Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 20, 2022 | Sundance
The German government released their version of the producer price index for inflation, and they are reporting 30.9% inflation for products leaving German factories. [DETAILS HERE] That’s the highest rate of inflation since shortly after the second world war.
The inflation rate is being driven mostly by energy costs which are more than 80% higher than last year. However, each nation’s overall inflation rate is also driven by the amount of central bank spending they used during the COVID economic lockdowns. The more any govt spent on subsidies, the more money they printed, the more they devalued their money and subsequently, the higher their current rate of inflation.
Germany is the largest economy in the European Union. This level of inflation within Germany has major ramifications.
First, with this level of energy inflation Germany cannot afford to stop purchasing Russian energy products. There’s no way for Germany to join or increase western sanctions against oil and gas they need to stay sufficient. Germany is dependent on Russian energy.
Second, with Germany’s economy this vulnerable; and with Germany being so dependent on Russian energy; Germany will have to distance itself further from any Ukraine assistance. In the background of western voices already being upset with Germany for not providing more support for Ukraine, their economic vulnerability explains their unwillingness. The U.S. proxy war against Russia does not benefit Germany, at all.
Third, as a result of the first two points, Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be even more mad than he was yesterday. Additionally, the German position makes Biden more vulnerable because it forces the U.S. to take a bigger public footprint on the entire operation. This explains why the people in the background of the White House are saying Ron Klain needs to quickly extricate Biden from his unilateral focus on Ukraine.
If the White House doesn’t cut Zelenskyy loose soon, the anchor of fail Ukraine represents will further sink Biden. Sooner or later the White House, Administrative Deep State, Dept of State and Intelligence apparatus along with the total foreign policy establishment and all the politicians who benefit financially from their use of Ukraine, are going to have to give up.
With countries like Germany needing to back away, it becomes harder for the Biden administration to retain the false front around NATO as a justification for their intervention and money laundering operations.
Additionally, if the French election goes to Le Pen on Sunday, well, katybar the door – because it’s complete and total game over…. Ukraine will be cut loose and someone from the CIA will assassinate Zelenskyy on the way out, leaving a note on the nightstand that says, “Putin did it.”
GERMANY – German annual producer price inflation topped 30% in March, the country’s Federal Statistics Office said on Wednesday. That’s its highest level since the agency began collecting data 73 years ago.
The biggest culprit? Energy prices, which rose nearly 84% from the same month last year. “Mainly responsible for the high rise of energy prices were the strong price increases of natural gas… which was [up] 144.8% on March 2021,” the statistics office said in a statement.
It is one of first signs of the huge impact Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having on the German economy, Europe’s biggest. Producer prices rose by nearly 5% between February and March alone.
Consumers should brace themselves. Factory gate inflation feeds into retail prices, and shoppers can expect to spend more on everything from furniture to meat, according to Wednesday’s figures.
German consumer price inflation is already at a 41-year high, hitting 7.3% last month. Energy prices were the main contributor, up almost 40% from the previous month. (read more)
Smart Investor talks to legendary cycle analyst Martin Armstrong about Corona, war and reshaping the world
Smart Investor: Mr. Armstrong, in 2015, The Forecaster, a powerful film about your life, was released. We interviewed you extensively in Smart Investor 5/2015. How have you been doing in the meantime and what are your current projects? Armstrong: I was involved in a sequel to the film that will be out later this year. Otherwise, we have expanded our services and have now launched our computer system, which is the system that the government wanted for itself. It now produces over 1,000 written reports every day all over the world without human intervention. We now use it in over 40 countries, which means we probably have the largest institutional customer base in the world.
Smart Investor 5/2015
Smart Investor: Would you briefly explain your forecasting approach to our readers again? Armstrong: In the 1980s and 1990s, I was one of the top international hedge fund managers, even being named hedge fund manager of the year for predicting the collapse of Russia, which triggered the 1998 hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management crisis. During that time, I’d watched global investment capital refocus on markets and then move on—leaving Japan in 1989, Southeast Asia in 1994, and Russia in 1998, followed by the euro. All of this was fueled by capital flows. One can follow these movements of capital and see how they cause the boom-bust cycles around the globe.
Smart Investor: The topic of Corona has kept us under its spell for more than two years. Was this turning point, or a drastic event like this, visible in your cycle model? Armstrong: Yes, I warned at our own World Economic Conference that if our model flipped in January 2020 (= year 2020.05) the market would crash. We were even able to pinpoint the exact day for the March 2020 bottom. Had an event like Corona happened during an uptrend, it would have been largely ignored. But if something like this happens while the model is turning down, then sentiment is inherently bearish. We also warned that there would be a scarcity-based commodity cycle from January 2020 to 2024.
Smart Investor: In our perception, major pandemics occur with a certain regularity. Have you thought about some kind of plague cycle and how it might continue? Armstrong: Such epidemics have always existed – but never in history have governments reacted so madly. The global lockdown has cost jobs and created bottlenecks in supply chains that will persist for several years to come. It was an absurd response that was proven wrong and caused a lot more damage. Most people know someone who got sick from COVID but didn’t die from it. Those who died would likely have died from any form of respiratory disease, such as occurs during the annual cycle of influenza. It was not a dangerous plague that killed 30% to 50% of the population like smallpox or the black plague in the 14th century.
Smart Investor: Now a new dominant event has been triggered with the hot war in Ukraine. How does this war fit into your model, specifically the war cycle? Armstrong: That too came at exactly the “right” time. Our model showed 1/16/2022. Unfortunately, instead of trying to bring peace to the world, the West has demonized Putin. The claim that Putin wanted to restore the old Soviet Union was pure propaganda. For the past 22 years he has made no attempt to restore communism, only calling Lenin himself a communist. He did not try to expand the borders but warned against NATO encroachment. In war, both sides spread propaganda, and it is always important to be objective about the claims of both sides. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was consistent with his warnings and came four days after US Vice President Harris recommended Ukraine join NATO. That was totally irresponsible.
Smart Investor: Can you see in your models which regions or countries will suffer the most in this conflict, who will get off lightly and who will be the beneficiaries? Armstrong: On both sides there are what we call neocons, people who just hate the other side. They cannot sleep at night as long as their enemy exists. Unfortunately, the deteriorating economic outlook is a reminder that war has often served as a diversionary tactic in the past. It looks like China is allying itself with Russia. I believe the confiscation of Russian private property was a serious violation of international law. Others, too, will realize that their assets could be confiscated if their country got into a dispute with the West. This would, of course, lead to a drop in global investment. It is precisely this process that seems to have started and, according to our models, will only get much worse over the next ten years. Disputes between countries are likely to remain at this level. The arrest of individuals simply because they are Russian is reminiscent of the internment camps for Japanese in the US during World War II solely on the basis of their ethnicity. It is very detrimental to the world economy when free investment is hampered.
Smart Investor: If we understand it correctly, the cycles develop largely independently of the specific actions of individuals. It’s hard to imagine, but would an escalation have been inevitable even if the Russian President hadn’t given the order for the invasion? Armstrong: That’s right. Demonizing Putin is absurd. There have been far worse leaders in history, like Hitler or Stalin, who could kill millions of people without thinking twice. The development of things is primarily determined by the economy. Normally you don’t bite the hand that feeds you. But imposing sanctions on Russia has exactly the opposite effect: they isolate Russia and sever economic ties, leading to casualties and in turn evoking anger and retaliation. Rome survived for 1,000 years because the conquered provinces benefited from selling their products to Rome. The confiscation of Russia’s currency reserves is above all a warning to China to be very careful in its dealings with the West. For China, the exclusion of Russia from the SWIFT system only means that it is working flat out to introduce its variant of CIPS. Saudi Arabia just agreed to sell oil for yuan. These measures only guarantee that conflicts will continue to escalate and the world economy will be split in half.
Smart Investor: As investors, we try to prepare for strong cycles like these. Which asset classes or sectors should one avoid in this situation and where can one expect safety? Armstrong: Government bonds in particular are to be avoided. Governments will default and you will get nothing back. The loans from European governments from before the Second World War are now just an attractive wall decoration. When a company goes bust, its assets are sold and at least you get something back. But you can’t just run into the art museum and steal Picassos in the government. In times of war and geopolitical conflict, real assets are the best security.
Smart Investor: Gold is considered the safe haven, and Bitcoin is also perceived as such in some places. However, these two assets are also more of a thorn in the side of our governments. What do you think of the idea that the Russia argument could make life difficult for investors here in the future? Armstrong: Gold has lost its mobility – so you can’t hop on a plane and fly somewhere with a briefcase full of gold coins or bars. Cryptocurrencies are vulnerable, because without a power grid, credit cards are a thing of the past. The government is trying to switch to digital currencies and they will not allow competition so they will confiscate cryptocurrencies. The best is paper money or small denomination silver coins that are recognizable to the average person. Tin cans will also have an exchange value if there is no electricity grid.
Smart Investor: Gold and cryptocurrencies are also the main alternatives to paper money, which the war is putting additional pressure on. Will the US dollar and euro survive this? Armstrong: The US dollar will outlast the euro, but if we get into a real world war, the paper dollars could lose their value too. Europe has historically canceled its fiat money, while the US dollar has never been cancelled. Even Canada is now nullifying its currency.
Smart Investor: The Great Reset, the World Economic Forum and Prof. Dr. Klaus Schwab are making waves in Europe. During the corona pandemic, the government measures literally dismantled the medium-sized economy. What do you think of the corporations’ “Big Plan” and are the actors’ ideas compatible with the cycles? Armstrong: The Great Reset is indeed a real goal. It’s not a conspiracy theory. The three stumbling blocks along the way were Trump, Putin and Xi. They got rid of the first one, and now the propaganda has turned to demonizing Putin and Xi. They believe that if they get rid of these two leaders, they can unite the world under the United Nations. Our models have warned that authoritarianism will rise in this final decade. But they will fail. Marx succeeded only because serfdom in Russia did not end until 1861, while in Europe it only lasted until the fourteenth century. So the people owned nothing, and it was easy to confiscate the wealth of the aristocrats. Today people own their own houses, cars and save for the future. The slogan “You will have nothing and be happy” propagated by the WEF is a red herring. Governments can no longer borrow indefinitely and there will be a default. To disguise this fact, the impression is given that all debts are being forgiven and that they are doing it for you. The guaranteed basic income will be there to replace the pension funds that hold government debt today.
Smart Investor: Thank you very much for your very interesting explanations.
In stock market circles, the American Martin Armstrong (born 1949) is considered a legend. As early as the early 1980s, he correctly predicted the stock market crash of 1987 – and in the midst of the panic he predicted new highs for 1989. He also predicted the bursting of the Japanese stock bubble at the end of 1989. He made his forecasts using the “Economic Confidence Model” (ECM) he developed himself, which is based on a database on the history of coins, which Armstrong used to reconstruct the (financial) history. You can find his daily updated assessments on the blog https://armstrongeconomics.com .
The wholesale prices in Germany rose at a record pace in March. Compared to the same month the previous year, wholesale prices jumped by 22.6%, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Tuesday in Wiesbaden. This is the highest increase since calculations ever began in 1962. In February, the rate was already high at 16.2%, which has been surpassed here in March. Month-on-month, wholesale prices rose 6.9%, which is yet another record increase.
Our models are pointing to serious trouble ahead for Germany and this poking Russia is all intended as a diversion from the collapse of the European economy that is underway. The negative interest rates since 2014 have wiped out the pension funds and proven that the central bank can no longer control the economy. Add to that, the braindead COVID restrictions which have dealt a serious blow through the heart of the supply chain, and we have a recipe for total economic disaster which is being reflected in the inflation rates which then leads to civil unrest.
I have stated many times, we have the WORST possible crop of world leaders I have ever witnessed in my lifetime. There is not a single character that I would be able to sit down and have an intelligent conversation with. Germany appointing Jenifer Morgan in charge of their environmental policies and the intent was to make her their Secretary of State is just astonishing. What is her role? Tell Putin to turn off his tanks because they create CO2?
These climate zealots have managed to destroy the world economy in just two years. Never in the history of humanity has there EVER been such stupidity from those in power. They should admire their heads in the mirror every day, for if history repeats, they will be dragged from their palaces and their heads might be adorning spikes with cheers of vindication.
It is well known that the first casualty of war is the truth, and nothing sorts out the lies more than troops crossing political borders. Hence, they also say that history is written by the victors. Ever since COVID, we have witnessed a rising trend of civil unrest politicians have been working hard to deliberately create war with Russia all cloaked in their real objective of controlling the planet. Ever since this intended war to poke the Russian Bear, there’s been an acceleration of every conflicting agenda on the world stage. This has crashed the world economy, ended Globalization, and divided the world into US v THEM with the only resolution being armed conflict. Our World Leaders need a war with Russia and then will turn on China as they think threatening China with sanctions will prevent them from joining Russia against the West. This will fail – China is not that stupid. Blaming the other guy is always the way to war. They need to demonize the enemy to inspire hatred that they use to manipulate war.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s attempt to mandate vaccinations for everyone over 60 was blocked by Parliament in a 378-296 vote. The bill would have forced all Germans over the age of 60 to receive three vaccinations before October 1, 2022.
The Social Democrats (SPD), Free Democrats (FDP), and Greens were all pushing this bill forward and will likely continue to fight for a mandate. If Parliament did not vote in favor of the people, this would have opened the floodgates to endless vaccination mandates for the entire population. Under the failed bill, unvaccinated Germans would have been required to attend a doctor consultation to discuss (coerce) them into getting the vaccine.
They want to force injections on the people without erasing existing restrictions because they know the vaccine is ineffective. Parliament’s ruling comes as a silver lining, but the fight for medical freedom is far from over.
Posted originally on the conservative tree house on April 3, 2022 | Sundance
The inflationary impact to any specific country is directly proportionate to the scale of the government intervention in the COVID lockdown spend. Almost all of the nations who deployed the WEF program are in the same inflationary position.
The U.S., U.K., New Zealand, Australia, Canada and the EU, within which Germany is the largest economy, all followed the WEF spending instructions.
(Germany) – According to the German Retail Association (HDE), consumers should prepare for another wave of price hikes for everyday goods and groceries.
Even before the outbreak of war in Ukraine, prices had risen by about five per cent “across the product range” as a result of increased energy prices, HDE President Josef Sanktjohanser told the Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung on Friday.
With Russia’s invasion hitting economies and the supply chain harder, yet another series of price increases is on the horizon. “The second wave of price increases is coming, and it will certainly be in double figures,” Sanktjohanser warned. (read more)
Every time the supermarket checkout rings, a yellow vested rebel is created.
While the Neocon strategy of DEMONIZING an adversary as they have done to Putin, the very same strategy was used to get people to absolutely hate Donald Trump. The more someone hates Trump still, the more susceptible they are to simple techniques of mind manipulation. This has led many to cheer for the Ukrainians to defeat Russians and we have the White House calling Putin a War Criminal when you could say the same thing about the US leaders that started the endless saga of wars on false pretenses or took out civils with drones when they wrongly thought they were terrorists.
The White House appears to be under the influence of the Neocons who just always advocate war. Make no mistake about it, these Neocons are not confined to just the Democrats or Republicans. They share a love for war and the hatred of everyone they perceive to be an enemy. It’s tempting to think that Putin will suffer a defeat and democracy could revive in Russia, but a more likely scenario is total world chaos. Russia is also comprised of Muslims who number about 14 million or roughly 10% of the total population. Then there are different cultures and you will see internal chaos and separatist movements armed with nukes.
Putin is not a fool and he is actually honoring his word. He is not trying to conquer Ukraine. His column of tanks had stopped as a show of force and intimidation. He has not ordered just total annihilation. The US strategy is we go in and flatten everything targeting water and power grid. Put took the power station but did not turn off the power. The West portrays this as Putin is stalled and the Ukrainians could defeat the Russians. But this seems to be propaganda all designed to wear down the moral of the Russian troops and sway public opinion for Ukraine.
While the press also portrays that Putin’s nation has now been subjected to an isolation greater than any nation has ever experienced by any major power in history, it was US sanctions to cut off the fuel to Japan that caused them to attack Pearl Harbor. There were later even Congressional investigations into FDR and did he deliberately try to create a situation to get the USA into World War II. Congress simply said the allegations were inconclusive.
Since late February, Russia has been hit with punishing economic, trade and financial sanctions. Putin struck back and said all energy sales to unfriendly nations will now be in Rubles. Saudi Arabia also agreed with China to sell oil in Yuan. These are historically critical events that have torn the world economy asunder. There will NEVER BE A RETURN TO NORMAL.
So while the Western Press cheers and reports that Russia is careering toward a debt default, they forget that the default will be on the West. A very rapid technological decoupling is also underway dividing the world economy and that will threaten free trade and the end of economic growth. Indeed, US GDP Growth rate peaked in real terms.
The mass withdrawal of American firms from Russia will have a profoundly negative impact moving forward and the world economy is shrinking rapidly. Russia isn’t some weak power like Iraq. Russia is a major power whose population was, until recently, deeply connected to its larger global environment. The White House thinks that Russians will blame Putin rather than Biden. Eastern European states like Serbia and in the Middle East are looking at the United States as the problem being arrogant and interfering in everyone else’s affairs. It is without question that the United States has declare war on Russia. This is how World War II began with countries attacking one another in the financial markets.
So while the Neocons lick their lips at the thought of overturning Putin and controlling Russia before they turn on China, they are clearly not looking long-term. They took out Saddam Hussein who kept the religious zealots in their place. Once he was removed, the Middle East saw the rise of ISIS. The US has been covertly funding the Ukrainian Nazis to keep up their fight against Donbass.
Let us may no mistake here. The Neocons pushed and funded through the CIS the Taliban for then they were the anti-Soviet resistance. The CIA Special Activities Division sent paramilitary officers to equip the Mujihadeen forces against the Soviet Army. The US therefore funded Taliban mainly to assist in ending the Soviet’s occupation in Afghanistan. However, the Neocons can never think past the end of their nose. They have no long-term strategies, only win what is immediately in front of them. The taliban benefited from expanded foreign military support from the United States. They then used that training against US troops who were in search of terrorists from 911.
The foolish view among the Neocons is they think bringing Democracy to the Middle East or now to Russia and China will somehow make them friends or stable is an absolute joke. The idea of creating a “Moscow Spring” by punishing the Russian people until they do what the CIS and Neocons demand does not make the costs of conflict lead worth it. Marx brought his ideas and it cost over 200 million lives to install communism. America is hated for its interference by the Neocons in many circles.
Both China and Russia have American arrogance as a common enemy and the Russian or Chinese people will not send them flowers and Xmas cards thanking them for destroy everything they have built since 1989. However, RELIABLE sources in the Middle East, the UAE, Egypt and even Israel are angry over Biden’s sanctions. Yet the Neocons claim that total isolation forced regime change in South Africa. However, they also had no military power to fight back. That is like claiming a fight is fair with one kid has a rubber band and the other a baseball bat.
Somebody in Washington needs to start thinking strategically and realistically about this endeavor to isolate Russia for all that is unfolding at a rapid rate is the disintegration of the world economy. In 1989, then President George H.W. Bush understood there were serious risks with the collapse of the Soviet Union and Communism. Russia is big and powerful enough that its role in the world economy is vital to the overall health of the international order . The US NEEDS Russia as an economic friend not and adversary for nobody will win with that result.
The Western propaganda is that Russia and China represent authoritarian rule. However, Western governments are no better. Sure, we have elections but then the candidate arrives in Washington and they are told they will vote according to the Party Agenda rendering the image of free elections only just that. In Europe, the people do not vote for the Commission which makes the laws nor for the head of state. We do not live in a Democracy for the people never are allowed to vote on an issue like war or peace.
The likelihood of Putin being overthrown and Democracy is sudden born has less than a zero change of ever being correct.
For those who are not aware of the dark side of Ukraine during World War II and the Ukrainian Nazis who also engaged in the ethnic cleansing of Jews, Poles, and Russians, I suggest taking the time to watch this film.
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This is a library of News Events not reported by the Main Stream Media documenting & connecting the dots on How the Obama Marxist Liberal agenda is destroying America
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