Yellow Vests Becoming World Wide Movement


The Yellow Vest Movement that began in France, is spreading. It appeared also in Belgium and it spread to Canada as well. The French arrested the leaders of the Yellow Vest Movement calling them an anti-government charging them for organizing an unauthorized protest, as authorities adopt a tougher approach to try to curb the demonstrations. During the weekend of December 15th, mimicking the Yellow Vest movement in France, protests have formed all over Canada. These are peaceful protests, unlike in France, but they have continued every weekend in various cities such as Toronto, Halifax, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Calgary etc, especially in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Alberta has long been known as the oil province of Canada and is highly commodity driven. With NDP (New Democratic Party) preventing the expansion of the TransMountain Pipeline
from Alberta’s Edmonton to BC’s Burnaby after the project has already been approved by the federal government back in 2013, many people are unemployed. With oil in Western Canada
(Western Canadian Select) hitting $11.43 a barrel in November, companies simply cannot afford to stay in business. Combining this with the announcement that the price of vegetables
increased 4%-6% as of January 1st, it’s no wonder that many Canadians are frustrated.

This is also apparent as Calgary voted a resounding NO on a bid for hosting the 2026 Winter Olympics on November 13th. An estimate of $5.11 billion was announced with additional extra
costs which were never disclosed, people voted no to the increase the taxation in order to pay for it. The wrong event at the wrong time and people simply can’t afford to foot the bill.
Bottom line, too many taxes impact quality of life and no one will take to the streets when they are fat and happy.

What’s important here is that not only has Canada joined the Yellow Vest Movement, but it’s still going strong every weekend, Christmas, New Years, the protests against rising socialism
continue. Trudeau might have his work cut out for him before the next election in Canada in October 2019.

Plunge Protection Myths = Keynesian Economic Myths


QUESTION: What about what China did by buying stocks a few years ago to stop the hang sang from dropping

ANSWER: Do not confuse attempts to support a market from actually being able to do so. This is the same as Keynesian economics that government could prevent recessions. Larry Summers admitted the government cannot even forecast such events. Not only during the Great Depression did companies jump in to buy their shares during the crash to try to prevent the decline. Most of the companies that took that action actually failed for they bought the stock back trying to hold the price and lost needed cash reserves. They could not sell stock again nor could the borrow.

During the collapse of the Nikkei after 1989, companies held believing that the government would support the market. When they realized the government could not then the government encouraged us to bail out the Japanese corporations. We helped well over 300 public companies issuing a note to buy their portfolios at their cost with 10-year payouts and each note had to be approved by the Japanese government individually. If the governments were able to actually prevent declines, then they would. But nobody can do that for the size of the public at large far outweighs any institution, group of institutions, or banks.

People would rather believe in conspiracy theories than simply look at the reality. Attempts to manipulate markets ALWAYS fail because the majority is far greater than any minority. The trend is made by the MAJORITY. A panic sell-off like the Crash of 1987 took place BECAUSE there was no bid – not that there was a massive short position. Scare the MAJORITY and they then try to sell, you find no bid and that is how a flash crash unfolds. This is why outlawing short positions is destructive for the only person with the courage to try to catch a falling knife is the one who is taking profit – not initiating a long position.

President Trump Holds First Cabinet Meeting of 2019 – Full Media Presser…


U.S. President Donald Trump holds the first cabinet meeting of 2019 and allows the media to engage for a lengthy question and answer session:

The Myth of the Plunge Protection Team


COMMENT: It looks like the Plunge Protection Team had a field day with the 1,000 rally in the Dow. Back in the 70s I read a small article near the back page of the WSJ that said that the CIA was using two small obscure banks in the Midwest to trade futures. The way they do it is to buy the futures and force the floor traders to stop selling. Then they pile it on and force the shorts to cover.

CM

ANSWER: That is really impossible. I have NEVER found a market that has EVER defied our model. The market bottomed precisely when it should have. Our Cyclical Array pinpointed the day well in advance. That proves there was nothing unusual. Last Friday the 21st, I wrote on the Private Blog: “We do have another Weekly Bearish Reversal at 22739 and a closing below that could warn of a Cycle Inversion meaning down into new week bottoming perhaps on the 26th and then rally into the following week for year-end and then turn back down into January.”

If what you are saying is true, then the government would never collapse and they are 100% in control of everything. That is just not the case. You are attributing power to them that they believe they have. However, if they had such power, then taxes would never rise for they are 100% in control and nothing would happen. Larry Summers, the father of negative interest rates, admitted in a Bloomberg interview that those in power can NEVER forecast a decline because it is a complex system.

I wrote on the Private Blog on December 24th: “The likelihood of lower lows into the 26th are good. But this week remains as a Panic Cycle so we can then see a whipsaw back up into the end of the week. Primary support still lies at the 21600 and 21450 level followed by 20002.”

Then on the day of the low, 26th of December, I posted on the Private Blog at 3AM for the European Open: “Often the bulk of a decline will unfold the day BEFORE the market closes. This is typically as natural human response of the fear of the unknown after the market reopens.”

 

 

I just do not see ANYTHING in the market behavior or patterns that would indicate something abnormal. The real explanation is just that all the selling took place on Monday as people feared it would collapse further on the 26th after the market opened. That has been the pattern for more than 100 years – panic before a close of the market for fear of the unknown. Sorry, great story about the Plunge Protection Team. A similar theory prevailed in Japan that the government would NEVERallow the Nikkei to fall. It did, and that belief led to a 19-year depression in share market price, but 26-year economic depression which did not begin to shift trend until 2015.75.

There have been attempts to create a Plunge Protection Team before. The banks got together to try to save the market back in October 1929. Here is the Los Angeles Times from October 26th, 1929 talking about the Stabilizing Forces to save the market. They failed to prevent the Great Depression.

Nobody can step in front of a falling market and survive. Nevertheless, despite the continued failure of such efforts, this myth is always spun. Anyone who believes that such a Plunge Protection Team can even survive never bothers to look at history.

President Trump Gives Four Month Timeline For U.S. Troop Withdrawal from Syria…


Hopefully President Trump can withstand the severe UniParty manipulation and actually get the troops out within the four month time-frame. However, with John Bolton as National Security Adviser, consider me slightly skeptical.  Bolton loves war

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Big Optical Shift – Unprecedented New Year Speech by North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un…


Yesterday we noted how subtle (and not so subtle) messages have been coming out from Beijing China admitting how the party of Chairman Xi underestimated the cunning fortitude of U.S. President Donald Trump.   Today, a stunning visual is broadcast from inside North Korea which follows the same general outlook.

Remember, nuance and subtle optics are very significant in Eastern projections of political brand messaging.  When they present a nationally broadcast message every grain of sand on the optical beach has been thought out, considered, staged and carefully placed by hand with great forethought toward the intended audience. The optics are everything. [That’s also the reason why POTUS Trump used a video presentation (specifically for Kim) at the end of the Singapore summit.]

In an unprecedented international broadcast, North Korea’s Kim Jong-un delivers a message not just to his people, but more specifically to the international community.  The backdrop, the venue for the message as broadcast, reflects a stunning shift for the country of North Korea.  Notice the background message is ‘economic‘: Business attire; business office etc.  The guiding hand of Chairman Xi is visible, and the transmission is full of messages highlighting the influence of the Trump Doctrine.

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It is critical to remember that Chairman Xi (Beijing China), is still the leading influence agent over Chairman Kim (DPRK). That nuanced/subtle (hostage/captive) influence message is also inherent in the background of this broadcast. As the U.S. -vs- China confrontation continues, this video message provides additional support that Chinese Chairman Xi Jinping is no longer underestimating the cunning of POTUS Trump.

Discussions of these geopolitical messages need to be entirely separated from the propaganda explanations provided by U.S. media.  U.S. corporate media, advocates for extreme globalism, spin everything into a criticism of President Trump; however, the message here from Kim Jong-un is far more consequential.

Chairman Kim is talking about security issues, denuclearization, weapons, military exercises etc.  However, the bigger background message is centered specifically on the economics.   Broadly speaking President Trump’s doctrine is: the strategically applied use of economic influence to achieve national security objectives.

That Trump Doctrine, a radical shift in the deployment of U.S. geopolitical influence, is the entire reason why Chairman Kim Jong-un is engaging this speech; in this venue; in this business manner; for this domestic and international broadcast.

Remember also, the clock is ticking…. the deadline for U.S. and China trade negotiations is March 1st, OR ELSE, a massive round of devastating (for China) tariffs kicks in and almost everyone agrees the Chinese economy cannot sustain itself under that pressure.  So Chairman Xi needs to use his hostage, Chairman Kim, in this negotiation period.

[*Important point*: South Korean President Moon Jae-in, the primary point of contact for Chairman Kim, is ideologically the Asian political equivalent of Barack Obama. So that interpersonal dynamic also overlays the issues with a unified Korean peninsula.]

The full video as originally broadcast from North Korea is even more insightful.

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The influence of the Trump Doctrine is clearly on display.

Things are really going at a rapid pace now….

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO EVERYONE, INCLUDING THE HATERS AND THE FAKE NEWS MEDIA! 2019 WILL BE A FANTASTIC YEAR FOR THOSE NOT SUFFERING FROM TRUMP DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. JUST CALM DOWN AND ENJOY THE RIDE, GREAT THINGS ARE HAPPENING FOR OUR COUNTRY!

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Peace is the prize” ~ President Donald Trump

The nature of the Trump foreign policy doctrine, as it has become visible, is to hold manipulative influence agents accountable for regional impact(s); and simultaneously work to stop any corrupted influence from oppressing free expression of national values held by the subservient, dis-empowered, people within the nation being influenced.

There have been clear examples of this doctrine at work. When President Trump first visited the Middle-East he confronted the international audience with a message about dealing with extremist influence agents. President Trump simply said: “drive them out.”

Toward that end, as Qatar was identified as a financier of extremist ideology, President Trump placed the goal of confrontation upon the Gulf Cooperation Council, not the U.S.

The U.S. role was clearly outlined as supporting the confrontation. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates needed to confront the toxic regional influence; the U.S. would support their objective. That’s what happened.

Another example: To confront the extremism creating the turmoil in Afghanistan, President Trump placed the burden of bringing the Taliban to the table of governance upon primary influence agent Pakistan. Here again, with U.S. support. Pakistan is the leading influence agent over the Taliban in Afghanistan; the Trump administration correctly established the responsibility and gives clear expectations for U.S. support.

If Pakistan doesn’t change their influence objective toward a more constructive alignment with a nationally representative Afghanistan government, it is Pakistan who will be held accountable. Again, the correct and effective appropriation of responsibility upon the influence agent who can initiate the solution, Pakistan.

The process of accurate regional assignment of influence comes with disconcerting sunlight. Often these influences are not discussed openly. However, for President Trump the lack of honesty is only a crutch to continue enabling poor actors. This is a consistent theme throughout all of President Trump’s foreign policy engagements.

The European Union is a collective co-dependent enabler to the corrupt influences of Iran. Therefore the assignment of responsibility to change the status is placed upon the EU.

The U.S. will fully support the EU effort, but as seen in the withdrawal from the Iran Deal, the U.S. will not enable growth of toxic behavior. The U.S. stands with the people of Iran, but the U.S. will not support the enabling of Iranian oppression, terrorism and/or dangerous military expansion that will ultimately destabilize the region. Trump holds the EU accountable for influencing change. Again, we see the Trump Doctrine at work.

Perhaps the most obvious application of the Trump Doctrine is found in how the U.S. administration approached the challenging behavior of North Korea. Rather than continuing a decades-long policy of ignoring the influence of China, President Trump directly assigned primary responsibility for a reset to Beijing.

China held, and holds, all influence upon North Korea and has long-treated the DPRK as a proxy province to do the bidding of Beijing’s communist old guard. By directly confronting the influence agent, and admitting openly for the world to see (albeit with jaw-dropping tactical sanction diplomacy) President Trump positioned the U.S. to support a peace objective on the entire Korean peninsula and simultaneously forced China to openly display their closely-guarded influence.

While the Red Dragon -vs- Panda influence dynamic is still ongoing, the benefit of this new and strategic approach has brought the possibility of peace closer than ever in recent history.

No longer is it outlandish to think of North Korea joining with the rest of the world in achieving a better quality of life for its people.

Not only is President Trump openly sharing a willingness to engage in a new and dynamic future for North Korea, but his approach is removing the toxic influences that have held down the possibility for generations. By leveraging China (through economics) to stop manipulating North Korea, President Trump is opening up a door of possibilities for the North Korean people. This is what I mean when I say Trump is providing North Korea with an opportunity to create an authentic version of itself.

What ultimately comes from the opportunity President Trump has constructed is entirely unknown. However, the opportunity itself is stunning progress creating a reasonable pathway to prosperity for the North Korean people. Chairman Kim Jong-un has the opportunity to be the most trans-formative leader within Asia in generations; but it is still only an ‘opportunity’.

Whether Kim Jong-un can embrace openness, free markets and prosperity is yet to be seen. Freedom is a precariously scary endeavor because there’s always a danger loosening the grip on control can lead to fear, which can lead to even tighter more authoritarian, control.  (continue reading)

Jair Bolsonaro Inaugurated as President of Brazil…


The inauguration of former army Captain turned congressman Jair Bolsonaro was held today in Brazil; delivering the first nationalist outlook to the office of the presidency in decades.

President Jair Bolsonaro and First-Lady of Brazil Michelle Bolsonaro both delivered speeches during the inauguration ceremony, with the first lady also using sign language (her father is deaf).

President Bolsonaro now takes the reins of Latin America’s largest and most populous nation after decades of corruption carried out by Brazil’s far-left politicians. Many will remember a failed assassination attempt on candidate Bolsonaro by opposition from the socialist workers party only a few weeks before the election. Bolsonaro has vowed to end business-as-usual governing which led to rampant corruption.

Many people within the far-left ridiculed Bolsonaro while he was a congressman and stated his Brazil-First outlook was too nationalistic amid a world now driven by global influence. The marginalization by those voices failed and now President Bolsonaro will likely chart a different course.  (Sound familiar?)

There are many similarities in national outlook between U.S. President Donald Trump and President Bolsonaro especially regarding economics and trade. Additionally, following a similar decision by President Trump, Brazil will now move their Israeli embassy to Jerusalem.

Overall the U.S. Brazil relationship could make for an interesting alignment in South/Latin America; this relationship will become particularly important around the geopolitical strategy and influence of China in the region.

The 63-year-old President campaigned heavily on an anti-corruption, Brazil-first, nationalist agenda and promised to support gun ownership rights for law-abiding people within Brazil.  Both Trump and Bolsonaro are opposed by the same groups.

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

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Jair M. Bolsonaro

@jairbolsonaro

Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump

Congratulations to President @JairBolsonaro who just made a great inauguration speech – the U.S.A. is with you!

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Epic Retort – President Trump Discusses Senator Warren…


President Trump was asked about Senator Elizabeth Warren as a 2020 presidential challenger.  The response was, well, epic.  WATCH: