Thanks to Bankers – Student Loans Are Suppressing our Future & Destroying the Real Estate Market


I have warned that the entire Student Loan Crisis has significantly altered the economy thanks to the Clintons courting the New York bankers making Student Loans the exception to bankruptcy. In Florida, like many other states, if you are in default on your student loans, the medical license to obtained is suspended. The Florida State Board of health has stated that some 900 healthcare workers were in danger of losing their license over the past two years because they were in default of their student loans. The board clarified it worked out repayment plans with most of those workers. It estimates the actual number of health care license suspensions is between 90 and 120 since November 2016. We may yet see the Yellow Vest Movement erupt in the United States over Student Loans.

The situation with student loans has gone from bad to worse. Bankers will try to get the parents to still co-sign for their child – DO NOT DO SUCH A THING!!!!! The degrees are worthless in most fields except health and law. The bankers have circumvented all your legal rights because the student loan is the exception to bankruptcy so they can take your house and you cannot even argue fraud.

Then there is the fact that even death does not relieve a parent of a student loan. Marcia DeOliveira-Longinetti’s son was killed, and after death, the remaining balance of his federal student loans were written off, but not by the state of  New Jersey. The state told his mother, “Your request does not meet the threshold for loan forgiveness.” What the Clintons did to students is really horrible. Even Zillow’s research, the big realtor, has reported that student debt has impacted the real estate market in many ways reducing future buyers.

FOX News reported that the U.S. Marshals Service in Houston was arresting people for failing to pay their outstanding federal student loans. Actually, Paul Aker, the subject of the Fox News report, failed to appear in court so the court sent U.S. Marshals to his home where he was arrested for a $1500 federal student loan he received in 1987. Of course, when they arrest anyone, the reason is irrelevant. Everyone is treated the same. If he ran, they would have shot him in the back and killed him on the spot and they would NEVER be prosecuted.

After seven U.S. Marshals burst into Aker’s home with guns drawn, they took him to federal court where he had to sign a payment plan for the 29-year-old school loan. Thank you, Hillary. I honestly do not know how anyone could have possibly voted for her. This is totally insane. The judge could just as easily thrown him in prison on contempt of court and not release him until he pays the $1500. It’s all about a judge’s power to act as if he still represents a king.

The Student Loan Crisis is serious. The US census showed that one-third of children over 30 were still living with their parents. This is also taking place in Britain thanks to rising taxes which lower disposable income. There are greater odds of your children living with you until they are 35. The real shocking number is that 40% of millennials are still dependent on mom and dad. The excuses seem endless. Student Loan debt can make buying a home IMPOSSIBLE! This is part of the reason real estate has been in a bear market since 2007 when we look at the average home.

realestate

The entire Student Loan Crisis has altered the real estate market significantly. While the High-End rallied into 2015 as capital was trying to get off the grid, as one friend in the real estate business put it, if prices ever got back to 2007, 50% of the State of New Jersey would go up for sale. The average market for homes has been declining overall. There are pockets where houses have risen, but these upon close inspection are the destinations where people are fleeing to from states like California, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut among others.

The real estate profile has another weight dragging it down – TAXES. Real Estate is IMMOVABLEand as states go broke, they keep raising property taxes. The states with NET declines in population because the smart people have been fleeing, leaving behind people who are not paying attention and become trapped because there are no buyers. One friend here in Florida moved from New Jersey and rents out his home back there because he cannot sell it. He rents it at this stage just to pay the taxes.

The states with no income taxes are a net migration seeking refuge from other places. Florida seems to get New Jersey, New York, and Connecticut. Nevada and Texas are getting those fleeing Illinois and California. Nonetheless, the overall view of real estate looks rather grim into 2032 insofar as scoring REAL gains over the depreciation in the purchasing power of a currency. Then add the rising interest rates and you will discover that bankers are no longer willing to lend money at fixed rates for 30 years.

 

When is Printing Money Deflationary rather than Inflationary


QUESTION: It seems the Left Wing Progressives in the US House (opponents of Pelosi) have adopted the Money Market Theory of Prof. Stephanie Kelton of U of MO.-Kansas City to justify unlimited deficit spending of the US Govt. OK as the Govt. can finance its deficits by unlimited currency printing.

Would you please comment.

Thanks and keep up the good work.

MP.

ANSWER: Actually, there would be no issue if the government simply created money to fund its normal expenditure. Historically, that will produce very modest inflation. The crisis is when you borrow to fund that deficit spending. In 2019, interest expenditures may now exceed the cost of defense. It is far cheaper to create the money needed than borrow and keep rolling the deficits forever. Then the cumulative interest keeps rising and crowds out all other expenditures. This is what is happening.

The process underway creates DEFLATION, not INFLATION, because the governments keep raising taxes to fund the deficits and that reduces the disposable income. This is why we see riots in France. Yes, people earn more, but they are being left with an eroding disposable income base. Governments need to fund themselves so they raise taxes. But the interest expenditures keep rising and consume all other areas of spending. It becomes a self-defeating process that leads to the crash and burn.

 

The British Press


Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion

Trump & China Trade Deal – Cyclically On Target? When Mexican Coins Traded at a Premium to America’s


QUESTION: Marty; Are there any cycles dealing with the trade dispute with China that are relevant?

OP

ANSWER: Actually, yes. The United States created a two-tier monetary system in 1873 to accommodate trade with China who was on a silver standard rather than gold. The actual timing is 17 intervals if the 8.6-year frequency of the ECM, which brings us to 2019.2 (March 19th, 2019). The US began to mint two types of silver dollars. The “Trade Dollar” was used to make payments to China for their standard was different from the West. The idea was promoted by the silver miners because the price of silver began to decline due to increased mining efforts in the western United States.

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The silver miners effectively donated huge money to the Democrats to support the price of silver, which ended up nearly bankrupting the United States by 1896 and gave the Democrats the name “Silver Democrats.” It was the presidential election of 1896 in which William Jennings Bryan, the Democratic candidate for president, made his fiery speech that the cancelation of the silver mandates during the Panic of 1893 placed the United States exclusively on a gold standard. The Democrats stood against gold and sought to overvalue silver to satisfy the silver miners who were funding the Democrats back then.

The first trade dollars were struck in 1873, and the majority of the coins were sent to China. Curiously enough, as they began to flood the economy, the coins were officially demonetized in 1876 becoming the first US currency to actually be canceled. Nevertheless, the coins continued to circulate. The actual production ended in 1878. The trade dollar was re-monetized when the Coinage Act of 1965 was signed into law. The main coin in world trade had been the Spanish 8-reales. This became the basis of the American dollar. The Chinese had grown accustomed to the Spanish silver coins and this became their standard. Lacking the true ability to read Western languages, the Chinese were very sensitive to any changes in the coin’s design. Therefore, they were reluctant to accept any coin that was unfamiliar to them. The American silver dollar, 7.5 grains (0.49 g) lighter than its Spanish pillar dollars, which made them unacceptable in Asia. This was the reason for American merchants who had to trade only in Spanish coins during the 1800s which were carrying a premium to American coins.

It was in 1866 when the monetary system in Asia went into chaos. Maximilian I (1864 – 1867) was the only monarch of the Second Mexican Empire. He was a younger brother of the Austrian emperor Franz Joseph I. Maximilian traveled to Mexico and declared himself Emperor of Mexico on April 10th, 1864. He changed the monetary system from reales to peso. The historic 8 reales suddenly became 1 peso in 1866 with his portrait in the European tradition. This altered the Mexican pieces that were recognized in trade to a premium over even the US dollar. Therefore, starting in 1866, this design change caused widespread nonacceptance of the Mexican coins in China. This simple design change altered the coin which had been accepted throughout Asia as the standard.

This is the backdrop to how the Financial Capital of the World slipped through the reign of power from the Spanish to America. Most people have no idea that Mexican coinage was more valuable than America’s prior to 1866.

Merkel & Macron Signing Treaty to Create a European Army


Merkel and Macron, two politicians who cannot muster even a majority of their people for support, signed a Franco-German friendship treaty which has allowed them to boast that this is the first step to creating a European Army. There is a mad rush behind the curtain to create a European Army, not to protect Europe from Putin, but to protect the government in Brussels from the people they rule. They are very much aware that the best way to secure power is to have a foreign army.

Nike-Riot

In Constantinople during the Byzantine Empire, Emperor Justinian faced the same issue as Macron — a rising discontent. The local lack of support from both the police and military of the Emperor embolden the people to rise up. They went as far as to declare a new emperor, Hypatius. Justinian was about to flee the city for his life when his wife stopped him. She pointed to an army outside the city which was not made up of local Greeks. He ordered the army to enter the city to protect him. They slaughtered what we would call today the Yellow Vests, killing some 30,000 protesters.

This lesson of the Nika Revolt (January 13, 532 AD) is perhaps not openly discussed in public circles, but it is WELL KNOWN behind the curtain. This is why they need a European Army for Greeks would have no problem killing Germans when ordered and Germans would have not problem killing Italians when ordered. The key to maintaining order is always to use police/troops that are NEVER local.

Hopefully, that political ploy will fail before it can really come into play

Reversals v Technical Analysis


QUESTION: Hello Mr. Armstrong, Thank you for your services and commitment to society! I read your Blog daily and the wealth of information you provide is breathtaking. My question, is it possible to add a service to the GMW, where we can draw our personalized trendlines and where Socrates would provide us our Reversals based on our chart drawings, similar to what you provided to those that were on the Beta version of Socrates? This would be a fantastic added service that can be charged on a per month or yearly basis. I have had a difficult time finding on the internet a charting system that is simple and straightforward as your Socrates system.

Also, if you need future assistance with the “medical” Socrates, I would be honored to assist freely. I have over 25+ years in the medical field and can relate 100% what you went through with your mom during her last days here on earth. Your situation is very common and that was one of the main reason I left the medical field and searched for another career. The medical industry is very corrupt from the CEO’s, pharmaceutical companies, physician all the way down to the nurses, therapist, x-ray tech and so on. We need to change our system. Currently, hospitals are places to avoid, they are a revolving door and once you are admitted to the hospital, there is no way out.

Thank you for your time.

K

ANSWER: The Reversals are not generated from technical analysis. They are based entirely upon physics with very complex formulas. Therefore, technical analysis can provide visual confirmation and target objectives. Timing is the dominant factor, for if you run out of time before a Directional Change, then the Reversals will confirm or deny a change in that directional trend.

Panic Cycles v Waterfall Events


COMMENT: Hi There,
I suggest you do an article on the terminology you use.For example I noted that on your commentary on centamin Egypt you use the term waterfall pattern. You also you use the term panic cycle.An article on these words and their meaning would be helpful.
Thanks

S

REPLY: We do have terminology is the Glossary on this site. The Waterfall Event is a term I coined to describe what I discovered in the study of the rise and fall of empires, nations, and city-states. This differs from a Panic Cycle which reflects just a short-term increase in volatility, which can exceed the previous session high and penetrate the previous session low or make a big move in one direction.  They do not imply the destruction of the system being observed or an individual market.

I have encountered the Waterfall Events such as the collapse of Venice to the 1931 Sovereign DebtCrisis where the foreign government bonds listed on the New York Stock Exchange simple defaulted and went to zero. Thus, the Waterfall is a sharp collapse that will unfold in a market with a decline of generally greater than 50%.

 

Italy’s Silvio Berlusconi to Run for EU Seat


Silvio Berlusconi announced his candidacy for European elections in May due to a “sense of responsibility.” Indeed, this may be the best thing that ever happened. The EU pulled off a coup secretly behind the scenes to drive him from office because he wanted to take Italy out of the euro to save his country. Our deep sources all confirmed the EU intervened in the Italian elections to remove Berlusconi, which was effectively a coup back in 2013.

Southern Europe has been seriously disrupted from joining the euro. They were forced to convert their past debts to euros and then the euro doubled in value, causing their real world national debts to double in terms of international value. Is it any wonder their economies have been in a death spiral? Unemployment among the youth has reached 60% in some regions, and they are now known as “The Lost Generation.”

The May elections for the EU are looking like a lot more anti-EU and people will be taking up seats in Brussels.

The Difference between 2020 and 2032


QUESTION: Hi Martin,

My girlfriend brought up a point about your work during coffee this morning. Basically, she’s confused about the two dates you often mention, 2020 and 2032. She wants to know which date (2020, 2032) you expect the markets move into crises mode due to the lack of confidence in government. I tried to explain but my insight wasn’t good enough.

Could you explain in a future blog the difference between these dates and what you (Socrates) expect to happen during these points in time?

Thanks,
J

ANSWER: The 2032 date is the conclusion of this Private Wave. That is when the power of the West will begin to shift to China for the next cycle that begins thereafter. The 2020 date is when the confidence begins to noticeably begin to turn down for the AVERAGE person.  You can “feel” it in the air already. What the Democrats have done is simply unbelievable. Sure the people who hate Trump cheer. But they fail to understand the system. Whatever they do to the Republicans sets the stage for what will be considered “normal” for the Republicans to do to the Democrats if power shifts.

I have explained that the Democratic victory in the House was really a disaster for this has allowed nothing but the next two years to be confrontation as we are witnessing on the funding of the wall which is only $5.7 billion. In Fiscal Year 2019, the federal budget will be $4.407 trillion. The U.S. government estimates it will receive $3.422 trillion in revenue. That creates a $985 billion deficit for October 1st, 2018 through September 30, 2019. Not only is this less than a single week’s interest payment of $6.7 billion, it is .001% of the annual budget. It is so meaningless it illustrates my point. The Democrats think all they have to do is demonize Trump and OPPOSE absolutely everything he proposes to win the White House in 2020.

We will be running the computer models on the 2020 election. But preliminary indications show that we will see a sharp rise in violence. Neither side will accept the results.

May Survives No-Confidence Vote but has until Monday 21st to present New Proposal


The British pound moved higher following the British Prime Minister Theresa May’s government narrowly surviving a no confidence vote brought by the opposition over the handling of BREXIT. The vote was narrow with May winning by just 19 votes. Our sources were correct that she would survive. However, while the 21st seems to be a target date of our models, the prime minister  has just three days to propose an alternative deal – that is January 21st. I find it curious how the computer picks weeks in advance of political events the targets for market movements that are driven by politics. There is clearly something beyond the headlines that the computer picks up.