QUESTION:  Dear Mr. Armstrong,
reading your blog daily I am wondering how much and what exactly has to change in the peoples’ minds apart from the global changes that will manifest through all that is in alignment according to cycles that you have presented to the world. You are one of the few people, but there are also few people that read your blog, so there is still the masses. I am mean, there is a cycle to the collective consciousness for sure but also according to what you write about history it usually culminates in some riots and/or even revolution. If you have the time, would you enlighten us to how we “grow” from an active and conscious collective (individuals in a Society) into a complacent and disgruntled one?

The spark that wakes up the majority of people up is what I am curious about.

Many thanks!

ANSWER: Economics is always the spark. It would not be simply because I write this blog that the world will wake up. The readership is by no means that extensive. The issue is self-interest. A recent Gallup Poll stated that about 35% of the people believe that government is the problem. We stand on the threshold of when the money-class (institutional) are beginning to realize that the central banks are trapped and that they lack the power to manipulate the economy. That is the readership here. As they begin to move, that impacts other aspects of the economy and the average person will then respond out of their self-interest.

What comes first is the collapse of confidence in the money-class. As that shifts, then we see the markets respond and it will be the free markets that apply the pressure for the political changes ahead.

QUESTION:

I moved from calif. and bought a home in Nevada but I took a loan on the home instead
of paying it off.

My question should I pay off the house or invest the money.
With what is coming I am confused on this issue.
TM

ANSWER: If you have a FIXED mortgage, do not pay it off. If it is at an old high rate then you should refinance. Cash will be better served in liquid markets when the time comes, not tied up in a property that you may not be able to sell when banks stop issuing mortgages

QUESTION: Hello,
about your recent post ‘The Sum of All our Economic Fears’… i understand you will give some advices to investors how to trade difficult times that lie ahead in 2020 and beyond. What i wonder is what we, non investors but just ordinary people who does have only house or the apartment they live in and day job, what we should do and what we can expect regarding crisis that’s coming our way. (many non investors are reading your blog, just for the love of knowledge, i’m sure you are aware of that)
Thank you for your time.
MR

ANSWER: The basic level of Socrates is designed for the non-investor who needs a broader outlook rather than short-term buy and sell strategies. I fully intend to make sure that information is available for the general public. The NY bankers have always wanted to shut down our forecasting, for they want people to only listen to their forecasts which are always self-serving. I will make every effort to ensure that this forecasts of Socrates will be available to the general public because we need not opinion and hype, but objectivity.

QUESTION:  Dear Martin, am a loyal reader of your blog and many thanks to you for the education. Please, one brief but important question, which keeps me thinking hard these days. I remember your words, inflation should pick up in the next cycle. But, isn’t it the other way round? Isn’t deflation the next thing.

We see inflation everywhere, in all asset classes, home prices, and durable goods. But if the economy declines and the people have no longer so many funds to pay their debt interest rates hey go defensive. And if the stock market declines too, sentiment turns and people become even more defensive. Isn’t this the classic scenario of a deflation period?
Thanks from Europe
RS

ANSWER: I realize that on one hand, it may appear to be asset inflation in Europe, but you must look at the real numbers and then plot them in FOREX. We can see that when we look at the DAX in price, the bounce in US dollars has been less than in euros. In real terms, Europe has been in DEFLATIONbut capital has been shifting into the property market to escape the banking sector. It appears that the low in real terms for Europe may come in 2023. However, the type of inflation we see is cost-push, not demand. So you might call this STAGFLATION, as was the case during the 1970s following the OPEC crisis.

QUESTION: Socrates has been forecast that the free market rates are rising but the official central bank rates are still bearish overseas and neutral domestically. Is this the divergence you are forecast with respect to interest rates rising in the real world against the fake central bank rates?

Thank you

See you in Orlando

BF

ANSWER: Yes. I have also warned that the Fed is entertaining the prospect to PEGGING long-term government rates rather than engaging in Quantitative Easing. I have gone into this in detail in the new book about to be released soon. The Fed realizes that Quantitative Easing has failed. They are lobbying behind the curtain to try to get Congress on the side with sharing the burden to support the economy. However, that effort is not being received very well.

You must understand that there is a HUGE gap between real rates and fake rates unfolding. Call your bank and ask them what they will give you for a CD for say even 1 year. You will be lucky to get 2.5%. A car loan will be 4.71% to 5.26% on average. Banks are nearly doubling their money and this is the real-world compared to the fake rates offered by central banks. This is the HUGE gap between real-world and central banks which is expanding. So a forecast of lower rates ONLY applies to the fake rate – not the real-world rates.

Our forecast shows that real-world rates will rise, but the fake central bank rates will remain the same to lower ONLY because the central banks are becoming nearly exclusive buyers of government debt with the exception of pension funds which MUST buy government debt by law.

I am seeing an overseas crisis is brewing which many might rename the “Lehman Moment” to something more up to date. Clearly, the stakes are far higher to the world economy than anyone may truly appreciate. We are cascading toward a perfect financial storm. However, this particular storm is exacerbated by the politics of Europe stemming from the structural design of the Euro.  There is a major risk to both the European and world economy. All the Quantitative Easing by Draghi at the European Central Bank (ECB) has completely failed and in the process created a  systemic risk to the entire world economy – not just the EU. This is why the Federal Reserve (Fed) has lowered interest rates when there was no true justification for the interest rate reduction domestically. The Fed has confirmed that it is indeed the central bank to the world even if it does not like that role. It can no longer place domestic policy objectives over international.

I am rushing to put out a special report on the next “Lehman Moment” for this is going to be extremely critical.

When the GAO report came out on the Quantitative Easing by the Federal Reserve, it uncovered a secret $16 trillion feeding tube from the Fed structured as revolving, low-cost loans to any bank (foreign or domestic) teetering on the edge. Amazingly, the audit showed the Fed started the loans in December 2007 – long before the public knew there was a dangerous financial crisis – and it lasted until at least July 2010.

In addition to the publicly known support to Bear Stearns from the New York Fed, the GAO audit revealed that the Federal Reserve provided another $853 billion in secret loans to Bear Stearns; $851 billion from its Primary Dealer Credit Facility and $2 billion from its Term Securities Lending Facility. It wasn’t until May 31, 2008, when JPMorgan Chase closed its deal with Bear Stearns. However, the GAO reported that Bear Stearns “was consistently the largest PDCF borrower until June 2008.” The Fed shows that Bear Stearns continued to receive funds until June 23, 2008.

Then by April 2010, that is when Greece had to ask the IMF for a bailout. What is amazing is how no banker was ever charged for the toxic financial waste they created while trading against their own clients.