is all connected. As I have said, without World War I & II, the USA would still be an agrarian society. The capital shifted, transforming the USA into the world’s financial capital. The problems with the goldbugs’ view of the world is that:
They have broken rule #1 of investing – NEVER MARRY THE TRADE.
They are prejudiced by old economic theories that have not been updated since the 16th century.
When Sir Thomas Gresham (c. 1519 – 1579) devised his Law that bad money drives out good, the metal content determined foreign exchange on the Amsterdam Exchange. Today, the backing of a currency has returned to the days of the Roman Empire. Rome was militarily superior, as is the case of the United States, when it became the #1 military power after WWII. Yet more importantly, Rome had a consumer-based economy, so everyone was proud to be Roman, for it gave them access to the largest consumer market in history. The Emperor Marcus Aurelius (161-180 AD) had even sent an ambassador to meet with the emperor of China. The United States currency is NOT backed by gold or any commodity. It is supported by a consumer-based economy, the same as Rome.
India traded with Rome. That is where the silk from China moved through India to Rome. However, India was also the supplier of dyes and spices. Rome’s coinage was worth more than the metal content of the time of Gresham during the 16th century, for there was no significant military power nor a consumer-based economy. For over 200 years, Southen India imitated Roman gold and silver coins; at times, they even weighed more in gold than genuine coins.
Here we have an imitation gold aureus of Septimus Severus (193-211AD), which weighs 11.3 grams compared to 7.1 grams for a genuine Roman aureus. That meant that the Indian imitation was nearly 60% heavier. The coinage had a premium because of the consumer-based economy in Rome, and that attributed a premium to the coinage that had NOTHING to do with the metal content. Southern India NEVER issued their own gold coinage. They imitated that of Rome. Today, many emerging markets use the US dollar and borrow in dollars.
The world has changed – I hate to tell them. The old theory of the Quantity of Money does not hold up under any correlation. The nonsense that gold rises with inflation has ruined many and bankrupted others. The central banks have used this theory supported by Keynesian Economics, and it has utterly failed. We have ballooning national debts thanks to Austrian Economics, which propagated the idea that borrowing rather than printing would be less inflationary because you were not creating more money – you were supposed to be draining the money supply. Everything is connected. If a foreign investor buys property in the United States, his money, be it in euro, yen, or yuan, is converted to dollars, and the domestic “real” money supply increases, for the seller, now has that cash to spend. This is not accounted for in any of these antiquated theories.
It is time we reassess how the modern economy of the 21st century truly works. Currency pegs, gold standards, and schemes like the G5 Plaza Accord, which tried to lower the value of the dollar to reduce the trade deficit being oblivious to the fact that they also lowered the value of foreign investment in the dollar, have done nothing but create confusion and economic chaos. Central banks have nothing other than the old-fashioned 16th-century theory of the quantity of money to play with.
Keynes added to the chaos by advocating, like Marx, that the government had the power to control the economy. Keynes advocated the end of Laissez-Faire in 1926. Yet, before he died, Keynes admitted that he was wrong. Nobody paid attention because once the government seized that power, they refused to hand it back to the people.
Gold is NOT a hedge against inflation. It declined for 19 years after 1980 when inflation rose, as did the national debt. Gold is a hedge against the government. That will be why it will make new highs on the 4th run – not because of the Fed or the CPI.
I am finishing up a new book on this crisis in theory. Not only have the godbugs been wrong, but so have the central bankers and those in government. It is time we take a closer look at how things truly function that apparently, like Thomas Gresham, it takes someone to observe reality from a trader’s perspective.
There is no question that the real problem here is that the financial system is collapsing. These morons have been borrowing since World War II with ZERO intention of ever paying off the debt. They are running out of buyers. Attacking Russia and China has divided the world economy, which may be the Neocons’ goal, but they do not care about the country or the people. They are just sick individuals engaging in hate crimes. Now they are running out of buyers for their endless borrowing. They NEED to default on the debt, and it is what Schwab is really saying you will own nothing and be happy.
Do not forget that Christine Lagarde, who is now the head of the European Central Bank, got where she is because of Schwab. She was on his board of trustees. The same is true about the head of the IMF and the head of the EU. The World Economic Forum has infiltrated everything. They are pushing for the end of any possible right to vote. We, the people, are far too stupid to understand the world as only they can. After all, they see themselves as a demigod since they are above everyone else.
Democracy is how Trump came to power. They are not about to allow a non-career politician to ever take power. This is why they are attacking RFJ. Democracy becomes evil “populism” when the people vote against the establishment. This is also why they are doing everything possible against Trump. If that does not work, they will assassinate him as they did to JFK.
If you are going to play poker, you better know who you are playing against. Do they bluff? Can you tell? Those who blindly think that somehow cryptocurrencies will be the alternative of CBDCs are too caught up in their own BS to open their eyes. This is all about total control. There is NO WAY that these people will allow any private cryptocurrency to complete. In addition, the controls that Lagarde is talking about will also be the shutdown the purchase of gold and silver post-2024. This is a game for ultimate power. That is what we face going into 2032. They will fail, for freedom will surface, and we are looking at massive civil unrest and, ultimately, revolutions worldwide. Any alternative will threaten their power.
Will the Brics launching a gold backed currency be the catalist for bankrupting 3rd world economies? Or is it rising interest rates on their debt?
Tks for all the light u share in a confusing economic landscape.
Cbeers .baldy
ANSWER: It is unlikely that we are looking at a BRICS single currency like the euro, for that would require a central monetary authority, surrender of sovereignty as in Brussels, end any possibility of QE, etc. We would need to completely collapse the idea of Keynesian Economics insofar as it has evolved, allowing deficit spending.
There is no special magic to gold. It was first restricted to only kings, for it was considered to be the tears from the sun god. As more gold was discovered, it began to be used for the jewelry of wealthy aristocrats. Then it became used as money in its natural form, known as electrum, a natural alloy of gold mixed with silver.
Then they refined the gold electrum and created the first bimetallic coinage around 560 BC. This required a sufficient supply of gold to create a money supply. As the quantity increased, the value of gold declined relative to both silver as well as commodities in general – inflation.
The real argument behind gold as a backing is that its quantity is limited. However, over the centuries, the silver/gold ratio has fluctuated anywhere from 8:1 to 120:1. From this perspective, the real objective here is to prevent the government from creating money at will. Thanks to Keynesian Economics, governments have the power to create money at will, allowing them to retain power and exert it in their endless wars thanks to the Neocons.
The real objective here with the issue of BRICS is that both Russian and China object to the dollar being the reserve currency in the middle of geopolitical tension. Yet the Biden Administration has undermined everything by removing Russia from SWIFT. That set in motion the collapse of globalization, and it has shown to the world that the US now controls the SWIFT system, which renders it no longer politically neutral.
This is where the IMF is trying to desperately move in for the kill to replace the dollar with their electronic digital currency. This is really no better because the IMF will also play political games. Strauss-Kahn was appointed managing director of the IMF on September 28, 2007, with the backing of then–President of France Nicolas Sarkozy. He was set up, and in New York, they came up with a maid in a hotel who claimed he tried to rape her. They wanted to remove him became he was independent. He served in that capacity until he was forced to resign on May 18, 2011. All the charges were later dismissed for the lack of any credibility. Yet, his replacement was Obama’s friend Christine Legard, a board member of the economic terrorist organization, the World Economic Forum. She was installed in the IMF and immediately threatened all the tax havens to turn over all their secret accounts so they would be removed from SWIFT. She also threatened the Vatican.
We are clearly staring into the eyes of a major global sovereign debt default. This is also why they are pushing for war. They plan on holding another Bretton Woods II, and the IMF will make its pitch to rule the world. This is all part of the scheme for this one-world government.
QUESTION: Do you think the BRICS would create a gold-back currency as proposed by Russia?
SJ
ANSWER: The Neocon has directed the Biden administration to remove Russia from SWIFT. Their single-minded goal is destroying the world economy, but they do not care. They think they will conquer Russia and China and dominate the world so they will worry about the monetary system afterward.
You have to understand that if the BRICS followed that directive and created a single gold-back currency, they would have to end any idea of international trade. This proposal is understandable given the hostility of the United States from the Neocons, who are now in charge. Congress is oblivious to what is happening, and the American public is arguing over Transgender destroying the family unit.
This is not some simple one-dimensional idea that we create a limited-backed currency. That will be DEFLATIONARY and, at the same time, promote civil war in the United States. Politicians cannot run for office, promising endless gifts, forgiving student loans, etc. You cannot have deficits. This would NECESSITATE the end of Marxism once and for all.
This idea of a gold-back currency requires political change on a grand scale. That is coming. Post-2032 will be a new monetary and political system. Before then, they are pushing CBDC, and they will restrict what you can buy or sell, and this is all to retain power because they KNOW they are losing it. But in the process, they are destroying everything. The people who voted for Biden had no clue that they were voting for a coup and the ultimate destruction of Western civilization as we have known it.
I buy gold, but I also understand the game. I do not want gold-back currency; I prefer gold to remain as a hedge against the government. If they back the currency with gold, this time, they will be knocking down every door to confiscate it all.
These Neocons have already divided the world economy in two. They think they will conquer the world. The enemy is within.
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