The Bank of England All but Admits Recession


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Sep 23, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The Bank of England (BoE) all but admitted the UK is officially in a recession. Bank Governor Andrew Bailey stated weeks ago that there was nothing the central bank could do to prevent a recession at this stage. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise rates by half a percentage point to 2.25%, marking the highest level since 2008. The markets were expecting a 75 bps hike, but the central bank is moving slowly and aiming to avoid panic.

The central bank foresees a 0.1% drop in GDP over the next three months after experiencing a 0.1% decline last quarter. The CPI report for August came in at 9.9%, which is only a slight drop from July’s 10.1% reading. Winter is coming, and that is when the full impact of the energy crisis will be felt. The BoE believes inflation will rise to 11% in October when energy caps are altered. Like the Federal Reserve, the BOE is a long way from its 2% inflation target and relied on QE for far too long.

The dollar’s strength continues to cause a devaluation in sterling as the USD is seen as the last safe haven.

Interview WORLD FIRST: The Plot to Seize Russia, War Propaganda, and More


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 22, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Listen to my latest interview with Maria from Zeee Media.

Description from Maria:

World renowned economist Martin Armstrong joins us to break the story of the several-decade long plan to seize Russia, detailing how he has obtained declassified documents from the Clinton Administration, and how he was previously targeted for possessing this knowledge – which he is finally able to release.

Martin takes us through his encounter with an alleged terrorist from 9/11 while he served in prison, who was actually a Pakistani Christian that was framed by the US Government. We also discuss world events, war propaganda, and Martin’s insight into where we are heading.

Live Interview with RT Moscow


Armstrong Economics Blog/Armstrong in the Media Re-Posted Sep 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

I was asked to speak live on RT. Tune in to learn more about inflation, sanctions, war,  the energy crisis fueled by the Green Agenda, and the forever-changed world economy. click here to watch.

Putin & October


Armstrong Economics Blog/Politics Re-Posted Sep 17, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Despite all the propaganda that was put out by John McCain, Putin was selected by Yeltsin because he was being blackmailed on the one side by the oligarchs in July 1999 and the communists on the other who introduced a motion in the Duma to impeach him for corruption that was related to the Bank of New York scandal.

Putin NEVER sought to resurrect the old USSR. In fact, he was the ONLY Russian leader to even criticize Lenin as just a bolshevik who destroyed a great empire of the Tsars. Lost in the pages of history, Russia at the time in 1917 had the largest gold reserves of any nation. Those gold reserves vanished and to this day have not been found. It was believed that they were hidden to prevent the Communists from seizing them.

Putin was there to restore Russia after the oligarchs plundered it and the Harvard boys who advised Russia on how to make the transition from Communism to Capitalism utterly never understood the most basic element of such a transition – the people. Putin’s most important achievement of his 20 years in power was restoring normalcy and stability to Russia. He went after the oligarchs and told them they could keep their money, but to stop interfering in politics.

The unwritten history that has been omitted from all books on the subject is that in 1991 when the USSR collapsed, NATO solicited Gorbachev to join NATO. That was one of the reasons there was a coup against him for the hardliners saw this would be a surrender of Russia to the USA. That is when Yeltsin stood on the tank and became President. Yeltsin was himself corrupt and he actually facilitated the rise of the oligarchs.

When Yeltsin turned to Putin out of desperation, the people cheered for Putin was neither an oligarch nor a communist. Despite the propaganda from the West, Putin truly enjoyed a 70%+ approval rating for the people neither wanted to lose all freedom to the communists and the oligarchs exploited the people to gain wealth.

Putin has refused to institute a draft to shore up Russian forces. However, despite all the propaganda that pours out of Ukraine, removing Putin will turn Russia very hard right and they are already criticizing Putin for being too soft.

There has been the strategy that inflation is rising and if Putin is smart, he will turn off the gas to Europe for the winter and show them how insane this is to (1) fuel a proxy war against Russia, and (2) push this Great Reset and the Green Agenda.

Basically, the hope remains that the West loses interest in supporting Ukraine as the costs rise. That’s been Russia’s hope and Ukraine’s dread before, but it seems more unlikely than ever at the moment before winter comes.

The most serious threat to Putin is losing the support of the elites. At the moment, Putin is the balance in the middle between hawks who want to see him crush Ukraine, and doves who want a peace settlement. As it stands now, the hawks would win for the West does not seek any peace and Zelensky says Kissenger is living in 1938 and refuses to yield one inch of territory to Russia. The Ukrainian Neo-Nazis instantly attacked the Donbas in 2014 and even put out a slogan that Crimea will be Ukrainian or Crimea will be depopulated. The hatred there is not going to ever vanish. The only reasonable solution is to allow the Donbas to vote, but since they are mostly ethnic Russians, Kyiv will never accept their vote.

It appears that the volatility will rise after this coming week. The Ukrainians may be forcing Putin’s hand to placate the Hawks since the Doves have been rejected by the West. NATO was Behind the Surprise Offensive In Kharkiv. Yet this victory for Ukraine was more of a staged PR event. The region was being held by local police units, not the Russian army which is in the South. Russia has achieved a 10:1 kill ratio against the Ukrainians in the region of the Donbas which is key. The Ukrainian forces that attacked Kharkiv were in effect a NATO army with the full support of Western intelligence and tactics. Because Kharkiv was held by police-type forces rather than the Russian army, it was clearly done for a PR event to raise morale and to get the West to send more money under the theory that Putin is on the run.

Ukraine Carrying out Assassinations in Moscow


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

There are reports on the Russian General SVR Telegram channel, which tends to be an anti-Putin station, that is claiming there was an inside-job attempt to assassinate Putin with an attack on his motorcade. He was not harmed. They are claiming that the first car of the convoy was blocked by an ambulance, but the second car made a slight detour and did not stop. A loud bang was supposedly heard from Putin’s car, but it continued and arrived safely at the president’s residence.

They further claimed that the body of a man was then found driving the ambulance. They have reported that the head of the president’s bodyguards and several other people have been suspended and are in custody. Nobody has been named and there is no other news service that has reported this claim.

When we look at our models, the real higher volatility and the turning point in Russia appear to be in October, which is also a Panic cycle in the ruble. What we do see is that the Ukrainians carried out assassination hits in Russia. They have been trying to target Putin to kill him without success so far. They tried to kill Aleksandr Dugin with a car bomb, but they killed his daughter Darya Dugina. This is the car bombing of a pro-Putin supporter in Moscow. The sheer hatred between Ukrainian and Russians is legendary and as such the likelihood of this ever reaching peace is unlikely.

My sources continue to suggest that removing Putin will escalate things, not stop them. The hardliners will seize power and that will not be good going into 2023. Claiming they have Putin on the run is not going to win the day in Ukraine. It runs the risk of really escalating things for the hardliners in Moscow are criticizing Putin for being too soft on Ukraine. He for the first time started to attack their power grid. The hardliners will push for a serious attack against Ukraine rather than just securing the Donbas.

Debt Diplomacy – Is China the East IMF?


Armstrong Economics Blog/China Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The International Monetary Fund is not the only option for countries in desperate need of funding. The Financial Times recently reported that China has been sending out tens of billions in secretive “emergency loans” to countries facing financial hardship.

China and others have been known to invest in emerging or struggling economies, but China seems to be upping its aid and has provided more funds than even the World Bank. AidData revealed that Pakistan, Argentina, and Sri Lanka alone had received $32.83 billion since 2017. Former Vice President Mike Pence accused China of using “’debt diplomacy’ to expand its influence. [China] is offering hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure loans to governments from Asia to Africa to Europe and even Latin America. Yet the terms of those loans are opaque at best, and the benefits invariably flow overwhelmingly to Beijing.” Pence claimed that China would prey upon poor nations and take ownership of key infrastructure upon default. Another example of the pot calling the kettle black, so to speak.

Pence used the example of Sri Lanka who was pushed into default, opening room for China to construct a military base in the port of Hambantota. The Atlantic published an article in 2021 to say that Pence’s claims of China ushering in their military to Sri Lanka was a lie, as if China wouldn’t jump on such an opportunity. Last month, in August 2022, China dispatched military ships to Hambantota with the intention of using the port for dual commercial and military use. Remember that Sri Lanka recently overthrew its president and has been in utter disarray — their economy completely collapsed.

“Sri Lanka needs financial assistance, and it would not want to displease China by revoking the permission,” Jehan Perera, executive director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka, told VOA. At this time, they are not building a military base, but it is possible as Chinese companies took out a 99-year lease on the area in 2017. Sri Lanka was seeking a loan from the IMF, but they were unwilling to take on such risky debt. Business is business. Sri Lanka was desperate, and China was willing to come to their aid, but governments only act in their self-interest and would not take on risks if they did not see a way to monetize that risk.

So yes, China is willing to take on the risks that the IMF will not. Unlike the IMF, China does not need to disclose its investments. China is investing less in US and Western debt and has turned its attention to indebted nations. This may be one of the reasons that our computer predicts China will become the next financial capital of the world by 2037.25.

Switzerland to Imprison People for Heating Homes


Armstrong Economics Blog/Climate Re-Posted Sep 15, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Imagine going to jail for three long years for heating your home or business. That now may become a reality in Switzerland, where heating your home above 19 C (66.2 F) is considered excessive and a punishable offense. Water may not be heated above 60C (140F), and saunas and hot tubs powered by radiant heaters are prohibited. Indoor swimming pools also must remain cold.

Markus Sporndli, a spokesman for the Federal Department of Finance, said that people could be charged a daily fine of 30 francs for disobeying, but the fee could spike to 3,000 francs. The government is warning that there could be “spot checks” and said they would send authorities if someone reports a resident or business for breaking the law. Switzerland imposed fines and expected neighbors to turn on one another for COVID, and this is yet another power grab.

The law is still being finalized, but this is yet another way for the government to turn the common person into a criminal. The government, not the people, created this energy crisis and now demands that the people suffer for their mismanagement. Some are calling these measures “Green fascism” or “ecofascism.”

Historian Michael E. Zimmerman defined ecofascism as follows: “a totalitarian government that requires individuals to sacrifice their interests to the well-being of the ‘land,’ understood as the splendid web of life, or the organic whole of nature, including peoples and their states.” Expect to see this trend rise as temperatures decline.

UK Bans COVID Vaccine for Children Under 12


Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN Re-Posted Sep 14, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Big Pharma is continually pushing these vaccinations onto every member of the global population. Yet, the data coming out (eventually) cannot be ignored. UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) claims that “the offer of Covid jabs to healthy five to 11-year-olds was always meant to be temporary.” How can a gene-modifying mRNA vaccine be temporary?

This “safe and effective” vaccine has ruined lives. The CDC reported 54,697 adverse side effects in children ranging from 6 months to 17 years of age, including “death, life-threatening illness, hospitalization or prolongation of hospitalization, permanent disability, congenital anomaly or birth defect.” This is only what has been reported as the long-term consequences are now coming to light.

Dr. Robert Malone, who has been shunned from social media, has long warned of these “adverse side effects.” Dr. Malone noted more children had been harmed from the COVID vaccination than from COVID itself. “The UK, Sweden, Poland, and many other nations have it right. They stopped vaccinating babies and children. Parents have it right. The vast majority aren’t vaccinating babies and children,” Malone stated. “It is time that the US government to face facts. It is time to stop vaccinating babies and children.”

Sadly, this data is not new. Countries are QUIETLY eliminating childhood vaccinations, and pharmaceutical companies remain immune to any liability for the damage they have caused and the lives they have ruined. Yet, here in America, some schools are still demanding children receive the jab to attend class. It is time that we protect our children from this mass experiment.

Flashback, July 24, 2019, Robert Mueller “Not in My Purview”


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 14, 2022 | Sundance

From the latest court filing by Special Counsel John Durham, we learn that Robert Mueller’s FBI investigators interviewed Christopher Steele’s primary Source, Igor Danchenko, on June 15, 2017.

In addition to being on the payroll of the FBI since March as a confidential informant, exactly two weeks later, June 29, 2017, the Robert Mueller special counsel renewed the Carter Page FISA application to continue their exploitation of the comprehensive title-1 surveillance warrant against the Trump administration.

Additionally, within the court filing against Igor Danchenko, we find that FBI personnel from Robert Mueller’s team interviewed Christopher Steele:

Now consider this specific line of questioning of Robert Mueller, conducted on July 24, 2019, after the Mueller special counsel published their report.  The questioning is from New York Representative Elise Stephanik to Robert Mueller on the specifics of the special counsel questioning Christopher Steele and/or his source, Igor Danchenko.

Keep in mind, ONLY ROBERT MUELLER knew at the time of this questioning that Igor Danchenko remained a paid confidential informant at the time of his answers.  WATCH:

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AFTER originally interviewing Danchenko in January and February 2017, in March the DOJ/FBI then reinterviewed him before refiling the second FISA renewal in April.   With Danchenko on their payroll they FBI did not need to worry about him undermining the Trump-Russia narrative or speaking the truth about the dossier.  This approach protected the fraudulently obtained title-1 surveillance warrant.  The surveillance warrant was renewed in April.

AFTER Robert Mueller is appointed special counsel in May 2017, with Danchenko on the FBI payroll and under control.  When Danchenko is interviewed on June 15, 2017, he is being interviewed as part of the Mueller operation. Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Andrew Weissmann now submit the FISA application for another renewal on June 29, 2017.  The fraudulently obtained title-1 surveillance warrant was again renewed.

The reason to keep Danchenko on the FBI payroll is to mitigate any risk he might present if he were to speak.  A corrupt FBI network in Washington DC put a control mechanism over Danchenko in order to preserve their surveillance warrant, which was built upon fraud by using the Steele Dossier. They renewed the surveillance warrant twice more (April and June) while Danchenko was a paid confidential informant.

As you can see from the Durham filing, a controlled Danchenko was then handed-off to the Mueller probe, who kept Danchenko on the FBI payroll throughout the Robert Mueller investigation (ended in April 2019) until October 2020 when Danchenko was dropped by the FBI and John Durham “officially” took over and was appointed special counsel.

On July 24, 2019, when Robert Mueller is answering the questions about Chris Steele, the dossier and the Steele sources therein, Mueller was able to deflect and dodge answering the questions about it because AG Bill Barr put John Durham into place in May 2019.

AG Bill Barr put John Durham into place in May 2019, immediately following Robert Mueller’s completed investigation, April 2019, for this exact reason.

It is one long continuum.

The Machiavellian Intent of John Durham Surfaces inside His Court Filing, Outlining the FBI Hiring of Igor Danchenko as Confidential Informant


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 13, 2022 | Sundance

This is sickening to read, and perhaps even more sickening to accept.  CTH has long outlined the belief that Bill Barr was the Bondo application to cover the DOJ and FBI institutional rot, and John Durham was the ongoing spray paint application.

The bottom line is an ongoing DC operation to preserve the institutional credibility of the justice system. A credibility, which is – at this point, entirely destroyed – yet the effort continues.

In a court motion today [pdf HERE], special prosecutor John Durham outlines the case against Christopher Steele’s primary source, Igor Danchenko.  For more granular information about the filing itself, visit Techno Fog [review article HERE].

The basic legal case brought by Durham is predicated on the notion that Christopher Steele’s source for his dossier, Igor Danchenko, willfully and intentionally lied to the FBI, and therefore Danchenko is guilty of purposefully misleading FBI investigators assigned to the Trump-Russia/”crossfire hurricane” investigation.

This is where we must stop pretending.  The Durham premise of a “duped FBI” is laughable on its face. No one in the FBI or DOJ-NSD was “duped” by false information from Igor Danchenko.

The lies, as they were with Clinton lawyer Michael Sussman, were well known to be false, yet materially beneficial to the unspoken intention of the DOJ/FBI, which was to target Donald Trump.   The corrupt intent of the DOJ and FBI is the basic rot John Durham was appointed to cover over.

John Durham is running a Deep State cover operation to protect the institutions of the DOJ and FBI from evidence of their prior activity. The bulls**t of pretending this is not his motive is, well, quite simply nonsense and needs to stop.  Look at today’s filing itself, overlay the timeline and you can see the corrupt intention of the FBI and John Durham’s clear objective is to cover for them.

The big picture takeaway is right there on the second page.  Pay attention to the dates.

CONTEXT – From January 2017 through October 2020 the FBI was using Danchenko as part of its investigation.  This includes the entire timeline of the Robert Mueller and Andrew Weissmann special counsel operation which took place from May 2017 to April 2019.

Danchenko was Christopher Steele’s primary source for information he put into his “dossier”.   The DOJ-NSD and FBI used the Steele Dossier in lieu of a valid ‘wood’s file’ to support the FISA surveillance and search warrant application against Carter Page.  The title-1 warrant gave the DOJ-NSD and FBI the ability to conduct surveillance over Donald Trump as a candidate and as a President.  The warrant was issued in October 2016 and renewed thrice in 2017 (Jan, April, June).

The warrant was used to conduct electronic surveillance of President Trump during the time he was in office.  Robert Mueller and Andrew Weissmann renewed the warrant to support their targeting of Trump and officials in his orbit.  Most of the evidence gathered by Weissmann/Mueller was captured using surveillance legally authorized by the FISA warrant.

Without the Steele Dossier, there wouldn’t be evidence to support the FISA application.  Without the FISA warrant there wouldn’t be legal surveillance of Trump.  This is the importance of the Steele Dossier and as a consequence the importance of Igor Danchenko who provided the fabricated material within the dossier.

♦ We already knew from the Inspector General report on the Carter Page FISA application, the FBI had interviewed Danchenko in January of 2017, within days of filing for the first renewal of the Carter Page Title-1 surveillance warrant.   However, we learn today -for the first time- the FBI hired Danchenko as a “paid confidential human source” following that interview.

According to Durham, Danchenko remained a paid informant of the FBI all the way to October 2020.  Not coincidentally the same time when John Durham was officially appointed by Bill Barr.

So, let’s just stand back and look at this bulls**t scheme for what it is….

The FBI interviews and questions Igor Danchenko in January 2017 about the information in the Steele Dossier.  Danchenko tells them the material he provided to Chris Steele was all hearsay, word-of-mouth, said in jest, bar talk.  Essentially, nonsense [OIG report on those encounters]

Danchenko tells the FBI the material in the dossier was crap.  Therefore, the underlying information that supported the FISA application was crap.

The FBI knows the information is crap, yet the FBI still used the dossier to get the first renewal of the FISA warrant (January 2017).  The original application (Oct. ’16) and the first renewal (Jan. ’17) are word-for-word and page-for-page identical. The FBI and DOJ added nothing; they simply re-filed the exact same documents for the warrant renewal.

AFTER the January 2017 interview, the FBI hires Igor Danchenko as a paid confidential human source.  This move can only be seen for what it was, the DOJ/FBI needed to mitigate the damage Danchenko could bring to their surveillance warrant authority, so the FBI hired him.

AFTER hiring Danchenko the DOJ/FBI then reinterviewed him before refiling the second renewal in April.   With Danchenko on their payroll they don’t need to worry about him undermining the narrative or speaking the truth about the dossier.  This approach protects their warrant.  The surveillance warrant is renewed.

AFTER Robert Mueller is appointed special counsel in May 2017, with Danchenko still on the FBI payroll and under control…  Special Counsel Robert Mueller and Andrew Weissmann now submit the FISA application for another renewal on June 29, 2017.

The reason to keep Danchenko on the FBI payroll is to mitigate any risk he might present if he were to speak.

As you can see from the Durham filing, Danchenko was kept on the FBI payroll throughout the Robert Mueller investigation and the special counsel also interviewed him several times.  When Danchenko is interviewed on June 15, 2017, he is being interviewed as part of the Mueller operation.   That interview was before Mueller renewed the FISA application on June 29th.

Igor Danchenko was kept on the FBI payroll from March 2017 through October 2020.

So, what happened in October 2020?

John Durham was officially appointed as Special Counsel by Bill Barr.

Follow the timeline:

Danchenko interviewed by FBI in January 2017. Tells FBI dossier is junk.

FBI hires Danchenko in March 2017 just before renewing the FISA they now know is based on junk.

May 2017 Robert Mueller appointed to cover up all of the DOJ/FBI corruption that existed in the Trump targeting.

June 2017 Mueller interviews Danchenko, then renews the FISA.

February 2019, Bill Barr enters as Attorney General.

April 2019 Robert Mueller completes investigation.

May 2019, Bill Barr appoints Durham just to look into things.  Immediately then begs Trump not to declassify any documents.  Trump writes executive order giving Bill Barr ability to review and declassify documents.

October 2020, Bill Barr officially (and quietly), makes John Durham a special counsel.  We don’t find out until December (after the Nov election).

October 2020, FBI drops Igor Danchenko as paid informant.

Put it all together and you see the continuum.

(1) Donald Trump was being targeted by a corrupt DOJ and FBI.  (2) Robert Mueller was installed in May 2017 to cover up the targeting.  (3) When Mueller is nearing his completion, Bill Barr steps in to mitigate institutional damage from 1 and 2. (4) Barr maintains damage control and installs Durham. (5) Durham takes over the coverup operation from October 2020 (Danchenko safe to exit) through today.

Main Justice kept a bag over Danchenko until they needed a scapegoat, created by Durham, to sell a narrative that Main Justice was duped. John Durham is charging Danchenko (working outside govt) with lying to the FBI while simultaneously avoiding drawing attention to the FBI/DOJ officials (inside govt) who knew Danchenko was lying and were willfully blind to it in order to continue attacking and investigating President Donald Trump.

James Comey, Robert Mueller, Bill Barr, John Durham, the Mar-a-Lago raid…  it’s all one long continuum of the same targeting and coverup operation.

Bill Barr was the Bondo application and John Durham is the spray paint.

The entire system is corrupt.