Tag Archives: Hunt for Taxes

Sep 21 2017

Afghan President Says Trump’s Strategy (Trump Doctrine) Much More Effective Than Obama’s Failures…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 20, 2017 by

Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani delivered remarks today at the U.N. discussing the difference between U.S. President Donald Trump’s current strategy and the failed policy of former President Obama.

Two key differences underline the optimism of Ghani: #1) President Trump listened to what the region needed for stability; and #2) The Trump Doctrine of appropriately placing responsibility on Pakistan due to their enabling conduct with the extremist Taliban.

(Reuters) – Afghan President Ashraf Ghani said on Wednesday that U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategy to win the war in Afghanistan will work where his predecessor’s failed because the Afghan army is stronger and Trump wants a regional approach and a harder line with Pakistan.

Ghani also said that former President Barack Obama “did not have a partner in Afghanistan,” implicitly criticizing former Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who frequently disdained U.S. policy and the U.S.-led international military force.

“President Trump is not just an individual (but) a team of partners in Afghanistan,” Ghani told the Asia Society in New York, where he is attending the U.N. General Assembly. “The Trump administration’s strategy has the uniqueness of immense consultations with us.”

At the same time, Ghani said, Obama’s decision to maintain some U.S. forces in Afghanistan “ensured our survival” despite advances by Taliban insurgents.

U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis said on Monday that more than 3,000 additional U.S. troops are being deployed to Afghanistan under the new strategy announced last month. The number of U.S. forces would rise to more than 14,000, compared to a high of more than 100,000 under Obama.

While providing few details, Trump pledged stepped-up operations against the Taliban and an open-ended commitment of U.S. military advisers, trainers and counter-terrorism units.

He also vowed to take a tougher line to end what U.S. officials say is Pakistan providing refuge and other support to the Taliban and other extremist groups. Pakistan denies the charge.

Asked how Trump’s strategy differs from Obama‘s, Ghani said Trump’s plan takes “a regional approach” to security and a harder line with Pakistan while providing a new opening for peace talks.

“The message to Pakistan to engage and become a responsible stakeholder in the region and in the fight against terrorism has never been clearer,” Ghani said. “What I am offering the Pakistan government, the Pakistan security apparatus, is the invitation to a comprehensive dialogue.”

“If Pakistan does not take this opportunity, I think they will pay a high price,” he said, without elaborating.  (read more)

Sep 21 2017

Catalonia Independence Vote October 1st


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union

Re-Posted Sep 21, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Spanish government refuses to listen to anything from Catalonia  and announced it would intervene in Catalonia’s finances to ensure that “not one euro” of public money was used to fund the “illegal” vote. Meanwhile, the Spanish police arrested 13 people in the region of Catalonia and Madrid for their alleged involvement in planning a vote to secede from Spain. This is clearly demonstrating that the Spanish government is reverting to its old fascist ways for it is the boldest move yet by Spanish authorities to stop the separatist movement.

It was 1931 when the nations defaulted on their debts that saw Estat Català and other parties began to form Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Republican Left of Catalonia)(ERC). The ERC won a dramatic victory in the municipal elections that year and this is when we must regard the first major step in the separatics movement.

Francesc Macià founded Estat Català (Catalan State) and proclaimed the Catalan Republic. However, after negotiations with the leaders of the new Spanish Republic, he instead accepted autonomy within the Spanish state. In the Spanish Civil War, General Francisco Franco abolished Catalan autonomy in 1938. Following Franco’s death in 1975, Catalan political parties concentrated on autonomy rather than independence.

To put this in context, it was 1931 which gave birth to the Second Republic of Spain on April 14th, 1931 after the departure from Spain of King Alfonso XIII, following local and municipal elections where republican candidates won the majority of votes in urban areas. Though Alfonso did not formally abdicate, his departure from the country led to a provisional government under Niceto Alcalá Zamora. It was at this time that a constitution was drawn up.

The Second Republic of Spain in 1931 raised the hopes for the Spanish people that the middle and lower classes would be allowed to at last advance. This included at the time women rights and for the curtailment of special privileges for the Church. It was Spain’s attempt to establish a non-religious basis for national culture and citizenship.

Nonetheless, there was the largest working-class party that was the Socialists. Their principal goal was Marxist-inspired economic and social change, but they strongly favored a republic. The situation changed dramatically on May 10, 1931, as a result of the “Burning of Convents”. The provisional government of the Second Spanish Republic had little interest in restraining manifestations of anticlericalism, as became apparent shortly after the proclamation of the Republic. Many of the new political leaders were openly anti-Catholic. So we had at this time a growing Marxist movement in Spain as well. Then on May 10th, 1931, the playing of the monarchist anthem or hymn at a royalist club in Madrid provoked an attack by supporters of the Republic that soon degenerated into three days of violence directed primarily against churches, convents and monasteries. Rioting soon spread from Madrid to Seville, Malaga and four other cities. The government at first did nothing to quell the growing violence. This fragmentation would lay the foundation for the rise of Franco and the Civil War.

The Spanish Constitution of 1931 was approved by the Constituent Assembly on December 9th, 1931. It remained in force only until  April 1st, 1939. This was the second period of Spanish history in which both head of state and head of government were democratically elected.

The planned referendum will take place on October 1st. Madrid refuses to address any issues despite the Catalan President and the mayor of Barcelona appealing for an agreement on a vote and issuing “a new call to dialogue” without preconditions. The 1931 movement for independence was the watershed moment. Cyclically, this is now 86 years in 2017. There is no question that independence will eventually succeed, but this is also coming at a critical time to try to save the EU. Cyclically, this is simply right on time 2017.

A comment from a reader in Barcelona says it all how memories still run deep:

“I follow your blog out of curiosity since I am a person with low income … I have been Catalan independentista since the 10 years 1980 i agree wth that all my life . my grandfather was in prison for speaking Catalan and my father forced him to learn fascist hymns, also spanish fascim of franco favored Spanish immigration in catalunya to Spanishize the region… my convictions that I am Catalan and I fight for a nobler cause of freedom not only for the interests of taxes that come from Madrid, if my main anger is by its stupid laws inherited from fascism to its inherited legacy of an old fallen Catholic empire, I consider that my struggle it is a struggle for the diversity of languages, the diversity of cultures which in this global world are being eaten lenguajes to extind in the name of great dictadors gloval interests.”
Categories: European Union, SPAIN
Sep 21 2017

Louvre Accord v Plaza Accord


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Sep 21, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: I notice you often cite the *Plaza Accord* when on the topic of central bank currency manipulation. That accord was signed in 1985 with an aim to devalue the USD. Could you write a little on the *Louvre Accord” signed just two years later, in 1987, with an aim to reverse the unwanted effects of the *Plaza Accord*. Thanks – cheers,

TGM

ANSWER: The Louvre Accord was an agreement, signed on February 22, 1987 in Paris, that aimed to stabilize the international currency markets and halt the continued decline of the US Dollar caused by the Plaza Accord. The agreement was signed by France, West Germany, Japan, Canada, the United States and the United Kingdom. Italy declined to sign the agreement.

The G7 meeting of central bankers and finance ministers in Paris announced that the dollar was now “consistent with economic fundamentals.” The announced that they would only intervene when required to ensure foreign exchange stability. The objective was then to manage the floating currency system. Democrats gained control of Congress in 1986 and immediately called for protectionist measures. The dollar depreciation agreed to in 1985 at the Plaza Accord, failed to really improve the trade perspective. In 1986, the trade deficit actually rose to approximately $166 billion with exports at about $370 billion and imports at about $520 billion. The object of manipulating currency to try to create jobs and alter trade flows proved to be completely false.

My concerns warning that volatility would increase made back in 1985 were materializing. What they did not understand was the lowering the dollar in value also led to a shift in capital flows and the selling of US assets. Foreigners were suffering loses by financing U.S. trade through purchasing United States Treasury bonds in an attempt to ease the trade deficit criticism. We were advising Japanese to buy gold on the New York COMEX, export it, and then resell which would also make it appear that the US exports were increasing. However, the lower dollar was then resulting in the importation of inflation into their own nations.

We can see that first of all the dollar had already begun a decline prior to the Plaza Accord in August 1985. By the time we arrived at the  Louvre Accord, you can also see that the dollar continued to decline. The attempt to manipulate the foreign exchange markets proved to beyond the capacity of the G5 which had been expanded to G7 and today is now G20. We can see the capital flow data between the USA and Japan began to move in early 1984 establishing the trend that nobody seemed to pay attention to at that moment.

The price action of the dollar clearly proves that the central banks lacked the power to truly influence the markets. The trend had begun prior to the Plaza Accord and it continued to decline following the Louvre Accord.

Sep 20 2017

Understanding Cycles


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized

Re-Posted Aug 13, 2012 by Martin Armstrong

Cycle targets that we provide are TURNING POINTS. This means an event normally takes place at that time be it a high or low. If ideally something should produce a low but does not and produces a high, it is typically extending the cycle to the next TURNING POINT. It looks at this time that the next important turning point is the week at the start of Sept. There is of course the Fed meeting. But then there is trouble among debt ridden nations and then there is Iran.

Keep in mind that for some strange reason, geopolitical events tend to also happen in the Aug/Sept time frame. Besides war, there was even 911. On 28 June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria was assassinated. World War I began officially 28 July 1914 and lasted until 11 November 1918. It was August when things really got underway. World War II began when Germany attacked Poland on September 1, 1939. Most stock market crash events take place after highs in early Sept such as 9/3/1929. Even the 1987 Crash 10/19/1987.What it is about this time of the year who knows. Where December is the time to be jolly, Sept is the time for chaos. Never look for a particular event high/low. It is a TURNING POINT that sometimes can invert and produce the opposite largely because everything is connected. It is always an action/reaction.

Sep 20 2017

Cycle of Knowledge


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Sep 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hello,

I am a French Astrophysicist and I end up watching with great interest a TV story about Martin Armstrong. As a scientist I am really curious and keen to build new connection between our way of describing the Universe and the bias introduced by our own vision and history. Hence I was wondering if the algorithm that Martin has developed was ever tested on human knowledge discovery or if this is something that could be interesting to do.

Kind Regards,

IA

ANSWER: Absolutely. There is cycle to knowledge that I have also encountered and found fascinating. We reach period of knowledge and then we seem to lose it all and reboot. Society before the Dark Age knew the Earth was round and not flat.  For example, if we look at the ancient Greeks, the knew the Earth was round and not flat. They burned people like Giordano Bruno (1548–1600) alive at the stake for claiming the world was round and it revolved around the sun instead of the other way around. The Greek philosopher Aristotle (384-322 BC) argued in his writings that the Earth was spherical, because of the circular shadow it cast on the Moon, during a lunar eclipse. Another reason was that some stars visible from Egypt are not seen further north. Aristotle wrote:

The evidence of the senses further corroborates this. How else would eclipses of the moon show segments shaped as we see them? As it is, the shapes which the moon itself each month shows are of every kind — straight, gibbous, and concave — but in eclipses the outline is always curved: and, since it is the interposition of the earth that makes the eclipse, the form of this line will be caused by the form of the earth’s surface, which is therefore spherical.

Again, our observations of the stars make it evident, not only that the earth is circular, but that it is a circle of no great size. For quite a small change of position to south or north causes a manifest alteration of the horizon. There is much change, I mean, in the stars which are overhead, and the stars seen are different, as one moves northward or southward. Indeed there are some stars seen in Egypt and in the neighborhood of Cyprus which are not seen in the northerly regions; and stars, which in the north are never beyond range of observation, in those regions rise and set.

All of which goes to show not only that the earth is circular in shape, but also that it is a sphere of no great size: for otherwise the effect of so slight a change of place would not be so quickly apparent. Hence one should not be too sure of the incredibility of the view of those who conceive that there is continuity between the parts about the pillars of Hercules and the parts about India, and that in this way the ocean is one.

(Aristotle, “On the Heavens,” Book II, Chapter 14, The Works of Aristotle, Oxford University Press; pp. 297-298.)

Aristotle, on the other hand, disagreed with the Atomic theory developed by Democritus (460—370 BC) in 465BC. He believed that instead of being matter being made of tiny particles (atoms) that they were all fundamentally air, fire, water, and earth. The Atomic theory was actually first proposed by Leucippus (c 5th cent. BC), and was then adopted by Democritus. The Atomic theory stated that “The universe is composed of two elements: the atoms and the void in which they exist and move.” According to Democritus atoms were miniscule quantities of matter, which he believed could not be destroyed, differ in size, shape and temperature. They were also in constant movement yet could not be seen with the naked eye. He believed that there are an infinite number of atoms.

Then there was the Alexandrian philosopher Eratosthenes (c. 276BC–195/194BC) who actually estimated how large the Earth was. Eratosthenes learned that on midsummer day (June 21) in the town of Syene in southern Egypt, the noontime Sun was reflected in a deep well for it was directly overhead on that one day. Eratosthenes in Alexandria which was about 5000 stadia north of Syene. In Alexandria the Sun on the corresponding date did not quite reach zenith (perfectly overhead), and vertical objects would cast a short shadow. Hence, Eratosthenes calculated that the direction of the noon Sun differed from the zenith by an angle that was 1/50 of the circle, that is, 7. 2 degrees. With this realization, ,Eratosthenes estimated the circumference of the Earth to be 250,000 stadia.

 I have stated before that after Rome fell, the financial capitol of the world moved to Constantinople in Turkey. After the Byzantine Empire fell, that financial capitol moved to India. It was because of the importance of India that Columbus set sail on a mission to India based upon a wrong calculation of the size of the earth. Columbus relied upon the calculations of the earth from Ptolemy. Ptolemy influenced Strabo who in turn reduced the 250,000 Stadia of Eratosthenes to 180,000, and then stated that half of that distance came to just 70,000 stadia, making India reachable by sailing West. So India has played a very important role for Europe bumped into the Americas by trying to sail to India.

This is only one example of how there has been a cycle to knowledge. It is by no means linear. Knowledge is built from experience. Thus, we have to go through the business cycle to advance. This was in part included in Schumpter’s explanation of the business cycle that there are waves of innovation. He did not see what I see studying history that there is also a peak and then a decline to the level of knowledge as well and it is not linear as Schumpter imagined from a small data set.

Sep 20 2017

Dark Age v Renaissance


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Sep 20, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

Thank you for everything that you do.  Concerning the post, The Long-Term Cycle of Monetary Crisis, you describe the corruption of power that leads to monetary crisis and the subsequent reform: the thread that repeats throughout history.

I was wondering if you could contrast this with the periods of history where there is a renaissance/age of enlightenment, and the common tread there (is it the people revolting, which is the only way that corruption of power is defeated?).

Many Thanks Again,

Danny

ANSWER: Oh yes. This is part of the Cycle of Civilization but now you are at the 309+ year level where major change begins to appear. The big one comes on the Sixth Wave of the 309.6 Year level. This is the only reason I do what I do. I have written many times that when this wave peaks in 2032, when we come to a crossroads. We either regress contracting into authoritarianism, then break-up into a fragmented feudal type system of local tribes basically, or we can perhaps crash and burn, but then see the light and we make a major technological leap forward.

Even at each 51.6 year wave culmination there is a major structural reset. It is my HOPE that if we reach a level of understanding how and why things work, then we have a shot and perhaps pushing back and we can make do what Neil Armstrong said upon landing on the moon: “That’s one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind.“

This is the third set of the Sixth Wave. This is why I say if it was just me, I am ready- Beam Me Up Scotty. I have my posterity to think about. So I am trying to do what I can. I bumped into cycles in the middle of the night. They found me. I never approached this as a theory to go out and prove. Most major discoveries in science have been by accident.

The Renaissance really began when Constantinople fell to the Turks. Then the scholars fled to the West bringing the known with them in 1453. Note the year. They began schools and started to teach people all the knowledge they had forgotten. There were some who were starting to reintroduce mathematics like Fibonacci (c. 1175 – c. 1250) during the 13th century. But it was the schools that opened following the fall of Constantinople that brought educate back to Europe. Hence, Columbus was exposed to that knowledge and he realized the Earth was round. He set sail in 1492.

The full Age of Enlightenment truly began with the confrontation that cycles existed. It all began with the discovery in 1772 of a frozen intact woolly rhinoceros . Then intact woolly-mammoth followed in Siberia. Suddenly people were stunned. This meant that you could be frozen with food still in you mouth. This inspired tremendous investigation into gravity to the cyclical nature of comets.

The Dark Age is the fragmentation of society reverting back to where we see nations breaking up unto regions and then all the way back to city states. The  Renaissance is typically inspired by the rediscovery of lost knowledge. This is really an extensive subject. I have written a book on this entire topic documenting everything from math and science to political rise and fall. I am hiring more editors to try to get out several books that have been backlogged for way too long.

Sep 19 2017

A New Park has been set up in Macedonia, Ohio Honoring Veterans


For the past 2 years my American Legion Nordonia Hills Post 801 with the help of Veterans of Foreign Wars Post 6768 and the city of Macedonia has worked on establishing a Veterans Memorial Park dedicated to honor all veterans.  It has now completed the first phase of the Park.  The AL Post Commander and Chairperson of the committee established to create this park first created a team of motivated veterans.  The team raised about 40% of the estimated $364,000 required to construct the entire park.  These funds allowed us to design and build the park’s main entrance starting in May 2017.  Construction was completed on September 15, 2017, POW/MIA Recognition Day.   The next day, September 16,  the first part of this projected was dedicated.

There were three monuments displaced, this is the Main One to all veterans.

The other two are one for the War on Terror and one for Vietnam

We had a band and many local politicians as well as three Former Green Berets as speakers. Colonel David Taylor (center), Lt Colonel Howard Pearce (Right) and myself (Left).

The Crowd

Nordonia Hills Veterans Memorial Park

 

 

Sep 19 2017

USTR Robert Lighthizer Outlines U.S. Trade Priorities – Trump Administration Willing to Confront WTO Multinationals…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on September 19, 2017 by

In about a week Round #3 of NAFTA renegotiations begin in Canada.  Dispute settlement and country of origin rules are widely anticipated to be key points of disagreement.

For those who follow trade and economics closely, the latest Trump trade policy outline from U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is buckets of good news. President Trump, Commerce Secretary Ross and USTR Lighthizer willing to confront the World Trade Organization (WTO), the epicenter of multinational economics and globalism.

.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The WTO dispute settlement system is “deficient” and has often ruled in favor of free trade that overlooks details of a trade agreement, U.S. trade envoy Robert Lighthizer said on Monday.

Speaking at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Lighthizer, a trade lawyer, made clear that the administration was poised to push for major changes to the global trade system during upcoming meetings of the Geneva-based trade body. WTO member countries will meet in Buenos Aires on Dec 10.

U.S. President Donald Trump called the World Trade Organization a “disaster” during his presidential campaign and his administration has sought to unilaterally go after countries like China that it thinks is breaking trade rules.

“There are a number of issues on which there is pretty broad agreement that the WTO dispute settlement understanding is deficient,” said Lighthizer, highlighting problems with WTO staffing and transparency.

“The United States sees numerous examples where the dispute settlement process over the years has really diminished what we’ve bargained for or imposed obligations that we do not believe we agree to,” he said.

He added: “There have been a lot of cases in the trade remedies laws where in my opinion the decisions are really indefensible.”

Since its launch in 1995 the WTO has become the main venue for resolving trade disputes between countries. The Trump administration has begun to launch trade investigations under statutes seldom used in the WTO era, including a “Section 301” probe of China’s intellectual property practices.

Lighthizer did not threaten a U.S. withdrawal from the WTO, but emphasized his own dissatisfaction with some of its rulings.

In a letter in March, the Trump administration made clear that U.S. law supersedes WTO rules — a view that could be invoked should Congress adopt policies that are later challenged by other member countries as violating WTO rules.

“We’ve had tax laws struck down, we’ve had other provisions where the WTO has taken…the decision they were going to strike down something they thought shouldn’t happen, rather than looking at the agreement as a contract,” he said.

Lighthizer emphasized that the Trump administration was reviewing all trade agreements and would seek to renegotiate those that did not benefit U.S. workers and businesses.

“I believe, and I think the president believes, that we must be proactive,” he said, “We must demand reciprocity in home and international markets. So expect change, expect new approaches and expect action.” (link)

Sep 19 2017

China a Different Breed of Government


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

Re-Posted Sep 19, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Why do you say China will replace the West when their government is still the communist party?

ANSWER: China is no more communist than Donald Trump. There is a cycle of life through which we all pass including governments. China revolted against communism. The government may retain that name, but they are no communist in that sense of the word.

I have explained before that Russian communism was concerned about what you thought where as China adopted the tall poppy policy. If Stalin thought you would be a threat to his power you were killed. In China, you could think what you wanted provided you did not step up publicly.

China is not at the same place in the cycle of life as we see in Europe and America. Therefore, China is on the rise and will replace the West which is burdened with socialism they cannot possibly afford.  China learned its lessons and is moving forward despite the name of the government party.

If things got worse in the West, I would apply to China for political asylums.

Sep 19 2017

Judge Suspended for 30 days for Wearing a Trump Hat


Armstrong Economics Blog/Canada

Re-Posted Sep 19, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

A judge in Ontario, Canada was suspended for 30-day without pay for wearing a Trump hat – Make America Great Again. This certain raises the question would he have suffered the same penalty had he worn a Hillary hat?