Draghi Knew About Hiding Losses by Italian Banks


The Bank of Italy, when it was headed at the time by Mario Draghi, knew Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA hid the loss of almost half a billion dollars using derivatives two years before prosecutors were alerted to the complex transactions, according to documents revealed in a Milan court.

Mario Draghi, now president of the European Central Bank, was fully aware of how derivatives were being used to hide losses. Goldman Sachs did that for Greece, which blew up in 2010. It is now showing that Draghi was aware of the problems stemming from a 2008 trade entered into with Deutsche Bank AG which was the mirror image of an earlier deal Monte Paschi had with the same bank. The Italian bank was losing about €370 million euros on the earlier transaction, internally they called “Santorini” named after the island that blew up in a volcano. The new trade posted a gain of roughly the same amount and allowed losses to be spread out over a longer period. We use to call these tax straddles.

The report was dated September 17th, 2010, and marked “private” demonstrating that the Bank of Italy was aware that by choosing not to book the trade at fair value Monte Paschi avoided showing a loss at the time. If the bank had used a mark-to-market valuation in the fourth quarter of 2008, it would have been included in its year-end report as the credit crisis was cresting.

This is the real picture behind the curtain. Draghi has known all about using derivatives to mask-over losses and pretend they are not there. The entire Greece Crisis was caused by Goldman Sachs constructing derivatives to pretend Greece made the criteria for the Eurozone.

Greece joined the Euro in 2001 under Costas Simitis. At the time, Greece owed about €3.4 billion euros it had borrowed. Goldman engineered a currency swap whereby the Greek debt, issued in dollars and yen, was exchanged for euros that were priced at a “historical” or entirely fictitious currency rate. Of course, swapping dollar and yen debt at nearly the low of 2000 when the euro was only 82 cents to the dollar became a nightmare. Greece’s debt doubled in real terms as the euro then rose to $1.60 by 2008. Obviously, Goldman offered no advice but structured a deal that only benefited itself by directing Greece to sell the dollar at the low. Goldman also set up an off-market interest-rate swap to repay the loan off the books, which was a currency position and therefore not technically a “loan” outside any reporting requirement as debt. The trade kept this part of the Greek debt off the books and cleverly hidden from scrutiny. This falsely created the idea that the Greek debt was moving in the right direction to meet the Maastricht rules eventually. Goldman overpriced the deal to such an extent that 12% of their $6.35 billion in trading and investment revenue for 2001 came from restructuring Greece. In total, they pocketed a premium fee of $300 million. Goldman also warned, as they typically do, Goldman would cancel the offer that if Greece shopped the deal around for a better price. Goldman further demanded that Greece pledge landing fees from Greek airports and revenue from the national lottery as part of the transaction to secure their own profits strip-mining Greece.

Within just three months of signing the deal, the bond markets took a major swing following the September 11 attack in New York during 2001. Furthermore, the dollar declined and the Euro soared. Greek officials began to realize that the deal was not going well in the least. The Greek national debt nearly doubled in size, and in real terms (currency adjusted), the debt would double by 2008 just in Euro terms nominally. Greece faced another financial crisis in 2005, which few understood. Goldman Sachs “restructured” the deal once again, but this time they were selling the interest rate swap to the National Bank of Greece under the new government that came to power in 2004 under Karamanlis. This increased the debt even further stretching-out the payments beyond 2032. Goldman managed to extract $500 million from the Greeks, according to numerous press stories (Independent Friday 10 July 2015; Greek debt crisis: Goldman Sachs could be sued for helping hide debts when it joined euro).

Goldman didn’t even blink and went to Athens to try to sell another deal. Goldman Sachs’ president Gary Cohn personally traveled there and offered to finance the country’s health care system debt, pushing that debt even further into the future. Goldman did not merely make huge fees, it even allegedly placed a bet on the economy of Greece that it would fail based upon its inside information. Goldman is known as Government Sachs and has been apparently beyond the reach of any law anywhere. Papandreou wisely declined Goldman’s 2009 deal and this is when he blew the lid off of what Goldman had done to his country.

Now Gary Cohen is in the White House orchestrating the resurrection of Glass Steagall to knock all the commercial banks out of the investment bank business leaving Goldman Sachs (Government Sachs) with just one competitor – Morgan Stanley.

Meanwhile, because the ECB will cut its bond purchases by 50% next year, Draghi will be unable to help the Italian government and rules against bailing out the banks may just explode in everyone’s face next year.

They Now Want to Criminally Charge Le Pen to Remove Her from Politics


To assist the European Parliament, the French National Assembly has lifted the immunity of the head of the National Front, Marine Le Pen. The Paris parliamentary administration claims it is simply responding to a request of the judiciary, which under French law, prosecutes crimes. The trumped-up charges against Le Pen stem for publishing on Twitter the atrocities of victims of the jihadist militia Islamic State (IS). Le Pen faces several years in prison and this is obviously a political prosecution.

Le Pen responded to the press (AFP): “The freedom of opinion and the prosecution of grievances that are fundamental to a deputy is dead with this politically motivated decision.”

We seriously MUST take away the power to prosecute from the government. Any crime should be limited to VIOLENCE that results in prison and ALL prosecutions MUST be at the signed request of a citizen. If the citizen files a false charge, then they should suffer the same fate that they sought against the individual. We simply have to end political-prosecutions. That power MUST be stripped from governments when we get to reset the entire system once they crash and burn as a result of their own corruption.

The Unseen Cause of Rampant Violence in America


The university-bred doctrine of moral relativism, which influences all levels of education in America, spawns moral confusion and violence throughout American society.

By denying the existence of objective rational standards by which to distinguish right from wrong or good from bad, the academic doctrine of moral relativism fosters the primacy of force or violence as opposed to the primacy of reason and persuasion, as the only effective  means by which to resolve differences of opinion and interests among men.

Therefore, to diminish the violence now rampant in America, it will be necessary for the religious and political leaders of this country to criticize the academic doctrine of moral relativism by exposing its logical consequences and pernicious influence on the attitudes and public behavior of American citizens.

Prof. Paul Eidelberg

Iraq & Hunt for Taxes from American Contractors


Iraq has been accused of employing strong-arm tactics to make American military contractors operating in Iraq to pay exorbitant income taxes. They are running to Trump complaining that this is hampering the fight against Islamic State extremists – of course.

The Iraq government is demanding millions of dollars in taxes that these contractors earn providing services in Iraq. Iraqi government officials have refused to issue, or have delayed, the delivery of work visas to employees of companies that refuse to pay income taxes. They are running to Trump crying that the Iraqi authorities have held up delivery of essential supplies, such as food, fuel, and water according to The Associated Press.

Interesting how the hunt for taxes is impacting everything. Of course, any foreign company doing business in the USA has to pay taxes to the USA on what they earn. Why should this be any different?

Interest Rates will Double


QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Thank you for an excellent conference. I have been attending since 2011. Each time you deliver a different conference and they are always better than the last. I could not help to notice on Zero Hedge they ran a piece about a Harvard University’s visiting scholar at the Bank of England who claims:

“We trace the use of the dominant risk-free asset over time, starting with sovereign rates in the Italian city states in the 14th and 15th centuries, later switching to long-term rates in Spain, followed by the Province of Holland, since 1703 the UK, subsequently Germany, and finally the US.”

Besides claiming to calculate the 700-year average real rate at 4.78% suggesting that rates will rise sharply when your models are 5,000 years, the two ridiculous statements are a 700-year average as if this really means something in the near-term when rates have been below that for nearly 10 years, and second the statement that he traces “the dominant risk-free asset over time.” You have demonstrated that moving averages are not valid in forecasting and that government routinely defaults.

You forecast at the conference that rates would rise very rapidly as we move into the Monetary Crisis Cycle. When I returned home to Greece, the latest news here is that so many people do not even have the money left to pay taxes. Is this part of the first stone in the water that sets off the waves of the Monetary Crisis Cycle?

ANSWER: It is very nice to trace 700 years and come up with the average of 4.78% by switching to the dominant economy as the financial capital of the world moved. However, starting the study in the 14th century skips the crazy part. There was the Great Financial Crisis of 1092 in Byzantium. This was really a watermark event that set in motion the decline thereafter. This study of moving from Spain to Holland, UK, Germany, and then the USA, is interesting, but regionally biased.

The fall of Byzantium resulting in the financial capital of the world moving to India – not Spain. That is why Columbus set sail trying to get to India, which was the financial capital of the world after Byzantium.

We hit a 5,000 year low. The Reversals we provided at the conference show we are looking at a near doubling in rates when we cross that number.

Tax Reform & the Dow


Trump’s tax reform to cut the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 20% will be a huge boost for the economy and place tremendous pressure on the rest of the world. But already we have Republicans playing games for personal careers. They want to postpone the cut for corporations until 2019 AFTER, of course, the 2018 mid-term elections. As always, they are afraid that the Democrats will point to the rich and regain seats.

The longer they delay, the greater the economic decline. This may be the fundamental behind our model which targeted November for a temporary high. Nonetheless, our Energy Models have peaked on the Daily level suggesting that we are still not really in a serious overbought position. That implies a correction is possible, but not a major crash and change in long-term trend.

Sicily votes 81% against the EU Status Quo – It Begins!


The contagion from Catalonia is indeed spreading to Italy. The Democratic Party (PD) led by former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi has suffered a severe defeat in Sicily. The Eurosceptic parties have won the election sending yet another warning sign to Brussels that they refuse to accept demand reform. 

BerlusconiThe Democratic Party has lost the regional elections in Sicily in a very DRAMATIC way. Renzi’s party came in third place with just 19% of the vote. The candidate, supported by Silvio Berlusconi, has won around 40%. I have written before that RELIABLE sources revealed that the EU had staged a coup in Italy to overthrow Berlusconi because he was proposing back then to exit the Euro.

Brussels refuses to listen and reform anything.  Berlusconi proudly announced: “Sicily has chosen the path of change, as I have demanded,” in his video message on Facebook. Sicily is one of the poorest provinces in Italy. Youth unemployment is alarmingly high and many people migrate out of lack of prospects to the north or abroad.

Brussels is not interested in the people of Europe. This is now all about saving the jobs of the politicians in Brussels. They have no job without the Euro.

 

Bank of England & Real World


Without real-world experience, today’s move by the Bank of England would have cost you serious money. Yes, finally after more than a decade the BOE finally raised rates by 25 basis points to 0.50%. The move has been well telegraphed in recent days and having been confirmed the first thing we see is a 1.5% drop in Sterling. There are always reasons why and this one was no exception. Talk that future hikes will be gradual is the top excuse traders are using for sterling’s decline.
Inflation hit 3% in September of this year well above the 2% inflation BOE target so it was only a matter of time for the hike. However, with the future still uncertain ahead of April 2019 and the end of BREXIT talks, it is likely to take a steady hand to drive the 3% back towards target. Gradual rate increases are not what the currency markets wanted to hear but are has been helpful for the long end of the Gilt curve.
It is going to be an extremely difficult task for the Old Lady as she also tries to encourage foreign investment at a time when all help is needed. A weaker currency will not help that hand, but without it, the labour market will suffer.
Weekly bearish Reversal is down at 1.2811 which may well be the target for tomorrow if we see a 300K Non-Farms Payroll report. The close today will have elected Daily Reversals down from 1.3087.

Hillary What Happened – She Rigged the Democratic Party



Donna Brazile’s new memoir, Hacks, has exposed Hillary Clinton for what she really is – a corrupt manipulative politician. Brazile is the former Democratic party leader.  Behind the curtain, she is known as a foul-mouth boldface liar.  Now Brazile’s book,  reveals that Clinton took control of the party long before deciding who would be the Democrat final candidate. This is what the Clinton’s have been known for – behind-the-scenes manipulation.

Clinton knew that the Democratic party was heavily in debt.  Brazile describes Hillary’s acquisition of the party as an extortion. The Party left behind by Barack Obama inherited $24 million debt of which $15 million was bank debt, and $8 million was owed by the party to suppliers who had not been paid. In real terms, the Democratic Party was bankrupt confirming what our models had been forecasting about the decline in that party.

It was rescued by the Clintons, who had collected massive campaign contributions through their own promises and the use of the State Department. The Clintons steered the party to ensure the nomination would be Hillary’s alone. Clinton secretly took control of the strategy, finances, and staffing of the Democratic Party. That claim has been supported by the publication of fundraising agreements in question. Clinton ensured that Bernie would lose. That is why he went to the White House and met with Obama. Only after that meeting did Bernie appear to support Hillary.

Brazile has revealed that the Democrats suffer from “internal corruption”. The Clinton campaign was keeping the bankrupt Democratic Party alive with their monthly grants. Hillary did not campaign against Trump in many areas because she knew the fix was in. At the same time, the campaign had used the party to circumvent the statutory limits on a number of campaign donations. These limits are much higher for donations to party organizations than for presidential candidates. That, of course, was criminal.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has openly admitted with Brazil’s statement that Clinton’s rigging of the Democratic Party had hurt her. The primaries were “manipulated,” Warren said on demand on CNN. Warren said that the party must immediately move to a fair deal with all candidates so as not to become marginalized.

Hillary is running around the world blaming everyone but herself when she manipulated everything to get the nomination and the blame reflects the fact that she had it all rigged so in her mind she was entitled to win.

Hillary is in London even blaming Nigel Farage and BREXIT. It certainly appears she is either on this vast ego trip, or she is so deranged, she actually believes that she can run again.

Policeman Jeff Payne Arrests Nurse for Refusing to Take Blood from Unconscious patient


Salt Lake City and the university that runs the hospital have settled paying a Utah nurse Alex Wubbels $500,000 for an illegal and abusive arrest by a policeman Detective Jeff Payne who was demanding she take blood from an unconscious patient in violation of his rights. She refused to take his blood without a warrant. The video of her arrest had sparked public outrage at the abuse of the police. Because courts defend the police and they are rarely ever prosecuted, these policies encourage some to be just abusive knowing they can do whatever they want.

Those police officers who are respectful have got to realize that all police officers like this are ruining their own image of those who do respect the public.