Tag Archives: Hunt for Taxes

Oct 30 2017

What Came First? Cultivation or Cities?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read you One-World-Currency report. It was truly fascinating. From an academic perspective, what came first in the formation of civilization; agriculture or cities? Where does money fit into this historical perspective?

Thank you;

FD

ANSWER: There has been a fair amount of assumption that went into the history we were all taught in school. What has emerged since is a different perspective, to say the least! There are megaliths at Göbekli Tepe which were erected by hunter-gatherers around 9000 BC or about 3,000 years before history starts to be recorded. Göbekli Tepe is a stone-age mountain sanctuary. It has turned everything upside down insofar as it was assumed that the city came first and then agriculture. It appears that agriculture came first which enable people to create cities.

Göbekli Tepe proves that there was a shift from animism, a belief that attributes a soul to plants, inanimate objects, and natural phenomena inasmuch as there is some supernatural power that organizes and animates the material universe, to centralized religion. In other words, there was a shift from an egalitarian society all people are equal to a hierarchical society arranged in order of rank. Clearly, there had to be a profound economic change and yes there would have to be some sort of monetary reward in the form of some resource to create such a shift from an egalitarian to a hierarchical society.

Göbekli Tepe is extremely important despite its obscure purpose and meaning. It is not the meaning that we need argue over. The incredible fact is that such a monument was constructed in the first place 9000BC. The simple fact of its existence proves historical assumption dead wrong. It matters not whether these pillars that are carved were some religious rite or just a decoration. More than 200 pillars in about 20 circles are currently known and only 5% of the site has been excavated. The astonishing fact is economic. Producing more than 200 pillars took a lot of man-hours. That means the workers needed a stable food supply and therefore agricultural cultivate MUST have been existence BEFORE cities were carved out of stone.

The construction of Göbekli Tepe would also have required some division of labor among overseers, technicians, and workers and management. Therefore, this required a hierarchical society. Therefore, social development in creating such structures must have precipitated, rather than resulted from, the shift to agriculture.

The assumption was that cities came first and then cultivation. Obviously, you had to feed the people to construct the cities first. My bet is on cultivation came first and food became money. Money moved from food to clothing. We see the first use of metal as money being Bronze imitating a sheepskin, which was the standard of value; i.e. Jason and the Golden Fleece.

Even the early Roman bronze Aes Signatum (5 pounds of bronze) pictures a bull. Cattle were also a main monetary unit of value prior to metal.

Oct 30 2017

Catalonia (Catalunya) – Legal or not Legal


Armstrong Economics Blog/SPAIN

Re-Posted Oct 30, 2017 by Martin Armstrong
There are many who write in from Spain supporting Madrid against Catalonia. The core of their argument is that the call this movement an independent “socialistic movement” and they argue it is not at all but democratic.
“There’s indeed a strong independence feel in Catalunya, they have been like this for centuries although they never really were able to achieve a country status. … But one cannot claim to be democratic if you plan to force a secession with an election attended by less than half the people who can vote. Most people agreed on the national court’s decision that the referendum was illegal and supported the court rule by no attending to vote, they were 58 percent of the registered voters, those who were against the decision were able to vote anyway.”

Catalonia is an autonomous region in north-east Spain with a distinct history dating back almost 1,000 years. It is a wealthy region that has its own language, parliament, flag and national anthem. It also has its own police force and controls some of its public services.

Maximum of Barcelona

Historically, during the 12th century, Catalonia was taken under the same royal rule as the neighboring kingdom of Aragon. Catalonia has been part of Spain since its genesis in the 15th century when King Ferdinand of Aragon and Queen Isabella of Castile married and united their realms. Nevertheless, the history of Barcelonia extends back into ancient time. It was Maximum of Barcelona (409-411AD) who rose up to be independent of the collapsing Roman Empire.

This idea that Catalonia somehow belongs to Madrid in perpetuity is rather strange. Spain itself did not exist as a country until the marriage of Ferdinand & Isabella during the 15th century. There are coins issued in Barcelona which predate Spain. Back in the 11th century, the Iberian peninsula was divided into three kingdoms; (1) Caliphate of Córdoba in Taifa, (2) The kingdoms of Leon, (3) and The Kingdom of Pamplona and the County of Barcelona. Historically, Barcelona was not conquered by the Arabs who dominated most of Spain during the 11th century. From that period onward, Barcelona has always harbored a sense of independence from the rest of the Iberian peninsula.

So why such intensity against Catalonia? On October 27th, 2017, the Catalan parliament declared independence, in a 70-10 vote. That seems to be a clear majority vote. Granted, this came after an independence referendum on October 1st, 2017, in which just under 90% of Catalan voters backed independence, however, turnout was only 43%. That was, in part, because Madrid sent in troops to try to prevent the vote. Now Madrid has called for a new vote after dismissing the Parliament and thus appears to be setting the stage for a rigged election no different than Russia taking Crimea. The West sanctions Russia for such tactics but not Madrid?

The Supreme Court decision is used by Madrid to claim there is no right for Catalonia to separate. That is clearly a violation of human rights and it is the very same argument the King of Britain made against America so I suppose the United States is a totally illegal entity as well. Someone should serve notice to Trump to hand power back to London and surrender.

Oct 29 2017

Clinton Paid to Have the Dossier Created to Try to Discredit Trump


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: I am shocked that the Washington Post has come out and admitted that the Clinton campaign and the DNC paid for research that led to Russia dossier that has been the center of all the investigations even though much of it has been discredited.

REPLY: Welcome to the real world of politics. What they do not understand is this is just one of the reason people voted for Trump. They are sick of government for the government against the people. There is just no “We the People” in their vocabulary.

Previously both John Podesta and former Democratic National Committee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz denied any knowledge of funding for this dossier. Any surprise at that

Oct 29 2017

GREXIT – Will Greece be Better off or Worse?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Greece

Re-Posted Oct 29, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

GREXIT

QUESTION: I just read an article about Grexit and the MoU that expires in the summer of 2018. Let’s assume Greece exits EU and the Euro, what would happen to Greece and it’s people? What hardships would Grexit bring to the Greek people and what could individual Greeks do to prepare themselves for these hardships?

Thanks for your blog.
Greetings from Greece!
Cheers,

J

ANSWER: Things will be much brighter once Greece gets out of the Euro. Brussels is desperately trying to keep Greece in the Eurozone for their survival, not what is best for Greece. The major data is published by various agencies that are directly or dependent upon government and they will always champion staying in the Eurozone. If you look beyond those headlines, you see a different picture. Most of our clients in Britain who were against BREXIT, now report that things are much better. The manufacturing industry experienced a job boom in the last quarter. Compared Q3 2016, the job market data with that for 2017 showed that the manufacturing sector witnessed a 24% increase in advertised vacancies over the past 12 months. Jobs have been created in Britain at a faster pace since the BREXIT vote, despite the headlines of the fake news.

I have explained before that when Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931, they instantly recovered from the Great Depression. This was the case study that George Warren used to demonstrate to Roosevelt that the dollar had to be devalued to reverse the economic decline. Maintaining the gold standard back then was the equivalent of “austerity” imposed upon Europe by Germany. Everyone just gets this whole issue of currency and the Quantity of Money dead wrong. The Austrian School of economics predates the massive government debt era. Today, the government is the biggest borrower within society and they compete against the private sector reducing economic growth.

The refugee crisis alone has devasted Greece. The London Financial Times reported in June that bookings were off as much as 70% for tourists. Greece has to suffer refugees that have devastated its tourist business and that has been one of its primary economic sectors.

Bring on GREXIT and you will stop the refugees as well if they cannot get into the EU by going to Greece. The rest of the EU will not help Greece of Italy pay for these refugees. There is no benefit to remaining in the Eurozone. It is time to slam the door of Brussels.

Oct 28 2017

CNN’s Sketchy Dossier “Reporting”…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 28, 2017 by

Notice how the New York Times and Washington Post are staying away from the CNN story about the upcoming Robert Mueller indictments.  There’s a good reason for that…

….Things That Make Other Things Make Sense:

Back January 10th, 2017, when CNN first began emphasizing the Russian Dossier and how it related to the ‘vast Russian conspiracy’ CTH knew from the way it was being pitched that something was sketchy about CNN’s reporting.   It wasn’t just the story they were selling; it was a very specific cast of characters selling it.   We immediately NOTED IT HERE.

Jake Tapper, Jim Scuitto, Evan Perez and Carl Bernstein was the CNN crew assembled to talk about the Clinton/DNC funded -and Fusion GPS contracted- Christopher Steele ‘dossier’.  Evan Perez had some rather sketchy stories in the weeks prior to their January 10th narrative roll out.  Again the back story is important –SEE HERE–

Well, fast forward to now – and today The Daily Caller is reporting that Evan Perez is actually close friends with the people behind Fusion GPS.  VERY close friends. Like, ‘go on vacation together’ type friends:  VERY IMPORTANT READ

DAILY CALLER – CNN’s reporting on the Trump-Russia dossier has left out at least one crucial fact: the close ties between the network and the opposition research firm at the center of the dossier controversy.

CNN’s reporting on the dossier, led by justice correspondent Evan Perez, has been favorable to the firm, Fusion GPS, and hyped the dossier’s credibility. Left out of Perez’s reporting, which has relied largely on unnamed sources, is his personal closeness to Fusion GPS’ operatives. (continue reading)

The Plot Thickens:

Read Gateway Pundit Story HERE

Oct 28 2017

Lessons in Swamp Manuevers: Trump -vs- Clinton -vs- Mueller -vs- Sessions -vs- Rosenstein -vs- Comey, etc.


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 27, 2017 by

The leak from a sealed grand jury indictment within the special counsel Robert Mueller investigation, writ large, has everyone a-twitter…  Perhaps, a reminder is in order.

First lesson from the DC Swamp – Everything is about politics.  It’s not about the law; it’s not about the judiciary; it’s not about what’s legal, or the illegality of behavior;  only politics.  These are not legal issues, the entities involved are not connected to legal or illegal application of laws as they relate to the rest of American society.

You cannot view the current action through the transactional prism of modern judicial proceedings as they relate to you and me. These are political cases, that use the venue of the legal system.  They use the legal system to play out the optics and narrative of political battles for ideological wins and losses.

The closest reminder you might have familiarity with would be the case against George Zimmerman (never about the legal system); or the case against officer Darren Wilson; again it was never about the legal system.  Those were political cases run through the matrix of the legal system.  So too is this entire DC partisan dysfunctional investigative construct -surrounding all of the current DC cases- not about the application of law, it is about politics. Period.

The notification from the FBI through the DOJ to allow the unknown 2010 FBI witness to testify to congress about the Uranium One investigation has initiated a responsive action from Robert Mueller to save and use his political leverage.  This is not about laws broken; this is about political leverage to be retained.

The gamesmanship currently being pitched through the media is about political leverage.  That leverage in DC is traded like baseball cards amid the upper tier of those who float in an entirely divergent orbit from everyone else.

Repeat: this is not about law. It’s about politics.

If Mueller waited any longer to construct his political cases against those he is investigating he would open himself up to scrutiny from within his attachment to the Uranium One deal.

If the mystery FBI witness testified to congress before Mueller announced an indictment it would look like Mueller was retaliating against that testimony.  So Mueller plays the hand he’s carrying.

Now, by going first, regardless of the testimony from the FBI witness, any negative outcome therein would look like retaliation against him for indictments announced prior to the testimony.

See how that works?

Remember, this is not about laws, lawfulness, or the judicial system.  These participants operate above that system.  They are in a political system above the law; they use the landscape of the judicial system to advance politics.  Pause and repeat as needed.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller is simply attempting to retain his leverage within the game.  Going first allows him to keep and use that leverage.  If Mueller had waited he would have lost that leverage.

Congress has now lost leverage.  Regardless of what the FBI informant says to them regarding the Uranium One deal it is useless against the optic of retaliation for the special counsel investigation.

Conversely, those who were getting sick and tired of this investigation dragging on also know how the game is played.  They knew if they brought in the angle of the FBI informant it would force Mueller to act fast.  Again, this is politics, not legal.

Mueller has protected himself from the leverage congress was assembling and now he has cards to trade for any outcomes therein.  Mueller knew by planting the leak tonight his leverage would have all weekend to grow and establish itself through the media.

This is the exact same hand James Comey played when he intentionally leaked his memo notes to the New York Times right before he was fired.  Comey was losing leverage; Comey needed to gain back leverage to protect his interests.

Changing and trading leverage is politics.

Establish enough leverage and you can break any law with impunity.

Nothing more.

Enjoy your weekend….

 

Oct 28 2017

CIA & FBI Still Stalling on JFK Documents – Why?


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics

Re-Posted Oct 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The CIA and FBI have had 50 years to go over these documents. Nevertheless, they waited to the last day to object. That tactic was deliberate to push Trump into a corner. He gave them six months to review. Many of the documents listed as “classified” are not even legible, raising more concerns that these have been deliberately altered to protect someone or something.

At this point, no matter what they release, still 60%+ of American will just not believe them. After 50 years to go by and claiming they are still a danger to “survivors” is an absolute joke. The files released also show intense defense by both the CIA and FBI to claim they had nothing to do with anything. That simply brings to mind Shakespeare. Hamlet then turns to his mother and asks her, “Madam, how like you this play?”, to which she replies “The lady doth protest too much, methinks.” Indeed, the CIA and FBI seem to protest too much asserting their innocence in this affair.

It is also clear from documents that the CIA questioned the official storyline of the assassination in the years followed. An unnamed CIA author noted in a 1975 memo that the agency, the FBI and the Warren Commission failed to investigate key clues into assassin Lee Harvey Oswald’s ties to Cuba.

Then we have FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover who in a memo dated Nov. 24, 1963, the same day that Oswald was killed by a questionable retribution of Jack Ruby, expressed concern that Oswald’s death would result in uncertainty among U.S. citizens over his guilt.

“The thing I am concerned about, and so is [Deputy Attorney General Nicholas] Katzenbach, is having something issued so that we can convince the public that Oswald is the real assassin,”

Hoover wrote.

At this point, there have been way too many delays and the only reason for that is to protect something or someone. If it were Oswald alone, then why hide documents?

Oct 28 2017

Spain Demonstrates to the World Democracy Means Nothing


Armstrong Economics Blog/SPAIN

Re-Posted Oct 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

 

The Madrid government sacked Catalonia’s president and dismissed its parliament on Friday, hours after the region declared itself an independent nation in Spain’s gravest political crisis since the return of democracy four decades ago. The Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who seems to think he has the power of Franco, called for new elections and fired the Catalan police chief. The crisis in Spain is a reflection of the crisis in the EU as a whole. This unprecedented dictatorial array of measures to seize control of the administration in Barcelona is so undemocratic, it is guaranteed to send warning signals to many other regions of the EU especially Italy.

Oct 27 2017

BREAKING: Grand Jury Approves First Charges in Mueller Investigation…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 27, 2017 by

Washington (CNN) A federal grand jury in Washington, DC, on Friday approved the first charges in the investigation led by special counsel Robert Mueller, according to sources briefed on the matter.

The charges are still sealed under orders from a federal judge. Plans were prepared Friday for anyone charged to be taken into custody as soon as Monday, the sources said. It is unclear what the charges are. A spokesman for the special counsel’s office declined to comment. (read more)

(Article Link) – (Tweet Link)

First wave of arrests to begin on Monday?

 

Oct 27 2017

MAGAnomics – Third Quarter GDP Growth of 3% Exceeds “Economist Expectations”…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on October 27, 2017 by

MAGAnomics is a generally common sense approach toward achieving dynamic growth in the U.S. economy.  Left-leaning economic experts (most of them) are gnashing their teeth as the America-First MAGAnomic principles are paying YUGE initial dividends.

Reuters News is forced to painfully publish the positive numbers; yet they talk down the economy despite the reality.  Again, using the Reuters information we’ll dig into the economic news, and deconstruct their dismissive ideologically-driven narrative.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. economy unexpectedly maintained a brisk pace of growth in the third quarter as an increase in inventory investment and a smaller trade deficit offset a hurricane-related slowdown in consumer spending and a decline in construction.

♦First, “unexpectedly”. Yeah, it’s always ‘unexpected’ when the results run counter to the preferred outcome.  Notice, “inventory investment”, that’s parseltongue verbiage to describe manufacturing and production infrastructure investment.  It’s not just “inventory” as in “unsold products”, what’s happening is companies are investing in growth and building out production capacity.  The “inventory” is actually equipment (being purchased) and operational infrastructure (being built), two measured GDP values.

♦Second, “smaller trade deficit”. Again, as we noted, the reductions in imports have a doubling impact on GDP growth because imports are deducted from GDP in the economic equation.  If you make a $100 widget in America and don’t import a $100 widget from China, the GDP grows by $200 (the combined value of the produced product and the absence of a deduction for the imported product).  Notice no economic publication is giving Trump credit for the “Made in USA”, America First, policy and promotion.

The economy grew at a 3.1 percent pace in the second quarter. It was the first time since 2014 that it experienced growth of 3 percent or more for two quarters in a row. Economists had forecast GDP increasing at a 2.5 percent rate in the third quarter.

[…]  Post-hurricane labor market, retail sales and industrial production data already show an acceleration in underlying economic activity. Economists expect the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates for a third time this year in December.

“Fed officials will be encouraged by both the overall performance and the composition of growth in the third quarter, which confirms the U.S. economic expansion remains on solid ground,” said Michelle Girard, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets in Stamford, Connecticut.

Of course the Fed will increase rates.  However, FED policy is still disconnected from “Main Street”.   FED policy is focused on inflation.  We are still in the space between two economies, “Wall Street” and “Main Street”.   FED policy is designed around the Wall Street economic model they created over 20+ years.

Remember, the FED had consigned the “Main Street” economy to be a “service driven economy”; it is Trump’s MAGAnomics that has disrupted this design and is bringing back a production and manufacturing economy, a middle-class economy.  As such FED policy needs both time and new leadership to come into synergy with an entirely different set of economic policy initiatives created by President Trump.

[…] Businesses accumulated inventories at a $35.8 billion pace in the third quarter, leading to inventory investment adding 0.73 percentage point to third-quarter GDP growth. Inventories contributed just over a tenth of a percentage point to output in the prior period. Economists expect a modest boost from inventories in the fourth quarter.

These “inventories” include raw material purchases for future products.  Remember, companies are smart… the free market is smart…. production companies know when to forecast higher import prices on any raw material.  Like you, companies will purchase items now that they predict will increase in price later.  This boosts the gross margin when the final product is assembled for sale.

When final product assembly is timed when the domestic economy is ‘hot’, the final product has a higher selling price.  Lower initial purchase costs for raw materials combined with higher selling prices equals bigger profits.  It’s easy peasy business 101.

Though export growth slowed in the last quarter, that was eclipsed by the steepest pace of decline in imports in three years, leaving a smaller trade deficit, which added four-tenths of a percentage point to GDP growth. Trade has contributed to output for three quarters in a row.

Business investment in equipment rose at an 8.6 percent rate, increasing for a fourth straight quarter.

Import purchases dropping, thanks to Trump policy and promotion of ‘Made in USA’ programs, leads to domestic companies buying equipment to ‘Make in USA’.  DUH…

[…]  Growth in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy, slowed to a 2.4 percent rate as hurricanes Harvey and Irma hurt incomes.

Consumer spending rose at a robust 3.3 percent pace in the second quarter and is likely to accelerate in the fourth quarter with a separate report on Friday showing consumer sentiment holding at lofty levels in October.

“Lofty levels”?  Writers at Reuters can’t even give Trump credit for the highest level of consumer confidence in the past 40 years.

Despite the moderation in consumer spending, inflation perked up in the third quarter, likely as a result of disruptions to the supply chain caused by the hurricanes.

They don’t know what kicked up inflation, because they are stuck in their economic paradigms and not recognizing a tighter labor market… leads to increased wages… leads to increased prices… leads to increased inflation on products from within those labor markets.

This next part cracks me up:

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy, increased at a 1.3 percent rate. That followed a 0.9 percent pace of increase in the second quarter.

With inflation rising, income at the disposal of households increased at a 0.6 percent rate, braking sharply from the second-quarter’s strong 3.3 percent pace. (link)

As we have continually stated the FED doesn’t measure ‘highly consumable products’ in their inflation index (ie. food, fuel, energy costs).  These highly consumable products represent the largest part of the expenditures for households.  They are also domestic products.

Trump’s MAGAnomic Main Street (middle-class) policies, as executed with removal of regulation and increases in production etc., are driving down the price of food, fuel, oil and energy – all domestic products.  This lower cost-of-living approach, in conjunction with increased wages as a result of labor market, means a doubling effect on the incomes of middle-class Americans.   Stuff we use a lot costs less and we are simultaneously seeing wage increases.

If it wasn’t for the insufferable ObamaCare, GDP growth would be pushing 4% or higher because we’d have that much more available purchasing power.  However, remaining positive and not getting annoyed by that aspect, this is also why it’s very predictable to see tax reform putting even more spending fuel into your pocket….

All of that will drive GDP well beyond 5%; and when you combine our ability to spend, with U.S. companies making the stuff we want, and again less imports -and you know how imports deduct from GDP growth- well, the totality of it makes 6 or 7% growth seem very plausible….  Which is exactly what Steve Forbes predicted two years ago if Donald Trump became President Trump.