May 19 2023

COLLUSION DELUSION: It’s Time for Russia Hoax Accountability, Live with NUNES & DC DRAINO | Ep. 23

By Kimberly Guilfoyle Originally posted on Rumble on: May 18, 4:07 pm EDT

May 19 2023

April Home Prices Reflect Largest Year-Over-Year Drop in Decade, April Prices Drop 1.7%, Decline 23.2% from Prior Year

Posted originally on the CTH on May 18, 2023 | Sundance

Homeowner equity is being erased. As higher interest rates continue to put pressure on borrowers, the ability of the average person to afford a mortgage diminishes. Higher mortgage rates lead to downward pressure on residential home values as fewer borrowers can afford higher payments. Simultaneously, commercial real estate is dropping in value as vacancies continue increasing.

Put both of these issues together and already tenuous banks holding mortgage bonds as assets can become more unstable.

This dynamic creates the continual tremors in the background of an economy already suffering from high inflation and low consumer purchasing of durable goods.

A perfect storm starts to realize.

(Wall Street Journal) – Sales of previously owned homes fell in April from the prior month and prices declined from a year earlier by the most in more than 11 years.

U.S. existing home sales, which make up most of the housing market, fell 3.4% in April from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.28 million, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday. April sales fell 23.2% from a year earlier.

The national median existing-home price fell 1.7% in April from a year earlier to $388,800, the biggest year-over-year price decline since January 2012, NAR said. Median prices, which aren’t seasonally adjusted, were down 6% from a record $413,800 in June. Home prices have fallen the most in the western half of the U.S., while prices continue to rise from a year earlier in many eastern markets. (read more)

Before looking at today’s graph showing median existing home values, remember me saying this in 2021?:

“I said in June, at a macro level home prices had reached their peak (last two weeks of May, first two weeks of June was apex). Obviously, there are some geographic home value increases still happening as COVID related regional issues and work opportunities are shifting populations. There is also a lag and ripple effect that takes time to work through the economy. The macro-apex will not be visible until next year.”

When I said that in 2021, people said I was wrong. Well, with hindsight now visible within the data as it is reflected, look at the result:

May and June 2021 was the peak of year-over-year percent of change in median home value increases.

So, what was going on?

As CTH outlined in 2022: If you look closely at the timing (keep in mind the data reporting lag) what you will notice is that financial institutions began a big surge in purchasing hard assets, specifically real estate, as soon as Joe Biden took office (Jan ’21), and the economic policy became evident. Intangible financial instruments became an immediate risk as the professional financial control groups recognized energy policy would drive inflation (supply side) and devalued money would fuel it (demand side).

As an offset to predictable inflationary policy (the insiders’ game), institutional money (Blackrock, Vanguard, etc) was moved into hard assets with tangible value.

This shift in asset allocation, institutional sales, helped fuel a false surge in home prices and their valuations. CTH was writing about this in 2021, and sounding alarms as it took place. 25% of all real estate purchases were being made by institutional investors.

We The People got screwed.

The dynamic was predictable. The Biden administration economic policy, energy policy and monetary policy, was going to cause massive inflation. CTH was shouting about it in early 2021 and warning everyone to prepare for waves of price increases that would naturally surface first on high-turn consumable goods, and then embed into longer-term durable goods.

Despite claims to the contrary, this 2021 inflationary explosion had nothing to do with the pandemic or supply chain shortages. It was entirely self-created by western governmental policy – the collective ‘Build Back Better’ agenda. You can see now from the background moves within the financial sectors, they too knew the reality and their money shifts reflected that despite their ‘transitory’ pretending they were mitigating their own exposure.

We the People were yet again going to be victims of specifically intended monetary, regulatory, energy and economic policy.

The investment class rulers of the WEF assembly shifted assets to avoid the pain that we would feel. We “would own nothing and be happy,” and their shifts would position them to own everything and be in control.

Overall govt spending and regulatory controls drove inflation for these past two years. The ‘demand side’ was blamed, despite the lack of demand. I will be proven right when history is concluded with this. Interest rates were raised by central banks in an effort to support the policies that are driving ‘supply side’ inflation – not demand side.

Energy policy was/is crushing the consumer by driving up the cost of all goods and services. To support the overall goal of changing global energy resource and development (a false and controlled global operation), central banks raised interest rates. Various western economies, including our own, have been pushed deeper into a state of contraction by central banks crushing consumer demand, and eliminating investment via increased borrowing costs.

In short, the goal was/is to lower energy consumption by shrinking the economic activity. This, according to the BBB plan, was needed at the same time as energy development was reduced. These economic outcomes are not organic, they are all being controlled by collective western government agreement.

Within this control dynamic, there was always going to be a point where the reaction of the people to their economic reality means the financial control elements need to shift direction. They will always maximize profit and minimized risk, while knowing what the larger objective remains.

Just like every other durable good, housing demand contracts as prices and costs become unaffordable. The loss of equity within your home is damaging to your own value or ability to borrow against it.

From the perspective of an institutional asset, that same equity drop is an investment loss. However, the investment loss is not materialized until the sale of the lower valued asset is completed. Retaining declining real estate on investment books creates an artificially high appearance of the investment result; unless and until the real estate is sold at a diminished value.

As mortgage rates rise, just as a consumer would pull back from the housing market, so too will institutional investment groups now control the slow dumping of the asset to remove the equity they pumped into it. Much of the investment housing will be retained as rental housing, with the monthly rents being part of the returns on the investments. However, as this dynamic unfolds, further investment purchases of houses stop, because the asset overall is declining in value. This halt of investment activity also worsens a steeper drop in home values.

May 18 2023

The COVID Refinance Boom is Over – See Who Benefitted

Armstrong EconomicsBlog/Real Estate Re-Posted May 18, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

New mortgage originations have reached their lowest level since Q2 of 2014. Inventory remains historically low, shelter costs are historically high, and it makes no sense for most to refinance with current mortgage rates over 6% on the 30-year. Originations, including refinances, came in at $323.5 billion during Q1 of 2023. The NY Fed reported that borrowing in general has reached $17.5 trillion, a $150 billion increase, as families grapple with inflation. The refinance boom in 2020 and 2021 will impact real estate for generations to come.

The NY Fed discusses the COVID refinance boom (Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021) in a recent article. Fourteen million mortgages were refinanced during this period when mortgage rates reached record lows. Mortgage rates plummeted 200 bp from Nov. 2018 to November 2020. The last upticks in refinances occurred in 2003 and again in 2013 when rates also fell 200 bp. However, rates were at their lowest level during the COVID refinance boom, allowing many to take out equity from their homes and reinvest. Home equity reached a record high in the time leading up to the pandemic, and the continued rise in home prices provided numerous owners with additional equity.

One-third of all outstanding mortgages were refinanced over the span of 7 quarters. About 64% of refinances were “rate refinances,” classified as those with a balance increase of less than 5% of the mortgage amount. Those who chose this route saved an average of $220 per month. Cash-out refinancers took out $82,000 on average, increasing monthly payments by $150. Around 5 million borrowers extracted a total of $430 billion during the COVID refinance boom—a significant sum.

The 9 million who did not extract equity reduced mortgage payments by $24 billion annually. These figures are something I do not expect to see again in my lifetime. Those holding their breath for rates to drop under 3% again should come up for air. Homeowners are disincentivized to sell at current rates, not to mention home prices are AT LEAST 36% higher than before the pandemic. Everyone’s investment strategy is unique, but those who were able to use their home’s equity to invest during the bottom of the market made out well. The period between Q2 of 2020 to Q4 of 2021 will be a reference point for years to come.

May 18 2023

Home Depot Cuts Forecasts, Target Earnings Suffer – Watch Comparable Same Store Sales, Now We Are Cycling Sales Value of Inflation

Posted originally on the CTH on May 18, 2023 | Sundance

Those of you who are keen financially minded individuals will note exactly what is happening in these recent reports, HOME DEPT HERE – TARGET HERE. Those of you who are retail investors in the stock market might also see the bigger picture.

Home Depot and Target essentially share the same customer base or market audience. They service a larger segment of the American middle class. Both companies are reporting negative financial outcomes as a result of low comparable sales, or same store sales comparisons, to last year. This should not be a surprise, yet Wall Street is seemingly caught off guard.

Right now, we are on the tail end of the massive inflation cycle that took place in 2021 through 2022. Current inflation, as measured by the rate of price increase over the same period last year, is lower.

Now we are starting to see companies reporting sales comparable without the benefit of massive inflation to assist.

Example – when inflation is running at 10%, a company can report 8% sales growth, and everyone smiles. However, the sales growth was created by the inflation. The actual unit sales of goods have declined; the store is reporting higher sales because the prices are higher. When the sales cycle through to lower inflationary comparisons, the drop in unit sales shows up as drops in topline sales. This is the cause of both Target and Home Depot now reporting lower than expected comparable sales versus last year.

In real terms, this is why using sales data as a measure of economic growth is less valuable during periods of high inflation. Significant inflation hides the diminished sales of units, which should be the true measure of sales growth. I have been tracking unit sales as a measure of economic activity, and the truth is that unit sales have been declining since the fourth quarter of 2021.

Inflation was hiding the recession, and as the rate of price increase diminishes, the sales contraction will show the recession. This is what Target and Home Depot are reporting, and we can all expect to see the same over the next 90 days. Retail stocks will drop as the earnings and sales reports are revised down due to lower inflation.

Wall Street Journal – Target sales suffered in the most recent quarter as shoppers stopped splurging as frequently on trendy clothes, home goods and other items that make up the bulk of the retailer’s annual revenue.

Comparable sales, those from stores and digital channels operating for at least 12 months, came in flat for the quarter ended April 29 compared with the same period last year. That is slightly lower than the previous quarter’s 0.7% rise and lower than analysts’ expectations for a 0.2% sales rise in the most recent quarter, according to estimates from FactSet.

Sales of food and beverage, beauty and home essentials such as detergent rose, while demand for apparel, home goods and items such as toys and electronics fell sharply in the most recent quarter as shoppers further pulled back on discretionary spending, said Target executives on a call with analysts Wednesday. The latter discretionary categories make up around 54% of Target’s annual sales, according to financial filings. (read more)

Reuters – Home Depot Inc (HD.N) on Tuesday cut its annual sales forecast and projected a steeper-than-expected decline in profit, stoking fears about inflation-wary consumers trimming discretionary spending as a big earnings week for U.S. retailers rolls out.

Shares of the largest U.S. home improvement chain, which also blamed a wet start to Spring and falling lumber prices for a first-quarter sales miss, tumbled about 4%, while those of smaller rival Lowe’s Cos Inc (LOW.N) dropped nearly 3%.

[…] Demand was weak for discretionary items like patio furniture and grills, as well as appliances, flooring, kitchen and bath, said William Bastek, executive vice president of merchandising at Home Depot.

[…] Home Depot now expects fiscal 2023 comparable sales to fall between 2% and 5%, compared to its prior outlook for nearly flat sales. (read more)

Next up…. Walmart

May 17 2023

America Has Been Invaded

Armstrong Economics Blog/USA Current Events re-Posted May 17, 2023 by Martin Armstrong

The end of Title 42 has been an absolute disaster. There is no telling how many migrants entered the border last week. These are not simply women and children seeking a new life. The majority of those entering are military-aged MEN who feel entitled to enter America illegally. These are not struggling individuals. American Door Dash drivers were sending food deliveries to the border as over 60,000 migrants lined up around the immediate border area in anticipation of midnight on May 11.

One extremely troubling issue is El Salvador’s recent crackdown on gang crime. The nation locked up all affiliated gang members and saw a drastic decrease in crime. The gang members who escaped had nowhere to go, and no one wanted to infringe on Mexico’s feared cartels. Neighboring Honduras was forced to follow suit after declaring a state of emergency over violent crime in November 2022. Guatemala would be wise to go this route as well, but gangs will be more successful when selling to people using the USD.

Haiti is in ruin and people have been attempting to flee for years. Venezuela’s economy is a glimpse at how well socialism works. Nicaragua and Cuba are also unfortunate examples. There is a reason people want to leave their home countries for a better life. Yet, there are no checks and balances. Every border state has said they’ve been overrun and overpowered by the huge influx of migrants.

An Afghan terrorist on the FBI’s wanted list was recently caught trying to cross the border near San Diego. Do people think this man was alone? On the days leading up to the end of Title 42, 30% of apprehended migrants escaped border custody. These are merely the people who were caught. Chairman Mark Green, R-Tenn. Admitted “we have no idea who is entering this country and being released into the U.S. interior.” Green commented that it is “chilling” to think of the 1.4 million migrants who already evaded Border Patrol under Biden before Title 42 ended.

The US has been compromised. The border is wide open and those who wish to come in without respecting the nation’s asylum laws may do so with little pushback. Our nation is already facing a housing shortage crisis, and cities with leaders who claimed to be refugee friendly are desperately trying to find a way to house and feed all of these people who cannot legally work in America. The problem is going to worsen in the coming weeks once cities realize what they have done by ignoring America’s border and permitting an invasion.

May 12 2023

Epic – Congressman Byron Donalds Drops the Atomic Sledgehammer of Truth on CNN Panel

May 11, 2023 | Sundance

Congressman Byron Donalds represents Southwest Florida CD-19; he comes from good stock. After the CNN attack townhall in New Hampshire last night, Donalds appeared on a CNN panel to discuss.

Prior to Donalds joining the panel, the six other panelists were echo-chambering their narrative talking points without rebuttal. Donalds put that nonsense to rest. However, beyond the epic pushback, notice how the panel reacts to having their narrative challenged; this should be very familiar to people.

Notice how when confronted by an opposing viewpoint the panel uses a familiar tactic. Instead of discussing the policy points, the issues at the heart of the policy positions, the panel instead begins to question the person confronting them. “Do you want Ukraine to win,” is one question. “Do you accept the results of the 2020 election” is another.

The CNN panel approach is to make the person pushing back become the issue, because the points raised are antithetical to their belief system. This method of distraction is straight from the Alinsky rulebook about debating opposition. Byron Donalds succeeds because he doesn’t engage the nonsense. WATCH:

May 12 2023

Ron DeSantis Spent $500,000,000.00 For This

Posted originally on the CTH on May 11, 2023 | Sundance

The SuperPac supporting Ron DeSantis, called Never Back Down, has taken hundreds of millions of dollars from the Wall Street, billionaire, Sea Island, multinational corporation and hedge fund donors. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is injecting another $85 million from his leadership pac in Florida. All told, it is the largest single assembly of political cash in the history of presidential campaigning – estimated value well north of $500 million.

With all of that in mind, this is the best the communications team can come up with:

Now, please do not misconstrue what I am saying. I am not saying these people are just bad at their jobs. I am saying these are fundamentally stupid people.

This is the skillset of the professional Republican Party. This is what they are taught to do, study to do, sit around and spend millions in consultancy fees to come up with.

These are professional Republican operations…. They are also just idiots! This is why some of the billionaire funders have also paused, reevaluated and stepped back from the DeSantis nonsense. The DeSantis crew are sending out Instagram selfie-pics of their lunches while cheering for their team.

This is like the General Cornwallis version of political warfare. They sit around in their echo-chambered rooms and might as well put a powdered wig on their candidate. Everything is fake, pretense, manufactured and sold by the brightest consultants in the world as the stuff that “should work.” It’s genuinely hilarious!

Meanwhile, MAGA is an insurgency running circles around them, ducking and weaving through their ranks, and they are totally oblivious to it.

This image right here is almost literally who the people behind Ron DeSantis are. Not all of them, but overwhelmingly the majority of them are just like this disconnected insufferable bunch pictured above.

If that’s who they are, then WHO ARE WE?

We are scruffy, working class patriots engaged in the battle against them!

We are the workforce.

We are digital warriors, meme creators, artists, researchers, autists and ordinarily invisible people now considered dissidents in our own country.

We are the backbone of industry, the people who keep it all working, the builders, diggers and blue-collar workforce that keeps everything functioning. We are the people they will never fully control. We speak in languages they do not understand, and we absorb targeted ridicule as fuel.

We are the movers of goods, the truckers, the farmers, the nameless people behind the skilled trades that keep what they call American society moving.

We are the people who grow the food, pick the food, transport the food, stock the food, cook the food and facilitate the life they live. We are a visible, yet disregarded, insurgent force within their sphere of life that is never considered, yet we control the outcomes of every moment they value.

We pick up the trash, answer the phones, run cables to their devices, mow their lawns, solve their problems, control the flow of essential services and keep our heads below the radar.

We are the majority.

We are a self-reliant, freedom loving, normally peaceful and God-fearing assembly.

We drive them to their destination; we are comfortably out of mind until needed, and yet we are irreplaceable for the things they require.

We are armed with hammers, pens, rulers, mice, pickup trucks, laptops, post-it notes, stickers and alternate forms of messaging that circumvent the control mechanisms deployed to create our silence.

We are inside every facility, every institution, every meeting, every moment of their existence – and we notice everything.

We have eyes of eagles and ears of elephants. We are there when they do not expect, and we melt away before they notice our appearance.

We are smart, strategic, highly intelligent and carry a brutally obvious and pragmatic common sense that finds optimal solutions to everything.

We identify our tribe immediately and without conversation.

We see what they hide, we hear what they whisper, we decipher their codes, and we understand the complexity they create in their effort to conceal.

We control the physical world that operates around every element of society, and we value real and tangible assets.

We do not sit around pontificating eloquently about philosophic nuances; we get shit done.

We are the people who facilitate their ability to take us for granted, and we do so without issue, resentment or desire for recognition.

We are optimistic, affable, kind, generous, friendly, loyal, warm and quietly spiritual in purpose.

We are polite, considerate and slow to anger.

We prefer to be left alone. However, pushed entirely far enough, decisions are reached. Right now, we are tenuously staring with deepened gaze.

We are increasingly pissed off…. Big Time!

In every town, village and hamlet we are encountering the same conversation. On every porch, in every shop, at every event, the topic is the same.

Right now, we are taking this fury to the platforms of visibility where we hope to influence outcomes. But if that effort fails, and/or if the command-and-control authorities make the mistake of thinking they can shut down our visibility and therefore control the dissent, there will be no quarter provided in the aftermath.

The two biggest mistakes they can make right now is not understanding why we have begun to bow our heads.

First, our heads are not bowed because we are subservient, cowering or accepting the current effort to control us….

….We are praying!

Their second mistake would be to ignore that we are not praying for us…

….We are praying for those who trespass against us!

They may not like what follows, “Amen!”

We are resolute and of common purpose.