Posted originally on Jul 28, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), a supervolcano is any volcanic center that has explosively erupted at least 1,000 cubic kilometers (240 cubic miles) of fresh volcanic material in a sudden, violent manner. Yellowstone is a supervolcano, one of the largest and most active volcanic systems in the world. It has produced some of the most massive eruptions in Earth’s history. The Yellowstone Caldera was formed by a series of catastrophic supereruptions over the past 2.1 million years.

Huckleberry Ridge Eruption (2.1 million years ago) was one of the largest volcanic eruptions ever recorded. It ejected about 2,450 cubic kilometers of material. It managed to form the Island Park Caldera (the first Yellowstone caldera).

Then there was the Mesa Falls Eruption (1.3 million years ago). This was a smaller but still massive eruption that ejected about 280 cubic kilometers of material. That created the Henry’s Fork Caldera.

Then came the Lava Creek Eruption (approximately 640,000 years ago). This was the most recent supereruption, ejecting approximately 1,000 cubic kilometers of material, which formed the Yellowstone Caldera (approximately 30 x 45 miles wide).

Based on these estimates, the cycle of a supervolcano would be about 486,000 years. I would suspect the real number may be 430,000 since this Pi frequency governs the universe. The precession of the Equinoxes is approximately 25,800 years, which is 3 times 8,600 years.

The volcanic activity is never confined to a single volcano. They correlate to activity. Yes, there were significant volcanic eruptions between 150 AD and 200 AD. One of the most notable was the 186 AD eruption of Lake Taupō (New Zealand), also known as the Hatepe eruption. That was a big one, VEI 7, one of the most powerful eruptions in the last 5,000 years. This produced massive pyroclastic flows and ashfall that caused global climatic effects and a volcanic winter. The Chinese recorded red sunsets and Roman texts around this time. Of course, Mount Vesuvius (Italy) made its famous 79 AD eruption, and Vesuvius remained active, with possibly more minor eruptions around this time of 150AD.

In more modern times, Yellowstone has experienced smaller eruptions and lava flows, with the most recent one occurring approximately 70,000 years ago. A massive reservoir of molten rock currently lies beneath Yellowstone, fueling its geysers and hot springs. The volcano is perhaps overdue for an eruption. If it erupted, it could be catastrophic (global climate effects, ash fallout), but the most likely activity would be smaller lava flows.

The supervolcano eruptions were the Yellowstone Lava Creek eruption (USA, ~640,000 years ago), which ejected about 1,000 km of material, and the Youngest Toba eruption (Indonesia, 74,000 years ago), which ejected about 2,800 km of material. The most recent supereruption (defined as ejecting at least 1,000 cubic kilometers of volcanic material) was the Oruanui eruption of Taupō Volcano in New Zealand about 26,500 years ago (during the Last Glacial Maximum). That ejected approximately 1,170 km (280 cubic miles) of material and had a VEI of 8 (Volcanic Explosivity Index).

There are several supervolcanoes around the world, and perhaps the most recent one to erupt was in Italy. The term “supervolcano” has been popularized by the BBC and the Discovery Channel’s 2005 story on Yellowstone. Campi Flegrei qualifies as a supervolcano due to its past eruptions exceeding 1,000 km³ of ejecta (when combining its largest events). Currently, Italy’s Campi Flegrei volcano has been showing signs for the first time in nearly 400 years that it is still active and capable of causing significant disruption, potentially affecting a large number of people. It is one of the most dangerous, given its proximity to the population. Campi Flegrei is experiencing heightened activity, including increased seismic activity and ground uplift. Scientists are closely monitoring the situation due to the potential for phreatic (steam-driven) explosions and the region’s history of volcanic activity. 

Aside from Yellowstone, the largest volcanic eruption in the Northern Hemisphere in the past 100,000 years has been attributed to a Supervolcano, which erupted some 39,400 years ago in what is known as the Phlegraean Fields near Naples, Italy. This has been documented from several sources. The ashes from this eruption were dispersed over the entire eastern Mediterranean and as far as central Russia. This was a huge event that also triggered a Volcanic Winter, and that is the worst thing for the rest of the world, which resides at a safe distance from the actual Supervolcano.

Naples, Italy, is situated near the Campi Flegrei (Phlegraean Fields), a vast volcanic region that encompasses a supervolcano. While not a single mountain-like volcano, Campi Flegrei is an enormous caldera system formed by massive eruptions. Campi Flegrei is still active and considered one of the world’s most dangerous volcanoes.

The Campanian Ignimbrite Eruption (39,000 years ago) is one of the most significant volcanic eruptions in European history. This resulted in a volcanic winter. This most likely impacted Neanderthal populations and early modern humans. This may have even contributed to the extinction of the Neanderthals around 40,000 years ago. Perhaps their loss in numbers allowed the arrival of modern humans in Europe. Neanderthal-derived DNA has been identified in the genomes of most contemporary populations, with notable variations by region. It accounts for 1–4% of modern genomes for people outside Sub-Saharan Africa. This suggests that perhaps the survivors did interbreed with modern humans, suddenly, due to a volcanic eruption. Who knows, if Yellowstone erupts, the survivors may witness interbreeding between Democrats and Republicans – something unthinkable today.

We then see the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff Eruption (15,000 years ago), which was smaller but still significant eruption (40 km of material). That one formed much of the volcanic landscape around Naples.

Anyone who has visited the catacombs in Rome will notice that they are carved out of tuff, a soft type of rock formed from consolidated volcanic ash. This material comes from ancient volcanic eruptions in the region, particularly from the Alban Hills volcanic complex (Colli Albani), located southeast of Rome. The most significant eruption responsible for the tuff used in Roman catacombs and other ancient constructions is believed to be the Pozzolane Rosse eruption, which occurred around 456,000 years ago.

The Pozzolane Rosse eruption was a volcanic event associated with the Colli Albani (Alban Hills) volcanic complex, located about 20 km southeast of Rome, Italy. A distinctive red-brown pyroclastic deposit (ignimbrite) that covers parts of Rome and its surroundings. The Romans later used the material as pozzolana, a key ingredient in hydraulic cement.

The ancient Romans were pioneers in developing concrete, utilizing volcanic materials to make it exceptionally durable. Their concrete, known as opus caementicium, was a key factor in the longevity of Roman structures, such as the Pantheon, Colosseum, and aqueducts, many of which still stand today.

The Romans mixed:

1. 1. Lime (from heating limestone)
   2. Volcanic ash (from regions like Pozzuoli, near Mount Vesuvius)
   3. Water
   4. Aggregates (rocks, broken pottery, or brick)

This combination created a pozzolanic reaction, forming a strong, water-resistant binder. The volcanic ash (called pozzolana) reacted with lime to produce a cement that even hardened underwater—crucial for Roman harbors and bridges. Cracks could “re-seal” due to ongoing chemical reactions with water. However, it was this invention of concrete that is the reason their structures have lasted 2,000+ years. Modern concrete often degrades in decades and is unmatched by the Roman formulas.

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When we correlate all the data, what is striking is that approximately 90% of the world’s earthquakes, including most of the world’s largest earthquakes, occur along the Ring of Fire. I have personally experienced it in Vancouver, Tokyo, Australia, and New Zealand, all on one trip. It seemed to be following me with the first one hitting in Toronto. The Ring of Fire is home to 75% of the world’s volcanoes and 90% of its earthquakes. We’re talking about a massive 24,900-mile horseshoe-shaped zone that basically wraps around the Pacific Ocean like a geological death grip. In 2024, a total of 1,374 earthquakes with a magnitude of 5+ or more were recorded worldwide as of December that year.

Running that through Socrates revealed a cycle low was due in 2022 following the major high in 2011. This filtered it down to earthquakes that were 6.0 or higher. There were the 2004 (Sumatra M9.1), 2011 (Japan M9.0), and 2010 (Chile M8.8), which all saw spikes due to mega-thrust earthquakes.

The Ring of Fire typically experiences 150–170 M6.0+ quakes annually. The Deadliest Events were as follows:

1. 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami (M9.1) – 230,000 deaths.
2. 2011 Tohoku Earthquake (M9.0) – 16,000 deaths.
3. 2010 Chile Earthquake (M8.8) – 500 deaths.

We observed slightly lower activity in 2022, but large quakes still occurred (e.g., the 2021 Alaska M8.2 earthquake). (Data Sources: USGS Earthquake Catalog (USGS.gov))

We warned back in 2022 that we had a string of Directional Changes between 2022 and 2025.  We may be looking at rising volcanic activity into 2025.  Our computer has identified a rise in volcanic activity during solar minima, which then produces more gamma rays that tend to penetrate the Earth’s surface. This current Solar Wave 25, which our model still shows ideally should peak perhaps here in July, then from here on out we will see a move into 2028/2029 for solar minimum. We are witnessing large ejection flares from the sun that were greater than most expected.

Initial predictions suggested a relatively weak maximum around July 2025. However, observed activity has been significantly stronger than predicted. Sunspot numbers, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have consistently exceeded forecasts. Based on this intense activity, the peak (maximum) is now expected sooner and potentially higher than initially thought. The Sun has been very active recently, with frequent sunspot groups, powerful solar flares (including numerous X-class flares), and significant geomagnetic storms causing widespread auroras (even at unusually low latitudes) in May 2024.

What we must understand about cycles is that, given our entry into this high in July 2025, we have witnessed much higher volatility than expected. This suggests that, as we turn back down into solar minimum, ideally reaching the bottom of the ECM in 2028 or early 2029, the resulting decline should be lower than expected. Whenever you rise with greater volatility, it is like a market that crashes harder. That said, if we are to experience a similar event to the Sun falling into a Maunder-minimum-like (inactive) state (1645-1715), which created the mini-Ice Age, it appears that we must be concerned, as it has been 309.6 years since that event in general. If we observe an equally violent contraction, then we should expect greater activity from the Ring of Fire, and that 2022 marked a significant low in earthquakes.

Solar Minima appear to be occurring close to a 309.6-year cycle. There have been many studies on the impact of UV and gamma radiation during solar changes and events. Gamma rays are a form of electromagnetic radiation, as are radio waves, infrared radiation, ultraviolet radiation, X-rays, and microwaves. Gamma rays can be used to treat cancer, and astronomers study gamma-ray bursts. What becomes concerning is the potential for a pole shift. The poles on the sun shift every 11 years, meaning it takes 22 years to complete the cycle. The Moon does not have a global magnetic field today, so it doesn’t experience regular pole shifts like the Sun or Earth.

My concern on a correlation basis is that what we do know is that the Earth’s magnetic field has been weakening over the past 160+ years (by about 9% per century since 1840). Then there is the South Atlantic Anomaly (a region over the Atlantic where the field is unusually weak), which some scientists suggest could be an early sign of instability, and this is growing. Studies of past reversals (like the Laschamps Excursion, 41,000 years ago) show that field strength drops significantly before a reversal.

It appears that as the field weakens, this should result in greater volatility in volcanic activity as we enter solar minimum. That raises the risk of a catastrophic volcanic winter period after 2029, which would extend into our computer target for 2032. This is why I suggest that you should have 2 years of food in reserve. What correlates with all of this is the disease cycle. Plagues follow volcanic winters for food production declines, and as malnutrition rises, so does disease.

I believe that people prefer to assume uniformity rather than a catastrophe. When people raise the question of a pole shift, they write it off as a Y2K Alarm Bell and thus a conspiracy theory. A stalagmite-based paleomagnetic record of the post-Blake excursion reveals that repeated polarity drifts have occurred during periods of low geomagnetic field intensity, approximately 100,000 years before present, around the time of the Naples Supervolcano eruption. One surprisingly abrupt centennial reversal transition occurred in 144,000 years, providing unprecedented evidence that raises fundamental questions about the speed of geomagnetic field shifts. Such rapid polarity changes could severely affect satellites and human society in the future if the current geomagnetic field intensity continues to decrease.

We have a pole shift, climate change, and volcanic eruptions seem to be interlinked on a correlated basis. Our correlation models have indicated that this is something that warrants further investigation. For the first time, laying out this record yields a single geological archive, establishing a precise chronological order. These types of events can occur, perhaps even instantly. Scientists for decades argued that such earth changes were slow, gradual events. Then the discovery of the frozen woolly rhinos and mammoths ignited the Enlightenment era.

The discovery of frozen woolly mammoths with food still in their stomachs is one of the most fascinating pieces of evidence supporting the idea that a sudden, catastrophic climate shift in the past may be the norm, not the exception. Many mammoths (like the famous Beresovka mammoth) were found with undigested food in their stomachs and mouths, including grasses, buttercups, and other temperate plants. This suggests they died suddenly, with no time to digest their last meal. Some specimens were so well-preserved that their flesh was still edible when discovered.

The traditional gradual ice-age theory cannot explain how mammoths froze so quickly that their stomach contents remained intact. A sudden, extreme drop in temperature possibly due to a cosmic impact, volcanic activity, or a geomagnetic shift. Some have suggested that there was massive flooding or mudslides from melting permafrost or glacial outbursts that buried them rapidly before scavengers could decompose them. A pole shift or rapid climate change could cause Arctic regions to freeze almost instantly. This is the catastrophic view of panic-like cycles in a sudden market crash versus the uniform belief that the government can control the economy. Mainstream science often favors slow climate change, but the frozen mammoths suggest a rapid, catastrophic event was the outcome. This Gradialism/Uniformity view vs  Catastrophism simply does not hold up with the evidence and is more like Marx and Keynes, who defy the business cycle and argued that government can control the economy and lead us to the land of utopian economics.

The Younger Dryas Impact Hypothesis (around 12,800 years ago) suggests a comet impact triggered abrupt cooling, possibly explaining the mammoths’ sudden demise. But would a comet spark instant cold to freeze the mammoths before they swallowed their meal? The frozen mammoths with food in their stomachs indicate a near-instantaneous freezing event, challenging the idea of slow climate change. Whether due to a pole shift, cosmic impact, or another catastrophic event, these findings suggest that Earth’s past may have experienced abrupt, violent changes rather than gradual processes.

Consequently, the discovery of the frozen mammoth in 1787 following the woolly rhinoceros in 1772 sparked the imagination that truly contributed to the “Age of Enlightenment” where there was a burst of knowledge erupting in every field of inquisition. Such finds of frozen mammoths in Siberia continue to this day. This has challenged theories on both sides of the debate to explain how such catastrophic events can occur. These frozen animals in Siberia suggest strange events are possible. This is what sparked the entire consideration that perhaps cycles existed in nature, as well as in economies and societies.