Tag Archives: Progressivism

Apr 22 2021

Fourth Industrial Revolution Failure


Armstrong Economics Blog/AI Computers Re-Posted Apr 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: As a programmer and a client of Socrates, I can tell this is not some neural net or deep learning AI program. What you have created goes far beyond that. Do you care to share your design?

HS

ANSWER: No. I fooled around with neural nets back in the 80s. I could see they would never accomplish what was necessary for global analysis. The same was true about Deep Learning. Those are solutions for one-dimensional objectives, in my opinion. IBM spent untold amounts on its Watson. They thought it would be able to cure cancer. It failed.

What makes Socrates unique is that I had to TEACH it how I would analyze. It is not as simple as throwing in all the data and hoping something will create itself, as in neural nets. You can do that with a simple problem like creating an AI program to determine if making a loan will have a higher probability of default or not. You feed in all the past history and sort according to income, purpose, etc. That will work most of the time. However, what happens if there is an economic shock such as shutting down businesses due to COVID? Or perhaps a war emerges. No program created in such a manner will ever be able to forecast those external factors.

Even all the high-frequency trading programs are one-dimensional. The collapse of Archegos Capital is indicative of what happens with a one-dimensional program which inevitably will be used with personal opinion. Even the Long-Term Capital Management collapse was the same problem. They even wrote a book about that – “When Genius Failed.” These one-dimensional programs will work nicely until there is an outside external force that they can not see coming.

To accomplish what Socrates does is far beyond anything you can imagine. The variables are off the charts, and seeing the future even with the arrays involved 72 separate models. We must understand that most AI programs that people write are still very one-dimensional and lack nonlinear concepts.

Unfortunately, 99% of all programs that people claim are Artificial Intelligence are really just expert systems. For example, you could take every disease and list its symptoms. Then you add a query and the program would simply look up the disease based upon the symptom. This would probably be better than seeing most doctors for that is why they always say get a second opinion. This type of program is not AI, for there is no true independent thinking process taking place. Nevertheless, this is what is typically marketed as AI. This has created in and of itself a false impression of what Schwab calls the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Even facial recognition is simply a pattern comparison. Nothing is truly taking place other than a lookup system with a database.

What is online is a small fraction of what Socrates does. We intend to provide a desktop program that will be able to tap into language and voice capabilities. We can deliver voice via the internet, but trying to accept voice input from the client over the internet is a different problem altogether.

When Schwab boasts about the Fourth Industrial Revolution, he is clueless as to what that would even entail. You will not find even one mainstream media outlet that would dare to write a story that Socrates even exists. The analysis would change everything, for it is not based upon “opinion,” which they love to provide. Additionally, Schwab would block any press on Socrates because it also forecasts that this cabal of his fails in the end. Everything Schwab envisions is still one-dimensional. He has no idea of the complexity of the nonlinear design necessary to really provide a valid methodology for forecasting.

Apr 22 2021

DeSantis Extends Sales Tax Online in Florida for Unemployment


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes Re-Posted Apr 22, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

The Democrats are twisting the facts as always by claiming DeSantis is raising taxes on consumers and cutting taxes for business. The bill he just signed is estimated to tax consumers $1 billion a year, with the money first earmarked for the unemployment trust fund, which became depleted because of massive job losses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Businesses pay taxes that go into the trust fund and, without another source of money, would have faced higher taxes to replenish the fund. But what they do not tell the people is that pushing higher unemployment taxes on business actually means that comes out of your paycheck.

The Democrats just cannot bring themselves to ever tell the truth. While I am not in favor of raising sales taxes on everything I buy online, the net effect is that those with jobs would be paying the tax for those who lost their jobs thanks to lockdowns and COVID. Let’s call this what it really is — a COVID Tax.

Apr 21 2021

Public Corporate Political Activism is Fraud & Should Be DELISTED from Exchanges


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Would you cut off a corporate client who is endorsing this WOKE movement?

LD

ANSWER: Any corporation seeking to take out models while joining Schwab’s Stakeholder Corporate Activism can seek forecasting elsewhere. If Big Tech can have guidelines that justify stopping people from speaking or posting, then we too can adopt “community guidelines” because enough is enough. I have NO INTENTION of providing any assistance to any corporation that has joined Schwab in becoming a political activist. I personally think shareholders have a right to bring a lawsuit against the company and to remove all directors using corporate funds for their own political agenda. That, to me, is called FRAUD! Politics has no place in our sports any more than it does in the boardroom. Any company that allows its directors to use corporate funds to further their personal political agenda has no business in our economy.

The only time corporate activism is remotely justified is when some policy directly impacts the business of that corporation. Woke culture has nothing to do with the economy. I believe any public corporation engaged in “stakeholder economics” and political activism is at the personal decision of its directors, which is a violation of their fiduciary duty to their shareholders, and as such, should be DELISTED from any exchange!

Apr 21 2021

Who Are You Trading Against?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Basic Concepts Re-Posted Apr 21, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Hi Marty,

hope your are doing well.

I have some question regarding trading to you.

Why is this game mentally and physically so hard to learn… normally every trade has a 50:50 chance but if I enter the market everything is going „different“. Just trade against me and you will become even much richer, its crazy!

I think my biggest mistake is to enter a trade way too early … when I read the market could turn (maybe in 2 weeks) my reaction was /is „going short immediately“ – its just so dumb – but that is what brought me the heaviest losses this year. Shorted the DOW from the 30k level again and again.

Socrates is like a market navigation – I know that – and when the navy says right I drove left – always in fear the market could crash like last February.

…

maybe you can wright a bit more on your blog – what were your easiest secrets to become a successful trader. maybe a sample account which etf´s / stocks are promising for the rest of 2021 or some live trading sessions via chat on your socrates platform.

…

Sorry for disturbing you again and again – but I know you are the only man who really know how this game works and you might understand my „little“ problems. BTW: nice call for the top in Bitcoin !!!

THANK YOU

Have a good day and best wishes.

O

ANSWER: The most common problems in trading have been (1) over-trading and (2) anticipation.

Many think they are limiting their risk by trading too frequently. They do not want to risk, say $100, so they continually anticipate a trade and lose $20 ten times in a row. The real secret to trading is recognizing that your opponent is really yourself.

The problem with systems that require human judgment is that they expose your human frailties. Whether it is looking at technical patterns, candlesticks, or wave patterns, all of these forms of analysis require experience and whether you have a natural tendency to be artistic. Those who have an artistic eye can see patterns easier than those that do not. They will see a face in a cloud shape, but others will say they are nuts as it’s just a cloud.

The key is to try to eliminate that human judgment as much as possible. You only need to look at the setup when the price is reached, but during the time target. The monthly Array pinpointed April since the start of this year. Then you look at the Weekly, and it targeted last week with a Directional Change and higher volatility starting this week. Then look at the Daily level. This way, you are not looking at patterns yourself and acting on a hunch. Even the Global Market Watch came up with April as a possible important high, and that is just a pattern recognition model.

With every trade, you must always define where you are RIGHT and when you are WRONG. There are no DEPENDS once you put on a trade. We only have a DEPEND in the setup. Did it reach the time and the price? Other than that, once you are in, some people hate to take the loss because it is acknowledging they were wrong. If you have the setup, then selling against the high on that target week or day with a stop above that high makes sense, and it is a lower risk. If you think it will crash, so you keep selling on a hunch, you will lose.

Consequently, people who are into gold and just blame others because gold has not rallied as they expected are simply people who will never learn how to trade. Mistakes are important. We pay dearly for them, so pay attention. That is how we learn and advance in life. Every parent tells their child not to stick their finger in the flame of a candle. We all do. We have to learn for ourselves.

Remember, you are your real opponent. So make peace with yourself. Come to a truce.

Apr 17 2021

Speranza Resigns in Italy Admitting This is a Marxist Revolution Using Covid


Armstrong Economics Blog/Italy Re-Posted Apr 16, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Roberto Speranza is the Italian politician of the Chamber of Deputies who served as national secretary of Article One. He also served as the Minister of Health since 2019 under the government of Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte and was later confirmed by Prime Minister Mario Draghi. During his tenure, he was in charge of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. He has resigned saying:

 “I’m done in order to impose leftist culture”.

Speranza has said he is ashamed that the lockdowns have been akin to Stalinism. Mario Draghi, who took Europe to negative interest rates and destroyed the European Bond market, is trying to crush Italy into a leftist government where the EU is in total control. They have undermined the free markets and cannot repair the European economy. Raising rates would blow up the European Central Bank and unravel the EU framework.

Apr 16 2021

Resistance is not Futile – it is Inevitable


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Apr 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

Comment from Ireland: It seems your 2018 article was correct & more or less on time.

“From a cyclical perspective, if we begin on August 15th, 1969, then we are concluding a 51.6-year wave on 2021.2219178, which will be March 22nd. It is lining up with the Economic Confidence Model and the Monetary Crisis Cycle. Therefore, the violence will reemerge with a new trend once again driven by economics. Violence has continued sporadically but it has been rising gradually again since 2013.”

The Violence in Northern Ireland is Not Finished

Belfast violence of a scale not seen in recent years – PSNI
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2021/0408/1208593-psni/SM

1969.55

REPLY: It is my hope that people understand that these forecasts are NOT based upon my opinion. There is a cyclical nature to everything. The key is to open your eyes and look around you. If there is anything I can contribute to society before I am released from this chaotic world, I hope it will be the fact that we make that first step for mankind departing linear analysis and moving to the dynamic world of nonlinear activity where they finally grasp that everything has a cycle.

Cyclically, the time is now. From the landing on the Moon (1969.55), we have now reached 2021.15, marking the attempt to change the world once again on the negative side. The turning point before 1969.55 was 1917.95. Ironically, it was on Dember 15, 1917, when an armistice was signed between the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic on the one side and the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the Kingdom of Bulgaria, the German Empire, and the Ottoman Empire on the other. Communism was given the green light. Unfortunately, this particular cycle has warned that we indeed face the rise of tyranny once more here in 2021.

Resistance is not futile — it is inevitable.

Apr 15 2021

Our War Index


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Apr 15, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty,

I noticed the inclusion in the Global Market report in the world indexes a new listing for The War Index. What does this include(presumably armament stocks?) or is this a construct that comprises something geopolitical?

MS

ANSWER: This is an index we created with selected stocks that benefit during periods of war. This index is right now flirting with the Monthly Bullish Reversal, and we may get a monthly buy signal by the end of this month, warning that things are not looking very stable on the geopolitical front as we head into May.

Apr 14 2021

Food Index


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture Re-Posted Apr 13, 2021 by Martin Armstrong

In addition to our War Index and our Paradigm Shift Index, we are creating a Food Index based upon selected stocks. For now, keep an eye on the closing this month in our War Index. That is hovering right at the Monthly Bullish Reversal.

We are trying to provide tools free of conflicts of interest since we are not brokers in these instruments nor are we allowed to hold positions in them while providing forecasting. Such conflicts of interest are why those with such conflicts cannot be taken seriously by global institutions.

Apr 14 2021

Trouble Ahead, Inflation Jumps More than Expected – Gasoline Prices Increase 9.1% in One Month, Year Over Year Inflation 2.6%


Posted originally on the conservative tree house April 13, 2021 | Sundance | 333 Comments

The Bureau of Labor Statistics highlights some alarming inflation numbers today [Link Here] that are unfortunately, not unexpected…. unless you are a liberally trained economist (most of them) and so the results are surprisingly “unexpected”.    But the actual JoeBama-nomic policy is even worse because wages increased less than inflation increased, so real wages (actual purchasing power) decreased.  That spells trouble, Trouble.

Middle-class wage earners already know this problem; you are seeing it at the gas pumps and at the grocery store.  Fuel prices are rapidly increasing and the amount of inflation in the ‘at home’ food industry (grocery store) is even more concerning.

Let me first walk through the data and then provide some forward analysis with tips to help you offset what is about to hit.

First, it is important to know that BLS price survey data lags actual prices as felt today.  The prices you are seeing today/tommorrow at the store and gas pump will not show up in the rolled-up data for over a month….  So the data released today is unfortunately far behind what you are witnessing in real time.

Gas prices rose last month by 9.1%.  The year-over-year inflation number is an alarming 2.6 percent last month.  Keep in mind that retail grocery prices are not in the inflation number, and they generally follow the same price index as fuel; so it is safe to say monthly grocery store price increases are in the 8 to 10 percent range.

Part of the reason gas and food track together is fuel and energy prices are the #2 cost within the food sector.  With packaging prices increasing; with fuel prices and distribution costs increasing; with energy prices increasing; all costs associated with food production, processing, delivery, warehousing and distribution, all end up in the final price at the grocery store.

This problem with inflation is only going to get worse as the FED gets more involved (that’s coming), because interest rates are already disconnected from the economic costs associated with business investment. [Note: the Fed said last year that it would hold its benchmark interest rate near zero, for some time, even if inflation were to rise above its preferred rate.]  JoeBama is returning us to a “service driven economy”, and that is a problem for inflation.

President Trump’s MAGAnomic (USA First) increased wages and lowered prices (deflation) {Go Deep} but hurt Wall Street.  JoeBama’s globalist policies lower U.S. wages and increase prices (inflation) but increase Wall Street (via multinationals).

Gas prices are going to keep rising because JoeBama is shutting down U.S. energy sources, blocking pipelines and using regulation to stall energy development (including refineries).  We will be back to energy dependence soon.  This process will continue driving up food prices which is really bad for the middle-class.

In the longer term, the impact of wages purchasing less means middle-class housing prices will drop as people struggle to afford mortgages.  However, the Wall Street gains will keep the upper tier real estate market less impacted.  You can see how the wealth gap is directly attributed to policy.

Trump decreased the wealth gap with policies that disproportionately (in a good way) helped the middle-class and blue-collar worker by increasing wages.  JoeBama expands the wealth gap with policies that disproportionately (in a bad way) hurt the middle-class and blue-collar worker by decreasing real wages and increasing prices.  Under JoeBama-nomics the rich get richer and the poor get more poor.

If you know that fuel and food prices are going to increase, you can take action now to plan out your home budget in an effort to offset or cope with the inflation.  Example: buy bulk items that can last longer as ingredients.  You can also save money by making your own laundry detergent, shop sales, cut coupons and be proactive in preparation for a period of large price increases at the supermarket.  Use your freezer and eat out less.

Employment is going to be an issue again.  While the current employment picture is good, it will not last into 2022.  Make a safety net now (somehow) and start thinking about your longer term expenses and how you can take action now in preparation.

I am not a doomsayer… but I can see when supply chains start to fill up because overall demand begins to stall.  We are exactly at that point.