China, Russia and Cuba are financing and supporting the socialist regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. Russian and Chinese military equipment was previously shipped into the country and military members from Cuba are fighting on the ground.
In response to the violence and presence of the Cuban military, President Trump is now threatening a full and complete embargo of Cuba by the U.S.
“We will hold accountable those who turn to violence or inflict violence upon the Venezuelan people. There will be a day for accountability for all those who engage in this,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says of the uprising in Venezuela
Well, it looks like the outcome of a horsetrading deal is starting to assemble. President Trump meeting with Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer et al, to discuss a $2 trillion infrastructure deal. Despite their schemes and plots this is worth watching:
.
Democrats don’t want the baggage of a tax increase heading into 2020… so Schumer punts the financing of the $2 trillion to President Trump; forcing the White House to deal with the dirty part (likelihood a gas tax increase), while Schumer/Pelosi keep clean hands on the high-brow aspect of beautiful infrastructure. That part is politically predictable.
That said, CTH can see the outline a deal where Democrats exchange votes for President Trump’s trade deals (specifically USMCA); to offset the Wall Street Republicans that will vote against the trade agreements; in return for provisions of an infrastructure deal that will benefit Pelosi/Schumer.
The devil is going to be deep in the details because Democrats will attempt to use any massive spending bill to purchase (and repay) votes and activism from their political constituents, ie. Union Leadership.
(White House) Press Secretary’s Statement on President Trump’s meeting on Infrastructure:
“Today, President Donald J. Trump, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senator Richard Durbin, Senator Patty Murray, Senator Debbie Stabenow, Senator Ron Wyden, Senator Tom Carper, House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, Representative James Clyburn, Representative Ben Ray Lujàn, Representative Richard Neal, and Representative Peter DeFazio had an excellent and productive meeting on rebuilding our Nation’s crumbling infrastructure including roads, highways, bridges, tunnels and railroads, modernizing our air travel system, and expanding broadband access for our great farmers and rural America.
The United States has not come even close to properly investing in infrastructure for many years, foolishly prioritizing the interests of other countries over our own. We have to invest in this country’s future and bring our infrastructure to a level better than it has ever been before. We will have another meeting in three weeks to discuss specific proposals and financing methods.
The President and the Democrat leaders also agreed to a meeting in the near future to discuss prescription drug prices. We look forward to building on this Administration’s success in having lowered drug prices for the first time in 50 years. President Trump feels there is a long way to go – drug prices should be much lower than they are today.
The President looks forward to working together in a bipartisan way and getting things done for the American people.” (link)
National Security Adviser John Bolton holds a press availability to discuss the crisis in Venezuela following a briefing with President Trump. Mr. Bolton said “we are seeing the Venezuelan people strive to get a government that they control, not an authoritarian military regime”, adding “this is a very serious situation. The president has been monitoring it minute-by-minute throughout the day.”
Bolton emphasized “this is clearly not a coup. We recognize Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela.” He called it a “potentially dispositive moment” for Venezuelans to regain their freedom”, later referencing “a very delicate moment.” If this effort fails, they will sink into a dictatorship from which there are very few possible alternatives.”
U.S. Secretary of State calls it “Operation Liberty” and supports opposition leader Juan Guaido. The Venezuela regime of Nicolas Maduro calls it a “coup attempt” and has help from Russia and Cuba to put down the uprising. The regular Venezuelan military, and the ordinary people of the country appear to be caught in the middle.
Perhaps this is the last effort of Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido to shift the balance of power. The White House is supportive but cautious. Everything is tenuous as Venezuela appears to be on the brink of extreme political violence.
CARACAS (Reuters) – Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaido on Tuesday made his strongest call yet to the military to help him oust President Nicolas Maduro, and violence broke out at anti-government protests as the country hit a new crisis point after years of political and economic chaos.
Several dozen armed troops accompanying Guaido clashed with soldiers supporting Maduro at a rally outside the La Carlota air base in Caracas, but the incident fizzled out and did not appear to be part of an immediate attempt by the opposition to take power through military force.
Guaido, in Twitter posts, wrote that he had begun the “final phase” of his campaign to topple Maduro, calling on Venezuelans and the armed forces to back him ahead of May Day mass street protests planned for Wednesday.
“The moment is now!” he wrote. “The future is ours: the people and Armed Forces united to put an end” to Maduro’s time in office.
Tens of thousands of people were marching in Caracas in support of Guaido on Tuesday, clashing with riot police along the main Francisco Fajardo thoroughfare. A National Guard armored car slammed into protesters who were throwing stones and hitting the vehicle.
Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino called the latest instability a “coup movement” but several hours after Guaido’s announcement there was no sign of any other anti-Maduro military activity. Guaido later left a rally he was holding with military supporters at the air base. (read more)
Angus Berwick@AABerwick
Caracas’ Francisco de Miranda avenue after Venezuelans flooded streets today to support Guaido.
Venezuela foreign minister denies a military coup is underway, accuses opposition leader Guaido of operating under orders from Washington https://reut.rs/2ZIXOkw
This looks like a no-retreat proposition. Those in the military who make a decision to support Juan Guaido can never return to life before the inflection point and will be targets of the Maduro regime. A terrible crisis with few good options.
Our prayers for the Venezuelan people who are caught up in this political nightmare.
#OperacionLibertad is underway in #Venezuela & the world is watching. @jguaido’s safety must be guaranteed. The Venezuelan people are demanding change, a peaceful democratic transition, & return to prosperity. It’s time for the illegitimate regime to step aside. #EstamosUnidosVE
#OperacionLibertad is underway in #Venezuela & the world is watching. @jguaido’s safety must be guaranteed. The Venezuelan people are demanding change, a peaceful democratic transition, & return to prosperity. It’s time for the illegitimate regime to step aside. #EstamosUnidosVE
Secretary Pompeo
✔@SecPompeo
What we are seeing today in #Venezuela is the will of the people to peacefully change the course of their country from one of despair to one of freedom and democracy. The U.S. stands with them and @jguaido now and always. #EstamosUnidosVE
QUESTION: I have been following your blog for a number of years, public and private. I read the blog concerning “European Politics.” In it you state the capital flight will be a contagion. I understand what the influx of European capital will have on the DOW and S&P, but much less certain of the duration of the impact and contagion. My question is two part; 1) what impact will the contagion have on the US Dollar and how do you expect the US Fed to react interest rate wise and 2) duration of equities move up – short-lived or longer-term trend is your friend.
Thanks
CF
ANSWER: The contagion will last probably 2 years at best. There was such a contagion during the Great Depression. That is what Milton Friedman used to criticize the Fed. All this gold came to the USA pushing the dollar higher, but the Fed refused to monetize it. The backing of gold behind the dollar doubled between 1929 and 1931.
This time we are on a floating exchange rates system so the Fed cannot sterilize the capital inflows as it did during the Great Depression imposing austerity as Germany demand today. Today, the capital inflows are targeting the equities because the interest rates are artificially low. If the stock market explodes, the Fed will be criticized by Congress for creating asset inflation and creating a bubble with low-interest rates.
Unlike the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, the US bond market is the only thing trading. The Fed is not trapped as are the other central banks. At some point, the Fed will be obligated to raise rates to fight against the asset bubble, but that will then attract even more capital and push the BoJ and ECB over the edge.
Keep in mind that ONLY a rising dollar compel monetary reform in the USA. During 1934 Roosevelt devalued the dollar and in 1985 they created the G5 to stage an organized group to manipulate the dollar lower. All those people touting gold will rally and the dollar will crumble are clueless. A lower dollar will increase corporate profits and reduce trade deficits. ONLY a higher dollar will break the monetary system.
QUESTION: Dear Martin,
Would you like to enlighten me on your stance on the Modern Market Theory that is being touted by some in finance and politics please?
VV
ANSWER: The basis upon which MMT has emerged is actually logical for those who lack the understanding of how to conduct research. Since QE has lasted in Europe for 10 years+ without success in creating inflation, they take this as proof that the government can just print without concern of inflation. Money has value only because it is legal tender. I have written about this subject before – MMT.
I will address this in a detailed report because all economic models have now failed. This is part of the Great Unknown we have entered in Economic Theory. Central Banks are without a map and are now lost in the wilderness.
QUESTION: Martin you appear to be very bearish on the British pound when comparing with the Us Dollar. Does the outcome of Brexit make any difference to your view.?
SB
ANSWER: The British Parliament under the direction of Prime Minister May has been a disaster. She was a “Remainer” in her heart and the performance of the negotiations reflects that reluctance to leave the EU. The forecast our system has been making on the pound is based upon the performance of the market – not fundamentals.
Still, the fundamentals are reflected through confidence which then shows up in the price action of markets. The decline in the pound has reflected May’s inability to make a deal. Her strategy appears to be one who is on the payroll of Brussels – not the British people. It appears she refuses to negotiate and hopes that it will come down to a hard exit of her deal. This is what she is counting on and there can be a no-confidence vote until December to boot her out.
It is beside me why British politicians do not simply look at their own data and the facts. The UK has experience lower economic growth ever since it joined the EU. It loses just about every argument in the European court. Here is a clip from the Guardian on December 30, 1998, which showed even back then that 58.5% of trade in Britain was outside the EU. Britain cannot enter any trade deals with anyone without the approval of all 28 members of the EU. If just one objects, the deal is dead.
Perhaps PM May sings Frank Sinatra’s song My Way in the shower every morning to boost her spirits. BREXIT has been turned into a joke.
The U.S. economic numbers continue to gain strength. Ahead of his departure to China for ongoing trade negotiations, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin discusses the current state of the economy with Maria Bartiromo.
.
Secretary Mnuchin and USTR Lighthizer arrive in China tomorrow. This meeting will determine their recommendations to President Trump as to whether a deal can be reached. If no, the potential to re-institute delayed round-two tariffs is possible.
The professional financial punditry can’t explain it. Flummoxed academics run around bumping into walls amid economic numbers that continue to defy expectations. All caused by a simple return to common sense ‘America First’ MAGAnomics.
Low unemployment (3.8%); wages growing (+3.2%); inflation stable (1.6%). These measures all have a cumulative impact on paycheck-to-paycheck Americans. Prices for durable goods are stable and wage growth is exceeding inflation. That means more disposable income in the middle-class…DUH. Which, when combined with the increased pay from lower middle-class tax rates, is exactly the intended outcome of MAGAnomics.
Today the BEA is out with consumer spending results for the first quarter that defy expectations. Consumer spending on goods increases 1.7%. Overall spending +.09 in March, reaches highest gain in ten years. The deplorables are spending their higher wages. Go figure. Meanwhile core inflation drops to 1.6%. The pundits are shocked.
(Reuters Headline) “U.S. consumer spending roars back, but inflation tame” – WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. consumer spending increased by the most in more than 9-1/2 years in March as households stepped up purchases of motor vehicles, but price pressures remained muted, with a key inflation measure posting its smallest annual gain in 14 months.
[…] “The economy is in a sweet spot for now with not enough inflation to cause the Fed to raise rates, and with inflation not low enough to worry Fed officials that economic demand is weakening, which could require rate cuts,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, surged 0.9 percent. That was the biggest rise since August 2009 and was also driven by increased healthcare expenditures. Spending rose 0.1 percent in February.
Data for January was revised up to show consumer spending rising 0.3 percent instead of the previously reported 0.1 percent gain.
[…] In March, spending on goods rebounded 1.7 percent, with outlays on long-lasting manufactured goods such as cars shooting up 2.3 percent. Spending on goods fell 0.5 percent in February. Outlays on services increased 0.5 percent last month, driven by healthcare spending, after rising 0.4 percent in February.
Inflation was benign, with the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding the volatile food and energy components unchanged in March after edging up 0.1 percent in February. That lowered the year-on-year increase in the so-called core PCE price index to 1.6 percent, the smallest increase since January 2018, from 1.7 percent in February. (more)
It really is quite funny to watch the professional financial class try to wrap their arms around what is happening. Cue the audio visual:
The “Vhobbles”
.
Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, it just ain’t that complex. The U.S. is where the growth is. We are in the period where exporting U.S. wealth (globalist policies) has been slowed/halted. We are confronting protectionist tariffs abroad which impede our exports, and simultaneously applying reciprocal tariffs toward those who want access to our U.S. market. As a consequence, capital investment is returning to Main Street USA (nationalist policy).
This is the heart of MAGAnomic policy.
Low unemployment; rising wages; stable inflation and resurging U.S. blue-collar manufacturing is the key (steel/aluminum tariffs assisting).
This internal dynamic means the U.S. consumer can fuel the the U.S. economy while President Trump, Secretary Ross, Secretary Mnuchin and Ambassador Robert Lighthizer utilize the leverage of tariffs, to negotiate better America-First trade deals.
CTH 2016[…] Understanding the distance between the real Main Street economic engine and the false Wall Street economic engine will help all of us to understand the scope of an upcoming economic lag; which, rather remarkably I would add, is a very interesting dynamic.
Think about these engines doing a turn about and beginning a rapid reverse. GDP can, and in my opinion, will, expand quickly. However, any interest rate hikes (fiscal policy) intended to cool down that expansion -fearful of inflation- will take a long time to traverse the divide.
Additionally, inflation on durable goods will be insignificant – even as international trade agreements are renegotiated. Why? Simply because the originating nations of those products are going to go through the same type of economic detachment described above. [What the USA previously went through]
Those global manufacturing economies will first respond to any increases in export costs (tariffs etc.), by driving their own productivity higher as an initial offset, in the same manner American workers went through in the past two decades. The manufacturing enterprise and the financial sector remain focused on the pricing.
♦ Inflation on imported durable goods sold in America, while necessary, will ultimately be minimal during this initial period; and expand more significantly as time progresses and off-shored manufacturing finds less and less ways to be productive. Over time, durable good prices will increase – but it will come much later. [By that time, U.S. manufacturing will have reestablished position and offset any import pressure.]
♦ Inflation on domestic consumable goods ‘may‘ indeed rise at a faster pace. However, it can be expected that U.S. wage rates will respond faster, naturally faster, than any fiscal policy influence because inflation on fast-turn consumable goods becomes re-coupled to the ability of wage rates to afford them.
The fiscal policy impact lag, caused by the distance between federal fiscal action and the domestic Main Street economy, will now work in our favor. That is, in favor of the middle-class. (full outline)
We have not had the benefit of this economic success in the past 40 years because corrupt multinational interests were paying and bribing -via lobbyists- politicians and public officials within the administrative state to block independent U.S. wealth.
I have created this site to help people have fun in the kitchen. I write about enjoying life both in and out of my kitchen. Life is short! Make the most of it and enjoy!
This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
CNN Politics
Agent Applebutt
Centinel2012 