The International Monetary Fund is not the only option for countries in desperate need of funding. The Financial Times recently reported that China has been sending out tens of billions in secretive “emergency loans” to countries facing financial hardship.
China and others have been known to invest in emerging or struggling economies, but China seems to be upping its aid and has provided more funds than even the World Bank. AidData revealed that Pakistan, Argentina, and Sri Lanka alone had received $32.83 billion since 2017. Former Vice President Mike Pence accused China of using “’debt diplomacy’ to expand its influence. [China] is offering hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure loans to governments from Asia to Africa to Europe and even Latin America.Yet the terms of those loans are opaque at best, and the benefits invariably flow overwhelmingly to Beijing.” Pence claimed that China would prey upon poor nations and take ownership of key infrastructure upon default. Another example of the pot calling the kettle black, so to speak.
Pence used the example of Sri Lanka who was pushed into default, opening room for China to construct a military base in the port of Hambantota. The Atlantic published an article in 2021 to say that Pence’s claims of China ushering in their military to Sri Lanka was a lie, as if China wouldn’t jump on such an opportunity. Last month, in August 2022, China dispatched military ships to Hambantota with the intention of using the port for dual commercial and military use. Remember that Sri Lanka recently overthrew its president and has been in utter disarray — their economy completely collapsed.
“Sri Lanka needs financial assistance, andit would not want to displease China by revoking the permission,” Jehan Perera, executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, told VOA. At this time, they are not building a military base, but it is possible as Chinese companies took out a 99-year lease on the area in 2017. Sri Lanka was seeking a loan from the IMF, but they were unwilling to take on such risky debt. Business is business. Sri Lanka was desperate, and China was willing to come to their aid, but governments only act in their self-interest and would not take on risks if they did not see a way to monetize that risk.
So yes, China is willing to take on the risks that the IMF will not. Unlike the IMF, China does not need to disclose its investments. China is investing less in US and Western debt and has turned its attention to indebted nations. This may be one of the reasons that our computer predicts China will become the next financial capital of the world by 2037.25.
Markus Sporndli, a spokesman for the Federal Department of Finance, said that people could be charged a daily fine of 30 francs for disobeying, but the fee could spike to 3,000 francs. The government is warning that there could be “spot checks” and said they would send authorities if someone reports a resident or business for breaking the law. Switzerland imposed fines and expected neighbors to turn on one another for COVID, and this is yet another power grab.
The law is still being finalized, but this is yet another way for the government to turn the common person into a criminal. The government, not the people, created this energy crisis and now demands that the people suffer for their mismanagement. Some are calling these measures “Green fascism” or “ecofascism.”
Historian Michael E. Zimmerman defined ecofascism as follows: “a totalitarian government that requires individuals to sacrifice their interests to the well-being of the ‘land,’ understood as the splendid web of life, or the organic whole of nature, including peoples and their states.” Expect to see this trend rise as temperatures decline.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 14, 2022 | Sundance
Within the politics of Sweden, the ‘Sweden Democrat‘ party is the equivalent of MAGA Republicans. As a result, the European media call them “far-right.”
As the results of last weekend’s election are finally tabulated, the anti-globalist parties in Sweden have surged to victory. With all of the consequences from globalist policies creating havoc in the country, the political dynamic in Sweden has now flipped.
Do not let this election outcome slip your geopolitical reference point. Current Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson has lost the majority coalition. She has resigned. European leftists are shocked and big mad.
(Dutsche Welle) – Sweden’s right-wing opposition appears to have won in a razor-thin electoral race. The big winner of the elections are the far-right Sweden Democrats, who could become part of government for the first time.Sweden’s right-wing opposition appears to have won a thin majority in the country’s parliament with nearly all votes counted.
Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said that she would resign and that preliminary results were clear enough to draw conclusions. She said that it was important that Sweden gets a new government as soon as possible.
Leader of the nationalist Sweden Democrats, Jimmie Akesson, declared victory and pledged to “put Sweden first.”
Coalition leader Ulf Kristersson of the conservative Moderates is likely to become Prime Minister.
The results were too close to call before postal and overseas votes had been included into the count. So far, the Moderates, Sweden Democrats, Christian Democrats and Liberals hold a two-seat lead over the governing Social Democrats.
Some 99% of votes from all 6,578 voting districts had been counted by late on Wednesday. If results were confirmed, the right-wing opposition would win 176 seats in the 349-seat parliament.
As the current count shows, just 47,000 votes separate the left- and right-wing blocs from each other.
The governing Social Democrats and its coalition would win 173 seats in this instance, the tallies showed.
Never before have the Sweden Democrats, a party who relies on anti-immigration and nationalist rhetoric, been part of a government. The party has so far won more than 20 percent of ballots, becoming the second-biggest party behind outgoing Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson’s Social Democrats, which have dominated Swedish politics since the 1930s. (more)
The far left is eager to repeal 2A. We are not as free as we think. The International Organization for Standardization (ISO), an organization headquartered all the way in Geneva, will be tracking all gun purchases made on credit. The ISO develops standard documentation that is globally recognized. Gun sales were previously listed as “general merchandise,” but the ISO is changing the code.
If you purchase a gun through a credit card, an international agency will document the purchase. Cash is still an option for now, but I expect it will become increasingly difficult to gain access to firearms – at least for those who plan to purchase them legally.
Visa is eager to participate. “Following ISO’s decision to establish a new merchant category code, Visa will proceed with next steps, while ensuring we protect all legal commerce on the Visa network in accordance with our long-standing rules,” they said in a statement. American Express said that they would work with a third-party processor (more people with access to your data) and will implement the code once the details are finalized. Mastercard said they will “turn our focus to how it will be implemented by merchants and their banks as we continue to support lawful purchases on our network while protecting the privacy and decisions of individual cardholders.”
Every credit company will comply. The National Rifle Association is pushing back, but the change is already underway. “The [industry’s] decision to create a firearm-specific code is nothing more than a capitulation to anti-gun politicians and activists bent on eroding the rights of law-abiding Americans one transaction at a time,” National Rifle Association spokesman Lars Dalseide stated to Fox Business.
As a reminder, criminals have access to guns. Joe Biden continually calls on Congress to ban assault weapons, but that is the beginning. Not so coincidentally, Joe Biden’s own family members illegally discarded a gun in a trash can outside a school, but that’s (D)ifferent. The Second Amendment is under fire, and the people must vote accordingly.
As the European Central Bank (ECB) finally begins to raise rates, Greece is rushing to repay its outstanding debt. The failure to consolidate eurozone debt hurt the southern nation, whose debt spiked due to simple currency conversion. Greece remains the most indebted country in the EU. The country received its third bailout in 2018 and has been struggling to pay off its debt, relying mostly on bonds.
Greece is making its next payout ahead of schedule, as it knows that the amount owed will only rise. Greece is set to repay 2.7 billion euros, according to the finance ministry. However, this is a small piece of what they owe as debts have more than tripled since the start of the year.
As the eurozone is facing an inevitable recession, Brussels is sure to hunt down its debts. Greece has been put in a lose-lose situation as its initial debt spiked after the drachma was converted to the euro. Greece’s debt to GDP has soared since joining the euro. The ratio is expected to reach 186.1% by the end of the year, which is slightly better than 2020 (206.3%) and 2021 (193.3%).
The entire EU Crisis began precisely on schedule on the political pi turning point from the major high in 2007. Precisely on the day of the ECM turning point, April 16, 2010 (2010.29), Greece notified the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that it was on the verge of bankruptcy. The eurozone and IMF provided Greece with a 260 billion euro loan – a small price to pay to prevent the European economy from crashing. Greece repaid the IMF 28 billion between 2010 and 2014. More money was requested a few years later. Fast forward to 2022, and Greece needed an additional 7 billion euros through bond sales. They are simply trying to stay afloat.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022
There is a particular historical irony in the timing. On the same day King Charles III ascends the throne, previously Europe’s most isolated from consequence – yet loudest voice in chasing the catastrophic climate change energy policies, the British government is forced to reverse course on years of energy regulations and restrictions.
Britain’s new Prime Minister Liz Truss announced, “a new round of oil and gas licensing will come next week with more than 100 licenses issued. A moratorium on fracking will be lifted and planning permission can be sought where there is local support,” in an urgent emergency effort to lower energy costs for British citizens.
The move comes in combination with a government plan to help citizens and businesses cope with skyrocketing prices for electricity and home heating fuel. The climate change chickens have come home to roost throughout Europe and the British government is urgently trying to head-off the calamitous consequences.
Inside the media announcements of the Truss plan, the biggest concern expressed is how the financial and multinational banking sector (the ESG investment groups) will respond to the government position. After decades of ideological “green” outlooks flowing into the energy industry, the biggest concern expressed in the financial analysis is how a reversal by such a large economic system will reverberate.
The climate change ideology has a stranglehold on the energy sector of the economy, this move by Great Britain would be the most significant push-back in decades. The minority green activists are apoplectic that they may lose control over the majority of opinion. The economics of a reversal in energy policy could reverberate throughout the western alliance, particularly in Europe. It will be interesting to see whether this shift in U.K. policy has ripple effects in the U.S.
LONDON, Sept 8 (Reuters) – Britain’s move to green-light dozens of new oil and gas fields will leave investors and banks with a tough PR job as Britain struggles to shore up its energy security whilst sticking to its climate commitments.
Starting new oil and gas projects runs counter to the world’s shift away from fossil fuels in the fight against global warming and a commitment at last November’s U.N. climate talks to phase down their use.
Yet runaway inflation amid conflict in Ukraine has forced the hand of new British prime minister Liz Truss as Russian President Putin seeks to use energy as a weapon this winter.
Britain will launch a new round of oil and gas licensing next week with more than 100 licenses issued, part of a wider package of measures to tackle the energy crisis announced by Truss on Thursday.
And Britain’s not alone in reassessing its energy strategy. Germany, for example, has been forced to turn back to even dirtier thermal coal to help fuel its power plants and keep the lights on, hampering short-term efforts to rein in climate-damaging carbon emissions.
But for energy companies and the investors, bankers and insurers that finance them, new investment in fossil fuels also presents a challenge given many have made their own pledges to reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.
“This will absolutely hinder companies’ … ability to hit their climate targets,” said Pietro Bertazzi, global director of policy engagement and external affairs at non-profit environmental disclosure platform CDP. (read more)
This is the first crack in the western alliance and the ‘climate change’ agenda of the World Economic Forum as it relates to energy policy and ultimately control over human life within the alliance.
The war in Ukraine was being used as a justification to explain the consequences of European energy policy, particularly rapidly increasing costs for energy and food, but the war in Ukraine was not the cause. The true root cause of the exploding inflation and economic mess was the Build Back Better agenda, and the series of policies dictated from within it, that each nation willingly accepted.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 10, 2022 | Sundance
War is an outcome of ideology and economics, and the latter is perhaps the most powerful weapon. As the harsh reality of Europe’s insufferable decades-long efforts to embrace the virtues of climate change begin to settle in, the reasonable adults in the conversation are able to see how their weakness is being exploited by their adversary.
On Sept 7, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen held a press conference in Brussels, announcing five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine.” {Go Deep}
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin made it very clear that any further efforts to weaken his economy, via western sanctions and interventionist efforts against his economy, would be met with retaliation in the form of cutting off all oil and gas supplies to Europe. It appears the Europeans now understand the nature of their vulnerability.
(Via Reuters) – The EU has dropped plans to cap the price it pays for Russian gas.
Energy ministers from the bloc met Friday (September 9) in Brussels. They scrapped plans for the cap after the idea failed to win broad support.
Member states in central and eastern Europe who still get gas from Russia feared retaliation by Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin had said he would cut off supplies altogether if a cap was imposed.
However, ministers did agree to claw back revenues from some power producers and will use the money to curb consumer bills. European energy prices are typically set by gas plants. That leaves generators using nuclear, wind or coal raking in revenue, as their running costs haven’t risen as much or at all.
On Friday, some EU nations also argued in favor of a general cap on all gas imports. However, European energy commissioner Kadri Simson said any such move would be risky:
“The general price cap, including LNG imports, could present a security of supply challenge, because the LNG market is a global market. We are not among the three biggest LNG-importing regions or countries, and there is very strong competition in the LNG market and right now it is very important that we can replace the decreasing Russian volumes with alternative suppliers.”
The EU windfall plan will now be fleshed out in the coming days, with another meeting of energy ministers seen possible later in the month. (read more)
President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen previously announced five initiatives to contain the expensive EU energy crisis: “The goal is clear. We must cut the revenues of Russia that Putin uses to finance this atrocious war against Ukraine. And now our work is paying off. At the start of the war, gas from Russian pipelines accounted for 40% of all imported gas. Today it has dropped to only 9% of our gas imports. These are tough times. But I am convinced that Europeans have the economic strength, the political will and the unity to maintain the upper hand,” she said. The United States and Norway are the primary suppliers of gas to the EU to fill the void.
Commissar von der Leyden’s five initiatives included:
(1) Conservation of electricity through forced and mandated cuts in electricity use. The amount of the cut has yet to be determined but reducing demand through forced curtailment of electricity use is the first approach. [Insert California as an example here in the United States.]
(2) A cap on the profit generated by energy suppliers who use renewable energy like wind and solar. The renewable industry has lower costs, yet they are profiting from the top line increase in delivered electricity. The EU commissar is proposing to confiscate the profits of Green Energy suppliers, direct the funds to the member states and then use those funds to subsidize the energy costs of poorer EU citizens.
(3) A cap on the profits generated by traditional fossil fuel energy suppliers (oil, coal, nuclear, gas electricity generation), and the diversion of those profits following the same formula as above.
(4) Banking support and financial liquidity for smaller regional energy providers who are having short term financial issues as they must pay massive amounts of money for the raw material needed to generate electricity. Essentially, the cost of coal, oil and LNG has skyrocketed, and there is a lag between the time they energy company must pay for the fuel source and the time the customer pays the electricity bill. The inbound fuel costs (new) are so extreme the inbound payments for prior electricity (old) are not covering the cost of the new supplier purchase.
(5) A price cap on Russian natural gas. To accompany the increased import of Norwegian and U.S. gas. This sounds like a bizarro effort to manipulate the market which could backfire. If Russian gas is cheaper than EU market gas, the smart energy providers will purchase the Russian gas.
Number five is now scrapped.
Not a single word about increasing the supply of any traditional energy resource. These EU ideologues -bureaucrats within a system that is not representative of democracy- are so committed to the cult of climate change and renewable energy, they are willing to destroy the EU economy in order to lower demand to the level of their windmills and solar farms. However, it looks like alternate, perhaps even sensible people within the EU, are starting to realize the ‘climate change’ ideologues are the real and present danger.
Yet another head of the financial system is coming out and warning that a recession is inevitable. Deutsche Bank CEO Christian Sewing echoed the words of BoE’s Governor Andrew Bailey and blamed the coming recession on the war in Ukraine. “We will no longer be able to avert a recession in Germany. Yet we believe that our economy is resilient enough to cope well with this recession — provided the central banks act quickly and decisively now,” Sewing said.
Going a step further, Sewing blamed China along with Russia. “When it comes to dependencies, we also have to face the awkward question of how to deal with China. Its increasing isolation and growing tensions, especially between China and the United States, pose a considerable risk for Germany,” he warned. Around 12% of German imports and 8% of exports come and go from China. Sewing would like to see a declining dependency on China rather than strengthening their relationship.
Neither China nor Russia are to blame for Germany’s situation. Russia was simply a diversion to draw attention away from the collapse of the European economy. Negative interest rates beginning in 2014 wiped out pension funds and proved that the central bank was not thinking long-term. COVID restrictions killed the supply chain, and Germany’s insistance in backing Ukraine eliminated what could have been a lucrative pipeline. Had the pipeline gone through, Europe would not have an energy crisis! Ever since COVID, we have witnessed a rising trend of civil unrest. Politicians have been working hard to create war with Russia deliberately, all cloaked in their real objective of controlling the planet.
When the energy crisis is unavoidable for the average person and the standard of living declines, the politicians will point to Russia and China. The decline began long before Russia lined the border of Ukraine, and China is demonized for simply existing. They would never blame their fiscal mismanagement or detrimental policies for the undoable damage they have created. If Germany falls, all of Europe will follow.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 8, 2022 | Sundance
Energy inflation continues to pummel all western nations as they chase the climate change agenda. Today, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates to support the goal of lowered economic activity. Lowering economic activity lowers energy use.
Absent of any desire to raise energy supply and/or energy production, monetary policy can support the goal of lowering energy use by driving down all economic activity.
In the big transition picture, the economies within the western alliance must be reduced until they match the energy output of windmills and solar farms.
FRANKFURT—The European Central Bank raised interest rates by the largest amount since the early days of Europe’s currency union, moving aggressively to combat record inflation even as an energy crisis puts Europe on the brink of recession.
The bank said in a statement that it would increase its key rate to 0.75% from zero—its second hike this year following a 50-basis-point rise in July—and signaled that further rises were likely over the coming months.
At a news conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that inflation was spreading beyond energy to a range of products. She said the ECB was ready to increase rates aggressively over the next several meetings.
“We want all economic actors to understand that the ECB is serious” about combating high inflation, Ms. Lagarde said. (read more)
A few months ago, amid all of the headline warnings about inflation and prices of essential products, CTH noted that if we were to continue waiting about six months, we would see a massive backlog of unsold goods and as a consequence the prices of non-essential durable goods would begin a rapid decline. That exact scenario is unfolding. Keep watching.
Keep in mind, this is not necessarily a collapse of total global economic activity; what we are seeing is a collapse of western nation economic activity that is impacting the rest of the world. A great economic fracturing is taking place as the western nations intentionally shrink their economy. The supplier nations are feeling the consequences.
All of this economic turmoil is running on an identical track -on a global basis- because the entire western plan was coordinated and followed. What we are seeing right now is the outcome of the “Build Back Better” roadmap. The “global inflation” is the outcome.
Joe Biden is blocking domestic energy production as he follows through with the agenda of the Green New Deal. In Europe, not coincidentally demanded by Biden, a similar outcome comes from the sanctions and blocking of Russian energy resources.
One could make a reasonable argument that the team behind Joe Biden specifically wanted the EU sanctions against Russia, because the U.S. crew wanted to keep both industrial economies mirroring each other as the U.S. energy system was dismantled. It would make sense to avoid a spotlight on the U.S. economic collapse, by forcibly pushing the EU economy into the same situation.
Taking that line of geopolitical and economic consequence one step further, and that would be part of the strategy -albeit undiscussed- behind having a consistent global cap on the price that any nation could pay for Russian oil. That approach is not about punishing Russia, it is to make all of the economic pain and problems equal amid all western nations. Globalists, and the central bankers, are good at creating economic systems to deliver equitable misery.
The Bank of England has admitted defeat, admitting they cannot prevent a recession. The pound fell to the lowest level against the USD on Wednesday afternoon after declining 0.64% to $1.145. When asked if the central bank could prevent the next recession, Governor Andrew Bailey was blunt in his answer. “Insofar as the war is having this huge effect, the answer to that would be no.”
I touched more on the decline and fall of Britain on the private blog last week. Socrates agrees with Bailey’s pessimistic stance. Inflation has surpassed 10% in the UK, and food and energy costs are expected to rise continually. The Bank of England now projects that the economy will shrink during Q4 2022, and the decline will continue until the end of 2023. Our models state that the decline will last longer than they expect.
If the new PM Truss is any indication of where policy is heading, Britain is in big trouble. Central banks do not like to admit defeat either. Look how Powell carefully changed his stance over the course of the year in terms of inflation. He did not want to create a panic by telling the public that they were screwed. The BoE has no other choice but to be brutally honest. The heads of central banks are now coming forward to offer their condolences for an issue they helped to create with artificially low rates. The BoE is still in better shape than the ECB, but that is not saying much.
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