Posted originally on the conservative tree house on November 20, 2022 | sundance
Wall Street -vs- Main Street
Corporate Donors -vs- MAGA
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If They Say You’re Too Small to Make a Difference, Tell Them to Sleep in a Room with a Mosquito
Category Wall Street
The Reedy Creek Improvement District
Armstrong Economics Blog/Politically Correct Re-Posted Apr 4, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
Are you familiar with the Reedy Creek Improvement District? Perhaps you have heard of Disney. A 1967 piece of legislation permitted Disney to operate independently from the government. That’s right – Congress awarded Disney with special privileges to operate above the law:
“The district encompasses approximately 25,000 acres in both Orange and Osceola counties, servicing 19 landowners, including Walt Disney Co. and its wholly-owned affiliates. RCID operates in accordance with its Charter and Chapter 189, Florida Statutes, The Uniform Special Districts Accountability Act.”
Their special privileges have come under scrutiny in recent years as Disney dealt with the coronavirus separately from the state of Florida. However, the company is now intent on preserving the woke agenda and defying state law by acting as a moral guardian. Former Disney CEO Bob Iger said he plans to continue fighting Governor DeSantis on the Parental Rights in Education bill. “It’s about right and wrong,” Iger told reporters at CNN while denying that his opposition had any political backing.
Their woke message bit them at their last shareholder meeting where CEO Bob Chapek stated he would actively seek to oppose the bill. They were accused of turning a blind eye to the Uyghur camps in China. “Disney executives say they will not release any new films in Russia due to Vladimir Putin’s aggression against Ukraine. Since when do ESG principles mean you get to support genocidal regimes in Asia, but you must oppose colonial warmongering in Europe?” one shareholder questioned. In fact, a third of shareholders are now requesting that Disney take action against China despite profits.
Why is a company becoming entrenched in a state bill surrounding teaching children about sexuality? How will this bode for shareholders? Interestingly, Socrates noted in advance that this would be a volatile week for Disney:
“The week of March 28th with the opposite trend implied thereafter into the week of April 4th which is a Directional Change.”
DeSantis is now considering repealing their ability to operate as an independent district. “Disney has alienated a lot of people now,” DeSantis said at a West Palm Beach press conference. “And so the political influence they’re used to wielding, I think has dissipated. And so the question is, why would you want to have special privileges in the law at all? And I don’t think that that we should.”
Time will tell whether Disney has sacrificed itself for the woke agenda.
President Trump MAGA Rally – Commerce, Georgia 7:00pm ET Livestream
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 26, 2022
Tonight, President Donald Trump travels to Commerce, Georgia, for a rally at the Banks County Dragway (formerly international speedway). President Trump will be delivering remarks in support of David Perdue Candidate for Governor, Herschel Walker Candidate for U.S. Senate, and other endorsed candidates from the state.
The anticipated start time for President Trump’s remarks is 7:00pm ET. Rumble Links Below:
RSBN Livestream Link – Trump Campaign Livestream – Alternate Livestream Link
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President Trump Interview, Discusses the Lawsuit He Filed Thursday Against the Trump-Russia Conspiracy Crew
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on March 25, 2022
Earlier today, President Donald Trump called in for an interview with Glenn Beck. The first topic of inquiry was the lawsuit President Trump filed yesterday against the group who created the Trump-Russia conspiracy narrative. {Direct Rumble Link} WATCH:
NATO – UKRAINE- RUSSIA
Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Mar 25, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Putin is a madman. He has invaded a sovereign nation and Russia has to pay for that.
SV
ANSWER: Obviously, you are believing the propaganda from the West. Putin has stated from the outset that he was NOT seeking to occupy or conquer Ukraine. Just look at the numbers. Estimates of Russian troop numbers in Ukraine have ranged from anywhere between 100,000 and 200,000 in recent weeks. Now, if he was intending to really “invade” a sovereign nation, you would assumed that the standard military strength that you want is between 2 to 3 times your opponent.
OK. So the question becomes: What is the size of the Ukrainian Army? That is about 297,000 and they are NATO trained forces. They are not farmers and hicks – but professional soldiers. So the press that portrays that Putin is losing and this is taking too long are all based upon the idea that the objective is conquest. But Putin has stated from the outset, and he has NOT deviated, that he wanted Ukraine to be demilitarized and remains as “NEUTRAL” as according to the Belgrade Agreement.
This is a PROXY war and Putin understand that now. Zelensky is unwilling to let Donbas go nore Crimea and his statement that he asked to join NATO was rejected, but he states the “door remains open” and NATO has trained the Ukrainian Army so they are up to NATO standards without formally being in NATO. Putin understand all of this. He has an army of 850,000 active personnel and 250,000 in reserve. China had 2,695,000.00 in 2018 and may be approaching 3 million right now.
The biggest NATO force in Europe is Turkey with about 445,000. The next is France with 208,000, Germany 1ith 189,000, Italy with 174,000, the UK with 156,000, Spain at 123,000, Poland 121,000, Greece 106,000, and everyone else under 100,000. The US has 1,352,000 and Canada 71,000. This means that in Europe, NATO has 1.3 million. If China assasited Russia, that would be a force of 3.7 million.
The problem this time is that the US has 1.3 million total, down from 2.2 million under Reagan. The US is clearly counting on non-conventional weapons. So have we reached the point where nukes are the ONLY line of defense?
You can see that Ukraine with 297,000 actually has the largest army in continental Europe that confronts Russia. Therefore, if Ukraine was part of NATO, it would have a conventional force of about 1.6 million including Turkey. That would outnumber Russia at about 1.1 million and that once again means a conventional attack on Russia would need to go nuclear to defend against Europe.
The risk of escalation here will be 8.6 weeks into this confrontation which will bring us to the week of April 18th, followed by the first week of May. The sanctions imposed on Russia are more than just insane, they have set in motion famine in Europe. Even French President Macron has been briefed on this real threat. He has urged an immediate emergency plan for food security at the G7 that has been triggered by the war in Ukraine. Moscow has urged that the longer the battle in Ukraine continues being the breadbasket of Europe, this war could result in “inevitable famine” as soon as 12 to 18 months from now. Because the bulk of the exports from Ukraine feed Northern Africa, he has warned this could be serious. Indeed, our model is pointing to rising civil unrest over food and corruption.
This DEMONIZING Putin is highly dangerous. All the Russian leaders see this as a proxy war and they will respond even much more aggressively if Putin was not there. My concern is the US keeps cheering on the Ukrainians and they NEVER have any strategy other than the immediate victory. The aftermath they seem to never consider. Remove Putin and this is an attack upon Russia and its culture, that pushes the world to the brink and we cannot rule out that it wo0uld be a warning to all of Europe by nuking Kyiv as a warning to all of Europe – is this what you really want?
Madeleine Albright & Yugoslavia
Armstong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT #1: Hi Mr. Armstrong,
I hope you are doing well.
Talking about Neocons, as a boy, 12 years old, I’ve survived the Yugoslavia bombing by NATO 1999 and Madeleine Albright was one of the biggest influencers to attack Yugoslavia where many civilians died. She died on the same date when they decided to attack Yugoslavia 23 years ago. I guess cycles are everywhere.
Thanks for all that you do.
Best regards,
M
COMMENT #2: The US killed countless civilians in Yugoslavia. We will never for get that.
K
COMMENT #3: dear Marty, dear Team,
thank you for your unique analyses which help me to understand how our world really functions. please help me to understand what NEOCONS are. thank you. Victor
V
REPLY: Madeleine Albright I met once and the feeling I got was one of a deep seated coldness. She, along with Hillary, were Neocons, which are NOT the Deep State which tends to be the agencies who are more focused on domestic power. The Neocons cannot sleep at night worrying about international enemies who must be defeated. Albright would conjure up hatred for a leader to justify attacking them with no regard for all the other people who die in such conflicts.
Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright introduced Hillary Clinton at an event in New Hampshire, telling the crowd and voters in general: “There’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other!” President Bill Clinton named Albright the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations shortly after he was inaugurated in 1993.
Albright was true to her convictions that were immovable and she never had a problem waging war. Some would say she was more ruthless than any man just so she could climb that latter of equality. I think that certainly applies to Hillary.
Should we Cheer for Putin to Lose?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Russia Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
While the Neocon strategy of DEMONIZING an adversary as they have done to Putin, the very same strategy was used to get people to absolutely hate Donald Trump. The more someone hates Trump still, the more susceptible they are to simple techniques of mind manipulation. This has led many to cheer for the Ukrainians to defeat Russians and we have the White House calling Putin a War Criminal when you could say the same thing about the US leaders that started the endless saga of wars on false pretenses or took out civils with drones when they wrongly thought they were terrorists.
The White House appears to be under the influence of the Neocons who just always advocate war. Make no mistake about it, these Neocons are not confined to just the Democrats or Republicans. They share a love for war and the hatred of everyone they perceive to be an enemy. It’s tempting to think that Putin will suffer a defeat and democracy could revive in Russia, but a more likely scenario is total world chaos. Russia is also comprised of Muslims who number about 14 million or roughly 10% of the total population. Then there are different cultures and you will see internal chaos and separatist movements armed with nukes.
Putin is not a fool and he is actually honoring his word. He is not trying to conquer Ukraine. His column of tanks had stopped as a show of force and intimidation. He has not ordered just total annihilation. The US strategy is we go in and flatten everything targeting water and power grid. Put took the power station but did not turn off the power. The West portrays this as Putin is stalled and the Ukrainians could defeat the Russians. But this seems to be propaganda all designed to wear down the moral of the Russian troops and sway public opinion for Ukraine.
While the press also portrays that Putin’s nation has now been subjected to an isolation greater than any nation has ever experienced by any major power in history, it was US sanctions to cut off the fuel to Japan that caused them to attack Pearl Harbor. There were later even Congressional investigations into FDR and did he deliberately try to create a situation to get the USA into World War II. Congress simply said the allegations were inconclusive.
Since late February, Russia has been hit with punishing economic, trade and financial sanctions. Putin struck back and said all energy sales to unfriendly nations will now be in Rubles. Saudi Arabia also agreed with China to sell oil in Yuan. These are historically critical events that have torn the world economy asunder. There will NEVER BE A RETURN TO NORMAL.
So while the Western Press cheers and reports that Russia is careering toward a debt default, they forget that the default will be on the West. A very rapid technological decoupling is also underway dividing the world economy and that will threaten free trade and the end of economic growth. Indeed, US GDP Growth rate peaked in real terms.
The mass withdrawal of American firms from Russia will have a profoundly negative impact moving forward and the world economy is shrinking rapidly. Russia isn’t some weak power like Iraq. Russia is a major power whose population was, until recently, deeply connected to its larger global environment. The White House thinks that Russians will blame Putin rather than Biden. Eastern European states like Serbia and in the Middle East are looking at the United States as the problem being arrogant and interfering in everyone else’s affairs. It is without question that the United States has declare war on Russia. This is how World War II began with countries attacking one another in the financial markets.
So while the Neocons lick their lips at the thought of overturning Putin and controlling Russia before they turn on China, they are clearly not looking long-term. They took out Saddam Hussein who kept the religious zealots in their place. Once he was removed, the Middle East saw the rise of ISIS. The US has been covertly funding the Ukrainian Nazis to keep up their fight against Donbass.
Let us may no mistake here. The Neocons pushed and funded through the CIS the Taliban for then they were the anti-Soviet resistance. The CIA Special Activities Division sent paramilitary officers to equip the Mujihadeen forces against the Soviet Army. The US therefore funded Taliban mainly to assist in ending the Soviet’s occupation in Afghanistan. However, the Neocons can never think past the end of their nose. They have no long-term strategies, only win what is immediately in front of them. The taliban benefited from expanded foreign military support from the United States. They then used that training against US troops who were in search of terrorists from 911.
The foolish view among the Neocons is they think bringing Democracy to the Middle East or now to Russia and China will somehow make them friends or stable is an absolute joke. The idea of creating a “Moscow Spring” by punishing the Russian people until they do what the CIS and Neocons demand does not make the costs of conflict lead worth it. Marx brought his ideas and it cost over 200 million lives to install communism. America is hated for its interference by the Neocons in many circles.
Both China and Russia have American arrogance as a common enemy and the Russian or Chinese people will not send them flowers and Xmas cards thanking them for destroy everything they have built since 1989. However, RELIABLE sources in the Middle East, the UAE, Egypt and even Israel are angry over Biden’s sanctions. Yet the Neocons claim that total isolation forced regime change in South Africa. However, they also had no military power to fight back. That is like claiming a fight is fair with one kid has a rubber band and the other a baseball bat.
Somebody in Washington needs to start thinking strategically and realistically about this endeavor to isolate Russia for all that is unfolding at a rapid rate is the disintegration of the world economy. In 1989, then President George H.W. Bush understood there were serious risks with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism. Russia is big and powerful enough that its role in the world economy is vital to the overall health of the international order . The US NEEDS Russia as an economic friend not and adversary for nobody will win with that result.
The Western propaganda is that Russia and China represent authoritarian rule. However, Western governments are no better. Sure, we have elections but then the candidate arrives in Washington and they are told they will vote according to the Party Agenda rendering the image of free elections only just that. In Europe, the people do not vote for the Commission which makes the laws nor for the head of state. We do not live in a Democracy for the people never are allowed to vote on an issue like war or peace.
The likelihood of Putin being overthrown and Democracy is sudden born has less than a zero change of ever being correct.
It’s Not Just Energy – It’s Also Metals
Armstrong Economics Blog/Base Metals Re-Posted Mar 24, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
The outrageous sanctions imposed by Biden on Russia has undermined the entire world economy. Sanctions have never worked and this time they were designed to try to hurt the Russian people so profoundly that they would overthrow Putin. The Ukrainians are even naming Alexander Bortnikov, the Russian Director of the Federal Security Service and a member of Putin’s inner circle, as a successor to the president. Bortnikov has come out and said that Stalin’s Great Purge was necessary whereas Putin rejected Lenin. Be careful what you wish for, as they say.
Stickers are showing up plastered all over gasoline pumps throughout the USA despite Biden trying to blame Putin for his the disruption to the world economy. The US had no national security issue at risk with either Crimea nor DonBass. The Neocons just hate Putin and have used Ukraine as a proxy war toy to get at Putin. Even in Poland the government is pushing for war. Europe desperately needs war for 8.6 years of NEGATIVE interest rates has wiped out pension funds. NY banks will no longer lend against European sovereign debt. They cannot fund the governments any longer and the central bank cannot buy their debt endlessly. The only solution that they see is to default under the pretense of the Great Reset so they NEED war as the diversion with a new Bretton Woods.
But Biden’s sanctions have gone far beyond just energy. Nickel is a vital for it is the largest component in stainless steel production. Alloy steel is also called special steel. Nickel can increase the strength of the alloy and maintain its good plasticity and toughness. Then nickel is also used in the field of batteries, mainly nickel-hydrogen batteries, chromium-nickel batteries, and nickel-manganese batteries. Lastly, very fine nickel powder is often used as a catalyst in the chemical industry. Hence, nickel is vital and it goes beyond just the coins in your pocket which at these prices will be worth more in metal content soon enough.
Yet these sanctions that Biden swore would target only Russia, have disrupted the entire world and not just energy. Tsingshan Holding Group is a major producer of Nickel and it sold hedging position forward to secure its production. But prices doubled thanks to Biden and Tsingshan tried to buy back its hedging positions and that has set off a collapse of the Nickel market in London. Nickel was already breaking out thanks to COVID restrictions. Then the Biden Russian sanctions were insane and you can see the drastic price rally as Tsingshan tried to buy back its hedge.
Nickel prices began to soar after Biden’s sanction on Russia. The rally became a crisis for the LME as producers such as Tsingshan’s brokers desperately tried to buy those nickel contracts back causing a near 70% rise in a single session to stem losses and avoid escalating margin calls. The trading became erradic as brokers kept trying to cover short hedged positions. Hedge funds and other participants were frantically buying nickel, which only propelled the market even higher. Nickel prices had more than doubled reaching more than $100,000 a metric ton.
The LME was sent into crisis. Several smaller brokers were saying they would default at the 9 a.m. margin call if prices stayed at those levels. The LME was forced to suspend the market shortly after 8 a.m. local time or suffer a catastropiuc collapse of the exchange. The brokers could not meet the expected margin calls. Thus, the LME adopted the drastic step of canceling trades that took place before the suspension. They is said to have wiped out $3.9 billion in transactions. Of course, the hedge funds were furious for they were looking a huge unrealized profits. Because of the sudden price shock, the LME had no choice but to suspend trading in hopes that the brokers would collect the funds from their clients. However, the decision to wipe out trades that took place in a free market in good faith is really unprecedented and has shaken the confidence in free markets.
It may be true that the suspension and the canceled trades to settle the catastrophic damage to the free markets created by the Biden sanctions has prevented a near-term collapse of the LME. However, failing to do so may have brought down the entire exchange ending the market where producers can hedge forward.
Tsingshan still owes its brokers, which included JPMorgan, Standard Chartered and BNP as well as a unit of state-owned China Construction Bank Corp. The demand for cash to settle margin calls for a hedger who has sold future production presents a serious crisis. There are serious questions being raised if the price seen in this spike truly reflects the shortage in the supply or just an aberition created by a short-term panic.
Ironically, it was the great expanse of China’s economy which drove Nickel to $54200 a metric ton back in 2007. Nevertheless, where our computer has been bullish on Nickel and it elected even the third Quarterly Bullish Reversal at the end of the 3rd quarter 2021. There was no way the market was heading lower. Clearly, those in charge of hedging were calling the shots from an opinion perspective – not quantitative. For early 2021, Tsingshan began to accumulate a short position. It made statements on its website reflecting its view that the Nickel market was flush and prices should decline. Tsingshan’s short hedge position was equivalent to having sold about 190,000 metric tons on the LME. That would be worth $9.1 billion based on closing prices.
The forecasting view of Tsingshan regarding Nickel is just unfounded. Our model showed that we would start to see a rise in 2022 in price volatility but this is continuing into 2024. The price high may not arrive until 2023 and we may be looking at a new record. This is just another domino in the future of the world economy that just fell over. These Biden Sanctions are not going to be reversed and the pride of politicians is now threatening the entire world economy.
You have not made any comment about the LME Nickel market. In my opinion, this is onether chip of the domino falling which comes to confirm that the collapse of the West is in motion. The loss at Tsingshan is said to be about $8 billion. I have been called in to similar crisis where major corporations have lost billions due to improper hedging. This amount is staggering and clearly reflects that the firm has totally incompetent people in charge of hedging who may be listening to bankers and fundamentals rather than the markets.
Putin puts Biden’s King in Check
Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro € Re-Posted Mar 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
The absolute stupidity of those in the Biden Administration will go down in history as probably the dumbest ever in the history of the world, not just the United States. Besides disrupting energy supplies, and subjecting the world to a shortage of wheat when Russia and Ukraine represent 30% of the world exports, Biden’s sheer stupidity in just reading what his staff of climate zealots tell him is beyond belief. There is a crisis unfolding even in base metals like nickel.
Removing Russian banks from SWIFT but leaving the energy intact so Europe has power, was so brilliant they obviously never played chess. Putin just put Biden’s king in check by ordering Europe to pay for gas now in Rubles. That will provide support for the Ruble, and undermine Europe and its Euro as well as the dollar in the long run.
First of all, when Biden freezes all of Russia’s reserves, why would you continue to get paid in dollars that Biden could freeze? That makes no sense. This is why I warned that using SWIFT as a political tool would destroy the world economy. There is no putting this back together again. The foundation of TRUST has been lost.
What I would do if I were Putin is to create a two-tier monetary system like South Africa once had with the Financial Rand and Domestic Rand. What I would do to put Biden in Checkmate would be to back ONLY the domestic Ruble with gold to restore confidence among the Russian people, but leave the Ruble float for international transactions – the opposite of what FDR did in 1934.
Biden has destroyed the world economy. This is so devastating going forward, that what comes post-2032 when the world economy finally crashes and burns because of these idiots, there will be a whole new regime change on a global scale.
The Laptop from Hell
Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Mar 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
Ihor Kolomoisky is the Oligarch who funded Zelensky and put him in a position to be president. However, this is the very same Kolomoisky who had a “controlling interest” in Burisma Holdings, that employed Hunter Biden as a board member for a widely reported salary of $50,000 per month. Russian media, quoted in State Department emails, referred to Burisma as “part of Kolomoisky’s financial empire.”
It was the same Kolomoisky who publicly said in 2019 that he REFUSED to cooperate with efforts by President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani, to get his help in investigating Hunter Biden and Burisma. House Democrats’ impeachment report on Trump also cited the incident in late 2019 as grounds for impeachment.
Emails from 2015, published last year by the New York Post, show a Kolomoisky protege communicated with Hunter Biden about a meeting between the protege and Joe Biden, then vice president under President Barack Obama. Then court filings from 2019 by a private investigatory firm alleged that legally obtained bank records of Hunter Biden show payments to him from the Kolomoisky-owned PrivatBank.
The REAL character of Zelensky is revealed in his actions. As soon as he became President. Volodymyr Zelensky decided to fire Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk and several leading reformers. Ukraine paid a heavy price for the move in capital outflows and soaring borrowing costs. There was talk of Zelensky finally breaking with leading oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky, but that never took place.
Kolomoisky’s supporters initially prevented a second reading of the banking bill through “legislative spam”, the proposal of thousands of frivolous amendments. Zelensky used COVID to distract people concerning reforms. There was no major effort to make the IMF-backed reforms. The IMF dropped its effort of the long-term Extended Funding Facility for Ukraine to encourage reform to a new policy of a smaller, short-term Stand-By Arrangement, which is confined to budgetary support. Zelensky could have just fired Honcharuk. But instead, he gradually picked off nearly all the ministers who had reputations as reformers. Everything he promised was never carried out. Instead of solving the Donebass dispute, he promoted joining NATO and deliberately antagonized Putin.
All the promises of reforms wooed the European Union, but there was no substance. There were rising concerns that Zelensky was actually selling out to the very people who had run the country under Yanukovich and many saw this as a confirmation that Zelensky was in hock to Kolomoisky. Zelensky never distanced himself from Kolomoisky. In fact, during the election, Igor Valeriyovych told Igor Oleksiyovych that working for Poroshenko was in vain. Kolomoisky allegedly said to Igor Hryniv: “My boy and my girl will be there in the second round anyway”, referring to Yuliya Tymoshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky. Nevertheless, the Kyiv Post reported the allegations that Kolomoisky was behind the release of a tape of Honcharuk mocking Zelensky’s economic knowledge.
Kolomoisky pushed hard for compensation for the nationalization of PrivatBank – which he co-owned until 2016 when the government took control of it due to the $5.6 billion hole in its balance sheet. But the real economic payback appeared to occur elsewhere, as the government showered debt and delivery favors on the Kolomoisky-controlled Ukrnafta and Centrenergo. The government opened corruption cases but seemed to concentrate on Kolomoisky’s enemies from the National Bank of Ukraine and the interlinked leadership of the Investment Capital of Ukraine, often dubbed “[Petro] Poroshenko’s bank”, after the former president.
Here we have Hunter Biden taking money from Kolomoisky who just so happens to be the backer of Zelensky. Biden then hands Zelensky $13.6 billion in aid to fight off the evil Putin. I seriously doubt that money will go to aid Ukrainians.
The corruption in Ukraine is so bad, it may even rank as the #1 black hole in the entire world. When will the West wake up?
Centinel2012 