Armstrong Economics Blog/Interest Rates
Re-Posted Aug 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: You said before you were advising corporates to issue long-term bonds and lock in the low rates. Even the US Treasury seems to be following your advice and are looking at issuing 50 and 100-year bonds. Do you give governments the same advice?
DK
ANSWER: If asked, of course, I advise to issue long-term debt NOW at these absurd low rates. I also advise individuals to lock in fixed-rate mortgages.
Germany just tried to issue negative interest 30-year bonds with a total offering of 2bn€ of which they only sold 824million were purchased. This is showing that this whole theory of negative interest rates as seen its day. The US is now even considering issuing 50-year and 100-years bonds as interest rates plummet.
I have reviewed the buyers of these negative bonds which now amount to $15 trillion outstanding globally. What is actually taking place in the market is really dominated by punters rather than investors. In other words, the people have been buying them to flip assuming rates would just go lower.
The crisis on the horizon is MASSIVE!!!! These punters are going to get caught as they did with the Russian bonds when they collapsed in 1998 which led to the Long-Term Capital Market crisis. This is a game of musical chairs. Nobody thinks twice as long as rates decline. But the appetite for negative yields does NOT exist insofar as people actually investing in them.
Yields have dipped negative on short-term 30 days paper during panics. The 30-day TBills went negative several times from December 2008 onward. The reason was clear. Capital feared the banks so they were willing to park money at a slightly negative rate.
This also corresponds to capital parking in blue-chip equities which created the peak in the PE ratio at the bottom of the crisis.
The trend looks to be getting ready to change when the ECM turns. BUYER BEWARE!!!!
We may yet see the biggest bubble in the modern history of finance explode far worse than the 2007-2009 debacle.
What to Expect at the 2019 WEC This Year
Armstrong Economics Blog/World Economic Conference
Re-Posted Aug 25, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Since we are nearing the turn in the ECM in January, will the focus be on how to position oneself for the next wave covering bonds, commodities, share markets, and currencies? You can smell this Monetary Crisis Cycle coming and the Sovereign Debt Crisis in the air. Has such a convergence ever taken place before?
BD
See you in Orlando
ANSWER: I am publishing for attendees for the first time the Dark Age Cycle. In addition the Manipulating the World Economy which is a detailed account of central banks and how the entire system has been managed which is now slipping through their fingers, we have indeed the first time in modern history when such things have converged. Historical accounts exist, but well before the 17th century so it is hard to provide daily charts to reflect upon.
I have also completed probably the most documented report on the precious metals ever written tracing the ratio and how these metals have responded in times of financial stress.
This report traces the ratio from 8:1 to 120:1 and why it has moved. Yet most of all, what has been completely overlooked is the fact that people do not understand that the ratio was manipulated as part of Quantitative Easing even under the gold standard. Sorry central bankers, it failed to work then and nearly bankrupted the economy.
I have also put together a report on the Hoarding of Dollars and the implications for the world Foreign exchange markets. Here you will have a guide to the currencies and how they will impact the future as we head into the Monetary Crisis Cycle in the years ahead.
Virtually 70% of the physical paper US currency is now circulating outside the United States. On top of that, there are now outstanding more $100 billions than $1.
As the world has turned toward trying to outlaw cash transactions to eliminating cash altogether outside the United States, the trend has shifted toward hoarding dollars that is just not considered in the analysis these days of the future prospects in currency. This report provides the forecasts fo all the strategy currencies going forward.
Also included will be the report we handed out at the Rome WEC early this year. We have not made this report available for sale. Here you will learn a shocking reality behind the curtain of the Euro.
The Fate of Europe is a very important report for you need to understand the backdrop to what we face going forward. Like the Great Depression, the crisis will begin in Europe and spread like a contagion.
Nigel Farage delivered the keynote speech at the Rome WEC. He called the World Economic Conferences we have been holding since 1985 – the “Alternative to Davos.”
In addition, attendees will be provided with the special report for Year-End on the World Share Markets – the Good, the Bad, & the Ugly. With the majority of economists now talking up a bear market and a recession in an effort to desperately overthrow Trump in the 2020 election, it is no wonder that the share market outlook is anything but clear.
The world share markets are by no means all in the same position. Their fates will also depend upon their underlying currency. Will Shanghai recover or continue to decline? Has the German DAX lost its gilt edge among European share markets? What about London in the face of BREXIT? Will the Southeast Asia markets be impacted by China trends?
Then attendees will also receiver the Monetary Crisis Report. Here we have provided the details on this cycle and how it has performed in the past with its implications for 2021/2022.
Granted, the price of the ticket virtually covers the cost of all these reports if purchased separately. In addition, we will be providing video updates as we head into this crisis so you are kept up to date as things unfold.
So welcome to this year’s 2019 World Economic Conference. We have reduced the number of seats this year because we had a large conference in Rome with over 300 attendees. These events have gotten too big so we are trying to reduce the size of Orlando and hopefully provide a more intimate setting as takes place with the overseas WEC events.
Dinner – Phare de Biarritz Light House…
August 24, 2019
President Trump and First Lady Melania arrive at the G7 Summit dinner in Biarritz France. The dinner event is being held at Phare de Biarritz, a mid-19th century light house with panoramic views of the French coast.
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First Lady Melania Trump is wearing a Pleated Technical Jersey Dress by Gucci tonight, paired with silver Louboutins, to attend the dinner.
The Unmitigated Arrogance of EU President Donald Tusk Toward Brexit….
August 24, 2019
Against the backdrop of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson arriving for the G7 summit in Biarritz, France, EU President Donald Tusk holds a press conference to announce the EU will work to block Britains’ exit from the collective, and will not accept terms.
The hubris and arrogance within this declaration, in advance of Johnson’s arrival, is exhibit ‘A’ for exactly the reason British citizens want out of this nonsense. Watch:
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The likelihood of Boris Johnson and Donald Trump forming an alliance against this insufferable EU collective is beginning to show in the relationships.
There is a strong likelihood PM Johnson and President Trump will form a mutually beneficial economic and trade alliance outside the EU. The euroweanies know this could be devastating to their controlled economic system; their economy is already in trouble.
This will not end well for the EU. Pride cometh before the fall.
What Trump and Johnson could construct is a bilateral trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K that has genuine reciprocity and negligible trade barriers. Like a trade freeway between the U.K and the U.S, but only between the U.K. and U.S.
With the EU no longer able to influence trade agreements involving the U.K. European companies, and countries (Poland, Hungary etc.) could get tariff-free access to the U.S. market by operating out of Britain, or using transnational shipping through Britain.
Simultaneously, the U.S. could ship tariff free into the EU (to a receiving EU corporation, or EU subsidiary of a U.S. corporation) by exporting to Britain. The UK would be the hub for massive economic activity between North America and Europe.
If France (the EU) is charging Canada a high duty for imported Canadian cheese; Canada, through the USMCA pact could ship to a holding company in Britain who would then transfer product (duty free) to the receiving French company who is operating in the U.K, and distributing in France. [A French company in the U.K. would receive in the U.K without the French (EU) duty.]
Eventually all corporations in the EU, who wanted to do business with North America, would start operations in the U.K….. OR, the EU would have to drop it’s one-way tariff policy (ie. the Marshall plan is ended). Think about the leverage this creates.
Of course this process would completely change the trade dynamic in Europe; and completely change the trade dynamic between Europe and North America. So how would Trump and Johnson start? Answer: Establish an interim tripwire to measure success. Hence you get this phrase:
“[…] Such a deal could last for something like six months, the official told reporters.”…
Of course an interim deal… because the EU bloc will respond to it… so a reevaluation at six months, prior to any massive investment outlays, is exactly what a CEO would create.
Donald Trump isn’t a politician, he’s working through a plan for what he views (we agree) is bigger than any ideological aspects. “Economic Security is National Security.”
During the G7 nuance look for the manipulative globalists to try and keep President Trump and Boris Johnson apart during the non-scripted gatherings and assemblies.
The EU does not want the optics of President Trump and Prime Minister Boris Johnson broadcast to the world. Watch how hard it will be to find pictures of them together.
Australia Wants Two-Year Prison Sentences for Paying More Than $10,000 in Cash
Armstrong Economics Blog/Australia & Oceania
Re-Posted Aug 23, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
In Australia, they want to make it a criminal act with a penalty of 2 years in prison for purchasing anything with more than $10,000 in cash. Australia is really going off the deep end. They are desperately trying to eliminate all cash and are forcing people to have only bank accounts so they can tax them as they like. This ensures that when there are bank failures, they can just confiscate the people’s money to save the bankers. Australia began as a penal colony, and they seem to retain that idea that the people are really criminals in their minds and are not entitled to their own assets. This also explains why non-Americans are starting to hoard US currency around the world.
We should just accept it. Everything is our fault because we elect these people who then see us as evil. This is not going to end very nicely. What happens when it comes crashing down? Do the police start shooting citizens as has been the case in Venezuela?
Whatever happened to liberty, freedom, and morality? I do not know. I was in the airport going through security and the guy in front probably had not flown in decades. He was appalled at having to take his shoes off, and then his belt. He had $15,000 in cash and they demanded to see his ticket for if it was overseas, they would have confiscated the whole thing. He was going on a domestic flight. He asked, what else? Should he just strip naked? They finally said just go. In Australia, it would be a small tiny step to arrest you for just having more than $10,000 in cash.
There were two girls between me and that gentleman. They were the probably early 20s. Their comments were telling. They said: This guy is stupid. You always have to take your shoes off. What’s he doing with all that money? So, here was one chap who hadn’t flown since 2001 and then two 20-somethings who had no idea that there was once upon a time when you did not have to go through all of this. They now see virtual strip searches as normal. Oh, how things change.
There are more $100 Bills in Circulation than $1 Bills
Armstrong Economics Blog/USD $
Re-Posted Aug 22, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
There are now officially more $100 bills in circulation than $1 bills. The interesting aspect is that when we dig deeper, what is revealed is the fact that the bulk of them are being hoarded outside the United States. This is very interesting for we see the same basic trend emerging from the dollar v other currencies. There is a shift to the dollar as the US economy continues to hold up the entire world.
Once again, even going back to 1995, estimates placed about $200 billion to $250 billion of U.S. currency was circulating abroad. That was more than 50% given the physical money supply even back then was about $375 billion in circulation outside of banks. More recently, the amount of US currency in circulation outside the United States has now exceeded 70%. The world is hoarding dollars for they fear the cancellation of their own currencies as talk of eliminating cash in Europe has escalated with the prospect of Christine Lagarde replacing Draghi.
As Americans have moved increasingly toward debit and credit cards, the rest of the world has been sucking-up US dollars beyond belief. Anyone who questions whether the US dollar is the reserve currency, well the cash is not being held by governments or central banks. The people are now hoarding US dollars at record levels. Having some cash might not be such a bad thing.
Medical Industry #1 Contributors to Bribing Congress
Armstrong Economics Blog/Opinion
Re-Posted Aug 22, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: “Kamala Harris – Medicare for All”
Doctors’ incomes are such a small part of the issue. You might have mentioned the obscene theft that prevails for pharmaceuticals and medical devices, the bloated salaries of hospital administrators, facility fees attached to medical service bills. The disappearance of competition in the field due to rank and illegal monopolism. I could go on. And on. But I do think you know this stuff already.
FP
REPLY: Yes you are correct. Both hospitals and education have become corrupted because they are monopolies to a large extent funded by the government. Private practitioners are being driven out of business by hospital groups which are effectively like monopolies. They have become money-making operations. It is by no means about caring for the patients. It is how much can they make off of people these days.
Without serious reform and investigation into this trend, there is no hope of coming up with any plan that will help the people. As soon as the government promises to pay, there goes all credibility.
This is why I say the hospital groups must become more like public utilities. Until that happens, healthcare will only get more expensive until their greed prices these hospital groups out of existence.
People do not realize but Pharmaceuticals/Health Products are the #1 contributor as an industry to bribing Congress. They have given almost $4 billion to them to get this monopoly status. They sell drugs cheaper in other countries they lobby Congress to prevent Americans from buying the same drugs in Canada. This proves that our pretend “representatives” never represent the people first.
Yes, they even beat the bankers!!!!!!!
The Gold Standard Fell As All Currency Pegs Do
Armstrong Economics Blog/Foreign Exchange
Re-Posted Aug 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Dear Marty,
In your recent blog about BREXIT, and. “Remainers acting in self-interest”, you produced an ONS graph showing UK’s growth rates before and after joining the EU (previously known as the Common Market), and concluded: “Britain has NEVER received a fair deal since joining the EU”.
Surely you have overlooked a groundbreaking event in the early 1970s, which has shaped economic cycles and led us to where we are today: Nixon’s fateful decision to ditch the Gold Standard?
Regards,
Raj
ANSWER: No, the two are not connected. Bretton Woods collapsed on August 15th, 1971. The peak in Britain’s GDP came in 1973. Nixon closing the gold window was by no means discretionary. To the contrary, there was no alternative.
The gold standard failed as it always does. You simply CANNOT FIX the value of money. It was stupid to create Bretton Woods with a fixed exchange rate. Once again, people argue currency manipulation for trade when the free markets control the value of currencies today. China has tried to support the yuan, not suppress it for trade benefits.
The government cannot fix the money at some arbitrary value and then spend whatever they want, thereby increasing the supply of the currency while keeping the value to gold fixed. A grade-school child could figure out the inevitable collapse. I was called into the ERM Crisis for they overthrew Maggie Thatcher to try to take the pound into the coming Euro. They fixed the pound at absurd levels and they created Black Wednesday. I was called because again I warned this would fail but only Maggie would listen. They tried to fix the pound in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and it blew up in their face.
Currency pegs all face the same fate. The British attempt to fix the pound after World War I was absurd. On September 20, 1931, Britain abandoned the gold standard. It was an event that has scarred political memories for two generations, for the financial crisis which preceded it led to the fall of the minority Labour administration and the decision by its leader, Ramsay MacDonald, to form the National Government with the help of the Conservatives. Electoral catastrophe followed for Labour, and many within the party never forgave MacDonald. Labour’s suspicion of the international banking community, which played a part in the government’s fall, dates from this experience, too.
The Swiss tried to peg the currency against the euro and that blew up. There is no exception in history. The fate of pegs is always the same because there is this thing we call the business cycle.
The Propaganda Trade on the Pound – History Repeats
Armstrong Economics Blog/BRITAIN
Re-Posted Aug 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
COMMENT: Dear Marty,
In your recent blog about BREXIT and the Yellow Hammer leak, you say: “British pound is still under pressure as the propaganda machine is in full force”.
Surely anyone can see is that the £ falls whenever no-deal propaganda is in the ascendancy, and £ rises when Remain or Brexit with a deal is trending higher???
R
REPLY: This is the same thing as when the pound was not going to join the euro. The propaganda was that the pound was going to collapse and Britain would not be able to export unless it joined the Euro. I cannot tell you how many companies we had to rescue from shorting the pound out of fear it would collapse. The propaganda even convinced the top German auto manufacturers, Mercedes, and they shorted the pound for two years worth of sales. The exact opposite took place. We were called in to reverse all the hedges that lost $1 billion because of that nonsense. They then set up a meeting with the board of Daimler which was separate back then. The board had passed a resolution that once a hedge was taken they would let it run. We made back the $1 billion for Mercedes and the last day of the fiscal year, Daimler and Mercedes were merged to hide the $1 billion loss at Daimler.
Despite all the propaganda that desperately tried to say Britain should ditch the pound and join the euro, what occurred was exactly the opposite of the underlying trend. The euro declined religiously into May 2000 before a sustainable rally took place. The number of short positions against the pound sterling was staggering. It felt like we became simply a British firm in those days putting out fires the bankers all started with their recommendations to short sterling.
With the propaganda machine, we are once again in the very same position with the same absurdity that the pound will crash and Britain will sink below the wave if they do not surrender sovereignty to Brussels. They always preach the same doom and gloom about trade playing the same scenario with the same pitch we heard back in the 90s. They just roll out the same BS every single time.
Cities are Harassing Homeowners with Excessive Fines
Armstrong Economics Blog/The Hunt for Taxes
Posted Aug 21, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
I have been warning about the hunt for taxes. You must realize that the worst is unfolding at the state and municipal levels of local governments because they cannot create money as is the case at the federal levels. Therefore, they pass draconian laws and enforce insane things just to raise money.
In New Jersey, I was given a parking ticket in a private parking lot. Of course, it was illegal. They know you will pay the $35 rather than take a whole day off from work to fight an illegal ticket in the first place.
Marlton, New Jersey, one of the most corrupt towns in the state, set up roadblocks during Rush Hour. I was caught up in these unconstitutional money grabs twice. You have to show your license, registration, and insurance card. Missing anything and you were sent to another line for your $125 ticket. Sure you can fight it. You will spend $125,000 and win.
They know lawyers charged way higher than any other profession to ensure you cannot actually fight illegal actions by the states. This is part of the cycle and it will end in civil unrest. Welcome to the end of this wave of the Economic Confidence Model.
Centinel2012 