Tag Archives: End of Free Speech

Jul 20 2022

Here it Comes, Joe Biden Set to Declare “National Climate Emergency” as Soon as Tomorrow


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 19, 2022 | sundance 

CTH cannot overestimate what is more likely than not, as the Biden administration is now reportedly going to declare a national climate emergency in order to take their Green New Deal policy to the next level via executive fiat.  [The Hill Story Here]

Any possibility of the Biden administration creating an even deeper economic collapse under the auspices of climate change regulation, has essentially been stalled by congressional opposition to further Green New Deal (Build Back Better) spending and regulatory legislation.

Some, albeit not enough, congressional representatives, can see what lies at the end of this fundamental energy change, a significant collapse of the United States economy.  However, the committed ideologues behind Joe Biden are not going to let the legislative branch interfere in their climate change agenda.

What we are about to see is most reasonably predictable against the backdrop of how Biden’s administration exploited the “national COVID emergency,” that backstopped and justified their eventual use of OSHA to mandate vaccinations, and regulatory control over the private sector, under the guise of a pandemic emergency.  We predicted that administration approach in December of 2020, and that is exactly what they did {GO DEEP}.

When CTH shared that OSHA would be the institutional regulatory vector for forced vaccinations, many said we were conspiracy theorists.  Ten months later that is exactly what the people behind Joe Biden did (link). Now we can expect that same health emergency approach (massive regulations) to repeat with the declaration of a national climate emergency.

Pause and think about the ramifications to all domestic economic and business interests if the federal government starts using all agencies to regulate a new climate emergency policy.  Think about the regulations, the scale of potential regulations, from the dept of transportation, the dept of labor (including OSHA), the dept of the interior, the dept of energy, the dept of housing and urban development, the dept of education, the dept of health and human services, and many more.

Joe Biden is an avatar; a political pawn; a cognitively declining guy who has no idea what is happening around him.

The people behind the Biden campaign, those in real control of what this is about, have not hidden their goals and aspirations.

These are not stupid people.

They are scheming, conniving, ideological, ever-planning, ever-manipulating & Machiavellian types within the political system, lusting for power, influence and affluence.

WASHINGTON DC – The Biden administration is considering the declaration of a climate change emergency in response to congressional inaction on the issue.

It’s unclear when and if such an announcement will come, though the White House had been considering a move as early as Wednesday.

Two sources familiar with the discussion on Tuesday morning told The Hill that the announcement could come Wednesday — the same day that Biden is expected to discuss climate during a trip to Massachusetts.

A third source also told The Hill that a climate emergency was under White House consideration.

By Tuesday afternoon, one of The Hill’s sources said that while the White House had planned to declare the emergency as soon as Wednesday, it has since advised that it will not do so on that day.

The Associated Press separately reported Tuesday afternoon that the White House would hold off from a declaration on Wednesday.

The Washington Post first reported late Monday that the White House was considering declaring the emergency as soon as this week. The White House announced Tuesday that Biden will travel on Wednesday to Somerset, Mass., to deliver remarks on tackling climate change.

A White House official declined to directly comment on whether Biden will pursue a climate emergency declaration, saying only that many options are under consideration.

“The President made clear that if the Senate doesn’t act to tackle the climate crisis and strengthen our domestic clean energy industry, he will. We are considering all options and no decision has been made,” the official said in an email.

The move comes as hopes for climate action on Capitol Hill have stalled, as swing vote Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) backed away from talks last week following months of negotiations. The potential climate legislation, as part of Biden’s broader economic agenda, was expected to include major investments in clean energy. (read more)

Think about those types of business and energy regulations applied on a national level, and then, as seen in prior Democrat administrations with IRS etc, think about those energy regulations also being enforced through the prism of political affiliation.

Think about how states that refuse to participate will be cut off from federal grants and funding for college tuition, Medicare and/or Medicaid reimbursement, etc. etc.

Think about what happens to Main Street USA?

Think about companies on the NASDAQ or national companies on the stock-market?

Think about how those USA-specific federal energy compliance regulations apply when considering U.S. business operations -vs- just taking operations overseas without those worries.

Think about who in Washington DC then takes control of what types of business interests are allowed to operation…. who determines the winning and losing?

Think about how Federal emergency climate regulations can be used to put the multinational corporate world back (the globalists) on their former financial pathways, even without TPP and TTIP trade deals.  [Every domestic regulation weaponized against Main Street USA is a win for the Wall Street multinationals.]

Think about how much China and southeast Asia would benefit love to see our economy knee-capped in a Biden regulatory stranglehold; essentially achieving the same objectives as the Paris Climate Treaty.

Think long and hard about how far the tentacles of achieving the Green New Deal can extend under the auspices of federal emergency climate mitigation.

Remember, those who are working on this don’t care about the middle-class and they have not for decades. The visibility of the ‘rust belt’ is the reference. This is about government bureaucrats using their DC powerbase to control trillions in economic value and sell their ability to influence the winners and losers to the highest foreign bidder.

Look at what blue states have already done to seize power and control under the auspices of a national health emergency. Now think about that same manipulative intent spread throughout the entire country by weaponizing federal agencies with advanced regulation toward a national climate emergency.  The entire country turned into a California style-controlled energy economy.

Now, think carefully about how that approach aligns with a political change in personnel at the White House.  Joe Biden’s usefulness now exhausted.

Jul 19 2022

Coming Soon: Climate Change v Animal Activists


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Jul 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Two groups that usually overlap are about to come into direct confrontation due to the net-zero carbon culture. Both climate and animal rights activists have been known to make their voices heard through protests that are not always peaceful. Farmers are being unfairly targeted by climate change activists for having cattle that produce emissions, and governments are ramping up legislation to limit farming.

Farmers in Norway have been protesting for months as the government plans to eliminate around 30% of agriculture to reduce carbon emissions. Now, Northern Ireland is considering eliminating over one million cattle and sheep to meet emission targets by 2050. The Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) estimates that 500,000 cattle and 700,000 sheep will need to die. In a separate analysis, five million chickens will need to be slaughtered before 2035.

While animal activists to the extreme would like to end farming and create a meatless world, they are not going to be happy when they realize those piloting the climate change agenda plan to kill these animals rather than allowing them to live out their days on taxpayer-funded farms.

Activism aside, we are in the midst of a food crisis. Those in first-world nations have seen the cost of food rise drastically throughout the past year. Perhaps some of your groceries of choice are no longer available or are often out of stock. However, people are starving to death in less developed parts of the world at a rapid rate and there is not enough food or funding to save everyone. In fact, the World Bank estimated that world hunger reached a high in 2021 when 193 million became food insecure, a number that rose by 40 million from 2020. Our model indicates that this cycle will continue to grow.

In the meantime, those championing saving the world with various causes will come into direct confrontation with one another. The left will increasingly divide into left v Socialists and dampen plans for the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

Jul 19 2022

Biden Begs Saudi Arabia for Oil


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 19, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia did not go as planned. Saudi Arabia will temporarily increase oil production in July and August in exchange for a slew of removed restrictions. Civilian aircrafts from Israel will be permitted to fly over Saudi Arabia. Peacekeepers will be removed from Tiran Island, where US soldiers have been stationed since the late 1970s. Five Americans were killed in a helicopter crash over this region in 2020, but intel swears it had nothing to do with terrorism. Tiran Island will now be redeveloped into a tourist destination, although I am unsure how eager the general public will be to visit.

Per usual, Biden pledged to give a foreign nation tons of money to develop their infrastructure while leaving America in the dust. This will be done through support for the US Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), which was announced at the last G7 summit. The US will also help Saudi Arabia deploy 5G technology and expand internet access.

Humorously, Biden welcomed the Partnership Framework for Advancing Clean Energy to help Saudi Arabia “transition and combat the effects of climate change.” Oil is the Saudi’s bread and butter, and building green energy infrastructure is likely not a promise that will be kept.

Both the left and right are angry with the president for grappling at the feet of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Bernie Sanders slammed Biden for visiting Saudi Arabia. “If this country believes in anything, we believe in human rights, we believe in democracy, and I just don’t believe that we should be maintaining a warm relationship with a dictatorship like that,” Sanders said. Biden maintained that he spoke to the crown prince about the death of Khashoggi at the top of the meeting, but the crown prince maintained innocence and said to tread lightly when interfering in alleged human rights abuses.

Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, Minister of Foreign Affairs of Saudi Arabia, explained it well. “The Crown Prince pointed out to President Biden that we the kingdom, the respect for human rights is a core value for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on our Islamic beliefs and our Arab heritage. And that it’s absolutely important that values be spread through dialogue. Trying to impose your values on others is not going to be effective. It will get you a negative reaction. … The right way to try and put your values forward is to show the world that you adhere first of all to those values, that you are respecting your own values.”

Basically, Saudi Arabia is going to continue operating as it sees fit and has the leverage to negotiate lucrative deals since the US is unwilling to drill. “In the end you cannot impose your values by force. … The Crown Prince was quite clear with President Biden, and we have our own values and those are not going to align 100% with US values ever because we are very, very proud of our own traditions, our own values, our own faith,” bin Farhan said.

Jul 19 2022

Russia to Cut off Germany from Gas Thanks to Zelensky


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is very interesting how Volodymyr Zelensky is doing whatever he can, not merely to destroy all of Europe, but to push the world into World War III because of his and Ukraine’s inherent hatred of Russians. He has told Justin Trudeau that Ukrainians would never accept Canada’s decision to return a gas turbine intended for a Russian pipeline because it would encourage more sanctions violations. Meanwhile, Gazprom has come out and stated that it could no longer guarantee its “good functioning” pipeline to Germany due to crucial turbines that are being held up in Canada because of sanctions.

Gazprom has declared extraordinary circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to Germany, whereby the gas flow to Europe will stop flowing indefinitely. Reuters reported a letter dated July 14, 2022. Zelensky thinks cutting gas supplies to Germany will force NATO to invade Russia. Kyiv will be the first to go before Zelensky can make it to his private jet to run off to enjoy the hundreds of millions he is stashing offshore.

Perhaps Germany should now invade Ukraine. It seems to be the only way to save Europe.

Our computer has been targeting here late July and August and high volatility and August as a Panic Cycle in some markets. But just about everything is going nuts into 2023. A quarterly closing above $6.25 in natural gas, which it has NOT been able to achieve this far, will confirm this is going to get much worse. Therefore, a September closing ABOVE $6.25 will be a serious warning for 2023. We had a rare Double Directional Change this quarter, so it looks like we have the most brain-dead crop of world leaders ever in human history and Zelensky, who I warned was the man who would create World War III.

Even NYC lost over 5,000 small businesses thanks to COVID. There isn’t a single decision these people are capable of making. It has reached the point that people who I know personally, who would be qualified to lead, are simply not interested due to the WOKE culture. We are simply headed into a politically created nightmare.

We see sharply higher volatility in August and the SIGNIFICANT risk of war coming in the first quarter of 2023. This is NOT something that is my personal opinion. The only thing that can actually target periods well in advance is an unbiased computer. It was Socrates that targeted 2008 as a Panic Cycle published back in 1999, which can be verified on the Wayback Machine. That was not only the Great Crash that set in motion negative interest rates theories, but it was the historical high in the euro.

Jul 18 2022

Estonia Forms New Government


Armstrong Economics Blog/European Union Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Yet another shake-up among Schwab’s leaders. Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stepped down from her role on a technicality before being reappointed a day later. Kallas’ Reform Party reached an agreement with the Social Democrats and Isamaa Party to form a new three-party coalition.

Estonia shares a 180-mile border with Russia and has strongly supported Ukraine before the war began. Estonia is a small nation with a population of around 31 million and a GDP of $36.29 billion USD. Their inflation rate is among the highest in Europe after spiking to 22% in June.

Estonia has a large Russian population but has the comfort of being a NATO nation. The new government is aiming to eliminate their Russian ties by banning Russian from being spoken in school. Russians and Belarusians now have a more difficult time immigrating to Estonia or even traveling there without a visa.

Estonia is cracking down on potential spies or intelligence agencies at the border. The poster above has appeared around the border, with the government encouraging people to turn in anyone who they suspect is involved with Russian intelligence agencies. Kallas also has the epigenetic fear of her neighbor as her mother, grandmother, and great-grandmother were once deported to Siberia. The small nation will use its strategic position to help the West’s proxy war, and Kallas herself said that negotiating a peace deal with Putin is off the table.

“For us, it is important to not make that mistake again like we did in Crimea, Donbas, Georgia,” she said. “We have done the same mistake already three times saying that, you know, negotiations, negotiated peace is the goal. … The only thing that Putin hears from this is that ‘I can do this because no punishment will follow.’”

Jul 18 2022

Australia’s Rental Crisis


Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Renters across the globe are in a bad spot as housing has become unaffordable. The situation is particularly bad in Australia where rentals have reached a high not seen since 2009. As of March, the average rental was A$600 per week, surpassing the mid-2018 high of A$550. The is not enough supply to meet demand.

Housing availability dropped by nearly 50% from December 2021 to March 2022. The situation worsened once borders reopened as visa holders and tourists re-entered the nation. The vacancy rate, according to the CBD, has declined to 1.5% after peaking at 5.7% during the pandemic.

Some estimate that the “economic time bomb” of under-investment in affordable housing will cost taxpayers A$25 billion per year by 2051. Housing All Australians founder Rob Pradolin believes this figure is closer to A$110 billion, and believes a $55 billion investment could deliver a 2:1 cost-benefit ratio. At least 2 million Australian low-income households will be under “housing stress” by 2051. That is an optimistic forecast.

Similar to America, the UK, and many other nations, shelter inflation has caused housing costs to become one of the biggest budget expenses.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison has been accused of being out of touch by suggesting Australians simply buy a house. That is simply not possible for many, especially after the government-imposed lockdowns and shuttered countless businesses during COVID. Morrison has suggested allowing people to access their super (similar to pensions) early in order to purchase a home. Superannuation Minister Jane Hume said that this would result in rising home prices. Labor leader Anthony Albanese also criticized the plan by calling it a desperate “attack on future savings” and future generations. “If you take super away from people, then you’ll have higher deficits and bills from the government in the future,” he told reporters.

Oddly enough, Mr. Morrison vacated his own home, branded “Squat Morrison,” after losing the election to Albanese and taking his time leaving the property.

Unfortunately, Albanese has a worse plan in mind. Low-income residents will have the opportunity to buy a home, with the help of Big Brother government. The government will pay between 30% to 40% of total housing costs for 10,000 buyers annually. Instead of paying back the banks, the people must pay the government back if they can afford to do so.

You will own nothing and be happy.

Jul 18 2022

Inflation – Real Estate – Chaos


Armstrong Economics Blog/Gold RePosted Jul 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I thought you were just a Trumper warning what would happen if Biden won. I have come back to your site because I can see inflation approaching 10% as you said and the dollar is rising which made no sense as gold stalled. I think you also said that real estate will decline perhaps into 2023. Has there ever been such a wild combination of events?

Thanks

Pete

ANSWER: It gives me no pleasure to deliver such forecasts. They are NEVER my personal opinion. In all honesty, it truly takes a computer to sort out all the global trends. Personal opinions will not cut it when you enter a period that has not unfolded in a very long time.

I have told the story before that back in 1985 when we were going to open our first office in Europe, I went to lunch with one of the heads of a Swiss bank when I was there. I had a list of names we came up with like European Advisers or something like that because I knew there was a lot of anti-Americanism in Europe. He asked me to name one European analyst. I could not. I was embarrassed but he said there were none.

He then explained that everyone was using our firm on currency because “You do not give a shit if the dollar goes up or down.” He elaborated that in Europe if any analyst ever said their currency would decline it would have been seen as treason since the politicians had used currency to prove they did a good job rebuilding Europe after the war.

I learned many years ago, that the only way to operate was to call the shots as they unfold. My personal opinion means nothing. I cannot make a market rise when its trend is down. I am here to simply deliver what the computer projects. No matter how loud I could scream, it does not matter. What will be – will be.

Real Estate is undergoing three separate trends. First, there has been mass evacuation from cities and high-taxed states thanks also to draconian COVID laws. Secondly, we have the flight of capital to flee banks, etc which is part of just getting capital off the grid. Then thirdly, there has been a flight of international capital fleeing to the United States because of geopolitical instability in Europe.

The standard claim is that real estate will drop by 50% all because of interest rates pointing to some cities declining by 4% in June alone. This is merely confusing the people for they are looking at only the big cities that are already in decline for a separate reason from interest rates.

The claim that interest rate hikes imply that real estate will decline is very old school and once more it presumes everyone is buying on leverage. In 2021, cash sales represented 25% of existing home sales in the key markets that were a level unmatched since 2016. Nationally, buyers paid cash for almost 15% of the homes in 2021 in markets that were booming from migration from other states.

Florida, the Tampa market was even hotter. Single-family homes saw 45.5% more buyers paid cash than in 2020. The number of condo buyers paying cash went up 33.2%. While more people paid cash, the inventory dropped, with 29.2% fewer active listings of single-family homes in the 2021 third quarter than in 2020. Condo listings dropped even more, at 52.2% fewer available. Speaking to a local realtor, houses in excess of $1 million in the Tampa area were 95% cash deals.

This market has been LESS impacted by interest rate hikes than any previous booming market all because of the migration from interstate within the US and the flood of European buyers looking for assets outside of Europe as war keeps getting closer and closer. I have warned that real estate will decline in those states where people are fleeing. It has boomed in places they have been migrating to such as Texas and Florida. Obviously, you can no longer make a blanket forecast in real estate. Then there has been Blackrock which has bought over 20,000 homes in Florida in the lower-end of the market for cash.

I have warned many times that the standard nonsense that gold rises with inflation has been a sales pitch as trustworthy as a used car salesman. Gold rises during the collapse in the confidence of the government. Everyone will respond based on their own currency.  As the dollar rises, gold has declined in US$, but the pattern will be different for every other currency.

Jul 18 2022

Ukraine Cargo Plane Crashed in Greece Carrying 11 Tons of Bombs, Mortars and Landmines to Bangladesh


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance

If I had to hazard a guess about what this was, I’d say it is most likely: (a) part of the massive Ukrainian stores of mortars and landmines in eastern Ukraine that were moved in order to keep the Russians from capturing them; or (b) the actual arms that were captured by Russian and then sold on the world arms market.   Either way, somehow, they end up as part of an arms deal from Serbia to Bangladesh.

With the new and improved western weapons provided by the United States, Ukraine is likely upgrading and selling their old weapons to various nefarious arms dealers.

This shipment happened to crash, and that’s the only reason we are hearing about it.

(Via Daily Mail) –  Soldiers in hazmat suits searched for signs of nuclear and chemical substances at the crash site of a Ukrainian cargo plane transporting nearly a dozen tons of mortar shells and land mines.

The Antonov An-12 light aircraft, which was transporting the weapons from Serbia to Bangladesh, had eight Ukrainian crew members onboard. They were all killed. 

An official at Kyiv cargo operator Meridian told Reuters: ‘Of course they didn’t survive this.’  Eyewitnesses filmed the fireball crash in the early hours today, with explosions continuing for two hours and the charred wreckage burning until morning.

Drone images from the scene showed debris from the bulking aircraft strewn in fields.  Serbia’s defense minister said the plane was carrying 11.5 tonnes of products made by its defense industry and the buyer was Bangladesh defense ministry.   Greek authorities could not provide any more information on the aircraft’s cargo. (more)

Previously Russia was reporting to have captured a massive Ukranian military weapons cache near Kharkov (northeastern Ukraine).  I wrote about it HERE.  However, the video (partial screengrab below) was quickly removed by the internet police.

The doomed weapons shipment supposedly originated from Serbia, so the original source could be either Ukraine or Russia.  Who knows?  Amid all of the propaganda, Ukraine corruption and furious U.S. arms shipments into Ukraine, there are multiple sketchy participants likely involved in selling the arms on the global black market.

FUBAR

Jul 18 2022

Former Obama Economic Advisor Says Best Way to Deal with Inflation is to Raise Taxes and Plunge Main Street into a Recession


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance 

Jason Furman is the former Chairman of the National Economic Council under Barack Obama; he is currently a professor at Harvard teaching economics.   If you ever wondered why the economy under Obama included the weakest economic recovery in history, the advice of Furman might explain it.

In an interview with CBS this morning, Jason Furman says the best way to get inflation under control is to raise taxes and stop people from spending money.  This approach will impact the demand side of the economy and as a result, with no one purchasing stuff, it will lower prices.   Seriously, no joke, he said this. WATCH:

Jason Furm: …”Congress should be trying to do their part and helping out if they can cut the deficit, including raising taxes on high income households, that would reduce a bit of spending in the economy, it would cool the economy down a little bit, and actually take some pressure off the Fed.”…

Create a deeper recession to control inflation, brilliant!

Like I have been pointing out for months, these ideologues believe inflation is being driven by the demand side, by consumers purchasing too much.  They pretend not to know it is the supply-side issue of energy policy that is driving the CORE inflation they seek to reduce.

.

Harvard Economics Professor Jason Furman reminds me of this:

Jul 18 2022

Sunday Talks, Biden Energy Security Coordinator Amos Hochstein Spins Saudi Trip and Need for Windmills


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 17, 2022 | Sundance

CBS pretentious pretender Margaret Brennan interviews Joe Biden’s Energy Security Coordinator Amos Hochstein about the trip to the Gulf Arab States and subsequent energy policy developments.  [CBS Transcript Here] Hochstein spins the non-existing benefits of the trip by attributing the pre-existing Saudi cease-fire in Yemen as an outcome of Biden talking to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Quite a stretch.

Hochstein still thinks there is going to be a way for ‘western governments‘ to place price caps on Russian oil exports by getting the entire planet to agree only to pay Russia a set price for oil.  With Russia an OPEC+ member, and the members of OPEC not in ideological alignment with the Biden administration on a host of geopolitical issues, good luck with that.  The producers (OPEC) have control over what prices the consumers (Non OPEC) pay; they are not going to give up that mechanism just to please the Biden administration.

On the domestic front, while there is little possibility of a global oil production increase from OPEC, Hochstein claims to have assurances from U.S. oil producers they will increase their production capacity by November.  At the same time the institutions in charge of Biden energy policy are going to keep targeting the oil producers to destroy them. Quite a weird dynamic.   Hochstein finishes by saying solar and windmills are the future of U.S. energy production and if we invest more, well, we can save the planet. WATCH:

It is worth remembering what MbS said about the meeting: “We agree on many things, but we differ on a few others. Every country has its own culture and circumstances. I respect yours, you respect mine. Do not impose your culture on us. Do not impose your beliefs on us.” … “We agree we need to do more for climate change, but you guys are doing it wrong by favoring certain energy sources over others. The world needs energy security. We need all energy sources including oil & gas. We are doing our part on both fronts: climate change & energy security.” … “The stage of a country’s economic & social development must be considered in climate change negotiations.” … “We are increasing our production capacity to 13 million barrels per day (from 12 mb/d), but that is it. We cannot do more.”

The message here is: You guys do your part and invest more if you want to avoid energy crises, recessions and unemployment. Do NOT blame us!

[Transcript] – MARGARET BRENNAN: Welcome back to Face The Nation. As President Biden met with Middle Eastern leaders last week, he was accompanied by Amos Hochstein, the Special Presidential Coordinator for International Energy Affairs. He’s with us now. Mr. Hochstein, Welcome to Face The Nation. Good to have you here in person.

PRESIDENTIAL COORDINATOR ON ENERGY SECURITY AMOS HOCHSTEIN: It’s great to be in person. Thank you.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So you were one of the few US officials in the room when President Biden met with Saudi leaders. Why was this trip worth the political risk? What did you get?

HOCHSTEIN: Well, I think this was a historic trip. First, it started just landing in Saudi Arabia in Jeddah, as the first-ever flight from for a president to fly from Israel, directly to Saudi Arabia, with the backdrop of Saudi Arabia, opening the announcing that they’re opening the skies for the first time for Israeli Aircraft, for all aircraft, including flights to and from Israel over its airspace, comes on the backdrop of a major achievement over the last few months of a ceasefire in Yemen, where 1000s of people have been killed. Over the last seven years, this has been the longest ceasefire we’ve had with a commitment from Saudi Arabia to work to extend the ceasefire even further; major announcements for food security and achieving contributions from the GCC from the Gulf countries on food security.

MARGARET BRENNAN: But none on oil, yet.

HOCHSTEIN: Well, we had a major announcement on cooperation on energy writ large. And if you recall, just before the President announced his trip just a few days before that OPEC+ made a- a major shift and its policies, recognizing that since Putin started amassing forces, the markets have been affected, and that there was a supply-demand issue and announced increases in supply over 50% for July and August. And I’m, based on what we heard, on the trip, I’m pretty confident that we’ll see a few more steps in the coming weeks.

MARGARET BRENNAN: So OPEC+ meets August 3. Saudi has some, very little spare capacity. So are you saying you got a wink and a nod that they’re going to pump more?

HOCHSTEIN: I think what we discussed, first of all, it’s not just about Saudi, it’s about we met with with the GCC and with Saudi Arabia. There is, I’m not going to go into how much spare capacity there is in Saudi Arabia and in UAE and Kuwait, etc. But there is additional spare capacity, there is room for increased production. As we’ve told producers in the United States, we’ve had conversations over the last several months and weeks, with OPEC. And I believe that there is still more room to-to see additional steps.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Saudi says it’s got like a million spare barrel capacity.

HOCHSTEIN: Again, it’s not just about Saudi, this is OPEC. So, there are other countries as well. So, we needed to see a little bit more. But let’s-let’s look at what has happened since the President announced his trip. Oil prices at that point were at about $120. Today, oil prices are around $100, $101. So that’s a $20 decline based on the steps–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –some of that economic concerns, though China, looking like it’s slowing and concerns here about consumption going down.

HOCHSTEIN: So there’s no doubt there’s never one reason why oil prices go up while goes down. As you know, in oil prices go up, they tend to say there’s only one reason; that’s the part of the political leadership. But if you think about it this way, over the last few months, the President has supplied the US market with a million barrels a day, which is a historic level from the strategic reserve. We’ve never done that before.

MARGARET BRENNAN: And that, what, ends in September?

HOCHSTEIN: No that-that will end towards the end of the year.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Will it end towards the end of the year? Can you afford to stop putting emergency supply on the market?

HOCHSTEIN: Well, look at what has happened. The private sector, as we talked to them, the United States said they can increase production in the United States by about a million barrels a day. But it’s going to take time to invest in it, it will come at the end of the year. So we stepped in, the president stepped in and said ‘I’ll fill that gap.’ So hopefully, my expectation is that the private sector in the US will have those increases coming, so we don’t need to have the emergency from the US government. In the meantime, we’ve seen the prices, both the oil price, but also the price of the pump has come down at the fastest rate that we have seen in over a decade. So, from over $5. And remember this just a few weeks ago–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –still pretty high, but it’s still pretty high. It may have come down a bit.

HOCHSTEIN It’s not $5 anymore, it’s now $4.55. And I expect it to come down more towards $4. And we already have many gas stations around the country that are below $4. So we’re this is the fastest decline rate that we’ve seen against a major increase in oil prices during a war in Europe, where one of the parties in the war is the third largest producer in the world. So these are extraordinary circumstances we’ve taken very tough measures to address them right away, both for the American consumer but really for global economy, too.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, we’ll watch to see if those gas prices continue to fall. I want to ask you about what the administration is pushing around the world which is this concept of putting a cap on the price of Russian oil that is sold, so that it’s not cutting back on the amount but rather the windfall profits Putin can profit off of it. What’s to stop Vladimir Putin from just saying, fine, I’m just going to stop pumping.

HOCHSTEIN: Well, I think that the wait, look the price cap is–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –Does that ruin your plan, if he does that?

HOCHSTEIN: Well, first, he could do that tomorrow, regardless of what we do on a price gap. You know, Putin has been an unreliable supplier, unfortunately. But I think what we’re doing is we’re designing the mechanisms so that he can still, he’d still would have revenues he needs those revenues to, that’s the only revenues he really has in his country. There’s nothing else in Russia except for oil and gas.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, JP Morgan says he’s got enough cash that he’s sitting on, that he could cut by 5 million barrels in that extreme example, that the price of oil would go up to over $300 a barrel, almost $400 dollars a barrel.

HOCHSTEIN: Well, what we want to be able to do is to mitigate where the price of oil on the world market doesn’t actually impact Russia at all, because we’re going to put a price cap, so that all they have is to get that price at no more than that.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Right.

HOCHSTEIN: We believe that that is the way to do it. So if prices go up, he still won’t get that price and we can reduce that price.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Why would India or China comply?

Well, first, at the G7, a couple of weeks ago, the G7 endorsed this idea as a good idea. We’re now starting to have the conversations with the major consumers. And I would ask the question the other way around, doesn’t every buyer try to get a lower price? So, I think every buyer is incentivized to pay less. And I’ll go a step further. Right now, regardless of what you see as the global oil price. That’s not what Putin’s getting. So these headlines about Putin getting some kind of a math between how much is he selling times the price of oil in the world, that’s not his revenue, because he’s already agreed to major discounts–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –He’s still taking in money and he’s still funding this war. So–

HOCHSTEIN: That’s what we’re trying to stop.

MARGARET BRENNAN: Right. But in the meantime, I want to ask you quickly about the president’s climate change efforts, this bill, and his proposal is completely stalled right now. The president says he’s going to take executive action, what is the plan? What are you going to actually do here in the United States?

HOCHSTEIN: Well, I think we’ve tried to get a plan where we can incentivize, great incentives for US investors–

MARGARET BRENNAN: –But you can’t block new oil and gas drilling, right? You can’t do some of those things, because they would counter your efforts.

HOCHSTEIN: Well, I think what we want to do in this in this bill that we’ve proposed, and we are hopeful that we still hope that that’s what Congress does, is to give it the kind of incentive assurances that we can have additional American investment in climate, renewable energy electric vehicles. Why wouldn’t we want to do that? Why would we want to make-to create an environment in which China is ahead of us? The rest of the world is making the investments and we’re not. We want to be able to put the kind of incentives that will be additional investment in the infrastructure for renewable energy, for solar, for wind, and for electric vehicles and for our nuclear fleet in this country. That’s how we get to climate. We didn’t get that today. The President is determined to take some action that he can through executive orders, and through other actions. We’ll see what we can do this weekend in the coming weeks. But again, I think that the responsibility here is to be able to invest into our future, whether we like it or not this those-some don’t like it. This is the future of energy markets in the United States and around the world. We got to decide do we want the US to lead, or do we want the Chinese to lead this?

MARGARET BRENNAN: You got to convince Senator Joe Manchin, we’ll be talking about that ahead in the segment, thank you very much for coming in. [LINK]

…”And then he said, Texas has no wind for the windmills.  Yes, Texas!”