Category Germany

Sep 7 2022

Russia Shuts Down Nord Stream 1 Gas Pipeline, Gasprom Sends out Eerie Video ‘Winter is Coming’


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 6, 2022 | Sundance 

Well, it looks like it’s official now. After several days of sporadic reporting on Russia’s decision to shut down the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline into western Europe, it looks like the valves have been shut down until EU sanctions against Russia are removed.

Strategically the Nord Stream 1 pipeline is the major gas supply route into Germany, Europe’s largest economy. As noted by Reuters, “European gas prices, as measured by the benchmark Dutch TTF October gas contract, rose by as much as 30% on Sept. 5, amid growing fears of a total shutdown of Russian pipeline imports ahead of the European winter.”

Europe was already going into a deep economic recession due to inflation created by pre-existing green energy policy.  The Nord Stream shutdown will make things exponentially worse as energy prices skyrocket.  The Russian owned energy company Gasprom sent out a video that can be best described as psychological warfare.  WATCH:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=n2b_0gfV_4E%3Ffeature%3Doembed

.

Sep 7 2022

Wow, Europe Household Electric Bills Estimated to Jump by $2 Trillion Next Year, That’s 12% of Their GDP


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on September 6, 2022 | Sundance

What is predicted to happen in Europe is just stunning, literally stunning.

♦Context – According to official data from the World Bank, the combined Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the European Union was just over $17 trillion US dollars in 2021. That is the last calculated measure.  The combined GDP value of European Union represents roughly 12.78 percent of the world economy.

According to analysts for Goldman Sachs, the current energy crisis in Europe has increased electricity prices at a rate that is increasing almost daily.  Within the data it is now estimated that households within the EU will pay an additional $2 trillion for electricity in the next year.

Put that $2 trillion into context with their GDP, and that scale of energy cost would be wiping out 12% of the purchasing strength within the total EU economy.  Forget about buying anything else, if this analysis is correct Europeans will be buying food and energy, nothing else.

If you consider what that means, it is bordering on full economic collapse of western Europe.

What is being described above is what we posited when we outlined the impact of the “Energy Economy” {Go Deep}.  When you suck 12% of the purchasing power out of an economic engine simply to maintain the status of current energy use, everything else starts to collapse.

Also keep in mind we are only talking about the direct impact of $2 trillion in electricity cost.  The downstream consequence is far greater because everything created, produced, or manufactured, including food, is dependent on electricity – which will drive the final cost to produce of all those products even higher.

The damage is almost unimaginable in scale.

[Fortune] – European households should brace for an expensive winter owing to the continent’s deepening energy crisis that will likely send electricity and heating bills soaring.

Energy affordability in Europe is reaching a “tipping point” that could peak next year, with total spending on bills across the continent growing by 2 trillion euros ($2 trillion), a Goldman Sachs research team, led by Alberto Gandolfi and Mafalda Pombeiro, said in a note published Sunday.

Many European households are already feeling the bite of a steadily worsening energy crisis, brought on by Russian natural gas producers intermittently pausing flows along the critical Nord Stream pipeline following Western sanctions this year.

Energy bills at some restaurants and coffee shops have already more than tripled this year, but with threats looming that natural gas supply from Russia could become even tighter as the Ukraine War rages on, analysts warn that Europe’s coming struggles are set to rival some of the worst energy crises on record.

“The market continues to underestimate the depth, the breadth, and the structural repercussions of the crisis,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. “We believe these will be even deeper than the 1970s oil crisis.” (read more)

The economic contagion will not be isolated to Europe.

The impacts to the social fabric are also almost unquantifiable in scale.

Example: What happens to migration patterns when economic migrants are now considered a threat to scarce resources?

While the US is not quite in the same level of energy desperation, what we were discussing last week is an example of the problem we too may face.

Let’s say you are an average USA Main Street household with an income around $100,000/yr, and you now face an increase in electricity rates from $300 to $500 due to Joe Biden’s new national energy policy known as the Green New Deal.  That’s $200 more per month for this initial economic/energy “transition” moment.

That extra $200/month equates to $2,400 per year.

That $2,400 per year is static economic activity.  Meaning nothing additional was created, and nothing additional was generated.  The captured $2,400 is simply an increase in the price of a preexisting expense.

Take that expense and expand it to your community of 100 friends and family households.  The $2,400 now becomes $240,000 in cost that doesn’t generate anything.  $240,000 is removed from the community economy.  $240,000 is no longer available for purchasing other goods or services within this community of 100 households.

The economic purchasing power of the 100-household community is reduced by $240,000 per year.

Take that expense and expand it to your county of 10,000 households.  Now you are reducing the county economic activity by $24 million.  In this county of 10,000 households, $24 million in economic transactions have been wiped out.  Meals at restaurants, purchases of goods and services, or any other spending of the $24 million within the county of 10,000 households (approximately 25,000 residents) has been lost.

Now expand that expense to a larger county, quantified as a mid-size county, of 50,000 households.  The mid-sized county has lost $120 million in household economic activity, simply to sustain the status quo on electricity rates.  Nothing extra has been generated. $120 million is lost.  The activity within the county of 50,000 households shrinks by $120 million.

Expand that expense to a large county of 100,000 households, and the lost economic activity is $240 million.

Expand that expense to a small state of 1 million households (2.5 million residents), and the lost economic activity is $2.4 billion.

Expand that expense to a state with 5 million households (approximately 12 million residents) and the economic cost is $12 billion in lost economic activity unrelated to the expense of maintaining the status-quo on electricity use.   This state loses $12 billion in purchases of goods and services, just to retain current energy use.

These examples only touch on household expenses.  The community, county and state business expenses for offices, supermarkets, stores, etc. are in addition to the households quoted.

Meanwhile the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the community, county and state, remains static because the GDP is calculated on the total value of goods and services generated in dollar terms.  The appearance of a static GDP is artificial.  In real Main Street terms, $12 billion in economic activity is lost, but the price or increased value of electricity hides the drop created by the absence of goods and services purchased.

Fewer goods and services are purchased and consumed.  However, statistically the inflated price of electricity gives the illusion of a status quo economy.

Now expand that perspective to a national level and you can see our current economic condition.

All of this is being done under the justification of “climate change.”

Previously I would have said this level of economic impact in Europe would lead to a total revolt against the government.  However, with the backdrop of the recent COVID lockdowns and government control mechanisms in mind, and looking at the citizen compliance that took place in response to those government mandates, it is now more likely the citizens in Europe will simply bow to the energy control mechanisms of the governing authority.

It’s almost as if the COVID compliance effort was the test…

Sep 2 2022

Germans Stockpiling Firewood


Armstrong economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Sep 2, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

We are quickly reverting back to the Dark Ages. Cooking and keeping warm with fossil fuels may become a luxury as the energy crisis spreads across the West. Reports are growing from Germany that people are stockpiling firewood before the winter season. Google search results for “brennholz” (firewood) peaked this August in Germany as their government announced they would continue supporting Ukraine indefinitely.

Half of German homes are heated by natural gas, while a quarter uses oil. Less than 6% reported using firewood, but that is set to change as even firewood is now in a shortage. Germany’s Federal Firewood Association announced earlier in the summer that wood was becoming scarce. People are now importing firewood from Poland, but people there are also buying up firewood as no one can afford these rising prices. Governments are offering no solutions, and people have reason to fear the future.

Versorgungssicherheit is a word describing the fear of a shortage. Due to this fear, many companies are rationing the number of firewood bundles people are allowed to buy. The Federal Network Agency expects gas prices to TRIPLE by early 2023. The energy crisis spreading across the West will result in growing civil unrest and could trigger a major geopolitical event across Europe as people will be faced with hardships this winter not seen in a lifetime.

Aug 11 2022

The Rhine Drought


Armstrong Economics Blog/World Trade Re-Posted Aug 11, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The drought across Europe has caused substantial problems. In Germany, the Rhine has all but evaporated. Freights have been forced to reduce their loads across the river, but some are foregoing the route altogether. German authorities have not closed the river but are permitting shippers to cross at their own risk — and it is a risk many are not willing to take. Shipping vessels have been sailing half to a quarter full, according to Reuters, adding to the supply chain bottleneck. Numerous companies are shifting to railway transportation but that will take time.

Around 80% of all goods transported to Germany via waterways come through the Rhine and this passageway is crucial for all of Europe. The last major drought occurred in 2018, prompting German authorities to close the passage for 132 days, which nearly triggered a financial crisis. The water was at a low of 27 cm in October 2018, and water levels are quickly rescinding.

Authorities will try to deter another shipping halt, but there won’t be much they can do if the water levels continue to drop. Some estimate that the Rhine will be closed to ships as soon as Friday. The implications will be far worse than in 2018, as there was not a global supply chain shortage exacerbating inflation.

Jul 29 2022

First Major German City Turns Off Hot Water and Public Building Electricity to Save Gas


Posted originally on the conservative tree house on July 28, 2022 | Sundance 

Hanover, a city in the northwest of Germany, has become the first major metropolitan area to try and reduce the use of natural gas by removing hot water from public buildings.  The move comes as natural gas supplies from Russia are reduced to 20% of capacity.  Germany is attempting to fill up storage facilities of natural gas in order to survive the winter.

Germany, together with several European countries, are telling their citizens to expect large increases in their electricity bills as energy costs continue to skyrocket.

Germany does not have any LNG terminals to receive shipments of natural gas into ports, they are dependent on pipelines from Russia.  They are urgently trying to reduce the current amount of natural gas being consumed.

(Via Daily Mail) – […] Other desperate gas-saving measures include switching off public fountains and blacking out night-time lights on major buildings such as the town hall and museums. The city’s mayor, Belit Onay, spoke of an ‘imminent gas shortage’ that meant they had to reduce the city’s energy consumption by 15 per cent.

[…] There will also be a ban on portable air conditioners, heaters and radiators among the general populace as the average German begins to pay a price for standing up to the Russian dictator.

[…] Germany, like most of Europe, has been enjoying a hot summer which should soften the blow of the cold showers, but public officials are introducing the measures now in fear of what awaits them when the season turns.

Gazprom, the Russian state energy giant, has been giving European leaders sleepless nights by disrupting the flow of gas via its Nord Stream 1 pipe line.

They cut the flow to 40 per cent in June, citing maintenance issues, and this week they reduced the gas supply through the pipe to just 20 per cent.

These reductions, which EU energy chief Kadri Simson dismissed as ‘politically motivated’, have seen energy bills soar, governments struggle to fill gas storage facilities and energy-intensive heavy industries wondering if they can keep the factories running.

Russia denies that it is deliberately throttling supply to cause pain and instability in Europe, but few doubt that it is a deliberate ploy to punish what it calls ‘unfriendly countries.’

In response, European Union countries agreed to a controversial, bloc-wide 15 per cent reduction in gas usage on Tuesday that is hoped will reduce the pressure on European countries most vulnerable to Russian energy blackmail. (read more)

Jul 19 2022

Russia to Cut off Germany from Gas Thanks to Zelensky


Armstrong Economics Blog/Energy Re-Posted Jul 18, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

It is very interesting how Volodymyr Zelensky is doing whatever he can, not merely to destroy all of Europe, but to push the world into World War III because of his and Ukraine’s inherent hatred of Russians. He has told Justin Trudeau that Ukrainians would never accept Canada’s decision to return a gas turbine intended for a Russian pipeline because it would encourage more sanctions violations. Meanwhile, Gazprom has come out and stated that it could no longer guarantee its “good functioning” pipeline to Germany due to crucial turbines that are being held up in Canada because of sanctions.

Gazprom has declared extraordinary circumstances to void itself from all contractual obligations to Germany, whereby the gas flow to Europe will stop flowing indefinitely. Reuters reported a letter dated July 14, 2022. Zelensky thinks cutting gas supplies to Germany will force NATO to invade Russia. Kyiv will be the first to go before Zelensky can make it to his private jet to run off to enjoy the hundreds of millions he is stashing offshore.

Perhaps Germany should now invade Ukraine. It seems to be the only way to save Europe.

Our computer has been targeting here late July and August and high volatility and August as a Panic Cycle in some markets. But just about everything is going nuts into 2023. A quarterly closing above $6.25 in natural gas, which it has NOT been able to achieve this far, will confirm this is going to get much worse. Therefore, a September closing ABOVE $6.25 will be a serious warning for 2023. We had a rare Double Directional Change this quarter, so it looks like we have the most brain-dead crop of world leaders ever in human history and Zelensky, who I warned was the man who would create World War III.

Even NYC lost over 5,000 small businesses thanks to COVID. There isn’t a single decision these people are capable of making. It has reached the point that people who I know personally, who would be qualified to lead, are simply not interested due to the WOKE culture. We are simply headed into a politically created nightmare.

We see sharply higher volatility in August and the SIGNIFICANT risk of war coming in the first quarter of 2023. This is NOT something that is my personal opinion. The only thing that can actually target periods well in advance is an unbiased computer. It was Socrates that targeted 2008 as a Panic Cycle published back in 1999, which can be verified on the Wayback Machine. That was not only the Great Crash that set in motion negative interest rates theories, but it was the historical high in the euro.

Jul 7 2022

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Proactively Blames Russia for Pending Global Food Shortage


Step back for a minute and elevate the discussion to a bigger review.  In the past several months every single institution of policy making has stated, many emphatically, that a looming global food crisis is imminent.   No one is hedging on this point; everyone in the geopolitical system is in alignment saying there will be food shortages.

Joe Biden, NATO, the G7, the European Union, the World Bank, USAID, and every western leader in the United States and Europe has stated there will be food shortages.

They are not saying there might be shortages; their statements are emphatic, there will be shortages.

Accept this basic cornerstone.  Then ask why not a single proactive step has been taken by any of the aforementioned institutions or governments to alleviate what they declare is a certainty.  Why?

Simple question, “why?”

If all of the western nations, non-govt organizations and heads of state, are aware of a coming food crisis, why is there no proactive response?

It is a question that even the most hardcore leftists will not answer, because there is only one answer.  No action is being taken because they do not want to take action.  No effort to avoid the crisis is being done, because they do not want the crisis avoided.

Peel all the layers of obfuscation and causation away, and what we find is the epicenter of the food shortage is directly the result of the Build Back Better agenda.  A post-pandemic western government deliberate decision to radically change global energy development.  In succinct terms, the climate change agenda.

However, regardless of how you feel about the validity of “climate change,” the cause of diminished food supplies is purposeful.  It is not climate change causing food shortages. It is the purposeful action taken under the guise of mitigating climate change that is causing the shortage of food.

The collective Build Back Better energy policy of western governments’ is the reason for massive increases in energy costs, massive oil price jumps, gasoline price increases, significant increases in chemical costs, increases in diesel fuel costs, shortages of fertilizer created using natural gas, and the end result is lower crop yields, higher farming costs and eventually, food shortages.  They know this.

All of the organizations and government who have been decrying the future shortage of food, know it is the radical shift in energy resource development that is creating the crisis.  This acceptance of reality begins the framework to understand just how entrenched and committed these western leaders are toward their beloved climate change agenda.

We do not yet know the scale of food shortage, but we do know -and everyone admits- there will be severe shortages on a global basis.

Western leaders will not and cannot accept the blame for what they are doing.  So, they will blame-cast, excuse and justify what is likely to surface.

Food shortages will be blamed on the Ukraine conflict, Russian aggression, climate change and any various iteration of justification that does not identify the true cause, their energy ideology.

I’m not so sure that people fully understand what the entire system of western government would be willing to do to avoid being blamed for avoidable death on a potential scale that is quite alarming.  All of the western leaders, institutions and governments are on the same boat.   They are all in this together.

~ Deafening Drumbeats for War ~

~ Joe Biden Blaming Russia ~

Reminder, watch:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=-C3QiEah7mc%3Ffeature%3Doembed

.

….. You think that guy is going to take responsibility?   What would he do to avoid it?

July 6, 2022 | sundance 

Jun 20 2022

Britain Head of Military Tells Troops Prepare for WWIII


Armstrong Economics Blog/War Re-Posted Jun 20, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

Britain’s Military Chief of the General Staff had just taken that position and he has already told the army they need to prepare for war against Russia in Europe. He has told every soldier to prepare to fight Russia in a potential World War III. He has pledged to forge an Army that can beat Russia in battle and said that we must now prepare “to fight in Europe once again.” He added on  his fourth day on the job: “There is now a burning imperative to forge an Army capable of fighting alongside our allies and defeating Russia in battle.”

This is a video interview of Zelensky’s adviser years in advance. This entire Ukrainian War was deliberately instigated. The West NEEDS war because the entire financial system is collapsing. All the pensions promised have been wiped out in Europe thanks to NEGATIVE interest rates since 2014.

Zelensky is an actor. He is playing his role in this Great Reset which is to destroy Western civilization as we know it so they get to create their One-World Government and the United Nations will then appear to be the GREAT PEACEMAKER. On February 20th, 2022, VP Harris blurted out that Ukraine should join NATO which was a direct violation of the Belgrade Agreement where Ukraine, the 3rd largest nuclear power at the time, gave up its nuclear weapons and NATO promised not to invade as did Russia provided Ukraine was to remain NEUTRAL. Then 3 days later, Zelensky announced that he would pursue nuclear weapons to defend against Russia. The next day, Putin invaded to protect the Donbas on February 24th.

There are a number of world leaders who are starting to wake up and see that this entire Ukrainian War has been a hoax. This was intentionally created for the Great Reset because Europe NEEDS to default on all the debt they can no longer sustain. But that will wipe out all the pensions and millions of people will be storming the parliaments. The only escape for those in government is to create a war to hide the collapse. Now even Pope Francis is starting to see through this facade as he has told a group of European Jesuit news editors that “perhaps somehow either provoked or not prevented,” and he cautioned against oversimplifying the conflict.

Zelensky is a hateful, vindictive, and pathological liar who demonizes Russians every chance he gets.  The US has absolutely NO ability to even verify where all the weapons go that they send to Ukraine. There are reports of foreign soldiers who had volunteered to fight for Ukraine and then left because the weapons were being stolen and sold on the black market and will always, end up on the streets in America.

Zelensky is evil, and corrupt, and ran for office promising peace with Russia and ending corruption. Some reports say he has already diverted up to $850 million to hidden offshore accounts. He will fight till the last Ukrainian dies and then fly off to live the billionaire’s life drinking port with Klaus Schwab, George Soros, and Bill Gates.

The very person who funded Zelensky is the same person who bought Hunter Biden and President Joe Biden demanded that Ukraine fire the prosecutor investigating this corruption. Zelensky pathologically urges World War III during every one of his public appearances. Zelensky is clearly waging an information war promoting pure propaganda.

Zelensky’s Davos Speech was unbelievable. He demanded that the US-led West implement a policy of maximum preemptive sanctions on the false pretext of averting future wars. According to Zelen sky, had the US-led West’s cut off Russia completely from the world economy IN ADVANCE, this would somehow prevented war. He claimed that the sanction was NOT ENOUGH and cane TOO LATE. He wants the US-led West to now completely cut off from the world economy not just Russia, but regional security demands that the US-led West should unilaterally threaten other nations and impose maximum sanctions on all Russian allies BEFORE they can react.

I have videos captured from Ukrainian soldiers showing what they are doing to captive Russian soldiers. I will not post them because they are too horrible. They are actually crucifying Russians driving nails through their limbs and then setting them on fire alive. This is the hatred of Ukrainian neo-Nazis toward Russians and why the CIA protected the Ukrainian neo-Nazis because they always hated Russians. They massacred Jews and Polish but NOT one Ukrainian was ever put on trial at Nuremberg. This is now what we get for the failure to prosecute Nazis. The 72-year revolutionary cycle from the end of the Nuremberg Trial was 2018. Even this hatred has risen all over again and this time the US-led West is supporting the Nazis.

As I warned back in 2013, our computer had targeted Ukraine as the place where World War III would begin. I warned that Ukraine should have been split according to language. This area to the East was NEVER Ukrainian territory EVER in history. Khruschev grew up in the Donbas and he was in charge of rebuilding Kiev. When he became the head of Russia, in 1954 he assigned Crimea to Kiev for administrative purposes. The Duma later declared that illegal and reversed that decree.

Historically, the East was ALWAYS part of the Russian Empire BEFORE the USSR. This refusal to yield “one inch” to Russia which Zelensky has declared, is unsupported by history. That region is occupied by ethnic Russians who the Ukrainians will massacre. In Kyiv, they were saying in 2014 that Crimea is Ukrainian or it will be depopulated.

The hatred of Russians who have lived there for centuries is deeply rooted. The Ukrainians began their civil war against the Donbas and Russian-speaking Ukrainians immediately after overthrowing Yanukovich in 2014. They were beating Russian-speaking Ukrainian in Odesa and they fed to the Trade Union House. The Ukrainians then set the place on fire and killed them all burning them alive which the West turned a blind eye to because after all, they were evil Russians who obviously have no right to live on this earth.

Zelensky does his war propaganda always dressed in a military t-shirt. He has done nothing but promote world war III every chance he gets. His hatred of Russians knows no bounds and he will engulf the entire world in war all for what – territory? This man is so evil, that history will remember him along with those of the same mentality of sheer hatred and manipulations – Marx, Stalin, Hitler, and the list goes on.

As for those who see only one dimension, there was widespread support for animal welfare in Nazi Germany (German: Tierschutz im nationalsozialistischen Deutschland). Believe it or not, Adolf Hitler and his top officials took a variety of measures to ensure animals were protected. That obviously stood in contrast with killing the Jews, and gypsies and the Ukrainian Nazis added Polish and Russians to the list that needed to be ethnically cleansed. But somehow, Hitler protected the animals.

May 7 2022

An Important German Documentary on Ukraine


Armstrong Economics Blog/Ukraine Re-Posted May 7, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

This is a MUST-watch Documentary from a German journalist who has been on the ground. It is important to see the other side of events for anyone who only listens to one side, is denied the very idea of free thought.

A number of people asked to see an ECM on Zelensky himself. This lines up perfectly with the final wave for Ukraine as well between 2021 into 2025 where it is highly likely we will see war escalated post-2024. Zelensky got his staring role to pretend to be a comedian who became president in line with the ECM turning point 2016.75 which marked the peak in confidence in government globally. 2016 saw both Brexit and Trump win which were direct blows to the establishment.

May 3 2022

The Declaration for the Future of the Internet


Armstrong Economics Blog/BigTech Re-Posted May 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong

The internet has become the main source of social interaction, entertainment, and media. Almost everything we do is tied to the internet, which was once a free space. Governments across the world are now attempting to control the world wide web. In fact, the US, EU, and 32 other nations have announced a “Declaration for the Future of the Internet.”

The declaration claims to promote “interconnected communications” and “democracy, peace, the rule of law, sustainable development, and the enjoyment of human rights and fundamental freedoms.” They would like to make the internet accessible to everyone, and while this may sound good and well on the surface, the motive behind this declaration is to give governments full control over the internet.

The fine print reads:

“Over the last two decades, however, we have witnessed serious challenges to this vision emerge. Access to the open Internet is limited by some authoritarian governments and online platforms and digital tools are increasingly used to repress freedom of expression and deny other human rights and fundamental freedoms. State-sponsored or condoned malicious behavior is on the rise, including the spread of disinformation and cybercrimes such as ransomware, affecting the security and the resilience of critical infrastructure while holding at risk vital public and private assets.”

“Disinformation” is the new hot-button word for government censorship. Uncoincidentally, this declaration comes the same week that US President Biden arranged a “Disinformation Governance Board” with members who solely support his agenda and are willing to hide his lies. “Disinformation” allows governments to determine what is factual.

“Online platforms have enabled an increase in the spread of illegal or harmful content that can threaten the safety of individuals and contribute to radicalization and violence. Disinformation and foreign malign activity is used to sow division and conflict between individuals or groups in society, undermining respect for and protection of human rights and democratic institutions.”

Governments across the globe are on board with the Great Reset, and censoring society’s main medium of connectivity will provide them with the power to dumb down the masses and track the opposition. Countries that openly censor their internet such as Russia and China have not signed this declaration, as they do not care if their censorship is packaged in a nice collaborative declaration with other nations. At least the internet users in those nations are aware that what they read online is censored. The truth will always exist, but it will be harder to find it in the future.