QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I know my friend sent an email to you and is finally listening only after racking up losses. I explained how I followed you since 2015 and bought the Dow back at the end of 2015. I made almost 10,000 points and paid off my house. My family toasts you every Thanksgiving around the table. I know you warned that April could make a new low in the Dow and the first half of this year would be a period of consolidation. The rally into March made new highs in the Nasdaq but the Dow failed. You have taught me to just follow the numbers and I appreciate your comments trying to explain events as they unfold. The Global Market Watch was fantastic. On the yearly level it said potential major high in January and then it flipped back and now says new highs remain possible. To watch how that sifts on the yearly level has been a tremendous indicator in itself. That gave me the confidence to sell the close of January. My question is simple. Do you see this as a major buying opportunity? How long should I keep the powder dry?
Thank you
SJ
ANSWER: This is a consolidation period and it will be difficult to guess where the market will go from one day to the next. Yes, the Global Market Watch has been fluctuating on the yearly level on the Dow and that is a reflection each day what the future would look like assuming that was the end of the year. It did by itself state potential major high and that confirmed the correction into February. Now it is saying new highs are possible which is reflecting that we are indeed in a consolidation mode.
This will provide a major buying opportunity. We needed this pause in trend to shift the majority back to bears. When the market rallies and breaks out again, they will fight it as they have all the way up. The biggest losers have been the asset allocation followers. They assume they cannot forecast the future so they spread their assets hoping that the traditional 60% equities will make up for the losses on the 40% bonds. That will bankrupt most people on this next move. It has failed to save pension funds.
Just remember. You MUST be disciplined. The hardest part of successful investing is to remove your emotions as much as possible from the decision process. This is why the decision must be on the NUMBERS and not even what I have to say. Nobody can forecast a market from a gut perspective. If they are looking for someone to be a guru, then kiss your portfolio goodbye right now.
I will be doing video updates for those who purchased the 2018 Share Market Report. We will be holding a WEC in Singapore in June. We will be opening up both Singapore and Orlando for general ticket sales shortly. Prior attendees get first dibs. We will be covering all of Asia in Singapore and the world in general. Orlando will be focused on Europe and North America with also a general overview of the world. That will be held after the 2018 US elections.
So follow the Reversals and the Timing. They will tell us when to ac
CTH takes a little flak for pointing out the obvious; that’s ok, it doesn’t change the reality: When you confront the manipulated multinational trade system – the multinational Wall Street entities who have historically benefited from that system will lose.
It is impossible for Wall Street corporations invested overseas not to lose some financial position. This is reality, and this is also necessary. Meanwhile U.S-centered corporations will gain valuation in direct proportion to the amount of investment they hold inside the U.S…
White House Trade Director Peter Navarro discusses the ongoing trade initiatives, China, Wall Street and NAFTA. President Trump has indicated a strong preference for U.S.T.R. Lighthizer to make a determination about NAFTA as soon as possible. WATCH:
If the news from the first round of Mexican election polling was any better we’d have to be twins to enjoy it. Andres Obrado, a well-known Marxist who intends a government take-over of the Mexican energy sector, is holding a commanding 18-point lead.
This is excellent news for border wall enthusiasts and those who want the Trump administration to pull out of NAFTA.
Mr Obrador is the modern Mexican version of Hugo Chávez (or Nicolàs Maduro/Bernie Sanders) with a similar ideological outlook. His resulting territorial economic policies are certain to deliver the Venezuela outcome to the Mexican people.
For American companies doing business in Mexico, an Obrador win would be the worst possible outcome. They will lose hundreds of billions from their current Mexican investments, as President Obrador swoops in to skim (tax) corporate profits for his state-run enterprises and care for ‘his people’. However, the good news is – those U.S. multinationals will likely all return to the U.S. asap. Lucky day, lucky day.
Funnily enough, U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross must have held some insider information about this likelihood when he sheepishly hinted toward this possibility a few weeks ago. Oh, the poor multinational critters in Wall Street are gonna have a heart attack when they see this. Wait, wha… they did already?
MONTERREY (Reuters) – Mexican left-wing presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has an 18-point lead ahead of the July 1 election, according to a poll published on Monday that showed him with a growing advantage at the start of formal campaigning.
Lopez Obrador, who launched his campaign on Sunday, holds 38 percent of the vote, according to the poll by Parametria, published by Reuters on Monday ahead of wider distribution. That compared to 35 percent in its previous poll.
A Lopez Obrador victory could usher in a Mexican government less accommodating toward the United States, where President Donald Trump has stoked trade tensions with Mexico and aggressively moved to curb immigration.
Lopez Obrador has backed the North American Free Trade Agreement, but his plan to review newly issued oil contracts sparked worries he will deter foreign investment. (read more)
Too funny… The “smart set” (pundits) are reading it wrong:
In retaliation for $50 billion in U.S. trade tariffs against Chinese imports, China laughably hits back with $3 their own billion tariffs against the U.S. According to most reporting Beijing has selected U.S. pork and scrap aluminum as targets for a 25% tariff, along with wine and fruit tariffs around 15%.
It should be emphasized the approach by China is rather ridiculous considering the Chinese government purchased the largest U.S. pork manufacturer Smithfield in 2013 for $5 billion; at the time the purchase price was 30% more than the company was worth. Smithfield, now a Chinese company, represents 25% of all U.S. pork products.
Do you really think China is going to not import it’s own pork products… or subject them to a domestic tax? Think about it. It’s ridiculous. China knows they have ZERO leverage in a trade-dispute with the U.S., they cannot afford to lose access to the U.S. market.
The example of Smithfield foods is exactly what we have outlined in how China cannot sustain itself and needs to control the assets of foreign countries. Hence, their one-road/one-belt program for securing products and raw materials. China is a dependent economy, they need to exploit global trade to survive. China cannot feed itself. This is the inherent flaw within their short-sighted authoritarian government-controlled economic model.
Again, for emphasis, the Chinese government underwrote the purchase of Smithfield foods in 2013. They paid 30% more than the company was worth because they were securing access to food just like they would any other raw material (uranium, minerals, etc). China also purchases U.S. politicians to retain their ability in this regard.
Now look at the cartoon from the unofficial Chinese state-run media today:
[…] China’s latest countermeasures target fruit, pork and other US goods totaling some $3 billion, the equivalent of China’s losses caused by US tariffs. The list indicates China will never compromise and will always retaliate against unreasonable tariffs.
For every single move against Chinese interests, the US can expect retaliation. It is time for Washington to bid farewell to the delusional, make-believe world whereby it imagines China an unresponsive, over-tolerant nation.
China does not want a trade war, but it will not retreat should one emerge. Monday’s announcement is hardly a subtle hint. China will show its strength through action.
Recent White House statements have revealed a tough stance on Sino-US trade disparities while some have even shown a level of optimism at resolving trade conflicts through negotiation. But it is not hard to realize that such self-contradictory behavior reveals that the US knows its actions are unjustifiable. China’s attitude toward a trade conflict has been consistent and Beijing will carefully handle all challenges from the US.
There are always a few Western politicians who think China might step back and concede. But they are wrong. The Chinese government only cares about what is in the best interest of its people rather than elections.
Washington must be reasonable dealing with China. Threats will fail as China is not afraid of the US, plus the Chinese have zero tolerance for political weakness. (read more)
Nuance and subtlety is everything in China. Culturally harsh tones are seen as a sign of weakness and considered intensely impolite in public displays between officials; especially within approved and released statements by officials representing the government.
There is no doubt in my mind that President Trump has a very well thought out long-term strategy regarding China. President Trump takes strategic messaging toward the people of china very importantly. President Trump has, very publicly, complimented the friendship he feels toward President Xi Jinping; and praises Chairman Xi for his character, strength and purposeful leadership.
To build upon that projected and strategic message – President Trump seeded the background by appointing Ambassador Terry Branstad, a 30-year personal friend of President Xi Jinping.
To enhance and amplify the message – and broadcast cultural respect – U.S. President Trump used Mar-a-Lago as the venue for their visit, not the White House. And President Trump’s beautiful granddaughter, Arabella, sweetly serenaded the Chinese First Family twice in Mandarin Chinese song showing the utmost respect for the guests and later for the hosts.
Why the constant warm messaging?
What is the purpose?
What does all this have to do with a trade confrontation?
Historic Chinese geopolitical policy, vis-a-vis their totalitarian control over political sentiment (action) and diplomacy through silence, is evident in the strategic use of the space between carefully chosen words, not just the words themselves.
Each time China takes aggressive action (red dragon) China projects a panda face through silence and non-response to opinion of that action;…. and the action continues. The red dragon has a tendency to say one necessary thing publicly, while manipulating another necessary thing privately. The Art of War.
President Trump is the first U.S. President to understand how the red dragon hides behind the panda mask.
It is specifically because he understands that Panda is a mask that President Trump messages warmth toward the Chinese people, and pours vociferous praise upon Xi Jinping, while simultaneously confronting the geopolitical doctrine of the Xi regime.
In essence Trump is mirroring the behavior of China while confronting their economic duplicity.
China has no cultural or political space between peace and war; they are a historic nation based on two points of polarity. They see peace and war as coexisting with each other.
China accepts and believes opposite or contrary forces may actually be complementary, interconnected, and interdependent in the natural world, and they may give rise to each other as they interrelate to one another. Flowing between these polar states is a natural dynamic to be used -with serious contemplation- in advancing objectives as needed.
Peace or war. Win or lose. Yin and Yang. Culturally there is no middle position in dealings with China; they are not constitutionally capable of understanding or valuing the western philosophy of mutual benefit where concession of terms gains a larger outcome. If it does not benefit China, it is not done. The outlook is simply, a polarity of peace or war. In politics or economics the same perspective is true. It is a zero-sum outlook.
Therefore, when you see China publicly use strong language – it indicates a level of internal disposition beyond the defined western angst. Big Panda becomes Red Dragon; there is no mid-status or evolutionary phase. Every American associated with investment, economics and China would be well advised to put their business affairs in order accordingly.
President Trump will not back down from his position; the U.S. holds all of the leverage and the issue must be addressed. President Trump has waiting three decades for this moment. This President and his team are entirely prepared for this.
We are finally confronting the geopolitical Red Dragon, China!
The Olive branch and arrows denote the power of peace and war. The symbol in any figure’s right hand has more significance than one in its left hand. Also important is the direction faced by the symbols central figure. The emphasis on the eagles stare signifies the preferred disposition. An eagle holding an arrow also symbolizes the war for freedom, and its use is commonly referred to the liberation fight of righteous people from abusive influence. The eagle on the original seal created for the Office of the President showed the gaze upon the arrows.
The Eagle and the Arrow – An Aesop’s Fable
An Eagle was soaring through the air. Suddenly it heard the whizz of an Arrow, and felt the dart pierce its breast. Slowly it fluttered down to earth. Its lifeblood pouring out. Looking at the Arrow with which it had been shot, the Eagle realized that the deadly shaft had been feathered with one of its own plumes.
Moral:We often give our enemies the means for our own destruction.
RELATED:
Leverage… We have it, China doesn’t.
China is no longer hiding their alignment with their proxy province of North Korea. Meanwhile President Trump has cultivated a very close relationship with Shinzo Abe of Japan, and to a lesser extent Prime Minister Modi of India.
Two teams preparing for the economic conflict:
China/North-Korea/Russia and Pakistan.
-VS-
U.S./South-Korea/Japan and India.
.
That’s the big picture. The rest is chaff and countermeasures.
By now most have become aware of the story of thousands of people from Central America, mostly Honduras, walking toward the U.S. border where they intend to gain entry into the U.S. legally or illegally.
Transparently, against mid-term elections (U.S. and Mexico), and contrast against the backdrop of Mexico’s opposition toward the Trump administration vis-a-vis NAFTA, the People Without Borders march is one big left-wing political ploy with multiple benefactors, organizers and political groups positioning for maximum ideological benefit. Do not discount the U.S. Chamber of Commerce multinational financial alignment within this endeavor.
(Via Daily Mail) – An army of a thousand migrants from Central America are marching through Mexico to the US where they hope to get in by any means – legal or not.
The massive flood of migrants hail mostly from Honduras, where the country has become rife with gang violence and political unrest.
The journey began on Sunday March 25 when 1,200 men, women and children gathered together to cross immigration checkpoints with a organization called Pueblos Sin Fronteras, meaning People Without Borders, according to BuzzFeed News.
And the number is only growing as migrants walk to the border in 90-degree heat, sleep on the floor of town plazas, and get by on charity meals by locals and churches.
So far no one in Mexico has tried to stop them. (read more)
For a non-politician, President Trump is a very politically smart guy. He knows exactly what the intentions are from within this well organized event. The Democrats dropped their DACA and Immigration Reform demands several months ago, because the top tier of their activist operations were executing this plan.
“Open Borders” is a UniParty aligned issue. The professional political leadership within the Republican and Democrat political DC operations are aligned in common cause on this issue. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, funded by massive money from multinationals, have paid hundreds of millions to both parties for full control over immigration legislation.
I’m certain that in the next several days we will see a multitude of wide-ranging outcomes from this Central American “Open Border” operation. Do not doubt the severity of this group’s ability to manipulate the American electorate. It was only a few short years ago when NRA spokeswoman Dana Loesch and well known radio pundit Glenn Beck were sending signals to the South American marchers to come forth to America.
Look up “Soccerballs and Teddy Bears” for an understanding of how the Ted Cruz coalition supports open borders and illegal alien border crossers. It’s a Red Pill most cannot digest. –SEE HERE– How many NRA members know their spokesperson is an advocate for illegal alien border entry?
In preparation for what’s to come, here’s a timeline of connected activity. None of this is random.
April 2009 – After a Mid-East trip to Egypt to deliver his Cairo speech, President Barack Obama travels to South America for the “Summit of the Americas“. The summit included thirty-four South American countries. Obama wanted to promote his point that relations in North and South America can be heavily improved, especially after age old ideals on immigration and commerce are dropped. Hugo Chavez warmly embraced Obama and provided a gift, a book titled “The Open Veins of Latin America“. (link)
December 2009 – November 2010 – 100% of all political effort was leveraged to create and institute the ACA or ObamaCare. All media oxygen is focused on ObamaCare 24/7.
November 2010 – President Obama is “shellacked” in Mid-Term elections. Loses control of the House of Representatives to Republicans. Biggest electoral defeat since 1918.
January 2011 – Emphasis, and political strategy changes. “Comprehensive Immigration Reform“, ie. “amnesty” becomes the mainstay approach toward retention of political power. Throughout a contentious Republican primary season, to assist their ideological traveler, the U.S. media kept the issue on the front burner.
November 2012 – Election year campaign(s). Using wedge issues like “War on Women”, and “Immigration / Amnesty”, candidate Obama promises to push congress for “amnesty”, under the guise of “Comprehensive Immigration Reform”, if elected. President Obama wins reelection.
December 2012 – Immediately following reelection President Barack Obama signs an Executive Order creating the “Deferred Action Program”, or DACA. Allowing millions of illegal aliens to avoid deportation. (link)
May 2013 – President Barack Obama visits South America. Following a speech Mexican entrepreneurs, Obama then travelled to Costa Rica, his first visit as president. In addition to meetings with Costa Rican President Laura Chincilla, Obama attended a gathering of leaders from the Central American Integration System, (CAIS). The regional network includes the leaders of Belize, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama. (link) President Obama meets with the leaders of the Central American Countries.
Summer 2013 – Numbers of Illegal Unaccompanied Minors reaching the Southern U.S. border from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua doubles. 20,000+ reach U.S. Southern border by traveling through Mexico. Media primarily ignores. (link)
October 2013 – At the conclusion of the immigrant travel season. White House receives notification that tens of thousands of illegal Unaccompanied Minors should be anticipated to hit the Southern U.S. border the following Summer [2014]. An estimated 850% increase in the number of UAC’s (from 2012’s less than 10,000) was projected. (link)
January 2014 – In response to the projections, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) posts a jobs notification seeking bids to facilitate 65,000 Unaccompanied Alien Children. The posting outlines DHS and Health and Human Services (HHS) requirements for contractors to fulfill the job. (link)
February 2014 – President Obama visits Mexico for “bilateral talks”, in an unusual one day visit (link):
Spring 2014 – With a full year of successful transport and border crossing without deportation – DHS begins to notice a significant uptick in the number of criminal elements from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua; which have joined with the UAC’s to gain entry. Internal DHS documents reveal the “refugee” status is now being used by both criminal cartels, and potentially by Central American government(s) to send prison inmates into the U.S. (link)
June 2014 – As expected tens of thousands of Unaccompanied Alien Children from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua hit the border and the headlines. Despite the known planning, and recently discovered prior internal notifications, the White House claims it did not see this coming. By July the media have picked up the story and it’s called “A Border Crisis”. However, the White House is desperate to avoid exposure to the known criminal elements within the story. (link)
July 2014 – President Obama requests $3,700,000,000 ($3.7 billion) in supplemental budget appropriations to deal with the border crisis. Only $109 million is for actual border security or efforts to stop the outflow from El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Growing concern amid Democrats brings out a defense position that George Bush created the crisis in 2008.
Hidden inside a massive budget request is President Obama seeking legal authorization to spend taxpayer funds for lawyers and legal proceedings on behalf of the UAC’s and their families. In essence congress is being asked to approve the executive branch’s violation of previous immigration law. Section 292 of the Immigration and Nationality Act prohibits representation of aliens “in immigration proceedings at government expense“.
It becomes increasingly obvious the spending request is to facilitate President Obama in expanding the services toward ALL illegal immigrants throughout the U.S.
The stealth nature of the request is brilliant. Once the funds are established and appropriated the administration can then use millions of taxpayer funds to essentially integrate not only the UAC’s but any illegal alien currently within the system.
The $3.7 Billion becomes the amnesty program Obama has sought but been blocked from achieving.
July 9th 2014 – Fearful that U.S. political interests might bring a halt to the outflow already in place, and/or actually result in a backlog of traveling migrants stuck at the border inside Mexico:…
…Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto and Guatemalan president Otto Perez Molina held a joint press conference in Playas de Catazaja, Mexico, to officially announce an agreement to make it easier for those making the illegal journey to the United States from Central America, to cross into Mexico.
The Southern Border Program to Improve Passage, will provide for more border checkpoints along Mexico’s border with Guatemala, and offer more protection and even emergency medical care to those making their way north. The illegal aliens will receive a so-called Regional Visitor’s Card, according to El Universal. (link)
July 10th, 2014 – Facing pushback from congress as well as sticker shock at the amount he is requesting, President Obama sends his DHS team to Capitol Hill to ramp up anxiety, and threats of consequences:
Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson said Thursday that as many as 90,000 unaccompanied child migrants could cross the southwest border before the end of this fiscal year in September.
That will place a huge strain on immigration agencies, which will badly need new money to get through the summer, Johnson says.
The 90,000 number — the highest yet given by the administration — is spelled out in written Senate testimony by Johnson as well as Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Mathews Burwell, who must also deal with the border crisis.
“We are preparing for a scenario in which the number of unaccompanied children apprehended at the border could reach up to 90,000 by the end of fiscal 2014,” Johnson’s testimony reads, and he bluntly warns that without an infusion of new funds, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) will run out of money in August. (read more)
It would have been more direct and honest if DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson were to say: ‘pay us this extortion money or we’ll use our pulpit to call you haters, racists and bigots amid all the news broadcasts – and we’ll be joined by the likes of Glenn Beck to proclaim how insufferable and hateful you are for not caring about the children’.
….. the poor children.
yes, ….. the poor children.
Glenn Beck, Ted Cruz and Dana Loesch Supporting in 2014SEE HERE
QUESTION: Message: Hi, huge respect for your eye-opening work. You mention that war is more likely to erupt in the middle east than Korea. Since middle east seems to be in a state of perpetual combat in different areas, do you think war could expand as Turkey is more & more openly hostile to Greece? The average Greek is no longer considering if it happens, more like when it will happen. Does Socrates provide a forecast on this?
Regards,
S, Athens.
ANSWER: Actually, the primary target for a peak in any Greco-Turkish war will arrive in 2022. What we must understand is we have a major convergence between the Cycle of War and the Economic Confidence Model (ECM). What this means is the increased risk of geopolitical tensions are enhanced by economic downturns. This is what I have been warning about with the collapse of Socialism. As the endless promises of governments crumble to dust, politicians are faced with (1) the overthrow of their governments, or (2) create an external enemy to shift the blame from themselves. Therefore, as the economy turns down, interest rates will invert and rise when people no longer trust a government, and the fabric of the political-economy will be torn apart at the seams. This is historically the most dangerous point for at that moment, the government will turn to create external enemies.
When communism fell in 1989, the military establishment was no longer really needed. They needed to create external enemies to justify maintaining their position, status, and funding. Therefore, Russia continued to be the enemy of the USA simply because they needed one. When I would ask WHY was Russia our enemy if they were no longer Communist, the reply was dumbfounding: “Well they are Russian!” Even Ukraine was a power-play. The Eastern part of the country was ethnically Russian. The country should have simply been split north to south down the language border. Crimea was always a strategic port of Russia. If Japan told America to get out of Okinawa, the US response would be no different than Russia’s – America would occupy Okinawa. So why put sanctions on Russia for doing what the Americans or British have always done throughout history? The answer was just the military establishment needs an enemy – not peace. World peace means they are out of a job. They like those gold stars on their shoulders.
Therefore, as we head down into the economic abyss, the political necessity for war will be on the rise. Ergodan needs an external enemy. He is desperate for war and it will take two fronts – Kurds and the Greeks. He can easily stir the old pot of hate to retain power. This is what any politician does. Even Hillary during the election, as well as all the Democrats, stir the economic pot of class warfare to divide the nation just to get power. They also need that hatred of people who have more to win power. The people cheer and will one day storm the houses of the rich and will set them ablaze or drag them out and hang them. This is traditional and it is one primary reason class warfare is highly dangerous and undermines the foundation of any state. So this is what we face. Look at everything in that context and you will begin to see the conflicts deliberately created by the political class to retain power in ALL societies.
The first modern Greco-Turkish War following the fall of the Ottoman Empire is called the Thirty Days’ War, which took place against a rising Greek concern over conditions in Crete. This centered on the Turkish domination and where relations between the Christians and their Muslim rulers had been deteriorating rapidly. 1896 saw a rebellion on Crete instigated to a large extent by the secret Greek nationalistic society called Ethniki Etairia. They sought to fuel the historic resentment between the Christians and Muslims and they sought to create an opportunity to annex the island for the Greeks. Therefore, by the beginning of 1897, Greece sent arms to Crete to support a rebellion and revolution. On January 21, 1897, the Greek fleet was mobilized and in February Greek troops actually landed on the island proclaiming the annexation of Crete to Greece. The following month, the European powers imposed a blockade upon Greece to stop the arms shipments. The European powers feared that the whole of the Balkans would see vengeance upon the Turks.
The Greeks sent a force to launch an attack on the Turks in Thessaly (April). By the end of April, Greeks were overwhelmed by the Turkish army. The Greeks yielded to pressure from the European powers and withdrew their troops from Crete accepting an armistice on the mainland on May 20th, 1897. On December 4, 1897, a treaty was signed compelling Greece to pay the Turks an indemnity, to accept an international financial commission that would control Greek finances, and to yield some territory in Thessaly back to Turkey. Subsequently, the Turkish troops also left Crete, which had been made an international protectorate in 1898. Crete was finally ceded to Greece by the Treaty of London (1913), which ended the First Balkan War.
The second Greco-Turkish War occurred after World War I, when the Greeks attempted to extend their territory beyond eastern Thrace and the district of Smyrna. These territories had been given to Greece by the Treaty of Sèvres, August 10th, 1920. In January 1921 the Greek army launched an offensive in Anatolia against the nationalist Turks, who had defied the Ottoman government and would not recognize its treaty. In Greece, the war was followed by a successful military coup against the monarchy.
The Treaty of Lausanne concluded on July 24th, 1923, obliged Greece to return eastern Thrace and the islands of Imbros and Tenedos to Turkey, as well as to give up its claim to Smyrna. The two belligerents also agreed to exchange their Greek and Turkish minority populations. To this day, Turkey retains designs on regions it yielded to Greece.
As the economy and hyperinflation continue in Turkey, the government desperately needs an external enemy. So yes. The tensions will continue to rise and this is seen as inevitable in Athens and the resentment goes back to the Persian invasion of Greece in ancient times. Even the culture of the Minoans were the origins of the Greeks. Anatolia was all Greek cities that filled modern Turkey. The fall of Constantinople in 1453 was the invasion of the Turks who were Muslim. So the traditional ethnic origin was Greek and the language of the Eastern Roman Empire ruled from Constantinople was Greek – not Latin.
The last Emperor, Constantine XI (1448-1453), died in battle fighting the Turkish invasion. Beware November 2018. Things seem to begin picking up about then.
QUESTION: Interesting that $1.3T US spending bill was enacted on March 23, 2018, exactly 31.459 years after passage of US Tax Reform Act of 1986:
Also, the 86 year cycle in drought conditions in the midwest US seems to approach – is this why Marty thinks wheat will bottom this year?
The below Wikipedia link mentions a “short drought” in 1890 in the US Great Plains, and then a dust storm on November 11, 1933, in South Dakota (43 years later). Wikipedia also mentions that the US Great Plains entered an unusually dry era in the summer of 1930 (a little more than 86 years ago), with droughts coming in 1934, 1936 and 1939-1940.
I wonder if this is the year to go long wheat, especially since Marty forecast a bottom for this year?
Best,
J
ANSWER: Here is a chart of Wheat from 1259 to 2017 with the currency converted to dollars from British pounds using the conversion rate at the beginning of the US dollar extending it back in time. Here we can see the overall trend. Yes, there is an influence with respect to weather. However, the Dust Bowl was a local event.
What our computer is warning about begins next year with a Directional Change in Wheat. This cycle appears to be impacted by (1) significant climate change, and (2) the War Cycle. The combination of both is pointing to a bull market in nominal dollar terms.
I recently did an interview and was asked about the Federal Reserve. There is so much absolute nonsense sophistry that circulates where people think that ending the central bank will somehow cure everything. I really just laid it out plain and simple. The Fed’s balance sheet is a tiny fraction of the economy or the real money supply. Everyone blames the Fed for everything and they NEVER bother to look at (1) the fiscal policy of Congress, and (2) the banking system as a whole.
Even if you want to scream from the top of every hill that $4 trillion worth of Fed’s Quantitative Easing was pure evil and should have created hyperinflation (which it did not), the deficits created by Obama topped $1 trillion per year and those never die whereas the Fed’s QE evaporates as they do let the debt they bought mature and expire without rebuying it again, whereas Draghi and the ECB have conceded they will reinvest their holdings. Look at 2009-2012. Obama created $5.4 trillion that will never expire but will be rolled until there are no more buyers.
So let’s do the math. The entire Federal Reserve QE program was equal to 1/5th of the national debt. The ECB bought 40% of all public debt and the Bank of Japan bought 75% of new debt coming to the market. Yet all we get is dollar bashing and people actually have called the yen the safe-haven play. I really do not know if I am arguing is drunks, people with dementia, or just con-artists. All these people pushing the end of central banks because they are clueless about how the real world functions.
I have been trying to explain to the world that monetary policy using interest rates to impact the balance of payments is really voodo economics. The Australian even wrote an article back in 1989 about the advice I was given to governments. No matter how long I have been at this, trying to overcoming manipulating interest rates to try to control the economy is just totally insane. It reminds me of the skit in Blazing Saddles where the Black guy puts a gun to his own head and say if anybody moves, the black guy gets it. How can a central bank raise interest rates to fight inflation when the government is the biggest borrower in the system? The government deficits will rise because their interest expenditure will rise perpetually because they continuously roll their national debts and never pay anything off. The central banks have lost all control and the press is just too stupid to even understand the problem.
The Australian wrote about our recommendation: “He firmly believes the worldwide obsession with monetary policy, namely the use of interest rates to regulate inflation and demand, is misguided, and in a recent circular to clients described it as “voodoo” economics.”
We are hopelessly lost and the idiots who bash the Fed are doing so much harm to society it is not even funny. The bulk of the real world money supply is created by lending on a leveraged basis. It is not money created by the Fed and it goes well beyond that even created by the Congress.
AT the end of 2017, total household debt exceeded $13 trillion. Total non-financial business debt stood at $6.1 trillion at the end of 2017. The Fed’s balance sheet was $4.4 trillion of which $2.4 is US Treasuries. The national debt stood at $20.5 trillion at the end of 2017. If we look at this perspective, that means the money supply is $41.6 trillion just using the debt. If we then add M2 (all accounts _ money market accounts) which stood at $13.8 trillion at the end of 2017, this brings us to a liquid money supply of $55.4 trillion. The Fed’s balance sheet does not even reach 10% of that figure. Now let us add the stock market, which is liquid. That reached $30 trillion by the end of 2017. Therefore, the liquid assets/cash position stood at $85.4 trillion at the end of 2017. Now let us add total personal real estate (homes) in the United States which stood at $31.8 trillion. If we include illiquid real estate, now we are up to $117.2 trillion. So how will shutting down the Fed and theoretically eliminate $4.4 trillion solve all the problems?
Jumping ju-ju bones… THIS is stunning. Luke Rosiak is the subject matter expert when it comes to the Awan Brothers scandal and the use of Pakistani nationals for Information Technology assistance by Democrats on the House Intelligence Committee. His latest report is incredible.
Apparently the 44 House Democrats who used the services of the Pakistani IT unit, hired them and exempted them from background checks. It should be noted these IT employees worked with some of the most sensitive national security secrets.
DAILY CALLER – Every one of the 44 House Democrats who hired Pakistan-born IT aides who later allegedly made “unauthorized access” to congressional data appears to have chosen to exempt them from background checks, according to congressional documents.
All of them appear to have waived background checks on Imran Awan and his family members, even though the family of server administrators could collectively read all the emails and files of 1 in 5 House Democrats, and despite background checks being recommended for such positions, according to an inspector general’s report. The House security policy requires offices to fill out a form attesting that they’ve initiated background checks, but it also includes a loophole allowing them to simply say that another member vouched for them. (read more)
CTH was sent this link to a radio broadcast from last Friday March 30th. The content is, well, more than a little funny.
Apparently Dan Bongino filled in for Mark Levin during a radio broadcast last Friday and attempted to share his conclusions from the latest news headlines of Jeff Sessions. The topic was news of AG Sessions publicizing his prior appointment of a federal prosecutor, and the ongoing investigation into the FBI and DOJ by Inspector General Horowitz and the prosecutor, John Huber . The outline of Bongino’s position will be familiar to you.
However, after months of hearing Mark Levin and Sean Hannity criticizing Jeff Sessions, the Levin/Hannity audience was having none of it. Anything that runs counter to the SDS narrative is not real. It’s hilarious. Sessions bad… the world is ending… we don’t need no alternate facts here… we deal in outrage only… Muh Mueller… Seriously, it’s funny.
The first 30+/- minutes is Bongino laying out his analysis. It appears that Bongino has reached many of the same conclusions we did. At 31:45 the first caller goes bananas…. it goes downhill from there.
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After listening to the callers refusing the red-pill, I’m left wondering what Hannity and Levin will do when the reality of the Sessions, Horowitz and Huber approach surfaces on CNN? How long will radio hosts wait before dropping the outrage against Sessions?
There has been a great deal of consternation directed toward AG Jeff Sessions surrounding the ongoing FISA abuse scandal and the larger issues of unlawful DOJ and FBI conduct in their political investigation of candidate Donald Trump. It is obviously a matter of great division.
However, it is important anyone interested in the FBI and DOJ investigation take the time to digest the details within Attorney General Jeff Sessions notification letter to congress outlining his previous appointment of U.S Attorney John Huber to parallel Inspector General Michael Horowitz as a prosecutor.
Do not trust the pundit filtration of content, take the time to read it yourself.
Absorbing the DOJ has a long-standing criminal investigation will likely create anxiety for those committed to an irrational intolerance of Attorney General Jeff Sessions; but the substance remains evident regardless of sentiment.
The Bigger Picture – If we accept the historic context for DOJ official communication stemming from the IG investigation, it would appear the notification letter is timed with the conclusion of investigative evidence collection. As such, the timing is safe for the DOJ to reveal the name of the prosecutor many previously refused to believe existed.
There was already an appointed person, a prosecutor, from “outside of Washington”, in place prior to the recent request for a Special Counsel by Goodlatte and Gowdy. That was exactly what an objective analysis of the events previously outlined – and we previously noted.
Attorney Jeff Sessions previously outlined the existence of an outside prosecutor who has been in place for quite a while, exactly as we thought. All the evidence of this was/is clear if you follow the granular details closely. Here’s how we figure it out; and also the likely reason why no-one in Washington DC -including congress and the president- was previously aware.
[…] I have appointed a person outside of Washington, many years in the Department of Justice to look at all the allegations that the House Judiciary Committee members sent to us; and we’re conducting that investigation.
Also I am well aware we have a responsibility to insure the integrity of the FISA process, we’re not afraid to look at that. The inspector general, some think that our inspector general is not very strong; but he has almost 500 employers, employees, most of which are lawyers and prosecutors; and they are looking at the FISA process. We must make sure that it’s done properly, and we’re going to do that. And I’ll consider their request.” ~ Jeff Sessions, March 8th, 2017
…”to look at all the allegations that the House Judiciary Committee sent to us” – HERE is an Example. And here is a response:
♦#1) The DOJ Inspector General (Michael Horowitz) has an obligation to notify his superiors when he/she discovers illegal activity, or conduct that is likely unlawful, while conducting an internal investigation. The IG cannot sit on knowledge or evidence of likely criminal conduct, just because he/she is conducting an investigation. This is the same reason why IG Horowitz had to inform Special Counsel Robert Mueller in July of 2017 of the potentially unlawful conduct of members on his team (Lisa Page and Peter Strzok).
♦#2) The same people under investigation within the IG purview (FBI and DOJ officials) are transparently cooperating with the Inspector General. That cooperation, in combination with a likelihood of unlawful conduct, would require a DOJ official (prosecutor) to be assigned to negotiate and outline the DOJ legal terms of investigative compliance. The person negotiating the terms for cooperation would NOT be the Inspector General; because of the potential for criminal charges related to the investigated individuals, it would be the job of a DOJ career prosecutor to comply with legal needs.
♦#3) Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, Bruce and Nellie Ohr and Bill Priestap have quotes inside the HPSCI memos. Those quotes come from investigative interviews; no congressional committee has interviewed those persons. Those would be a few of the people in #2 above; and their testimony to Horowitz and a DOJ Prosecutor, would make them witnesses in a criminal investigation. That explains why they have not given interviews to congressional committees. The DOJ needs to keep the integrity of their testimony inside the investigative unit. (ie. in the control of the DOJ official from outside Washington that Jeff Sessions notes).
♦#4) President Trump is the chief executive over the DOJ and FBI; however, in this odd dynamic he is also the victim within the conspiracy as potentially outlined by the investigation. Therefore, again to protect the integrity of the investigation and witness testimony, the victim would be kept at arms length and not informed of the criminal investigation. That’s why POTUS Trump doesn’t know; and AG Sessions must keep distance from any discussion with the executive due to this separation.
♦#5) Cooperating witness testimony in a criminal investigation also means congress would not know of the details. Congress (Nunes, Gowdy and Goodlatte) wouldn’t even know a criminal investigation was opened. The prosecutor works parallel with, but separate from, the IG investigation. Congress would know of the IG, but not the prosecutor. This interview by AG Sessions is the first indication congress would have of a DOJ official already looking at the criminal issues.
♦#6) And the most transparent reason why we know there’s a DOJ prosecutor already on the case is because Jeff Sessions just said there was.
Attorney General Jeff Sessions – Federal Prosecutor John W. Huber
Here’s the U.S. Code explaining the power of the Inspector General – SEE HERE
Additionally on February 27th, 2018, Attorney General Jeff Sessions held a press briefing to announce the opioid task force (video below). During the Q&A segment of the presser, Fox News Catherine Herridge asked AG Sessions if the FISA court abuses outlined by Chairman Devin Nunes, Chairman Bob Goodlatte and Chairman Chuck Grassley would be investigated by the DOJ.
Attorney General Sessions affirmed the FISA court abuse by the DOJ and FBI was indeed be investigated and prosecuted and directed attention to Inspector General Michael Horowitz. [watch at 37:57 of video – prompted]
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This February 27th mention by AG Jeff Sessions WAS NOT NEWS.
That’s why the March 28th admission by IG Horowitz in this regard was NOT a surprise. It was happening all along.
The February statement by Jeff Sessions was exactly what those who have followed closely will note had seemed to be the direction of the IG investigation since mid-year 2017.
As AG Sessions affirmed, repeatedly, IG Horowitz was NOT limited in scope. Horowitz is investigating *all* avenues of politicization within the DOJ and FBI and abuse therein; this includes FISA abuse. If he found an issue, he had the authority to follow it.
Add this fact to General Sessions’ answers about the appointment of a DOJ official from outside Washington on March 8th, 2018, and you could clearly see the IG and appointed prosecutor have been working together for quite some time.
How long?
Likely since the time when IG Horowitz first informed the AG (Sessions) and DAG (Rosenstein) that he may have discovered significant evidence of unlawful conduct within the DOJ and FBI. That would be around July/August 2017, when IG Horowitz was bound by duty to inform DOJ Special Counsel Robert Mueller. That notification led to the removal of Peter Strzok and Lisa Page.
January 4th, 2018, an agreement was finally made between House Intelligence Committee Chairman Devin Nunes and DOJ Asst. Attorney General Rod Rosenstein for complete disclosure of all unredacted documents AND a list of witnesses who Nunes wanted the HPSCI to question.
Included in those names was: FBI agent Peter Strzok and FBI lawyer Lisa Page, who exchanged anti-Trump text messages during an affair and previously worked on the special counsel’s Russia probe; FBI general counsel James Baker, who was reassigned; FBI head of counterintelligence Bill Priestap, whom ex-FBI boss James Comey testified made the decision not to brief Congress about the Russia case during last year’s election; and Bruce Ohr, a DOJ official reassigned after concealing meetings with figures involved in the dossier.
The January 4th agreement between Devin Nunes and Rod Rosenstein was made after a great deal of back-and-forth. Chairman Nunes then documented the agreement in a letter.
On January 8th, Bruce Ohr was demoted for the second time. [AND DOJ officials scheduled Bruce Ohr to be available to Devin Nunes on January 17th]
On January 9th, the DOJ provided the unredacted DOJ/FBI documents requested to Chairman Nunes; the documents the DOJ produced surrounded the Clinton-Steele Dossier and the FISA Title-1 application. The documents were assigned to a SCIF in the basement of the House. Those documents become the basis for Chairman Nunes to outline his memo; essentially a declassification request to the White House written by Trey Gowdy.
As a result of the agreement between Rod Rosenstein and Devin Nunes, one member from each side of the HPSCI aisle (one Democrat and one Republican) was permitted to review the original FISA application documents which included the Clinton-Steele dossier use therein.
Trey Gowdy and Adam Schiff were the two Intel committee members who reviewed. (Remember, this is January 9th, 2018) [Only Gowdy, Schiff, Ratcliffe and House Judiciary Chairman Bob Goodlatte reviewed the original FISA documents]
A week later, January 16th, 2018, Chairman Nunes postponed the witness interview with DOJ official Bruce Ohr scheduled for the next day, January 17th.
Instead, on January 18th, 2018, the HPSCI voted to allow all members of the House to review the Nunes-Gowdy Memo created after the DOJ provided the documents (January 9th). [January 18th THROUGH February 2nd was #ReleaseTheMemo]
Now remember, throughout this time none of those prior agreed-upon FIVE witnesses (Strzok, Page, Priestap, Baker, Ohr) have been interviewed. Everyone’s attention shifted from witness testimony to the Memo; and as Democrat Eric Swalwell stated, no witness was interviewed. Period. [<- key point].
So to summarize so far: during January all the DOJ documents arrived, the HPSCI (Nunes) memo was written, released, declassified and released to the public on February 2nd, 2018 – but no witnesses testified. [Nunes Memo – Link]
So the question becomes:
How does the exact testimony (including quotes) of Bruce Ohr, and Bill Priestap become part of the Nunes Memo if neither Bruce Ohr or Bill Priestap was ever interviewed by the House Intelligence Committee?
Who is doing the interrogations of Bill Priestap and Bruce Ohr?
It’s not the HPSCI. It’s not the House Judiciary Committee and it’s not the Senate (Chuck Grassley). [Remember Grassley is relying on responsive FD-302’s provided by the FBI.]
See where this was going? The investigative unit of the IG is providing congress with transcripts of testimony from IG investigators (DOJ and FBI employees within the OIG); with the review, control and approval of the DOJ outside prosecutor. We now know that prosecutor is John Huber.
DOJ Inspector General Michael Horowitz has interviewed these witnesses, likely with his appointed DOJ prosecutor Huber, and extracted testimony. This explains why Devin Nunes changed his approach after discussion with AAG Rod Rosenstein and was no longer in a hurry to interview the FIVE? (Strzok, Page, Ohr, Baker and Priestap).
Let me remind everyone that each of the aforementioned names is still within the system. Unlike Mike Kortan, David Laufman, Sally Yates, James Rybicki or Andrew McCabe, none of the five (Strzok, Page, Ohr, Baker, Priestap) have been removed. Peter Strzok is in FBI HR; Lisa Page is doing something; Bruce Ohr and James Baker are holding down chairs somewhere; and Bill Priestap is still Asst. FBI Director in charge of counterintelligence.
It doesn’t go unnoticed the media are transparently not following up on Peter, Lisa, Bruce Jim or Bill. No satellite trucks in front of their houses etc.; no pounding on their doors for comment etc. Nothing.
Further, ask yourself why Inspector General Michael Horowitz (or someone thereabouts) began to advance upon the entire ‘Trump operation’ with releases of Peter Strzok and Lisa Page text messages? Why them? Surely, other collaborative communication was also captured, yet we only heard of Page and Strzok. Why?
Here’s what is becoming transparently obvious. The fab-five are cooperating with the investigative unit of the OIG. All five of them.
The text message release was strategic. It was intended to substantiate the entire enterprise, put the ‘small group on notice’ and flush out the co-conspirators. The downstream exits of Kortan, Laufman, Rybicki, McCabe et al are evidence therein.
Additionally, the OIG (Horowitz) would want to keep the testimony of Page, Strzok, Ohr, Baker and Priestap away from the Democrat politicians, well known leakers, within the House Intelligence Committee (ie. Eric Swalwell and Adam Schiff) until he was certain their usefulness as witnesses was exhausted.
The reason for this is transparently simple. The OIG is a division inside the Department of Justice. During an internal investigation if the IG becomes aware of unlawful activity he/she is obligated to inform the AG (Sessions) or AAG (Rosenstein). He can’t ignore it and he cannot delay notification of it. Unlawful activity must be reported.
The IG does not have legal or prosecutorial authority – the IG must immediately refer unlawful activity to the proper authority; essentially to his boss. A DOJ prosecutor is then assigned to work with the IG (as Jeff Sessions confirmed today) and essentially creates a parallel investigation focused only on the law-breaking part.
[That prosecutor could, likely would, then begin a Grand Jury proceeding; and no-one outside the AG, AAG, and the ‘outside’ prosecutor’s office would know.]
The prior testimony/statements to the IG by the fab-five would explain why AAG Rod Rosenstein was negotiating with Devin Nunes; would explain why Rosenstein was reluctant to allow testimony; and would also explain why Nunes came away from those negotiations with wind in his investigative sails.
The DOJ (Rod Rosenstein) needs to wall-off the politics (Nunes/Congress) from the ongoing criminal investigation (DOJ-OIG-Prosecutor John Huber) to preserve the integrity of his advancing and assembling case (including criminal witness testimony).
As soon as Chairman Nunes recognized something was going on, and after a review of the FISA documents – Nunes dropped his demand for immediate testimony by the fab-five to the HPSCI mid-January. [A record is already established]
As a person familiar with such specific investigative measures recently shared:
“They are sat down, told to not do anything, say anything or discuss anything UNTIL they get an attorney. At which time, the attorney is handed a letter from the investigating unit. That letter says in essence, this is how screwed you are. If you want to be less screwed you will sign this letter of cooperation and assist us. When we don’t need you, you sit there. When we do we will call you and you will provide what we need. Any deviation from this agreement lands you in jail for the full term.”
Additionally regarding Bruce and Nellie Ohr:
“The Republican memo states they turned over all their work and testified to someone that Bruce Ohr met with Christopher Steele and Steele was saying he didn’t want Trump in office. They didn’t testify to a Congressional committee, so it had to be the IG.”
The already existing “outside DOJ official” outlined by AG Sessions, John Huber the person who would be constructing the witness agreements with approval of his DOJ bosses, Rosenstein and Sessions. Is this all making sense now?
All of the news and information coming forward, including the lack of follow-up attention by the Democrats regarding the minority HPSCI memo, aligns with a very specific set of facts. Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, James Baker, Bill Priestap, Bruce Ohr and likely Nellie Ohr, have cut some kind of deal with prosecutor John Huber for process leniency in exchange for cooperation with the IG and DOJ prosecutor.
Thereby the Fab-Five have provided the IG investigative team and the DOJ prosecutor Huber with sworn statements and testimony which is highlighted in investigative communication between the DOJ and Chairman Nunes; and we saw snippets surfacing in the Nunes memo. That perspective explains everything seen and not seen.
It is likely the final investigative summary from the Department of Justice, Office of Inspector General (DOJ-OIG), Michael Horowitz, is going to be very encompassing. It is also likely to be immediately followed-up by actions, perhaps immediate indictments, from DOJ Prosecutor John Huber who Jeff Sessions brought in from outside Washington.
There is no need for a “Special Counsel” when a DOJ Prosecutor is already working with IG Horowitz. The “outside prosecutor” can begin issuing subpoenas for Grand Jury testimony and statements by the officials no longer within the DOJ/FBI, just as soon as the IG report is finished.
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