The Petrodollar – Another Fake News Invention?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold Re-Posted Jan 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The entire theory of the Petrodollar dares back to the collapse of Bretton Woods and the subsequent oil embargo protesting US support for Israel and the price shock of raising prices. Those were the days when everyone was obsessed with gold and the whole idea of a floating currency that was popular to say will crash and burn for money had to be backed but some commodity. Those were indeed the days when that theory was very popular and it dominated the thinking process of the 1970s.

Here is an advertisement from my past days as a market maker in gold during 1970s to about 1983. I too believed in all those theories until the crash came in 1975. I too had bought into all that nonsense. Gold was going to be legalized in the United States in 1975 for the first time since 1934. Being a very large dealer domestically and internationally, all my European clients were talking up the scenario that gold was going to $500 if not $1000 once Americans could buy.

Because Teddy Roosevelt was an ancient coin collector, when Franklin Roosevelt, who was a stamp collector, recognized that gold coins existed from ancient times thanks to Teddy, he confiscated gold on deposit at the banks but exempted collector coins. That was the reason why we have rolls of $20 gold coins trading to this day.

As a result, those who were really believers in gold would buy common date American $20 gold coins by the roll in those days. So when the Europeans were talking themselves into gold was going to explode in 1975 as soon as it was legalized in the United States, as a dealer, I never got a single call about buying gold from anyone other than those who already owned it. The gold crowd was only looking at gold and had no idea that any American who wanted gold bought it in coin form. They were cheering gold without understanding the reality of the marketplace.

I went short gold in January 1975 not using even technical analysis. The hype was so much and I knew that there was no line standing at the door to buy gold. My gut feeling was that gold was going to decline – not rally. I saw that in 1970 when the two-tier gold market they created in 1968 saw gold drop below the official price of $35 in 1970 – something that was not supposed to happen.

Even the Senate of New Jersey came to me and I wrote the law on sales tax regarding gold in 1974. Gold peaked in December 1974 at $197.50. It fell to $97.70 while inflation continued but economic growth declined and they called it STAGFLATION. I learned back then that all the scenarios and theories that gold rises with inflation and the dollar would not survive without some backing. I was confronted by the reality that exposes all these theories to be a throwback to times long since passed. This all only inspired me, even more, to investigate everything in detail. By 1979, I published what I called the WHY REPORT. I later republished this in 1981 and again in 1983.

To explain the survivability of the dollar since it rose between 1972 and 1976 against the British pound, with the collapse of Bretton Woods, the rise in gold, and the entire oil embargo, that is when they came up with this idea that the dollar was backed by oil. They had to explain why their theories were wrong just as they changed global warming to climate change to explain away global cooling.

All the theories were wrong. The dollar rose, and inflation soared, as did gold. None of this made sense under their theories. Something had to be done. It became obvious that it was impossible to make investment decisions based upon these theories that people just made up to sell gold which are still being used today. I also remembered that in January 1970, gold fell in the London market to $34.70. Gold was not supposed to sell below the Bretton Woods fixed exchange rate of dollars to gold. It was like being smacked in the face and told to wake up!

Without question, the dealers could not sell gold if it did not rise with inflation and against the dollar since it was no longer backed by anything. They had to invent something new. That is when the sophistry specialists stepped in and boy did they succeed in bullshitting everyone.

The explanation was ah ha – the dollar is really backed by oil because it is priced in dollars. That’s it. It is really the Petrodollar! Suddenly the dollar became de facto-backed by oil. They needed an explanation to explain why all the old theories were wrong. They sold this theory and it made the front cover of Newsweek. Everyone said YES! That must be the reason. OPEC priced oil in dollars! Naturally, everything was priced in dollars because, under the fixed exchange rate of Bretton Woods, everything from wheat and corn to copper and gold was all priced in dollars.

Many people are now calling for the collapse of the dollar all because Saudi Arabia has confirmed that they will be selling oil in various currencies. Hence, relying on this old fictitious their of the Petrodolarr from the ’70s, they are telling everyone the dollar will collapse and gold will soar. They never get tired of kicking the same theories down the road without EVER just once being honest and looking if they have any validity whatsoever.

The value of any currency is NOT some commodity. It is the people. You can have all the gold in the world, but if the people do not produce, it means nothing. Indeed, Russia had the largest gold reserve of any nation ahead of the Communist Revolution. They took the gold reserves and hid them so the communists would never find them. They are still missing to this very day. Likewise, Germany and Japan has no gold reserves post-WWII yet they rose to the strongest economies in their respective regions. How is that possible? It is very simple. The true backing of a currency is the total productive capacity of its people. The US became the largest economy in the world NOT  because of gold, but because the US had a consumer-based economy built of freedom rather than Marxism as the problem with Europe. China, Japan, and Germany, all focused on the old-world mercantile economic model. Produce to sell to someone else. They failed to follow the strength of the United States in building a consumer economy.

China understands the difference and has shifted to develop that type of economy whereas Germany oppresses its people with high taxes on its citizens to sell manufactured goods to everyone else. That is why they wanted the Euro to expand their European economic marketplace.  Germany’s high taxes have put it near the bottom insofar as the German people have less net worth than Italians. The more Marxist the country, the lower the economic standard of living.

Who is America’s Enemy? Russia or the other Political Party?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jan 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

In writing the Greatest Bull Market in History, published in 1986, I had to do all the original research. I read all the newspapers daily year after year to come to the realization that attitudes shift back and forth. It became very obvious that before FDR and the introduction of Marxism to the United States, the focus was on markets. With Roosevelt, he weaponized the Federal Reserve and just about everything else to further his agenda. Roosevelt demonized Pierre du Pont for he made a lot of money providing the weapons for World War I. Roosevelt called him the Merchant of Death, but then suddenly needed him again for World War II.

The nation is dividing significantly. This is why the United States cannot stand divided. The latest poll demonstrates that the forecast made by our computer is unsurpassed. The question presented was who is our enemy?

For Democrats, the top three results named Russia (31 percent) as our “greatest enemy,” followed by Republicans (26 percent) and China (16 percent).

For Republicans, the top three are China (35 percent), Russia (33 percent), and Democrats (12 percent).

We now are starting to see that we have an enemy within – the opposite political party. This is absolutely essential for it confirms the forecasts of our computer that have been common since our 2011 WEC.

The Real-World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Forecasts Re-Posted Jan 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty,

Your point about foreign money buying US assets and then adding back money to domestic circulation is quite profound. The inflows from Asia, the Middle East, and Europe are enormous. These monies had to come from somewhere. They were a result of globalization, accumulating dollar assets offshore, or having to convert their currencies into US dollar assets. This was never taught in any of my economics, trade, or finance classes back in the 1970’s. Then, the US economy was still a manufacturing-based one and the concept of money taught then was still the Fed and how it conducted OPEN MARKET OPERATIONS. Today, the Fed competes with so many forces it can’t possibly do the job it was designed to do, which was to make the money supply elastic across the US…forget about international money flows, which today are so large, their vast team of financial experts can’t possibly measure much less track them.

The money supply and what is taught in schools are the problem. They have these terms for it: M1, M2, and M3…when in fact in a debt-based economy, money is debt, not paper. What gives it utility is the ability to facilitate exchange, But at its core, the key is confidence in the country that issues it and the citizens who produce the wealth that backs it.  The politicians in the US have worked to destroy the currency by consistently abusing it, by spending money without limit, and by convincing people, there is no cost in doing so as long as the US fights every war and defends open markets.

I agree with you that the US dollar will be the last man standing. Because every other country’s currency is simply inferior and the countries that issue it don’t produce enough wealth to consistently make it competitive in world markets.

MS

REPLY: I know. People want to argue with me based on what they read in school or what the press reports. I have been taught by my clients. Being called in to solve problems around the world, I have been fortunate to see how capital really moves. I have met with many central banks, and the IMF, testify before Congress on these subjects, and even attended an OPEC meeting and was called into China for the Asian Currency Crisis. I have been called in by heads of state and summoned by Presidential Commission investigating Crashes. I was even asked if I would teach at one of the most prestigious universities in the world and when I asked why I was told that they “know what they teach doesn’t work.”

Our major clients know this. It takes perhaps someone with experience like you to grasp the reality of the world economy and how it truly functions. We are plagued by Marxist ideas for every economist then thinks that their job is to manipulate society to create the perfect world. Here is Larry Summers saying you cannot predict the economy and if you could, then everyone would follow it and make it so. This is the problem with academics. It is all theory and no real-world experience. This is why they have accused me of manipulating the world because if the forecast is correct, then it’s because I influenced it with our clients. That is why the bankers told the CFTC I had to be silenced. They wanted to manipulate the world, and when they lost, it was always my fault.

Uniparty Peace or Violence? Ray DiLorenzo 


Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable  –  John F. Kennedy Is violent or peaceful revolution on the horizon?  The United States of America as the ‘Great Experiment’ in self-government is failing.  While people slept, elites have been allowed to take over, not in governing, but in ruling.  Elections are awash in fraud.  Government institutions are seemingly impotent in applying checks and balances…corruption is overflowing.  Our culture has been pushed to decline by a godless social ideology.   The elite have taken an active part.  They know the world is about to collapse or be changed, but they are prepared, lifeboats at the ready, while the common folk stare at the cold water nearing their feet. People are now talking about the Uniparty.  Who are they?  What are they? 

The Uniparty is a resurrected buzzword for the joining of the Democrat and Republican establishment to obfuscate the will of the American people and push forward The Great Reset for their own interests.  The perfect marriage.  They’re a veritable fifth column working to destroy America as founded, sometimes competing with each other for lead turncoat.   It includes bureaucrats, members of the media, big business, and academia. The Republicans involved (RINOS) are closer to Democrats than members of their own party, but many are so far up in seniority they dare not leave the party. They have become an unrecognized third party, more recently, a party dedicated to stopping the outsider, Donald Trump.  

Make no mistake, Mitch McConnell would rather be Minority Leader in the Senate than just a senator in a majority Senate.  Why else would he withdraw millions in support of 2022 Senate candidates?  He’s responsible for trillions in spending under Biden and the inflation we are all feeling.  He is a RINO in the first degree, a failure and a disgrace. Polled Democrats and Republicans say they are not well represented in government (PRRI).  Except for a brief respite during the Trump presidency, the GOP hasn’t truly represented their voters for many years.

 The term Uniparty has been applied loosely from time to time from at least FDR, but Ralph Nader gave it proper context in 2000 meaning the Washington establishment.  People have used ‘Uniparty’ for various purposes, neo-liberalism, green causes and the like.  But, it is now used primarily by conservatives to attack the linking of mainstream Republicans and Democrats against America First or conservatism. The Uniparty is not on our side.  They are essentially socialist and globalist or just lowlifes looking for opportunity.  They are a government within a facade of a government.  They have an agenda, and you are not part of it. Even though George Washington abhorred the thought of political parties, the human trait of forming tribes was always too great.  And now the tribe mentality has crossed party lines.

Why does it seem like America is on a fast track to a destination no one voted for?  No matter how we vote, no matter what we say, no matter what we reject in the market place, the country seems headed over a cliff, and we have no control over it.  How is it that Trump was able to turn our country around a full 180 degrees in just a few short years?  We were being held back by past administrations. The Uniparty has put our country on autopilot and programmed that autopilot with no input from the people. 

With only 15% of Americans saying our country is going in the right direction (AP), did we really vote for increased crime, inflation, higher taxes, open borders, more drug trafficking, censorship, the elimination of any morality?  Do Americans want 4,000 page bills smelling of pig, made into law in the middle of the night that no one has read?  Do Americans want legislation written in the shadows? Why can’t we win an election that reflects the voter’s sentiment? 

Even Democrats are getting nervous (80%).  Why do Disney and Hollywood keep releasing movies that shock our moral conscience, even when they fail at the box office? Hollywood complains that their earnings have fallen, yet they continue to give us junk.  Why is it more profitable to stay home rather than work?  Why do politicians seem to ignore their constituents?  Why do the Biden, Clinton and Pelosi families get to break any law they want?  Why does Congress name bills that don’t reflect content.  Over a year and a half ago, Congress approved Biden’s $2.5 trillion infrastructure bill.  Where’s the infrastructure?  Now we find out that only 25% of the bill had anything to do with infrastructure. We did get a $20 million heated sidewalk.  

 Americans were lied to with regularity during the Bush and Obama administrations and now with Biden.  We were not allowed to get what we wanted during the Trump administration… nor were we allowed to get what we voted for in 2020 and in 2022.  Not allowed?  By whom?  The Globalist Uniparty.  Since Tucker Carlson reported that the CIA had a hand in the JFK assassination, one can imagine Uniparty implication.   Representative Constitutional Democracy is dead in America!  It is dead because the Uniparty has willed it so.  Their power is more important than your freedom and liberty. It is considered ultra-conservative today to preserve our nation as founded. There is, however, a cadre of Republicans like Andy Biggs (AZ), Bob Good (VA), Andy Harris (MD), Lauren Boebert (CO), Matt Gaetz (FL), Matt Rosendale (MT), Eli Crane (AZ), Chip Roy (TX), and Byron Donalds (FL) that are determined to fix Washington, and they will not be deterred.   They refuse to compromise with a political cartel that is destroying America, or Kevin McCarthy who has a Conservative Review score of 54% (F).  They are our last refuge in this government…true courage!  These Representatives are doing their job.  They are representing their constituents who put them there and standing for the principles for which this country was founded.  What a concept.

Maybe McCarthy will lower his head a bit in remorse for his past political transgressions.  We are no longer the same country. It’s in the hands of the globalist establishment and they are not about to let go.  Oh, they may have allowed us to win a thin margin in the House because the number of votes couldn’t be overcome, or they just want us to think everything is normal, but who is the Speaker of the House?… an establishment shill?   Trump was sold as the anti-establishment president, yet many of his appointments were head scratchers.  It was a swinging door.  It was no surprise that he couldn’t get the wall built or the swamp drained.  Paul Ryan was Uniparty. Trump constantly criticized Bush’s WMD/Iraq war and then he appointed Bolton as National Security Advisor.  Go figure. I am not an anti-Trumper, but during the Trump administration, it became apparent that it was going to take more than a president to fix this country.  Trump was checked at every turn until his checkmate in 2020. In times of emergency, some react quickly, some slowly, needing time to process, in many cases to their detriment.  Now that agents from Hell are working to undermine our nation, removing the foundation holding it up, people are still trying to process what is happening in spite of all the evidence. 

Time is running out. My great fear is that the Uniparty is going to continue destroying our country for their purposes without opposition. Elections now seem futile.  The judicial system has been neutered.  Congress and the judiciary does not act even when they have legal precedent. Partisanship has taken the place of patriotism. Too many of our patriot politicians are mealymouthed, instead of expressing outrage. Profiles in courage seems relegated to a remote past. The new Congress must take the lead in fixing our country.  If the people take the lead, it is not going to be pretty. If enough people feel they no longer have a say in our government, my fear is that they will push back, and push back hard.  Americans will put up with just so much. 

Admiral Yamamoto recognized this after Pearl Harbor and said with regret, “I fear all we have done is awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve.”    Will the Uniparty relent, give power back to the people and bring us peace and stability or hold on to their power with a jealous obsession and inevitably bring about violence?  What does history say?

18th Century Copper Riots & Private Money


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest Re-Posted Jan 6, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

During the reign of King George III (1760–1820) the first issue of halfpennies actually was not issued until 10 years after his accession to the throne in 1770. Consequently, the vast number of halfpennies in circulation were actually all counterfeits. Indeed, counterfeiting became rampant at first because there was a coin shortage. In 1771, it was declared that counterfeiting copper coins were to be a serious crime. Nevertheless, this really made no difference. Over the course of the next twenty years, the majority of copper coins in circulation were forgeries. Even in the American Colonies, a favorite pastime was to counterfeit British halfpennies.

Coppers of this type are thought to have been minted from mid-1787 through 1788 and probably into 1789. Interestingly, it appears Thomas Machin first produced halfpence dated to the contemporary year as well as examples backdated to 1778. As the mints in Connecticut, New Jersey, and Vermont failed, their equipment ended up at Machin’s Mills. Along with imitation British halfpence, Machin’s Mills also produced illegal Connecticut coppers and some legal Vermont Coppers, with most of their Vermont coins being struck over counterfeit Irish halfpence. The illegal coining operation continued at Machin’s Mills until around early 1790, which was longer than any of the legal mints in New England.

John Adams wrote to John Jay on April 10. 1787

“There is a vast sum in Circulation here of base Copper: to the amount of Several hundreds of thousands of Pounds. very lately these half Pence are refused every where: I suppose in Consequence of some Concerted Scheme. and it is supposed that they will be all purchased for a trifle and Sent to the United States where they will pass for good metal, and consequently our Simple Country men be cheated of an immense sum.2 The Board of Treasury, may be ordered with out the avowed Interposition of Congress, to give the alarm to our Citizens. and the seperate States would do well to prohibit this false Money from being paid or received.3

There was religious tension in Britain that still lingers to this day against Catholics. The Gordon Riots of 1780 took place over several days instigated by the anti-Catholic sentiment that again erupted with the passage of the Papists Act of 1778. That was an attempt to reduce official discrimination against British Catholics with the first legislation of the Popery Act of 1698. At the time, Lord George Gordon was the head of the Protestant Association. He argued that the law would enable Catholics to join the British Army and once in they would then use the army to plot treason. The protest became the excuse to burn people’s possessions, engaged in widespread rioting and looting, and they even used the opportunity to attack both Newgate Prison and the Bank of England. This was by far the most destructive riot in the history of London.

alexis-i-copper-riot-1662

From the mid-1600s, the world money supply was increased largely with copper coins. Russia, in particular, began to overvalue the copper coins. Money is always fiat for its value is typically dictated by the government. Overvaluing copper as in the 17th and 18th centuries, led to the same trend of overvaluing silver during the 19th century. The result of this monetary manipulation by the Russian government led to what became known as the Copper Riots of 1662.

The Russian government began producing copper coins and monetizing them to be of equal value to silver Kopek currency with an average weight of about half of a gram to meet expenses during the mini-Ice Age. The effort failed and silver vanished from circulation as people began hoarding them causing the entire economy to collapse. The copper money was naturally devalued in purchasing power and then there were widespread counterfeiting operations since the official value of the copper coinage became far in excess of the cost of production. The economy collapsed into a deflationary black hole as businesses shut down and unemployment rose dramatically. This erupted into what has become known as the Copper Riots of 1662.

The German bankers, the Fuggers, emerged as the leading Augsburg merchant-banker, who then provided loans to local rulers secured with the silver produce of their mines. The discovery of vast silver mines eventually led to the development in 1525 of the one-ounce silver coin that was the thaler from which we derive the name “dollar” as the alternative to the British pound after the American Revolution. The Joachimsthaler of the Kingdom of Bohemia was therefore the first thaler ideally with a weight of 31 grams or one troy ounce.

copper-panic-1662

As the silver mines were declining, the decline in the supply of silver led to the rise of copper coinage during the next century. This was not an isolated incident confined to Russia. There was a shortage of precious metals going into 1662. It was most profound in Russia. Nevertheless, the price of gold rose sharply from the low of 1655 in a 7-year bull market. This also reflected the deflationary atmosphere that was emerging thanks also to the mini-Ice Age which was peaking during the 17th century yet would last well into the mid-19th century.

It was Spain’s silver mine known as the great red Cerro Rico or ‘Rich Hill’ that towered over the city of Potosí in Bolivia. It had been mined since 1545 by drafted armies of natives. The great silver boom of c1575-1635 was when Potosí alone produced nearly half the world’s silver. But the mine’s yield was starting to decline. By 1678, native workers became scarce and the output of the mines began to dwindle. This was the royal mint that produced vast amounts of ‘pieces of eight’, which became the precursor of the American dollar. The shortage of labor ended up being augmented by purchasing African slaves from the Dutch who were buying them under the pretense that they were the spoils of war, which had been the justification for slaves from ancient times.

As the quantity of new silver in the world monetary system was declining, we begin to see the rise of copper coinage make its first appearance under James I of England (1603-1625). Due to a shortage of small coins, James I authorized John Harrington to issue tin-coated bronze farthings in 1613, and three main types were minted – the last being a slightly larger copper farthing without the tin coating. The first halfpenny was introduced in 1672 by Charles II (1660-1685). Charles II issued some copper halfpennies and farthings in 1672 for a single year but issued farthings again in 1873. The next issue of a farthing was struck in a tin but during 1684 and 1685.

However, in 1694 the Bank of England was established to raise money for King William III’s war against France. The Bank started to issue notes in return for deposits. Therefore, the money supply for the first time began to include paper currency. By 1695 the first fraud took place. The authorities prosecuted Daniel Perrismore for forging sixty £100 notes. This incident caused the Bank of England to introduce a watermark in the paper to prevent such fraud. This was further enhanced by making counterfeiting subjected to the death penalty as a felony resulting in the confiscation of all your wealth and throwing your family out of the street as well. Pictured here, is a protest imitation note. The law was being prosecuted on the mere possession of a forged note. The complaint here was that these one-pound notes were easily forged and innocent people were duped, thereby committing a felony by mere possession. They were being hanged with no proof that they created the forgery – merely that they possessed one. This was creating an incentive not to even accept the notes in transactions.

George I, II, and III all issued copper halfpennies. George III’s halfpennies were dated 1770 to 1772. The economic hard times no doubt contributed to the riots of 1780. After those events, at Newgate Prison in March 1782 a female alleged counterfeiter of halfpennies was hanged. She was then fixed to a stake and burned before the debtor’s door at Newgate prison in London as a further example of not to counterfeit.

In a letter to Lord Hawkesbury on April 14th, 1789, Matthew Boulton, who is considered the Grandfather of modern coinage,  commented

“In the course of my journeys, I observe that I receive upon average two-thirds counterfeit halfpence for change at toll-gates, etc., and I believe the evil is daily increasing, as the spurious money is carried into circulation by the lowest class of manufacturers, who pay with it the principal part of the wages of the poor people they employ”.

Boulton’s contract in 1797 to produce the Cartwheel pennies and twopences, thwarting the counterfeiters, did not extend to producing the halfpenny, though Boulton had expected that it would, and had prepared patterns of the appropriate size and weight in accordance with his ideas on the intrinsic value of copper coins. The reason the government gave for the omission of the denomination from the contract was that a large number of de facto halfpennies (including tokens and fakes) would be driven out of circulation and Boulton would be unable to produce enough coins to meet the demand that would ensue.

To avoid being hung for counterfeiting and burned at the stake, there was a multitude of halfpenny tokens. Many were of a political nature as this one complaining about the cost of bread. The government yielded to the private halfpenny tokens which became the majority of the small change. The overall public demand for legal halfpennies soon forced the government to change its mind, and in 1798 a contract was issued to Boulton for him to produce halfpennies and farthings dated 1799.

Interestingly, it was also at this time when inflation sent the price of copper rising, and consequently, the weight of the coins was reduced slightly, which resulted in them not being as popular as expected. In 1806 a further 427.5 tons of copper was struck into halfpennies by Boulton, but the price of copper had risen again and the weight was even less than the 1799 issue. This time, however, there was no unfavorable reaction from the public, so perhaps the national obsession with “intrinsic value” had run its course.

This was a very curious period where private money dominated the money supply for halfpennies. There are other periods where this has emerged in history primarily due to the shortage of real official money. One of the earliest such periods was during the reign of the Roman Emperor Tiberius (14-37AD).

Tiberius was legendary to be a frugal emperor. His deliberate contraction in creating new money led to the Financial Panic of 33AD. As far as Quantitative Easing, that too was nothing new. Tiberius offered loans INTEREST-FREE, but they had a limitation of three years. This was to prevent people from being forced to sell their estates further depressing land values.

There was a major earthquake in Asia, modern Turkey, and this was so devastating, he issued coins stating they were for the relief of Asia. He also waived all taxes in the region for 5 years – something our modern-day politicians would never dream of.

The lesson from history reveals that at times there emerges the acceptance of private money. During the 1870s, we also see private tokens circulating as money in the United States. Collectors call them the Hard Times Tokens. The very same thing took place during the American Civil War.

During the Great Depression, the shortage of money led to more than 200 cities issuing their own paper currency. As long as everyone in town accepted it, these Depressions Scrips enable people to work and to be paid locally when there was simply not enough federal money to go around.

During the Hyperinflation in Germany of the 1920s, there again we see private currency being printed known as NOTGELD. Therefore, in the end, when the confidence in government declines, society is compelled to return to a barter-based society and that is when we begin to see private forms of money take hold.

The Coming Revolution – The End of Brazil


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central America Re-Posted Jan 6, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The leftist press immediately claims that any assertions of a rigged election in Brazil are as baseless as the Hunter Biden laptop. Our model shows that the election was in fact bogus and it was in a series of global elections that are being rigged to create this global leftist agenda. For any newspaper to immediately proclaim Bolanaro left the country amid “baseless” claims shows that they are just propaganda and part of the agenda.

Our model showed a serious Directional Change would take place in 2023, but we are looking at the complete collapse of Brazil and a major revolution unfolding in 2030. Leftist governments have ALWAYS, and without exception, resulted in declining economic growth. NEVER has even just one ever produced any economic benefit to the whole of any nation. Brazil has sealed its fate and it will take the rest of the continent with it. South and Central America have been plagued with Marxism and that is why the continent has been unable to rise from its knees. Even the Pope has been infected with this philosophy which is why he is always commenting on the economy rather than religion. This has led to many Catholics now saying – He Ain’t My Pope.

The Real Cost of War


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jan 6, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Good Morning Mr. Armstrong, a long-time reader and client of Socrates and your conferences. I just read your entry for Belarus drafting 18 to 60-year-olds. I had a feeling that eventually, that would take place here in the states. I can tell you without a doubt, I will never comply. My family has served in WWII and Vietnam. We have given enough. I absolutely despise our government. I am wondering if this is part of the continued collapse of the government. With such low recruitment levels and the political fallout from the past few years, they must realize people will not be forced to serve. Especially those with the means to defend themselves. Is this a main component of civil unrest here with separatist movements? Just curious if you can elaborate on what you think will happen when they institute a draft here.
All the Best.

J

REPLY: My family has fought in every war since the American Revolution. My cousin still has the musket on his wall from the American Revolution. I lost half of my high school friends to Vietnam and my father and his three brothers were all in World War II and my grandfathers on both sides of the family were in World War I. There is no question that in a time of war, the first shot fired is both silent and never against an enemy. It is always against any truthful reporting of events.

The Defense Casualty Analysis System (DCAS) Extract Files contain records of 58,220 U.S. military fatal casualties of the Vietnam War. The government propaganda site, Wikipedia also directed by the Deep State, has low-balled the casualties claiming in total, all US and allied military deaths reached 282,000. We claim that is a victory for the VC lost 444,000 to possibly 666,000. The civilians who died have been low-balled with estimates of 405,000 up to 627,000. Just turn to Britannica and you get:

“In 1995 Vietnam released its official estimate of the number of people killed during the Vietnam War: as many as 2,000,000 civilians on both sides and some 1,100,000 North Vietnamese and Viet Cong fighters.”

President Lydon Johnson knew there was no reason to enter Vietnam. He knew we could not get out easily. Still, he committed the country to war because the Neocons wanted it.

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This is a famous photograph from Vietnam that is probably the most memorable of all time. You see South Vietnamese forces following terrified children. At the center is 9-year-old Phan Thi Kim Phùc, as she and other children are running from an aerial napalm attack on suspected Viet Cong hiding places on June 8, 1972. The plane accidentally dropped napalm on South Vietnamese troops and civilians. As always, just the collateral damage of war. The terrified girl had ripped off her burning clothes while fleeing. This photo was taken by Nick Ut of The Associated Press that captured the horror of Vietnam worldwide. It was 1972 when President Nixon said enough and promised to bring the troops home.

This 9-year-old make girl running from napalm, Phan Thi Kim Phúc, had profoundly changed her forever. Such people are tormented for a lifetime. They wake up at night dreaming over and over about the horror of those events for the rest of their lives. Kim Phúc was bitter and full of hatred she said. Later, she picked up the Bible and converted to Christianity. Today, she lives in Toronto with her family and helps other children victims of war around the world. It is those who survive who are profoundly tortured for the remainder of their lives. That is the real cost of war that nobody cares about.

The official estimate of civilian deaths in World War II stands at a total of 70–85 million. The actual military deaths were 21,000,000 to 25,500,000. There is ALWAYS an equal amount of civilian deaths in times of war. Those in power never want to talk about that.