Tag Archives: The Forecaster

Jun 25 2018

Italy will No Longer Recuse Migrant Ships from Libya


Armstrong Economics Blog/Italy

Re-Posted Jun 24, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Italy will no longer rescue immigrants sailing from Libya. They have withdrawn their Italian Coast Guard and instructed captains of vessels that from now on, ships in the area off Libya should apply for help to the Libyan Coast Guard. Up to now, the Italian Coast Guard has played an important role in coordinating refugee rescue operations outside its own waters. According to Maritime Law, the coordinator of a rescue operation must provide the refugees with a safe haven. Italy will no longer provide that status off the coast of a foreign country. Ital began recusing ships back in 2015. Under Maritime Law, once they did that, they were obligated to give them shelter. Here back in 2015, they recused 1,000 but most of these are just men, not families with women and children.

Categories: Italy
Jun 25 2018

Italy & Refugee Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized

Re-Posted Jun 22, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

The Refugee Crisis in Europe is tearing it apart and all of this began with a unilateral decision by Merkel when her polls declined because of her tough policy on Greece. The refusal to compensate Italy and to demand they take in refugees but denies them the right to send them north proves the very point that I have been getting from Italy behind the curtain – they feel they are an occupied country.

Italy said it will seize two migrant rescue ships in the Mediterranean, as this refugee policy of the EU continues to worsen. We are up against politicians in Brussels and Germany who simply refuse to admit that they made serious mistakes. They fear that admitting that will ruin their personal careers so the entire European Union must suffer. Now the two German NGO ships carrying refugees who are really economic migrants looking for a free lunch “will be seized” to determine their legal status according to Italy.

The response from Italy comes on the heels of the insensitive remarks of French President Emmanuel Macron who called this the “leprosy” of anti-EU feeling, which is only angering the Italian populist government and the people. This is where this feeling that is related to me is building that they have NO SAY in the fate of their own country and they have simply become an occupied country as if they lost the war and Germany won.

Italy sparked the fresh round of discontent earlier this month when it refused to take in the Aquarius refugee ship, which was carrying 630 migrants rescued off the coast of North Africa. Malta also refused to accept the ship and so it went off to Spain. If Spain refuses, Greece, and Portugal, then perhaps the ships will go beyond the Pillars of Hercules and sail to France and Belgium so Brussels can be inundated itself. Perhaps then the policy will change.

Jun 25 2018

2032 – How Hard Do We Fall?


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Posted Jun 22, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Hi Martin,

First, I’d like to offer my condolences on your mother’s passing. It feels to me that you must take great satisfaction in the fact that she must have been very proud of your accomplishments, and what you are trying to do for the average person. To me, that is the ultimate goal of a child; in thanking their parents for everything they have done.

Concerning the blog entry of “Crash & Burn & The Sixth Wave”, you write that it all depends upon if we begin the process in 2021. My interpretation – having followed you for years now – is that the people must rise up and push back against higher taxation, and demand reform and/or it could hinge on the Euro breaking apart, which provides the path to follow for the rest of us.

I believe you meant that if the people just acquiesce and do nothing – like in 2008, then those in power continue to run the economy for their benefit, causing the social fabric to continue to be torn apart between 2021-2032, (which means continued record low birth rates, low productivity, record low levels of capex, record suicide rates, etc) until it finally crumbles by 2032, leading to civil unrest. Have I got this right?

Thanks again for everything that you do.

Danny

ANSWER: We have to understand that this will be the third such sequence of the Sixth Wave. At the end of the first sequence, we have civilization going into a Dark Age. That also coincided with the energy output of the sun declining and the massive volcanic eruption of Thera (Santorini), which ended the Minoan culture. That is when Mycenae invaded as well as the conquest of Troy. The last wave peaked in 175.35 AD, and after that we have the political unrest and collapse into 268 AD. I for one have a personal hope that we can avoid that outcome. In both cases, this is when the energy output of the sun dropped into a cold period where the Greeks became the sea people and migrated back to Africa. The second sequence saw the invasion of the barbarians as they moved south and overthrew the Roman Empire. The wall around Rome was not built until 270 AD. If we keep sticking our finger in a light socket and getting zapped, are we unable to learn from experience? The question in my mind is how hard will we land?

This is the cycle, it is NOT my “opinion” and I would prefer to point it out and say we can change the outcome if we understand the causes. There is no stopping the cycle. All I believe we are capable of doing is changing the degree of volatility. This is clearly the end of the West as a world economic power. The financial capital of the world will be shifting to China and Asia after 2032.

Even if we look at the hatred poured on Trump, this is indicative of how civilization collapses. It does not matter if you agree or disagree with Trump. This sort of hatred and the personal attacks, especially led by CNN, is so destructive I fear what comes AFTER Trump. There is absolutely NO POSSIBLE WAY that anyone who would really try to help the situation will come to power. CNN has guaranteed that nobody in the right mind would dare to be president. The only person will be a career politician who will NEVER look at the cycle. Instead, they will fill their pockets before they leave office. CNN loved Hillary. The Clintons stole a couch when they left the White House and had to return it. When you go to a hotel you might take all the soaps, but you do not leave with the bed.

If we do not realize what is happening, then yes, our own complacency will be our doom

Jun 25 2018

Coming Crisis: Emerging Market Debt


Armstrong Economics Blog/Emerging Markets

Re-Posted Jun 22, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; Just to clarify, a continued rate hike in dollars will send Emerging Market debt into chaos and possibly default. Is this both public and private?

Thank you.

You are a voice in the wilderness

PK

ANSWER: Oh yes. Both public and private emerging market debt raised money in dollars. A 2% increase in interest rates could spark a sharp rise in the proportion of emerging market corporate debt issues at risk of default. This is true especially in Brazil, Turkey, and Indi

Jun 25 2018

Merkel Extracted €2.9 billion in Interest from Greece


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Jun 22, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Angela Merkel promised the German people that she would not just hand Greeks money as she does with the refugee, no, she would make them pay dearly for allowing Goldman Sachs to structure deals to get them in the Eurozone. Indeed, she has kept her word. In response to a parliamentary question from the Green Party, the German government had to release figures which revealed that Merkel has acted more like a loan shark making €2.9 billion in interest payments on Greek bonds since 2010 despite the ECB moving rates negative. Merkel bought Greek government bonds as part of an EU deal to prop up the struggling Greek economy since 2010. The bonds were bought by the Bundesbank and then transferred to the federal treasury.

This certainly gives new meaning to the pictures of Greek citizens paying dearly for the shenanigans of politicians. The Protestant Reformation is where we draw the line with the birth of Capitalism. The reason we draw the line there is because previously, the Catholic Church had forbidden what Merkel has just done – exploit someone when they are down and out. It was called the Sin of Usury. You were supposed to “help” a fellow in his time of need. The Catholics would have been excommunicated if they engaged in banking. The Protestant Reformation was funded by wealthy Catholic merchants who wanted to compete with the Jews and enter the banking field. The Protestant Reformation thus did not adopt the Sin of Usury so Christians became bankers and could borrow as well as lend. That is where the economy began to be leveraged and this Capitalism was born.

Jun 25 2018

Accidental Honesty – Chief Canadian NAFTA Negotiator Slips-up on Camera and Admits There’s No Actual Negotiations Taking Place…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 24, 2018 by

Whoopsie – During a debriefing session between Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland, Canadian politicians and business leaders, the chief NAFTA negotiator for Canada Steve Verheul accidentally told the group, while cameras were rolling, there were no actual NAFTA negotiations taking place.

When a seemingly shocked participant then asked a follow-up question about how could Steve Verheul reconcile that admission against earlier statements about an upcoming  Memo of Understanding (MOU), Ms. Freeland quickly shut down the discussion -in french- until the cameras left the meeting.  [Watch Video Segment Here]

Council Question: “Do you still meet your counterparts? Do you still have committees that are working?  What is the status of the negotiations?

Steve Verheul: “We don’t have any active negotiations. I haven’t talked to them in a little while.”

Council Question: “Since, …since?”

Steve Verheul: “Two or three weeks. Um, I’ll have the odd conversation, but no real engagement, no real negotiation session.”

Council Question: “And when we hear that you were close to a kind of MOU [Memo of Understanding] what was the basis of that?”

Chrystia Freeland: awkward interruption in French. (watch below)

What became evident within the exchange is the Canadian government trying to hide the lack of NAFTA progress from concerned citizens inside Canada.  In essence, the Canadian government is lying to their citizens about the possibility of a NAFTA agreement.

The Canadian economy contracting.  Last month the Canadian economy dropped 31,000 full-time jobs.  Amid an economy one-tenth the size of the U.S, that would be a comparative single-month job loss of 310,000 in the United States.

By contrast the U.S. economy is firing an all cylinders as massive investment flows into America.  In the same month the Canadian economy dropped 31k FT jobs, the U.S. economy added over 223,000 new jobs.

Ms. Freeland and Justin from Canada are trying to keep their electorate from comprehending what is about to happen.  The video segment is a brief window into the collective desperation amid a central cast of left-wing economic characters who are focused on feelings and political sensibilities.

The accidental video snippet was also captured and tweeted:

Two words:…. “Wilbur Ross”

Jun 25 2018

Mars -v- Venus: Three Reality Disconnected Canadians Talk U.S. Relations and NAFTA…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 24, 2018 by

Seek first to understand.  During an assembly of Canadian left-spectrum pundits the U.S. and Canada relationship is the topic; the backdrop is the economic consequences, trade and NAFTA.   In this group the high-minded Canadians express their views, their wounded sensibilities, and yet simultaneously highlight an important strategic flaw.

Within their political frame-of-reference, they cannot fathom the tenuous nature of their dependency.  They think they are more important than they are. Their inability to accept the weakness of their economic position is based on their feelings. Pride is very dangerous in negotiations amid apex predators. If you are prideful you provide a strategic advantage for the opposition.  In negotiations, President Trump doesn’t care about ‘feelings’ or opinions toward his approach.

The Canadian economic position is ‘not to lose‘, the Trump position is to win.  There is a huge strategic difference within those two perspectives.

Jun 24 2018

President Trump Hosts Roundtable, MAGAnomic Economy Discussion in Las Vegas – 4:20pm Livestream


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 23, 2018 by

President Trump is hosting a roundtable MAGAnomic meeting in Las Vegas with business leaders and professionals.  The discussion centers around ongoing benefits from the tax reform initiative; the administration policy toward trade rebalancing; and the ongoing America-First investment and business development plans.

UPDATE: Video Added

Anticipated start time 4:20pm EDT:

WH Livestream Link – RSBN Livestream Link – Alternate Livestream Link

Jun 24 2018

President Trump Weekly Address – Immigration Reform Needed…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 23, 2018 by

President Trump discusses the need to stronger enforcement and immigration reform in this weekly address:

Jun 24 2018

JSW Steel Announces New $500 Million Investment in Ohio…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on June 22, 2018 by

JSW Steel has announced an agreement to purchase Acero Junction facility in Mingo Junction, Ohio. Thanks specifically to the Trump administration economic plan, it is investing upwards of $500 million in the old Ohio steel plant that was built in 1929, instead of constructing a new facility in India.

The project is expected to generate an estimated 300 permanent jobs in a town of just 3,400 people.  “We are going to revitalize that facility and that entire community,” CEO John Hritz said: