Boris Johnson Wins Party Vote Becomes Newest British Prime Minister…


Boris Johnson has succeeded in beating his nearest rival Jeremy Hunt for leadership of the conservative party in the U.K. thereby becoming the next Prime Minister. One of the priority challenges for Prime Minister Johnson will be navigating a successful Brexit.

A full three years after the British electorate voted to leave the European Union, the elites in Britain have continued to stymie the referendum in their effort to remain attached to the communal values of the collective society.  Thus gave rapid rise, recently, to the Brexit Party as a national force led by Nigel Farage.  It’s the UK version of ‘deplorables’ vs ‘elites’.

The British Parliament is filled with elected members who stand in opposition to the majority of the British citizenry.  It is amid this professionally political and elitist disconnect that Boris Johnson must now attempt to deliver Brexit, while the purchased politicians of both institutional parties will oppose his effort. [Sound familiar?]

London (AFP) – Boris Johnson won the race to become Britain’s next prime minister on Tuesday, heading straight into a confrontation over Brexit with Brussels and parliament, as well as a tense diplomatic stand-off with Iran.

The former London mayor easily beat his rival, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, in a vote of grassroots members of the governing Conservative Party.

He is expected to be confirmed as prime minister on Wednesday when Theresa May formally tenders her resignation to Queen Elizabeth II.

US President Donald Trump was the first world leader to offer his congratulations, saying: “He will be great!”

It is a triumph for a man who has always coveted the premiership. But Johnson, known for his jokes and bluster, is taking over at a time of immense political upheaval.

Three years after the referendum vote to leave the European Union, Britain remains a member amid continued wrangling in a divided parliament on how to proceed.

– ‘We’ll get Brexit done’ –

Johnson led the referendum “Leave” campaign and — after May delayed Brexit twice — insists the latest deadline must be met, with or without a divorce agreement with the EU.

“We’re going to get Brexit done on October 31,” he declared in a speech to party members in London, after winning 66 percent of almost 140,000 votes cast.  (read more)

Here is Johnson’s victory speech. [Prompted, just hit play]

Why Hedge Funds Have Missed the Moves


COMMENT: Well, Ray Dalio was short the market, missed the rally, and lost almost 5% for the first half of the year. Obviously, they don’t use Socrates – lol.

LB

REPLY: I do not advise Bridgewater and I have no idea if they even subscribe to Socrates. But what you have to realize is that a lot of these hedge funds form their strategy based upon opinion for the broader view. When you have a portfolio of that size, you cannot simply trade it back and forth for each move. The question becomes critical as to where to draw the line to realize your broadview strategy is wrong.

I have stated many times that the trend does NOT begin to shift until you reach the Monthly Level. We saw that in Gold when it finally got through 1362.50 after nearly four years of bouncing off that number. In the case of the Dow Jones Industrials, our hedging models for institutions were long one month from the low and has remained in that position. This is just a hedging model which is either long or short. It at least tends to keep institutions on the right side of the trend for long periods of time.

Aside from the Reversal System, the Energy Model is extremely helpful in identifying the position of the market and if there is a risk of a crash or a rally. The Energy Model turned negative, demonstrating that there was no possibility of a crash as most analysts were forecasting from a gut perspective. A crash would have been possible ONLY if the Energy Model was at a peak. When it is testing the lows or a negative, it is warning that the energy in the market has already dissipated.

We are simply headed into a Monetary Crisis Cycle where the majority of people will never be able to forecast what will unfold from a personal gut perspective. This is not a time for lucky calls. We need objective time-tested analysis that is not clouded by human bias. This is when we need the global approach to let Socrates simply correlate the world to enable us to see the real trends that are in motion. The worst thing you can do is ASSUME you have missed something, as that is typically the kiss of death for investors where they inevitably buy the high or sell the low.

Italy Seizes Missile from Far Right Activists


The tensions in Europe continue to rise as the entire refugee issue has led to a major polarization within Europe. In Italy, the BBC reported that an anti-terrorism police unit in northern Italy seized an air-to-air missile and other sophisticated weapons during raids on far-right extremist groups who were combat ready. The missiles belong to Neo-Nazi propaganda groups and they originated from the Qatari armed forces. The civil unrest that our computer has been forecasting on a global scale is here to stay and is heating up as we head into 2024.

Nigel Farage’s BREXIT Party is Now #2


Nigel Farage’s new Brexit Party is now the second largest in Britain. The Conservatives still topped the YouGov poll with 24% of the vote, but they were boosted by the prospect of Boris Johnson, who is a Brexit believer, as the next Tory leader. The prospects for Europe remain up in the air as Brussels still refuses to reform and is looking to punish Switzerland as an example for Britain. But trying to exclude the London markets as a place Europeans can invest will cause a major economic decline for Europe rather than London.

Agricultural Loans Declining Right on Target


One of the most fascinating observations I have made over my career has been that the banks always lend at the top and contract lending at the bottom in every market. Going into 1980, banks were calling me to ask if I wanted to borrow money. Recently, I got a phone call from my bank asking, once again, if I would be interested in a loan. This to me is merely a confirmation that we are approaching a major turning point.

When I look at lending into the agricultural sector, the big Wall Street banks are once again perfectly in line with the cycle. They peaked in loans to farmers back in 2015, and have been declining ever since going into 2020. Bank lending to the agricultural sector peaked with the ECM and we will see it bottom in 2020. Our model will be correct in forecasting the next wave, which will be a cost-push inflationary wave. As the agricultural sectors come back to life, thanks to shortages, then the bankers will be willing to lend once again. The banks are the PERFECT indicator of how not to run a business. They make decisions emotionally and always get the economy dead wrong (i.e mortgage-backed securities peaked in 2007)