Tag Archives: BREXIT

Nov 2 2018

BREXIT to be Signed by the Pi Target – November 21st, 2018?


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN

Re-Posted Nov 2, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Dear Martin

I am once again in awe of your mighty computer. I refer to today’s announcement by Dominic Raab that a deal on Brexit should be ready for the 21st November.
I am concerned that the UK Parlament will agree to this deal, which is a sell-out of all the main reasons we Brits voted to leave the EU. If this happens, I fear for how the majority will react.
Thank you for your remarkable service.

Sincerely

REPLY:

The most curious comment was made Dominic Rennie Raab in Britain, who is a British Conservative Party politician serving as Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, suggested that the UK’s increasingly absurd BREXIT negotiations with the EU could be completed in three weeks’ time. He said in a letter he had sent to a select committee that ended up being released in which he said he was happy to appear before it the committee on November 21st after “a deal is finalized”.

This has caused quite a stir to say the least. After all this insane attempt by Brussels to PUNISH Britain to leave their dictatorship which never stands for election, is quite amazing. Brussels has been pushing their own agenda to punish the Brits as a deterrent to others from leaving. However, the German auto manufacturers are screaming loud for their #1 market in Europe has always been the Brits. Punish Britain and Germany will enter a major economic downturn. Still, this deal will not be all it was hoped to be. It does not represent a clean break. The cartoon running around the net of PM May kind-of captured the spirit of the BREXIT negotiations.

Now with Italy on the ropes and Portugal as well as Spain hinting that they too want to revise their budgets, as Merkel falls, many believe that Austerity will go with her. The chaos of Europe is just on the horizon. It would be extremely interesting if BREXIT were to be signed on November 21st, 2018. That would be an incredible event and without a clean break, it may be the event that takes Britain down with the EU. So far, Raab has been forced to backtrack once that letter became public

Nov 1 2018

How Politicians Are Creating the Worst Economic Crash in History


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Nov 1, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Politicians have totally and completely misunderstood the trends within the global economy and as a result, they are actually creating one of the worst economic debacles in history. I have explained several times that the bulk of investment capital is tied up in two primary sectors – (1) government bonds and (2) real estate. Because of income taxes, real estate has offered a way to make money in capital gains without having to pay income taxes. Money has looked to park in real estate around the world for many various different reasons as in Italy was the escape from inheritance taxes as well as banks or in Vancouver to gain a foothold for residency fleeing Hong Kong. In Australia, there was the Super Annuation Fund which allowed people to use retirement funds for real estate. In New Zealand, the new government wanted to declare foreign investment just illegal and in Australia, they made it a criminal act for a foreigner to own property and not inform the government they were foreigners. Over in London, they imposed taxes on property which created a crash.

People spend more when they believe that they have big profits in their home. The recession of 2007-2010 was so bad recording the worst of all declines since the Great Depression all BECAUSE it undermined the real estate values. People then spent less because they viewed their home declined in value. As taxes have been rising and the average home value collapsed, the velocity of money kept declining. Especially as real estate values declined and interest on savings accounts vanished hurting the elderly who saved money for retirement and discovered their savings were producing less income, the velocity of money just plummeted. The velocity of money began to turn up finally in the USA ONLY when interest rates began to rise. The retired could suddenly begin to make something on the savings for one in a very long time. This is something the ECB still has not figured out in Europe as it has wiped out both the elderly savings along with pension funds.

The USA targeted only New York and Miami requiring that title companies pierce corporate veils to discover who was really behind what. They did not impose taxes only on foreigners nor did they outlaw foreign ownership of property. This is also why the high-end market recovered, just not the average home on the street. Nonetheless, polit6icians have gone nuts imposing all sorts of regulations to outright making it a criminal act for a foreigner to buy property. What they are clueless about is this undermining of the real estate market viewing foreign buyers as evil, is undermining real estate as a whole and that is what creates the worst economic decline in history. This undermines the banking system that has used real estate as collateral for mortgages and it undermines consumer spending because people save more when their property declines.

The politicians are actually creating the worse possible scenario for the economy going forward. Welcome to the new face of stupidity. They are so out there that it is like they are sitting on a branch of a tree and cutting the branch expecting the tree to fall. This is what they have done to real estate which makes even what Goldman Sachs did in 2007 child’s play.

Now add government borrowing which completes against the private sector and it only gets even more stupid.  Then we have brain-dead investors who actually think government debt is “quality” when they have ZERO intentions of ever paying off their debt at any point in the future. Governments borrow year after year with no understanding what they are doing to the entire economy and how they are causing unemployment to rise with ever more taxes and more borrowing completing with the private sector on every level.

Then society elects people with absolutely ZERO business experience who in turn appoint academics who have wonderful theories that have never proven to have worked even once! And people wonder hy I say they will never listen to prevent a crisis so we have no coince but wait for the Crash & Burn.

 

Oct 30 2018

Merkel Has been the Face of Europe – So Get Ready!!!!


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

Merkel has been the face of Europe – good, bad, or indifferent. Germany has been the major economy in Europe with France a distant second. We must understand that the fate of the Euro hinges on this position of Merkel. She has been a staunch supporter of austerity and the Green and AfD are rising BECAUSE of Merkel’s immigration policy. Instead of recognizing she may a major mistake and address it instantly, she has done the typical politician maneuver – blame everyone else and deny it was her policy at fault.

 

 

I cannot stress enough that the political instability within Europe, is a critical factor behind the capital flows that can push the dollar to unbelievable highs. Our unique capital flows analysis which we invented is backed by raw data which is contributed from proprietary sources worldwide which allow us to really see the trends without opinions or myopic domestic analysis. All of these people who keep talking about how the dollar has to crash are so caught up in old world theories that have NEVER been correct and have not just failed their analysis of things such as gold, but they have failed the central bankers on an even grander scale. This is why even central bankers attend the WEC. There is a much higher plane of financial analysis that we must respect and come to grips with BECAUSE we are all in this together. NO politician can even pretend to be in charge of the economy and make promises that are far beyond their control because NOBODY can go against the global trend. PLAIN & SIMPLE!!!!!!!

A special report is going out this week for the attendees of the WEC. This is on the Economic Confidence Model and the major November 2018 Convergence that is on our doorstep. The consolidation is about to end. So buckle up – we will be on our way to something really extraordinary that no domestic analysis will ever see coming.

In that respect, it will be like the 1987 Crash that was caused by external factors that never appeared in domestic numbers or analysis. It was so significant, that is when the Presidential Commission was compelled to request all our international research to understand how external factors overpower domestic.

So welcome of 2018. This is going to be a lot of fun to watch. Better than any movie, TV show that’s for sure!

Oct 29 2018

Merkel to Step Down as Leader of CDU


Armstrong Economics Blog/Euro €

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

We ABSOLUTELY must understand that Merkel is on her way out and she has been the face of the entire European Union. This is incredibly important for it WILL ultimately undermine the Euro itself. Keep in mind that the entire play within Euroland has been to buy the Bunds and sell just about everything else. The primary reason has been the prevailing view that if the Euro collapses, then owning German bonds means you will get back Deutschmarks.

After the Hesse elections, German politics is like watching paint dry. We know the end result, it is just painfully slow to get there because it just takes time. Angela Merkel has told her CDU party that she will not run for re-election as its chairwoman in December, sources say. She was really forced into that position after her party has suffered heavy losses in regional elections that threatened the stability of the governing coalition. Merkel has been the chairperson of the CDU since 2000, becoming one of its longest-serving chairpersons in German history. Nonetheless, she has led Germany as chancellor since 2005 and will not resign without, according to inside sources in Germany, being dragged out by her hair are very real. She has tasted power and that is very hard to walk away from. In her case, that power is virtually being the head of Europe as a whole to the international world.

This is incredibly important because undermining the Euro is what our computer is warning about and that can drive the dollar to all-time record highs breaking the back of the entire world monetary system. Curiously enough, December has been shaping up as a major turning point on the Arrays. We may have just got the explanation why.

Oct 29 2018

Brazilian Election: Nationalist Congressman Jair Bolsonaro Wins Presidency – Another Rebuke of Establishment Politics…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 28, 2018 by

Some have called him the Brazilian Trump, a populist candidate for the presidency. His mantra: “Brazil Above Everything, God Above Everyone”.  The professional political elites who rule within international circles have been throwing every attack possible at candidate Jair Bolsonaro.

Two-months-ago his left-wing political opposition stabbed him in the liver in an attempted assassination.  Bolsonaro believes in open market free-trade; Brazil-first nationalism, and protecting the integrity of the Brazillian national identity.

Today he wins the presidency.  The global progressive movement is going bananas…

(Via Associated Press) 7:50pm – Brazil’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal has declared far-right congressman Jair Bolsonaro the next president of Latin America’s biggest country.

With 96 percent of ballots counted, Bolsonaro has 55.5 percent of the votes. Leftist Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party has 44.5 percent.

Voters in Sunday’s runoff election apparently looked past warnings that the brash former army captain would erode democracy and embraced a chance for radical change after years of turmoil.

Bolsonaro went into the election the clear front-runner after getting 46 percent of the votes to Haddad’s 29 percent in the first round of the election Oct. 7.

After opinion polls in recent weeks had Bolsonaro leading by as much as 18 percentage points, the race had tightened in recent days. But Haddad was unable to make up the difference.  (read more)

The video embedded within the tweet below shows the assassination attack when Bolsonaro was stabbed in the liver.  Horrific.

BasedPoland @BasedPoland

Bolsonaro’s win today is another rebuke to the globalist system of elite central planning authority controlled by multinationals.

ian bremmer

✔ @ianbremmer

Oct 29 2018

Europe & Risk of Revolution


Armstrong Economics Blog/Civil Unrest

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Thank you, Mr Armstrong, for your lifetime work. mindblowing as always.
I picture Europe now as Greece during the Roman Republic (before its conquest). isolated, corrupted to the core. And the US as the new Roman Republic. Will it become an empire after 2032?
Marius was the man of the people and in the end, he was defeated by Sylla (Senate if I m correct). But Marius’ idea was carried on by Cesar. Was he a socialist before the hour?
as a European, which side is the safest to pick when we will be dragged in the conflict???
thanks again!

best regards from France

ANSWER: Ironically, people may think history is just the past. The next time you watch Star Wars, look closer. It is about this very struggle of the people versus the Empire. Instead of swords, they fight with laser swords. If you look at the royal guard, they had cloaks and helmets much as the Romans were dressed. This is actually a saga that is repeated time and again throughout history. Pericles in Athens was charged and put on trial as they are trying to do with Trump. Today, we call it the Deep States. In Roman times, Caesar fought against the corrupt Senate who was the political party known as the Optimates.

You are correct, Marius lost. His coins refected the anti-establishment. You can see the female head of Italia, for which he was fighting. Caesar’s reputation has been distorted by the corrupt Optimates such as Cato and Cicero. Caesar was a man of the people, not a socialist, just an anti-establishment from the perspective of corruption. He too had to flee Rome under the dictatorship of Sulla who would have killed him much as Stalin killed anyone who might oppose him.

The aspect of Europe is the total failure to really integrate the 28 member states. It is effectively a dictatorship without accepting the responsibilities. The EU dictates what the budgets should be of each member under the pretense of maintaining the Euro. The USA does not have that structure. The Feds, nor the Federal Reserve, care about the budgets of each 50 state. This is what I mean that the failure to consolidate the debts from the outset has created a dictatorship. The good news is that the EU has no central power as of yet to militarily invade a member who refuses to comply. In the case of Europe, it is extremely vulnerable to a complete collapse because the member states still retained even their own central banks. The EU could call upon some states to provide it with troops to invade another. But that is tenuous at best as the lack of confidence in the central EU government is gradually collapsing.

Oct 29 2018

Hesse German Election – Merkel’s CDU Loses Significantly


Armstrong Economics Blog/Germany

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

 

Both the SPD and the CDU have suffered serious major losses in the state elections in Hesse. The CDU and SPD have accepted the expected clear defeat where they lost some 10% of the votes compared to the last election and it is really all about the Refugee issue. The Greens have won sharply as many people also were afraid of the AfD. But they had to vote for someone and they turned to the Greens. The AfD, meanwhile, gained 12.6% of the votes in Hesse, which is a state that is home to six million people and the German capital of finance, Frankfurt am Main. The polls look to be as follows:

  • CDU: 27.8%  down from  38.3% (2013)
  • SPD: 19.9% down from 30.7% (2013)
  • Green: 19.8% up from 11.1% (2013)
  • AfD: 12.6% up from 4% (2013)
  • FDP: 7.6% up from 5.0% (2013)
  • Left Party: 6.6% up from  5.2% (2013)

This is confirming that the Trump Revolution is still in play. That does not mean others are supporting Trump. It simply means that whoever is in power is being thrown out of office. Unfortunately, the way German politics works, they can form a coalition to rule despite the fact that what they stand for are completely opposite positions. So a coalition of the black-green coalition and an alliance with the CDU is possible, but this would be extremely vulnerable and narrow. A CDU and Greens coalition would produce 56 seats out of 110. They really need a coalition of the Greens with both the CDU and SPD making it a black-green-red government with 63 seats out of 125.

What is very clear is that the rising discontent with the entire refugee crisis may yet bring Merkel down and the entire EU, if they do not wake up and admit a serious mistake, has been made

Oct 28 2018

Can Merkel Survive the Hesse Election?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Uncategorized

Re-Posted Oct 28, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Merkel remains the face of Europe outside of the continent and the risk of Merkel losing the Chancellorship will be a serious crack in the confidence of the Euro. The Hesse election is now taking place and what is at risk here is Chancellor Angela Merkel and her grand coalition. The voters will decide Sunday whether Merkel’s supporters will survive politically. What is at stake is the future of the CDU itself and possibly also her SPD colleague. With the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the socialistic ideas of the SPD, the SPD is coming to the conclusion that they see no future in maintaining the coalition with Merkel’s CDU. Following the Bavarian election two weeks ago, the rise of the AfD has placed Markel at risk. The Bavarian election turned out to be truly a referendum on the CSU’s anti-Merkel position in Germany. Under pressure from the nativist AfD, the CSU chose to imitate the far-right party’s anti-immigrant and anti-European rhetoric to win with whatever lies it would take. The coalition is breaking apart and a loss in Hesse may see political change in Germany before the end of November.

There is a rising view that Merkel has to go because of her immigrate/refugee policy that has undermined not just Germany, but the entire EU as a whole. A loss for the CDU in Hesse will most likely put pressure on Merkel to step down. In the CDU talk is that the Secretary-General Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer has the best chances for succession. Ironically, Kramp-Karrenbauer does not want to be endorsed by Merkel as the talk behind the curtain goes. The fear is that Merkel has perhaps less the 20% support among Germans in general and that can be toxic for anyone she would endorse as her heir. Some are claiming that Merkel can still prevail. Other say she would have to be dragged out by her hair before she would relinquish he political position. Meanwhile, the Euro hangs in the balance

Oct 27 2018

Is it the Elections or Interest Rates?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates

Re-Posted Oct 27, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Dear Marty,
Thanks for the continuous enlightening blogs about increasing interest rates and its effects on EM’s and others.
Today on Bloomberg , they were discussing that the earlier 60:40 Equity bond correlation is breaking down and now it’s 100:0 i.e. both go up and down together.
If I understand your view correctly , the increasing interest rates is a death knell for the Bond trade/Sovereign Debt but totally opposite for the Equity mkt which might surge as capital flees to Private assets i.e Equity.
Would you care to comment please ?
Thanks again for all that you do and the fresh perspective you provide.
Best Regards,
US
ANSWER: They are misreading the impact of interest rates. It is really a political impact at this time and as we head into the week of 11/05, there is a rising concern because the Gallup Poll shows that the Democrats may take back the House and them everyone assumed they will do everything in their power to overturn everything Trump has done. So international capital is deeply concerned about the Democrats right now.

We are still in this consolidation transition period. Capital is trying to figure out the future and it is very confusing. This analysis you refer to is myopic at best. They ignore worldwide concerns and focus only on domestic issues. Interest rates have been rising since the 4th quarter of 2015. The decline has NOTHING to do with interest rates. They just have to blame something.

Oct 26 2018

Pension Crisis hits Russia


Armstrong Economics Blog/Pension Crisis

Re-Posted Oct 26, 2018 by Martin Armstrong

Vladimir Putin tried to reform Russia’s pensions system which is crumbling as is the case in the West. This giant Ponzi Scheme is collapsing and it has been the heart of Socialism. Putin’s approval rating plummeted this year in the aftermath dropping from 82% in April 2018, dropping to 66% here in October 2018. His decision to reform Russia’s pensions was met with tens of thousands of Russians taking to the streets to protest. This is what we are to expect over the course of the next two years. It is also why the Federal Reserve is desperately trying to gradually raise interest rates in hopes of stabilizing the Pension Crisis.

There is simply NO system that will survive this Pension Crisis because the design was faulty from the outset. The traditional way people took care of their future was to build a family structure. The children took care of the parents. The promises of socialism have relieved the children of such obligations for the government was there. As we begin to witness this crisis unfold, the world financial system will be turned on its head.