Armstrong Economics Blog/Economics
Posted Jul 27, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong is there any way we can not have inflation. If so how? If not what would you say 5% or more?
S
ANSWER: It all depends on your definition. The type of inflation coming is more STAGFLATIONwhere prices rise due to cost-push (shortages) but there is a declining economic growth. The more familiar inflation is a DEMAND lead event because the economy is booming. Because governments are desperate for money, they keep raising taxes and are increasing enforcement. This trend is DELATIONARY for it reduces disposable income. The INFLATIONARY pressure comes from the rising costs which are set in motion by raising taxes.
Then we add the impact of the climate chaos creating shortages in food and that furthers cost-push inflation. The end result will be the shift from PUBLIC to PRIVATE where people will run away from government debt on all levels and move to tangible assets to survive.
Are Some Property Funds Being Suspended in London?
Armstrong Economics Blog/Real Estate
Re-Posted Jul 25, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The collapse in property values in London has created a crisis in property funds. M&G Investments blocked withdrawals from its UK property fund as it seeks to distance itself from the troubled manager. Back on June 3, 2019, the asset manager wrote to clients of the M&G UK Property fund to inform them it had placed a temporary restriction on customers from taking out their money for up to six months. Restrictions were also placed on certain withdrawals from the Prudential UK Property fund, which feeds into the M&G fund affected about 65% of customers in the fund. Both funds were only available for long-term institutional investors such as pension funds and the total under management was around £636m in assets while the Prudential Fund had about £50m.
The real estate funds are going to be the worst since they tend to be illiquid.
Black Vests Storm Paris
Armstrong Economics Blog/France
Re-Posted Jul 24, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The Black Vests are rising up in France. This group is composed of undocumented Africans who are in France and demanding to stay. Hundreds of these undocumented migrants stormed the Panthéon in Paris and demanded the right to remain in France. They are primarily from West Africa and managed to get in pretending to be refugees from Syria. They call themselves the “black vests,” which is a reference to the yellow vest protest movement that spread through much of France earlier this year.
Boris Johnson Wins Britain Right on Target
Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN
Re-Posted Jul 24, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
Boris Johnson has been elected as the new Prime Minister of Britain and he has promised to take Britain out of the European Union “come what may.” Jeremy Corbyn says Labour will table a motion of no confidence, designed to force Boris Johnson from office “at a time of (their) choosing,” adding “it will be an interesting surprise for all of you.” That is the main concern that if Labor gets a hold of the government, Britain will see a massive exit of capital and Corbyn will single handedly destroy the British economy, which has been the concern behind in the decline in the pound sterling.
Boris Johnson beat Jeremy Hunt in the battle for the leadership of Britain’s governing Conservative Party winning 66% of the vote. Although the Conservatives’ working majority in Parliament is very small, it appears to be enough to ensure that Mr. Johnson will succeed Mrs. May as prime minister and Labor will not be able to stop that at this point in time.
What is very interesting is that our computer gave us two targets — May and July 2019. Prime Minister Theresa May said she would step down as leader of the Conservative Party and then as prime minister after repeatedly failing to get her Brexit plan through Parliament on May 24th, 2019. The next target was July, and here we have Boris Johnson elected. Now we are looking at October and December going into year-end.
Europe’s Debt: America’s Crisis – Full Video
President Trump Remarks During Oval Office Swearing-In Ceremony – Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper…
July 23, 2019
This evening President Trump delivered remarks during the swearing-in ceremony for newly appointed Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper. [Video and Transcript] The Senate voted 90-to-8 easily confirming Secretary Esper.
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[Transcript] – THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much everybody. We have a very important moment in our country’s history, actually. And we had a lot of our great Republican senators in the White House, and I invited them over and many of them wanted to be here. And as you probably heard, the vote just took place, and it was 90 to 8. That’s a vote that we’re not accustomed to, Mark, I have to say that. So congratulations, that’s great.
But I’m honored to be here today for the swearing-in of our new Secretary of Defense, Mark T. Esper. I especially want to thank Justice Samuel Alito — highly respected and a great gentleman, a great man — for joining us to administer the Oath of Office. Thank you very much. Thank you, Sam.
We’re also delighted to welcome several of Secretary Esper’s family members and friends to the White House today, including his mother, Polly. Hi, Polly. (Laughter.) Boy, are you proud of him, Polly? You better believe it. Yeah. (Laughter.) His wife, Leah. Thank you, Leah, very much. And his three children — Luke, John, and Kathryn. Thank you very much. Congratulations, too, most importantly. Congratulations. That’s an incredible thing.
There is no one more qualified to lead the Department of Defense than Mark Esper. A West Point graduate — great student, actually — Secretary Esper served our military for 21 years, including in the Gulf War. He also advanced U.S. national security in government and in private sector, most recently as Secretary of the Army, where he played a critical role training and equipping our armed forces. That’s where I got to know Mark. And there was nobody that did a better job than Mark and there’s nobody that loves it more than Mark. And thank you very much.
He is a recipient of the Bronze Star and Combat Infantryman Badge. He holds a doctorate in public policy from George Washington University and a master of public administration degree from the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.
I am confident that he will be an outstanding Secretary of Defense. I have absolutely no doubt about it. He is outstanding in every way. And we’re honored to have you aboard. And I would ask Justice Alito, please, to administer the Oath of Office. Thank you. Thank you, Judge.
(The oath is administered.) (Applause.)
THE PRESIDENT: Would you like to say something?
SECRETARY ESPER: Yes, sir, if I may.
THE PRESIDENT: Please.
SECRETARY ESPER: Well, thank you, Mr. President, for your kind words, for your confidence in me, and for this incredible opportunity. And thank you, Justice Alito, for administering the Oath of Office. I really appreciate you being here this afternoon.
I’d also like to Senate — to thank the Senate Armed Services Committee for its quick action on my nomination and for the strong bipartisan support that I received today from the entire United States Senate.
It is an honor of a lifetime to be appointed Secretary of Defense and to lead the greatest military in history. And I will do so with that same energy and commitment to duty, honor, and country that I have for nearly four decades since my early days at West Point.
Mr. President, it is a privilege for me and for my family to be here with you today. Thank you for your leadership and for your commitment to a strong national defense and to all of our service members. Our military has made tremendous gains in recent years thanks to your leadership and we stand ready today to take on any challenge.
And while our soldiers, sailors, airmen, and Marines stand guard each and every day, we will ensure their families are well taken care of.
On a personal note, I would like to thank my wife, Leah, who has been by my side now for 30 years as a military spouse herself; my children, Luke, John, and Kate; my mother, Polly; my in-laws, Tom and Von; and my sisters who join me here today. And everybody else who has been a steadfast supporter of me over the years.
Again, thank you, Mr. President, for allowing me to serve our great country once again, as Secretary of Defense. Thank you, sir. (Applause.)
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Mark. Congratulations.
SECRETARY ESPER: Thank you.
THE PRESIDENT: Fantastic. Proud of you. Come on over here.
SECRETARY ESPER: Okay. Leah?
(A certificate is presented.)
THE PRESIDENT: He’s going to be a great one. Thank you very much.
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Milton Friedman Speaks – Myths That Conceal Reality
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Boris Johnson Wins Party Vote Becomes Newest British Prime Minister…
Boris Johnson has succeeded in beating his nearest rival Jeremy Hunt for leadership of the conservative party in the U.K. thereby becoming the next Prime Minister. One of the priority challenges for Prime Minister Johnson will be navigating a successful Brexit.
A full three years after the British electorate voted to leave the European Union, the elites in Britain have continued to stymie the referendum in their effort to remain attached to the communal values of the collective society. Thus gave rapid rise, recently, to the Brexit Party as a national force led by Nigel Farage. It’s the UK version of ‘deplorables’ vs ‘elites’.
The British Parliament is filled with elected members who stand in opposition to the majority of the British citizenry. It is amid this professionally political and elitist disconnect that Boris Johnson must now attempt to deliver Brexit, while the purchased politicians of both institutional parties will oppose his effort. [Sound familiar?]
London (AFP) – Boris Johnson won the race to become Britain’s next prime minister on Tuesday, heading straight into a confrontation over Brexit with Brussels and parliament, as well as a tense diplomatic stand-off with Iran.
The former London mayor easily beat his rival, Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt, in a vote of grassroots members of the governing Conservative Party.
He is expected to be confirmed as prime minister on Wednesday when Theresa May formally tenders her resignation to Queen Elizabeth II.
US President Donald Trump was the first world leader to offer his congratulations, saying: “He will be great!”
It is a triumph for a man who has always coveted the premiership. But Johnson, known for his jokes and bluster, is taking over at a time of immense political upheaval.
Three years after the referendum vote to leave the European Union, Britain remains a member amid continued wrangling in a divided parliament on how to proceed.
– ‘We’ll get Brexit done’ –
Johnson led the referendum “Leave” campaign and — after May delayed Brexit twice — insists the latest deadline must be met, with or without a divorce agreement with the EU.
“We’re going to get Brexit done on October 31,” he declared in a speech to party members in London, after winning 66 percent of almost 140,000 votes cast. (read more)
Here is Johnson’s victory speech. [Prompted, just hit play]
Why Hedge Funds Have Missed the Moves
Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones
Re-Posted Jul 23, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Well, Ray Dalio was short the market, missed the rally, and lost almost 5% for the first half of the year. Obviously, they don’t use Socrates – lol.
LB
REPLY: I do not advise Bridgewater and I have no idea if they even subscribe to Socrates. But what you have to realize is that a lot of these hedge funds form their strategy based upon opinion for the broader view. When you have a portfolio of that size, you cannot simply trade it back and forth for each move. The question becomes critical as to where to draw the line to realize your broadview strategy is wrong.
I have stated many times that the trend does NOT begin to shift until you reach the Monthly Level. We saw that in Gold when it finally got through 1362.50 after nearly four years of bouncing off that number. In the case of the Dow Jones Industrials, our hedging models for institutions were long one month from the low and has remained in that position. This is just a hedging model which is either long or short. It at least tends to keep institutions on the right side of the trend for long periods of time.
Aside from the Reversal System, the Energy Model is extremely helpful in identifying the position of the market and if there is a risk of a crash or a rally. The Energy Model turned negative, demonstrating that there was no possibility of a crash as most analysts were forecasting from a gut perspective. A crash would have been possible ONLY if the Energy Model was at a peak. When it is testing the lows or a negative, it is warning that the energy in the market has already dissipated.
We are simply headed into a Monetary Crisis Cycle where the majority of people will never be able to forecast what will unfold from a personal gut perspective. This is not a time for lucky calls. We need objective time-tested analysis that is not clouded by human bias. This is when we need the global approach to let Socrates simply correlate the world to enable us to see the real trends that are in motion. The worst thing you can do is ASSUME you have missed something, as that is typically the kiss of death for investors where they inevitably buy the high or sell the low.
Centinel2012 