Forecasts & the ECM


Armstrong Economics Blog/ECM Re-Posted Jun 23, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Hello,
I remember you writing more than once last fall that the week of Nov 9th was targeted by the computer for something significant. That week was the elections, which I think everyone focused on. However, FTX also collapsed that week, which is pretty significant. You have yet to take credit for this great prediction.
Thank you so much for your work, you are a true humanitarian.
Respectfully submitted,
SL

REPLY: These forecasts are not my personal opinion. There are just so many such forecasts it becomes overwhelming to try to point out every single one when the model is covering the entire world. I am working diligently to do the book on the Economic Confidence Model and all I can hope is that with a track record of such forecasts since the 1970s, just maybe, people will open their eyes and understand we cannot manipulate society for political gain when we are all connected. No politicians can eliminate unemployment when the world is in a depression.

I am trying to document the turning points historically. I have gathered all the people who have discovered cycles in EVERY field. Only is economics has cycles been rejected because economists and politicians want to pretend they can manipulate the world. That is what Klaus Schwab is trying to do right now.

I hope to have this book out with the first edition for the attendees of the WEC com November.

2024


Posted originally on the CTH on June 20, 2023 | Sundance 

We are inside every facility, every institution, every meeting, every moment of their existence – and we notice everything. We are there when they do not expect, and we melt away before they notice our appearance. We see what they hide, we hear what they whisper, we decipher their codes, and we understand the complexity they create in their effort to conceal.

Quit worrying!

World Events


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Events Re-Posted Jun 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

GREAT POINT by Lee Smith – The FBI May Not Be Burying the Evidence Against Joe Biden, The FBI May be Using it as Leverage Against the White House


Posted originally on the CTH on June 17, 2023 | Sundance 

In this podcast interview between former HPSCI Chairman Devin Nunes and journalists Margot Cleveland and Lee Smith, the discussion begins with the recent revelations provided by Senator Chuck Grassley about audio tapes as evidence in the Biden bribery scandal. {Direct Rumble Link}

As the story has unfolded, the Confidential Human Source who tipped off the FBI to Joe Biden taking bribes from foreign governments, also claims to have audio tapes of himself talking to Joe Biden about the issues when Biden was vice-president.  The FBI has been sitting on this Biden bribery knowledge for multiple years.

The most common opinion of the FBI motive was their intent to burying or capture negative information about Biden.  However, with the institutional corruption of the domestic national security apparatus being very visible within DOJ and FBI, Lee Smith ponders whether the FBI/DOJ might be holding back the Biden bribery material as part of their leverage against the White House.  It is an interesting angle to consider. WATCH:

Lee Smith is very wise in the ways of the Deep State.

It Begins, DOJ Files Motion to Limit President Trump’s Ability to Defend Himself


Posted originally on the CTH on June 17, 2023 | Sundance 

One of the ways you can immediately detect federal Lawfare deployment is to look at how media articles are written when they outline court filings without direct citation for review.  The Hill began SEE HERE. The New York Times is similar, SEE HERE.

Notice both national publications talk about a DOJ court filing, presumably made under seal, that limits President Trump’s defense access to materials and documents used in the case against him.  Notice the media do not say how they gained insight into the details of the sealed filing itself; nor do they provide any source context for how their reporting is structured.  Nothing like, “according to sources with familiar with the matter” or anything similar. Just nothing; no attribution at all.

That media context is a BIG red flag indicating the need to ‘create a narrative’ is more important than the actual substance of the evidence material underpinning it.

Both stories hit on the issue of the DOJ filing a (presumably sealed) motion with the Florida court, to place limits, rules and restrictions on evidence against President Trump, that limits his ability to review it, talk about it and/or provide context for it.  THIS IS A LAWFARE MOVE.  This is what happens in the prosecutorial star-chambers where they hide information in order to create the appearance of something nefarious, where nothing nefarious exists.

When we see this legal approach, we can be assured the case that uses the evidence is built upon fraud and pretense.  Do not be afraid to tell your family, friends and others about this dynamic.  President Trump is being accused of the crime of violating 18 U.S. Code § 793(e) – Gathering, transmitting or losing defense information, a violation of the espionage act, and the DOJ is requesting that President Trump must not permitted to defend himself by discussing the evidence against him.

The DOJ wants to limit public knowledge of the material evidence, not because it would harm national security – but rather because the nature of the evidence itself would highlight to the nation how fraudulent the targeting is.  This is the guaranteed DOJ motive, that’s why everything is under seal and even the media will not talk about how they are gaining their leak knowledge.  This is LAWFARE narrative engineering at its apex deployment.

WASHINGTON DC – The Justice Department on Friday filed a motion seeking to block former President Trump from releasing any classified materials that will be shared with his legal team during his prosecution for the mishandling of records at Mar-a-Lago, noting that some are still being used in the course of their investigation.

The documents “include information pertaining to ongoing investigations” which could be used to further cases against uncharged individuals, the Department of Justice (DOJ) wrote.

The suggested protective order, which will be reviewed by Judge Bruce Reinhart, would allow Trump to review the 31 documents the DOJ is using in the case only while in the presence of his attorneys.

“Defendants shall only have access to Discovery Materials under the direct supervision of Defense Counsel or a member of Defense Counsel’s staff. Defendants shall not retain copies of Discovery Material. Defendants may take notes regarding Discovery Materials, but such notes shall be stored securely by Defense Counsel,” the DOJ wrote.

It also includes similar language to a protective order agreed to in another Trump case that bars the former president from disclosing evidence in the case. New York state prosecutors made that request as they pursue a 34-count indictment of Trump relating to a hush money scandal.

“The Discovery Materials, along with any information derived therefrom, shall not be disclosed to the public or the news media, or disseminated on any news or social media platform, without prior notice to and consent of the United States or approval of the Court,” the department wrote. (read more)

Watch this interview with Devin Nunes and Kimbery Guilfoyle – Start at 06:40 listening to Nunes:

I am correct about the documents grabbed.

I am correct about the nature of the DOJ/FBI intentions and motives.

I am correct about the Lawfare manipulation of the material to present the illusion of illegal where nothing illegal is taking place…

…and I am increasingly certain that Mary McCord is part of TEAM Jack Smith!

Wait for it!

The first two defense approaches will likely be: (1) the Presidential Records Act supersedes the issues of document holding as noted in the use of the Espionage Act. (2) However, if the Espionage Act [Statute 793(e)] has to be defended, the originating issue of “unauthorized possession” will be the second approach heading to the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals.

Some baselines are needed to understand what is happening.

First, the National Archives and the DOJ did not demand a return of Classified Documents.  They requested a return of documents containing classification markings.  These are two entirely different things.

Most documents containing classification markings are not classified documents; yet, most classified documents contain classification markings.  Additionally, one of the documents used by Jack Smith in his indictment [COUNT #11] contained no markings at all.

Second, it is critically important to remember that throughout the legal issues in the aftermath of the Mar-a-Lago raid, the DOJ has viciously denied any responsibility to describe the classified documents they claim to have retrieved.  In fact, the DOJ has fought against any entity, including the court appointed “special master”, from being able to look at the documents the DOJ *previously* claimed were either classified, or, vital to national security. {GO DEEP}

Because there is a very specific type of Lawfare taking place with words, it is critical to see the value in what former HPSCI Chairman Devin Nunes has stated about the way the language is being deployed.   Now we turn to the testimony of the national archivist office, and here is where it gets really interesting.

♦ During testimony to the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA) officials were asked specifically about Trump documents and how they could *KNOW* fulsome return of documents had not taken place.  The response from the NARA officials is enlightening:

[Source pdf, testimony transcript – page 43 and 44]

Notice that NARA had knowledge these documents were in the possession of Trump and were pertinent to their archive retrieval.  It was interesting at the time that NARA would know the content of the President Obama letter, and further interesting they would know there was more than one piece of correspondence between President Trump and Chairman Kim [Jong-un].  CNN even wrote about it HERE.

[Irrelevant note: Mr Bonsanko got the name wrong, Jong-il is dead]

Reminder, keep in mind the DOJ ferocity in not wanting anyone to know what documents they retrieved and/or defined.

We know, from President Trump describing the letter left to him by the former president, that Obama told Trump in the letter that the number one foreign policy and intelligence threat perceived by Obama (at the time of his exit) was a nuclear armed North Korea.  This is where you overlay the Jack Smith writing in the indictment of national defense secrets and nuclear security issues.

We know, from President Trump speaking publicly about his communication and diplomacy with Chairman Kim Jong-un, that the two leaders exchanged letters relating to aligned national security interests that centered around DPRK nuclear ambitions and status.

Trump and Kim formed a geopolitical truce, a friendship of sorts, based on respect and trust around the nuclear issue.  Chairman Kim decreased hostilities; President Trump no longer used inflammatory language about “Little Rocket Man.”  A diplomatic détente was created.

NARA was looking for the letter written by Obama that described DPRK nukes, and NARA was looking for letters between Trump and Kim that touched on DPRK nukes.

Now, does the wording in the Jack Smith indictment that pertains to “nuclear concerns” and “national security matters” make more sense?

Would all of this “nuclear national defense” hullaballoo really stem from President Trump not giving up personal letters written to him by President Obama and Chairman Kim?  YES!  Would President Trump even characterize those letters as government property?  NO!

♦ The indictment accuses President Trump of withholding documents containing “classified markings,” a very specifically deployed obtuse wording intended to create the implication of something nefarious where nothing nefarious exists.  It is entirely possible for a person, any person, especially a person who follows the news, to possess documents containing “classified markings.”

[SOURCE page 41]

There is a big difference between a classified document and a document containing classified markings.  As an example, anyone who has looked at the Carter Page FISA application, made public in July 2018, has reviewed a document containing “classified markings.”  When a document is declassified, they do not remove the markings.

This language is the underpinning of the entire DOJ/FBI framework that predicated the raid on Mar-a-Lago.   Specifically, neither NARA nor the DOJ-NSD requested President Trump or his team to return Classified Documents.  The DOJ demanded the return of any documents that contained “classified markings.” [SEE BELOW]

[Indictment Source, page 4]

Because the verbiage is so intentionally obtuse (ie. Lawfare), a fulsome production in compliance with this DOJ demand would include any newspaper or magazine articles that had a picture of the Carter Page FISA application, or any printed online article that might contain the same or similar elements.  There is a big difference between asking for a classified document return, and asking for a return of documents that contain “classified markings.”

Can you see the way it unfolds?   Of course, when you apply the Lawfare lingo, an approach entirely based on maintaining the targeting of Trump, then suddenly the seemingly innocuous becomes horribly nefarious.

In order to pull this off two things would be needed: (1) the DOJ would need to write about it in a certain way in the indictment√; and (2) simultaneously, the DOJ would need to stop anyone from viewing the actual documents, as they misleadingly described them√.  Hey, wait… that’s exactly what they did.

♦ In a previous court ruling by the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, the court ruled in favor of the U.S. Dept of Justice – National Security Division (DOJ-NSD), and blocked the lower court order instructing a Special Master to review the DOJ claimed, “classified documents.” [pdf Ruling Here]

Essentially the order of the appellate court was based on the DOJ defining Trump’s Mar-a-Lago documents as “classified” and “vital to national security”, and the court’s determination said they have no authority to question the decision of the executive branch when it comes to how they DEFINE matters of national security.

The court (judicial branch) openly stated they defer to the DOJ (executive branch) regarding any/all claims of harm to national security that may be caused by a review of documents the DOJ-NSD determined, on their own authority, to be identified as classified or matters of “national security.”

In the prior opinion of the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, if the DOJ states sharing the “classified documents” with a special master may harm national security, the court must accept that position without challenge and stop the special master review.

The 11th Circuit Court of Appeals did what the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISC) does with the DOJ-NSD and any matters defined by the originating Main Justice officials as “national security.”   The 11th Circuit is deferred to the DOJ.

The DOJ was granted legal benefit of the doubt on all matters of national security, which puts the DOJ-NSD in ultimate control over the star chamber they operate.

This ridiculous ruling meant the DOJ could define any document as a document of “national security interest” and there is no countervailing review of their definitions.  As soon as this decision was reached the DOJ then moved to appoint a special counsel.  Can you see how this works?

With this ruling in his briefcase, Special Counsel Jack Smith could now define the Mar-a-Lago documents according to the legal intention of his targeting.  That’s exactly what he did.  The case against Trump is not a case about classified documents, it is a case about the DOJ defining unilaterally what documents are considered “vital to national security.”

With the DOJ getting to define those documents, the special counsel then moves to claim national security threats created by Trump’s ownership.  The overlay of “vital to the nuclear capabilities of the defense dept,” can then be shifted to include letters from President Obama and Kim Jong-un about DPRK nuclear capabilities.

Stewardship Is an Honor


Posted originally on the CTH on June 17, 2023 | Sundance 

As things clarify in the weeks and months ahead, it is important for me to say something just for this audience.

You are awesome, and it is an honor to be in your association. You guys, and ladies, get it.

You get the big picture of everything that is happening, and you have the innate ability to reconcile the moments and contrast against the larger challenges we all face.

It is my privilege to host this conversation, and I am humbled in the role of steward for our understanding.

Thank you.

I hear from people all the time, many of them we would consider important and influential -in person and in notes, emails and messages – about how smart and wise this audience is in grasping a complexity that is often part of an intentional effort to hide the schemes of those who control the levers of power.

You are the best of America.  Your insight, wisdom, pragmatism, intellect, discernment, stability and ability to apply commonsense amid the intentional constructs of chaos, puts you in a very unique class of thinkers. Your ability to discern context and apply it to events is second to none.

In the whole, we are grounded in faith, prayer, thankfulness, servant-minded and patriotic in disposition.  Despite the chaos, we remain optimistic, joyful and deliberate in purpose.

At this point in our assembly, we have thousands of resources, literally everywhere, digesting information of subject matter expertise and then collating that information into context that are shared in return messages.  Each part contributing to a much larger understanding. It is one of the most incredible and awesome things to be a part of.

As stated before, “We are now inside every facility, every institution, every meeting, every moment of their existence – and we notice everything. We are there when they do not expect, and we melt away before they notice our appearance. We see what they hide, we hear what they whisper, we decipher their codes, and we understand the complexity they create in their effort to conceal.”  From this position, CTH misfits can be confident in saying, quit worrying.

The truth has no agenda, and eventually every deception is revealed.

It is not a prideful disposition; it is a humbled and deliberate sense of purpose that drives our assembly to a larger understanding that can be shared with more people every single day.   Thank you for that.

Carry on!

Steadfast,

~ Sundance

The African Peace Plan is Doomed


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jun 15, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The neocons are the only ones thirsting for a world war. Putin has been pleading for peace or any form of conflict resolution. South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa has been discussing a plan to broker peace between Russia and Ukraine and has called on China’s Xi Jinping for support. The details of the African Peace Plan have yet to be released, but it is backed by South Africa, Uganda, Egypt, Senegal, Zambia, and the Republic of Congo. South Africa is looking for China’s support before presenting the plan to Zelensky.

The war has only exacerbated the issues faced by African nations, as food and fuel prices have soared. “We have been talking about as African leaders because we concluded that that conflict in that part of the world, much as it does not affect Africa directly in the form of deaths and destruction to infrastructure, it does have an impact on the lives of many Africans with regard to food security, the prices of fertilizers have gone up, the prices of cereals have gone up and the prices of fuel,” Ramaphosa said.

South Africa is extremely concerned that the war will affect the BRICS alliance, as is China. No one outside of the neocons of the West wants to enter a global conflict. Other nations have been focusing on economic growth and repairing their economies from the disastrously orchestrated pandemic.

President Xi Jinping commended the initiative by the African continent and acknowledged the impact the conflict has had on human lives and on food security in Africa,” the presidency statement said. The stage has been set with the players on each team now aligning. The nations that do not align with the West are offering Ukraine a last chance to side with them and end this chaos once and for all. The problem is that Zelensky is a puppet of the neocons and has no intention of ending this war, which he is personally profiting on. Russia has also come too far to back down. Is Russia expected to retreat, abandon the territories they deem Russian, and pay billions in reparations to all of the nations who funneled money to Ukraine? It will never happen.

Mike Pence – The Neocon GOP Presidential Candidate


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Jun 12, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

Former Vice President Mike Pence plans to run in the 2024 US Presidential Election with the goal of pushing the nation into a global conflict. Part of his rhetoric is bashing former President Trump for having diplomatic relations with Russia, despite working under him for four years. If elected, Pence said he plans to offer unlimited support to Ukraine to defeat Russia.

Pence criticized Biden’s handling of the war. Unlike DeSantis and Trump who criticized Biden for abandoning America First policies and providing Ukraine with a blank check, Pence believes Biden has not done enough to fight Russian aggression. “Biden has been slow in providing military resources to Ukraine,” Pence stated in a recent CNN town hall interview. At this point, the only thing America has not offered Ukraine is troops directly on the ground. He wants to completely end all diplomatic ties with Russia and expel all Russian diplomats from America.

Although Mike Pence never served in the military, he has spoken at West Point numerous times and told the troops to prepare to fight his coming wars. The Washington Post released an article in 2019 entitled “Mike Pence Predicts War Everywhere in a Few Years.” Here is the alarming speech he gave at West Point in May of that year:

“It is a virtual certainty that you will fight on a battlefield for America at some point in your life. You will lead soldiers in combat. It will happen. Some of you will join the fight against radical Islamic terrorists in Afghanistan and Iraq. Some of you will join the fight on the Korean Peninsula and in the Indo-Pacific, where North Korea continues to threaten the peace, and an increasingly militarized China challenges our presence in the region. Some of you will join the fight in Europe, where an aggressive Russia seeks to redraw international boundaries by force. And some of you may even be called upon to serve in this hemisphere.

And when that day comes, I know you will move to the sound of the guns and do your duty, and you will fight, and you will win. The American people expect nothing less.

So, wherever you’re called, I urge you to take what you learned here and put it into practice. Put your armor on, so that when — not if — that day comes, you’ll be able to stand your ground.”

So this man basically said to prepare for World War III as it was a “virtual certainty” that these men and women would fight a foreign war. Afghanistan, North Korea, Iraq, Russia, China—the potential battles are endless for these bloodthirsty neocons. Pence stifled his warmongering views while working under Trump, but now he admits that he disagreed with the former president all along. He even supports keeping the January 6 protestors behind bars because he knows they would vote for Trump and/or America First policies.

“When Vladimir Putin rolled into Ukraine, the former president called him a genius,” Pence said during his CNN town hall. “I know the difference between a genius and a war criminal, and I know who needs to win in the war in Ukraine, and it’s the people fighting for their freedom and fighting to restore their national sovereignty in Ukraine.” Trump declared he would end the war in 24 hours, whereas Pence would continue the war indefinitely. Pence is regurgitating the neocon propaganda that Putin wants to conquer the world. “Anybody that thinks Vladimir Putin will stop if he overruns Ukraine has what we say back in Indiana ‘another thing coming.’ He has no intention of stopping,” Pence stated, while also using a favorite neocon line of recreating the Soviet Union.

The world would be a dangerous place with the likes of Pence as the POTUS. In fact, he would make Biden’s support for Ukraine look like child’s play. This man wants to go to war with EVERY adversary of America and is willing to send off generations of young men and women to die as his toy soldiers.