Tag Archives: new world order

Nov 9 2017

Bank of England & Real World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Central Banks

Re-Posted Nov 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Without real-world experience, today’s move by the Bank of England would have cost you serious money. Yes, finally after more than a decade the BOE finally raised rates by 25 basis points to 0.50%. The move has been well telegraphed in recent days and having been confirmed the first thing we see is a 1.5% drop in Sterling. There are always reasons why and this one was no exception. Talk that future hikes will be gradual is the top excuse traders are using for sterling’s decline.
Inflation hit 3% in September of this year well above the 2% inflation BOE target so it was only a matter of time for the hike. However, with the future still uncertain ahead of April 2019 and the end of BREXIT talks, it is likely to take a steady hand to drive the 3% back towards target. Gradual rate increases are not what the currency markets wanted to hear but are has been helpful for the long end of the Gilt curve.
It is going to be an extremely difficult task for the Old Lady as she also tries to encourage foreign investment at a time when all help is needed. A weaker currency will not help that hand, but without it, the labour market will suffer.
Weekly bearish Reversal is down at 1.2811 which may well be the target for tomorrow if we see a 300K Non-Farms Payroll report. The close today will have elected Daily Reversals down from 1.3087.
Categories: Central Banks
Nov 9 2017

Hillary What Happened – She Rigged the Democratic Party


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Nov 7, 2017 by Martin Armstrong


Donna Brazile’s new memoir, Hacks, has exposed Hillary Clinton for what she really is – a corrupt manipulative politician. Brazile is the former Democratic party leader.  Behind the curtain, she is known as a foul-mouth boldface liar.  Now Brazile’s book,  reveals that Clinton took control of the party long before deciding who would be the Democrat final candidate. This is what the Clinton’s have been known for – behind-the-scenes manipulation.

Clinton knew that the Democratic party was heavily in debt.  Brazile describes Hillary’s acquisition of the party as an extortion. The Party left behind by Barack Obama inherited $24 million debt of which $15 million was bank debt, and $8 million was owed by the party to suppliers who had not been paid. In real terms, the Democratic Party was bankrupt confirming what our models had been forecasting about the decline in that party.

It was rescued by the Clintons, who had collected massive campaign contributions through their own promises and the use of the State Department. The Clintons steered the party to ensure the nomination would be Hillary’s alone. Clinton secretly took control of the strategy, finances, and staffing of the Democratic Party. That claim has been supported by the publication of fundraising agreements in question. Clinton ensured that Bernie would lose. That is why he went to the White House and met with Obama. Only after that meeting did Bernie appear to support Hillary.

Brazile has revealed that the Democrats suffer from “internal corruption”. The Clinton campaign was keeping the bankrupt Democratic Party alive with their monthly grants. Hillary did not campaign against Trump in many areas because she knew the fix was in. At the same time, the campaign had used the party to circumvent the statutory limits on a number of campaign donations. These limits are much higher for donations to party organizations than for presidential candidates. That, of course, was criminal.

Senator Elizabeth Warren has openly admitted with Brazil’s statement that Clinton’s rigging of the Democratic Party had hurt her. The primaries were “manipulated,” Warren said on demand on CNN. Warren said that the party must immediately move to a fair deal with all candidates so as not to become marginalized.

Hillary is running around the world blaming everyone but herself when she manipulated everything to get the nomination and the blame reflects the fact that she had it all rigged so in her mind she was entitled to win.

Hillary is in London even blaming Nigel Farage and BREXIT. It certainly appears she is either on this vast ego trip, or she is so deranged, she actually believes that she can run again.

Nov 9 2017

Policeman Jeff Payne Arrests Nurse for Refusing to Take Blood from Unconscious patient


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gov’t Incompetence

Re-Posted Nov 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

Salt Lake City and the university that runs the hospital have settled paying a Utah nurse Alex Wubbels $500,000 for an illegal and abusive arrest by a policeman Detective Jeff Payne who was demanding she take blood from an unconscious patient in violation of his rights. She refused to take his blood without a warrant. The video of her arrest had sparked public outrage at the abuse of the police. Because courts defend the police and they are rarely ever prosecuted, these policies encourage some to be just abusive knowing they can do whatever they want.

Those police officers who are respectful have got to realize that all police officers like this are ruining their own image of those who do respect the public.

Nov 9 2017

Alimony Deduction May Vanish


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Nov 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Trump Tax Reform is in part inspired by the Flat Tax idea of lowering the rate and eliminating deductions. Alimony, or spousal support, is often part of divorce agreements when there’s a big discrepancy in earnings between the two parties and the marriage has endured for more than just a few years. The idea of some “gold-digger” marrying a rich guy and then walking off with 50% of his wealth is really the stuff of fictional legend. Things acquired before a marriage are not suddenly 50% of the potential “gold-digger’s” new found wealth.

What is interest is the whole problem with alimony. In 2015, according to the data from the Internal Revenue Service, an estimated 598,888 taxpayers claimed the alimony deduction on their Form 1040. Those deductions came off the top of one’s income. The IRS reported that total of more than $12.3 billion was deducted in 2015 for alimony payments.

Here is where the problem comes in. The IRS tries to match the deduction for on the opposite side the spouse must declare it as income and that is subject to tax. According to a 2014 Treasury report, when they tried to match the deductions they discovered there was about 20% less being reported on the receiving end.

Under the elimination of deductions, alimony payments may disappear. That will seriously impact divorce settlements going forward and may result in others going back to court to ask for reductions. What may come to light is those spouses who have not been declaring the alimony. Could become interesting.

I had a friend who remained married and lived together he said because (1) it was too expensive to get divorced, and (2) nobody wanted custody of the children who were draining the resources in perpetual school loans.

Nov 9 2017

Ferguson Riots Have Another Face – Police Raise 23% of Revenue in Fines


Armstrong Economics Blog/Corruption

Re-Posted Nov 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The town of Ferguson made headlines as riots appeared. Who will not forget the police with military gear acting like an invading army. Many supported the police and much of the Black Lives Matter movement began there. The story nobody wanted to tell was that the police of Ferguson have a real attitude problem that sparked the riot. That is because they are trained to raise money for the town. Ferguson uses police and the Courts to prey on its residents to raise money and 23% of its entire budget is based upon writing tickets and handing out the maximum fines. They then jail people who can’t pay.

Ferguson expects to raise $3.09 million of projected $13.26 in revenue from fines and fees. They use the police to raise money. For example, an unmowed lawn in Ferguson will be fined between $77 and $102, though in some other cities it’s a $5 offense. Take a 2-week vacation, and you have a ticket when you come home.

This is the entire problem. No government should be allowed to fine people PERIOD! You should be ordered to pay to a charity of your choice – but not to the government. Remove the “money” from their incentive and we will return the rule of law to what it should be – justice.

Nov 5 2017

Rewriting History Continues


Armstrong Economics Blog/History

Re-Posted Nov 5, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

A historic Episcopal church in Alexandria, Va., has made the decision to move a pair of plaques that paid tribute to Confederate Gen. Robert E. Lee and President George Washington. Both were former parishioners and the plaques were displayed on either side of the altar at Christ Church in Alexandria.

General Robert E. Lee had written to the New York Times and said he would free all his slaves and that was before the war.  It just seems as if this drive to rewrite history is going too far. I had gone into East Germany through CheckPoint-Charlie before the Berlin Wall fell in 1989. To my shock, almost nothing is left. The wooden walkway I had to walk on because there were mines on either side of me is gone. Granted, it was a symbol of oppression. But destroying it means the generations that follow will never see what it was.

If you remove all the monuments to the American Civil War, you will also forget the history. This is also what the Taliban did in Afghanistan and what ISIS has done in Iraq. If history offends, it is not right to try to eliminate it and pretend it never happened. That is a sure-fire way to make sure history repeats if nobody remembers past mistakes.

Nov 5 2017

The Cycle Keeps Going – Everyone Gets their Spot in Fame


Armstrong Economics Blog/Understanding Cycles

Re-Posted Nov 5, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong, I had stopped watching TV a decade ago. Then one late night in August 2015, for no particular reason, I switch on some Swedish channel, and voila! I see The Forecaster. It shattered me… I’m your faithful follower ever since. If anyone deserves a Nobel in Economics – or Peace – it is you, Sir. I hope that day will come.

Now, I have a few questions for you. The problem of overpopulation; what is the future for struggling, abandoned Ukraine; is there an end for the Russian Empire? If you will have time and wish to comment any of these, I will greatly appreciate your thoughts. Many thanks for your shared generosity, Sir.
All the best to you and your family,
AM

ANSWER: Nature has its way of solving overpopulation. Viruses constantly mutate and antibiotics cannot fight a virus. It was the Black Death which wiped out 50% of the population of Europe on average. It has always been cyclical. Then we have war, which also thins the herd. Cycles will take care of that issue.

Ukraine will survive. Its biggest problem is corruption. You can change the head of state, but the body remains. You will see another revolution as the economy turns down and again they will overthrow the establishment.

All empires die. Both Russia and the United States will not look the same 50 years from now. The global economy is shifting toward China. They will become the financial capital of the world after 2032.

The world will survive. It will just keep on going. The politics changes and everyone gets their 15 minutes of fame. Sweden used to also be a great power against Russia

Nov 4 2017

The Butter Shortage in France – Thank You EU


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture

Re-Posted Nov 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 


There is a butter shortage in Europe that has seen prices soar by 300% without speculators. The problem can be traced to the end of milk-production quotas in April 2015 directed by the EU that led to a glut early last year in Europe. Centralized planning just never gets it right. Setting regulations requiring the production of butter is just something politicians are never good at. Once the quotas were eliminated, the artificial prices dropped drastically and then farmers stopped producing.

Now with the collapse in production, a shortage took place and then prices have soared. The timing was rather special because, on a global perspective, milk product exporters were curbing their own output in the United States and stopped selling abroad. The higher domestic demand was sparked by New Zealand, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, had experienced lower production due to droughts.

The French like their croissants that require butter. The French stores have refused to pay three times more for butter so even the French farmers have been selling to the rest of Europe. France has gone into a massive butter shortage by at least 30% of the demand cannot be met.

Nov 4 2017

Crimea & Carving up the World


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Nov 4, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

ukraine-ethnic-divide-data

COMMENT: Dear Marty
You mention that Crimea was taken by Russia. However, this is just the MSM view. The West is accused of fermenting the problem in Ukraine which precipitated this. The people voted in a referendum with 31 international observers, 95% to reunify with Russia where they had belonged since 1783. Why does the West not recognize the referendum??

Ukraine had passed a law making Russian not the first language after the coup. The people of Crimea have voted in overwhelming numbers and by an overwhelming margin to leave Ukraine and to federate with Russia. The majority population in Crimea speaks Russian, identifies with Russia and was formally a part of Russia until the region was transferred to Ukraine as a largely administrative measure in 1954 when Ukraine and Russia were full republics united in one country: the Union of Socialist Soviet Republics.

REPLY: From the outset, my position was that Ukraine should have been split according to language. Borders have been drawn by politicians, and this policy has given us so many problems over the years. It is language and culture that should define a national border. It is also wrong for the refugees to enter Sweden and then refuse to adopt the culture of that nation demanding their own laws will apply in specific regions. This is not like colonizing the Moon.

Yanukovych_Viktor

What I would disagree with you on is that the West instigated the revolution. I personally have friends who were in Maidan and they were not puppets of the CIA. The revolution was over the corruption in the Yanakovich administration and the extortion of small businesses as his sons were running a protection operation.

The West did instigate the civil war in Syria. That was to help Qatar get a pipeline through Syria to Europe in order to compete with Russia. That was the whole issue and Obama’s agenda.

The vast majority of people in Crimea were Russian with Tartars as well. Crimea was Russian and was given to Ukraine to manage by the Soviet Union. It is Russian by culture and the sanctions against Russia are political for economic reasons and are not based upon the desire of the people of Crimea. The people should decide the same as they should decide in Catalonia, Scotland, Northern Ireland, etc., etc..

Nov 3 2017

Trump’s Tax Reform


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Nov 3, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

 

These days, US President Donald Trump is pushing his number one agenda of his term in office – major tax reform. Trump has been meeting with some of his own party senators seeking approval for the planned tax reform he is hoping will be signed by the end of December at the latest for a Christmas present. The negotiations on the details are in the final stages. If the reform is very real indeed, and make no mistake about it, this would be a tremendous triumph for Trump and for the nation as a whole. Trump has the potential to take the United States counter-cyclical (cycle inversion) that would actually put a tremendous amount of pressure on the rest of the world.

There are some who are concerned about removing the tax deduction for state income taxes. Deducting state income taxes from your Federal taxes has been quietly talked about behind the curtain for some time. It was also one factor in my own relocate out of New Jersey to Florida. The elimination of the deduction for state and local taxes will be a major death blow for the high taxed states like California, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut etc..

The states have been effectively double-dipping. I remember when the New Jersey state income tax was put in. The politicians said it would cost you nothing because you could deduct it from your federal taxes. Essentially, it was the way for the state to covertly get more money that they were not accountable for. That game is coming to an end. If Trump eliminates that deduction, then and ONLY then will the people start to hold the states accountable for the first time EVER! Repealing it would increase federal revenue by $1.3 trillion over the decade

Deductions would remain for mortgage interest and charitable contributions. Additionally, the standard deduction would nearly double to $12,000 for individuals and $24,000 for married couples.