German Healthcare Deficit 300% Greater than Expected Due to Refugees


Healthcare costs have been exploding even in Germany. The revisions in healthcare of about two years ago did expand the coverage, but the expanded costs were completely unexpected. That means Germany is also looking to now raise taxes to cover the higher costs due to their legislative reforms. The reforms have brought in more people in need of care and relatives than expected.

Currently, the tax contribution rate for healthcare in Germany is 2.55% of the gross wage and those who are childless pay even more since they lack a family to burden part of the costs. Their rate stands at 2.8% of their gross wage. In the United States, the Medicare tax is a fixed percentage of your gross pay as well with the percentage rate of 1.45%. There is no income cap for Medicare tax, so all of your gross pay is subject to this tax. Your employer pays another 1.45%.

The statutory long-term care insurance deficit in Germany came in at about three billion euros, which was much higher than expected. In fact, it was about 300% higher than the government’s forecasts. The Central Association of Statutory Health Insurance (GKV) has come out and stated that the sharp rise in the deficit was triggered by the reforms of the past two years. The move is to raise taxes even further since once benefits are given, they cannot just take them back. But what is absent from the discussion is the deficit has risen not simply because of the reforms. This sharp increase is due to the refugees who must be taken care of even though they do not work or pay the tax

Scandinavia Receiving Capital Inflows As Well As Poland & Hungary


Just to Clarify, we are also picking up Capital Inflows from the EU moving into Scandinavia – Denmark, Sweeden & Norway. We also see money moving into Poland and Hungary which appears to be some diversification movement. What has become increasingly apparent is the mere fact that confidence among SERIOUS money is starting to realize the EU is a failure.

As I have stated previously, the failure to consolidate the debts (see our original reports on the Euro) reflects the failure to really respect the different cultures within the EU no less trust them. This is why the debt was never consolidated and they adopted bail-ins so that one country would NOT be bailing out banks in another. This has all reflected at its core a refusal to accept the principle of a federalize Europe that MUST include transfer payments among states without prejudice.

You cannot have a system that dictates from the center but then refuses to actually respect the member states are one political body. This European Experiment has been a complete failure because it is trying to create some sort of half-baked-country in name only.

The EU should have remained as simply a trade union. Leave it at that. Centralized control was the downfall of Russia and China under a communist state system. People know best how to expand and respond to economic conditions. Germany depends on an export model and Greece depends on a tourist model. These are starkly different economics models.

Moreover, the EU should respect the individual member states that one-size does not fit all. Furthermore, the average family is better equipped to save for their future than pretend social programs that if operated by a private individual would be a criminal charge of frau

The Uses of Children


By Tabitha Korol

Using children in war situations is not a new phenomenon.  They are the most vulnerable to the ruling powers, easily taken from unarmed parents and pressed into service by a government. Czarist Russia drafted children for 20 years, at least 300,000 non-Jewish and 75,000 Jewish Cantonists. Hitler’s Germany drafted thousands of young boys, Hitler youth, indoctrinating them to dedicate their lives for the Reich, unto death if necessary, and most were poorly trained and sent on suicide missions.  As many as 40 million children, orphaned by AIDS, and controlled by drugs and religious or political fervor, were recruited in Africa.

Today, nearly 80 percent of about 30 conflicts worldwide have as many as 300,000 young combatants, ages 7 through 15, serving the war effort as scouts, messengers, looters, sex slaves, minesweepers, laborers, makers of bombs and terror tunnels, advance ambush, and suicide bombers.  Nearly a half-million children serve in armies not at war – duped, exploited and wasted.

The use of children extends to indoctrination.  In Islamic shame/honor cultures, the child is forced to learn the Koran with punishment by the whip, bonding them with violence for life.  The child bride, often bartered or kidnapped, becomes an uneducated, incompetent and irresponsible mother, who is still dealing with the abuse, anxiety and trauma of having her female identity excised – female genital mutilation.  The ritual produces a damaged self-image, the shame of being female and a self-hatred that is passed on to her numerous children who may well be the result of rape in a forced marriage.  Shaming fuels violent aggression that reinforces the male’s brutality, not unlike the self-pity and sense of victimization that fueled Nazism.

Defenseless children may also be used as human shields and jihadis to increase their own death toll and net sympathy from the United Nations, and the girls often serve as “comfort women” for their commanders, to become impregnated and sent into combat with their babies strapped to their backs. The mothers consider their children expendable because they themselves were expendable. Called “the martyr in his mother’s womb,” the fetus is dedicated to death even before his birth.  The cause of Islamic conquest is foremost, and the youths who do survive their horrific experiences are so severely scarred that they will suffer lifelong mental health problems. Despite the changes in war and engagement, the aggressor’s agenda is always expansionism, acquisition, domination, and elimination, and the disposable children are sent away for hijrah, jihad by emigration.

If war is the annihilation and replacement of one population by another, then America is experiencing a silent assault and eradication.  One method of societal reduction or eradication is the promotion of a woman’s right to abortion over the right of the child to live and prosper.  The child is mere material, to be used or discarded, as in Aldous Huxley’s Brave New World.

The schools are now devaluating sexual differences, first with language, replacing accepted pronouns with gender-neutral sounds and, second, with denying the child’s nature, in the interest of “complete equality.” Teaching staff are encouraging homosexuality, to emasculate the boys and erase the desire for courtship, marriage and reproduction, reinforced by Walt Disney films that encourage a “gay agenda.”  Family Research Council has just revealed that hours of instruction on evolving “sexual identity,” contraceptive drugs and devices, and consenting to sex, are taught in Fairfax County School. The appalling curriculum includes (1) gender fluidity: biological sex is meaningless, (2) embracing gender transitioning, (3) encouraging risky sex, (4) discontinuing abstinence education, (5) teaching use of all contraceptive devices without divulging health risks, (6) parents may not opt children out of 8th grade comprehensive dating lessons, and (7) stripping the word “clergy” from adult consultants.

Social engineering is another exploitation of children.  Groups, such as the Boy Scouts, established to prepare boys for manhood, independence, strength, creativity, adventure and daring, pride in country and the will to defend our country, are seeing drastic deviations.  In a “celebration of cultural exchange, mutual understanding, peace and friendship,” the 2019 World Scout Jamboree event will host thousands of attendees from more than 200 countries and territories and make condoms readily available.  For 108 years, the Boy Scouts of America’s flagship program has been known simply as the Boy Scouts.  With girls soon entering the ranks, the group says that iconic name will change to Scouts BSA next February, 2019.

America’s Common Core standards disrespect Biblical and Judeo-Christian values and substitute a whitewashed Islamic and Marxist ideological indoctrination. The storyline is equality of rules and regulations fed by academia, the caliphate, duma, or “Sorospolis” to a passive student body.  As in any fascistic system, information is controlled, and dissimilar publications banned.  The students are methodically poisoned, their morality shifted from general ethical principles, such as the Golden Rule, to strengthening the Leftist cause.

Because parents protested Common Core, Jeb Bush deceptively introduced his “personalized learning.” Better characterized as “depersonalized training,” it puts children on computer screens that track their thoughts and determine their futures, and features less interaction with teachers and fellow students, allowing for complete indoctrination. The American Psychological Association found increased stress and anxiety for teens (8.7%/2005, 11.5%/2014), due to more restrictive schooling and grading, and doubled suicide rate (tripled for girls).

Already employed in some schools is the deliberate dissuasion for children to bond and develop close and lasting friendships, thereby creating feelings of loneliness and isolation and rendering the children vulnerable to ideological brainwashing.  Researchers have said that music, usually a reflection of the times, has been getting sadder over the last 30 years.  The “maleness” of songs has also decreased.

The schools and media are promoting a false narrative of multiculturalism, when the goal should be multi-ethnicities, religions and races, living harmoniously under the host’s culture. Migrants to America should be seeking America’s peace and prosperity; to deny its existence is to deliberately propose her people’s destruction – ethnocide.  As such, the accusations of racism and colonization of “white-supremacist Europeans or Americans” prepare the groundwork for the annihilation of our heritage and language.  Islam has declared its purpose to replace our culture with theirs against a backdrop of hate spewed by progressive faculty, black activists, feminists, and pro-Muslim organizations that demonize Israel and Jews, Christians and America.  The children are the war materiel.

Universities are keeping their students ignorant, unskilled, and fearful of hearing opposition to the leftist agenda.  They offer protection from the outside world in safe spaces, cry closets and therapy animals.  Taught to fear self-reliance, the resultant adults will require government welfare programs, monthly stipends, and healthcare that includes heavy medication for cooperation.

It is time to connect the dots, because each of these instances has one thing in common, the abuse and destruction of children, which, in turn, removes future adults and decreases world population.  This silent war of annihilation is being waged by the United Nations; their UN 2030 Agenda describes their plan to control every nation, and the methods are already in operation.  While some believe this to be a desire for Utopia, others may relate it to guilt for Europe’s hand in World War II.  Whatever the motivation, the ruling class is creating an obedient underclass.  In point of fact, this is a fascist agenda of conquest, to stunt natural growth, and prohibit the use of our natural resources to nourish our survival.  The result will achieve what other tyrants have achieved with weapons and bloodshed – depopulation, except on a now much larger scale, using children.

The Globalists of the United Nations are dedicated to one world, unified under one flag or governing body, and the elimination of countries’ borders, sovereignty and of individual’s natural rights, and of that historic bulwark against the abuses of tyrants, the nuclear family, best attacked through the children. They seek complete freedom of migration worldwide to “increase liberty, reduce global poverty, and accelerate economic growth.”  However, where there is mobility of capital and labor, increases in capital cause decreased labor, resulting in disproportionately low wages, reduced healthcare and education, and shrinking businesses.  Unrestrained immigration brought us 14 million illegals by 2012.  It does not produce assimilation, but a higher incidence of crime and conflict from dissimilar ideologies and the depopulation objective of our silent warriors – our endangered children.

 

Euro & Varying Volatility


QUESTION: Hello Mr. Martin Armstrong. Why is it that if EURUSD goes down 20 – 30 pips other pairs with the EUR – such as the EURAUD or EURNZD go down 50 – 150 pips? Why such difference and volatility with these pairs?

JMF

ANSWER: The reason for this is simply that the US dollar is in a broader bull market. This is how the world monetary system collapses. A lower dollar devalues debt and everyone is fat and happy. You determine a trend by monitoring the performance of any market and observing it from a host of different perspectives. Each market is reflecting the differences in trends that are influenced by both domestic political trends and the local business cycle, as well as by the external influences from capital flows moving in or out of a country. Keep in mind that we have some countries that are PUNISHING foreign investors for daring to invest in their country. They are deliberating trying to prevent a rise in real estate and that sets in motion an economic decline domestically since it tends to reverse the capital flows altogether.

Knee-Jerk v Reactions v Trend Changes


QUESTION: Hi Martin
Was curious if you could address what Socrates has popped up on the last report….of a “Knee Jerk Low” this quarter. Is this a possibility that we should be on guard for?
A very thankful follower of your work!!
C

ANSWER: The terminology I have developed is unique and it comes from actually studying market behavior. I have explained that a “reaction” is limited to the time period of three or less be it a day, week, month, quarter, or year. Move beyond 3 years and you are changing trend. Keep in mind that when we are dealing with the higher level such as yearly, the percentage movement can be dramatic. But also the more dramatic the higher the probability that it will remain as a reaction. For example, the Dow Jones Industrial Index peaked in September 1929 at 386.10 and crashed going into July 1932 bottom at 40.56. That still qualified as a “reaction” being 3 years compared to the Nikkei which crashed but progressively moved lower into a bear market trend that bottomed in 19 years falling from 38957.44 to 6994.90.

The Knee-Jerk events can be highs or lows but are confined to one unit of time. They refect choppy markets. Here is Singapore share index. Note that there were three back-to-back Knee-Jerk events. This is what the Global Market Watch is forecasting. Not necessarily a change in trend, just a choppy move normally in the opposite direction.

Heather Mac Donald: How Diversity Bureaucrats Ruined the Universities


Published on Jan 7, 2018

Heather Lynn Mac Donald (born 1956) is an American political commentator, essayist, attorney and journalist. She is described as a secular conservative. She has advocated positions on numerous subjects including victimization, philanthropy, immigration reform and crime prevention. She is a Thomas W. Smith Fellow of the Manhattan Institute. In this clip, she talks about how diversity bureaucrats ruined the universities. Full clip, quoted under fair use: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YfRgv… (start of the series, this part is taken from part 4)

Tiananmen Square June 4, 1989 Protests & Massacre!


Frontlines Tiananmen Square 1989 Protest documentary from 1996.

Chinese troops storm through Tiananmen Square in the center of Beijing, killing and arresting thousands of pro-democracy protesters. The brutal Chinese government assault on the protesters shocked the West and brought denunciations and sanctions from the United States.

In May 1989, nearly a million Chinese, mostly young students, crowded into central Beijing to protest for greater democracy and call for the resignations of Chinese Communist Party leaders deemed too repressive. For nearly three weeks, the protesters kept up daily vigils, and marched and chanted. Western reporters captured much of the drama for television and newspaper audiences in the United States and Europe. On June 4, 1989, however, Chinese troops and security police stormed through Tiananmen Square, firing indiscriminately into the crowds of protesters. Turmoil ensued, as tens of thousands of the young students tried to escape the rampaging Chinese forces. Other protesters fought back, stoning the attacking troops and overturning and setting fire to military vehicles. Reporters and Western diplomats on the scene estimated that at least 300, and perhaps thousands, of the protesters had been killed and as many as 10,000 were arrested.

The savagery of the Chinese government’s attack shocked both its allies and Cold War enemies. Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev declared that he was saddened by the events in China. He said he hoped that the government would adopt his own domestic reform program and begin to democratize the Chinese political system. In the United States, editorialists and members of Congress denounced the Tiananmen Square massacre and pressed for President George Bush to punish the Chinese government. A little more than three weeks later, the U.S. Congress voted to impose economic sanctions against the People’s Republic of China in response to the brutal violation of human rights.

Catalonia Restores its Own Government


With the collapse of the head of Spain, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, and the change in hands of the state to the Socialist Pedro Sanchez, the Nationalists retook control of Catalonia’s regional government on Saturday. A new cabinet was sworn in ending just over seven months of direct rule from Madrid by Rajoy. The cabinet is now led by Quim Torra, who was a close aide to former Catalonia leader Carles Puigdemont, who the Germans arrested on behalf of Rajoy who wanted him imprisoned for life or outright dead on arrival. The new head of Spain, Pedro Sanchez, has stated he wants talks on Catalonia reversing the policies of Rajoy. However, he has stated that he opposes any independence referendum.

Making Sense of The Federal Reserve


 

I was given a lecture in Toronto to our institutional clients years ago and the central bank of Canada came with ten people. It was an interesting session because the audience began to ask me questions about what the central banks were looking at to make their decisions. I would answer and then the audience would immediately turn to see their response. It was a really fascinating session that turned me into this quasi-spokesperson for the central banks. I would respond and usually swat down these absurd theories one after another. The head of the Bank of Canada I knew well and the whole table was unbelievable poker-players. They never flinched nor did you get any read from any body language. When it was over, I went up to them and apologized saying I hoped I did not insult them in any way. They reply was astounding: “Marty, I only wish I could tell these fools we do not look at this stuff!”

People attribute the central banks will also sort of theories you would think they were the all-powerful demigods of finance. Decoding what a central bank says is very important. Yet I find all the commentary to be so off the mark it is laughable. The new word the Fed likes to use is its increasing reliance on “transitory” factors to explain the past six-year problem of being unable to reach the Fed’s 2% inflation target. They explain the failure with “transitory price changes” in some components such as health care and financial services. That was in their minutes from the May 1-2, 2018 meeting. When you look closely, price changes become “transitory” on the downside as well as “transitory” when they move on the upside. Indeed, they love to explain trends as “transitory” for that avoids any permanent trend forecast.

All of this is really just designed to be a distraction. It is the code word they love to explain the “IDK” factor (I don’t Know) because of the weakening business cycle. Step back and plot the growth rate using the Fed’s data since 1947. There was an economic boom between 1960 onward with the “feel good” election of JFK. That peaked in 1978 in nominal dollar terms because we moved to a floating exchange rate system in 1971. Then the dollar soared from 1980 when gold peaked into 1985 creating a massive wave of deflation. As two factors combined, the rise in the dollar and the rise in taxation under the Clintons/Obama, the growth rate has been progressively declining.

Trump sees the trend. His tariff policy is correct insofar as he is trying to address the decline in those areas. However, tariffs are one-sided. He looks at the loss of jobs yet ignores the rise in the standard of living by allowing the consumer to get the best price. If the workers in those areas cannot compete, then lower the taxes for the workers in those industries to enable competition. DO NOT force consumers to pay more for something to subsidize expensive labor. Nobody ever looks at that solution.

The Fed is clearly using code words like “normalize” interest rates BECAUSE they see the crisis brewing in pensions. They are BY NO MEANS raising interest rates because of inflation or expansion in the economy that risks a bubble. The Fed understands the crisis that has resulted from the manipulated low-interest rate policies. They cannot come out and explain the reason rates are rising because we have a pension crisis. So they have used the term “transitory” to explain both ups and downs and “normalize” to warn the marketplace it will continue to raise interest rates and pretend it is about some “transitory” factor you cannot nail down to a hardline explanation.

Secretary Pompeo Recognizes 29th Anniversary of Tiananmen Square Massacre…


Oh boy… subtle like a brick through a window.  Lest there be any debate remaining about the U.S. position toward China in the ongoing Dragon/Panda diplomatic dance, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo just delivered a message.

Against the jousting backdrop of Chinese influence over North Korea; and remembering that U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross is –right now– in Beijing discussing the future of U.S. and Chinese trade relations; and understanding that even mentioning the 1989 Tiananmen uprising/massacre is forbidden in China….. well:

On the 29th anniversary of the violent suppression of peaceful demonstrations in and around Tiananmen Square on June 4, 1989, we remember the tragic loss of innocent lives.

As Liu Xiaobo wrote in his 2010 Nobel Peace Prize speech, delivered in absentia, “the ghosts of June 4th have not yet been laid to rest.”

We join others in the international community in urging the Chinese government to make a full public accounting of those killed, detained or missing; to release those who have been jailed for striving to keep the memory of Tiananmen Square alive; and to end the continued harassment of demonstration participants and their families.

The United States views the protection of human rights as a fundamental duty of all countries, and we urge the Chinese government to respect the universal rights and fundamental freedoms of all citizens.  (link)

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Long time readers may note the importance of this anniversary; while technically the anniversary date is tomorrow, June 4th, I cannot help but see the State Department announcement today, while Secretary Ross is in Beijing, as a message directly targeted to the heart of Beijing.

Thank you Secretary Pompeo, and President Donald Trump

Never forget…

Never…