Time the Last Frontier


Posted originally on Mar 30, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Iranian_Rial M Array 3 29 25
Israeli Shekel M Array 3 29 25

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong, I have followed Socrates for over a year now. I was told by friends you run the most unbiased site in the industry. I greatly appreciate how objective it really has been. What I am dumbfounded by is how, with the tension now with Iran and Trump’s ultimatum to Iran, even things like this take place when Socrates projects months in advance. I don’t want the code. You were willing to give your life to protect that. Can you give us a hint at how Socrates can see things nobody else does?

A most respectful convert

MM

ANSWER: I believe that pressure is building within the system, and it is that pressure that compels people to react. The computer forecasts that pressure, not some order that Trump may or may not sign. Trump is compelled to take action because of the pressure. The computer tells us when that pressure will reach a turning point that compels a response.

We have lost the knowledge that existed before the Dark Ages. There is a mysterious force that many do not wish to acknowledge even exists because they cannot see everything simultaneously and connect the dots. I am working hard to deliver two books, which I hope will be my legacy and what I leave behind. I have tried my damndest to defeat my own computer, and I have always failed. The sequel to the movie on me, The Forecaster, may be out by May. I was asked a tricky question, understanding that the forecasts are not my personal opinion. The question was:

How does it feel to live through your own forecasts?

MA War Cycle 2011 WEC

They have been filming me at every conference since 2011. So they have recorded all the forecasts, including me standing up in 2011 and forecasting that the War Cycle would begin in 2014.


Here is the first draft of the Prologue to the book on the business cycle and the Economic Confidence Model. I am working hard to complete it.

New ECM-2025-Prologue

Prime Minister Carney Declares Canada’s “Relationship with America is Over”


Posted originally on CTH onMarch 28, 2025 | Sundance

Canada Prime Minister Mark Carney delivers a speech to the nation notifying the Canadian people that the era of an economic and military collaborative relationship between the United States and Canada is over.

As the majority of Canadians cheer, the Prime Minister said that Canada as a free independent and sovereign nation will now embrace its connections to the United Kingdon and European Union and seek to replace their national dependency on the United States by severing ties in North America and entering a new era of close relations with Great Britain and Europe.

When questioned if Canada would join the European Union, a seemingly natural fit for the ideologically aligned country, Prime Minister Carney said, “nothing is off the table.”   In a rather remarkable end to the confrontation, the Carney says the economic and military ties between the USA and Canada are officially declared severed.  WATCH:

“We as Canadians, have agency”… What does that even mean?

.

President Trump asked Prime Minister Trudeau and the Canadian government to close the border to narcotraffickers and shutdown the pipeline of Chinese fentanyl.  The Canadian govt chose not to and Prime Minister Mark Carney continues the refusal.

The entire Canadian border enforcement system, agents, support personnel, the entire operation for 5,000-mile border consists of 300 people.  Not exactly a strong commitment to border security.

President Trump asked the Canadian government to remove trade tariffs, remove non-tariff trade barriers, and initiate reciprocal trade. The Canadian govt chose not to.

President Trump asked the Canadian govt to stop being a pass-through for Chinese goods that violates the USMCA. The Canadian govt chose not to.

President Trump asked the Canadian govt to open access to U.S. banks and financial services. The Canadian govt said no.

President Trump asked the Canadian govt to live up to the NATO commitment of 2.5% GDP spending on military defense. The Canadian govt said no, you will defend us free of charge and just accept it.

Now, members of the Canadian government are saying they want to “inflict the maximum amount of pain on Americans possible.”

Canada destroyed most of their heavy industry and chases the climate change hoax in all economic policies. Canada is destroying itself, no help from the UK or EU is needed.

Canada imported Steel and Aluminum from China, then shipped it into the USA, undercutting U.S. industry and trying to weaken U.S. heavy industry to match their own level of dependence.  Eventually, President Trump said ENOUGH!

Gates Focuses on Europe for Net Zero Aspirations


Posted originally on Mar 25, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Climate Change Warming

Few know that Bill Gates heavily lobbied for the Inflation Reduction Act, which former President Joe Biden later admitted was intended to combat climate change and not inflation. Gates met with key lawmakers like Senator Joe Manchin ahead of the 2022 legislation. Another tool utilized by Gates was Breakthrough Energy, a venture fund he established in 2015 to promote net zero policies. The group recently laid off most of their employees in Washington, D.C., as Gates shifts methods for “climate” advocacy.

“We need to go from 51 billion tons of emissions per year to zero,” Breakthrough Energy stated on its website. “The only way to avoid the worst impacts of climate change is to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions from 51 billion tons a year, where they are now, to net-zero—and we need to do it by 2050. That means we need unprecedented technological transformations in almost every sector of modern life.”

Gates has every intention of continuing to push for net zero by 2050. However, Gates admitted that he needed to shift his policy amidst the new political landscape where he cannot directly influence policy. And what better way to do that than to throw money at the private sector. The focus is now on creating clean energy technology rather than manipulating public policy. Gates admitted he had to shift course because Donald Trump was revitalizing the energy sector and lifting restrictions on fossil fuels.

Breakthrough Energy and Gates are now focusing on Europe, where leaders are still on board with the Paris Accord. Instead of acknowledging that Europe’s economy is failing due to these initiatives, Breakthrough claims that key companies like Volkswagen, ThyssenKrupp Steel, Northvolt, and ACC Gigafactories are failing because Europe is not adopting clean energy fast enough.

As the website states:

“Europe is at a crossroads. In his analysis published in September 2024, Mario Draghi highlighted an “existential risk” and forecast Europe’s “slow agony” if it doesn’t radically change course to reverse declining productivity, investment, and innovation. Recent announcements only seem to confirm this dire prediction: industries are reducing production across Europe (Volkswagen, thyssenkrupp Steel); announced investments are being cancelled or put on hold (Northvolt, ACC Gigafactories), and industrial output in Europe’s four largest economies is declining, with Germany, France, Italy and Spain having recorded a year-on-year drop in the production of capital goods and consumer durables.

There is no denying it: Europe is in crisis, one in which its established industrial base is eroding while new sectors fail to get off the ground. This is particularly concerning for cleantech where Europe’s ambitions are high, but the economic realities are sobering. As the recent bankruptcy of Northvolt reminds us, even with solid industrial policy in place, it is hard to scale up in Europe. Turning this situation around will be one of the overriding priorities of the new European Commission, which has recently unveiled the Competitiveness Compass and will soon produce the Clean Industrial Deal, two new (long overdue) economic and industrial policy programs. In a volatile security and fractured geopolitical environment, with looming threats of trade wars and deepening systemic competition, European policymakers have their work cut out for them.”

The European Commission welcomes Gates’ proposal and believes it can perpetually spend to achieve net zero by 2050. I explained in another blog post how scientists have stated that this goal is IMPOSSIBLE. Moreover, the World Economic Forum has pushed the EU to create the Clean Industrial Deal (CID) through a €100 billion spending package. It is no conspiracy to point out that globalist organizations are pushing Europe into economic ruin.

Installed Prime Minister Mark Carney Schedules Canadian SNAP Election for April 28th


Posted originally on CTH on March 24, 2025 | Sundance

Interim installed Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has confirmed the snap election for Canada is scheduled for April 28, 2025.

Given that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre generally sealed his fate with criticism of President Trump while aligning himself with a surging patriotic-leftist movement, it is now expected that Mark Carney will win the election.

Politico has an article about the dynamic underway, and the following quotes are noteworthy:

CANADA – […] Trump has even taken credit for turning the Liberals’ fortunes around.

“Before I got involved and totally changed the election — which I don’t care about, probably, it’s our advantage, actually — but the Conservative was leading against, I call him Governor Trudeau. The conservative was leading by 35 points,” he said Friday, while exaggerating the polls.

“I think Canada is a place, like a lot of other places, if you have a good candidate, the candidate is going to work,” Trump said.

[…] Canadians have responded to Trump’s intimidation tactics with an outburst of patriotism. They are canceling spring break plans, buying made-in-Canada products, damaging Teslas and booing “The Star Spangled Banner” at professional sporting events.

Carney’s campaign slogan is “Canada Strong” while Poilievre’s is “Canada First.”

[…] In a recent interview with Fox News, the president was asked about how his recent treatment toward Canada appears to be helping the Liberal party.

I don’t care,” he said. “I think it’s easier to deal, actually, with a liberal and maybe they’re going to win, but I don’t really care.

Trump went on to say Poilievre “is stupidly no friend of mine” because of the “negative things” he has said about the president.

Poilievre has tried to frame the comments as proof that Trump is endorsing Carney, while the Conservative leader attempts to revamp his strategy to meet the moment. (read more)

From the perspective of President Trump, the main asset in the arsenal of the Canadian tariffs is “energy.”  As a consequence, having a strong “climate change” prime minister up there will mitigate any use of the energy sector and help the strategic North American economic strategy of President Trump.

{GO DEEP}

Boycotts by Canadians are generally welcomed in the U.S. hospitality industry, not coincidentally an industry of great familiarity to President Trump.   Canada simply doesn’t have any tariff weapons in their arsenal for countervailing duties.

The latest strategy by the Canadian government is to rent billboards in various red states, trying to convince Americans they need Canada more than they need Donald Trump’s reciprocity tariffs.  It is a dubious proposition at best, and a little funny all things considered.  But hey, the feels. [Prompted]

Nature into 2032 – Here We Go


Posted originally on Mar 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Solar Flare 2

QUESTION: NASA believes that this next solar maximum will be less than the last. Do you agree with that, or should I ask Socrates to agree with that? My second question is the coming asteroid. They say it will hit the earth in 2032. Is that part of Socrates’ forecast?

Fred

2025_03_16_22_08_30_NASA_says_yes_an_asteroid_buzzing_by_in_2032_could_hit_Earth

ANSWER: Well, as for the asteroid hitting the Earth in 2032, they are playing it down really hard, like it has less than 3%. However, they are already looking at ways to try to destroy it because the odds are much higher than they are telling you. All I can say is that the 8.6-year cycle functions on a fractal basis, and it is extremely accurate. The precession of the equinox is nearly 25,800 years in duration, and that is 3 x 8.6. The fact that this is arriving in 2032 may simply be destiny and part of the universe’s timing.

Now, as to the next solar cycle, we show it should arrive here in 2025, but our computer disagrees with NASA, and it should be stronger than the last. This is the trend into 2032 for solar energy to intensify, meaning more significant flares and possible disruption to power grids, etc. This will be part of the trend into 2032 that will also impact the commodity markets.

Canadians Boycott US Travel


Posted originally on Mar 17, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

airplan air travel airtravel

Canadians are outraged at US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to annex Canada. Canadian consumers began boycotting American products and are now boycotting America in general as tourism sank by nearly a quarter this February. Statistics Canada reported a 23% decline in trips via car from the US this February, marking the second consecutive monthly decline, while trips to the US by air declined 2.4%.

Based on personal conversations with Canadian friends, I do not believe this decline is simply correlated with the falling Canadian dollar or unfavorable exchange rate. The US was the top travel destination for Canadian tourists, and many state and local economies depend on those tourism dollars. Canadian license tags nearly equate to US tags in the spring and summer months down here in Florida. Yet, Canadians are genuinely outraged by Trump’s comments on their nation becoming a US state and want to boycott the US and anything manufactured here. I have even heard of companies canceling conferences in the US due to tensions.

Hotel reservations near the Canadian border have seen notable decreases as well. Niagara Falls, New York, reported a 8.1% decline in Saturday night bookings and Bellingham, Washinton, recently saw a 10.8% dip. Canadian travel agency Flight Centre rang the alarm that booking to the US in February plummeted an alarming 40% YoY.

There were over 20.4 million visits to the US from Canada in 2024, aiding in $20.5 billion in spending. The US Travel Association believes a 10% decline in Canadian tourism could shed $2.1 billion from the US economy and cost up to 14,000 jobs. The association noted that if the current trend continues, the US economy will lose at least $4 billion in tourism. Tourism states like Florida, New York, Nevada, Texas, and California will experience the worst repercussions of this travel boycott.

Canada is a sovereign nation, and the people wish to keep it that way. We had an excellent relationship with our neighbors to the north despite political warfare. Now, it seems as if anti-American sentiments are growing across Canada since President Trump has been keen on potentially annexing it.

For our Canadian readers— as you know with Trudeau and now Carney, our leaders do not always speak on behalf of those they claim to represent. Americans have no desire to annex Canada. In fact, the majority on both sides of the political spectrum thought Trump was simply mocking Trudeau when he proposed making Canada a state. The majority of Americans respect Canada’s sovereignty and wish we could lay this topic to rest already.

Monetary History ofCanada


Posted originally by Martin Armstrong on March 12


Early 1600s: Beaver pelts are the one universally accepted medium of exchange, though wheat and moose skins are also legal tender

Mid 1600s: Wampum, or strings and belts made from shell beads, becomes legal tender in colonial New England. Eight white beads or four purple beads buy one penny.

Canada Playcard Money - 3

June 8, 1685: The first issue of card money occurs, which is printed on playing cards. The practice is criticized because it’s easy to counterfeit.

1722: Copper coins are introduced, though merchants didn’t like them; they continued to let people buy goods based on their own credit standing.

Eighteenth century: The lack of a standard currency and the differences in ratings given to the many coins in circulation in the colonies, “undoubtedly hindered trade and was a major source of economic inefficiency.”

Canada 1819 First Bank Note

1817: The Montreal Bank (subsequently the Bank of Montreal) issued the first bank notes in Canada after its establishment in 1817. Other banks soon followed suit. The notes were well received and became the main means of payment in British North America.

Canada 1911 $500

1854 – 1914: The Dominion of Canada is under the gold standard. The value of the Canadian dollar was fixed in terms of gold and valued at par with the U.S. currency. Both U.S. and British gold coins are legal tender in Canada.

July 11, 1864: The greenback sinks to less than 36 cents (Canadian), an all-time peak for the Canadian dollar, from close to parity in early 1862. It subsequently recovers through the decade and the currencies trade around par until the outbreak of the First World War.

Canada 1954 $1000

Mid-1950: Canadian dollar depreciates. The federal government cancels fixed parity, putting it at odds with the International Monetary Fund, and the Canadian currency appreciates.

Aug. 20, 1957: The Canadian dollar hits a peak of $1.06 (U.S.).

May 2, 1962: The government establishes a new par for the Canadian dollar, fixing it at 92.50 cents (U.S.) with a fluctuation band of 1 per cent.

May 31, 1970: The government floats the Canadian dollar amid a growing budget surplus and rising inflation.

April 25, 1974: The dollar hits a high of $1.04 (U.S.) against the greenback as global demand boosts the price of raw materials. The strength sparked fear about Canada’s export industries at a time when the unemployment rate was already high.

Nov. 15, 1976: The Parti Québécois is elected, causing markets to “make a major reassessment of the Canadian dollar’s prospects.” At the same time, commodity prices start to soften, inflation picks up. By 1979, the currency slides to 84 cents (U.S.).

August, 1981: The Bank of Canada’s key rate hits 21.2 per cent. By 1982, the dollar traded below 77 cents (U.S.).

Feb. 4, 1986: The Canadian dollar hits a record low of 69.13 cents (U.S.) as falling commodity prices hurt the economy.

1988-1989: The currency rebounds somewhat to close the decade at 86 cents (U.S.).

1990s: The currency weakens again, closing the decade at 69.29 cents (U.S.). Inflation and interest rates fall and commodity prices soften.

1998: The international crisis in emerging markets such as Russia and Latin America causes the dollar to slide as low as 63.11 cents (U.S.).

2002: The currency hits a record low of 61.98 cents (U.S.) on Jan. 18, 2002.

2006: The loonie tops 90 cents (U.S.), prompting calls for parity. It then weakens for much of the balance of the year.

2007: The loonie takes flight again. On May 31, it topped 94 cents (U.S.) – the highest level in 30 years. Later that year it hit parity in September. That fall the loonie hit its modern-day intra-day high of $1.10 (U.S.), and hit its highest closing price of $1.08 (U.S.) on Nov. 6, 2007.

2008: The loonie continued to trade near parity until it dipped below that level on July 21, 2008.

2009: The Canadian dollar closed at a recent low of 76 cents U.S. on March 9, 2009, before restarting a rapid ascent higher against a basket of international currencies.

2010: The loonie touches parity for the first time in 20 months on April 6, 2010.

3.9.25: Strategic Crypto Reserve, COMEX Silver contract, plus extra info on P!ZS0G@TE, PRAY!


Posted originally on Rumble By And We Know on: March 9, 2025 at 2:00 am EST

Dems Want Taxes on Tips and Overtime


Posted originally on Mar 5, 2025 by Martin Armstrong 

Tax Robbery

The party of war voted in unison against ending taxes on tips and overtime work. Only one Republican voted against these measures, with 217 in favor. The Democrats are NOT the party of the working class and have been actively working to undermine the people for years.

Ending taxes on tips and overtime was one of Trump’s campaign promises, which is precisely why the Democrats struck down the bill. Laughably, the opponents stated they were concerned that losing $2 trillion in tax breaks over the next decade would hurt the national debt. The very people who have never seen a social program they did not want to fund are suddenly concerned about the national debt.

Franklin Taxes

Kamala Harris was in favor of these policies and had the backing of her party. Her feigned support was an effort to win over the people, no different from the failed promise of ending student loans. “It is my promise to everyone here, when I am president, we will continue to fight for working families, including to raise the minimum wage and eliminate taxes on tips for service and hospitality workers,” Harris told a crowd at the University of Nevada in August 2024.

The Democrats want everyone to be equally poor and dependent upon the government. Some lawmakers say eliminating tip taxes would be unfair to workers in states with a lower minimum wage. Under that line of thinking, should we penalize those who work in cities where, say, a meal is 5X the price as it would be elsewhere? Why should anyone out earn another in this fantasy socialist utopia? Minimum wage is a short-sighted political move that ignores the fundamental laws of supply and demand. Politicians always assume they can simply legislate prosperity, but history proves otherwise. Forcing businesses to pay higher wages does not magically create wealth—it destroys jobs, accelerates automation, and puts small businesses out of business.

Wages rise naturally in a real economic expansion when businesses compete for workers. That is how a free market functions. But when governments artificially raise wages, businesses respond logically—by cutting jobs, reducing hours, or passing the costs onto consumers through inflation. The very people politicians claim to be helping end up worse off, as their cost of living rises and entry-level jobs disappear.

Tipping culture is completely out of control in America. There is an expectation for consumers to pay a minimum of 20% in addition to inflated services, regardless of the quality of their service. Kiosks and self-checkout payment systems often ask for a tip. Consumers are less likely to go out when money is tight and the initial service has already risen due to inflation. Then, the government wants to take a portion of these tips AND the initial salary in most states. Whatever we must buy is then taxed; whatever we save is then taxed. Government greed knows no bounds. They’re too incompetent to manage funds, so they continue to squeeze our pockets, but it is never enough.

Taxing overtime pay is just another example of how clueless politicians are when it comes to economics. The entire purpose of overtime is to compensate workers for putting in extra hours beyond a normal workweek. Yet, instead of rewarding hard work, governments see it as another opportunity to grab more revenue. Why would the government disincentivize people from working? We are eager to keep our hospitals staffed, ports flowing, trucks moving, etc. but are discouraging a productive workforce by dipping into their earnings.

Do the Dems who voted against these policies hate the American people, Trump, or both? No one is buying their feigned concern for the national debt. If policymakers had any real understanding of economics, they would eliminate taxes on overtime and tips entirely. If you want a strong economy, you incentivize productivity, not penalize it.

Chrystia Freeland Canada Needs to Arm Nuclear Against the USA


Posted originally on Mar 2, 2025 by Martin Armstrong

Chrystia Freeland, Klaus Schwab’s stooge, has gone rogue and is pitching to become the next prime minister of Canada. She claims that the world is looking to Canada to be the new leader of the Free World. She is advocating joining with NATO against the United States, with Britain and France adding as nuclear powers, all to protect this leftist agenda because they know they are losing support globally. She said:

“The US is turning predator, and so what Canada needs to do is work closely with our democratic allies, our military allies. I would start with our Nordic partners, specifically Denmark who is also being threatened, and our NATO European allies. I would be sure that France and Britian were there who possess NUCLEAR WEAPONS and I will be working urgently with these partners to build a closer security relationship that guarantees our security in a time when United States can be a threat.”

We live in Interesting Times