Category Economic Confidence Model

Jul 6 2023

BRICS to Replace the Dollar?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange Re-Posted Jul 6, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The goldbugs cling to everything they can to promote gold at the destruction of the dollar. They are pushing the idea that China, Russia, and other BRICS countries are developing a dollar alternative. The truth of the matter is that is more fiction. Even India’s foreign minister S. Jaishankar came out and said, “There is no idea of a BRICS currency.” Foreign minister S. Jaishankar made it clear that the five-member BRICS group – consisting of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – isn’t currently planning to develop a greenback substitute for trade and investments.  “On what we will discuss at the BRICS meeting, we’ll have to see because there are many other issues – but there is no idea of a BRICS currency,” he said, as shown by footage from the Hindustan Times.

To even attempt to do something is absurd to create a BRICS currency like the euro would doom their economies. The #1 market remains the American consumer, and to price things in some alternative currency would undermine their own economies. People need to understand currency.

That was the entire purpose of creating the Euro. German Chancellor Kohl took Germany into the euro for the purpose of eliminating the foreign exchange risk to other European states so that Germany could then sell more products throughout Europe. The euro was to eliminate that foreign exchange rise to increase sales. The propaganda of the goldbugs who just hate the dollar is utter nonsense. They will not create some BRICS alternative to the dollar, surrendering their sovereignty to some central power as all European states did by creating Brussels. Kohl denied the Germans the right to vote on joining the euro, for he knew he would lose. That is why he refused to consolidate the debts fearing the German people would rise up in revolt against him.

The Roman Empire was the financial capital of the Western World. They traded with both China through the silk road and India for spices. Even Alexander the Great attempted to conquer India and failed. Here we have an Indian imitation of a Roman gold aureus of Tiberius. The importance of Indian imitations of Roman gold coins demonstrates that there was a PREMIUM to the coinage of Rome above the metal content, which is why the Indians imitated Roman coinage. Otherwise, they would have minted their own coins in Southern India.

Indian imitations of Roman gold coins continued into the reign of Gordian III (2388-244AD), minted in Southern India that traded spices with the Greeks and the Romans. In Northern India, there was the Kushan Empire which was the first to issue Indian gold coinage. However, the Kushan Empire was not that portion of India that was engaged in the spice trade.

All of this proves a very significant point. The coinage was not simply the metal content. If that were the case, we would not find an imitation of the coinage of the dominant financial capital at that time. Here is a gold imitation of Philip II (359-337BC), Alexander the Great’s father.

We see the same imitation of the silver Athenian Owls (Tetradrachm) minted in Arabia. The same exists in Egypt, which did not issue its own coinage. Imitations of the dominant coinage of financial capital existed throughout the centuries.

Even during the 12-13th centuries, European states also imitated the gold Florin of Florence. All of this clearly establishes that the goldbugs are simply wrong and do not understand the monetary history of the world. There is always a premium to the dominant economic empire. For right now, that is the US dollar.

For now, the dollar will retain that role up to about 2029.

Jun 23 2023

Forecasts & the ECM


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hello,
I remember you writing more than once last fall that the week of Nov 9th was targeted by the computer for something significant. That week was the elections, which I think everyone focused on. However, FTX also collapsed that week, which is pretty significant. You have yet to take credit for this great prediction.
Thank you so much for your work, you are a true humanitarian.
Respectfully submitted,
SL

REPLY: These forecasts are not my personal opinion. There are just so many such forecasts it becomes overwhelming to try to point out every single one when the model is covering the entire world. I am working diligently to do the book on the Economic Confidence Model and all I can hope is that with a track record of such forecasts since the 1970s, just maybe, people will open their eyes and understand we cannot manipulate society for political gain when we are all connected. No politicians can eliminate unemployment when the world is in a depression.

I am trying to document the turning points historically. I have gathered all the people who have discovered cycles in EVERY field. Only is economics has cycles been rejected because economists and politicians want to pretend they can manipulate the world. That is what Klaus Schwab is trying to do right now.

I hope to have this book out with the first edition for the attendees of the WEC com November.

Jun 17 2023

Kim Iversen Interviews Martin Armstrong


Armstrong Economics Blog/Press Re-Posted Jun 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Unlocking the Future: Martin Armstrong’s Remarkable Predictions of Economic Cycles and Wars Amidst Relentless Persecution

Jun 12 2023

The True Story of Hyperinflation


Amstrong Economics Blog/Cryptocurrency Re-Posted Jun 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong,
could you please explain what happens in technical terms from a capital flow perspective, when confidence is lost and hyperinflation starts to begin?
For example Turkey. When Erdogan was elected i think you wrote that ever since the lira started dropping. So confidence in politics is key. Do you think one day we will see hyperinflation in Turkey?
And another example, is Yugoslavia: what caused the hyperinflation (in technical terms/capital flow perspective)? Are foreign investors getting rid of the dinars? Too many dinars than suddenly rushed back into Yugoslavia causing hyperinflation?
Regards,
Magdalena Š.

ANSWER: The misnomer about hyperinflation is that it is caused by printing money. It is a RESPONSE to the collapse in the confidence of the government.  If we look at the 3rd century, this is where we find the greatest number of hoards of ancient coins. What began this was the capture of Valerian I by the Persians in 260AD.

Valerian was the first Roman Emperor to be captured and Rome was unable to recuse him. That shook the confidence of the Roman people, but it also was a signal to the barbarian tribes in the North that if the Persians could do it, they could as well. Within 10 years, Emperor Aurelian constructed the great wall around Rome. Never before did Romans have such a defensive wall. That had a powerful army.

There was a trend toward debasing the silver coinage which began with Nero to try to fund the rebuilding of Rome after the Great Fire. But that did not undermine the confidence in the Roman Monetary System any more than our perpetual deficit spending since World War II.

However, a spark is ignited and suddenly that trend turns into what I have called a Waterfall event in the purchasing power of the currency. Such an event has taken various forms. However, the end result is the collapse in the confidence of the government and as a result, that is when you get that waterfall event.

In the case of Germany, Yugoslavia, Hungary, etc, there was a 1918 Revolution where communists seized power and the emperor of Germany lost power. In that case, they actually asked Russia to take Germany after their revolution in 1917. This was the beginning of the Weimar Republic.

Germany was saddled with reparation payments demanded by France. First, you had a communist revolution and people with capital began to flee to other places in Europe or certainly move their money out of German banks. It was this drain of wealth that forced the Weimar Republic to print money to try to make their reparation payments. Then in December 1922, they seized 10% of everyone’s assets and handed them a bond.

Here you can see that after that December 1922 confiscation, hyperinflation simply took over. It was NOT the printing of money that caused the hyperinflation it was the collapse of confidence FIRST which then compels the government to expand the money supply lacking taxation revenues etc.

I suspect the spark this time may be the Digital Currency and the proposed cancellation of paper currency. This is why people are moving to anything tangible from real estate, gold, silver, ancient coins, and even equities. With DIGITAL CURRENCY they will have capital controls and prevent you from even moving money outside of your country.

The precise day of the ECM was the announcement of the IMF Digital Currency which they intend to replace the US dollar as the reserve currency. This may be timed with the turning point in 2024. It is unlikely that they would cancel paper currencies before the 2024 election. This is all being

Jun 3 2023

The Great Awakening


Armstrong Economic Blog/Disease Re-Posted Jun 2, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Jun 3 2023

Interview: The Fall of Western Civilization


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Jun 3, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The Fall of Western Civilization with Martin Armstrong

Watch the video above or click here to view the latest interview.

Martin Armstrong returns to the Outer Limits of Inner Truth Podcast to discuss: what Socrates is saying about the 2024 election, the likelihood that CBDCs will not succeed based on what happened in Africa, the fall of Western Civilization, where the elites want to take humanity, and how to preserve your liberty in these trying times.

Jun 3 2023

May Jobs Report Show 339,000 Jobs Gained, Worked Hours Declines, Unemployment Rate Increases to 3.7%


June 2, 2023 | Sundance 

There is a strong divergence within the May jobs report as released by the Bureau of Labor and Statistics (BLS) [DATA HERE].  Payrolls increased 339,000 in May from April and previous months were revised up by 93,000. That is good news.  However, the household survey, from which the unemployment rate is derived, showed employment down 310,000 jobs and the unemployment rate increased to 3.7%.

One of the aspects driving higher payroll starts are the number of people taking on additional part-time jobs.  This aspect is noted in a decline for the number of hours in the average workweek. As more PT jobs are added, the number of hours in a workweek declines. As noted in the BLS data, “the average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.3 hours in May.”

There were 161.0 million people working in April.  There are 160.7 million people working in May.

There were 5.7 million people unemployed in April.  There are 6.1 million unemployed people in May.

The unemployment rate increased from 3.4% to 3.7%.

There are 310,000 fewer people working in May than were working in April.  However, payrolls increased by 339,000 over the same timeframe. See graph above for where those jobs were gained.

(NBC) – […] Job gains were broad-based last month with health care contributing 52,000 and leisure and hospitality adding 48,000. Food services and drinking places led the increase in the latter industry, which had been adding an average of 77,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months.

Overall, the U.S. economy added 339,000 jobs for the month, much better than the 190,000 Dow Jones estimate and marking the 29th straight month of positive job growth.

The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% in May against the estimate for 3.5%. The jobless rate was the highest since October 2022, though still near the lowest since 1969.

Olu Sonola, head of U.S. regional economics at Fitch Ratings, said the jobs report is a mixed bag.

“The strength of the payroll survey is clearly a big surprise, largely on the back of robust job growth in the healthcare sector and the business and professional services sector,” said Sonola. “However, the 0.3% increase in the unemployment rate is the highest monthly increase since April 2020.” (more)

WAGES – As noted within the BLS report, “In May, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $33.44. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.3 percent.” Wage growth still lags inflation; the middle class is getting poorer.  However, with the fed focused on wage growth as the leading indicator of their false pretenses to combat inflation, wage growth is too high (they want around 3.0%).

The Biden economic and monetary policies are delivering the results they want.  Higher energy prices, higher costs of living, lower real wages and increased middle class pressure. The serf model.

The BLS was forced to admit yesterday their Real Hourly Compensation growth was previously flawed.  [CHART DATA SOURCE]

That chart of revisions to real wages tells us a lot about the economic pain being felt by the working class in the U.S.  If it feels like you are working harder and going backwards in your ability to afford basic essentials, that’s because you are.

The prices for essential goods and services have risen at a much greater rate than the wages needed to afford them.  This is the result of Joe Biden’s energy policy, economic policy, and now magnifying monetary policy.

Our goods and housing costs are higher.  Our wages are not growing much.  The cost to borrow money to afford the gap is increasing.  This is unsustainable.

In my opinion, the economy overall – as a measure of units produced and sold – has been in a contracting position since the fourth quarter of 2021.  The appearance of economic growth, the value of goods and services, is an illusion that has been created by higher prices, ie. inflation.

May 31 2023

Byron Donalds and Chip Roy Are Furious About McCarthy Debt Ceiling Deal – House Freedom Caucus Says “NO”!


Posted originally on the CTH on May 30, 2023 | Sundance 

As details begin to emerge, many of the House Republicans are furious at Kevin McCarthy for the deal to lift the debt ceiling he has brokered with Joe Biden.

Suddenly, the prior battle and construct of the House Rules Committee is becoming important.   While Kevin McCarthy may have the 218 votes on the floor of the House to pass the deal, he first has to get it out of the House Rules Committee (HRC).  If three Republicans oppose it in the HRC, McCarthy cannot get it to the floor.  Chip Roy and Ralph Norman are on the HRC and oppose the bill.   Thomas Massie is also on the HRC but appears to be supporting Kevin McCarthy (lol, because muh principles).

https://youtube.com/watch?v=BMxbCiQNXIs%3Ffeature%3Doembed

Byron Donalds also delivered a strong rebuke of the McCarthy deal, as outlined below:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=S8OJycSQM_E%3Ffeature%3Doembed

WASHINGTON DC – […] The powerful House Rules Committee will spend Tuesday afternoon debating and — ultimately working to pass — the bipartisan debt deal, requiring a simple majority of at least seven votes on the panel to come to the floor. But some conservatives, including Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), a committee member, have signaled they may use their power on that panel to block the debt plan from receiving a full House vote.

“I’m going to do what’s in the best interest and this bill is not in the best interest of the country. That is why Democrats are voting for it,” said Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), another conservative who sits on the Rules panel and has suggested he will oppose the bill during the panel’s meeting.

[…] Under the panel’s current makeup, Rules Chair Tom Cole (R-Okla.) can lose two GOP votes — along with all four Democratic votes — and still advance the bill.

Senior Republicans believe that’s exactly what’s going to happen, according to three people familiar with the discussions. Norman and Roy haven’t explicitly said they will oppose, though Massie is expected to vote in support of the measure going to the floor.

GOP Whip Tom Emmer (R-Minn.) said that he is “confident” that the bill will hit the floor on Wednesday, noting that Rules would be considering amendments. Members submitted more than 55 amendments to the debt deal, most of them from Republicans but some from Democrats as well. (read more)

Rep Dan Bishop: The bill is bad

May 27 2023

You Have 8.6 Years Left – Politics of Fools


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted May 27, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Martin,
DeSantis announced his run for the Republican candidacy. You’ve mentioned several times he would be eaten by the career politicians in Washington. What if he becomes Trump’s running mate? Would that be a good course?
Sincerely, Martijn

ANSWER: That would be the only way I would see DeSantis as having any real influence. As I have said, I was asked if I would talk Trump out of running and join the advisory team for DeSantis last year. I declined. I replied that everything has changed and that they would just eat him for lunch as they did to Trump when he first walked into Washington.

Washington has declined so much so, that the fools on the Hill now think just switching to a Republican will make it all better. The Biden administration has inflicted so much political damage as well as division among the people, the USA must fall. It cannot stand as one nation with such division. And it is not even Biden – who is the real symbol of the Fool on the Hill. He is only the puppet just like the last emperors of Rome.

I do not care that the propaganda claims the election of 2020 was not rigged. Of course, it was, but not by the Democrats. They too are naive. The Deep State is in full control. The CIA convinced Trump to delay the release of JFK files until after the election. They played Trump like a fiddle. When Biden got in, he granted their perpetual stay to cover up their involvement. The FBI was out to prevent a Trump victory. Anyone who thinks that the CIA, NSA, or FBI cannot change the vote is an even bigger fool. They should grab a gun and go fight for Zelensky.

NONE of this from war to climate would have taken place under Trump. I said I had gone to Mara Largo in March 2020 for dinner and that is when Trump actually impressed me. He said he would pull the troops out of Afghanistan because he was tired of writing letters to parents explaining their son died for God and their country. He said they were fighting over borders that for 1,000 years. What difference are we going to make?

Perhaps you will remember in January 2019, Iran shot down an American drone. There is no question that John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser at the time, was provoking Iran-U.S. tensions. He wanted another war. Quite frankly, Bolton would invade Canada to hunt down a Russian. Trump fired the Neocons, and rightly so. There is NO WAY they will allow a free election in 2024 and as a last resort they will assassinate Trump for now he understands the real game in Washington. They can now freely assassinate him since they are moving to digital currency and won’t have to look at his face on a coin or dollar bill.

Trump is clearly the better choice because he knows the real game now in Washington. They will eat DeSantis for lunch and spit him out. The Deep State is in full control. And for those who hate Trump, don’t be fooled. Sorry, Dorothy, you are not in Kansas anymore. Party politics is DEAD! This is the decline and fall of the United States and Western Civilization. You have 8.6 years left. In Washington, this has become the politics of fools. The more they lose control, the more totalitarian they will become.

The World Health Organization (WHO) can make recommendations after the declaration of a global emergency. It has no definitive control over any nation’s decisions. However, as we saw with COVID, countries bow to the WHO and that included the Biden Administration. The left zealots love to scream loudly that conservatives falsely claim that amendments proposed by the Biden administration to existing global health regulations, and a new WHO pandemic treaty, will threaten U.S. sovereignty. They are actually correct, but not that the WHO will have absolute control. That would be UNCONSTITUTIONAL. But the Biden Administration wants to push for “voluntary” compliance and surrender our policy to conform to that of the WHO.

Trump was correct – NATO and the WHO should be defunded. They are both power-hungry organizations that exert only their own self-interests. When Communism fell, there was no longer a need for NATO. The days of Kruschev were gone. Putin, Yeltsin, and Gorbachev were never interested in invading Europe to spread communism. That boast died long ago.

The American NEOCONS adopted the opposite view that they would conquer the world and spread their version of “democracy” which is really their pretend version of a free government since they are never elected. NATO had no purpose but kept the idea that Russia wanted to conquer the world. They have always promoted war – never peace.

From the very beginning of the UN, they too have dreamed of becoming the one-world government. This remains the agenda and they too promote war in hopes of rising in their glory to become the great peacemaker and solidify their power. This is why the exercise of power at the WHO is surfacing and it is all promoted by the World Economic Forum which is the Marxist brainchild of Schwab.

May 20 2023

You are NOT Alone


May 19, 2023 | Sundance 

You are NOT alone!…

It might, heck, -check that- it does seem overwhelming at times.  But that is the nature of this collectivist strategy.  That is the purpose of this bombardment.  We must hold strong and push back against the lies and manipulations.  If you look closely at the attack, it is weak and much of it is psychological bait.  Do not fall into the trap of despair.

When I share the message “live your best life”, it is not without purpose.  Every moment that we allow the onslaught to deter us from living our dreams, is a moment those who oppose our nation view as us taking a knee.  Do not allow this effort to succeed.  You might ask yourself how I can, one person, a flea looking into a furnace, retain an optimistic disposition while all around me seems chaotic and mad.

Simple answer, it’s your choice.  Two wolves fight – one filled with despondency, isolation, despair and dark imaginings; the other filled with faith, something bigger, unrelenting hope, focus and driven to remain connected. Which wolf will win?  The one you feed.

The feeling of isolation begins first with a rejection of God…  If you want to shake it, reconnect.

Shake it off. “Get up, get back on your feet, you are the one they can’t beat, and you know it.” WATCH:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=xpYHgbjOIq0%3Ffeature%3Doembed

The point?  It ‘seems’ chaotic and mad because it has been created to appear that way.  There are more of us than them; they just control the systems that allow us to connect, share messages and recognize the scale of our assembly.

And here we are… divided by a network of seemingly intoxicating systems; many purposefully driven by the modern dynamic of social media, steering a tribal outcome we are only now just beginning to fathom.

Ultimately the collective weight of progressive leftism is putting us is isolation. There are many historic references to this disconcerting sentiment to review with hindsight. However, ultimately the feeling of isolation first begins with a rejection of God.  Defeat it by embracing Him.

In/around July 2020 it was obvious in my travels we were on the precipice of a disconnect from human interaction that would numb our psyche to what ultimately matters, fellowship.

Not only are various governmental agencies forcing the separation of people from their community networks, we were also seeing faith-based organizations, churches, buying into the fear.

Even in areas where churches were not forcibly shut down, we saw a structural shift where some faith leaders were willingly ostracizing their community under the guise of various medical, social and cultural alarms.

This is not good…. not good at all.

Fellowship is the essential ingredient to a purposeful life. How and why we interact with each-other is how and why we recharge our core humanity.

To see faith leaders willing to separate from the function of fellowship was alarming. However, as individuals we must not allow this foreboding sense to become the normal expectation.

Our nation needs more people like you, right now. Don’t wait… engage life, get optimistic however you need to do it. Then let that part of you shine right now… This is how we fight. Hold up that flag; give the starter smile… rally to the standard you create and spread fellowship again.

Throughout history large armies have been defeated through the process of division. It is not a leap to see the same strategic objectives being deployed against social assemblies including congregations. It is puzzling how many in leadership cannot see the danger in social and spiritual distance when the bond of fellowship is needed more than ever.

Each of us has a different connection to our community. Each of us has a different level of internal strength… such is the nature of living. However, the distance between people is manifestly not a good outcome when combined with the lack of food for the soul.

The influence of social media is already troublesome, physically distancing from human engagement only worsens the impact. There is no digital replacement for the true fellowship of humanity on a personal level.

Ultimately it is the currency of human connection that is the true value in our lives.

We have each felt how our positive influence upon the lives of others nourishes our own sense of purpose and fulfillment… Do not lose that. Do not think you can compensate for that through other arbitrary measures; you cannot.

With local, state and federal leaders moving increasingly toward self-interest; with disconnected workplaces creating social distance; with faith-based leaders unfocused on the value of fellowship; and now government entering your home to tell you the importance of separating yourself from your family we must dispatch these arbitrary decrees very deliberately.

Perhaps we are in this position today because we didn’t sit still enough and contemplate the real priorities in our lives.  Fellowship is the essential ingredient to a purposeful life.

I will not divide my humanity, nor concede my core view of fellowship, simply to comply with the demand of another that I consider my brother or sister of greater or less value than myself.  Any system that seeks to steer my path will not benefit from my participation.  I choose freedom!

My f**king choice…

Our Liberty is inherent.

Our freedom is inherent.

The removal of both requires consent.

I choose not to disconnect.

I choose purpose.

I choose my own humanity.

I believe in a generous loving God.

My faith stands.

Whatever it takes.

I’m going back into the battle, refreshed, renewed, rearmed and restored….  No weapon formed against us will prosper!

Love to all,

~ Sundance

https://youtube.com/watch?v=TYLwt2Ryf2c%3Ffeature%3Doembed

It was a coup d’ ètat… and Trump caught them all