Category Important

Dec 15 2017

T-Rex: “Around The Globe” End of Year Briefing and Deep Dive on North Korea Policy…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 15, 2017 by

We are so fortunate to have Secretary of State Rex Tillerson.  Stunning mastery of global events, policy, strategy, and diplomatic nuance at both the big and granular levels.

During a keynote address, “Meeting the Foreign Policy Challenges of 2017 and Beyond” at the 2017 Atlantic Council – Korea Foundation Forum, Secretary Tillerson takes the opportunity to provide another eloquent “walk around the globe” outline of current foreign engagements and ongoing U.S. policy therein.  If you watched the first one, you’ll also enjoy this one.

The first 38 minutes consist of T-Rex taking a “jog”, as he put it, around the globe to help everyone understand “what’s going on”.   With simple note cards for reference Tillerson walks through the most important challenges in foreign policy.  The last 20 minutes of the video is also well worth watching because T-Rex goes into great detail on the subject of North Korea and how each angle of nuance plays a part of the larger dynamic.WATCH:

(FULL Transcipt is Available HERE)

Dec 15 2017

The Dow & Trump Tax Reform


Armstrong Economics Blog/Dow Jones

Re-Posted Dec 15, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Trump Tax Reform reducing the corporate tax to 21% and taking effect January 1st, 2018 rather than being delayed until 2019, will be one of the biggest positive catalysts for US equities in decades. This is very interesting because it is now fundamentally validating what our computer has been projecting for highs going up to the 40,000 level on the Dow back in 2009.

Many of the domestic and institutional investors overseas are NOT in this market. They will now be forced to reposition their portfolios once the bill is passed. How to Trade a Vertical Market is absolutely critical at this point in time. This is by no means going to be easy.

We are already above the top of the Upward Channel and this will be 21,017.30. Our projections for 2017 stood at 25,648.40 and this rises to 28,045.71 for 2018. This is the next area of resistance. Once we push through that projection, the market will come back to test it. That will be the start of the slingshot upward.

The same model produced the projection at 195.97 for 1928. The year 1928 opened above the projection at 203.40, fell back to retest it dripping to 194.50, and then entered the slingshot running to 301.60 intraday and closed that year at 300.00. Keep in mind our project model gives us 25,648.40 so we are not yet through that level.

This is why I have always warned AGAINST fundamental analysis. The fundamentals ALWAYS unfold to validate what our computer forecasts to start with. Our forecast that BREXIT would win and Trump back in 2016 was possible ONLY because the computer was picking up the change in public sentiment which is driven by economics. The Trump Tax Reform is a reflection of the discontent underlying the economy. The Democrats will naturally vote in block against it because they simply like the higher taxes even if it produces fewer jobs and lower economic growth. They cannot change their color now.

NOBODY could have forecast this back in 2009. Barron’s though we were crazy back in 2011 forecasting the Dow was off to new record highs. Socrates can beat anyone, even me. So why will mainstream media not report our model’s success? Because it is not in the self-interest of themselves or government. Why interview people with opinions to fill their pages if all you have to do is try to figure out why the forecasts Socrates puts out will unfold on schedule? Don’t worry about it. Our big clients prefer that our forecasts are not on their front pages.

After the New Year, we will produce a special report on the US share market for 2018 with the turning point and price objectives for the year.

Dec 14 2017

An Investigative Pattern Emerges…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 14, 2017 by

During a recent rally in Pensacola President Trump remarked off-the-cuff: “we have a rigged system, we really do, we have a rigged system and we’re working hard to change it“. Against the backdrop of recent revelations with the stunning politicization of the FBI and DOJ, those words ring notes of truth, and also caution.

Over the past two weeks we have seen releases from the DOJ Office of Inspector General that appear to be building toward a much more consequential outcome. The corruption is jaw-dropping. The very heart of the U.S. system of Law (DOJ) and Order (FBI) is now being questioned. I would argue the IG obviously understands the need for caution within these discoveries and the recent releases are all purposeful, timed, planned and targeted.

Consider what is at stake; and further consider that you were given the task of revealing the outcome of an investigation of such consequence.  How would you introduce the findings to the larger U.S. electorate?   Given the timing of the releases from the IG’s investigation, I think that’s what we are seeing in the past two weeks.  A prosecutor laying out his case over the course of multiple media cycles.

For the past year plus, we have heard generalized terms of investigations.  However, since the beginning of December the information shifted and we begin hearing about specific names caught within the IG investigation.

Focusing only on the names from within the IG concern we find:  FBI Agent Peter Strzok; FBI/DOJ Attorney Lisa Page; DOJ Deputy Bruce Ohr; his wife, Fusion GPS contractor Nellie Ohr; FBI Counterintelligence Director Bill Priestap; and FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe.  Each of these people appear to have been captured within the net at the heart of the politicization investigation.

Now, there’s bound to be more details; however, those names are all likely to face some form of congressional scrutiny, questioning, and possibly criminal charges.  Charges that will likely be based, in part, on the outlined information within the IG releases.

Oh, sure there are many other names, including current possible partisan usurpers within the Robert Muller probe: DOJ/SC Andrew Weissman, DOJ/SC Jeannie Rhee, DOJ/SC Aaron Zebley etc. that are also concerning.  However, for this discussion we focus on the IG targets identified.  Discussion of Mueller is for another day.

Remember, the OIG investigation is specifically looking at actions taken, or actions not taken, by DOJ and FBI officials that reflect specific evidence of politicization by the leadership within each agency (James Comey, FBI and Loretta Lynch, DOJ), and/or their subordinates writ large.

(LINK)

These offices represent the “Law and Order” divisions of our national government.

There is a pattern in the released OIG information and how we retrieve it from the media.

♦Ahead of FBI Director Christopher Wray appearing before congress the IG released the information about FBI Agent Strzok and his mistress FBI/DOJ Attorney Lisa Page.

♦Just before Asst. FBI Director Andrew McCabe was going to appear before congress the IG released information about DOJ Deputy Bruce Ohr and his wife Nellie Ohr.

Andrew McCabe ducked out of the hearing, and will now appear next week. Boy-oh-boy that one should be interesting.  If he’s still employed. (anticipating more releases here)

♦Just before DOJ Asst. AG Rod Rosenstein appeared before congress the IG released the actual text messaging information from Agent Strzok and Lisa Page.

See the pattern?

There have been approximately FIVE big releases from the IG office, that seem to be released in a very specific manner.  It looks just like a prosecutor laying out his case against the identified names, and WE, the American People, are the jury.

Consider:

♦Release #1 was the Agent Strzok and Attorney Lisa Page story; and the repercussions from discovering their politically motivated bias in the 2015/2016 Clinton email investigation and 2016/2017 Russian Election investigation.

♦Release #2 outlined the depth of FBI Agent Strzok and FBI Attorney Page’s specific history in the 2016 investigation into Hillary Clinton to include the changing of the wording [“grossly negligent” to “extremely careless”] of the probe outcome delivered by FBI Director James Comey.

♦Release #3 was the information about DOJ Deputy Bruce Ohr being in contact with Fusion GPS at the same time as the FISA application was submitted and granted by the FISA court; which authorized surveillance and wiretapping of candidate Donald Trump;  that release also attached Bruce Ohr and Agent Strzok directly to the Steele Dossier.

♦Release #4 was information that Deputy Bruce Ohr’s wife, Nellie Ohr, was an actual contract employee of Fusion GPS, and was hired by F-GPS specifically to work on opposition research against candidate Donald Trump.  Both Bruce Ohr and Nellie Ohr are attached to the origin of the Christopher Steele Russian Dossier.

♦Release #5 was the specific communication between FBI Agent Strzok and FBI Attorney Page.  The 10,000 text messages that included evidence of them both meeting with Asst. FBI Director Andrew McCabe to discuss the “insurance policy” against candidate Donald Trump in August of 2016.

Again, see the pattern?

The OIG is laying out the case for further inquiry, investigation and more importantly questioning, of each of the aforementioned officials.

Timing the information to drop in conjunction with the open and public congressional appearances of FBI Director Christopher Wray, FBI Asst. Director Andrew McCabe and Asst. AG Rod Rosenstein puts sunlight upon the content of the releases that doesn’t require MSM for broadcast.

See the strategy?

The IG has no prosecutorial authority, that decision is up to the Attorney General.

However, in this strategy the IG is laying out his prosecutable case before the American public via TV and congressional appearances.  In my humble opinion none of this is accidental.  This is strategic white hat distribution of material that is immensely important to the larger U.S. electorate.   The subject matter is so consequential, it needs to be absorbed in small digestible portions.

And here’s where it gets really interesting.

As Ohio Rep Jim Jordan stated yesterday (after the Rod Rosenstein questioning), the next move is to put each of the named people in front of congress for questioning.   Andrew McCabe, Bill Priestap, Peter Strzok, Lisa Page, Bruce Ohr, and possibly Nellie Ohr and Glenn Simpson, are questioned about the details behind the specific information provided by the IG releases.   Get them under oath, get them on-the-record, and get them committed to one story.

Most likely, just like Lois Lerner, this crew will plead the fifth.  However, unlike Lois Lerner the underlying evidence will exist from within the Inspector General’s year-long investigation.   Against 1.2 million pages of documentation, we know of so far, it really doesn’t matter if they cooperate or not.

Their compliance with congress is irrelevant to their possible outcome.  The IG investigative report provides all the needed substance to consider indictments.

Cooperate or not, the U.S. Attorney General, Jeff Sessions, will now be in a position to accept the exhaustive evidence provided by the IG report – and make a decision on whether or not to indict them.

Secondarily, as an outcome of their indictment, the larger cases against Hillary Clinton and company are now subject to reopening and plea bargains from the indicted FBI and DOJ conspirators can then be leveraged to gain additional information against the larger group.  [And yes, this potentially touches President Obama depending on how the concentric circles of defense collapse.]

I would be remiss if I didn’t remind people that Huma Abedin and Cheryl Mills have voided their prior immunity deals by provably lying to the FBI. Lying voids immunity.

Additionally, if former AG Loretta Lynch, and/or Asst. AG Sally Yates, and/or FBI Director James Comey are not captured within the IG investigative outcome (still undetermined), the seeds for their capture are most definitely created by it – because the next tier of leadership appears already captured.

Based on what we already know: Bruce Ohr, Lisa Page, Peter Strzok, Bill Priestap and Andrew McCabe are already captured.   Depending on the specifics, non-government entities Nellie Ohr and/or Glenn Simpson might also be captured under federal conspiracy or racketeering laws.

Bill Priestap (counterintelligence director), Bruce Ohr (DOJ Deputy), and definitely Andrew McCabe are in position to help net Sally Yates.

[IMHO Yates is the next one (per pattern) to get entangled with additional IG releases].

Director Comey seems to be in a very precarious position because the entire operation against Trump was a counterintelligence operation run from within the FBI albeit using DOJ assistance.  Additionally, the non-indictment of Hillary Clinton, due to the political manipulation of evidence by Agent Strzok, becomes the second liability of James Comey.

If the FISA warrant used to gain wiretaps and surveillance on Donald Trump was obtained using false, manipulated or fraudulent information, which currently seems highly likely, the entire operation becomes a criminal conspiracy and the question(s) become who knew what, when, and how far up was that authorized.

Based solely on what is public information right now… Andrew McCabe and Bill Priestap are way out on the edges of legality.  The issues around the Steele Dossier underpinning the FISA warrant would remove any legal defense they might have.

The Big Ugly

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PS. All of this is separate from the ongoing leak investigations from the new unit established within the FBI and DOJ.  (see here)

 

Dec 8 2017

THE BIG UGLY – Why U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras Recusal From Mike Flynn Case is a Big Deal…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on December 8, 2017 by

Last night news broke that U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras “has been recused” from the case overseeing the prosecution of General Mike Flynn. Details are vague. According to Reuters, both the judge and the Flynn legal team have yet to comment.

Additionally, there is no concrete answer as to whether the recusal was done by the judge himself or was forced upon him. While the reasoning is the key, the difference between the two options adds another layer of consequence within the rest of this outline.  Reuters News Service puts it this way:

(Reuters) – The U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia judge presiding over the criminal case for President Donald Trump’s former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn has been recused from handling the case, a court spokeswoman said on Thursday.

According to a court filing, U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras, who presided over a Dec. 1 hearing where Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the Federal Bureau of Investigation about his contacts with Russia, will no longer handle the case.

Court spokeswoman Lisa Klem did not say why Contreras was recused, and added that the case was randomly reassigned. Reuters could not immediately learn the reason for the recusal, or reach Contreras. An attorney for Flynn declined to comment. (Link)

Obviously, the customary reason for recusal is when there is a conflict of interest between the case as assigned and the judge overseeing it.  However, as you can clearly see, in this case it’s rather odd that if a conflict existed the judge would have even begun to oversee the case at the prior hearing.  Why wait until six days after the first hearing?

As to the reasoning for the recusal, and stressed against the backdrop of the new information surrounding the investigative practices of the DOJ and FBI, this recusal is potentially both a game-changer and a massive dose of sunlight.

U.S. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras is one of a very few FISA Court Judges.

Judge Contreras was in the position of approving FISA warrants at the time when FBI Deputy Head of Counterintelligence, FBI Agent Peter Strzok was assembling the underlying information for the FISA warrant used against candidate Trump.

There is a very real possibility that Judge Contreras signed off on the FISA warrant in October 2016 that initiated the counterintelligence wiretapping and surveillance of the Trump campaign.  That wiretapping and surveillance ultimately led to the questioning of Michael Flynn; the consequence of which brings Flynn to Contreras courtroom.

However, before getting to those ramifications it is important to step back for a moment and review the former March 20th, 2017, congressional testimony of FBI Director James Comey.

We have drawn attention to this testimony frequently, because it is one of the few times when congress has pinned Comey down and made him commit to specifics.  In fact, for an otherwise innocuous congressional hearing, this specific segment has been viewed over 400,000 times. When we understand the importance of the content – we accept that perhaps even James Comey’s own lawyers have watched it repeatedly.

The first three minutes of this video are what is important.  As you watch this testimony remember to overlay what you know now against the James Comey statements from nine months ago.

I would particularly draw your attention to the timeline as Comey describes (counterintelligence investigation beginning in July 2016); and also to pay attention to the person Comey assigns responsibility for keeping congress out of the loop on oversight.  Comey points to the DOJ’s National Security Division Head who is in charge of the counterintelligence operations, Bill Priestap.  However, Comey doesn’t use Priestap’s name:

…”it’s usually the decision of the head of our counterintelligence division”.

Everything happens in the first THREE MINUTES:

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It’s obvious James Comey was not anticipating that line of questioning.  His discomfort and obfuscation pours out within his words and body language.  However, from that testimony we gain insight which we can add to the latest information.

We know the DNC and Clinton Campaign commissioned opposition research in April of 2016 through Fusion GPS, who sub-contracted Christopher Steele.   Between April and July of 2016 the retired MI6 agent put together opposition research on Donald Trump centered around a claimed network of dubious and sketchy Russian contacts.

The first draft of that dossier was reported to be passed out in June/July 2016.

Notice the FBI counterintelligence operation began in July 2016.  That directly and specifically lines up with the recent discoveries surrounding Deputy Head of Counterintelligence, FBI Agent Peter Strzok and the new information about Agent Strzok having direct contact with Christopher Steele, the author for the “Russian Dossier”.

Additionally, the July 2016 time-frame lines up with candidate Donald Trump winning the GOP nomination, and also the first application for a wiretapping and surveillance warrant to the FISA court which was unusually denied by a FISA judge.

Very few FISA requests are ever denied. Actually, only like 1 out of 100 are denied. So for a FISA request to be denied, there had to be a really compelling reason to require more than the traditional amount of FBI/DOJ due diligence within the request.

If you consider that monitoring associates within a presidential campaign would certainly be one of those types of requests which would lend a judge GREAT pause, well, perhaps the denial gains perspective.  Certainly any FISA judge would easily understand the potential ramifications of the U.S. government conducting surveillance on a presidential campaign.

However, in October 2016 the second FISA request was granted.

What else happened in October of 2016?

According to media reports in October of 2016 the full and completed Russian Dossier was being heavily shopped by Fusion GPS with payments toward journalists.  Additionally, in October 2016, according to yesterday’s headlines: DOJ Associate Deputy Attorney General Bruce G Ohr was outed and demoted because he too had conversations with Christopher Steele and Fusion GPS etc.

So in the month where a FISA Judge granted the warrant for wiretapping and surveillance, the FBI (via Agent Strzok), and DOJ (via Deputy AG Bruce Ohr), were both in contact with Russian Dossier author Christopher Steele.

October 2016 is EXACTLY when The Obama administration submits a new, narrow request to the FISA court, now focused on a computer server in Trump Tower suspected of links to Russian banks. As Andrew McCarthy pointed out months ago: “No evidence is found — but the wiretaps continue, ostensibly for national security reasons. The Obama administration is now monitoring an opposing presidential campaign using the high-tech surveillance powers of the federal intelligence services.” (link)

Are you seeing how the dots connect?

June/July 2016 a FISA request is denied. This is simultaneous to FBI agent Strzok initial contact with Christopher Steele and the preliminary draft of the dossier.

October 2016 a FISA request approved. This is simultaneous to agent Strzok and Assoc. Deputy AG Bruce G Ohr in contact with Christopher Steele and the full dossier.

It would be EXPLOSIVE if it turned out the FISA warrant was gained by deception, misleading/manipulated information, or fraud; and that warrant that led to the wiretapping and surveillance of General Flynn was authorized by FISA Court Judge Contreras – who would now be judge in Flynn’s case.

Is this the recusal reason?

Additionally, was that “Dossier” part of the collective intelligence gathering that led to the ridiculous (January 2017) “Russian Malicious Cyber Activity – Joint Analysis Report“?  The report that attempted to give justification for the December 29th Russian sanctions, and made famous by the media falsely claiming 17 agencies agreed on the content.

Back to the timeline we go, and remember NSA head Admiral Mike Rogers was the one Intelligence Community official without *confidence* in the “Joint Analysis Report”.

On Tuesday November 8th, 2016 the election was held. Results announced Wednesday November 9th, 2016.

On Thursday November 17th, 2016, NSA Director Mike Rogers traveled to New York and met with President-Elect Donald Trump.

The next day, Friday November 18th, President Trump moved the transition team from Trump Tower to his golf course in New Jersey.

AND… On Friday November 18th The Washington Post reported on a recommendation from “October” that Mike Rogers be removed from his NSA position:

[…] In a move apparently unprecedented for a military officer, Rogers, without notifying superiors, traveled to New York to meet with Trump on Thursday at Trump Tower. (link)

Apparently, Mike Rogers never told his boss, James Clapper (or anyone else) he was going to see the president-elect. The recommendation to fire Mike Rogers (in October) was made by Defense Secretary Ash Carter and ODNI James Clapper “according to several U.S. officials familiar with the matter.”  October?

Is it entirely possible that NSA Director Mike Rogers, having seen the full scope of the intelligence, might have expressed reservations about the October FISA application content, and as a consequence positioned himself as a threat to the group plans?

So here we are in December of 2017.  The Office of the Inspector General is currently working from the inside to investigate the politicization of the FBI and DOJ; and the IG is beginning to identify specific people: FBI Agent Strzok and DOJ Deputy AG Bruce G Ohr.

Meanwhile the oversight committees (Judiciary, Intelligence) are working from the outside of the corrupt organizations to spotlight the consequences from those identified people and highlight specific actionable behavior.

It’s all right there in front of everyone:

FBI Agent Peter Strzok’s former boss was Bill Priestap, FBI Asst. Director in charge of Counterintelligence.  [The same Bill Priestap James Comey stated was the person who decided not to tell congressional oversight of the investigation]  Bill Priestap’s boss was FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe. Directly above McCabe in the chain-of-command was FBI Director James Comey.

Inside the DOJ: Associate Deputy Attorney General Bruce G Ohr’s former boss was Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates.  Sally Yates boss was Attorney General Loretta Lynch.

There’s the identified usurpers, and the political plan they utilized, with a common sense outline clear as day.  Along with obvious official assistance from all of the personal staff under each official.

Back to the Flynn Case: (note the players)

•Friday January 20th – Inauguration

•TuesdayJanuary 24th – Lt. Gen. Mike Flynn was interviewed at the WH by the FBI (one of the interviewers was FBI Agent Peter Strzok).

•WednesdayJanuary 25th –  The Department of Justice received a detailed readout from the FBI agents who had interviewed Flynn. Sally Yates said she felt “it was important to get this information to the White House as quickly as possible.”

•ThursdayJanuary 26th – (morning) Yates called White House Counsel Don McGahn first thing that morning to tell him she had “a very sensitive matter” that had to be discussed face to face. McGahn agreed to meet with Yates later that afternoon.

•Thursday January 26th – (afternoon)  Sally Yates traveled to the White House along with a senior member of the DOJ’s National Security Division, Bill Priestap, who was overseeing the matter.  This was Yates’ first meeting with McGahn in his office, which also acts as a sensitive compartmented information facility (SCIF).

Yates said she began their meeting by laying out the media accounts and media statements made by Vice President Mike Pence and other high-ranking White House officials about General Flynn’s activity “that we knew not to be the truth.”

According to Sally Yates testimony, she and Bill Priestap reportedly presented all the information to McGahn so the White House could take action that they deemed appropriate.  When asked by McGahn if Flynn should be fired, Yates answered, “that really wasn’t our call.”

Yates also said her decision to notify the White House counsel had been discussed “at great length.”  According to her testimony: “Certainly leading up to our notification on the 26th, it was a topic of a whole lot of discussion in DOJ and with other members of the intel community.”

•Friday January 27th – (morning)  White House Counsel Don McGahn called Yates in the morning and asked if she could come back to his office.

•Friday January 27th – (late afternoon) According to her testimony, Sally Yates returned to the White House late that afternoon.  One of McGahn’s topics discussed was whether Flynn could be prosecuted for his conduct.

Specifically, according to Yates, one of the questions McGahn asked Yates was, “Why does it matter to DOJ if one White House official lies to another?” She explained that it “was a whole lot more than that,” and reviewed the same issues outlined the prior day.

McGahn expressed his concern that taking action might interfere with the FBI investigation of Flynn, and Yates said it wouldn’t. “It wouldn’t really be fair of us to tell you this and then expect you to sit on your hands,” Yates had told McGahn.

McGahn asked if he could look at the underlying evidence of Flynn’s conduct, and she said they would work with the FBI over the weekend and “get back with him on Monday morning.

Special Counsel Robert Mueller has charged Flynn (full pdf below) with falsely telling FBI agents that he did not ask the ambassador “to refrain from escalating the situation” in response to the sanctions.

According to the plea, while being questioned by FBI agents on January 24, 2017, Flynn also lied when he claimed he could not recall a subsequent conversation with Kislyak, in which the ambassador told Flynn that the Putin regime had “chosen to moderate its response to those sanctions as a result of [Flynn’s] request.”

Furthermore, a week before the sanctions were imposed, Flynn had also spoken to Kislyak, asking the ambassador to delay or defeat a vote on a pending United Nations resolution. The criminal information charges that Flynn lied to the FBI by denying both that he’d made this request and that he’d spoken afterward with Kislyak about Russia’s response to it.

There was nothing wrong with the incoming national-security adviser’s having meetings with foreign counterparts or discussing such matters as the sanctions in those meetings. However, lying to the FBI is the process crime that has led to Flynn’s admissions herein:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/366062176/content?start_page=1&view_mode=&access_key=key-QHaNTpsHk3My0BRqqECU

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  • The Clinton Campaign was the predicate for the Steele Dossier.
  • The Steele Dossier was the predicate for the FISA Warrants (Agent Strzok).
  • The FISA Warrants were the predicate for wiretapping and surveillance.
  • The wiretapping/surveillance was the predicate for the Trump team unmasking.
  • The unmasking/surveillance was the predicate for Robert Mueller’s SC charges against National security Adviser Michael Flynn.
Dec 6 2017

How China will Surpass the West


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

Posted Dec 6, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

QUESTION: Marty

I just finished watching “The Forecaster” and I am impressed that you survived what the government did to you. As a former Green Beret from back in the day, I can appreciate what you endured more than most, my hats off to you.

All I can add is I hope to hell that no government including ours every gets your source code; as a former military officer and student of history, I know what our government is capable of.

I do wonder if China will survive the coming collapse in the west, aren’t they too tied to us?

Keep up the good work!

D

ANSWER: They will push you to the edge, hoping you break. There is a fine line and if you cross it you lose all fear of death. Then the table is turned. There is no threat they can make that will change your position. Some ask, “Why did you not just turn over the code?” They assume that they will actually honor what they tell you. They NEVER tell the truth, and if you turn over what they demand, you lose everything for they can kill you and pretend it was some accident, heart attack, or whatever. The press will believe them of course. That’s why they are there. You are dancing with the devil and it becomes a dance to the death. I was released ONLY because I got into the Supreme Court. Once they were taking the case, the New York boys had to release me.

Concerning China, the reason that they will succeed is because they are turning inward by building their economy into a consumer reservoir and eliminating their dependence upon the West. They will decline at first, but they will recover and make new highs when the West fails.

Categories: China
Dec 1 2017

Deep State #2 – The Confirmation…


Re-Posted from The Conservative Tree House on November 29, 2017 by

It is increasingly obvious from additional direct communication today, both on twitter and the speech in Missouri, that all of the necessary groundwork for the Big Ugly is in the rear view.  President Trump is now directly confronting ALL adverse interests:

From the video above, even Limbaugh sees it.  Beyond the predictable media attack narrative du jour, which auto-triggers any time POTUS Trump extends his elbows, President Trump is now driving immediate results – SEE HERE

CTH is not a seer of Donald Trump, and anyone who would claim they are should be necessarily dismissed.  President Donald Trump is the only entity who knows specifically what he’s going to do in the moments leading up to what he’s going to do; no-one else.  However, that said, CTH does have a pretty good sense of what evaluation processes Trump takes prior to action. There are now clear indications we have crossed the Rubicon.

President Trump has a plan, but President Trump is also working on instinct.

You see, ever since Donald Trump entered into politics there is a key element he needs to keep at the forefront.  To continue succeeding he needs all of his adversaries, our adversaries, to drop their masks…. And beyond that, he needs confidence that the larger U.S. electorate have clearly seen those masks fall – that’s the instinct part.

Donald Trump has done a remarkable job at drawing-out the enemy behind the wire.  No-one would argue they hold the same perspectives on the Republican apparatus, and the GOPe punditry, they previously held prior to Businessman Trump becoming Politician Trump.

As both a candidate and a president Donald Trump has exposed a jaw-dropping number of political deceivers. He’s also single-handily exposed their hidden agenda(s), and proved beyond a shadow’s doubt that Republican’s were lying about policy and principle for years.

When President Trump speaks, he’s always highlighting these issues. He is also speaking on these issues, repeatedly, to draw out the hidden truth and create a larger awakening.  It is really, really, important to see that Trump is always trying to engage that larger awakening.

Many people, myself included, have argued there’s enough other people awakened now and it was passed time to just go ahead and rip that band-aid off; quit nibbling around the edges.  Let’s call the baby ugly and get down to business…. Trump remained visible in the pounce position, yet he never twitched.

As an apex predator in the Manhattan real estate market Trump has honed his instinctual skills to detect a single drop in an ocean…. His timing is also instinctual.

War.  Bring it on.  Many of us have been awake for a long time and Donald Trump is the man we’ve been waiting for to wage all out thermonuclear war against the GOPe and the crony-corruption within the UniParty/Republican party apparatus.

There is one political enterprise within Washington DC and national politics.  There is only one enterprise.  That enterprise is the UniParty.  There is only one political party in Washington DC, with two internal caucuses – Republicans and Democrats.

Generally speaking, the “Big Ugly” is the moment when President Trump decides to rip the masks off the remnants of the Republican wing of the UniParty within Washington DC.  In many ways the “Big Ugly” is the elimination of the Republican party, and the beginning of an era when a second party, a MAGA party, actually enters the blood stream of U.S. politics and stands against the UniParty.

The defining confrontation is inevitable.  It has been inevitable since the entire GOPe apparatus, including every single GOPe candidate within the 2016 Republican primary, stood up against Donald J Trump.   Candidate Donald Trump held an entirely different series of campaign platform issues the Republican apparatus abhors.  That’s why he won, and they didn’t.

However, Since the 2016 victory, the UniParty has thrown everything they can in front of him to block any advancement of those policies and platform issues.  Every political tool in the UniParty armory, including the Deep State, has been deployed to eliminate the threat Trump represents.

‘Subtle’ as-a-brick-through-a-window, reminder:

President Trump gave them a budget that reduces a trillion in spending; the republicans in congress balked. They openly said reducing spending is not their goal. Those same republicans are now suing President Trump and trying to force the State Department to spend on USAID  and NGO’s. Those same republicans supported Omnibus spending bills. Those same republicans will not support removing ObamaCare. Those same republicans are fighting renegotiated trade deals. Those same republicans don’t support a border wall.  Those same republicans supported launching ridiculous Russian conspiracy investigations; and the list goes on, including senate republicans using a strategic maneuver to block their own President from recess appointments during their summer recess… Those same republicans are UniParty affiliates.

This is the behavior of a unified opposition, a UniParty opposition.  During the September, 2017, Arizona speech and MAGA rally, President Trump came closer than ever before to igniting the fuse on the Big Ugly…. but he stopped just short.

Now, with the failure to repeal ObamaCare clearly established; with the groundwork of President Obama’s unconstitutional DACA sitting in front of the UniParty; with Trump executing various spending restraints (State Dept and CFPB examples); and with the tax reform bill being debated;  and with NAFTA sitting there, looming, possibly being eliminated,… we see Trump has positioned the full sunlight of an awakened electorate upon the masks of the UniParty leadership.

The signs are everywhere.

We knew the Big Ugly confrontation was closer than ever; but in typical Trumpian style the actual start time was subtle and almost invisible. President Trump against a unified DC system with the U.S. electorate watching and supporting.

It’s begun.

 

Nov 28 2017

Illinois Supreme Court Rules Against Pensions


Armstrong Economics Blog/Pension Crisis

Re-Posted Nov 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The Illinois Supreme Court has used STRICT CONSTRUCTION to defend the State against State Employee pensions that have been bankrupting the State. Previously, back in 2014, the  Supreme Court ruled that health care benefits provided to state employees were a “permanent benefit” guaranteed by the state constitution. That has led to a complete disaster as healthcare costs have risen out of control thanks to Obamacare, which handed insurance companies more money and a monopoly status that everyone had to have insurance even the y7outh who never used it.

Those health care costs are destroying the fabric of the entire economy pushing pension costs over the top. The Supreme Court is mindful of the disaster he caused with its 2014 ruling and they have been obvious under political pressure to reverse it. They figured a way to do this using STRICT CONSTRUCTION. Therefore, the benefit cannot be greater than what was expressed in the statute. Consequently, they now delivered a six-word ruling on Thanksgiving eve refusing to hear the retirees’ appeal of a state Appellate Court ruling that essentially upheld Mayor Rahm Emanuel’s now-completed, three-year phase-out of retiree health care coverage.

The Supreme Court magically taketh away with one hand what the previous hand gave.“For the city, this is a huge benefit. The amount in government pensions for health care is dropping from $137 million a year to between $7 million and $8 million. Effectively, The courts have now held that you cannot rely on anything the city tells you unless you can prove that person had authority to bind the city.

In December 2015, the court ruled that the city employee pension funds have an obligation to provide and subsidize retiree health care with funds provided by the city, but only at levels outlined in 1983 and 1985 amendments to the state’s pension code. That is the key. The statue only guaranteed subsidy amounts to $55-a-month for police and fire retirees not eligible for Medicare and $21 for those who are. For retirees covered by the Municipal Employees and Laborers pension funds, the guaranteed monthly subsidy amounts to just $25. The explosion in health care insurance which Congress has done nothing about is undermining the pensions and will explode in crisis resulting in civil unrest over the next 5 years.

Courts are put in place by politicians. When ruling will go against the government, judges are word-smiths. They know how to ignore the law when they must. This is all part of how the system collapses. Once the Rule of Law fails, nothing will SURVIVE. It is time to turn out the lights.

Nov 28 2017

Renminbi v the Dollar


Armstrong Economics Blog/China

Re-Posted Nov 28, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The dollar haters have been touting that the Chinese yuan, or otherwise known as the renminbi, would kill the dollar and gold will soar. I have warned that China will take the spotlight as the Financial Capital of the World once again but only after 2032. A real assessment of international capital flows reveals the truth. The Chinese renminbi accounts for only a share of 1.85% share of the international cash flows. In fact, the renminbi’s global share has declined from nearly 2.5% of total global capital flows in 2015, for that was its peak in September 2015 actually on target with the Economic Confidence Model. So despite all the fanfare, China has entered a decline since 2015 – not a rally to kill the dollar.

gold-natl-debt-quantity-of-money

The Beijing government has opened foreign capital markets in recent years. Since 2016, China’s currency has officially been the fifth world currency of the International Monetary Fund alongside the dollar, euro, yen and British pound. That was supposed to kill the dollar. That had zero impact contrary to the dollar haters who concoct endless scenarios to paint the picture of the end of the dollar. One has to wonder why people continue to read these people. They have NEVER been right. They have used the scare-tactics that increasing the money supply would devastate the dollar and create hyperinflation. Another failed scenario. They there was the one about China was going to trade “real” gold, not paper futures as in New York COMEX. That one was supposed to kill the COMEX and everyone would rush to China. Well, that did not happen either. They lack any comprehension of how the world functions and were blind to the fact that by starting with gold trading in yuan, it was a tiny test market for the floating of the yuan itself. It would allow arbitrage between New York and China yielding the next difference being the yuan. Buy gold in China and sell it in New York, and the difference is the currency. So they got that one wrong and the both the COMEX and the dollar managed to survive.

There continues to be a willingness of Chinese policymakers and business leaders to help shape the currency, which is the world’s second-largest economy. For example, the Chinese will soon offer oil contracts in yuan as well and all of this is an indirect way of floating the currency. This willingness on the part of the Chineses government is why it will take time, but their economy will become the biggest in the world after 2032. What makes the US economy the biggest? The American consumer and lower taxes than Europe. When you leave more money in the hands of the people, they spend it creating jobs for everyone. Europe is following Marx. They think the government is better equipped to spend other people’s money. That produces corruption, not economic growth.

As long as China keeps its tax rate low and allows the people to spend the benefits of their labour, then it will continue to rise to displace the West and they are blinded by power and pursue this Hunt forever more Taxes.

Nov 27 2017

Monopoly – Gov’t Violates its Own Anti-Trust Laws


Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes

Re-Posted Nov 27, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

COMMENT: Marty,

Really enjoyed the WEC. My only disappointment was not getting to meet you at the Friday evening event and share a drink and a few minuets conversation. Next time for sure.

By the way, your team and especially your daughter were absolutely terrific. Very helpful and efficient.

Just read your piece on the Leonardo de Vinci’s painting.  Of special interest I note your statement:

That is counter to capitalism which dictates that prices decline with scale. Government costs rise with the scale showing something is just not right!

By definition, the ability to raise costs (prices) on increasing volume (scale) makes that entity a predatory Monopoly. That is the “something” that ‘is just not right’ about the whole thing.

Joe

REPLY: You are correct. Government violates its own anti-trust laws and proof of that is indeed just look at cities like Philadelphia and New York City. Both tax over and above all other municipal government around them. The Sherman Act is divided into three sections. Section 1 prohibits specific means of anti-competitive conduct. Section 2 deals with end results that are anti-competitive in nature. Thus, these sections prevent businesses from violating the spirit of the Act, while technically remaining within the letter of the law. Section 3 simply extends the provisions of Section 1 to U.S. territories and the District of Columbia. Since local government municipalities are actually corporations, it appears that there is no exception for a government corporation from the Act.

Section 1:
“Every contract, combination in the form of trust or otherwise, or conspiracy, in restraint of trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, is declared to be illegal.”
Section 2:
“Every person who shall monopolize, or attempt to monopolize, or combine or conspire with any other person or persons, to monopolize any part of the trade or commerce among the several States, or with foreign nations, shall be deemed guilty of a felony…

A municipal corporation is a legal term for a local governing body, which includes cities, counties, towns, townships, charter townships, villages, and boroughs. The term can also be used to describe municipally-owned enterprises. Consequently, municipal corporations exist when such municipalities become self-governing entities under the laws of the state or province in which they are located. They receive a declaration of a municipal charter, which is actually a corporate certificate. Such charters are the legal document establishing a municipality.

Ford Motor Company created the assembly line in order to bring down the cost of a car from $850 in 1908 to $300 by 1925 so everyone could afford one. The price declines with scale. Government is clearly a monopoly because the cost of government only rises. They pass the laws and will seize your property or throw you in prison if you do not pay your taxes. That is EXACTLY the same scheme as the Mafia Protection scam – pay or you get trouble.

Government violates its own laws and acts the same as any criminal organization. They know then are a monopoly for they control the rule of law and the means of prosecution. This is a deadly combination that defeats liberty. There is no possible way that we live in a “free society” for we are “free” only as long as we obey whatever law they write even if it conflicts with the Ten Commandments, ethics, or morality.

 

Nov 21 2017

The Approaching Famine


Armstrong Economics Blog/Agriculture

Re-Posted Nov 21, 2017 by Martin Armstrong

The most serious forecast that we see from our computer models has been a rise in agricultural prices caused by Global Cooling – not Global Warming. Crops cannot grow without the sun and water. Historically, when the weather turns cold, the crops fail.

There is no question that food prices will rise during periods of war when crops cannot be planted and armies require food on a priority allotment.

However, Mother Nature sticks her finger into the pot to stir things up. The famine cycle is also an 8.6-year frequency, but the volatility aspect comes in units of 12 rather than 6.

   

Our database on wheat from 1259 forward (excluding our data on the Roman Empire grain prices), reveals that there is a serious risk of famine from 2020 onward. It appears that we may very well enter a 12-year rally into the year 2032. Our Bifurcation Models are reflecting also a gap in time between 2020 and 2031 suggesting a trend appears to last for that period of time.

The downside of taxation, and particularly inheritance taxes, has driven farmers to sell their land to conglomerates just to pay the inheritance taxes. This has resulted in genetically altering crops to increase yield. While genetically altered crops do not really appear to present a major health concern as many seem to argue, the real danger is the fact that during the past 100 years, 94% of the world’s edible seed varieties have vanished.

The downside of socialism which has attacked the rich, we have sacrificed the historical model in our food supply for corporate decision making that bribes politicians handing them their needed money to remain in office with each election. The consequence of this corruption has been the concentration of our food supply into an ever-shrinking basket of diversity. Today, 75% of the world’s food comes from only 12 plants and 5 animal species (see source). This lack of biodiversity has seriously increased this risk of widespread crop disease, and throw in the climate change turning colder, corporate decisions are not the way to protect society. Corporate boards are typically dominated by lawyers and accountants. They are not scientists nor do they even make proper decisions for investment or currency hedging. Corporations will never be able to cope with a sudden change and then make decisions that will impact the world. Major companies, such as Monsanto, could find themselves in control of the fate of human existence with the decisions being made by lawyers and accountants fixated on their bottom-line.

The period ahead, 2020-2032, appears to offer something much more different. While politicians keep pushing Global Warming because they can tax emissions, the risk of a monumental human disaster lies in the opposite direction.

The entire theory of Ice Ages emerged after the discovery in 1772 of wooly rhinos and mammoths were frozen in ice with plants still in their stomachs. Suddenly, science woke up and came to the shocking realization that climate can change drastically with no notice.

We have the technology today to drow food inside without even soil. This is something one should consider to put in your basement as 2020 approaches on the horizon.